Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: McCarron, Chabot, Matthews, Nylander
Continuing on with Pro Hockey Rumors 2016-17 rookie profiles, we remain in the Atlantic Division. Included among today’s batch of first-year players is the most recent #1 overall draft choice, Auston Matthews. You can find the previous editions here, here and here.
Michael McCarron (Montreal) – A quick look at Montreal’s depth chart shows the Canadiens could surely use some size up front and McCarron is someone who boasts that trait in spades. At 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds. McCarron would easily be the largest forward on the ice for Montreal by a wide margin. But size isn’t the only quality he brings to the table; McCarron can also add some offense.
In his first taste of professional hockey, McCarron recorded 17 goals and 38 points for the St. John’s IceCaps in the AHL. That’s solid production for a first-year pro who played most of the season at 20-years-old.
McCarron would also get his first taste of the NHL playing 20 games with the Canadiens and scoring his first career big league goal. He also had a -10 plus-minus rating and although plus-minus ratings aren’t necessarily a good indicator of two-way prowess, it does suggest McCarron could use more polishing in the AHL. However, if he does get his chance in Montreal thi year, McCarron should at least add physicality and skill to the team’s bottom-six.
Thomas Chabot (Ottawa) – The Ottawa Senators used their first-round pick in 2015 on skilled, two-way defenseman Thomas Chabot and there is a decent chance he debuts this season in Canada’s capital. Scouting reports credit Chabot for being quick-thinking and an excellent skater; both traits that will fit well into today’s style of play in the NHL. But if Chabot wants to make an impact in the NHL he’ll have to ramp up the intensity.
Ottawa assistant GM Randy Lee felt Chabot’s performance at the team’s summer development camp was not up to par and evidently communicated that to the top prospect, as written about by Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun.
“I thought Thomas should have been a bit more intense, I thought Thomas should have dominated. I think Thomas should look at the landscape and see we’ve got six signed defencemen (to NHL contracts) … Thomas and I have talked about it.”
Clearly the Ottawa organization has high expectations for Chabot and will give him every chance to make the team this season. The Senators do have six NHL-caliber blue liners under contract, all of whom with significant professional experience. Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Marc Mathot and Dion Phaneuf should hold down spots in the club’s top-four with Mark Borowiecki and Chris Wideman forming the third pair. Of the group, Wideman has the least amount of NHL experience with just 64 games played. However he does have nearly three seasons of AHL experience under his belt as well. Chabot will have his work cut out for him if he wants to suit up for the Senators this season.
Auston Matthews (Toronto) – Matthews, the first overall choice in the June’s entry draft, will be an early favorite for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. He is considered a future face-of-the-franchise player and while maybe not quite on the same level with Connor McDavid, last year’s top pick, in terms of being a “generational” talent, Matthews is still an exciting prospect.
Matthews already demonstrates excellent two-way ability and at 6-foot-2, 216 pounds has the requisite size to handle the rigors of a long NHL season. Additionally, his experience playing professionally against full-grown men in Switzerland should help facilitate his transition to the NHL. The Leafs have lacked a truly elite center since Mats Sundin left the club following the 2007-2008 campaign but all signs point to Matthews quickly filling that void.
William Nylander (Toronto) – The Maple Leafs have done an excellent job of adding high-end young talent to the organization in recent years and Nylander is part of the wave of top prospects preparing to lead Toronto to the top of the standings. Nylander reached the NHL last season and held his own in 22 games scoring six goals and 13 points while averaging 16:20 of ice time per contest.
Nylander also excelled playing for the Toronto Marlies in the AHL, tallying 18 goals and 45 points in 45 regular season games. In the postseason he added seven goals in 14 contests for the Marlies. It’s expected he’ll have a spot to lose in the Leafs’ top-four to open the season and has the skill to be one of the club’s top offensive producers.
Hockey apparently runs in the Nylander family blood as William’s father Michael carved out a solid NHL career playing for seven NHL clubs over a 15-year career. Alexander Nylander, William’s brother, was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the first round of the 2016 entry draft.
Quotable: Hall, McDavid, Karlsson
Various NHL players are in Toronto for the BioSteel Camp going on from August 22nd-25th, including Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin and Connor McDavid. TSN caught up with a variety of players talking about different topics.
Hall on joining New Jersey:
I’m excited for a new opportunity, a new start, a new group of guys and a new city. I enjoyed my time in Edmonton, but I’m trying just to look forward at the situation in New Jersey. It’s going to be a lot different, I’m looking forward to maybe having a little more anonymity.
On the possibility of playing with former junior teammate Adam Henrique:
I get asked that all the time, and you know lines switch all the time in a season. There are going to be a few guys I play with most of the time. Adam is certainly a great player and we had a lot of success in junior so that’d be a lot of fun to play with him. In that top-six in Jersey there are a lot of guys that have skill and look like they’d be great linemates to play with.
Oilers Notes: Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, McDavid, Lagesson
The Edmonton Oilers are next up on Pro Hockey Talk’s daily team series and Jason Brough identifies summer signing Milan Lucic as the Oiler under pressure for 2016-17. Considering the large contract given to Lucic and the expectation he will assume the first-line left wing spot vacated following the trade of former #1 overall pick Taylor Hall, there is certainly plenty of pressure on the menacing forward.
One could argue that Adam Larsson, the defenseman the Oilers dealt Hall for and who is expected to be a viable top pair blue liner for a team desperate to improve on the back end, is under even more pressure than Lucic. Lucic is already a finished product for all intents and purposes, and with four 20-goal seasons on his resume already, Lucic needs only perform at the level he has been over the last several seasons.
On the other hand, Larsson has yet to fulfill his potential completely, and needs to take the next step in his development in order to meet expectations. If the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot this season they need Larsson to become the player they believe he can be.
More on the Oilers…..
- In another piece on Pro Hockey Talk, Brough talks about the up-and-down season Cam Talbot had in his first year as a starter in the league. As Brough notes, Talbot got off to a slow start through November but rebounded in December and January posting save percentages of 93.4% and 93.2% respectively during those months. Given the somewhat inconsistent nature of Talbot’s performance and his relative lack of starting experience, Brough feels the goaltending situation is still uncertain in Edmonton. It appears Edmonton will go into the season with journeyman backstop Jonas Gustavsson as Talbot’s backup between the pipes (all team depth charts can be found at Roster Resource). Given that likelihood, Edmonton will need Talbot to play at the level he did in the latter part of last season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
- Bruce McCurdy, writing for the Edmonton Journal, discusses the progress of Edmonton defense prospect William Lagesson. Lagesson, the Oilers 4th round pick in 2014, played last season as a freshman for a U-Mass program that struggled to a 8-24-4 mark and was outscored by 62 goals. The Swedish rearguard led the teams defense corps recording a -6 plus-minus rating. Edmonton obviously needs all the good defense prospects they can accumulate and it appears Lagesson is developing into one.
- Meanwhile, David Staples, also covering the Oilers for the Edmonton Journal, penned a piece on how one publication, hockey prognosticator The Hockey Forecaster, is projecting Connor McDavid to have a Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin-like impact on his team’s offensive output. In their rookie campaigns, Crosby and Ovechkin helped their teams score 53 and 44 more goals respectively than they potted the previous season. The Oilers are predicted to tally a total of 237 goals, which would be an increase of 38 markers over their 2015-16 season total. The Hockey Forecaster also predicts career seasons from Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom, among others. Staples writes that those projections might be a stretch but recognizes that an elite talent such as McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin can have that type of impact for a team. Assuming the predictions even come close to fruition then Edmonton might be able to outscore their way to postseason contention.
Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.
We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:
- The Flames have the most cap space in their division, and second-most in the league behind the Hurricanes. However they still have to sign Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, which will likely take up most of the $14.96MM of space they currently have.
- Anze Kopitar‘s new extension will make him the highest paid player in the NHL this season. He’ll make $14MM in real dollars this season; his $10MM cap hit is second to only Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Kopitar will likely only enjoy the status of highest paid in the division until Connor McDavid‘s entry-level contract expires in 2018.
- The Pacific features the four highest-paid pending-UFAs in Pavel Datsyuk ($7.5MM), Joe Thornton ($6.75MM), Patrick Marleau ($6.66MM), and Ryan Miller ($6MM). However, Datsyuk has left the NHL and will not be paid by Arizona, despite counting against the cap.
By the numbers:
- Anaheim Ducks
Cap Space Remaining: $8,407,500
Greatest Cap Hit: Corey Perry: $8.625MM - Arizona Coyotes
Cap Space Remaining: $8,847,875
Greatest Cap Hit: Pavel Datsyuk: $7.5MM (inactive)/ Mike Smith: $5.666MM (active) - Calgary Flames
Cap Space Remaining: $14,969,600
Greatest Cap Hit: Mark Giordano: $6.75MM - Edmonton Oilers
Cap Space Remaining: $9,238,833
Greatest Cap Hit: Jordan Eberle/ Milan Lucic/ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: $6MM - Los Angeles Kings
Cap Space Remaining: $1,154,773
Greatest Cap Hit: Anze Kopitar: $10MM - San Jose Sharks
Cap Space Remaining: $995,832
Greatest Cap Hit: Joe Thornton: $6.75MM - Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space Remaining: $2,771,250
Greatest Cap Hit: Henrik Sedin/ Daniel Sedin: $7MM
Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.
NHL Announces Heritage Classic Schedule, Legends Roster
Outdoor games are becoming more and more prevelant in today’s NHL, and the league announced today the schedule for the first of such games in the 2016-17 season. The Heritage Classic will be held in Winnipeg this season, and will see the Jets face off against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers – who were part of the very first Heritage Classic – on October 23rd, just a few weeks into the season.
Two legends teams will play on the Saturday (Oct 22), with Kevin Lowe and Dale Hawerchuk (both of whom will play in the game) announcing the rosters today. The spectacular Oilers legends squad will feature:
Dave Semenko
Wayne Gretzky (Captain)*
Mark Messier*
Glenn Anderson*
Paul Coffey*
Snapshots: St. Louis, Barrie, Marner
Sixteen years ago today was one to remember for the Tampa Bay Lightning, as on July 31st, 2000 they signed Martin St. Louis after he’d been released by the Calgary Flames. One of the biggest little-men in NHL history, the 5’8″ St. Louis would go on to score 953 points for the Lightning, and helped lead them to their first and only Stanley Cup championship in 2004. Their all-time leading scorer, and a two-time Olympian, St. Louis finished his career with the New York Rangers and is currently #71 on the all-time points list. He’s got a good case for a hall-of-fame induction eventually, and it’s all because Tampa Bay gave the diminutive forward a second-chance in the NHL.
- The only player to have reached salary arbitration this year, Tyson Barrie had his hearing on Friday to determine his cost for the upcoming season. The arbitrator had 48 hours to make her decision, and that window will come to an end at 1:30pm today central time. We profiled Barrie’s case last week, and showed how well he compares to some of the elite offensive defensemen in the league. Now, with only a few hours left (as of this writing) to negotiate a deal, it’s coming down to the wire for the two sides to reconcile their perceived differences.
- Mitch Marner, the sometimes-forgotten uber-prospect in the Maple Leafs system is in an interesting situation this season; the 19-year old is too young for the AHL, and must either crack the NHL roster or go back to junior to play for the OHL’s London Knights. When asked about his possible play at this year’s World Junior Championship, Marner intimated that he’s doing everything he can to stay in the NHL. “It’s not up to me. If I am in the OHL, then I am going to play and look forward to it.” Fellow top-prospect Dylan Strome was much less reserved about his hopes for next year when he was asked the same thing by Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun: “I feel like I’m done with junior, and don’t want to be there next year, but if Arizona thinks it’s best for me, I don’t have a choice.” Strome and Marner were picked third and fourth overall in the 2015 draft, following Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, who have both already made an impact at the NHL level.
Oilers Notes: Captain Candidates, Larsson
Who will be the Oilers new captain? Chris Wescott writes that the Oilers have a multitude of players who could sew the C on the sweater. Last season, Andrew Ference, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all served as alternate captains by committee and definitely deserve a look. But what about Connor McDavid?
While Wescott confirmed that head coach Todd McLellan would indeed name a captain this season instead of having a plethora of alternate captains, Jared Clinton of the Hockey News penned an article back in April anointing McDavid as the most logical choice for captain. Clinton writes that McLellan extolls the winning and leadership virtues that McDavid displays and goes onto report that the 19-year-old center didn’t crumble under the expectations of a success-starved city weighing on his shoulders.
Clinton speculates that had McDavid played a full season (he broke his clavicle in November which sidelined him for close to three months), his projected performance could have been around 80 points. Though McDavid appeared in 45 games, he was slightly over a point-per-game player as he notched 48 (16-32). Aside from performance, both his head coach and general manager have vouched for his leadership qualities, making him the favorite. Naming a young captain wouldn’t be an oddity as Clinton points out that Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby, and Gabriel Landeskog all wore the C very early in their respective careers.
In other Oilers news:
- Wescott also reports that McLellan expects newly acquired defenseman Adam Larsson to play against top competition come October. McLellan doesn’t expect Larsson to be a force on the score sheet, but instead, expects that he will “grow his game” along with the rest of the younger Oiler players. McLellan also urged patience with the young Swedish defenseman who many forget is only 23. The Oilers bench boss is more interested in making sure Edmonton’s new acquisition is comfortable in his new surroundings, and isn’t measured simply by who the Oilers traded to get him. Instead, Wescott writes, McLellan will only add pressure as Larsson’s comfort level increases.
The Holdup On Auston Matthews Contract
As discussed here, Auston Matthews is one of only four unsigned players selected in the top-10 of this June’s entry draft. Two of those players, Clayton Keller (7th overall to Arizona) and Tyson Jost (10th overall to Colorado) have firm commitments to NCAA programs and are not expected to ink their Entry Level Contracts (ELC) until they are ready to turn pro. That leaves Matthews and #5 overall choice Olli Juolevi as the only players in the top-10 realistically expected to sign their first pro contracts that have not already done so.
Kevin McGran writes about the impasse with Matthews here.
Lou Lamoriello is a savvy, veteran GM who usually closes deals on his terms and we already know he isn’t particularly keen on including performance bonuses in rookie contracts. However in this instance, he may have to give ground. Matthews was the consensus #1 overall draft choice in June and each of last year’s top-two selections, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, received the maximum bonus value permitted under the CBA ($2.85MM on top of the $925K in base salary).
As McGran discusses, the implications of Toronto sticking to their guns may be felt far beyond this single negotiation. Veteran players, both who currently suit up for the Leafs and future free agent targets, may not think too highly of the organization trying to squeeze a few measly bucks from a young player widely-hailed as the future of the franchise..
Additionally, as we’ve seen in Colorado with Tyson Barrie and Ryan O’Reilly, this type of contentious negotiation now can potentially lead to bigger problems later. Should Matthews fulfill his promise as an elite, two-way #1 center, extending him upon the completion of his entry level contract might prove to be far more difficult should Toronto continue to hold firm on bonus demands.
Granted, there is still plenty of time for an agreement to be reached (roughly two months) but this should have been a relatively straight-forward negotiation. The second overall pick, Patrik Laine, signed for $3.575MM, assuming he meets his bonuses. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi, chosen third and fourth overall, respectively, can each earn up to $3.425MM per season. It’s hard to imagine any team making a logical case for the #1 overall pick to not maximize his earning potential when each of the players selected after him have contracts in place that can pay out close to the maximum amount.
Like everyone else, I expect a deal to be wrapped up in plenty of time for Matthews to begin the season with the Leafs. However, I can understand why Toronto fans might be feeling a little uneasy with the overall tenor and pace of negotiations.
Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers were expected to be more competitive in 2015-16, thanks to phenom Connor McDavid, a new coach and GM, and off-season acquisitions Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, and Griffin Reinhart. Unfortunately, McDavid was hurt in early November, and by the time he returned in February, the Oilers were out of the playoff picture. Reinhart struggled early and spent the middle part of the season in the AHL. Top defender Oscar Klefbom spent more than half the year on IR after a broken knuckle and two successive staph infections. The Oilers struggled and finished 29th, mainly because of injuries and a porous defence. Stop me if you’ve heard this story before.
GM Peter Chiarelli has made several moves, with mixed results. Acquiring Talbot for picks has given the Oilers their starter for the next several seasons. Sekera is a solid second-pairing defenceman, but the Oilers are still missing two top 4 defensive options. The Reinhart trade is tough to call at this time, because of the Oilers depth of left-handed defensemen and Reinhart not being NHL-ready.
Adding Eric Gryba, Zack Kassian, and Patrick Maroon made the Oilers harder to play against, something that has sorely been missing in Oil Country. Big center Leon Draisaitl rebounded from a tough rookie season to put up 51 points despite spending a month in the AHL. Former 6th round pick in 2010 Brandon Davidson made the team as the 8th defenceman and played his way into a top 4 role, earning an extension and praise from around the league.
Chiarelli compared the team’s improvement to a “taller midget”.
Cap space: $10.3MM, 22 players under contract
Key RFAs: none
Other RFAs: W Iiro Pakarinen, D Jordan Oesterle, D Adam Clendening, LW Luke Gazdic, D David Musil
Clendening and Gazdic were not qualified and will become UFAs.
Key UFAs: none
Other UFAs: D Eric Gryba, RW Adam Cracknell, D Adam Pardy, D Niki Nikitin
Outlook: The Oilers don’t have any key players to re-sign, but need to drastically improve their back end through trades or free agency. Watch for Chiarelli to be involved in a few dealings around the draft.
High profile names like Travis Hamonic, PK Subban, Tyson Barrie, Jacob Trouba, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Seth Jones, Jason Demers, and Justin Faulk have all been linked to the Oilers at different points. While the ask for those players would be high, the Oilers have organizational depth in NHL forwards and prospect defensemen.
Besides defence, the Oilers need a right-handed centre with skill, more depth on right wing, and a backup goalie to allow Laurent Brossoit to develop further in the AHL. Big UFA winger Milan Lucic is a player of interest, as he would allow the Oilers to trade one of Jordan Eberle or Benoit Pouliot for defensive help.
Former first overall pick Nail Yakupov asked for a trade, and will likely be dealt on the draft floor. TSN 1260’s Jason Gregor reported the Ducks and Oilers were close to a trade involving Yakupov and Pouliot heading to Anaheim, but Pouliot’s season-ending injury ended those talks. In the end, Maroon was sent to Edmonton for project prospect Martin Gernat and a 4th round pick.
Former captain Andrew Ference will likely spend the year on LTIR, freeing up an additional $3.25MM under the cap. Ference underwent hip surgery in March.
Fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi will likely make the team, but could spend some time in Bakersfield to adjust to North America. In any case, don’t expect any other rookies to crack the opening night roster, but college free agent signing Drake Caggiula and AHLers Oesterle, Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev, Bogdan Yakimov, and Jujhar Khaira should see some NHL time during the season. Finnish winger Jere Sallinen was signed from the KHL and could be a dark horse to make the team as an extra forward.
Expansion draft wise, the Oilers are likely able to protect everyone they want to on their current roster with the exception of Brossoit, but he won’t be among the top 3 goaltenders available based on his struggles at the NHL level. Issues could come up after a summer of improving the roster, but Chiarelli won’t be too concerned about that yet.
NHL Award Recipients
The NHL Awards were given out tonight in Las Vegas, with a little bit extra fanfare due to the upcoming expansion team. Here is the full list of winners, with the top two runners-up in each category:
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Ted Lindsay Award (most outstanding player as voted by the players)
General Manager of the Year
- Jim Rutherford
- Brian McClellen
- Jim Nill
Masterton Trophy (perseverance and dedication to hockey)
- Jaromir Jagr
- Mats Zucarello
- Pascal Dupuis
Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award
Norris Trophy (top defenceman)
Selke Trophy (forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game)
Jack Adams Award (top head coach)
- Barry Trotz
- Gerard Gallant
- Lindy Ruff
Lady Byng Trophy (player best combining sportsmanship and ability)
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Hart Trophy (most valuable player to his team)
Congratulations to all the winners, and the teams who employ them.