Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Artemi Panarin’s future which now won’t be with the Rangers, theorizing a possible Nikita Kucherov extension, and much more. We had enough questions from our latest callout for two more columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of those.
12Kelly: I really think the Sabres should re-sign Tuch and continue to build this team around the core of Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, etc. The talent is in place to be able to deal from our young players such as Ostlund, Rosen, and maybe even Power to acquire a solid secondary scorer. Thoughts?
I imagine most Buffalo fans want to see Alex Tuch re-signed to a long-term deal. At a time when the team is trying to make the playoffs and emerge from a rebuild that has had several iterations already, losing a top-line winger is going to make that process much more difficult. Yes, it’s going to cost a lot of money (he’s not going to be on a value contract anymore) and with the long-term extension given to Josh Doan this week, it’s not going to leave a lot for pending RFA Zach Benson, among their others who need new deals. But this is a case of sign him and figure it out later.
While I agree philosophically that your other suggestion of moving youth for win-now help makes sense in the long haul, I’m not sure now is the right time for that. Right now, the Sabres are doing so well that it’d be hard to mess with team chemistry. And given how largely inexperienced they are, I’d want to see how their current core fares with the prospect of meaningful games down the stretch and possibly the playoffs. I’d then use those evaluations to help determine how best to proceed over the summer. By then, they’ll know what’s happening with Tuch and whether they’re needing to replace him. Meanwhile, if they do re-sign him, they may be hard-pressed to afford another top-six piece for next season.
I want to highlight Owen Power specifically for a moment. Yes, he’s overpaid for the role he has right now but Bowen Byram is eligible for unrestricted free agency in less than a year and a half. If you trade Power for a scorer and then Byram goes elsewhere in 2027, now the back end is in trouble. If they can extend Byram, then Power looks like more of a viable trade chip. Needing to wait to do an extension (that can’t happen until this July) should take Power off the table for the time being.
vincent k. mcmahon: What are your thoughts on Steve Ott being named the HC of the Thunderbirds for the rest of the season?
Also, do you think this is a potential tryout for Ott to be the next HC if the Blues move on from Jim Montgomery? (which I don’t foresee happening but it’s not completely off the table).
I’m a little surprised it took this long for Ott to get that spot. I thought he’d have landed it a couple of years ago when Steve Konowalchuk took over behind their bench. By all accounts, Ott has done a very solid job behind the bench in St. Louis since ending his playing career to the point where he has been brought up as a speculative head coaching candidate off and on the last two offseasons. This is the next logical step in his coaching career.
If things go well (it’s always a little tough with more veteran-laden teams where the floor is high but the ceiling often low) and things turn around down the stretch, Ott might get serious head coaching consideration this summer. Realistically, it might take another year or two. By then, we’ll know if the Blues are partway through a rebuild or if they’re still trying to win with a veteran core in which case a rookie head coach might not make the most sense for them.
That said, knowing that the shelf life of an NHL head coach is often only a few years, there’s a possibility that the window lines up for Ott and the Blues. But I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s already behind another NHL bench by the time St. Louis ponders its next coaching change down the road.
LA All Day: I’m curious as to where the Artemi Panarin sweepstakes are at, and if the Kings are considered a frontrunner or possible landing spot here. Does Holland’s aggressive nature end up landing the Kings their much-needed scorer, or will another team end up out-bidding LA once again?
Tucsontoro1: Should the Hawks make a serious run at Panarin?
At this point, it’s too early in the process to call anyone a frontrunner for Panarin. By all accounts, his goal was to re-sign with the Rangers. He just wasn’t willing to take a big discount to do so but I believe his and his agent’s expectation was that eventually, something would get done. While he didn’t say much in the aftermath of the letter that GM Chris Drury released a little more than a week ago, I think the confusion he spoke about was genuine. To go from that to having a shortlist of teams to go to in a week seems a little too quick for me.
I don’t expect Panarin to give the Rangers a big list of teams he’d be willing to go to. And with full trade protection, he controls the show. I could see the list only being two or three teams deep. Whoever those are will be the ultimate frontrunners. It might take until after the Olympics for that list to be presented.
As for the Kings specifically, they need offense and Panarin brings a lot of it so from that standpoint, there’s a fit. I’m not sure he necessarily fits in with the way they play but talent is talent and they need more firepower. Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink it. They’re also a big-market team and that mattered to Panarin in free agency. Having said that, given their inability to get past the first round in recent years and that they continue to spin their wheels, so to speak, I’d be surprised if Los Angeles is on that shortlist. If they are, however, they have the cap space and some younger assets that might appeal to the Rangers so they could make a real push for him. I expect GM Ken Holland would go big on an offer, especially if it comes with a contract extension.
Chicago is an interesting idea. Is he too old to fit in with their young core? Probably. But at the same time, they need a legitimate influx of firepower and for all the cap space and young assets they have, they haven’t been able to get a true top liner. They’ve done alright with some in-between fillers (Tyler Bertuzzi, for example) but Panarin’s at another level. But for the fit to be viable, there would have to be a contract extension as part of the swap. Trading for Panarin as a rental isn’t a great idea for a team whose playoff aspirations aren’t the greatest. But if Panarin is willing to return to the Blackhawks for the longer term, putting him as Connor Bedard’s winger (or anchoring a second line) would certainly help get them to the next phase in their rebuild, one that sees them legitimately battling for a playoff spot.
rayk: The NYR now have only $2.26 mill in cap space. Even at the deadline, how can they find teams Panarin okays (has NMC) that can afford him at his big salary, even with some salary retention? Most of the contenders have little cap space also, and will need the max retained.
For the Rangers, that cap space number is with Panarin on the books in full at $11.643MM. Even if they retain the maximum of 50% of that, they’re still freeing up over $5.8MM (in full-season space) so they’re more than fine in that regard. Now, it does limit them a bit in that they can’t take much more back in offsetting salary than what they’re freeing up but it will be more than workable for them to find a suitable trade for him.
A roughly $5.82MM price tag (with max retention) is a lot for some contenders to afford today. But six weeks from now at the trade deadline, it’s a lot easier. A team with around $2.5MM in space today has over $5MM at the deadline, assuming no other roster moves are made between now and then.
Looking at some playoff teams (or close enough teams) that have around $5MM in room at the deadline (per PuckPedia), I see Colorado, Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Minnesota, Utah, Carolina, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh above that threshold. Several others are already there that aren’t playoff threats at the moment but things could change between now and then. Are all of them going to want Panarin? Or, more specifically, how many of those will he want? I wouldn’t be too worried about the cap element, it will be workable enough for New York to get a good return.
Specialist412: Do you think the Pens will be buyers or sellers? Dubas is real quiet right now, I wonder if he has something big up his sleeve.
Kyle Dubas has never been shy about taking swings but I think deep down, he knows this core is not good enough to be a long-term contender. So I don’t see him being a big buyer, at a minimum. If they’re still in the mix six weeks from now, they have extra picks in the second and third rounds for each of the next three years. Flipping one or two of those for short-term help would make sense and could be justified within the context of not significantly affecting their long-term core or depleting their prospect pool. I doubt they’d do more than that, though.
I think his preference would be to capitalize on a seller’s market if they’re out of the race. The parity plays into the favor of whoever decides to sell given that there will be more buyers than sellers so there should be good returns out there, especially for someone like Rickard Rakell who it feels like has been in trade speculation for years now. But the fact they’re in the race will cause them to push pause for the time being and assess things coming out of the Olympic break.
Jaxteller: Am I the sole defender on Chicago keeping Connor Murphy past the deadline? I get he’s on an expiring contract and know his advanced metrics have declined this year but on a team with next to no experience on the blue line (other than Grzelcyk) I do put a decent value on a) his experience and b) his physicality. Am I wrong?
I’ll start this answer with the question. Are you hoping that the Blackhawks re-sign Murphy beyond this season? If so, then the idea of keeping him around is defensible. Give him a short-term deal with the understanding that his role will be more limited and if he’s content with that and is willing to sign at an amount commensurate with that role, I think you might find some people who would be open to that. I suspect GM Kyle Davidson would be as well. Every rebuilding team needs some good veterans in the room.
But if the plan is to let him go in the summer and try to sign or trade for a more impactful veteran defender, I’m not sure what keeping him through the deadline would solve. Yes, the Blackhawks are within striking distance of a playoff spot at the moment but I’m skeptical they’ll be there come March. And even if so, long-term, wouldn’t it be more valuable to the franchise to have a younger blueliner getting those opportunities in a pressure-packed spot than someone who won’t be around for 2026-27?
I know the underlying numbers aren’t great but we’ve seen teams give up something of value for a veteran third-pairing shot-blocking penalty-killing defenseman before. In a market that’s likely to have limited sellers, I expect Chicago will get a good return for Murphy’s services. Unless they find themselves in a playoff spot come the deadline, I think he’ll be moved.
FeeltheThunder: 1.) Nikita Kucherov is up for a contract extension on July 1st. What do you think that extension will look like overall as I feel money-wise, he’ll either stay at $9.5M AAV or getting raised to $10M AAV. What are your thoughts overall?
2.) There have been rumored rumblings and reports of Tampa looking at potential trade targets such as Blake Coleman (this one getting maybe the most attention), Artemi Panarin, Alex Tuch, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, and such. Many know GM Julian BriseBois is one of the more creative GMs in getting things done and typically goes for guys with term usually, so what do you think Tampa will do and who should Tampa target or if they shouldn’t bother? Btw it doesn’t have to be from the list of names above either who you may think those targets should be.
1) Funny you bring this one up. I started plugging away at Tampa Bay’s Salary Cap Deep Dive earlier this week (there are a couple to post before this one but with the Olympic break coming, I’m trying to get a few of these ready) and I’m up to the point of pondering Kucherov’s next deal.
It’s fair to say that Kucherov took a team-friendly deal last time, a million or two below market value at that time. I could see him staying with that. The problem is that market value for him in 2027 (with a $113.5MM projected cap) might be $15MM or more. A million or two below that is still well above what he’s making now. He’ll be entering his age-34 season on his next contract. Ideally, you’d probably not want to go more than four years but if they do what they did to keep Yanni Gourde and extend it a couple more seasons, maybe it can get to the range where he is now.
Assuming he’ll leave a bit on the table market-value-wise, I could see Tampa going to him with something like this. For the next three seasons, use a $12.5MM cap hit, then for age-38, it goes to $10MM, then two seasons at $7.5MM. Of course, deals can’t be structured quite like that anymore but the total of the deal would be $62.5MM over six years, or a $10.42MM AAV. Maybe they can convince him to take a little less than that but that’s about the best-case scenario.
2) There’s a reason Coleman has been mentioned so much. He is the perfect fit. It’s a repeat of last year in that he’s a non-rental like Oliver Bjorkstrand. He knows the market. He’s the type of player they’ve been looking for, going back a couple of years. The price is going to be high but that feels like a Lightning type of move. To go off the board, I’d watch them if Vancouver decides to move someone with term. Conor Garland and Jake DeBrusk aren’t Coleman-type players but they’re top-six pieces with several years left and a salary that should fit on their books, especially if Bjorkstrand isn’t brought back.
Gmm8811: Can you explain one more time how it’s supposed to work when a player gets sent down? I thought under the new CBA, players were required to play at least two games before getting recalled.
Players only have to play in one game before they’re recall-eligible once again. For teams with an AHL affiliate close to their NHL one, they can simply send a player down when both teams are at home, have them play that night with the minor league team, then recall them the next day. Basically, similar to last season but instead of it being a paper transaction, the player actually has to report and play. It certainly has reduced the number of minor moves but there’s still a lot of shuffling from some teams that are fortunate enough to have an affiliate close enough to pull this off.
aka.nda: What do you think the chances are that Russia and Belarus are re-admitted to international play in light of their appeal?
I expect it’s going to happen at some point. The guise of safety concerns worked as a semi-plausible explanation in light of what was going on in the world when this started but the world is a lot different now than it was then. I’m not sure they get full reinstatement on the first appeal attempt but maybe there’s a gradual process that allows them to test the waters at lower levels to see what the backlash winds up being. Then, from there, if things go well, then there’s a better case to make for reinstatement for the more prominent tournaments.
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images.