Many have speculated that the Ducks will be a major player in the Mitch Marner sweepstakes. The All-Star winger is nearly guaranteed to hit the open market on July 1, and Anaheim has the third-most cap space in the league early in the offseason, according to PuckPedia.
That flexibility, plus a mandate from ownership to contend for a playoff spot next season, means they could offer Marner the most lucrative seven-year offer of any club this summer. James Mirtle of The Athletic reports Monday they’re considering offering him an AAV that would push north of the $14MM mark, making him the league’s highest-paid player starting next season.
Whether Marner is considering teams that aren’t currently established playoff contenders remains to be seen. Still, it’s hard to imagine any team, aside from the Blue Jackets and their $40.4MM in cap space, being willing to enter that range. Even an offer matching, not exceeding, Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl’s league-high $14MM cap hit comes in well north of his projected market value of just a shade under $13MM, according to AFP Analytics.
There will naturally be sticker shock when it comes to many deals this summer, with an 8.5% increase in the salary cap’s Upper Limit from $88MM to $95.5MM. Draisaitl’s mega-extension, which costs 14.66% of the cap when it starts next season, would be equivalent to a $12.9MM AAV had it gone into effect last year.
Any conversation about Marner pushing into the $14MM tier per season will result in direct comparisons between him and Draisaitl, especially with the latter’s extension being signed under a year ago and kicking in at the same time Marner’s next deal will. That’s where things will get hairy for Anaheim regarding public perception of the contract, even if acquiring a dynamic offensive threat of Marner’s caliber is a crucial long-term step in helping them return to relevance.
Draisaitl is one year Marner’s senior and had a two-year head start on him in beginning his NHL career, but the former wasn’t immediately thrust into top-six minutes like Marner was. Even still, Draisaitl’s career points per game rate of 1.21 dwarfs that of Marner’s 1.13.
The discrepancy between the two increases when putting them on equal footing regarding sample size. Draisaitl’s points-per-game rate increases to 1.32 from the beginning of Marner’s career in 2016-17. Over the past three seasons, Draisaitl has operated at a 120-point pace per 82 games compared to Marner’s 102.
The soon-to-be-former Maple Leafs winger has historically been a far more valuable player defensively than Draisaitl, but that changed this season, at least in terms of public perception. Draisaitl came one place ahead of Marner in Selke Trophy voting after posting career-best possession numbers (58.8 CF%, 61.2 xGF%) at even strength. While playoff production has far less impact on contract value, Draisaitl is in a different tier, with a 1.49 career points per game rate in the postseason compared to Marner’s 0.9.
Combine all that with Draisaitl playing a more traditionally valuable position, and it’s hard to imagine many other teams willing to match a $14MM offer for Marner if the Ducks make it, even if they technically have the resources to do so. Suppose he enters July 1 open-minded about his next destination. That discrepancy between Anaheim’s offer and whatever the second-best one is for him financially could be enough to tip the scales in the Ducks’ favor.
No one should make more then McDavid Mitchy is worth 13 or 14 but he is not the best in this league…
you miss the point
thAn–compAre
You are older thAn him.
thEn–timE
You ate and thEn drank water.
an overpay the ducks will regret making
Timing is everything.
3 years later: Ducks trade Marner; retain 25% salary. 2nd round pick is return.
I’m still not sold that Marner is the crown jewel of this years FA’s but if Anaheim wants to stick their neck out that far I say go for it. We still have no idea who the FA’s will be yet anyway. I think the Hawks for example can get way better value from a trade than a FA.
Whom do you think is, if not Marner?
I’ve made my case for Ekblad and Ehlers would be nice gets for the Hawks. If I could sign those 2 for what Marner is supposed to get I’d be a happy fan. And it would be a better use of the money IMO.
Alright, that makes sense. Granted, both Ehlers and Ekblad will themselves require overpaying to sign them, but I’d sure rather (say) drop $9 MM on Ehlers and still have that extra money left for a quality player than $15 MM on Marner. (No way $15 MM gets you both Ehlers and Ekblad.)
You might be right. But as I said before there’s nothing wrong with saying pass when it’s your turn to bet at the Poker Table. If there are 6 guys left in the game and you’ve got a pair of deuces you’re not bluffing everyone out of the game, Just fold. I would be just as happy probably if the Hawks don’t sign any FA and just maybe went the trade route. Maybe FA’s aren’t the best value this year. Hockey is cool though that you have the draft FIRST then FA hits. All openings are available to the Hawks. First they need to pick a lane as to what kind of team they want to be. Hopefully Blashill can do that. Then figure out what players you want. You have to start there first. Drafting the best talent available is fine. But at some point you have to pick a lane and drive in it til you get where you wanna go. IDK, Does that make sense? Getting Philosophical now. LOL. It’s not like I’d spit on Marner if he came here, But with everyone in the poker game still you’re odds aren’t really good.
As I’ve said before, the Hawks have to shore up the defense this offseason. Ekblad fills a void and has to be their priority…….even much more than Marner. I believe we’re in agreement that any contract marner signs this summer is going look pretty bad in 3 or 4 years.
Come to that, Chicago is in a good position to weaponize that cap space.
Mitch Marner is a really good player but he’s not deserving being paid as a top 10 player in the league which he is not. Am I surprised by this possibility?…No, not at all as the market is going to be overpriced & overvalued this year because of the cap increase. But one can’t blame Marner for capitalizing on the market’s discrepancy.
I don’t think anybody would BLAME Marner for taking the money and I certainly haven’t seen a post like that. FA is for want of a better description Rich Man’s Fantasy Sports. Not all of them but it’s kind of hilarious when you realize that most of the teams who go all in this year will be trying to dump those same deals 3 years from now when something better comes along and they have no money. I’m just saying there is nothing wrong with saying pass when the betting comes around to your spot at the poker game. Odds are in 2 years you’ll be going Whew, That could have been me.
Marner will be the highest paid player in the league this coming season. Then in two years when the cap goes up by $18 million, he’ll be in the top 20. Everything is relative.
A top 5 scorer who gets Selke votes AND is a UFA?
Sounds like a guy who is going to get a record breaking AAV.
Leo to Marner to Cutter, Score!
Hate to say it as a Kings fan, but this makes a lot of sense for the Ducks and they’ll have to overpay to get him to come there.
Was hoping the Kings could grab him, but they can’t afford to go to that range in salary.
I’ve been figuring for a while that someone’s going to offer Marner 7 x 15. Of course they’ll live to regret it — most teams that give max term to ANYone do — but it’ll happen.
My fear too.
makes sense. a man who acts like a child signing close to Disney.
if the ducks want to pay 14 per, good luck to you.
Of the 32 GMs, how many do you think you’re better than at this job?
did I say I was better than any of them? but Im also not managing an NHL team for my job.
also not sure what my comment has to do with your retort?
You’re saying you wouldn’t sign him at 14 mil. Doesn’t this imply you’re better than the Ducks GM at acquiring talent at a better deal?
Wouldn’t signing in Toronto near Canada’s Wonderland be equal to Disney in Anaheim?
if you are comparing Wonderland to Disney you need to sit this one out there champ.
and again $14m for the ducks who need to get better may be worth it. he’s a good player, I never said he wasn’t. but he has shown time and again he acts childish when he faces mounting pressure and can’t step his game up in the playoffs.
if I was a gm of a playoff team, I’m not sure I’d want that for that much. but if I was a gm of a team who just wants to sniff the playoffs to save my job, take the chance.
If a tree falls in the woods in Anaheim…
He has shown like Mathews They can’t handle being the guy.
Given that Mitch will be signing in a double-digit income tax state if he goes to Anaheim… keep an eye on zero income tax Seattle.
Bottom line. A player is worth whatever an Incompetent GM is willing to pay them.
Remember when people talked about the GAME of hockey?
Remember when people talked about
the GAME of hockey?