Morning Notes: Price, Soshnikov, GMs
Carey Price says he would be in the lineup if tonight’s Montreal Canadiens game was a playoff contest. Price hasn’t played since suffering a lower-body injury in warm-up before the Canadiens’ November 2nd game, and doesn’t have a clear timeline yet.
Skating by himself once again, he’ll need to rejoin the team in practice before suiting up for a game. That slow process is being helped by the play of Charlie Lindgren, who now carries a .964 save percentage through his four starts. The 23-year old Lindgren looks ready to take on at least a backup role in the NHL, which will complicate things with Al Montoya when all three goaltenders are back to full health. Montoya is under contract through next season, but has played poorly in his small sample this year.
- Nikita Soshnikov was called up to the Maple Leafs earlier today because of his KHL clause that would have allowed him to return to Russia, but Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that the team isn’t out of the woods in that respect just yet. The clause allows Soshnikov to request a loan to the KHL at any future point this season if they try to send him back down. That, along with the fact that he’ll become waiver-eligible after playing in three games, complicates things for the Maple Leafs. While Soshnikov has done little offensively in his 67 NHL games (14 points), he is off to a fast start in the AHL this season at nearly a point-per-game pace.
- Sean McIndoe of Sportsnet breaks down the current GMs that are feeling the heat, listing four among the “Smoke, sparks and fire alarms” group. One of those members, John Chayka of the Arizona Coyotes wouldn’t have been considered in trouble a year ago when the team was going through a slow rebuild. That was accelerated this summer when they made some supposed win-now moves like bringing in Derek Stepan and Niklas Hjalmarsson, but it hasn’t paid off at all. The Coyotes have still yet to win a game in regulation, and look even further away from contention than they did before giving up the seventh-overall pick this summer.
Snapshots: 2019 Draft, Kase, Price
Craig Button of TSN takes an early look at the top prospects for the 2019 draft, and leading the pack is Jack Hughes. We’ve mentioned Hughes before at PHR, but his name continues to come up as a potential first-overall pick in the 2019 discussion. The son of former NHL assistant coach and Toronto Maple Leafs Director of Player Development Jim Hughes, the 16-year old is dominating in the US Development Program after an eye-opening season in Toronto midget hockey.
Hughes scored 159 points in 80 games as the captain of the Toronto Marlboros, and is an elite center ice prospect. Amazingly the Hughes family even has a chance to go top-5 in back to back drafts, as eldest brother Quinton Hughes is an outstanding defenseman eligible to be selected in 2018. He’s playing at the University of Michigan already, where he’s put up five points in eight games.
- The Anaheim Ducks have placed Ondrej Kase on injured reserve to join the rest of their injuries, which brings to mind an interesting case going into next summer. Kase is a pending restricted free agent, and has looked early on this season like he’s about to breakout. As a rookie last year he scored just 15 points, but he already has five goals and eight points in 12 games for the injury-ravaged Ducks. Anaheim has over $60MM owed next season to just 13 players, which is going to make things tough in the summer. Kase, Nick Ritchie and Brandon Montour (among others) are all RFAs, and with the injuries all three have been given more opportunity. That could cost the Ducks as the trio heads into the summer with higher counting stats. Too many good players is never a bad thing, but Anaheim will need to be careful with how they distribute their funds.
- Speaking of injured reserve stints, the Montreal Canadiens have moved Carey Price to their IR list. Price hasn’t played since November 2nd so he won’t be kept out any longer than he needs to recover, as the stint will be backdated to cover the seven-day minimum. While you never wish for injury, perhaps this break will be exactly what Price needs to get his season back on track. In his first 11 games, Price registered a save percentage above .900 just three times. For a goaltender who averaged a .928 mark over the last four seasons, his performance so far this year was shockingly unfamiliar.
Atlantic Notes: Price, Spooner
Carey Price is day-to-day with a “minor” injury. That was the message Friday after a Montreal Canadiens’ practice. And normally, the fact that the team’s superstar player is out would be a matter of major concern. However, it probably seems that no one is holding their breath like they normally would. Price, who posted a 2.33 GAA in 62 games a year ago and then proceeded to sign an eight-year, $84MM deal, has definitely had his share of problems this year. Through 11 games, Price has a 3-7-1 record with a 3.77 GAA and a .877 save percentage. Not your ordinary numbers for a prized goalie.
Perhaps a break might fix the goaltender. While much can be made about the Canadiens’ porous defense, the team has high hopes their goalie can figure it out and fix a lot of the team’s problems on his own, according to Arpon Basu of The Athletic (subscription required).
“I have no concern about the fact Carey will find his game and will be a big part of our success,” head coach Claude Julien said. “We know he’s going through a tough time, we won’t hide it. No one is hiding from it. But we know what kind of goalie he is. Unfortunately, a forward or a defenseman can go through something like this and it’s always a little harder to tell because he’s not the last person left to stop a goal. So when it’s a goalie, it’s obviously always worse.”
Basu, however, notes that we’ve seen these struggles before out of Price — in fact, it was just last year. From Dec. 22, to Jan. 21 of last season, Price had a 3-5-3 record with a 3.53 and an .877 save percentage — very similar to his present numbers. He allowed 38 goals in that 11-game span and compared to this span, he’s allowed 39 goals.
The scribe writes that the biggest difference is that his present day numbers are at the beginning of the year and you can’t hide those statistics, but he overcame them to have a dominant season. What he did to break out of that slump a year ago is unknown, but maybe a game or two off will make the difference.
- Mike Lofus of the Providence Journal writes that Boston Bruins center Ryan Spooner, who was expected to miss four to six weeks on Oct. 15 after tearing a groin adductor, skated briefly this morning for the first time since the injury. While nothing official has been said, it’s possible me might be closer to the four-week estimate rather than the six-week estimate. Spooner has only appeared in five games this season, putting up one assist. Last year, the 25-year-old put up 11 goals and 39 assists.
Snapshots: Nyquist, Makar, Price
The Detroit Red Wings have dropped below .500 again with their loss last night to the Ottawa Senators, and the groans from hockey fans in Michigan are beginning again. Yesterday, our Nate Brown took a look at the coaching staff’s part in the sluggish start, and today Craig Custance of The Athletic went in depth on the trade value of a certain first-line asset.
Gustav Nyquist is an interesting piece for the Red Wings, under contract through the end of next season. The 28-year old forward was once one of the hottest scoring threats in the league, registering 48 points in 57 games in the 2013-14 season. That garnered him some Hart Trophy votes and a place on the Swedish Olympic team, but he hasn’t had quite the same impact since. Custance has some great quotes from scouts and front office types around the league on his perceived value, which isn’t as high as it could be if he can find some kind of consistency over the next few months.
- Cale Makar is off to quite a start at UMass reports Craig Button of TSN. The fourth-overall pick of 2017 is a shining light for the Colorado Avalanche in their continued defensive struggles. Makar is the kind of defenseman who can bring you to your feet at any moment, and is starting to adapt to playing against higher competition. It will be interesting to see how long he stays in the college ranks, before being recruited to jump to the NHL with the Avalanche.
- Although it’s clearly not serious, Carey Price wasn’t present at Montreal Canadiens practice today as he nursed a lower-body injury. The team is expected to recall a goaltender and will have Al Montoya start on Saturday night against the Winnipeg Jets. It might be good for Price to get some time off, as he’s struggled mightily through the early part of the season. With an .877 save percentage through 11 games, he’s leading the league in goals allowed and losses. About to start an eight-year, $84MM contract extension next season, the Canadiens need Price to get back to his all-world ways as soon as possible.
Eastern Notes: Bergevin, Skinner, Sproul, Harpur
At 1-6-1, the Montreal Canadiens are off to their worst eight-game start since the 1941-42 season. Sounds shocking. Doesn’t it? Much of the problem is the team’s inability to put the puck in the net as the team is currently ranked last (31st) in the NHL in goals scored at 1.5 per game (just 12 goals scored all year). However, despite that fact, Elliotte Friedman said Saturday on the Headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada (via Emily Sadler of Sportsnet) that the team isn’t going into panic mode just yet.
“It’s the biggest story in the league and probably for no good reasons,” Friedman said Saturday. “I think the sense you get just from looking around is the Canadiens are determined not to make any panic moves.”
Sadler writes that the team’s start looks even worse compared to last year’s phenomenal start to the season when they were 7-0-1 after the first eight games. To make matters worse, the team is also among the worst in goals allowed as they are ranked 29th after averaging 4.13 goals in these first eight games. That’s with the NHL’s top goalie in Carey Price.
Friedman also said that it’s unlikely the team would make a general manger change and get rid of Marc Bergevin, even though Friedman said that four of the last five GM changes the Canadiens have made were in-season changes.
“I don’t get the sense … that there’s any desire to remove Bergevin right now. He’s under contract until 2022,” Friedman said.
- Michael Smith of NHL.com writes that Carolina Hurricanes winger Jeff Skinner, who added his fourth and fifth goals of the season in Saturday’s 4-3 loss to the Dallas Stars is continuing where he left off. Skinner attempted to fuel a comeback with his team down by four goals, but the team fell short. Already a three-time 30-goal scorer, the 25-year-old has been the main offensive firepower for the Hurricanes this season. Smith writes that if you go back to March of last year, Skinner has scored 22 goals in his last 25 games.
- Peter Wallner of MLive.com writes that the Detroit Red Wings traded defenseman Ryan Sproul Saturday to the New York Rangers to alleviate a logjam of defensemen. Sproul was not likely to ever crack Detroit’s defensive rotation. Talking to Detroit general manager Ken Holland, the scribe writes that the Red Wings made the move to open up playing time in Grand Rapids, where the team hopes to give more minutes to prospects Filip Hronek and Vili Saarijarvi. Hronek, the team’s second-round pick in the 2016 draft, has only played in two games for the Griffins this year, while Saarijarvi, a 2015 third-round pick, had an assist in three games for Toledo of the ECHL, but is expected to get promoted to Grand Rapids shortly.
- The Ottawa Senators announced that they have reassigned defenseman Ben Harpur to Belleville of the AHL. The 22-year-old was called up early in the season to help with the team’s defensive depth only to get injured in his first game with Ottawa. He was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, and now that he is healthy again, will return to his AHL team.
Evening Notes: Stamkos, Jagr, Price, Khudobin
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s preseason is over and Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes about where the Lightning look to be as the new season gets under way. The key positive to the preseason is that both Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan look healthy and ready to go for the regular season.
Stamkos, who had knee surgery in mid-November and missed all but 17 games last year, is healthy and played in four preseason games. Smith referred to Stamkos as looking like he never missed any time, although he is still working on his timing, but looks ready to put up big numbers this year. Callahan has also been healthy, after having surgery on his hip and missing all but 18 games a year ago.
Smith writes that the lines will be totally up in the air as the season begins as the only two players who seem to be definitely together will be Stamkos with Nikita Kucherov, who have been together all preseason. The depth on the team is solid as they still have cuts to make, but top talent like 2017 second-round pick Alexander Volkov are right on the horizon. On defense, the team is expecting Jake Dotchin to have a solid season, despite breaking a team rule that kept him out of all, but one preseason game. He has been paired consistently with Victor Hedman in practice.
- The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford tweets that he believes the St. Louis Blues are still interested in free agent Jaromir Jagr, but it would have to be at less than $2MM, which he doubts would happen. He adds in a later tweet that Jagr would also have to accept a third-line role and second-line power play spot.
- The Athletic’s Paul Campbell (subscription required) breaks down what makes Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price so great, citing his tracking skills, his edgework, puckhandling and his unwillingness to give up on a play. Price, who just signed an eight-year, $84MM extension that kicks in next season, dominated the NHL last season with a 2.23 GAA in 62 games.
- Cam Tucker of NBC Sports writes that Boston Bruins’ backup goaltender Anton Khudobin had an excellent preseason and is forcing the Bruins to make a tough decision at that position. Khudobin, who struggled in limited backup minutes last year, was thought to be in heavy competition with Malcolm Subban as Tuukka Rask‘s backup. Subban, who has also played well in camp, would have to go through waivers if they send him back to the AHL and there is fear a team in need of a backup goaltender might grab the 23-year-old netminder. Khudobin’s solid preseason of allowing just three goals in two games could keep the 31-year-old in Boston another year.
Montreal May Be Heading In Wrong Direction
As a team like the Edmonton Oilers attempt to build their team of the future by locking up their top young forwards, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to long-term deals to be the centerpieces of the franchise, there are other teams who are building in different ways. The Montreal Canadiens locked up star goaltender Carey Price to an eight-year, $84MM deal that starts next year and will keep him locked up until he hits 40-years old. While few dispute the fact that he is one of the top goaltender in the NHL if not the best, there are questions about whether it was smart to invest so much money into a 30-year-old goalie. In fact, if you also factor in the nine years remaining at $7.86MM per year for defenseman Shea Weber, the Canadiens have its core as well.
Starting next year, the Canadiens will be giving those two 30-something players a combined $18.36MM. That’s comparable to the $21MM that McDavid and Draisaitl will make next year. However, Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that investing all your money in a defenseman and a goalie is not the right way to build a winner. He looks at the blueprints for both the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Chicago Blackhawks, two teams who have put together winning formulas and suggests that in neither case was the goaltender the star of the franchise. Neither was the top two players a defenseman and a goalie. Both franchises won based on superstar forwards, one great defenseman and a solid goalie.
Add in the fact that both players are on the wrong side of 30 and are locked up until the 2025-26 season, both could bring down the franchise with all that much money that will be locked into two players who eventually be in their late 30s. The other problem is with that much invested in those two, there will be little money to focus on offense. All great teams always have a number one center and can Montreal pay for one?
Kelly also adds that while he does believe that Price is the best goalie in the world, Price has not been as dominating in the playoffs and certainly has not single-handedly won the team many playoff series. He cites only two Habs’ goaltenders who have worked playoff “magic” in the last 25 years, including Jose Theodore‘s dominance in 2002 against the Boston Bruins and Jaroslav Halak‘s 2010 playoff performance against Washington and Pittsburgh. Price has not done that yet although he has nine years still to accomplish this.
Price was unable to be a difference-maker against the New York Rangers team in the playoffs this past year, Kelly said. And while the team didn’t lose the series because of Price, the team just wasn’t good enough to beat an average Rangers squad. How will the rest of the team improve when there is little to no money to bolster their offense?
Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season
Carolina have been perceived as ‘winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?
Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack‘s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.
Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.
Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.
The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)
This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.
The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.
With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.
The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.
Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season. Take Loui Eriksson for instance:
2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM
While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.
For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros? As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.
It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof. Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.
This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.
Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements. Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus. He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA. The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.
Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation. Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.
Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.
This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price‘s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.
Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.
Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.
Montreal Signs Carey Price To 8-Year Extension
The Montreal Canadiens have announced that they have signed goaltender Carey Price to an eight-year, $84MM extension with a $10.5MM AAV, according to Elliotte Friedman. The deal won’t kick in until the 2018-19 season and will make the 29-year-old goalie the highest paid player in Montreal Canadiens history, according to Sportsnet’s Eric Engles. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that $70MM of the $84MM will come though a signing bonus, which are in place in case there is a lockout, according to Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington. It also means that’s more money for Price down the road if they choose to buy him out, according to NHL Network’s E.J. Hradek.
For Price, his $10.5MM AAV will briefly be tied for the highest in the NHL, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. He is currently tied with Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. However, that will only last until Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid signs his expected $13.25MM extension shortly.
Price will be locked up now until the 2025-2026 season with this deal. Considered by many to be the best goaltender in hockey, the goaltender has a 270-185-55 record. He boasts an goals against career average of 2.40 and has been even better in the past few years, finishing this year with a 2.23 in 62 games with a .923 save percentage. His best season was the 2014-15 year when he won both the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Vezina Trophy after a season in which he finished with a 1.96 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 66 games.
While Price wasn’t set to be a free agent until next year, locking up their franchise goaltender long-term is one less thing to worry about. While the new contract will not come into play for another year, the team will new cap concerns starting a year from now. Montreal currently has $53MM tied up in just 14 players next year.