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Bo Horvat

Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat

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As things currently stand, two of the Vancouver Canucks’ most important players are slated to hit unrestricted free agency. One of them, Bo Horvat, is the Canucks’ captain and heart-and-soul two-way center. The other is J.T. Miller, the Canucks’ leading scorer by a large margin and most accomplished offensive player.

The Athletic’s Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal issued updates on the situations of both players today. (subscription link) For Horvat, the landscape is relatively simple. The team wants to retain its captain, and Horvat by all accounts wants to remain with the only NHL franchise he has ever played for. Drance and Dhaliwal report that there was a “sense of optimism” earlier this summer that an extension between Horvat and the Canucks would be completed relatively quickly, but that hasn’t happened yet. Now, it seems there is “somewhat less optimism than there had been in late June” that a deal will be reached shortly.

It still remains the overwhelming probability that Horvat re-signs in Vancouver, but the lack of any news on positive progress towards a new deal is notable. Horvat, 27, is an accomplished two-way center who scored a career-high 31 goals last season. If Horvat looks at Kevin Hayes’ long-term contract with the Flyers, a deal that costs over $7MM per year, and the twin $8MM AAV deals the San Jose Sharks are paying Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, he may decide that a deal at or around $7MM AAV is what he wants on his next contract.

With many major contracts already on their books and a looming extension for Elias Pettersson due in two years’ time, it would be understandable if the Canucks are hesitant to go that far for Horvat, a great player but not a franchise centerpiece. That being said, a loss of Horvat would leave a significant hole in the Canucks’ roster, especially if the team is set on playing Pettersson as a winger moving forward.

Much of what happens with Horvat, then, could depend on the fate of Miller. With a 99-point season under his belt, Miller is in an extremely strong negotiating position. He’s been a truly elite talent as a Canuck, and likely wants to be compensated with a contract that reflects the value he’s put forth these past few seasons.

The challenge with Miller for the Canucks, then, is if he’s worth the massive contract he’s earned and, more importantly, if giving him such a lucrative extension that covers his thirties is appropriate for a team whose core base of talent is still in their early-to-mid twenties.

Drance and Dhaliwal report that the Canucks privately “continue to insist that retaining Miller is their preference.” Even so, Miller’s own preferences could throw a wrench in the possibility of him remaining in Vancouver. Miller’s agent, Brian Bartlett, told The Athletic that Miller’s camp will “opt to cut off all discussions on a new contract once the regular season commences.” Such a stance might look familiar to some fans, as it’s the route Johnny Gaudreau took this past season while negotiating with the Calgary Flames.

Gaudreau eventually left the Flames and signed elsewhere, and that could be the position the Canucks are in a year from now if they stay the current course with Miller.

So, that brings up the question that will likely serve as the major storyline for the Canucks’ season, at least until a resolution is found. Do the Canucks settle on trading Miller if an extension isn’t reached by the start of the season? Would the Canucks, who still haven’t gone through a full season with their new front office and coaching staff, keep an unextended Miller past the deadline in the hopes that he’ll boost their competitive chances?

Those are the major questions facing the Canucks so far, and the first domino could fall if an extension for Horvat is finalized before the start of the season. Whichever route the Canucks opt to go down, it’s likely that the 2022-23 season will be one of great consequence for the Canucks’ organization.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

West Notes: Forsberg, Horvat, Oilers Coaching Staff

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Recently, we covered how Filip Forsberg and the Nashville Predators’ negotiations on a new contract had been difficult, with both sides still “far apart” in terms of what a potential extension would look like. A week later, the situation remains uncertain. TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on the status of the negotiations today, clarifying that while the gap between the team and player is said to be less than $1MM per year, there still has not been “a lot of progress” on finalizing a deal. With the eight-year term already agreed upon, that relatively small gap in the negotiation could cause the situation to drag on until potentially even the start of free agency.

With the gap under $1MM, it’ll be extremely interesting to see if Forsberg remains a Predator. He is the team’s all-time leading goal scorer and among their most important players. GM David Poile is a firm negotiator, and the Predators’ reluctance to give n0-trade protection on deals has been well-publicized. So, with that reputation in mind, it’s fair to wonder if Poile will let that six-figure gap be the reason Forsberg departs Nashville. From most fans’ perspectives, it seems like an easy question: the small bump in cost is worth avoiding the trouble of finding a replacement player. But to cement a deal with the long-tenured Poile, who is no stranger to letting important players leave in free agency, perhaps Forsberg will be the one who will need to compromise.

Now, for some other notes from across the NHL’s Western Conference:

  • While J.T. Miller has been the name most frequently mentioned in trade rumors, Vancouver Canucks captain Bo Horvat actually has an identical contract situation, as he too will become an unrestricted free agent next summer. But unlike Miller, Horvat probably won’t be on the move anytime soon, hence his absence in the rumor mill. Per Thomas Drance of The Athletic (subscription link), the Canucks are “completely invested” in retaining Horvat beyond the expiry of his current contract. It’s easy to see why, as Horvat is among the team’s most important leaders and is still a highly effective on-ice talent. The 27-year-old pivot crossed the 30-goal plateau last year for the first time in his career and should be in line for a moderate raise from his current $5.5MM cap hit.
  • The Edmonton Oilers finalized their coaching situation when they removed the interim tag from coach Jay Woodcroft’s job title. Now, it seems that Woodcroft’s full coaching staff is taking shape. Per Dreger, Oilers assistant Brian Wiseman is “moving on” from the team, while fellow coaches Dave Manson and Glen Gulutzan are expected to stay in Edmonton. Wiseman is a former twelfth-round pick who has been an assistant coach in Edmonton for three seasons. Before then, he was part of the coaching staff at his alma mater, the University of Michigan. While a return to the college ranks is possible, Wiseman will certainly have options, as Dreger reports that he is set to have “strong interest” from a “variety of teams.”

Latest On J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat

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When Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin took over the Vancouver Canucks, things seemed dire. The team was at the bottom of the standings, the cap situation was a mess, and many of the team’s top players were underperforming. Trade speculation immediately exploded, most notably regarding the trio of J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat, and Brock Boeser. There was no way the team could keep them all, while the group struggled to even stay competitive on the ice.

A few months and one spectacular late-season run later, things don’t appear to be nearly as chaotic in Vancouver. Bruce Boudreau will be back as head coach and there is at least some optimism that the team can get back to the playoffs as soon as next season.

Of course, there is still the issue of that trio of expensive forwards. Boeser is a restricted free agent this summer, while Miller and Horvat are both in the final year of their contracts. The latter two are extension candidates well ahead of that UFA status, and Rutherford spoke to CHEK TV today about both, explaining that while the plan is to sign them, nothing is decided yet:

We’re already in a tough situation cap wise, and we’re trying to gradually untangle that so we can add new players. So any player that has a contract that’s up, or in the future, we are going to project where they fit within our cap so we can add more players and make this team better. It’s not just about J.T., it’s all players. 

I really like Bo. I’ve always liked him back to his junior hockey days. There has been good discussions with him after the season. He had a good year this year, 30-some goals. He’s got a lot of good hockey left in him. He’s a character guy. He’s a center that’s hard to find. We believe he should be part of our team going forward. 

On Boeser, who recently lost his father, Rutherford explained that the team is letting the family go through a grieving period before taking a look at next season, and wouldn’t really go into contract negotiations other than to confirm that the team believes they can fit in the $7.5MM qualifying offer that’s due as a restricted free agent.

The most interesting part of the interview may be the idea that the team is trying to “untangle” their cap situation, especially given the whispers that they are trying to find a market for Oliver Ekman-Larsson. The $7.26MM cap hit that Ekman-Larsson carries for the Canucks (the Arizona Coyotes are retaining a small portion of his full $8.25MM hit) makes it much more difficult to sign players like Miller and Horvat long-term, as the veteran defenseman is signed through 2026-27. Still, even then there should be some wiggle room, with Tyler Myers, Tanner Pearson, and Jason Dickinson all coming off the books in 2024.

Officially, extensions with Miller and Horvat would not be possible until after the hockey calendar rolls over in July when free agency opens. One of the last things Rutherford said today was that he understands people are impatient but stressed the need for his front office to take things step by step and avoid making a mistake as they look to turn things around.

2022 King Clancy Trophy Nominees Announced

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The NHL has announced the 31 nominees for the King Clancy Memorial Trophy, annually presented to “the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community.” Last year’s winner was Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators.

Each team submits one nominee. This year’s are:

Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Getzlaf

Arizona Coyotes: Andrew Ladd

Boston Bruins: Nick Foligno

Buffalo Sabres: Jeff Skinner

Calgary Flames: Mikael Backlund

Carolina Hurricanes: Jordan Staal

Chicago Blackhawks: Connor Murphy

Colorado Avalanche: Nazem Kadri

Columbus Blue Jackets: Jack Roslovic

Dallas Stars: Jason Robertson

Detroit Red Wings: Alex Nedeljkovic

Edmonton Oilers: Darnell Nurse

Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov

Los Angeles Kings: Cal Petersen

Minnesota Wild: Matt Dumba

Montreal Canadiens: Jake Allen

Nashville Predators: Luke Kunin

New Jersey Devils: P.K. Subban

New York Islanders: Anders Lee

New York Rangers: Chris Kreider

Ottawa Senators: Nick Holden

Philadelphia Flyers: Scott Laughton

Pittsburgh Penguins: Bryan Rust

San Jose Sharks: Matt Nieto

Seattle Kraken: Jaden Schwartz

St. Louis Blues: Ryan O’Reilly

Tampa Bay Lightning: Victor Hedman

Toronto Maple Leafs: Wayne Simmonds

Vancouver Canucks: Bo Horvat

Vegas Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty

Washington Capitals: Garnet Hathaway

Winnipeg Jets: Josh Morrissey

Snapshots: Horvat, Kane, Matthews

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The Vancouver Canucks are steaming toward the playoffs, and they’re doing it without captain Bo Horvat, who left a game last week with a lower-body injury. Ruled out for at least two weeks, it seems he only has a chance to return this year if the Canucks do in fact come all the way back and grab a spot in the Western Conference postseason. Even if they are able to do that, his regular season ended with 31 goals in 70 games, a career-high, and a total that sets him up for quite well the summer.

Eligible for an extension in July when the calendar flips from 2021-22 to 2022-23, Horvat has just one year left on his current deal. He would be an unrestricted free agent after that and with the uncertainty surrounding the Canucks after making sweeping changes to the front office, it wasn’t clear if a new contract would be on the table. Today, his agent Pat Morris was on CHEK TV with Rick Dhaliwal, and explained that the Canucks management likes Horvat, and Horvat loves Vancouver and would like to stay. The two sides will “talk when the time is right,” suggesting no negotiations have taken place to this point. While the focus for everyone is on the playoff chase, things in Vancouver will quickly turn to the future if they aren’t able to secure a position in the postseason.

  • Evander Kane’s grievance hearing with the league over his contract termination began this morning, according to Darren Dreger of TSN. The Edmonton Oilers forward is away from the team for a few days while he deals with this grievance, which is fighting the process which the San Jose Sharks used to terminate the more than $22MM that remained on his seven-year contract. The decision is not expected for some time and will likely have no impact on his current contract status with the Oilers, regardless of the outcome.
  • The league’s leading goal scorer will have to wait for a chance to chase 60, as Auston Matthews is still not playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs this evening, despite feeling “really good” according to head coach Sheldon Keefe, who spoke with reporters including Mark Masters of TSN. The Maple Leafs are obviously more concerned about their first-round playoff matchup than individual performance records, as they still haven’t advanced in the postseason since 2004. Matthews still leads in the Rocket Richard race, four ahead of Leon Draisaitl in second place.

Canucks’ Bo Horvat Out Rest Of Regular Season

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Though the Vancouver Canucks are still in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference, they face an uphill battle to qualify for the postseason. The team sits three points behind the Vegas Golden Knights for the final spot in the Pacific, with the Los Angeles Kings between them, and are even further behind the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars in the wild card hunt. Vancouver deserves recognition for their second-half turnaround, but still seem likely to fall short.

With today’s news, the Canucks’ playoff hopes now seem all but dashed. With exactly two weeks remaining in their regular season schedule, Vancouver has announced that captain Bo Horvat has been shut down due to an undisclosed lower-body injury. Horvat will be re-evaluated… in two weeks. The announcement comes as a relative surprise; Horvat left Thursday’s game after blocking a shot, but that decision was deemed precautionary and he has since been considered merely day-to-day. As it turns out, the prognosis is much more severe.

Horvat, 26, is Vancouver’s leading goal scorer with 31 tallies on the year. He is also fourth on the Canucks in scoring with 52 points in 70 games and second among forwards in time on ice, not to mention their top face-off man. In his fourth consecutive season of at least .70 points per game, Horvat potentially could have set a career-high in scoring this season if not for the injury. Now, Horvat will have to sit and watch as his team likely misses the playoffs and heads into a contract year in 2022-23 with an even more uncertain future.

To add to the bad news, the Canucks also confirmed the suspicion that young winger Nils Hoglander will not return from injury this season. Hoglander has missed the past month with a “week-to-week” groin injury with little update on his status in the interim. Today, Vancouver reported that Hoglander has in fact undergone surgery to correct the core muscle/groin injury and there is no timetable for his return. The typical recovery period for such a procedure is three to eight weeks, meaning Hoglander’s regular season is over and barring a miraculous stretch run and postseason, he is done for the year.

 

Canucks Notes: Boudreau, Horvat, Karlsson

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Bruce Boudreau’s future in Vancouver has been a frequent talking point in recent weeks with the Canucks holding a team option on his contract for next season and a different management group in place since the bench boss was hired.  However, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports in the latest Insider Trading segment that there’s a strong chance the 67-year-old will be retained.  He certainly has earned another opportunity with the team posting a 29-13-8 record since he took over to at least have an outside shot at making the playoffs.  However, a final decision won’t come until after the season the team does a full organizational review so it will be a few more weeks at least before anything is made official on that front.

More from Vancouver:

  • While center Bo Horvat left Thursday’s victory against Arizona after taking a shot off his leg, Boudreau told reporters including Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that the decision to keep him out of the game was precautionary with Vancouver holding a lead at the time. However, Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre adds (Twitter link) that the captain isn’t expected to play in their next game on Monday and is listed as out day-to-day.
  • Canucks prospect forward Linus Karlsson will be joining the Swedish National Team in preparation for the upcoming World Championships, notes Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK and The Athletic (Twitter link). The 2018 third-rounder impressed in his first SHL season, tallying 26 goals and 20 assists in 52 games.  He has to sign his entry-level deal by June 1st or Vancouver will lose his rights.  Worth noting is that Karlsson is already under contract with Skelleftea for next season but that wouldn’t prevent him from signing an NHL contract.

Bo Horvat, Mike Reilly Placed In COVID Protocol

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The Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks have both announced new additions to the COVID protocol today, obviously affecting their lineup for tonight’s action.

In Vancouver, it’s captain Bo Horvat that is now unavailable to the club, as they look to try and put another dash in the win column this evening. Horvat was a huge part of the team’s win Sunday night against the Washington Capitals, scoring the game-winning goal and registering an assist in more than 20 minutes of ice time. Those two points took his season total to 23 in 38 games, good for fourth on the team and third among forwards.

His absence will be felt all over the ice but perhaps most in the faceoff dot, where he takes more than twice as many draws as anyone else on the Canucks roster. In fact, Horvat leads all NHL players in faceoffs this season, taking 891 through 38 games so far. His 503 wins sit just barely behind Patrice Bergeron for the league lead; the Bruins captain has an incredible 63% win rate this season.

Boston meanwhile will be without Mike Reilly, who enters the protocol after playing more than 21 minutes on Saturday night against the Nashville Predators (Nashville will face Vancouver tonight). The 28-year-old defenseman has found a home with the Bruins, where he has seen more ice time than anywhere else on his NHL journey and contributes in all situations. While he has just nine points in 32 games this season, Reilly’s puck-moving ability is an important piece of the puzzle for Boston.

Luckily, Matt Grzelcyk is set to return after his own stint on the COVID protocol, meaning the Bruins won’t really miss a beat. Urho Vaakanainen will also be afforded a bit more time with the big club, something he has taken advantage of in recent days. The young defenseman will skate beside Charlie McAvoy and very well could break the 20-minute mark for the fourth consecutive game.

Canucks Receiving Strong Trade Interest In Bo Horvat

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It has been a tough couple of years in Vancouver.  They underwhelmed considerably last season and after adding some key pieces over the summer including Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Jaroslav Halak, there was an expectation that they’d be back in playoff contention.  That hasn’t happened as the Canucks have limped to a 6-13-2 record and are already fading from the postseason picture.

As is often the case with teams in this situation, trade speculation is sure to follow.  In a recent interview on Sportsnet 650 (audio link), Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK and The Athletic reported that Vancouver is fielding plenty of trade calls but at this time, the bulk of those calls have been focused on one player – Bo Horvat.

The 26-year-old has been with Vancouver for his entire career after being drafted ninth overall back in 2013.  He is in his third season as their captain and after he signed a long-term contract in 2017 following his entry-level deal, it felt like he was going to be a part of their plans for the long run.  Along the way, he went from being deployed primarily as a checker into becoming a strong two-way center for the Canucks.

However, that contract is only a year and a half away from ending and with things certainly not looking great for Vancouver, it’s certainly reasonable to speculate as to whether or not Horvat would be willing to sign another long-term pact, particularly if they shift gears and look towards a rebuild.  Clearly, several general managers around the league seem to have that idea with Horvat driving a lot of the trade inquiries at this stretch.

While Horvat is off to a bit of a slow start offensively this season with six goals and five assists through the first 21 games, he’s still the type of player that could command a sizable return.  He still often receives the toughest checking assignments and is quite strong at the faceoff dot, elements that contending teams always covet while a change of scenery could certainly get him going offensively again as well.

Horvat carries a $5.5MM AAV this season and next which is certainly below market value for a player of his caliber.  He also doesn’t have any trade protection which will make it a bit easier to facilitate a trade.

While Vancouver would understandably like to keep Horvat in the fold, he’s also arguably their best trade chip as none of their rentals – headlined by Halak and winger Tyler Motte – wouldn’t come close to yielding the type of return that Horvat would.  If they do decide to rebuild, Horvat is the type of player that should bring back a minimum of a first-round pick and a top prospect plus likely some other pieces as well.

The future was supposed to be now in terms of Vancouver’s playoff prospects but that’s looking less and less likely.  As a result, the Canucks may soon need to make some decisions about key veterans and with the type of interest Horvat appears to be generating, he could very well be a strong candidate to be traded if they indeed start looking towards the future.

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