The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.
Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Pacific Division
The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the upstart Pacific Division:
Winners
Anaheim Ducks:
- Acquired Patrick Eaves from Dallas Stars for conditional second-round pick
The Ducks had one real need at the deadline and that was another top six winger. By getting ahead of the market and making the deal for Eaves earlier this week, Anaheim was already a winner at the deadline. The conditional second-rounder, which can become a first, is a steep price. However, given that Eaves is having a career year, the market value had yet to be set, and the Ducks desperation had grown due to the Antoine Vermette suspension, they were right to swing a deal when they had the chance. It was a quiet deadline day in Anaheim, but this is still a team that could make a lot of noise down the stretch.
Arizona Coyotes:
- Acquired 2017 third-round pick and conditional 2018 fifth-round pick from Calgary Flames for Michael Stone
- Acquired 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick, conditional 2019 fourth-round pick, and Grayson Downing from Minnesota Wild for Martin Hanzal, Ryan White, and 2017 fourth-round pick
- Acquired Teemu Pulkkinen from Minnesota Wild for “future considerations”
- Acquired Joe Whitney from Colorado Avalanche for Brandon Ranford
The Coyotes messed up by not trading Radim Vrbata (and might have been able to get more for Stone), but put that aside and what they were able to get from the Minnesota Wild is pretty extraordinary. The team wanted to re-sign Hanzal, but when talks fell apart, it became a foregone conclusion that he would be moved. Yet, that inevitability never drove the prices down and the Wild ended up offering an amazing deal for the career Coyote. The Avalanche should take note because this is how you work the trade deadline as one the league’s worst teams. In exchange for impending free agents who were not coming back in Hanzal and Stone, Arizona ends up with five picks and two prospects (assuming, as it often does, that “future considerations” means nothing) and the team has suffered almost no loss. If GM John Chayka has decided to deal Vrbata, he likely would have added another pair of good picks to that mix, but as it stands, the Coyotes still did pretty well.
Pacific Notes: Marleau, Flames, Domingue
San Jose forward Patrick Marleau has seen his stock rise in recent weeks after a relatively quiet start to the season. Accordingly, talk has turned as to whether or not the team will look to sign him beyond this season. As Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News suggests though, a decision on that probably wouldn’t come until after the year. The same can be said for center Joe Thornton, another pending unrestricted free agent.
As is likely to be the case with a lot of potential UFAs in the next few months, the expansion draft will play a role. Neither veteran has a no-move clause so the Sharks could leave them exposed, allowing them to protect some other players. Then, after the draft is completed, they could look at giving them an extension. While it’s believed that Thornton is seeking a three year deal, there is no indication yet on how long of a contract that the 37 year old Marleau would be looking for.
Elsewhere in the Pacific:
- While the Flames are among the NHL leaders in spending on their blueline this season (and that doesn’t include Ladislav Smid’s $3.5MM on LTIR), they have a glaring weakness on their back end which is holding them back, argues Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton comprise a high-end top three but the team is lacking a quality number four to have that unit take another step forward. Recently, Deryk Engelland (who Francis reports the team would like to sign to a contract extension, likely after the expansion draft) has moved into a top four spot but he’s better suited as a third pairing option. Calgary may be able to add a rental player to help now but will probably have to wait until the offseason to add a player that would fill that role long-term.
- After faring relatively well in the second half last season due to an injury to Mike Smith, Coyotes goaltender Louis Domingue has struggled considerably so far this year, writes Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic. Among goalies to play at least 22 games this season, he has the lowest save percentage (.895) and the second highest goals against average (3.29). With Smith now healthy, Domingue’s playing time has dropped considerably which likely is contributing to the struggles. Goalie coach Jon Elkin suggests that his struggles are more from adapting to being a full-time NHL player for the first time. At any rate, with Arizona well out of the playoff picture, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the younger Domingue play more in the weeks ahead which should help turn his season around somewhat.
Matt Bartkowski Expected To Sign With Calgary
The strange career arc of Matt Bartkowski continues. The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver reported this morning that Bartkowski has been released from his minor league contract with the AHL’s Providence Bruins. Bartkowksi had two goals and eight assists in 34 games for the P-Bruins, and had been somewhat underwhelming at both ends of the ice. Just when you think that maybe that’s it for the 28-year-old’s pro hockey career, there’s this follow-up tweet from Divver: Bartkowski will sign with the Calgary Flames. Divver adds that deal is expected to be a two-year, two-way contract. However, the Flames have since announced that (for now) Bartkowski is just on a professional tryout.
If you don’t know much about Bartkowski you’re not alone. After all, he was on a minor-league contract this season. Yet, just a few years ago, Bartkowski’s career was trending in a very different direction. A seventh-round selection of the Florida Panthers in 2008, Bartkowski’s rights were traded to the Boston Bruins along with Dennis Seidenberg at the 2010 Trade Deadline. Bartkowski left Ohio State University after the 2009-10 season to join his new organization. In his first three pro seasons, Bartkowski was an impressive two-way threat in the AHL for the Providence Bruins, and each year would earn some play time in Boston as well. In 2013-14, Bartkowski finally earned a role with the Bruins and somewhat burst on to the scene with 18 assists and a very solid +22 rating in 64 games. Bartkowski appeared to have the makings of a top-six NHL defenseman, and Bruins Assistant GM Jim Benning thought so too. After another year in Boston with a reduced role and less production, Bartkowski became an unrestricted free agent and bolted for Vancouver, where Benning had taken over as GM of the Cancuks. Bartkowski played in a career-high 80 games with the Canucks in 2015-16, going from zero career goals to six by the end of the season and adding 12 assists along the way. However, the uptick in offense came with a bit of a breakdown in defense. While still a physical player, he became somewhat of a liability in his own end, finishing the season at -19 and losing ice time as the year progressed. Vancouver chose not to re-sign Bartkowski this summer and the blue liner saw little interest before returning to his roots with a PTO-turned-contract with the Providence Bruins.
Now, in a wild twist, he’ll be back in the NHL. Bartkowski was reportedly on the ice for Flames practice this morning and ready to begin his PTO. Calgary isn’t exactly desperate for defense with Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton, Dennis Wideman, and Deryk Engelland in the fold, but what they don’t have is anyone they’re willing to lose in the upcoming Expansion Draft. If Divver is right, and Bartkowski’s PTO is a front for an eventual two-year contract, that is a very strategic move by GM Brad Treliving. As we recently discussed, the Flames would have to expose one of Giordano, Brodie, and Hamilton if they made no further moves before June 21st to meet the quota of having one defenseman available to the Vegas Golden Knights that has term on his contract and 40 NHL games played this season or 70 NHL games over the past two years. Bartkowski presents a very rare opportunity; he was on a minor league contract and could be acquired without having to give anything up in a trade and he played in 80 games just last year, fulfilling the games played requirement. If the Flames hand Bartkowski a two-year deal as Divver suspects, he immediately qualifies to be exposed even if he doesn’t play a single NHL game this season. This could be a genius maneuver by Treliving and is worth following over the next week or two.
Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Defense and Goaltending
This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need:
Calgary Flames – Defensemen
As currently constituted, the Flames would be forced to expose a great defenseman in the Expansion Draft. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are clearly the three blue liners that Calgary wants to protect from exposure. However, they are also the only three that meet the “40/70” mandate of having a player with term on their contact who has played 40 games this season or 70 games combined over the last two seasons. Each team is required to expose one defenseman that meets these qualifications, but the Flames don’t have one outside of their core three. Both Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland meet the game totals, but are unrestricted free agents. Jyrki Jokipakka is an unrestricted free agent. No other defenseman in the entire organization who has played more than two pro seasons is signed beyond 2017. The Flames only option right now, assuming they have no interest in bringing Wideman or Engelland back, is to extend Jokipakka for the purpose of making him available by the June 21st draft date. However, if they want to take their time negotiating a new deal with the centerpiece of their return for Kris Russell, or if they’re worried that he is more likely to be selected with a new deal than as a free agent, the Flames must look to strike a deal for a qualifying defenseman. They will need blue line help this off-season anyway, so look for Calgary to be major players in quality veteran defenseman with term, should any hit the market.
Carolina Hurricanes – Defensemen
Carolina is in a similar position to Calgary, but don’t even have a choice of three defensemen to choose from if they don’t make a change; the Hurricanes would have to expose (and would surely lose) All-Star Justin Faulk. That, of course, won’t happen, but the ‘Canes must make a move to avoid it. Carolina’s highly-touted young defense is actually what creates this problem. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin are all amazingly still in their second pro seasons and exempt from selection. Ron Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent and a prime trade candidate. That leaves three others who could possibly fit the bill for GM Ron Francis. 23-year-old Ryan Murphy has a year left on his contract, but remains 24 games shy of reaching the 40/70 benchmark. Would the Hurricanes play Murphy, who has all but been cast aside in Carolina, for the remainder of the season just to expose him? The other option is to extend an impending free agent like Klas Dahlbeck, who otherwise qualifies, or Matt Tennyson, who needs just ten more games to reach the mark. Neither is likely to be selected by Vegas, but would at least cover the requirement for the ‘Canes. The question then becomes whether the team is willing to extend either one when they are so loaded with young talent on the blue line that they would rather not have blocked by mediocre players. Acquiring a qualifying defenseman who presents an upgrade over the pair, but not a surefire expansion pick may make more sense.
Philadelphia Flyers – Goalies
As has been touched on before, teams with goalie qualification problems have been easy to spot this season. Goaltenders don’t have a games-played mandate for exposure, but must have term on their contracts. Going into this season, the Montreal Canadiens had no protection for Carey Price, but fixed that by giving backup Al Montoya an extension, and the Anaheim Ducks had plenty of goalies, but none that qualified other than John Gibson until they extended AHL keeper Dustin Tokarski. The Minnesota Wild decided to follow in the Ducks’ footsteps recently, protecting Devan Dubnyk by extending Alex Stalock rather than backup Darcy Kuemper. That leaves just one team, the Flyers, with goalie problems (what else is new). Their situation is unique though, as Philadelphia is not looking to protect a starter by re-signing or acquiring a backup. Instead, they need to protect prospect Anthony Stolarz. With Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth set to become unrestricted free agents, Stolarz is the only keeper in the system who qualifies for exposure, and Vegas would surely jump on the promising young goaltender. However, neither Mason nor Neuvirth have played nearly well enough this season to warrant an extension of starter-level money, especially when both would be unlikely to be selected in the draft. The Flyers have few options though, as they don’t want to spend substantial trade capital on a new starter for the future, only to watch him be selected by the Knights. The Flyers are likely scouring the NHL for backup-caliber goalies with term on their contracts and on teams who have the flexibility to move them. It’s a narrow search, and if no deal can be made, Philadelphia will have little choice but to overpay to bring back one of their underwhelming NHL keepers.
Stay tuned next week for Part II: Forwards, featuring six more troubled teams
Thanksgiving Trade Market: Defensemen
Many teams view US Thanksgiving – typically around the one-quarter mark of the season – as the benchmark for evaluating their teams and determining what areas need to be addressed. One area that most teams are always looking to shore up is their defense corps. Some teams will be after top four blueliners while others will be after depth options. There isn’t a big list of players available at this time but here’s a closer look at those that have had their names out there in trade talks so far.
Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – On top of shopping goalie Jaroslav Halak, the 25 year old blueliner is also believed to be available. He is a solid stay-at-home second pairing option although he doesn’t bring much offensively to the table. He has a manageable cap hit of a little under $2MM this season but his qualifying offer in the summer jumps to $2.9MM due to the back-loaded nature of his contract.
Deryk Engelland (Calgary) – The Flames made him available earlier this month but there hasn’t been much interest in the 34 year old. He’s off to a decent start with Calgary this year, picking up four points in 22 games but he has seen his average ice time jump up over 18 minutes a night, a career high for him. He has one year left on his contract with a cap hit of $2.9MM. For teams that are looking for more of a physical presence on their third line, he will be an option although his cap hit is high for his role.
Jack Johnson (Columbus) – The Blue Jackets are believed to be looking to clear some salary and Johnson, who has a cap hit of $4.35MM this season and next, is one of the players GM Jarmo Kekalainen is willing to move. He hasn’t turned in to the top pairing offensive threat that earned saw him drafted third overall by Carolina in 2005 but he has averaged more than 24 minutes per night the last four years. His minutes are down a bit this year (just under 22 per game) but he is still a top four option in a market largely devoid of them.
Ryan Murphy (Carolina) – The former first round pick (12th overall in 2011) has failed to lock down a full-time role in this, his fourth NHL season. In an effort to get him some game action, the Hurricanes recently sent Murphy to the AHL on a conditioning stint. He has had considerable offensive success at the AHL level (66 points in 86 games) but that has yet to translate to much NHL success (36 points in 128 contests). He has another year past this one remaining on his deal with a cap hit just under $800K and could be a fit for a team looking for some mobility and offense from their back end. However, it’s believed that GM Ron Francis is looking to package him with other pieces for a defensive upgrade.
Kevin Shattenkirk (St. Louis) – Back at the draft, it was widely expected that the Blues would deal Shattenkirk but no deal came to fruition. With the team already having Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester on big money, long-term deals beyond this season, the expectation is that he will be moved at some point during the season. He’s off to a strong start this year (14 points in 21 games) and will almost assuredly be the most expensive to acquire among potentially available defenders.
Michael Stone (Arizona) – Last week, Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal noted (via Twitter) that the pending UFA is on the market. The Coyotes sit last in the league in the standings so it’s not surprising that they’d be looking to move any pending free agents. Stone has dealt with two separate injuries this season and has played in just nine games as a result but had 36 points last season while playing over 22 minutes per game. With a cap hit and salary of $4MM, there should be a lot of suitors for his services.
West Notes: Flames On The Trade Block, Connor, Duchene
The Calgary Flames have made defenseman Deryk Engelland and center/left winger Lance Bouma available, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. Neither player appears to be drawing much interest, however.
Engelland is in his third season with the Flames and has four points while averaging a career best 19:10 per night. However, he carries a cap hit that’s a little higher than $2.9MM which is pricey for a player whose reputation is that of a third pairing physical blueliner. However, as a pending unrestricted free agent, there could be more interest as the season progresses and more teams have cap space to work with.
As for Bouma, who currently is on injured reserve for a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury, he is off to a tough start so far this season. In 13 games, he has just one assist although he is averaging over 2.5 hits per game. Back in 2014-15, he had a 16 goal, 34 point campaign that also saw him rank seventh in the league in hits with 264. That offseason, he signed a three year deal with a cap hit of $2.2MM which has the remainder of this year plus one more season to go on it. Given his struggles dating back to last season and the extra year left on his deal, GM Brad Treliving may be hard pressed to find a suitor for Bouma unless he retains salary or takes back another not-so-ideal contract.
Other news from the Western Conference:
- The Jets have placed left winger Kyle Connor on injured reserve, the team announced. He suffered an upper body injury in Sunday’s victory over Los Angeles on a hit from Kyle Clifford. Clifford will not face any supplemental discipline for the hit, one that earned him a five minute major for boarding. Connor, the 17th overall pick in the 2015 draft, has played in all but one of Winnipeg’s games so far this season, collecting four points (1-3-4) while playing 13:31 per game. The team has recalled center Chase De Leo from their minor league affiliate in Manitoba to take Connor’s spot on the roster. De Leo has three goals and four assists in 12 AHL games this year.
- Avalanche center Matt Duchene was expected to skate in advance of Colorado’s practice today but those plans were aborted after Duchene didn’t feel he was ready to practice, notes Mike Chambers of the Denver Post. Accordingly, he will miss his second straight game on Tuesday against the Kings. Duchene is Colorado’s team leader in goals (six) and points (11) in the early going this season.