Is Gustav Nyquist A Scapegoat For Detroit’s Problems?
When Gustav Nyquist was called up for good in 2013-14, he made sure that Detroit wouldn’t send him back to Grand Rapids. In what was the first of many injury ravaged seasons for the Red Wings, Nyquist went on an absolute tear, scoring 28 goals and 48 points in just 57 games, setting the bar high in terms of expectations. Nyquist followed up in 2014-15 with 27 goals and 54 points. From there, however, Nyquist has fallen off in terms of overall production. In 2015-16, he had 17 goals and 43 points, and had a goal in five playoff games. This year has seen similar results on the score sheet, as Nyquist has only one goal in his last 27 games.
The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James suggests that the Wings begin benching players to send a message as Detroit dawdles near the bottom of the Atlantic Division. Detroit is 14-15-4 and failing to score goals, have an inefficient power play, and cannot keep pucks out of their net. St. James begins with the idea of possibly sitting Nyquist, who St. James has written about before in terms of his lack of production. However, a deeper dive shows that Nyquist should not be the first player benched by Jeff Blashill.
Winging It In Motown’s Prashanth Iyer argues through a series of tweets that Nyquist’s value to the Red Wings is beyond just goal scoring. Though he is one of the higher paid Red Wings, Nyquist’s value is seen on the ice because of what he produces in both goals and assists. Additionally, the team sees a jump in production with Nyquist skating. Iyer begins with this idea, tweeting that Nyquist ranks 35th in 5v5 points per minutes played, which leads all players on the Detroit roster. This is also higher than stars like Alex Ovechkin, and Artemi Panarin. A harder look beyond just goals reveals that the Wings are earning a fair return from Nyquist. It’s just outside the goal column.
In fairness to St. James, she targets other players like Riley Sheahan, and Tomas Tatar, citing their scoring woes as the #1 reason Detroit is struggling. But the Red Wings problems are much deeper than this. The roster construction of this team has been heavily criticized, as players like Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Drew Miller, Luke Glendening, and Steve Ott are not known for excessive goal scoring. Those five players constitute nearly two lines of players who do not score at high clips. But as written about before on PHR, several of those players, namely Helm, Glendening, and Abdelkader, were given handsome raises despite their lack of goal scoring prowess. Ott, who St. James held up against Nyquist, brings the “grit” factor that general manager Ken Holland and Blashill laud and has been labeled as a valuable “locker room guy.” While his $800K value doesn’t break the bank, it could be argued that he blocks the way for younger players who could score goals–which is what Detroit desperately needs.
St. James in one of her tweets argues that Ott justifies his cost because of his role, while Nyquist does not. Iyer answered this here, revealing that Nyquist is still a better bargain than pricey addition Frans Nielsen, Abdelkader or Helm.
Related: Detroit’s Depth Chart
The point is not to pile on a writer who’s seeking answers for Detroit’s struggles: it’s more about looking at the whole picture instead of focusing on a few players. Nyquist, along with Tatar, were supposed to be the next in a long line of duos to lead the Red Wings. They were supposed to follow in the footsteps of Steve Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov or Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. But that hasn’t happened for a number of reasons, beginning with how the talent level is not nearly as high as it was for the aforementioned, but also because of some flaws in building the roster. Even Iyer admits that Nyquist and Tatar are “really good,” but not elite.
Nyquist is hardly the problem. While his lack of scoring hasn’t helped matters, his presence on the ice is a positive for a team failing to score goals. Porous defense, questionable coaching decisions, flawed roster construction, and excessive injuries have the Red Wings rivaling Toronto for the last spot in the Atlantic. If players are benched, it shouldn’t start with Nyquist.
Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Maple Leafs, Panthers
After a crushing 5-0 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday evening, Detroit Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill made some changes both on the roster and the ice. The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that Blashill made the decision to move Luke Glendening up to the second line during practice, and that Niklas Kronwall, who has taken maintenance days since his knee injury during practices, will sit against Tampa Bay tomorrow. Further, Petr Mrazek will be back in after Jimmy Howard was shelled–though it was hardly his fault. The Red Wings defense has been porous and since Thomas Vanek‘s injury, unable to generate scoring chances much less score goals. From Blashill:
“We’ve got to get to the other nets better. We’ve got to get more forecheck pressure, and we’ve got to win more puck battles. He does all those things. It frees you up on the wing, a little bit, to be able to get in on the forecheck, win puck battles, get to the net, and allow some more space for Nielsen and Larkin, potentially. It’s something we’re looking at.”
Glendening seems a curious choice to move up, but it fits the narrative of “toughness” and “grit” that Detroit continues to use as its guiding principle this season. Whether it translates into goals is an entirely different matter.
In other division news:
- Michael Traikos of the National Post reports that the Maple Leafs players have followed the rules and adhered to Lou Lamoriello’s rules of short hair and clean shaven faces. Matt Martin says that his agent first brought up to him before he was signed, and Martin obliged, cutting his long blonde hair down to a modest offering. Though it may seem outdated, Traikos writes that Lamoriello indicated that his teams, not individuals win championships and having a “unified appearance” is one way to buy into that. Players have certainly bought in. Netminder Frederik Andersen says that it’s part of building a culture and that the “rich history” of Toronto begs the need for unity in order to win. Traikos adds that with a young team like the Leafs, anything to build culture is welcomed and can lead to better results down the road–even something as simple as shorter hair and no facial hair.
- The Sun-Sentinel’s Craig Davis reports on newly acquired Panther Seth Griffith‘s journey to Miami. Griffith was snagged off the waiver wire from the Toronto Maple Leafs, who in turn, took Griffith from the Boston Bruins in October via the waiver wire. writes that Griffith should have ample opportunity to prove his worth with the Panthers as roster spots are aplenty.
Atlantic Notes: Canadiens, Senators, Lightning, Red Wings
How are the top four teams in the Atlantic Division really doing? There have been some surprises like Montreal’s red-hot start doused by a 10-0 drubbing at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Ottawa Senators have played great defensively. And the Detroit Red Wings will need a lot more effort wise should they want to make a 26th consecutive playoff appearance. For now, let’s take a closer look at the top four teams in the division.
- Montreal Canadiens (9-1-1; 19 points; 1st place)
The Habs have benefitted from the return of Carey Price, who has been sparkling between the pipes, registering a 6-0 record, a .964 save percentage, and a goalie point share of 2.3. Al Montoya was fine through Friday night until he surrendered 10 goals in a ghastly game against Columbus. Shea Weber has also been a bright spot, making Marc Bergevin look smart early after the blockbuster trade netted him for P.K. Subban. Weber has ten points (4-6) in 11 games, and leads the Habs in average ice time, logging nearly 26 minutes per night.
- Ottawa Senators (7-3-0; 14 points; 2nd place)
The Sens have looked strong early, riding a three game winning streak through Friday despite playing a brutal game of musical chairs in net. Craig Anderson has been tending to his wife during a health concern and has been in and out Ottawa, understandably. Andrew Hammond suffered a lower body injury that will keep him out for at least a week. Despite this, the Sens have charged on, and contribution from Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris, and Ryan Dzingel have helped. Though some think they’ll come back to earth, Guy Boucher has done well early on.
- Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-1; 13 points; 3rd place)
The Bolts have scored a lot of goals–but they’ve also been fishing the puck out of the net. After jumping out to a 5-1 start, the Lightning have gone 1-3-1 since and suffered from Ben Bishop looking very human with a pedestrian .891 save percentage. Though some of this can be chalked up to struggles and on the blue line, Bishop is in a contract year and isn’t doing enough to help himself–or the Bolts should they look to deal him away instead of losing him for nothing. Steven Stamkos continues to be dominant, putting up 13 points (7-6), while Nikita Kucherov is tied with him (3-10).
- Detroit Red Wings (6-5-1; 13 points; 4th place)
Sure, they’re fourth, but the Red Wings record is probably the weakest of the any team in the Atlantic. The Bruins have two games in hand, and are only a point behind while the Leafs and Panthers are two points behind, with a game in hand. The Sabres, last in the division, are only three points out of the Wings’ spot. Thomas Vanek was a bright spot until a hip injury sidelined him for 2-3 weeks, but the defense has been abysmal. Worse, the Red Wings are coughing up leads in the third period. Personnel decisions have been questionable, too. The deployment of the OMG line–Steve Ott, Drew Miller and Luke Glendening–has been lampooned by many while younger players, such as Andreas Athanasiou, continue to get limited ice time. The Red Wings can’t afford to sit back should they want to make another playoff appearance. The division–and conference–are much better.
Red Wings Notes: Ott, Mantha
Though it was a much maligned signing, Detroit Red Wings forward Steve Ott has filled a role that Detroit hasn’t had in quite a long time writes MLive’s Ansar Khan. Ott, who is known more for his fists than his hands, has brought a physical element to a team rarely known for hitting. In Tuesday’s game against Carolina, Ott went after Viktor Stalberg following a brutal hit from the latter on Wings defenseman Mike Green. Though it resulted in a penalty, several of his teammates loved the reaction. Says Captain Henrik Zetterberg:
“Otter brings lots of things to the table. Some are intangibles that are more in the room and the energy he brings. We’ve talked lots about sticking up for each other and he did a good job in that situation.”
The Red Wings have had more of an edge this season, as Ott, Jonathan Ericsson and even Dylan Larkin have dropped the gloves at some point. The Detroit News’ Greg Krupa reports that the turn the other cheek mentality is certainly gone, and it’s part of a new identity that the Red Wings are trying to craft. Despite the new “snarl,” the Red Wings have been scoring at crucial times and getting insurance goals whereas during last season, games were often tense, one-goal decisions. Though Ott has made his presence known, it still hasn’t quieted critics who have seen the work Anthony Mantha is doing in Grand Rapids. And if the Wings want to continue scoring those insurance goals, they could find an answer down at the farm.
- In just five games, Mantha has scored six goals and has been turning heads. Though the Red Wings have started out 5-2, reeling off five consecutive wins following a pair of losses to open the season, Mantha finds himself blocked by the aforementioned Ott, Drew Miller, and Luke Glendening. While Andreas Athanasiou has seen more ice time, and made an impact during his play, Mantha is showing the scoring touch he was drafted for. It seems only a matter of time before Mantha forces his way onto the big club.
Snapshots: Malkin, Athanasiou, Subban
Penguins writer Sam Kasan reports that with Sidney Crosby out for indefinitely, the Penguins are looking at Evgeni Malkin as the man to lead the team in his absence. A mainstay in Pittsburgh since being drafted second overall in 2004, teammate Chris Kunitz comments that having Malkin is a huge plus that most teams in the NHL don’t have:
“Most teams don’t have that luxury. ‘Geno’ is an important guy for us. He’s going to get more offensive zone time for himself with ‘Sid’ being out and showed (Thursday) that he can change a game at any time.”
Kasan writes that Malkin already put the team on his back after having a breakaway goal, assist, and a shootout goal in the Pens’ 3-2 victory over Washington. Malkin admits that it’s not easy being with Crosby, but adds that he feels his confidence is back after having a sub-par performance in the World Cup of Hockey.
In other news from around the league:
- Ansar Khan tweeted earlier that the Red Wings are already shuffling lines in the wake of a 6-4 loss at the hands of Stanley Cup favorite Tampa Bay Thursday night. The Red Wings jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead and held a 3-1 lead before the Lightning reeled off four straight goals. The Detroit penalty kill had a busy night while the line of Steve Ott, Drew Miller, and Luke Glendening had a statistically brutal evening. Khan reported that Andreas Athanasiou was slotted into a line with Henrik Zetterberg and Frans Nielsen, while Ott was working into the fourth line. Khan later tweeted that those would indeed be the lines for Saturday’s contest against Florida, meaning that Ott would be the odd man out. This could be an early indicator that head coach Jeff Blashill will truly mix and match in order to find a spark, and will be quick to yank players from the lineup swiftly, whether they’re veterans or rookies. Last season, Athanasiou had 14 points (9-5) in 37 games and did so averaging just over nine minutes on the ice.
- PK Subban notched his first goal as a Nashville Predator with a blistering slap shot in the first period of Nashville’s contest against the Chicago Blackhawks. Subban, who was traded for Shea Weber on June 29, ripped a shot from just inside the blue line to even the score at one. Known for his enthusiasm, and philanthropy during his time in Montreal, Nashville has fallen in love with its new star and the success expected on the ice should only increase his legend in the Music City.
Red Wings Roster Crunch: Analyzing the Forwards
What will the Detroit Red Wings do as the exhibition season only has one week left? General manager Ken Holland had a lot of people scratching their heads when it came to his offseason signings, no one more than Steve Ott, who adds an element of grit, but already irritated the Red Wings faithful with his hit on teammate Tomas Nosek during a scrimmage. Holland made it a priority to get “tougher” and while that’s certainly a sure bet with Ott in Detroit, head coach Jeff Blashill wants to feature speed in his lineup, which favors the younger players.
So what to expect if you’re a Red Wings fan? Seasons past certainly favors the veterans, but with Anthony Mantha having a solid preseason and Andreas Athanasiou picking up where he left off, it would certainly behoove the Wings to watch those two younger players closer than just sending them back to Grand Rapids because they’re safe getting through waivers. Three seasons ago, the Wings did just that with Gustav Nyquist, who when finally given the chance, went on a torrential scoring binge that helped the Wings into the playoffs.
Sure Bets
Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Frans Nielsen, Gustav Nyquist, Thomas Vanek, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Steve Ott.
These guys are all in, though Zetterberg is still iffy based on his knee. Should he not play, it would open up a spot for one of the younger kids to get a chance to stick longer with the big club. Nielsen is looking like a great pickup after he had a terrific World Cup of Hockey performance, along with teammate Tomas Tatar. Larkin has looked strong on his skates and made immediate contributions upon his return from the World Cup. He will also move to center, relinquishing Zetterberg from a heavier workload. Abdelkader, Helm, and Glendening will be counted on to grit out scoring chances and chip in with goals. Detroit is hoping Vanek will have a bounce back year with at least 20 goals. Sheahan, who has also been strong in the preseason, is also being looked upon to add more in scoring.
This is where it gets interesting. Miller and Ott’s contracts can be buried in the AHL because of the minimal amount they’re making: Ott at $800K and Miller at $1.025MM. Ott will most assuredly be on the opening night roster, but isn’t guaranteed to stay there. Ott will make the roster only because the team is in love with the grit narrative that doomed Team USA in the World Cup.
Though it bothers Red Wings fans that the loyalty is shown to players like Miller, who despite supposed penalty killing prowess, adds very little in terms of productivity on the ice at full strength. Going off of previous trends, it’s a safe bet that Miller will most likely end up on the Detroit roster, which if it sends Athanasiou and Mantha to Grand Rapids, will cause the fanbase to howl with disgust.
Finally, should Nyquist get the ice time he deserves, he should have no problem reaching the 20 goal plateau and in theory, should get close to his first 30 goal campaign.
Bubble players:
Martin Frk, Tomas Nosek, Tyler Bertuzzi Anthony Mantha, and Andreas Athanasiou.
With Mantha and Athanasiou making strong cases, it should give Holland pause as to going with his “over ripen” strategy and sending younger players to the minors. Mantha beefed up in the offseason and has been a force on the ice, netting goals in consecutive games. Athanasiou has been his usual disruptive self, using his speed to force turnovers and make plays on the offensive side of the ice. But basing it off previous Detroit decision making, no matter what the younger players do, unless they prove them indispensible as Larkin did last preseason, they will end up in the AHL because of the “Red Wings way” of favoring veterans.
Frk is an interesting case. After struggling and going back to the ECHL to retool his game, he has been steady and making his case during the preseason. The problem is Frk is not waiver exempt and would likely be claimed should he be exposed.
Bertuzzi is scrappy and has a knack to find the net, but needs just a little more seasoning before making the final roster–not to mention that Mantha and Athanasiou will block his path.
Nosek will start the season in the AHL with chances to make appearances in Detroit should there be injuries.
Injured: Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Jurco.
Jurco is not expected back until November while Pulkkinen is projected to play later this week.
Long Term Injured Reserve: Johan Franzen and Joe Vitale.
2016-17 Season Preview: Detroit Red Wings
With the NHL preseason underway, PHR continues to look at every team prior to the regular season. Today, we look at the Detroit Red Wings.
Last season: 41-30-11 (93 points); Finished 3rd in the Atlantic; Lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay in the first round.
Cap Space Remaining: -$4.24MM via CapFriendly.
Key Newcomers: F Thomas Vanek (signed as free agent); F Frans Nielsen (signed as free agent from New York Islanders); F Steve Ott (signed as free agent from St. Louis), F Dylan Sadowy (acquired from San Jose).
Key Departures: D Kyle Quincey (signed with New Jersey).
Player to Watch: Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar: Both saw their numbers fall last season, but a lot of that, after looking at advanced stats and ice time, show a difference in terms of how the two were utilized. Not having two players on the ice who have a knack to score goals is detrimental to their development, confidence, and ultimately, the team’s success. Both Tatar and Nyquist were supposed to have the baton handed to them as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk slowed. But head coach Jeff Blashill, who admitted his own culpability in their regression, has to be better in deploying the two goal scorers. Nyquist and Tatar, should they see the ice time they were afforded in the past, should return to their true form. Blashill has promised more minutes and a greater insistence on them.
Key Storylines: Will the Red Wings entrust this team to younger, faster, and hungrier players? Looking at teams who have seen success by allowing their younger players to play, the Red Wings are at a critical juncture in the salary cap era. Ken Holland is being scrutinized by fans and analysts for his summer of “the same” where he brought back familiar faces at much higher prices–Darren Helm immediately comes to mind. This makes some fans leery as Holland promised big changes–though he did add Vanek, and Nielsen, players who should improve the scoring woes. Reports from Darren Dreger cite that Holland balked at the asking price for Jacob Trouba and while it can be speculated that either Anthony Mantha or Dylan Larkin were asked for, Holland felt comfortable enough with his defense, though others aren’t as sure. Much was written about the Wings’ need for defense, but Holland apparently is happy with what already sits in the pipeline.
The mindset for the Wings brass seems to be one that is fine limping into the playoffs only to be bounced early. It’s a team that has for too long, relied on veterans in a league that favors the younger, speedier player. Training camp will reveal clues early should Andreas Athanasiou and Mantha both be sent down, or be healthy scratches while Drew Miller, Luke Glendening and Steve Ott play on the fourth line. Will this team learn from the sins of season’s past? Or will the organization still continue its “just do enough” strategy to make the playoffs instead of looking ahead to what could be a very painful future?
Roster Crunch: Atlantic Division
Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the final few spots on the roster for both the Pacific and Central divisions. This time, we’ll turn our attention to the East starting with the Atlantic. This division will be in turmoil over the next few years, with clubs like the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs going through slow, deliberate rebuilds, and perennial contending squads like the Detroit Red Wings finally starting to slow down.
Florida Panthers – While the Panthers have pretty much accomplished everything they set out to do this off-season – improving the blueline with Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, getting a capable replacement for Roberto Luongo in James Reimer, and locking up their young core – they failed in one, big $5.5MM way. Dave Bolland failed his physical and therefor couldn’t be bought out. He’ll try to prove he deserves some playing time this season, but may find himself buried in the AHL to make room for Jared McCann, the prize Florida received when they dealt Erik Gudbranson to the Canucks.
Are The Red Wings In Hockey Limbo?
The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin writes an interesting piece on the status of the Detroit Red Wings–a quarter of a century perennial playoff participant who seems to be at a crossroads. There hasn’t been much written about it though there are the obligatory “will the Red Wings finally miss the playoffs” prediction columns every season since Nick Lidstrom retired. And there’s good reason for that.
Since the retirement of Lidstrom, the Red Wings have been stuck in neutral. Though a “tough out” in 2013 and 2015, the Red Wings were bounced quickly in 2014 and 2016. Worse, they haven’t been viewed a legitimate contender since at best, the 2011-2012 NHL season–where they lost in five games to the Nashville Predators in the first round.
Larkin argues that the only person who can answer the question of the Wings’ Limbo status is architect and general manager Ken Holland. The Wings’ GM had a busy summer trading Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract and adding several players in Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott while re-signing Darren Helm, Petr Mrazek, Luke Glendening, Danny DeKeyser, and Drew Miller. But the moves were critiqued, especially the long term deals for players who were hardly setting the world afire on the stat sheet.
Larkin writes that Holland has a point when he says the Red Wings are not scraping the bottom of the barrel. They have a number of young core players, but with Ott, Vanek, and Miller all taking up roster space, it makes the margin of error thin for those young players in Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha. Larkin also reports that Holland feels that if a few breaks went the Wings way, perhaps they beat the Blackhawks in 2013 or the Lightning in 2015.
But that misses the point. Hockey is a sport that often comes down to luck. Many would argue that the Wings received their share of fortunate bounces during the years they won the Cup.
The point, made by many fans, is that the Red Wings haven’t been in a spot to even challenge for a Cup. Further, there has been a loyalty given to players in the Wings system or past-their-prime veterans that makes Holland feel like it’s 1999 again. In many ways, it appears that the Wings are committed to a “just barely make the playoffs” mentality and then hoping for the best. Several of Holland’s quotes all but support this.
Larkin takes a bullish view, saying that the Wings have an upside to them. But a prominent voice of Red Wings fans has made a strong point several times this summer–wondering if the financial decisions combined with the insistence on keeping veterans at the expense of younger, hungrier players will doom the team to the very long rebuild Holland loathes. Simply put: what’s the plan and even more terrifying to some fans–what will the result be?
We’ll all see soon.
Red Wings Notes: Pulkkinen, Athanasiou, Mantha, Glendening
Detroit Red Wings beat writer Ansar Khan answered questions from readers on a range of topics. Here are some of the highlights from Khan’s column:
- On the chance of Teemu Pulkkinen seeing more ice time, Khan writes that the AHL scoring machine, aside from being injured, missed a chance to secure a regular roster spot. A constant cry from several fan blogs and even analysts who use advanced metrics argue that Pulkkinen, Anthony Mantha, Tomas Jurco, and Andreas Athanasiou have not been given the proper ice time or chance to succeed. Khan does acknowledge this claim, but argues that it falls on the individual player to “seize” the moment. With the signings of Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott, it pushes out a number of bubble players. But Khan states that Ott will not be a reason Mantha doesn’t see more ice time.
- More on Athanasiou and Mantha: Khan predicts that Mantha will begin the season in Grand Rapids while Athanasiou could get the 2013 Gustav Nyquist treatment that saw the dynamic forward bottled up in Grand Rapids until injuries forced his call up. Khan states that burying Athanasiou in Grand Rapids would be a mistake should he show the same speed and offensive prowess he did during the latter half of last season.
- On Luke Glendening‘s new contract: Khan claims that the feedback he has received from fans has been mixed regarding Glendening’s new four-year, $7.2MM deal. Many fans bristled at the long term, and higher dollar amount for Glendening. Carolyn Wilke created a number of graphs that shows the value of players through a number of metrics. Wilke’s quantitative work reveals the irritation that many Wings fans had with the signing. Khan argues that Glendening “brings more to the table than people give him credit for.” While he points out that former coach Mike Babcock, current coach Jeff Blashill, and general manager Ken Holland like his work, the Red Wings are known for their loyalty to certain players.–often to a fault.
- On trades and Jimmy Vesey: Khan indicates that the Red Wings, like every other organization except Nashville, will certainly be in on pursuing Hobey Baker winner and free agent Jimmy Vesey. Additionally, he says to watch Colorado’s Tyson Barrie as another possible defensive target should the Avalanche make him available via trade.