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Mikael Granlund

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Nashville Predators.

It’s been an up-and-down year in Nashville for a team that had such high expectations. For a while, the team was floundering near the bottom of the Central Division. The team fired long-time head coach Peter Laviolette and replaced him with John Hynes. While the results have been slow-going, Nashville seems to be moving up in the standings. Suddenly, just one point out of a playoff spot, the Predators look like a team that could make a playoff run after all. That puts general manager David Poile in an interesting position at the trade deadline. Should he buy, stand still, or maybe even sell?

Record

30-23-8, fifth in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Slight Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$11.517MM in a full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2020: NAS 1st, NJD 2nd, NAS 2nd, MIN 3rd, NAS 3rd, NAS 5th, NAS 6th
2021: NAS 1st, NAS 2nd, NAS 3rd, NAS 4th, NAS 5th, NAS 6th

Trade Chips

One name seen often as a trade deadline candidate is Mikael Granlund. The winger was brought over from Minnesota to give the team another experienced and gifted top-six forward. However, that hasn’t happened as he struggled with a goal and five assists in 16 games with the team last season. It wasn’t much better early on as he had six goals and 14 points through 35 games under Laviolette, which has had a lot to do with the rumors. However, Granlund seems to have found his game under Hynes. He has nine goals and three assists in those 20 games. Regardless, the 27-year-old who will be an unrestricted free agent next year, still may not be the best fit in Nashville’s system and could be a target for teams that believe he’d be a better fit in their system.

Craig Smith is a somewhat different story. Also a UFA next summer, Smith could be a potential trade candidate if the team feels they can’t re-sign him, although it’s just as possible that Nashville locks him up in the near future as well. Smith has turned it on of late with six goals in his past eight games. He could be part of a package for an upgrade, if the team is ready to move on from him.

The team could find itself bringing in help on defense as the team needs depth, especially with their third pairing. It wouldn’t be surprising if the team moved one of those defenders to send back for an upgrade on defense as well, such as Dan Hamhuis, Yannick Weber or Matt Irwin.

Nashville has most of their picks, but have two second and two third-rounders in this upcoming draft. That might be the ammunition to acquire a player they covet. The team also has a few prospects and while it’s unlikely they would move their top prospect forwards in Philip Tomasino, or Eeli Tolvanen there are a number of other prospects who could interest a team, such as forward Egor Afanasyev or defenseman Jeremy Davies in the right deal.

Five Players To Watch For: F Egor Afanasyev, F Mikael Granlund, D Dan Hamhuis, F Craig Smith, D Yannick Weber

Team Needs

1) Top-Four Defenseman: Despite having one of the best top-four pieces in the NHL before this season started, the Predators knew they here hoping for a lot when they traded P.K. Subban and handing his role to rookie Dante Fabbro. He has had an up-and-down year, but injuries to other members of the top-four, including Ryan Ellis, has forced their third pairing players to move into the top four at times, which has been a disaster, which means the team could really use another top-four blueliner and move Fabbro down a notch on the depth chart. Many feel that New Jersey’s Sami Vatanen could be a good fit here.

2) Upgrade In Top-Six: The Predators have two potential unrestricted free agents in Granlund and Smith coming up and with cap considerations, they might be better off packaging them to another team in hopes of getting a forward with term that can help them both this year and in the future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Mikael Granlund

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue to profile players that have a good chance to be dealt by February 24th.

Last season, the Nashville Predators made a big splash at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Mikael Granlund from Minnesota.  They had been looking for one basically all season long and it wasn’t even a rental situation.  Things were looking up, or so it seemed.

Granlund struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs last year and things haven’t gone too well for this season either.  Between that and the fact that Nashville needed a couple of wins this week just to stay out of the basement of the Central Division, it seems quite likely that he’ll on the move over the next few weeks.  Even if the Predators can stay close to the playoff picture, he could still be on the move due to his rather limited production on the team as his money could be better spent elsewhere.

Contract

Granlund is in the final season of a three-year, $17.25MM deal that he signed back in August of 2017.  The deal was slightly back-loaded as his salary this season is $6.5MM, $750K higher than his $5.75MM AAV.  He will become an unrestricted free agent in July.

2019-20

While he has performed better than he did after being acquired, Granlund has still underwhelmed, especially relative to his production in his final years with Minnesota.  Despite playing in the top six basically all season long (including more than two minutes a night on the power play), his point per game output is the lowest of any full season of his career.  The 27-year-old has a well-earned reputation for being a playmaking forward and has recorded at least 31 assists in each full season of his career.  However, Granlund has just eight helpers on the season and has gone more than a month and a half without one.  That pretty much sums up how disappointing his season has been.

Season Stats

44 GP, 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points, -1 rating, 16 PIMS, 90 shots, 17:05 TOI, 55.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

Despite his struggles since joining Nashville, there will be several teams that look at Granlund’s body of work with Minnesota and think that a change of scenery can help get him going again.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that a $5.75MM price tag is going to limit the number of trade options; even if Nashville retains (they can hold back up to 50%), he’s still going to be too expensive for some of the cap-strapped contenders.

In the East, the Islanders stand out as a team that would be a good fit.  They are in the bottom ten in the league in goals scored and have a few players capable of scoring more than they have been.  Yes, adding another underachiever into the mix is risky but Granlund’s overall track record suggests he’d give them a boost at the very least.  They’re one of the only playoff contenders that can afford his contract outright as well.  Lightning GM Julien BriseBois isn’t bullish on adding a rental player but Granlund could fit in well with their high-skilled attack in a middle-six role.   And of course, when it comes to making splashes at the deadline, the Penguins can’t be counted off though they would need Nashville to retain some money or send a contract or two the other way.  Pittsburgh has a clear vacancy to fill with Jake Guentzel out long term and Granlund is one of the more skilled forwards that’s available.

Out West, Flames GM Brad Treliving would prefer to add someone that’s signed beyond this season but if that falls through, Granlund would be a nice pickup for their top six and give them some extra skill in that group.  However, the Michael Frolik deal last month doesn’t free up enough cap space alone to add Granlund so there would need to be some retention.  The Avalanche are still one of the top teams in the league offensively but they have plenty of short-term cap room to work with and this is a year they should be trying to go for it so don’t be surprised if they still look to bolster their attack.

Likelihood Of A Trade

While the return isn’t going to be anywhere near what it would have been perceived to be a year ago, GM David Poile has all but certainly decided that Granlund won’t be staying past this season and that his money will go elsewhere on the open market.  In this case, getting something is better than nothing, even if they wind up turning around and acting as a buyer to get a short-term replacement for him.  Barring injury or a rapid turnaround, it’s hard to envision him still being in Nashville past February 24th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Can The Predators Make The Playoffs?

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Matt Duchene, the Nashville Predator’s blockbuster free agent addition of this past summer, remains very confident in his new team, despite how their season is going. Duchene, in the first season on a seven-year, $56MM contract, is one of a number of under-performing players on the Nashville roster. The team has not played up to expectations this year, which has already cost head coach Peter Laviolette his job and now threatens to cost the team a trip to the postseason. Yet, Duchene believes the team has what it takes to turn their season around and qualify. He told the media on Monday that he feels that Nashville is a playoff team and, to double down, he does not think they need to make a move ahead of the forthcoming NHL Trade Deadline.

It’s a mighty big prognostication from a player who has been part of the problem and not the solution for the Predators this year. Duchene is on pace for just 56 points this season, which would be among the worst years of his career, when he was supposed to be shine on a talented Nashville roster. He’s not alone; Filip Forsberg (59 points), Ryan Johansen (47), Viktor Arvidsson (40), Kyle Turris (36), and Mikael Granlund (30) are all on pace to finish well below what has come to be expected of them. On top of that, veteran starter Pekka Rinne and young backup Juuse Saros are both experiencing the worst campaigns of their careers. Nearly all of Nashville’s key pieces outside of Roman Josi have disappointed to this point in the season, leaving them in the basement of the Central Division and among the worst teams in the league in a number of categories.

Yet, maybe Duchene has a point. A closer look would imply that perhaps Nashville is more than their current last-place position in the Central Division. With substantial games in hand on Minnesota, Chicago, and Winnipeg, the Predators’ .543 points percentage before Monday night’s game is actually fourth-best in the division. Beyond that, while the Preds currently trail the Vegas Golden Knights by six points for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference, they are really just .005 points percentage points behind. Nashville actually seems to be well-positioned to compete for a spot. Also strange is the seeming lack of correlation between the number of underachieving core producers on the Predators and the actual state of their offense. At 3.30 goals for per game, the team is tied for seventh-best in the league in offense so far this season, even if only Josi is among the top scorers at his position.

With all that said, there is no hiding the fact that the Predators have been poor defensively and on special teams this season, their goaltending situation is shaky at best, and their best forwards have not risen to the occasion all year. Will the returns of Ryan Ellis and Colton Sissons be enough to boost the team? Can their struggling stars turn things around without help?

We already know how Duchene would vote, but what say you? Can the Predators make the playoffs?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Predators Looking To Trade Mikael Granlund

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Last season, Mikael Granlund being traded at the deadline was one of the bigger surprises around the league.  One year later, it seems like he’s going to be on the move again and this time, it won’t be as much of a surprise.  Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that the Predators are looking to move the pending unrestricted free agent.

When Nashville acquired him last season, the 27-year-old looked like he was on his way to his third straight 60-point season which was going to set him up well for contract extension talks with the Predators.  Instead, he had just a single goal in 16 regular season games with the team while adding only one in the playoffs in their first round loss to Dallas.

Instead of Granlund being the extra punch to their attack like they hoped, they had to trade P.K. Subban to New Jersey to free up the cap room to add Matt Duchene in free agency.  Still, with a full training camp under his belt, the hope was that he’d rebound and become the impact player that he was with Minnesota.  With eight goals and eight assists in 41 games, he has been a little better than the stretch run a year ago but nowhere near the level that he has played at before.

Not surprisingly, it seems as if Nashville has no interest in engaging in any extension talks which is probably the best for both sides.  With the Predators on the outside looking in, moving him now makes sense while Granlund will be banking on a change of scenery helping him rediscover his form and aiding his free agency case.  As things stand, it seems unlikely that he’ll be beating his current $5.75MM AAV on the open market.

Unfortunately for the Predators, given Granlund’s struggles, it’s doubtful that they’ll be able to land a return comparable to what they gave up to get him in the first place in winger Kevin Fiala who actually has out-produced Granlund so far this season.  A year ago, this looked like a great pickup for Nashville and one that could be a longer-term piece.  But it hasn’t come close to working out and over the next month, it’s almost certain that he’ll be dealt once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Williams, Granlund, Cousins

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When Justin Williams decided to go back to the Carolina Hurricanes after his semi-retirement, it was on a minimum salary of $700K (prorated for the rest of the season). That deal comes with plenty of potential performance bonuses however, and Chris Johnston of Sportsnet broke them down today. Williams can earn:

  • $150K for 10 games played
  • $100K for 20 games played
  • $250K if team makes the playoffs
  • $100K for each round team wins in round 1-3
  • $250K if team wins the Stanley Cup
  • $250K if Williams wins the Conn Smythe

Those bonuses are cumulative, meaning Williams could earn an extra $1.3MM if things go (extremely) well. Not a bad payday for a player who hasn’t seen any action since last spring when the Hurricanes lost in the Eastern Conference Finals.

  • Though Mikael Granlund wasn’t included in Craig Custance’s trade board today for The Athletic, colleague Adam Vingan was quick to point out on Twitter that the forward has not had any contract negotiations with the Nashville Predators yet. Granlund is in the final season of a three-year, $17.25MM deal signed when he was still with the Minnesota Wild, and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
  • While the Department of Player Safety considers the punishment for Ryan Lindgren, they’ve handed out a $2,688.17 fine (the maximum allowable amount) to Nick Cousins for his boarding incident last night. The Montreal Canadiens forward pushed Detroit Red Wings defenseman Mike Green from behind and sent him hard into the boards. Though he won’t be suspended for the incident, Cousins will see harsher punishments in the future thanks to the fine.

Western Notes: Arvidsson, Granlund, Demers, Glass

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The Nashville Predators expect to get two big returns to their lineup Saturday as the forward’s Viktor Arvidsson and Mikael Granlund are expected back, according to NHL.com’s Matt Kalman. Both have been out with lower-body injuries, but the hope is that both players will boost Nashville’s struggling team.

Arvidsson has missed 12 games over four weeks. He was originally estimated to be out for four to six weeks, which means he will return at the early part of the estimation. The 26-year-old started strong with six goals and 15 points in 22 games. Granlund, on the other hand, has missed four straight games with a lower-body injury as well. Granlund has four goals and 12 points in 28 games.

  • The Athletic’s Craig Morgan reports that Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jason Demers was a full participant in practice Saturday and while he is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against Detroit, but is expected to be re-evaluated on Monday against Nashville. This is a quick turnaround for Demers who underwent a minor procedure on his knee just two weeks ago.
  • Vegas Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant said that while forward Cody Glass is closing in on a return, he will not play in their back-to-back games against San Jose and Colorado Sunday and Monday, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen. Glass, who has been out since Dec. 8 with a concussion, skated Saturday in a non-contact jersey, suggesting he’s close to returning. That could suggest that the rookie could make his return Friday vs. Anaheim.
  • The Minnesota Wild hope to get back a player as well. Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan reports that center Joel Eriksson Ek should be able to return at some point next week. The 22-year-old has been out with an upper-body injury for the past week and is expected to practice with the team on Sunday. Eriksson Ek has two goals and 12 points in 30 games this season.

Injury Notes: Kulikov, Keith, Granlund

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As if the Winnipeg Jets needed any more concerns on the blue line, yet the team’s short-handed defense corps was dealt another blow on Tuesday. Head coach Paul Maurice announced that Dmitry Kulikov has suffered an upper-body injury that is expected to leave him sidelined for upwards of two months. Maurice expects the veteran defender to return after the All-Star break in late January. Kulikov suffered the injury, speculated to be related to his left arm, on Friday night and did not play Saturday. However, there was hope that he would return to the lineup shortly, but that will not be the case. Kulikov, 29, had been enjoying a bit of a career resurgence early this year after dealing with injuries in each of this past three seasons. The former Panthers standout is third among Jets starting defensemen in time on ice and first in Corsi For, while leading the entire team in blocked shots. Personally, Kulikov was also on pace for the highest point total of his stint in Winnipeg. However, it now appears that it could be more of the same for the physical, but fragile rearguard. With Nathan Beaulieu already injured and the team still coping with the absences of Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot, Kulikov’s loss is a major blow for the Jets. Winnipeg has held their own to this point in the season, but one has to wonder when their luck will run out considering their depleted blue line.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks are another team dealing with a slew of injuries. So much so in fact that they were forced to ice only eleven forwards and six defensemen on Monday night after a roster full of short-term injuries and a sick goalie necessitated the call-up of AHL keeper Kevin Lankinen without enough room to make any other additions. While Robin Lehner is back on his feet, one of those other injured players is going to be out for a while longer. Blackhawks beat writer Carter Baum reports that top pair defenseman Duncan Keith is expected to miss at least another two games with a lingering groin injury. Keith will not travel with the team on their two-game road trip, extending what has already been a two-game absence. Groin injuries tend to stick around, so Keith could remain sidelined beyond the next two games and could also deal with the issue throughout the season. It’s a difficult situation for Chicago, who desperately needs their ice time leader and defensive mainstay to be active as much as possible if they wish to push for a playoff spot this season.
  • Kyle Turris is back in the lineup for the Nashville Predators, but not because head coach Peter Laviolette has changed his mind about the under-performing veteran. Instead, Turris has drawn in to replace Mikael Granlund. The Predators announced just prior to their game on Tuesday night that Granlund would not be in the lineup and is considered day-to-day with an undisclosed lower-body injury. Not much is known about Granlund’s status as of yet, but an extended absence could very well cost him his spot as a top-six forward for the team. Granlund has just 11 points in 26 games, only two more points than Turris has in 19 games. Granlund has been a disappointment since coming over from Minnesota last season, but even if Nashville has no intention of re-signing him, the impending free agent has ample incentive to get healthy and try to find his way back to an elite level of play.

 

Minimal Talks Between Nashville And Their Pending UFAs

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The Predators presently have nine players on their active roster that are slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  Three of those players – defenseman Roman Josi plus wingers Mikael Granlund and Craig Smith – are impact pieces for Nashville but as Craig Custance of The Athletic reports (subscription required), talks about extensions have been limited thus far.

Understandably, their primary focus is getting a deal done with Josi, their captain.  He’s currently playing on one of the best bargain contracts in the league with a $4MM cap charge which is well under market value for someone that has recorded at least 40 points and averaged more than 24 minutes per night over each of the last six seasons.  He’s off to a flying start in 2019-20 as well with 10 points in as many games while once again logging more than 24 minutes of ice time per contest.  While the 29-year-old has suggested in the past that he’s open to taking a bit of a discount to stay with the Predators, he should still at least be doubling his current AAV on a new deal.  There was some discussion going back to the offseason but it doesn’t seem as if a lot of progress was made.

Granlund is in his first full season with Nashville and that in itself is stalling contract talks as both sides are still evaluating the fit.  He wasn’t overly productive after being acquired from Minnesota at the deadline last season (just two goals and five assists in 23 games between the regular season and playoffs) and is off to a slow start this season as well with two goals and two helpers in ten games.  However, he isn’t far removed from back-to-back 67-plus point seasons in 2016-17 and 2017-18 and his ability to play center (despite being used predominantly on the wing with the Predators) makes him one of the more prominent forwards that will be available.  Custance suggests that if the team can find a way to get out of Kyle Turris’ contract ($6MM through 2023-24), that might help get talks for Granlund, who carries a $5.75MM AAV, going.

As for Smith, his performance over the years has been a bit more erratic.  There are times where he looks like a legitimate top liner but others where he has produced at the level of a third liner.  He’s not off to a great start this season either with just a goal and an assist.  Nonetheless, with five seasons of 20 goals or more under his belt, he should be in line for a raise on his current $4.25MM cap hit.  Custance mentions that Smith loves it in Nashville and would likely be willing to sign for under market value to stay there but at this time, both sides appear to be okay with letting the season play out and evaluate things at the end of the season.

Other pending unrestricted free agents in Nashville include wingers Auston Watson, Miikka Salomaki, and Rocco Grimaldi as well as blueliners Dan Hamhuis, Matt Irwin, and Yannick Weber.  With that many players needing new contracts, GM David Poile will certainly have his work cut out for him over the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $73,541,089 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Kunin (one year, $925K)
F Jordan Greenway (one year, $917K)
F Nico Sturm (one year, $874K)

Potential Bonuses

Kunin: $600K
Greenway: $500K

Kunin and Greenway will both have to earn their way onto the team this year, but both have legitimate shots at making the team as a potential third line forward. Kunin showed some promise last season, playing in 49 games and scoring six goals and 11 points, although he will have to take his game up a notch to stay there. Greenway, on the other hand, scored 12 goals over 81 games, picking up 24 points, but the former Boston University star, has the potential for a breakout season for the Wild.

Sturm was the team’s big signing this offseason as he was considered to be one of the top unrestricted free-agent college forwards this year and choose to ink a deal with Minnesota. He scored 36 goals over three seasons at Clarkson University, and while he could make the team out of training camp, he might need a year of seasoning in the AHL as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikko Koivu ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.18MM, UFA)
F J.T. Brown ($688K, UFA)

At 36 years of age, this could be his final year with Minnesota, although much of that decision will depend on how his final season will turn out. The captain was having a solid season with eight goals and 29 points in 48 games, but his season was cut short in February when he went down with a torn ACL and torn meniscus in his right knee. The team can only hope that Koivu bounces back from his injury and is ready to go as the season opens.

Spurgeon, on the other hand, is coming off another impressive season with the Wild and while there had been rumors of Minnesota looking to move their 29-year-old defensive star, the team also hasn’t gotten very far in locking him up this summer as he is eligible to sign an extension. With so much money tied into veteran players, the real question is whether there will be money left to sign Spurgeon to a new deal or whether he wants to stay. If no deal can be made, Spurgeon could be a valuable trade chip at the trade deadline.

Two Years Remaining

G Devan Dubnyk ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Jonas Brodin ($4.17MM, UFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($2.88MM, UFA)
D Greg Pateryn ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($1.49MM, RFA)
D Nick Seeler ($725K, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($700, UFA)

A lot of the Wild contracts are set with two years remaining, which could make for an interesting offseason in two years, considering that a number of their young players and key pieces will come up at the same time. The team must decide over the next two years is Dubnyk will continue to be the goaltender of the future down the road. He’ll be 35 at that point and he will have to prove he’s still a top-line goaltender. Dubnyk has had two solid seasons over the past two years. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.54 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 67 games.

Brodin is another candidate, whose status could be determined by what happens with Spurgeon. The 26-year-old has been a solid defensive presence and a top-four performer, but will have to prove that he is in the team’s long-term plans. If the team signs Spurgeon, it might have to move on from Brodin to save some of its cap room, but the team still has two years to sort it out. After two impressive seasons with Minnesota, Staal’s play dropped a little last year as he managed just 22 goals after tallying 70 in his first two years with the Wild. However, at 36, the team hopes he can still provide enough offense to lead the team and eventually take more of a middle-six role in the future.

The team also has a number of youngsters who will still be restricted free agents, but a breakout year from Hartman, Eriksson Ek or Donato could make any of them an expensive contract in two years. Hartman was brought in to provide a combination of scoring and grit to the team’s bottom-six, while both Eriksson Ek and Donato are both young pieces that the team hopes can move into their top-six within the next two years. Eriksson Ek has struggled since reaching the NHL, scoring just seven goals last season in 57 games, while Donato had stalled in Boston before breaking out after the Wild picked him up at the trade deadline. Donato picked up 16 points in 22 regular season games with Minnesota.

Three Years Remaining

F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)

Unfortunately, one trade that brought out the wrath of fans was the trade in which now former GM Paul Fenton sent underachieving Nino Neiderreiter to Carolina for Rask. While taking Rask back was part of the deal to match salaries to a certain extent, Neiderreiter established himself as a top-six player in Carolina, while Rask struggled even more. The 26-year-old Rask finished the season with just three goals, two while in Minnesota and there remain questions about what role Rask will play this season. While many have him penciled in as the team’s fourth-line center, there is a legitimate possibility that he could lose find himself buried in the AHL if he can’t rebound and put together a better season. That shouldn’t be too hard. He did score 51 goals over the previous three seasons, so there is potential. As for Stalock, the team has a reliable backup at a very friendly price, but could easily cut him loose if the team can find a better option in net over the next three years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Zach Parise ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Suter ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM through 2023-24)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM through 2022-23)

The matching contracts of Parise and Suter are starting to be felt in Minnesota. While both players are still providing solid play, the fact that Parise is 35 and Suter will be 35 in January, could start to be worrisome to fans as they each have six mores seasons left and their play could start declining soon. Parise has dealt with injuries for the past few years although he only missed eight games last season. However, before being fired, Fenton did look into the possibility of trading off Parise, but the pair were brought to Minnesota in 2012 to win a championship and with many people not picking them to even reach the playoffs this year, their usefulness might be at an end unless Minnesota can reshape its roster into a winner sooner than many have been expected.

With what many people thought was a rebuilding phase coming, many people were thrown off when the team signed the 32-year-old Zuccarello to a five-year deal, giving them another high-priced veteran on the team. However, Zuccarello is a solid playmaker who should make a big impact on the Wild’s top-six. He was impressive in the playoffs for the Dallas Stars, scoring four goals and 11 assists in 13 games last year. Zucker has been another player rumored to be on the move after a 33-goal move in 2017-18 and a decline to 21 goals last year. However, the team can only hope that Zucker can return to his 30-goal ways. Regardless, even with a new GM in Minnesota, the team might also have a great trade chip if the team wants to move out a contract.

With the exception of a fight that cost him a good chunk of the season, Dumba has established himself as a first-line defenseman, scoring 12 goals and 22 points in just 32 games after a 50-point season the previous year. Finally healthy, Dumba should step up and be one of the team’s top players on the blueline and could be a bargain over the next few years if he continues to develop his game.

Buyouts

F Tyler Ennis ($1.22MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Kevin Fiala

The key to Fenton’s tenure will be how Fiala fares. The team unloaded Mikael Granlund in an attempt to bring Fiala in, a young and talented winger. The 23-year-old posted 23 goals and 48 points in 2017-18, but struggled out of the gate in Nashville, posting just 10 goals and 32 points before the trade. In Minnesota, he scored three goals and seven points in 19 games and will have to prove that he was worth the trade. Of course, the Wild must find a way to sign him and might be forced to use a bridge deal to bring him in.

Best Value: Dumba
Worst Value: Parise

Looking Ahead

The Wild are not necessarily expected to make a big impact on the Central Division considering the division is loaded with top teams and might be the most challenging one in the league. However, the team has a number of young players who could take that next step this year and the team will need that if they want to compete in the Central. Of course, the Wild must also avoid injuries, which have ravaged the franchise for the last few years. Their high-priced veterans must stay healthy and continue to contribute at a high level for the next few years or Minnesota will be in even bigger trouble.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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