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Penguins Unlikely To Make Cap-Clearing Trade

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The Pittsburgh Penguins are currently over the salary cap limit, per CapFriendly, with $81.66MM committed to 23 players. That does not include restricted free agent defenseman Marcus Pettersson, who reportedly has been waiting for the Penguins to clear the necessary space to sign him to a long-term contract. GM Jim Rutherford even stated that he hoped to sign the 23-year-old blue liner to a long extension and would likely need to move out another roster player to do so. So, a trade is coming to Pittsburgh before the start of the season, right? Probably not, as it turns out. The Athletic’s Josh Yohe recently caught up with Rutherford who has changed his tune on making a deal. “It might turn out that we won’t be able to give Marcus the contract that we want to be able to give right now,” Rutherford said, “But if that’s the case, we’ll make everything work with the cap. And we can do that without trading anyone.”

Yohe speculates that the Penguins could fit Pettersson under the cap on a cheap one-year deal, even though that is not the preference of either side. By demoting one of the defensemen Pettersson would be replacing on the roster, Zach Trotman or Juuso Riikola, the salaries offset somewhat. Trotman in particular appears to be more of a placeholder on the roster if Pettersson is not signed by the beginning of the regular season, as the veteran did not see any NHL action last year. Yohe also adds that keeping Tristan Jarry at $675K as the backup goalie over Casey DeSmith at $1.25MM would also add much needed space, although would be a risky endeavor. DeSmith would be an attractive claim candidate for a number of teams as an affordable backup with term on his contract. The team could choose instead to trade DeSmith, but Rutherford clearly doesn’t see that as a possibility in the current market.

Making a trade remains the simplest way for Pittsburgh to clear space for Pettersson, but Rutherford’s hands appear to be tied. “You can’t make a trade when you can’t find anyone to trade with” he stated to Yohe. The Penguins have been a fixture on the trade market over the last few years and may be running out of willing partners. Last year alone, Rutherford made nine trades during the regular season, only to keep going this off-season with trades shipping out Phil Kessel and Olli Maatta. It could also be the competitors aren’t buying what Rutherford is selling. Defenseman Jack Johnson remains the player that the team would most like to move, but he has little to no market value at his inflated salary. The team also has reportedly tried to flip former Florida Panthers forward Nick Bjugstad, whose value has declined somewhat. As for their more homegrown products, defenseman Justin Schultz and winger Bryan Rust have come up in trade rumors, but have been associated with high asking prices as well.

By saying that no one will make a trade, Rutherford likely just means that no team is currently willing to bite on the players he is open to moving at the price he is willing to take. If that continues, and Pettersson is willing to take a one-year deal with the hopes of driving the price up on an extension next summer, then Rutherford and the Penguins would be better served not to make a desperation trade and instead try to squeeze the young defender onto the roster. It may be difficult season for Pittsburgh when it comes to roster flexibility, but it may be their best solution to the current issue.

Oilers Seeking Pick And Prospect For Jesse Puljujarvi

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The Edmonton Oilers quickly changed their tune today after forward Jesse Puljujarvi signed a one-year deal with his hometown team in Finland’s Liiga. The Oilers had been adamant that they were content to hold on to Puljujarvi, citing disappointing trade offers and a confidence that he could still be an effective member of the team. That changed after it became clear that he had no intention to play for Edmonton this season or possibly ever again. New GM Ken Holland was quick to clarify that Puljujarvi’s contract in Finland did not impact his trade value and that he could suit up in the NHL immediately if traded. Holland also took the opportunity to state that several new teams have made inquiries about Puljujarvi’s availability of late.

Interestingly, with the Oilers now seemingly focused on trading Puljujarvi, the asking price has arguably increased, despite underwhelming offers to this point. Previously reported as being an established third-line forward, TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reports that Edmonton is now seeking a prospect with top-nine upside as well as a draft pick as their preferred return for Puljujarvi. He adds that an established player may still be a suitable return, but he would have to have term remaining on his contract beyond this coming season.

If the Oilers had struggled to this point to get a fair offer in their eyes for a player they weren’t shopping, it does seem odd that they feel they can increase the asking price when their priority seems to have shifted to moving Puljujarvi. Of course, some may feel that the asking price is of the same quality of lower, considering “third-line forwards” such as Pittsburgh’s Bryan Rust and Boston’s Charlie Coyle have been among rumored targets of the Oilers, either of whom could draw a first-round pick and top-nine prospect from a contender in need. Either way, Rishaug’s report of a changing asking price at least confirms that the mindset has changed in Edmonton and the team is more focused than ever on parting ways with Puljujarvi, even if they continue to maintain that they will only do so on their terms.

Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Evan Rodrigues

Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating

Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
  • Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season

Potential Comparable Players:

Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM

  • Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI

Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
  • Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age

Potential Comparable Players:

Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
  • Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium

J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics:  156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.

Penguins Notes: Cap Crunch, Murray, Jarry, Trade Candidates

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Although the Penguins have minimal cap space and two players still in need of new contracts in defenseman Marcus Pettersson and center Zach Aston-Reese, GM Jim Rutherford told DKPittsburghSports’ Dave Molinari that he doesn’t foresee needing to make a small cap-saving move to get in compliance with the $81.5MM Upper Limit for next season.  Instead, he indicated that their plan is to carry less than the maximum 23 skaters, a strategy that would certainly carry some risk if short-term injuries were to arise.  That plan also suggests that their intention is to sign each RFA to a one-year contract as anything longer would certainly carry a larger cap hit.  Per CapFriendly, Pittsburgh has just over $840K in cap space with a 22-man roster but some of those players on their current roster could be in the minors to start next season.

More from Pittsburgh:

  • In that same interview with Molinari, Rutherford indicated that there have been no discussions yet regarding a potential contract extension for goalie Matt Murray. He’s entering the final year of his contract with a $3.75MM AAV and as an RFA with arbitration rights next summer, it’s going to cost considerably more to keep him around.  The GM also believes that they won’t need to trade fellow netminder Tristan Jarry.  While he’s no longer waiver exempt, Rutherford feels that with most (if not all) of the backup slots around the league now filled, there’s much less of a risk to exposing him to the waiver wire.
  • If the Penguins do indeed decide to make a move to free up cap space to give themselves some additional flexibility, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests that winger Bryan Rust, center Nick Bjugstad, and defenseman Jack Johnson are the likeliest trade candidates. Rust was inconsistent last season and with a $3.5MM AAV, they could look to save there.  Bjugstad failed to come close to his 2017-18 output so his $4.1MM price tag is a bit on the high side though they’d likely prefer to see what he can do after a full training camp under his belt.  Johnson’s cost is the cheapest at $3.25MM per season but with four years remaining, Vensel acknowledged that Pittsburgh would need to provide an incentive to be able to move his contract.

Pacific Notes: Myers, Kings Qualifying Offers, Puljujarvi, Thompson

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With reports that the Vancouver Canucks intend to focus their sites on adding a top-level defenseman in free agency, its looks like general manager Jim Benning has made it clear who is at the top of his wishlist as Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that Vancouver expects to meet with unrestricted free agent Tyler Myers today, the first day teams can speak to unrestricted free agents.

Myers, who has played with the Winnipeg Jets for the past five years, is one of the top three unrestricted free agent defensemen along with Toronto’s Jake Gardiner and Montreal’s Jordie Benn. The 29-year-old could add some offense as he tallied nine goals and 31 points last season in Winnipeg. The 6-foot-8, 229-pound blueliner would give the team a solid top-four defenseman for the Canucks, who have lacked a solid top-four for years. Myers, along with a full season of 2018 first-rounder Quinn Hughes, could help bolster the team’s defense for a long time if the Canucks can convince him to sign with them.

  • The Los Angeles Times’ Curtis Zupke reports that the Los Angeles Kings will tender qualifying offers to Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Michael Amadio, Daniel Brickley, Calvin Petersen, Sheldon Rempal and Matt Roy. No surprises there. He adds the team also does not intend to make qualifying offers to Nikita Scherbak, Alex Lintuniemi, Matteson Iacopelli and Pavel Jenys. Scherbak, who was claimed off waivers from Montreal, struggled after coming over to the Kings, while Lintuniemi has been passed by a number of Kings defenseman on their depth chart after the former second-round pick finished the season in Ontario in the AHL with a minus-30 rating.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins reports that the Edmonton Oilers haven’t had much success so far in trying to trade winger Jesse Puljujarvi, who has asked for a trade, and had been shopped at the NHL Entry Draft Friday and Saturday. Edmonton has already made it clear they do not intend to trade him away for nothing and supposedly are asking for quite a bit. Leavins writes that they did talk to Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford, but he balked at the asking price, which was winger Bryan Rust. Puljujarvi, a restricted free agent, has made it clear if he isn’t traded, he will play in Europe.
  • Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs are considering Chicago Wolves head coach Rocky Thompson to join Mike Babcock’s staff this upcoming season. Thompson, who led Chicago to the Calder Cup Finals in the AHL this season, has been considered a candidate to move to the NHL. Toronto has lost two assistant coaches this offseason. D.J. Smith was hired as the Ottawa Senators head coach, while Jim Hiller left the team to join Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz with the New York Islanders. No word on whether the Vegas Golden Knights will release him from his contract.

Metropolitan Notes: Vrana, Penguins, Islanders, Boqvist

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While the Capitals have had preliminary discussions regarding a contract extension for winger Jakub Vrana, there isn’t any rush to get a deal done, notes Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post.  The pending RFA is in the midst of a career season with 21 goals and 22 assists through 71 games, numbers that have him in line for a big raise on his current $863K cap hit on his entry-level contract.  GM Brian MacLellan has indicated in the past that he’s open to signing Vrana to a long-term extension but with a little over $70MM committed to just 14 players for next season, they may have to go with a shorter-term bridge deal to preserve some salary cap flexibility.

More from the Metropolitan Division:

  • The Penguins got some good news and bad news on the injury front. Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that winger Bryan Rust participated in full practice for the first time since suffering a lower-body injury late last month and that he has been upgraded to day-to-day.  Rust was supposed to be out longer-term than this so his expected availability over the next few days is certainly a positive though he isn’t playing today.  However, head coach Mike Sullivan stated that winger Zach Aston-Reese, who was listed as day-to-day, is now out for the longer term and that he is merely hopeful that the 24-year-old will be able to return this season.
  • The Islanders are set to get some help from the infirmary this weekend. Newsday’s Laura Albanese reports that goalie Robin Lehner is expected to play on Sunday while Johnny Boychuk is also likely to suit up then after missing the past week while being in concussion protocol.
  • While there was some talk that Devils prospect Jesper Boqvist could make the jump to North America with his SHL season now complete, Corey Masisak of The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that the forward will remain in Sweden in the hopes of landing a spot on their entry into the upcoming World Championships. Boqvist was New Jersey’s second-round pick (36th overall) back in 2017 and finished tied for 14th in SHL scoring with 35 points (13-22-35) in 51 games.

Bryan Rust, Chad Ruhwedel Out “Longer Term”

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have suffered several injuries of late, and two more names can be added to that list. Bryan Rust and Chad Ruhwedel are both out “longer term” according to head coach Mike Sullivan. Tom Gulitti of NHL.com reports that Ruhwedel left the arena last night with his right arm in a sling, while Rust was on crutches with his left foot in a walking boot.

Pittsburgh went out and added Erik Gudbranson and Chris Wideman at the trade deadline this week to address other injuries on the blue line, but will feel the loss of Rust up front. The hard working forward had been playing an increased role of late and actually ranks third on the team in even-strength goals with 15. He has added two short-handed tallies for a career high of 17 on the year and is an integral part of the Penguins attack. While they obviously still have plenty of firepower with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Phil Kessel leading the way, Rust provided a level of versatility that is lacking elsewhere on the roster.

Losing two more players will hurt the team and it is no guarantee that the Penguins even make the playoffs at this point. With a quarter of the season remaining the team sits in the final wild card spot but just a single point ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets who recently loaded up at the deadline. Philadelphia, Buffalo and Florida are all within ten points and chasing down the Penguins, who themselves are trying to leapfrog the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens in the standings. It will be a fight right to the end in the Eastern Conference, and the Pittsburgh depth will surely be tested now.

Injury Notes: Bruins, Capitals, Penguins, Pageau

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The Boston Bruins should get a boost just in time for the Winter Classic on Tuesday against the Chicago Blackhawks as NHL.com’s Dan Rosen reports that Brad Marchand should be ready to go after practicing today, barring any setbacks. He missed Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, but it looks like it wasn’t a serious issue. Marchand is having another solid campaign as he has 12 goals and 41 points in 39 games this year.

Rosen also points out that defenseman Charlie McAvoy remains questionable for the big game. The defenseman has missed two games with a lower-body injury and did not practice today. The gifted defenseman has struggled dealing with injuries as he has appeared in just 17 games this year, although he has 11 points.

  • Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post writes that Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Niskanen will be out Monday against Nashville and miss his second straight game with an undisclosed upper-body injury. However, the team got better news on Brooks Orpik, who listed as a game-time decision for Monday after missing 27 games with a right-knee injury. The scribe writes that both players practiced Sunday and are both close to returning to the team. The team has also been without Christian Djoos.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins could be without both forward Bryan Rust and defenseman Olli Maatta on Monday as both are listed as day-to-day, according to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Matt Vensel. Rust didn’t practice today with an undisclosed injury, while Maatta suffered a lower-body injury during Saturday’s game against St. Louis, but finished the game. He didn’t practice today either.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that Ottawa Senators center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is close to a return. While he’s not expected to play Monday, could be back not long after that. The 26-year-old has been out all season after having surgery to repair a torn Achilles muscle. He had a six-month timetable in mid-September and is well ahead of schedule. Pageau had 14 goals and 29 points last season.

Bryan Rust Re-Signs With Pittsburgh Penguins

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have locked up one of their most versatile forwards, re-signing Bryan Rust to a four-year contract. The deal carries an average annual value of $3.5MM, and will carry Rust to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2022. Rust was scheduled to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, but will now be locked into a contract with Pittsburgh until just after his 30th birthday.

Rust, 26, has moved up and down the Penguins lineup for the last few years, often riding shotgun with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. With that, he set a career-high with 38 points this season and saw the ice in every situation. A reliable defensive winger who can play both sides, he’s a useful piece for the Penguins to move around when needed. That said, this deal now brings with it some extra responsibility and expectations.

The Penguins are paying for UFA years in this contract, as Rust had just one year of restricted free agent status left and could have easily taken the team to arbitration for a hefty raise on the $640K cap hit he’s carried the last two seasons. The team is betting that he would have attracted several suitors, and offered him enough to make it worthwhile for him to sign away some of his free agent seasons. They should have a good indication of who would be interested, since they recently made Rust available in trade in at least negotiations over Max Domi. Whether GM Jim Rutherford would be open to trading Rust for other players isn’t clear, but with a cap crunch and improvements needed it would come as no surprise.

Rust’s deal leaves the Penguins with just over $5MM in projected cap space, but still some decisions to be made about roster players. Jamie Oleksiak was given a qualifying offer and is an RFA, but Riley Sheahan and Tom Kuhnhackl are both unrestricted free agents after going unqualified yesterday. The team could retain any number of them, but will have to be careful how much cap space is allocated to each. There is of course the chance that Phil Kessel and his $6.8MM cap hit is dealt in the coming weeks, but otherwise the Penguins look to be cash-strapped as free agency approaches. Rust’s deal does give them some level of cost certainty, but also complicates the cap situation for this summer.

Pittsburgh Made Rust, Sheary, Simon Available In Max Domi Negotiations

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Josh Yohe of The Athletic has some of the best sources inside the Pittsburgh Penguins, and in a piece (subscription required) detailing the potential availability of Phil Kessel this summer—something Yohe confirms is possible, though takes the Arizona Coyotes out of the running for financial reasons—he reports some of the players made available in GM Jim Rutherford’s recent pursuit of Max Domi. The Penguins were willing to talk about Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary and Dominik Simon, though what the exact offer for Domi was is unclear. The Coyotes would eventually trade Domi to the Montreal Canadiens instead for Alex Galchenyuk.

Rutherford is known as an executive willing to trade, and there has been no denying that he’d like to improve his club. As soon as Domi was rumored to be available many reports linked him to the Penguins, but it was never clear what kind of value the team would put on him. Now it’s clear, as all three of the mentioned players are important pieces to the Pittsburgh attack.

Rust may be the most interesting name, after a 38-point season that saw him become one of the most versatile and effective forwards on the roster.  Contributing on the powerplay and penalty kill while putting up some of the team’s best possession numbers, Rust is a perfect fit for a club that wants to spread offense across three lines. He can play both wings and has bounced between several groups over the last two seasons. He also is 26 and a restricted free agent however, meaning he’s due for a raise and is closing in on UFA status. After earning an average of $640K in each of the last two seasons, he’ll cost the Penguins a lot more this time around. Any multi-year deal is buying out unrestricted free agent years, and should send his cap hit skyrocketing despite his pedestrian goal totals.

Sheary on the other hand is already signed for two more seasons at a $3MM cap hit, but could be replaceable for the team if they can find offense somewhere else. The 25-year old saw his ice time drop to under 14 minutes a night this season and without anything to offer on the penalty kill his role is limited to an offensive presence. That point production dropped significantly from the 2016-17 season, and while Sheary still scored 18 goals this year he recorded just 30 points.

Simon lands somewhere else on the value chart, as he’s both a restricted free agent this summer and hasn’t yet shown he can handle the NHL on a full-time basis. The 23-year old was good this year in his 33-game stint, scoring 12 points and recording solid possession numbers, but with just 38 NHL games under his belt since being drafted in 2015 it’s not clear yet what he can really become.

When presented with the choice of these players or Galchenyuk, it makes sense that Arizona would take Montreal’s offer. We don’t know though how the negotiations took place exactly, and instead can only take from this report that the Penguins would be willing to move each of the three for the right return. While that’s not very surprising given their GM’s propensity for trade, it gives us an idea of what to expect from Pittsburgh in the coming weeks.

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