While there wasn’t as much transaction activity at the draft combine as some expected, there was still a chance for many to get a sense of what NHL executives are thinking ahead of the draft and free agency. Regarding Panthers pivot Sam Bennett, arguably the top UFA center available on the heels of a spectacular postseason showing, “no one I spoke to around the league expects [him] to be available,” writes James Mirtle of The Athletic.
It wouldn’t be a surprising outcome. The Panthers have had a strong track record of success regarding keeping pending UFAs in the fold in recent years, particularly forwards. They got business out of the way early with winger Carter Verhaeghe, who could have been a UFA this summer but signed an eight-year, $56MM extension back in October, and kept star Sam Reinhart off the market on the eve of free agency last year with an eight-year, $69MM deal worth $8.625MM per season that came in a fair bit under his market value.
Both of those players took less money per season in exchange for the eighth year of security that only the Panthers can offer, plus the opportunity to continue spending their primes with a perennial championship contender in South Florida. Bennett should be expected to take some form of discount on what will presumably be an eight-year contract as well, but with how much his stock has risen amid a year where he leads the postseason with 13 goals in 19 games, that “discount” might even be more than he could have landed as a free agent last summer.
As such, a Bennett extension in Florida is still likely to cost at least $8MM per season, Mirtle said. That indicates there could be some smoke to the fire that erupted when Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic speculated there could be a handful of teams willing to offer Bennett close to $10MM per season if he decided to test free agency.
Even with a rising cap, though, $8MM is quite a lot of money for Florida to tie up in a center at his peak coming off a career-high of just 51 points in the regular season. With the much younger Anton Lundell signed at a much more cost-effective $5MM figure through 2030 and posting similar offensive production to Bennett in lesser minutes this past season, many speculated Florida would give him the keys to the 2C slot. Nonetheless, it appears their one-two-three punch of Aleksander Barkov, Bennett, and Lundell will be in place for at least the next five years, after which Barkov’s and Lundell’s contracts are set to expire.
Teams have said this about other players in the past in thinking a certain player won’t hit FA & yet does. Sam Bennett is more than likely hitting FA especially since his agent is notorious for pushing his clients to test the market. I would say it’s a 10% chance he stays in Florida. Whoever signs Bennett, however, is going to overpay on a contract that’s going to age quite poorly within a few years.
If it was just one or two GMs, I would agree with you. However, it sounds like it is pretty much a consensus amongst front offices that Bennett and the Panthers will work out an extension.
Definitely a buyer beware situation there. And how does Bennett end up -15 on a team that has gone to the finals three consecutive seasons?
@The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant – You’re forgetting just last offseason those same GMs, all said the same thing about Steven Stamkos wouldn’t hit FA & did, for one example. Also, this article fails to mention that Sam Bennett turned down a contract offer of around $7M from Florida during the season. So I don’t buy the GMs perspective on the Bennett situation, I think there going to be wrong more than likely in the end IMO.
Management in Florida does a great job retaining their own key players at reasonable costs.
I thought I recognized that sound. It was the air coming out of 31 big balloons. Even though “Not Expecting” is no guarantee, there are a bunch of talking heads on various interweb radio shows that are saying, “WHAAAAT???”.
$8 MM is an overpay. Not a whole lot of one, because the guy does seem to show up big for the playoffs generally. But sure as hell not for max term. Age 27-28 is athletic peak, and Bennett’s 29 when the new season starts. It’s just going to be downhill from here (and he’s missed a bit of time through injuries over the years, so he doesn’t have the world’s most robust frame), and I’d think that even giving him four years would see that contract age out.
Naturally, some team will offer 7×8. Florida should let that team take it. (Me, I’m hoping they don’t, just to keep alive the chance that Brad Marchand will return to Boston.)
Under this management, players tend to perform better in Florida than elsewhere. Huberdeau is the best example.
The same goes for the coaches. It’s not just Maurice. Look at how Brunette is doing in Nashville.
They should be able to lose Bennett with no ill effects.