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Nicholas Robertson

Snapshots: Robertson, Tkachuk, Draft

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Despite signing a one-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs just yesterday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman spoke on his 32 Thoughts podcast about the possibility of forward Nicholas Robertson being traded and noted a link between Robertson and Pittsburgh Penguins’ GM Kyle Dubas.

This represents the second consecutive summer that the forward has been linked to Pittsburgh, and Friedman’s report comes just a day after Robertson and the Maple Leafs avoided arbitration with a one-year, $1.825MM contract.

“I’ve had a couple people ask me about the possibility of Nick Robertson in Pittsburgh. They got the arbitration settled on Saturday, but the Maple Leafs need to clear some bodies there. They have a lot of them,” he said. “I think that the Maple Leafs have work to do. I don’t know what their timeline is, but they need to do some things before puck drop.”

To Friedman’s point, the Maple Leafs currently have 14 forwards on one-way deals for next season. Robertson, 23, posted 15 goals and 23 points in a bottom-six role last season for Toronto. He added two points in three playoff games. He also averaged a career-high 12:00 per game of playing time.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:

  • Friedman also provided an injury update on Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk, who revealed after winning the Stanley Cup that he had been playing through a torn adductor muscle throughout the postseason. Friedman shared his belief that Tkachuk will miss a big chunk of the regular season, but sees a path for him to be ready for the Olympics next winter. “I think (the Olympics) is a huge deal for him. But I do think he’ll miss the start of the year and a chunk of time after that,” he said. Tkachuk, and his brother, Brady Tkachuk, played a huge role in the 4 Nations Face-Off and are expected to be a focal point of the U.S team at the Olympics if healthy.
  • Despite fan (and possibly league) dissatisfaction with the decentralized draft format, teams voted to continue with it in 2026. And Friedman suggests that the decision was largely driven by teams’ desire to protect their internal information. While the vote was closer this year (20-12 in favor of keeping it decentralized), Friedman isn’t convinced that additional votes will soon push for a return to the traditional draft format. “I really thought, because of how (Gary) Bettman was opening ripping the GMs about this, I thought it was going to change,” he said. “It’s obvious to me that these teams that voted to keep it the way it is really value the secrecy.”

Maple Leafs Re-Sign Nicholas Robertson

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There will be no arbitration hearings in the NHL this summer.  The last remaining case has settled as the Maple Leafs announced that they have re-signed winger Nicholas Robertson to a one-year, $1.825MM contract.

The agreement comes one day after the two sides made their submissions in advance of Sunday’s scheduled hearing.  Toronto filed at $1.2MM while Robertson’s camp came in at $2.25MM.  The midpoint of those numbers is $1.725MM so Robertson was able to beat that by $100K with this agreement while it represents a big raise on the $875K he received last season.

The 23-year-old has shown himself to be a capable depth scorer but that alone hasn’t been enough to stay in the lineup with much consistency.  After notching 14 goals in 56 games in 2023-24, Robertson was able to slightly beat that total last season, tallying 15 times while adding seven assists in 69 games.  He also averaged a career-high 12:00 per game of playing time.

However, while he was in the lineup more often than not during the regular season, that wasn’t the case in the playoffs.  Robertson played in just three games for the Maple Leafs during the playoffs despite picking up points in two of those outings, a goal and an assist.

The lack of consistent playing time led Robertson to request a trade last summer, an ask that wasn’t granted.  At this point, it doesn’t appear as if the request has been dropped either.  However, a $1.825MM price tag for a player who hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup on a regular basis might be on the high side for some teams although a swap of young forwards on similar contracts could be a viable path to a change of scenery for Robertson.

On the other hand, Toronto’s most prominent offseason addition up front to replace Mitch Marner was winger Matias Maccelli, acquired from Utah.  With the Maple Leafs looking to ice a more balanced lineup, there could be a chance for Robertson to get more of a look in a top-six or even top-nine role in 2025-26 and if that were to happen, he might be inclined to rescind his request to be moved.

With the signing, Toronto has all its NHL restricted free agents under contract but they still have a pair of prospects to re-sign over the coming weeks in goaltender Dennis Hildeby and defenseman William Villeneuve.  While Hildeby was arbitration-eligible, he declined to file for a hearing early last month.

Now that Robertson is signed, the cap picture for the Maple Leafs looks clearer.  Per PuckPedia, Toronto has around $1.1MM in flexibility, albeit with 24 players on its roster with the maximum being 23 healthy players.  That gives GM Brad Treliving a bit of wiggle room to work with while they’re believed to be looking to move winger Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM) and David Kampf ($2.4MM) to open up both cap and roster space.  Their ability (or lack thereof) to do so might ultimately dictate if they can make any other moves this summer.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the deal. 

Arbitration Breakdown: Nicholas Robertson

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Every player to file for arbitration so far this offseason has avoided a hearing, and only one case even got remotely close. That likely won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs and Nicholas Robertson, who have until their hearing starts on Sunday to settle before an arbitrator’s award will decide their fate.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM
Player: $2.25MM
Midpoint: $1.725MM

(via Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet)

The Numbers

Nothing much really changed last season for Robertson. After a trade request last summer didn’t come to fruition, he ended up inking a one-year, $875K deal to return to Toronto in hopes of landing a more consistent role in their top-nine forward group. That didn’t happen. While he did make a career-high 69 appearances, the 23-year-old’s usage remained conservative at 12 minutes per game, and his point pace dropped off from his 2023-24 performance. He finished the year with 15 goals – seventh on the team – but only seven assists for 22 points, a rate of 0.32 per game after he recorded 0.48 per game the year before in lesser minutes.

The younger brother of Stars centerpiece Jason Robertson has always been viewed as one of the higher-ceiling young offensive options in Toronto’s system. He’s shown it in flashes, but it’s clear at this stage he needs a longer leash and more minutes to truly be effective without many other elements to his game (although he did manage a career-high 79 hits last year).

Whether he’ll receive that in Toronto remains to be seen. In any event, the Leafs’ seven-figure filing is significantly higher than his $775K cap hit from 2024-25, so it’s clear they’re anticipating on him playing a slightly more regular role in 2025-26 and will presumably count on him for more depth scoring in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure. But for a player with just over 150 career appearances, it’s going to be a tad difficult to project how a potential hearing may shake out.

2024-25 Stats: 69 GP, 15-7–22, -1 rating, 16 PIMs, 112 shots, 12:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 156 GP, 32-24–56, +2 rating, 24 PIMs, 258 shots, 11:28 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Jonatan Berggren (Red Wings) – Berggren is a year older than Robertson and has fewer seasons of NHL experience, but they’ve both clicked at around a 30-point pace for their career in similar deployment. Like Robertson, Berggren’s platform year saw him play the most games of his career, but not with the best per-game production rate. While an imperfect science, there’s good evidence for both sides here to argue for a deal closer to the midpoint rather than an extreme swing toward either Toronto’s or the player’s filing.

Contract (2025): One year, $1.825MM AAV, 1.9 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 12-12–24, -13 rating, 14 PIMs, 88 shots, 12:59 ATOI
Career Stats: 154 GP, 29-29–58, -28 rating, 32 PIMs, 200 shots, 13:01 ATOI

Sonny Milano (Ducks) – This may be the best comparable available aside from its outdatedness. Milano was also coming off his age-23 season and, like Robertson, had five years of NHL experience despite the lower games-played total. Note the higher cap hit percentage since the deal was signed five years ago – that might be something Robertson’s camp puts on the table to get him closer to or at the $2MM mark for his award (a 2.1 CH% with a $95.5MM cap ceiling is almost exactly $2MM on the dot).

Contract (2020): Two years, $1.7MM AAV, 2.1 CH%
Platform Stats: 55 GP, 7-16–23, -7 rating, 26 PIMs, 75 shots, 13:06 ATOI
Career Stats: 125 GP, 22-25–47, -17 rating, 36 PIMs, 153 shots, 12:07 ATOI

Jack Quinn (Sabres) – Quinn comes across near the higher end of these comparables. While the perception around Quinn having a down year last season may have some truth to it, the numbers still point to him being at least a tier above Robertson in terms of what he’s actually produced. Add in Quinn’s draft pedigree as a No. 9 overall pick, and it’s easier to see why Robertson’s filing wasn’t higher than it was, although his camp may still attempt to draw comparisons to convince the arbitrator to side with them outright.

Contract (2025): Two years, $3.375MM AAV, 3.5 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 15-24–39, -18 rating, 18 PIMs, 123 shots, 14:52 ATOI
Career Stats: 178 GP, 39-58–97, -26 rating, 41 PIMs, 311 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Filip Zadina (Red Wings) – Aside from the draft pedigree, Zadina’s comparable here is also a pretty direct one. He was only one year younger than Robertson was at the time of their contract signings, but had seen more deployment to the tune of similar career offensive results with worse defensive impacts. Given the cap percentage, this would come across as a more advantageous comparable for Robertson.

Contract (2022): Three years, $1.825MM AAV, 2.2 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 10-14–24, -24 rating, 10 PIMs, 154 shots, 14:11 ATOI
Career Stats: 160 GP, 25-36–61, -46 rating, 12 PIMs, 329 shots, 15:13 ATOI

Projection

Since Robertson was the one to file and has multiple years of team control remaining, the Maple Leafs can pick a one or two-year term for his next contract after the arbitrator awards the AAV. Considering his inconsistent year-to-year pace, it stands to reason they’d pick a one-year deal to make him a more attractive trade chip if he doesn’t pan out this year (or give themselves the option to walk away entirely next summer).

The comparable contracts advocate for a deal near the midpoint but slightly in Robertson’s favor, likely in the $1.8MM-$2MM range. It may not be as much as he wanted, but it still doubles last year’s salary and will give him a seven-figure salary for the first time in his career.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.

East Notes: Robertson, Biondi, Gardner

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Even if the Maple Leafs don’t plan on keeping winger Nicholas Robertson around long-term, they should do their best to settle with the restricted free agent before his arbitration hearing on Sunday, David Alter of The Hockey News opines.

He cites a recent example in Toronto, goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who had a one-year, $3.55MM deal handed down through arbitration for the 2023-24 season. Any trade value he had was tanked by his poor performance that year – something Samsonov admitted was influenced in part by the stress of the hearing – and he ended up on waivers and later left in free agency.

Players seeing their performance and confidence dip after an arbitration hearing isn’t a new phenomenon, and it’s something players are being more public about in the last few years. Hearing reasons laid out by your team for why you should be paid less than market value is an understandably unsettling experience. For the high-ceiling Robertson, who’s already had his development and confidence stunted by long strings of healthy scratches and limited deployment that led to a trade request last year, that’s not something Toronto can afford to saddle him with to continue getting positive value out of him, whether that’s via trade or with his on-ice play.

More news and notes out of the Eastern Conference:

  • After going unsigned by the Canadiens, who drafted him in the fourth round in 2020, forward Blake Biondi will begin his pro career in the Hurricanes organization this season on a contract with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. The 23-year-old recently spoke to NHL.com’s Kurt Dusterberg about the significant injury-related and personal adversity he faced during his five-year run in college with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and Notre Dame, but called the opportunity with the Wolves “a great path for me” to continue his development toward landing an NHL contract. The former Minnesota high school star scored 12 goals and 27 points in 38 games last season for Notre Dame.
  • While Canada’s NHL goaltending stable has been relatively weak in the past few years, Blue Jackets prospect Evan Gardner is a name to watch in the next wave of prospects hoping to change that, writes Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. The 2024 second-rounder has put up a pair of spectacular seasons in junior hockey for the WHL’s Saskatoon Blades, leading the league in GAA and SV% in his draft year and posting totals of 2.46 and .917, respectively, in 74 career games for the Blades with seven shutouts. While he hasn’t logged any international experience for Canada, he’s on their roster for this week’s World Junior Summer Showcase and is looking to work his way onto their roster for the main WJC in the winter.

Arbitration Schedule For Remaining Cases Finalized

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The arbitration hearing dates for the few remaining unsettled cases have been finalized, PuckPedia reports:

F Kaapo Kakko, Kraken: July 25

G Arvid Soderblom, Blackhawks: July 28

F Maxim Tsyplakov, Islanders: July 29

D Dylan Samberg, Jets: July 30

D Conor Timmins, Sabres: Aug. 2

F Nicholas Robertson, Maple Leafs: Aug. 3

D Jayden Struble, Canadiens: Aug. 3

There are only seven out of this year’s initial 11 player-elected arbitration cases still without a resolution as the hearings approach. Winnipeg had three of the players on that list and has settled with two of them, reaching a two-year, $3.7MM settlement with Morgan Barron and a substantial six-year, $45MM deal for Gabriel Vilardi.

The Ducks also had two arbitration cases on that list, but settled with both of them in the past few days. Depth defenseman Drew Helleson got a two-year, $2.2MM contract, while emerging star goaltender Lukas Dostal signed a five-year, $32.5MM deal.

There were two team-elected arbitration cases this year, the Sabres’ Bowen Byram and the Mammoth’s Jack McBain, but both have been settled.

As for the seven players above, they can continue talks with their clubs on a new deal until the hearing begins. After that, they’re bound to the arbitrator’s decision.

Players who reach an arbitration hearing are only eligible to sign a one or two-year contract. Since the player filed for arbitration in all seven cases above, the team gets to choose the contract length after receiving the arbitrator’s decision on the AAV. However, only Robertson, Soderblom, and Struble would be eligible for two-year contracts. Everyone else is one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency status, so they can’t receive a multi-year arbitration award.

If the arbitration award exceeds $4.85MM in any case, the team can decline it and allow the player to become an unrestricted free agent.

Eleven Players Elect Salary Arbitration

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Eleven players across the NHL have elected for salary arbitration, per the NHLPA.

Those names include:

The deadline for second club-elected arbitration is Sunday at 5 p.m., with arbitration hearings scheduled from July 20 to August 4. Two seasons ago, 23 players filed for arbitration, and last summer, that number dropped to 14 — a downward trend that continues this year.

As a reminder, not every player is expected to head to a hearing, as negotiations will continue leading into July 20. However, each player who elects for salary arbitration is now prohibited from negotiating with other teams or signing an offer sheet.

Atlantic Notes: Robertson, Hutson, Heponiemi

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While Nicholas Robertson got into a career-high 69 games with the Maple Leafs this season, his trade request from last year still stands, reports Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic (subscription link).  The 23-year-old had a career-best 15 goals this season and even chipped in with a pair of points in three postseason outings.  However, playing time remained hard to come by as he averaged just 12 minutes a night of ice time and it’s clear he’d like a shot at a bigger role elsewhere.  Robertson is a pending restricted free agent owed a qualifying offer of just under $919K.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible which could push his price tag closer to the $1.5MM range.  If Toronto isn’t willing to pay that price, Robertson could get his wish for a change of scenery in the coming weeks.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • While Lane Hutson will be eligible for a contract extension this summer, Arpon Basu of The Athletic posits (subscription link) that this file might not get done right away. The Canadiens have tried to keep their core players signing below captain Nick Suzuki’s $7.875MM but Hutson’s rookie year, his comparable players, plus the big increases coming in the salary cap will make that difficult.  It’s possible Montreal opts for a shorter-term pact to keep the AAV lower but it could also make sense to see what happens next year and decide from there.  Hutson, a Calder Trophy finalist, had six goals and 60 assists in 82 games this season.
  • After moving on from his team in Switzerland to become a free agent, it looked like there was a chance that Aleksi Heponiemi could be returning to the Panthers. However, that’s not the case as he recently inked a two-year deal with HV71 in the SHL, per a team release.  The 26-year-old has 25 career NHL games with Florida under his belt but after being primarily in the minors in North America, he headed overseas two years ago.  This past season with EHC Biel-Bienne, Heponiemi had 18 points in 37 games.  Florida will retain his rights as a restricted free agent through next summer.

Maple Leafs Announce Multiple Minor Injuries

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced a handful of injuries as they approach their final game. The group is notably led by winger Nicholas Robertson, who’s day-to-day with an upper-body injury per David Alter of The Hockey News. Robertson has been among Toronto’s biggest standouts this preseason, netting a team-leading three goals through four appearances. Toronto has been vocal about Robertson’s chance to earn more ice time this season, as they look to fill the void left by 20-goal scorer Tyler Bertuzzi, who moved to the Chicago Blackhawks this summer. Robertson has stifled through menial NHL roles for the past three seasons, with the 2023-24 campaign representing his only full year with the Leafs. He’s so far totaled 34 points, split evenly, in 87 career appearances.

Robertson will be joined on the absentee list by defender Jake McCabe (upper-body) and utility forward Calle Jarnkrok (lower-body), who are bearing through day-to-day injuries of their own per a team announcement. Both players have only played in two games this preseason, and neither scored a point.

McCabe proved the healthier of the two in 2023-24, though a groin injury held him out of nine games in the year’s first half. He scored a career-high eight goals and 28 points in his remaining 73 games, while averaging over-20 minutes of ice time for the first time since the 2021-22 season. Jarnkrok’s role wasn’t as substantial, instead spending his time rotating through the team’s third line. He recorded 10 goals and 21 points in 52 games, near-perfectly half of his scoring totals from last year.

All three players seem to be locks for Toronto’s lineup when healthy, plenty of reason to be cautious with just one preseason matchup against Detroit remaining on their calendar. They’ll now each look to heal quickly, in preparation for the Leafs’ season opener against Montreal on October 9th.

Maple Leafs Re-Sign Nicholas Robertson

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The Maple Leafs have re-signed restricted free agent winger Nicholas Robertson to a one-year deal worth $875K, per a team announcement.

Robertson, who turns 23 tomorrow, has been the subject of trade rumors ever since a report from Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic on the eve of free agency indicated he’d requested out of Toronto and had “no plans to re-sign with the Leafs this summer.” His name was also briefly mentioned in trade talks last season after a February report that indicated the Leafs were willing to listen to offers for the winger, but he wasn’t moved by the deadline.

As late as two weeks ago, Johnston said Robertson was still hoping to be moved. But last week, Luke Fox of Sportsnet said he wasn’t expecting Robertson to be traded before camp, putting a little bit of cold water on public trade speculation.

There’s still time for that suspicion to be wrong before training camps kick off around the league next week. It’s likely now easier than ever for Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving to get a Robertson trade across the finish line, with interested teams now having certainty of his cap hit for 2024-25.

But Robertson could also very well still be a Maple Leaf when opening night rosters are due. Treliving has maintained a positive relationship with Robertson by keeping in contact with him while exploring potential moves this summer, Darren Dreger of TSN reports, adding that new bench boss Craig Berube will help give the young winger a fresh start.

If he does end up sticking around, Robertson has a legitimate chance at a breakout season. While he was no longer technically a rookie, 2023-24 was his first true full NHL campaign. The 2019 second-round pick answered the bell with 14 goals and 13 assists for 27 points in 56 games while averaging just 11:23 per game with minimal power play time.

At 5v5, those numbers made Robertson one of the league’s most efficient scorers last season. His 1.34 goals per 60 minutes ranked 17th in the league, putting him on par with stars like Boston’s David Pastrňák and Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor.

There will likely be some regression from last year’s 14.6 shooting percentage in 2024-25, but an increase in ice time and special teams usage under Berube should help negate a drop in point-per-game production. He was on pace for 40 points had he played all 82 games last season, a figure he could very well build upon if he begins to see spot duty in the top six. After Tyler Bertuzzi left for the Blackhawks in free agency and with Matthew Knies expected to get an early crack at first-line duties alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, there’s a second-line spot up for grabs with William Nylander and John Tavares that could be Robertson’s for the taking.

A one-year pact makes Robertson an RFA again next summer, still without arbitration rights. The Maple Leafs now have just over $400K in projected cap space with one open roster spot, per PuckPedia.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to report the Leafs were expected to announce a deal for Robertson today.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Canadian Notes: Robertson, Perfetti, Demko

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Toronto Maple Leafs winger Nicholas Robertson has emerged as a top name on the trade market headed into training camp, following reports that he’s still hoping to start the year on a new team. But Sportsnet’s Luke Fox shared he isn’t expecting the recent momentum to spark a trade before the Leafs kick off camp, citing Robertson’s lack of much negotiating power.

Robertson’s name has floated around trade rumors since last season’s Trade Deadline and peaked with a formal trade request at the start of free agency. But nothing has come together yet, placing Robertson in a mix of young, shoot-first wingers on the trade market, alongside the likes of Arthur Kaliyev (link) and Connor McMichael (link).

Robertson played in his first full NHL season this year, though it only resulted in 56 games and a third-line role. He showed flashes of strong play, ultimately scoring 14 goals and 27 points. That brings his career totals up to 34 points, split evenly, in 87 games – commendable production for a former second-round pick and in line with Kaliyev and McMichael. That lack of distinction might make Robertson a tougher sale so close to the season. That is if the Leafs even choose to fulfill his trade request – which seems growingly unlikely as the team’s brass continues sharing excitement over Robertson’s potential in a growing role.

More notes from around the league:

  • The Winnipeg Jets are one of many teams still negotiating with top RFAs, needing to work out a deal for winger Cole Perfetti after he managed a stout 29 goals and 75 points in 140 NHL games on his entry-level contract. The Athletic’s Murat Ates took to projecting what Perfetti’s next deal could look like given his minimal experience in Winnipeg’s top-six. Ates drew a strong comparison to Ottawa’s negotiations with Shane Pinto, which ultimately ended in a two-year, $7.5MM bridge contract. Pinto also has 140 games of NHL experience and 70 total points, earned while planting his feet as Ottawa’s third-line center. That’s proven a more reliable role than Perfetti’s earned up to this point, though Ates reasoned that the two are comparable enough to earn Perfetti a similar bridge deal.
  • Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko has reportedly returned to the ice, shares CHEK Sports’ Rick Dhaliwal, who added that the starting goaltender could be healthy enough to participate in training camp. The Canucks were previously prepared for Demko to sit out of the team’s opening camp as he recovered from a groin injury taking longer than expected to heal. That’s certainly a timely update, with Vancouver recently sharing that Arturs Silovs – Demko’s presumed backup – is also bearing through a lower-body injury. The Canucks have been connected to free agent goaltenders like Kevin Lankinen but could be waiting out Demko’s early steps back before they make any signings official.

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