June 13th: According to today’s rendition of 32 Thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has heard that the Stars are already dialing back their efforts to explore moving Robertson this offseason. Friedman wouldn’t confirm whether it was because Dallas prefers to retain Robertson or if they hadn’t received adequate preliminary offers. Furthering this point, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period spoke on NHL Network, reporting that the Stars prefer to move Mason Marchment, Lyubushkin, or Dumba to alleviate their financial gridlock.
June 10th: It appears there’s some legitimate fire to the smoke that erupted last week when Daily Faceoff’s Jeff Marek opined the Stars could move winger Jason Robertson to ease their incredibly restrictive salary cap space this summer. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said on 590 The FAN yesterday that Robertson’s name has indeed been floated in trade talks around the league, although “it’s not a guarantee that [he] goes.”
Robertson, 26 next month, has had a bit of a winding road since bursting onto the scene at the beginning of the decade. The 2017 second-rounder’s rookie season was the shortened 2021 campaign, scoring 45 points in 51 games to finish second on Dallas in scoring and place second in Calder Trophy voting behind Wild star Kirill Kaprizov. After eclipsing the point-per-game mark the following season, the two sides agreed on a four-year, $31MM deal after a lengthy run on the RFA market for Robertson.
It immediately looked like one of the best contracts in the league. Robertson erupted for a career-high 46 goals, 109 points, and a +37 rating while playing in all 82 games in the 2022-23 campaign, placing him fourth in MVP voting and tying for sixth in the NHL in scoring. Since then, Robertson has remained a veritable first-line piece but has seen his point production regress heavily, making him more of an ideal No. 2/3 forward instead of a team’s top scorer. He’s continued that ironman streak from the 2022-23 season but has just 80 points in each of the last two years, a 26% decrease in points per game from the heights of his breakout. His average ice time also dipped below 18 minutes per game in 2024-25 for the first time since his rookie season, and he was limited to six points in 11 postseason games after returning from a knee injury sustained in the final game of the regular season.
Aside from Dallas’ current unenviable cap situation, having just under $5MM in space with seven roster spots to fill, per PuckPedia, there are some peculiarities with Robertson’s contract that make him more of an understandable trade chip than at first glance. He’s still under team control as an RFA with arbitration rights when his extension expires next summer, and because his contract was somewhat significantly backloaded, he’s due a $9.3MM qualifying offer that’s much higher than his current $7.75MM cap hit. While Robertson’s upside remains tantalizing, is that QO number one the cap-crunched Stars are willing to even pay for one year, considering his more pedestrian offensive output over the past two seasons?
There are less efficient deals the Stars will presumably try to jettison first before becoming seriously engaged in Robertson talks. 2024 UFA defense pickups Mathew Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin both flamed out and make $3.75MM and $3.25MM against the cap next season, respectively. They’d need to replace them with cheaper UFAs this summer, but packaging some futures to get rid of those contracts would at least open up the cap space to potentially retain two of their three main pending UFAs – forwards Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund. At present, they don’t stand much of a chance of even signing one while being able to fill out the rest of the roster.
If Dallas does structure a Robertson trade, they’ll presumably do so around a cost-effective player who can step into his top-six role directly – potentially a winger still on his entry-level deal – so they can use most of his cap hit to instead commit to extensions for the aforementioned UFAs and potentially pursue a depth defense upgrade.
I wouldn’t move Robertson at age 26, But I would let all of the Stars UFAs walk, They have to get younger.
Granlund fills a similar sort of role Pavelski did when he retired, so keeping him on (for the right price) makes a lot of sense. You definitely don’t bring Ceci back, and Duchene can probably cash in elsewhere.
If I’m San Jose or another rebuilding team, I’m definitely kicking the tires on a “Dumba for Future Considerations” trade wherever a cap-strapped team has something available. Would not surprise me at all to see GMMG to pull a few more of these off to flip for futures at the Deadline.
If I’m a Columbus or Calgary, I’m definitely sniffing around on Robertson. Very reasonable argument to be made for trading Pick 14 for Robertson… Upside for both teams.
Columbus is loaded with offense, They need a shut down defender or two, Let Tarasov walk, And give the net to Greaves if he is ready.
Would you do a a trade with the framework around Robertson for Rasmus?
If I’m Dallas I might try to find a way to move Seguin, I’d let Benn, And Duchene walk, And I’d focus on rounding out the roster with solid bottom six guys, The blueline has enough mail carriers.
Greaves has played in 21 games. He’s definitely ready to be a starting goalie.
Hopefully a team sees your post and hires you as a goaltending consultant.
Seguin hard to move or buy out… Duchene likely to take a discount for Dallas. I’d entertain it
Agreed Columbus needs D-men and a goalie upgrade (regardless of Greaves). But i would still trade the 14th for Robertson. Plug him in next to Fantilli and Johnson, top 6 is solid. It also allow Boone Jenner to play 3/4C, with Voronkov and Olivia, that line is full of hard hits and can contribute offensively (Olivia won’t repeat his performance)
The Jackets are in a great place.
You would but Dallas wouldn’t. Get serious…
One of the Flyers First Rounders for Robertson?
Flyers def match up nice with Stars for a trade. Flyers have 7 of the 1st 48 picks in the draft this yr & Stars have no picks in 1st 2 rds. Plus they have some good young controllable players that might interest Dallas. The Flyers are closer to making a big jump than many might think.
I think the Flyers spend their money and assets on a center or defenseman they need them a lot more than a wing.
Robo for Foerster, Oliver Bonk and a 2nd round pick?
Center should absolutely be the number one priority for Philadelphia. After that, Goaltending, Perhaps, Carter Hart will be back by training camp.
Hart will not be allowed back. The franchise is done with him. They likely trade for Gibson and use Gibson and Ersson until one of the young prospects is ready.
Even after a likely acquittal on July 24th? Have the Flyers stated that?
“pedestrian numbers”!?!
I don’t think the Stars are upset with paying Robertson $7.75mil for 80 points a season at all!
Even the QO is fine if it comes to that, because their cap problems are mostly the result of a 2025 all in philosophy. After next season, the cap is much more manageable.
I would think the Stars would rather package a Marchment/Dumba deal of some kind.
Strongly disagree their cap problems go away in a year. Cap does go up a good bit but they’re going to have to write a much bigger check for Harley as well. If they don’t do something (and possibly even if they do) they’re going to be a very top heavy team with some sus bottom 6 / 3rd D.
Value would be hard to gauge . I imagine if he is a full year rental it would have to be a roster player , prospect and either a 1st in the is years weaker draft ( depending on how high) or a late first in next years or second .
The question is what his extension would look like? Would love for the Kings to kick the tires but only with an extension built in. I’m assuming 12×8?
Dallas needs to try to find a trade for Seguin first and clear his $9.85 million cap hit. He’s injury-prone and age 33. It may become challenging with his no-move clause, but a buyout would only save them $750,000 next season. At that buyout rate you’d probably rather keep him, but a trade if possible makes most sense.
I seriously doubt a trade is possible.
You just listed all the reasons why no one will trade for Seguin. Any reasons why a team would trade for him?
We see teams trade players out on higher-salary contracts along with draft picks such as the Sean Monahan trade in 2022. The cost to get Seguin traded may be too high to complete, especially with the amount of draft picks they lost in the Rantanen trade.
Chicago should look into Robertson, instead of Marner
NSco- The Hawks should look into him for sure. That qualifying offer in the contract will be a deal killer though. Still Robertson at 26 is exactly the kind of guy that the Hawks should be looking into. like I’ve said, FA might not be the way to go, Trading might yield better results.
Why did Nill signed Dumba and Lyubushkin to those deals? He has to get rid of both and Marchment.
When the coach chooses Petrovic over Dumba, It’s time for Dumba to go, For sure.
He’d look good in a Kraken uniform.
Hurricanes should be in on Robertson for sure, cause if what he did this year is pedestrian, we need more pedestrians in the league.
No kidding!!
I mean…do I have to say that it’s “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”…not the other way around? It’s your lede, man. Figure it out.
I asked about Robo in his last weekly chat
Since first reported I’ve thought the caps could be a very good fit with roughly $10M in space this summer as well as a top farm system and picks. Additionally, OV $9.5M and Carlson $8M will be off the books after this season when Jason is an RFA
Kyle Davidson please make the call.
Definitely worth a call if they can find a way around that dumb clause in the contract. Not sure how though. Maybe a renegotiation with more years added? Not sure how the Players Union would feel about it though.
Flames could use this guy. In their system he’s probably only a 60-70 point guy tops though. But they are desperate for goal scorers.
Detroit should be all over this. He played for Little Caesars. He has roots in Detroit. He’s young. He would replace Kane capably. Seriously, Detroit should make this move.
What do you have Detroit sending back in this scenario?
I hope my team gets in & gives Bourque an offer sheet; he’ll be next season’s Holloway…
Sounds like a made up rumor was indeed a made up rumor.
Or maybe the opposite. They got so many calls they decided to pump the brakes. You’re probably right though. It was odd to see him available.