Johnston: “Zero Reason” To Believe Mitch Marner Signs Extension With Maple Leafs

Regardless of his lack of postseason success, Mitch Marner has done enough to go down as one of the better players in Maple Leafs franchise history. But as the end of his six-year, $65.41MM contract looms, it’s almost a certainty the top pending unrestricted free agent will indeed test the market this summer, writes Chris Johnston of The Athletic.

When Marner reportedly declined to waive his no-movement clause in a deal at the deadline that would have sent him to the Hurricanes for Mikko Rantanen, some believed he did so in hopes of continuing extension talks with Toronto. That wasn’t necessarily the case, Johnston notes. While the Leafs were interested in in-season extension talks, Marner’s camp has refused to negotiate during the campaign.

“There’s been a growing sense that the 28-year-old winger wants a fresh start after enduring an avalanche of criticism for his team’s repeated playoff shortcomings,” Johnston writes. The dynamic playmaker and longtime Auston Matthews linemate is coming off a career-high 75-assist, 102-point performance in the regular season. He’s still over a point per game in this year’s playoffs (2-10–12 in 11 GP), but he’s gone without a point in back-to-back contests in the second round as the Panthers have won three straight to erase and reverse Toronto’s 2-0 series lead. The Leafs now enter a must-win scenario on the road against the defending Stanley Cup champions tonight.

Most believe general manager Brad Treliving’s top offseason priority is reserving cap space for pending restricted free agent Matthew Knies, and for good reason. The 22-year-old power forward had 29 goals and 58 points in 78 regular-season games alongside Matthews and Marner and is averaging nearly 21 minutes per game in the playoffs with five goals. They’d presumably like to get it done quickly to remove the threat of an offer sheet. That leaves the Leafs, who have just five goals from their bottom-six forwards in terms of ice time in the playoffs, with little maneuverability to add scoring depth if big-ticket extensions are handed out to both Knies and Marner (let alone second-line center John Tavares).

As for Marner, it’s not yet clear where he’d be interested in signing this summer. It likely won’t be until after Toronto’s postseason run ends. It’s almost guaranteed he’ll earn a raise of at least $2MM per season on his current $10.9MM cap hit on a max-term deal, though. His 520 assists since he entered the league in 2016-17 are fifth in the NHL behind Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, and Artemi Panarin.

There’s a legitimate chance Tavares is gone for no return this summer as well, Johnston writes. It’s less likely than Marner’s departure at this stage – after all, he’s been open to in-season extension talks, unlike Marner. Retaining the 34-year-old, who’s coming off a 74-point season, on a short-term deal does allow the Leafs to get more creative by replacing Marner’s scoring by committee on the wings because they don’t have to worry about finding a new second-line anchor, at least for now.