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Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.

G Robin Lehner –  The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.

Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.

G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.

Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.

Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Boston’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F David Pastrnak – Pastrnak is coming off a breakout season that saw him finish second in team scoring while setting career highs across the board.  The Bruins will be penciling him in as a top line winger for the foreseeable future but they’ll have to reach an agreement on a new deal first.  Both sides are believed to be interested in skipping a short-term deal in the hopes of reaching a long-term contract.   That could delay things a little bit (and Pastrnak is not arbitration eligible) but all indications are that talks are going well so far.

F Ryan Spooner – It wasn’t a great year for Spooner who saw his role diminish towards the end of the season, hardly the way to head into restricted free agency.  His name is out there in trade talks while he is eligible for arbitration.  Despite ending his season on a sour note, Spooner is still poised to land a sizable raise from the $1.1MM in salary he earned in 2016-17 (which also represents his qualifying offer).  At this stage, the question is whether or not Boston will be the one signing him to that next contract.

Other RFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Austin Czarnik, F Colton Hargrove, G Zane McIntyre, D Joe Morrow, F Tim Schaller, G Malcolm Subban

Mar 16, 2017; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Boston Bruins right winger Drew Stafford (19) is seen out on the ice as they took on the Edmonton Oilers during the second period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Walter Tychnowicz-USA TODAY SportsKey Unrestricted Free Agents: F Drew Stafford – After a tough season in Winnipeg, Stafford looks reenergized as a member of the Bruins, providing some key secondary scoring after joining the team as he collected eight points in just 18 games.  He’s going to be faced with taking a pay cut from the $4.35MM he earned in each of the last two seasons but if Stafford decides to look for a short-term deal to restore some value, re-upping with Boston would make some sense.  While the team has several youngsters on the cusp of making an NHL impact, bringing Stafford back shouldn’t affect things too much and would provide them with some extra scoring depth on the wing.

F Dominic Moore – The veteran center has been a hockey nomad in recent years (since 2007-08, he has played for nine different teams) but brought some stability to Boston’s fourth line while chipping in some unexpected offense.  A shift towards speedier bottom six players has worked in his favor and Moore will be in line to reprise that role next season whether it’s with the Bruins or elsewhere.

Other UFAs: D Chris Casto, D Tommy Cross, F Brian Ferlin, D Alex Grant, D John-Michael Liles, F Tyler Randell, F Zac Rinaldo

Projected Cap Space: The Bruins currently have $62.5MM committed to 18 players for next season per CapFriendly which would slot them about $10.5MM below the 2016-17 upper limit.  A significant chunk of that will be eaten up with new deals for Pastrnak (and if he’s still around, Spooner) which makes it unlikely that GM Don Sweeney will be active on the open market aside from adding or re-signing some depth players.  There will be several teams to watch for in free agency but as things stand, Boston won’t be one of them.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Arizona’s free agent situation.

Mar 14, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Arizona Coyotes left wing Anthony Duclair (10) prepares to take a shoot the puck during a shootout in a NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings at the Staples Center. The Coyotes defeated the Kings 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsKey Restricted Free Agents: F Anthony Duclair – 2016-17 was a tough season for the 21 year old.  After putting up 20 goals and 44 points in 81 games in his first season in the desert, he had just five goals and 15 points in 58 NHL contests this season.  He was also sent to the AHL where he managed just a single tally in 16 games.  Given the success he had prior to this past season, he could still make a case that he’s worthy of a decent raise coming off his entry-level deal.  His struggles have led to some speculation that he could be dealt during the offseason.  If he’s not, a one year contract would be a likely outcome to see if he gets back to his sophomore season form before giving him a sizable pay jump.

F Alexander Burmistrov – The Russian center made a pretty good impression after being picked up off the waiver wire from Winnipeg, collecting 14 points in 26 games while seeing his ice time jump to over 15 minutes per game.  However, he is due a qualifying offer of $1.6MM which may be a bit too high for Arizona’s liking considering how much he struggled with the Jets.  GM John Chayka will have a decision to make as to whether he’s worth that qualifier or whether they’d be better suited to not tender him one and then try to negotiate a cheaper deal later on.

Other RFAs: F Grayson Downing, F Tyler Gaudet, F Peter Holland, F Josh Jooris, G Marek Langhamer, F Jordan Martinook, F Jeremy Morin, F Mitch Moroz, F Teemu Pulkkinen, F Branden Troock

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Shane Doan – While he’s coming off a down season, there’s no doubting that Doan remains the face of the franchise in Arizona.  The 40 year old has suggested in the past that he wouldn’t likely go elsewhere in free agency (although he was reportedly open to moving as a rental player at the trade deadline if the perfect situation were to come up).  If he were to sign on for another season, it would likely come at a rate below the $3.86MM base salary (before performance and signing bonus deferred payments) he earned this past season.

F Radim Vrbata – Vrbata is coming off a resurgent season after returning to the desert on a one year, incentive-laden contract last offseason.  With 55 points, he’s the second highest point producer that’s slated to hit the open market; only Washington’s T.J. Oshie (56) had more.  The soon-to-be 36 year old has had success in each of his three stints with the Coyotes but has been inconsistent when he’s with other organizations.  Despite that, the weak free agent market should help him land a lot more than the $1MM in guaranteed money he settled for last summer.

Other UFAs: D Jamie McBain, D Zbynek Michalek, F Chris Mueller, F Garret Ross, D Jarred Tinordi, F Joe Whitney

Projected Cap Space: After finishing the season in LTIR with zero cap space having taken on several large contracts for players who weren’t playing for them, Arizona has just over $47MM committed to 17 players per CapFriendly, giving them plenty of room to work with under the cap.  However, they’re a lower budget team so it’s not likely that they’ll be adding big ticket deals in free agency but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to take on a cumbersome deal for a player who’s out long-term in exchange for a younger asset, something Chayka has already done in his brief stint as GM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Anaheim’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agent: F Nicolas Kerdiles – While most teams have several RFAs to re-sign, the Ducks are one of the exceptions.  Kerdiles was the lone pending RFA to see NHL action this season so he gets the spot by default.  The former second round pick (36th overall in 2012) made his NHL debut in the regular season, getting into a single game.  He made a strong impression though as they also used him in four postseason contests where he recorded his first career point.  Kerdiles is coming off his entry-level deal and is not arbitration eligible.  His cap hit in Anaheim this season was $925K on a two-way deal and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a lower NHL payday in exchange for a higher guarantee in the minors than the $70K he received.

Other RFAs: G Kevin Boyle, F Emerson Etem, G Ryan Faragher, D Jaycob Megna

Apr 17, 2017; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Anaheim Ducks right wing Patrick Eaves (18) during the third period against the Calgary Flames in game three of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY SportsKey Unrestricted Free Agents: F Patrick Eaves – The Ducks wound up giving up a first round pick to Dallas to secure Eaves just before the trade deadline and he made quite a strong impression, scoring 11 goals in just 20 games.  He was off to a solid start to his postseason as well, tallying two goals and two assists in his first seven contests before suffering a high ankle sprain that kept him out for the rest of the playoffs.

Eaves is coming off a bargain contract worth just $1MM and will greatly surpass that in free agency.  Between Dallas and Anaheim, he scored 32 goals, only the second time that he had 15 or more in a single season.  That will likely prevent him from commanding top money as a 30 goal player often does but he has shown himself to be capable of playing a top six role and many teams around the league will have taken notice.

G Jonathan Bernier – Anaheim added Bernier from the Maple Leafs to replace Frederik Andersen (after nearly half his salary was paid by Toronto via a signing bonus) and he put up his best numbers since 2013-14.  His finish wasn’t as strong as he was pressed into action in the third round and took the loss in the final two games to Nashville.  He won’t be able to get the $4.15MM he earned on his last contract but Bernier projects to be one of the better backup goalies available on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Spencer Abbott, F Sam Carrick, G Jhonas Enroth, D Nate Guenin, G Matt Hackett, D Korbinian Holzer, D Jeff Schultz, F Nate Thompson

Projected Cap Space: With 22 players already under contract, most of Anaheim’s payroll is already committed for next season to the tune of just shy of $70.7MM per CapFriendly.  As a result, they’ll be hard-pressed to keep Eaves in the fold unless they shed some salary either via trade or through the expansion draft.  It’s likely to be a fairly quiet offseason for the Ducks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents

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The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.

Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.

Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.

The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.

The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.

Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.

 

The Radulov Factor: Signing KHL Talent

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As the 14 teams who didn’t make the playoffs can certainly attest, there is a fine line between making noise and sliding to irrelevance. One look no further than the Colorado Avalanche to realize that one off-season of poor decisions and a bad string of luck can complete derail a season beyond salvage. A solid signing can put you right back into the mix. Stagnation can mean failure, and of course, loss of fan interest as well as precious revenue.

This off-season, with the UFA class looking more sparse than ever, teams will be hunting for NHL talent on cheap contracts. Many teams will seek the help of the undrafted NCAAer, and with good reason. However, Montreal’s tactic of paying a steep contract for a KHL superstar has paid dividends, through the season and now in the playoffs. Alexander Radulov had his fair share of nay-sayers, as his experience with Nashville didn’t go particularly well. And an anti-Russian, anti-European bias does always seem to sneak into the conversation whenever overseas talent is concerned. Artemi Panarin had plenty of suitors, to be sure, but even he was compensated less than what he realistically deserved. In his first season, the young star tallied 30 goals and 77 points on a line with Patrick Kane. Not much of an adjustment faze.

Let’s look at a trio of names that have been, or should be, tossed into the ring for teams’ consideration in the near future:

Jan Kovar (C)  – Metallurg Magnitogorsk

Kovar has been mentioned from time to time for years, as an intriguing top forward for the star-studded Magnitogorsk. Talks to come over to the NHL have unfortunately never gotten particularly serious. Kovar scored 63 points in 59 games this past year, lead the Gagarin Cup playoffs with 25 points, and is still a decently spry 27 years-old. The Czech-born center is listed at only 5’10”, but as we have seen with Vladimir Sobotka, size isn’t always a deal-breaker. He is known for his solid shot and ability to create chances from very little. His playmaking abilities have only gotten better with age. Although his World Championship point totals aren’t fantastic, he would be a low-risk addition for any fringe team in need of offensive flair, or depth up the middle.

Evgeny Dadonov (RW) – SKA St. Petersburg

The former Florida Panther has been nothing short of phenomenal for SKA in the past year. During the team’s title run, the forward pulled off Datsyuk-ian moves with relative ease. He has previous ties to Carolina, and whatever they could offer should be matched by any other bottom-feeding team in the division – this player has the serious potential to burn defensemen for years. He could also be a complete bust, like he was his first time through. But the maturity that comes with multiple playoff runs and being trusted in a leadership role shouldn’t be under-estimated. Even in light of the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics, Dadonov is expected to strongly consider a return to the league. His pricetag may be an issue, however. Here’s hoping the cost isn’t a sticking point, because his remarkable creativity would be a welcome sight on NHL ice.

Emil Garipov (G) – Ak Bars Kazan

Yes, the goalie market is flooded with capable tenders already. Yes, you’ve probably never heard of this guy. Yes, no team has any rumored interest of late. But franchises struggling with goalie depth would be bonkers to not at least pick up the phone on this kid with the statlines he’s put up. At 25 years-old, Garipov is just hitting his prime years as a netminder. He kept his team afloat yet again with another strong showing in a KHL career that has been remarkably strong. His career save percentage is well above .930 and he survived an absolute barrage of shots last season with veteran poise. Garipov is technically sharp and he exudes a confidence that is well beyond his years. He also never quits on a play, which can be evidenced by scores of highlights such as these. Worst case scenario – you acquire a backup who struggles. But Garipov has shown flashes of next-level athleticism and focus which suggest that he could be capable of making the leap.

Of course, the Olympic situation complicates any potential KHL hoppers this summer. How much of a deterrent the Pyeongchang decision will be for Europeans remains to be seen, but as Radulov evidences on a nightly basis, the rewards for thinking outside the box can be great indeed.

Free Agent Profile: Jakub Nakladal

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Jakub Nakladal entered this off-season as a relative unknown among hockey fans (and maybe even some teams), but was considered by some to be a dark horse candidate for this summer’s best value signing. A 28-year-old rookie with the Calgary Flames in 2015-16, the 6’2″, 212 lb. Czech native played in only 27 games last season. In his brief showing, he played about 14 minutes per game and managed to record two goals and three assists.

At first glance, the numbers are nothing to get too excited about. A closer look reveals otherwise though; Nakladal was actually a very capable and productive player for the Flames. The “HERO chart” below displays that not only was he an outstanding possession player by Corsi standards, who created offense and made his team mates better, but he was also a solid  defensive presence. In fact, by statistical standards, Nakaladal played as well as an average top-four defenseman last season. If you don’t trust the numbers, trust the people. A good measure of a free agent’s ability and value is how much the fan base wants him back. Social media will tell you that Flames fans would very much like to see Nakladal return to Calgary, though the team’s depth makes that unlikely. If the fans who watched him play believe he is worth having, he likely is. Other fans have caught on as well. As the market has slowed to a crawl in these last few weeks and the list of available names continues to shrink, Nakladal’s name has resurfaced as seemingly every fan’s top PTO target.

Story 1

Regardless, Nakladal remains unsigned. Perhaps his 27 games were not enough for other NHL teams to get a good read on him. It’s also possible that his strong possession statistics could be perceived as skewed because of too few minutes. Maybe yet another reason is that executives are simply not clamoring to acquire a player who could be 30 before he plays in 100 NHL games. For some reason or another, the market for Nakladal’s services has not formed yet. With only so many names remaining, it seems like a matter of time though.

Potential Suitors

It is very unlikely that Nakladal will be handed a top-four position, or even a top-six gig at this point. Few teams are still looking to make additions with training camp right around the corner. However, his market value is clearly low and his ceiling appears to be high, making the risk to teams still looking around for talent very low. At the very least, he is a capable player who could be a reliable seventh or eighth defenseman with enough upside to crack the starting lineup or who could also be a valuable AHL stash. An added benefit is that he is also a right-handed shot. Teams looking to balance their defensive depth or who simply lack depth and are willing to take a shot on a skilled player, should be taking a long look at Nakladal as the summer winds down. The Boston Bruins, for example, have three right-handed defensemen with NHL experience in Kevan Miller, Colin Miller, and veteran Adam McQuaid, but only Kevan Miller managed to stay in the starting lineup throughout the 2015-16 season. The New Jersey Devils have also been speculated to be looking for a right-handed shot, after trading away Adam Larsson left only Damon Severson and new addition Ben Lovejoy as righties on the line. Add the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Ottawa Senators, Washington Capitals, and Vancouver Canucks to a list of teams that could be helped and certainly not hurt by adding an affordable puck-moving defenseman, and Nakladal’s availability seems even stranger.

Expected Contract

The calendar flips to September tomorrow, and contracts at this point in the off-season are impossible to predict. Who would’ve guessed that Boston would sign Dominic Moore to a guaranteed deal yesterday with six proven centers already on the roster? Nevertheless, deals do get done, even as the summer draws to a close. Much like the situation with James Wisniewski (if he’s healthy) in Tampa Bay, some lucky team might have the chance to strike gold by extending a Professional Tryout Offer to Nakladal. Considering the possibility that Nakladal has yet to really reach his potential, given what limited play time he saw last year, an even better move might be to just sign him to a short, cheap contract and ensure that no one else can take him off your hands. Whether signed off of a PTO or guaranteed right away, Nakladal should end up on an NHL roster to the tune of $800K or so. Unless they have a lot of faith in young stud Brandon Carlo or really want to play both McQuaid and K. Miller every night, bet on the Bruins, who have cap space and roster space, to make another move and take a chance on Nakladal in 2016-17.

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers were expected to be more competitive in 2015-16, thanks to phenom Connor McDavid, a new coach and GM, and off-season acquisitions Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, and Griffin Reinhart. Unfortunately, McDavid was hurt in early November, and by the time he returned in February, the Oilers were out of the playoff picture. Reinhart struggled early and spent the middle part of the season in the AHL. Top defender Oscar Klefbom spent more than half the year on IR after a broken knuckle and two successive staph infections. The Oilers struggled and finished 29th, mainly because of injuries and a porous defence. Stop me if you’ve heard this story before.

GM Peter Chiarelli has made several moves, with mixed results. Acquiring Talbot for picks has given the Oilers their starter for the next several seasons. Sekera is a solid second-pairing defenceman, but the Oilers are still missing two top 4 defensive options. The Reinhart trade is tough to call at this time, because of the Oilers depth of left-handed defensemen and Reinhart not being NHL-ready.

Adding Eric Gryba, Zack Kassian, and Patrick Maroon made the Oilers harder to play against, something that has sorely been missing in Oil Country. Big center Leon Draisaitl rebounded from a tough rookie season to put up 51 points despite spending a month in the AHL. Former 6th round pick in 2010 Brandon Davidson made the team as the 8th defenceman and played his way into a top 4 role, earning an extension and praise from around the league.

Chiarelli compared the team’s improvement to a “taller midget”.

Cap space: $10.3MM, 22 players under contract

Key RFAs: none

Other RFAs: W Iiro Pakarinen, D Jordan Oesterle, D Adam Clendening, LW Luke Gazdic, D David Musil

Clendening and Gazdic were not qualified and will become UFAs.

Key UFAs: none

Other UFAs: D Eric Gryba, RW Adam Cracknell, D Adam Pardy, D Niki Nikitin

Outlook: The Oilers don’t have any key players to re-sign, but need to drastically improve their back end through trades or free agency. Watch for Chiarelli to be involved in a few dealings around the draft.

High profile names like Travis Hamonic, PK Subban, Tyson Barrie, Jacob Trouba, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Seth Jones, Jason Demers, and Justin Faulk have all been linked to the Oilers at different points. While the ask for those players would be high, the Oilers have organizational depth in NHL forwards and prospect defensemen.

Besides defence, the Oilers need a right-handed centre with skill, more depth on right wing, and a backup goalie to allow Laurent Brossoit to develop further in the AHL. Big UFA winger Milan Lucic is a player of interest, as he would allow the Oilers to trade one of Jordan Eberle or Benoit Pouliot for defensive help.

Former first overall pick Nail Yakupov asked for a trade, and will likely be dealt on the draft floor. TSN 1260’s Jason Gregor reported the Ducks and Oilers were close to a trade involving Yakupov and Pouliot heading to Anaheim, but Pouliot’s season-ending injury ended those talks. In the end, Maroon was sent to Edmonton for project prospect Martin Gernat and a 4th round pick.

Former captain Andrew Ference will likely spend the year on LTIR, freeing up an additional $3.25MM under the cap. Ference underwent hip surgery in March.

Fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi will likely make the team, but could spend some time in Bakersfield to adjust to North America. In any case, don’t expect any other rookies to crack the opening night roster, but college free agent signing Drake Caggiula and AHLers Oesterle, Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev, Bogdan Yakimov, and Jujhar Khaira should see some NHL time during the season. Finnish winger Jere Sallinen was signed from the KHL and could be a dark horse to make the team as an extra forward.

Expansion draft wise, the Oilers are likely able to protect everyone they want to on their current roster with the exception of Brossoit, but he won’t be among the top 3 goaltenders available based on his struggles at the NHL level. Issues could come up after a summer of improving the roster, but Chiarelli won’t be too concerned about that yet.

Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Widely picked as a sleeper team for 2015-16, the Columbus Blue Jackets wound up at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division standings instead.  Now, GM Jarmo Kekalainen must find a way to shuffle up the roster despite most of the team already being under contract for next season.

Key Restricted Free Agent: D Seth Jones – One of the biggest trades of last year involved Jones joining the Blue Jackets in exchange for C Ryan Johansen.  Jones immediately became their top defenseman, logging 24:27 a night and picked up 20 points in just 41 games with the team.

At this point, the Jackets appear to be focused on securing a long-term contract with the former 4th overall pick, reports Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch.  That’s going to be a very pricey proposition as a 6-8 year deal should come in between $6MM – $7MM per season.

While a bridge deal is also a possibility, the odds of that are tempered with the threat of an offer sheet.  Given his stature and Columbus’ cap situation (more on that shortly), Jones may be the prime target for one.  If he signs (or comes close to signing) an offer sheet, it will most likely be a long-term pact.

Other RFA’s: C Michael Chaput, D Scott Harrington, D Michael Paliotta

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: LW Rene Bourque gets the nod by default as he’s the only full time NHL player that’s unrestricted for the Jackets.  He’s coming off another disappointing campaign where he scored just 3 goals and 5 assists in 49 games while being a frequent healthy scratch.  The 34 year old may be hard pressed to find a deal early on in free agency and is a likely candidate for a training camp tryout.

Other UFA: D Justin Falk

Cap Situation: The Blue Jackets already have 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies under contract for next season and have a little under $5.5 MM in cap space to work with according to Cap Friendly.  Jones’ contract will likely cost more than that on top of potentially adding another player or two to the roster.  Several players from their Calder Cup winning AHL affiliate in Lake Erie are close to being ready and the team would like to make room for some of them to play next season.

Kekalainen will have to try to move a fair bit of salary this offseason, either through buyouts (D Fedor Tyutin or RW Jared Boll are possibilities) or through trade; LW Scott Hartnell has come up in talks this offseason.  That will be their primary offseason focus instead of the free agent market.

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 5 Comments

The Toronto Maple Leafs may have finished dead last in 2015-16, but things are looking up for the boys in blue. The Leafs drafted Auston Matthews—the consensus number one pick—and have a slew of young talent waiting in the wings. The team addressed their goaltending woes by trading for pending RFA Frederik Andersen and immediately signing him to a 5 year, $25MM extension.

Cap Space: $3,765,834 (via CapFriendly). This number is smaller than the actual cap space the Leafs will have on opening night because it does not include Jared Cowen’s impending buyout and Nathan Horton and Stephane Robidas’ LTIR placements—the latter of which comes into effect on opening night.

Key UFAs: F P.A. Parenteau

Parenteau finished second in team scoring last year with 20G and 21A, and led the team in power play goals with 7. The Leafs valued Parenteau enough to avoid trading him at the deadline for draft picks, which speaks volumes for a rebuilding team. The Quebecois right winger was bought out by Montreal before last season, and signed a $1.5MM one-year deal with the Leafs. Given his recent production, Parenteau would be looking for a raise and a longer-term contract.

Other UFAs: F Brad Boyes, F Michael Grabner, D T.J. Brennan.

Key RFAs: F Peter Holland and G Garret Sparks.

Holland finished the season with 9G and 18A in 65 games with the Leafs, similar to his production last season. The Leafs expected Holland to be a prototypical power-forward center in the mould of Getzlaf or Lindros, but the RFA has not delivered so far. With Auston Matthews, Tyler Bozak, and Nazem Kadri all slated to play center next year, Holland may be the odd man out. Sparks earned some time with the big club last year in place of injured starters, and amassed a 6-9 record with a .893 SV% and 3.02 GAA. Those are not stellar numbers, but the rookie goalie showed signs of promise by posting a shutout in one of his early games. It is unclear whether the Leafs issue qualifying offers to either RFA, and as of writing have not done so. The team has until June 27th at 5pm.

Other RFAs: F Sam Carrick, D Frank Corrado, D Martin Marincin.

The Leafs are rumored to be a big player in the Steven Stamkos sweepstakes but they’ll have to move some salary to make cap room. Goaltender Jonathan Bernier is the obvious candidate now that Andersen is the presumptive starter. Bernier makes $4.5MM a year and is on the final year of his contract. If the Leafs don’t move him they will start the season with $9.5MM tied up in goaltending. Once they place Horton and Robidas on LTIR and buy out Cowen, they should have enough space to make a serious play for the top free agent target this offseason.

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