Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues
Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.
Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:
The Case of Evan Rodrigues
Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating
Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)
Player Side
Themes:
- Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
- Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season
Potential Comparable Players:
Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM
- Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI
Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM
- Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
- Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player
Team Side
Themes:
- Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
- Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age
Potential Comparable Players:
Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
- Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics: 156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM
- Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
- Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers
Prediction
This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.
Penguins Notes: Cap Crunch, Murray, Jarry, Trade Candidates
Although the Penguins have minimal cap space and two players still in need of new contracts in defenseman Marcus Pettersson and center Zach Aston-Reese, GM Jim Rutherford told DKPittsburghSports’ Dave Molinari that he doesn’t foresee needing to make a small cap-saving move to get in compliance with the $81.5MM Upper Limit for next season. Instead, he indicated that their plan is to carry less than the maximum 23 skaters, a strategy that would certainly carry some risk if short-term injuries were to arise. That plan also suggests that their intention is to sign each RFA to a one-year contract as anything longer would certainly carry a larger cap hit. Per CapFriendly, Pittsburgh has just over $840K in cap space with a 22-man roster but some of those players on their current roster could be in the minors to start next season.
More from Pittsburgh:
- In that same interview with Molinari, Rutherford indicated that there have been no discussions yet regarding a potential contract extension for goalie Matt Murray. He’s entering the final year of his contract with a $3.75MM AAV and as an RFA with arbitration rights next summer, it’s going to cost considerably more to keep him around. The GM also believes that they won’t need to trade fellow netminder Tristan Jarry. While he’s no longer waiver exempt, Rutherford feels that with most (if not all) of the backup slots around the league now filled, there’s much less of a risk to exposing him to the waiver wire.
- If the Penguins do indeed decide to make a move to free up cap space to give themselves some additional flexibility, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests that winger Bryan Rust, center Nick Bjugstad, and defenseman Jack Johnson are the likeliest trade candidates. Rust was inconsistent last season and with a $3.5MM AAV, they could look to save there. Bjugstad failed to come close to his 2017-18 output so his $4.1MM price tag is a bit on the high side though they’d likely prefer to see what he can do after a full training camp under his belt. Johnson’s cost is the cheapest at $3.25MM per season but with four years remaining, Vensel acknowledged that Pittsburgh would need to provide an incentive to be able to move his contract.
Pacific Notes: Myers, Kings Qualifying Offers, Puljujarvi, Thompson
With reports that the Vancouver Canucks intend to focus their sites on adding a top-level defenseman in free agency, its looks like general manager Jim Benning has made it clear who is at the top of his wishlist as Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that Vancouver expects to meet with unrestricted free agent Tyler Myers today, the first day teams can speak to unrestricted free agents.
Myers, who has played with the Winnipeg Jets for the past five years, is one of the top three unrestricted free agent defensemen along with Toronto’s Jake Gardiner and Montreal’s Jordie Benn. The 29-year-old could add some offense as he tallied nine goals and 31 points last season in Winnipeg. The 6-foot-8, 229-pound blueliner would give the team a solid top-four defenseman for the Canucks, who have lacked a solid top-four for years. Myers, along with a full season of 2018 first-rounder Quinn Hughes, could help bolster the team’s defense for a long time if the Canucks can convince him to sign with them.
- The Los Angeles Times’ Curtis Zupke reports that the Los Angeles Kings will tender qualifying offers to Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Michael Amadio, Daniel Brickley, Calvin Petersen, Sheldon Rempal and Matt Roy. No surprises there. He adds the team also does not intend to make qualifying offers to Nikita Scherbak, Alex Lintuniemi, Matteson Iacopelli and Pavel Jenys. Scherbak, who was claimed off waivers from Montreal, struggled after coming over to the Kings, while Lintuniemi has been passed by a number of Kings defenseman on their depth chart after the former second-round pick finished the season in Ontario in the AHL with a minus-30 rating.
- The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins reports that the Edmonton Oilers haven’t had much success so far in trying to trade winger Jesse Puljujarvi, who has asked for a trade, and had been shopped at the NHL Entry Draft Friday and Saturday. Edmonton has already made it clear they do not intend to trade him away for nothing and supposedly are asking for quite a bit. Leavins writes that they did talk to Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford, but he balked at the asking price, which was winger Bryan Rust. Puljujarvi, a restricted free agent, has made it clear if he isn’t traded, he will play in Europe.
- Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs are considering Chicago Wolves head coach Rocky Thompson to join Mike Babcock‘s staff this upcoming season. Thompson, who led Chicago to the Calder Cup Finals in the AHL this season, has been considered a candidate to move to the NHL. Toronto has lost two assistant coaches this offseason. D.J. Smith was hired as the Ottawa Senators head coach, while Jim Hiller left the team to join Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz with the New York Islanders. No word on whether the Vegas Golden Knights will release him from his contract.
Metropolitan Notes: Vrana, Penguins, Islanders, Boqvist
While the Capitals have had preliminary discussions regarding a contract extension for winger Jakub Vrana, there isn’t any rush to get a deal done, notes Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post. The pending RFA is in the midst of a career season with 21 goals and 22 assists through 71 games, numbers that have him in line for a big raise on his current $863K cap hit on his entry-level contract. GM Brian MacLellan has indicated in the past that he’s open to signing Vrana to a long-term extension but with a little over $70MM committed to just 14 players for next season, they may have to go with a shorter-term bridge deal to preserve some salary cap flexibility.
More from the Metropolitan Division:
- The Penguins got some good news and bad news on the injury front. Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that winger Bryan Rust participated in full practice for the first time since suffering a lower-body injury late last month and that he has been upgraded to day-to-day. Rust was supposed to be out longer-term than this so his expected availability over the next few days is certainly a positive though he isn’t playing today. However, head coach Mike Sullivan stated that winger Zach Aston-Reese, who was listed as day-to-day, is now out for the longer term and that he is merely hopeful that the 24-year-old will be able to return this season.
- The Islanders are set to get some help from the infirmary this weekend. Newsday’s Laura Albanese reports that goalie Robin Lehner is expected to play on Sunday while Johnny Boychuk is also likely to suit up then after missing the past week while being in concussion protocol.
- While there was some talk that Devils prospect Jesper Boqvist could make the jump to North America with his SHL season now complete, Corey Masisak of The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that the forward will remain in Sweden in the hopes of landing a spot on their entry into the upcoming World Championships. Boqvist was New Jersey’s second-round pick (36th overall) back in 2017 and finished tied for 14th in SHL scoring with 35 points (13-22-35) in 51 games.
Bryan Rust, Chad Ruhwedel Out “Longer Term”
The Pittsburgh Penguins have suffered several injuries of late, and two more names can be added to that list. Bryan Rust and Chad Ruhwedel are both out “longer term” according to head coach Mike Sullivan. Tom Gulitti of NHL.com reports that Ruhwedel left the arena last night with his right arm in a sling, while Rust was on crutches with his left foot in a walking boot.
Pittsburgh went out and added Erik Gudbranson and Chris Wideman at the trade deadline this week to address other injuries on the blue line, but will feel the loss of Rust up front. The hard working forward had been playing an increased role of late and actually ranks third on the team in even-strength goals with 15. He has added two short-handed tallies for a career high of 17 on the year and is an integral part of the Penguins attack. While they obviously still have plenty of firepower with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Phil Kessel leading the way, Rust provided a level of versatility that is lacking elsewhere on the roster.
Losing two more players will hurt the team and it is no guarantee that the Penguins even make the playoffs at this point. With a quarter of the season remaining the team sits in the final wild card spot but just a single point ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets who recently loaded up at the deadline. Philadelphia, Buffalo and Florida are all within ten points and chasing down the Penguins, who themselves are trying to leapfrog the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens in the standings. It will be a fight right to the end in the Eastern Conference, and the Pittsburgh depth will surely be tested now.
Injury Notes: Bruins, Capitals, Penguins, Pageau
The Boston Bruins should get a boost just in time for the Winter Classic on Tuesday against the Chicago Blackhawks as NHL.com’s Dan Rosen reports that Brad Marchand should be ready to go after practicing today, barring any setbacks. He missed Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, but it looks like it wasn’t a serious issue. Marchand is having another solid campaign as he has 12 goals and 41 points in 39 games this year.
Rosen also points out that defenseman Charlie McAvoy remains questionable for the big game. The defenseman has missed two games with a lower-body injury and did not practice today. The gifted defenseman has struggled dealing with injuries as he has appeared in just 17 games this year, although he has 11 points.
- Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post writes that Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Niskanen will be out Monday against Nashville and miss his second straight game with an undisclosed upper-body injury. However, the team got better news on Brooks Orpik, who listed as a game-time decision for Monday after missing 27 games with a right-knee injury. The scribe writes that both players practiced Sunday and are both close to returning to the team. The team has also been without Christian Djoos.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins could be without both forward Bryan Rust and defenseman Olli Maatta on Monday as both are listed as day-to-day, according to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Matt Vensel. Rust didn’t practice today with an undisclosed injury, while Maatta suffered a lower-body injury during Saturday’s game against St. Louis, but finished the game. He didn’t practice today either.
- Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that Ottawa Senators center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is close to a return. While he’s not expected to play Monday, could be back not long after that. The 26-year-old has been out all season after having surgery to repair a torn Achilles muscle. He had a six-month timetable in mid-September and is well ahead of schedule. Pageau had 14 goals and 29 points last season.
Bryan Rust Re-Signs With Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins have locked up one of their most versatile forwards, re-signing Bryan Rust to a four-year contract. The deal carries an average annual value of $3.5MM, and will carry Rust to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2022. Rust was scheduled to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, but will now be locked into a contract with Pittsburgh until just after his 30th birthday.
Rust, 26, has moved up and down the Penguins lineup for the last few years, often riding shotgun with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. With that, he set a career-high with 38 points this season and saw the ice in every situation. A reliable defensive winger who can play both sides, he’s a useful piece for the Penguins to move around when needed. That said, this deal now brings with it some extra responsibility and expectations.
The Penguins are paying for UFA years in this contract, as Rust had just one year of restricted free agent status left and could have easily taken the team to arbitration for a hefty raise on the $640K cap hit he’s carried the last two seasons. The team is betting that he would have attracted several suitors, and offered him enough to make it worthwhile for him to sign away some of his free agent seasons. They should have a good indication of who would be interested, since they recently made Rust available in trade in at least negotiations over Max Domi. Whether GM Jim Rutherford would be open to trading Rust for other players isn’t clear, but with a cap crunch and improvements needed it would come as no surprise.
Rust’s deal leaves the Penguins with just over $5MM in projected cap space, but still some decisions to be made about roster players. Jamie Oleksiak was given a qualifying offer and is an RFA, but Riley Sheahan and Tom Kuhnhackl are both unrestricted free agents after going unqualified yesterday. The team could retain any number of them, but will have to be careful how much cap space is allocated to each. There is of course the chance that Phil Kessel and his $6.8MM cap hit is dealt in the coming weeks, but otherwise the Penguins look to be cash-strapped as free agency approaches. Rust’s deal does give them some level of cost certainty, but also complicates the cap situation for this summer.
Pittsburgh Made Rust, Sheary, Simon Available In Max Domi Negotiations
Josh Yohe of The Athletic has some of the best sources inside the Pittsburgh Penguins, and in a piece (subscription required) detailing the potential availability of Phil Kessel this summer—something Yohe confirms is possible, though takes the Arizona Coyotes out of the running for financial reasons—he reports some of the players made available in GM Jim Rutherford‘s recent pursuit of Max Domi. The Penguins were willing to talk about Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary and Dominik Simon, though what the exact offer for Domi was is unclear. The Coyotes would eventually trade Domi to the Montreal Canadiens instead for Alex Galchenyuk.
Rutherford is known as an executive willing to trade, and there has been no denying that he’d like to improve his club. As soon as Domi was rumored to be available many reports linked him to the Penguins, but it was never clear what kind of value the team would put on him. Now it’s clear, as all three of the mentioned players are important pieces to the Pittsburgh attack.
Rust may be the most interesting name, after a 38-point season that saw him become one of the most versatile and effective forwards on the roster. Contributing on the powerplay and penalty kill while putting up some of the team’s best possession numbers, Rust is a perfect fit for a club that wants to spread offense across three lines. He can play both wings and has bounced between several groups over the last two seasons. He also is 26 and a restricted free agent however, meaning he’s due for a raise and is closing in on UFA status. After earning an average of $640K in each of the last two seasons, he’ll cost the Penguins a lot more this time around. Any multi-year deal is buying out unrestricted free agent years, and should send his cap hit skyrocketing despite his pedestrian goal totals.
Sheary on the other hand is already signed for two more seasons at a $3MM cap hit, but could be replaceable for the team if they can find offense somewhere else. The 25-year old saw his ice time drop to under 14 minutes a night this season and without anything to offer on the penalty kill his role is limited to an offensive presence. That point production dropped significantly from the 2016-17 season, and while Sheary still scored 18 goals this year he recorded just 30 points.
Simon lands somewhere else on the value chart, as he’s both a restricted free agent this summer and hasn’t yet shown he can handle the NHL on a full-time basis. The 23-year old was good this year in his 33-game stint, scoring 12 points and recording solid possession numbers, but with just 38 NHL games under his belt since being drafted in 2015 it’s not clear yet what he can really become.
When presented with the choice of these players or Galchenyuk, it makes sense that Arizona would take Montreal’s offer. We don’t know though how the negotiations took place exactly, and instead can only take from this report that the Penguins would be willing to move each of the three for the right return. While that’s not very surprising given their GM’s propensity for trade, it gives us an idea of what to expect from Pittsburgh in the coming weeks.
Rutherford Eyeing Trade Market To Improve Penguins
Changes are coming in Pittsburgh this off-season, but GM Jim Rutherford is “not even really thinking about free agency right now”. Speaking with Josh Yohe of the Athletic, Rutherford admits that “we won’t really have the cap space to do anything anyway. We’re going to re-sign some of our restricted free agents. And at that point, we’re around the cap.” The Penguins need to re-sign RFA’s Bryan Rust, Riley Sheahan, Daniel Sprong, Jamie Oleksiak and more and even with the expected increase to the salary cap limit will only have $8-12MM maximum to work with. The team could make a couple additional minor moves here and there on the unrestricted free agent market, but Rutherford is correct that team is strapped for the cap space to make any significant signings this summer, at least as things stand now.
As a result, it is the trade market that Rutherford is more interested in. The team has already stated that they don’t plan to buy out any of their current players, but they could look to move them via trade. Atop that list are likely wingers Carl Hagelin and Conor Sheary and defenseman Matt Hunwick. In fact, the blue line appears to be the most likely area for a player to be traded away, as the team enters next season with six veterans under contract and Oleksiak and Frank Corrado as restricted free agents. Rutherford stated to Yohe that defenseman Brian Dumoulin is the most untouchable player on the back end due to his invaluable defensive play, and also expressed his fondness for Oleksiak and Olli Maatta as well. Rutherford said that the front office is optimistic that Kris Letang and Hunwick will perform better next year and were happy with the play of Justin Schultz and Chad Ruhwedel as they made up for Letang’s and Hunwick’s shortcomings respectively this season. However, Rutherford added that his comfort with this group doesn’t mean that won’t make a change.
The goal in making any deal is to improve the depth and youth of the Penguins’ forward corps. This explains why the team was connected to Max Domi recently, before he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens last week. The team is seeking versatility and upside up front and are willing to move substantial assets to get it, but Rutherford wasn’t willing to part with the Alex Galchenyuk-level ask from the Arizona Coyotes for Domi. Rutherford knows that even if he does nothing this summer, Pittsburgh will still be a contender, and as such he does not need to overpay in any trade. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not going anywhere and Rutherford has already confirmed that he is not shopping Phil Kessel. It’s safe to assume that young winger Jake Guentzel and new acquisition Derick Brassard are also safe. That is already shaping up to be a solid group yet again and the internal addition of younger players should add energy and potential. However, Rutherford’s preference still is to add depth and even more youth if he can to combat the injuries and fatigue that hurt his aging roster last year. Those are the moves he is looking to make this summer and it seems inevitable that at least one such transaction will be made by the expert executive. They may not be three-peat champions, but the Penguins are going to re-stock and be dangerous again in 2018-19.
Snapshots: O’Connell, Meyer, Vermette, Rust
A pair of NHL draft picks have committed to Ohio State for the 2018-19 season. The Buckeyes announced (Twitter links) that defenseman Ryan O’Connell and winger Carson Meyer will be joining them next year. O’Connell, a seventh-rounder of Toronto last June, had previously committed to join Boston University next year and spent this past season with Penticton of the BCHL. Meyer’s case is more intriguing. The Columbus prospect (selected in the sixth round last year) has spent the past two years at Miami-Ohio. After a strong rookie campaign where he posted 26 points in 34 games, his output dipped to just ten points in 34 contests as he dealt with season-long fatigue issues. Typically, a player who transfers is forced to sit for a year but it is expected that Meyer will petition the NCAA for a waiver to allow him to play next season.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Ducks pending UFA center Antoine Vermette acknowledged to TVA Sports’ Mario Morrisette that he may have played his final game. While he’s hopeful to land another contract for next season, he wants to be closer to his family and has already ruled out the idea of going overseas. The soon-to-be 36-year-old had just 16 points in 64 games with Anaheim and got into just a pair of playoff contests where he played just over six minutes per game. However, he won 60% of his faceoffs which could still help him garner some interest in free agency next month.
- Penguins GM Jim Rutherford is well-known for being aggressive when it comes to shaping his roster and after they fell in the second round this postseason, many expect changes are coming. One player that could be on the move is winger Bryan Rust, suggests Mark Madden of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The pending RFA is due a sizable raise after posting 38 points in 69 games but Pittsburgh has good depth on the right side and plans to have Daniel Sprong (also a right winger) in the lineup regularly in 2018-19 which could make Rust expendable. The 26-year-old is arbitration eligible and is one year away from qualifying for unrestricted free agency.