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Bo Horvat

Latest On Bo Horvat

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With every day that passes, it seems a new report emerges about the lack of progress in Bo Horvat extension talks. Today, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet writes that “it’s not trending well.” Horvat is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.

Of course, some of the same things were said this summer about the Vancouver Canucks and J.T. Miller, before the two sides eventually agreed on a seven-year, $56MM extension that includes a full-no-movement clause through 2026-27. Most insiders at the time had expected the Canucks to trade Miller instead of extending him, something that obviously didn’t happen as the veteran forward instead cashed in with a deal that includes $8.5MM in signing bonuses the first year.

So, until he actually hits the open market or is traded, things could change with regard to Horvat. But it is Miller’s contract that might end up forcing the Canucks to move on. The team is not good enough to contend for the Stanley Cup right now, despite a pair of crazy victories in recent days, and also has several expensive, underperforming contracts on the books.

Miller is still scoring at a good clip but has been anything but consistent this year, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s deal looks like one of the worst in the league as he plays through his age-31 season. The veteran defenseman will carry a $7.26MM cap hit for another four more years (and that’s not counting the portion the Arizona Coyotes are retaining).

Signing Horvat, then, would just add more money onto the pile without actually improving the Canucks roster. There’s no doubt that the 27-year-old center will be commanding more than his current $5.4MM cap hit in a new deal, especially after scoring 20 goals in his first 20 games this year. Goal-scoring centers are some of the highest-paid commodities in the league, as seen by Miller’s massive extension after a career-best 32 goals in 2021-22.

It should be noted that Horvat does not have trade protection in his current deal, meaning the Canucks could auction him off if necessary. Friedman notes that Canucks president Jim Rutherford will likely wait until February to try and squeeze the most value out of any deal, and suggests Luke Schenn as another chip he could cash in.

West Notes: Horvat, Meier, Kane

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During a difficult start to their season, one of the few bright spots on the Vancouver Canucks’ roster has been the play of captain Bo Horvat. Horvat currently ranks second in the NHL with 15 goals, and has 21 points in 19 games. But while his hot start is good news for Horvat and Canucks fans, it may be giving Vancouver’s management team some headaches. That’s because Horvat is a pending unrestricted free agent, and the better he plays, the larger the contract he’ll be able to receive this summer gets. And while they are undoubtedly thrilled from an on-ice perspective that Horvat is playing well, his hot start may complicate his future in Vancouver. As team president Jim Rutherford has said that the Canucks’ priority will be gaining long-term financial flexibility, not losing it, many have wondered if Horvat is pricing himself out of Vancouver’s long-term plans.

Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports that communication between Horvat’s representation and the Canucks have been “scarce,” and that there is a belief that contract talks between the two parties “broke off before training camp and have not resumed.” Since the going rate for productive top-six centermen is $7MM per year at the absolute minimum (with upwards of $8MM being the more realistic number) it’s fair to wonder if the Canucks have the desire to extend Horvat rather than deal him to a contender for a major compensation package.

For some other notes regarding Western Conference players:

  • San Jose Sharks forward Timo Meier isn’t a pending unrestricted free agent, but his expensive qualifying offer (he’s making $10MM this season on just a $6MM cap hit) and the current state of the Sharks (7-11-3, 25th in the NHL) leads one to believe that his time in San Jose could be coming to an end. Seravalli writes that it’s “unlikely” that the Sharks commit to a long-term pact with Meier, meaning a trade could be the most likely outcome for his future in teal. According to Seravalli, Meier’s “starting value on the [trade] market is considerably less than the Alex DeBrincat deal last summer,” the deal that netted the Blackhawks three draft picks, including the seventh-overall selection.
  • Legendary forward Patrick Kane could be the most sought-after name on this spring’s trade market, and it appears that the process of working towards trading him is set to begin soon. Per Seravalli, the Chicago Blackhawks are expected to “begin an initial conversation with Kane to gauge his interest in a trade.” Kane has full no-move protection, meaning he controls much of this trade process. Kane has been a Blackhawk for his entire career, so it’s certainly possible that being traded isn’t something he’ll allow. But if he wants to chase another Stanley Cup, remaining a Blackhawk won’t get him there.

Evening Notes: Horvat, Senators Sale, Samsonov

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It was not long ago that, with as many question marks as there were around the Vancouver Canucks, the obvious answer was an extension for team captain Bo Horvat. Whether or not players like J.T. Miller or Brock Boeser were or were not traded or if head coach Bruce Boudreau would be brought back for this season, a Horvat extension always seemed to be a given. Now, after extensions for Miller and Boeser, the free agent signing of Ilya Mikheyev, and the Canucks’ rocky start to the season, with no extension in place for the captain, things appear more uncertain than they’ve ever been for Horvat and Vancouver.

On tonight’s 32 Thoughts segment of Hockey Night In Canada, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reiterated the story on Horvat: the needle has not moved at all in negotiations. Marek further emphasized the curiosity as to what the organization will ultimately do with Horvat. On one hand, the reunion between both sides appears to be a perfect match and as much as the Canucks have struggled to start the season, Horvat with his 10 goals in 11 games, has not. Still, the more the veteran continues to score, the higher he drives his price. With Miller and Boeser now in place, if the price becomes higher than Vancouver wishes to pay, or simply can pay, the decision might be made for them. And, should Vancouver struggle or fail to make up the ground they lost, Horvat’s trade value may be enough to dissuade them from pursuing an extension in the first place.

  • Yesterday, the Ottawa Senators formally initiated the process of being sold, just over seven months after the passing of owner Eugene Melnyk. Though that time might seem a bit longer than expected to some, the Melnyk family was able to oversee a team transition this offseason to lock in some of the organization’s young core talent, become one of the league’s more exciting groups, and of course, grieve Melnyk’s passing. Although the timeline to date has been unclear, the sale process might be a bit more clear, and quick. Also from tonight’s 32 Thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman expects the process to get seriously moving by American Thanksgiving, which is now 19 days away. No clear front runner(s) for the team have emerged yet, though Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the league would prefer one majority owner over a group of minority shareholders. Even with the Thanksgiving timetable mentioned, when exactly a new owner would be in place with all formalities and transition of power completed, is unclear.
  • More tough news for the Toronto Maple Leafs in net as goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who started tonight’s game against the Boston Bruins, was forced to leave after the second period. The Maple Leafs confirmed their goaltender would not return while dealing with a knee injury. According to head coach Sheldon Keefe, who discussed the injury with reporters, including Joshua Clipperton of The Canadien Press, was suffered during Brad Marchand’s penalty shot. The extent of the injury or any time he could miss is not yet clear, however Toronto is already working around the loss of Matt Murray in net, who is on LTIR with an abductor injury. Murray was scheduled to miss four weeks with that injury and is currently through three, however a scheduled return is not yet known. Erik Kallgren, who has been acting as the Maple Leafs backup goaltender, is certainly a capable NHL netminder, however the only other goaltender Toronto has under contract is Dennis Hildeby, a 2022 draft pick currently on loan in his native Sweden. Interestingly, the Maple Leafs had been pressed against the 50 contract limit–until today. With forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel lost on waivers to the Washington Capitals this afternoon, Toronto now has just 49 of 50 contracts in their system, enough to add one more player. Should they need to do so, they’ll have to act quick and be creative, with puck drop in Carolina scheduled for 5:00 pm ET tomorrow afternoon.

 

Latest On The State Of The Vancouver Canucks

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It’s no secret the Vancouver Canucks are struggling to start the season; in fact, it’s probably the biggest storyline of the young NHL season. After the team similarly struggled to start last season, they fired then-Head Coach Travis Green, replacing him with Bruce Boudreau. Post-coaching-change, the team went on a sensational run to finish the season, nearly securing a playoff berth. Despite the turn around, many believed the organization would look to make some rather substantial changes to its core, centered around trades of Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller. Instead, both players were extended and remain with the team.

The outlook for this season appeared questionable, as the group didn’t seem like a basement team or a Stanley Cup contender. However the 0-4-2 start, which included a record-breaking four straight losses after having a multi-goal lead to start the season, was unexpected and has created plenty of frustration in Vancouver among players, coaches, management, media, and fans alike.

Last night after the Canucks’ 5-1 loss at home to the Buffalo Sabres, Canucks President Jim Rutherford appeared on Hockey Night In Canada to discuss an array of topics, but most notably, the state of the Canucks. When asked whether the organization was “steadfastly opposed” to a rebuild, Rutherford said:

“Well, I think people have to realize how long rebuilds are. You look at some of the teams that went through it, and we look at how good they are now, but there were a lot of tough years. We may very well be in a rebuild in the direction we’re going. But, ideally we’d like to transition this team on the fly.”

Rutherford’s comments are quite interesting as they seem to give a genuine answer, but one that is at the same time, not very clear as to what exactly that means or where the organization sees itself going, points out ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski.

Looking closer, in onsense, a rebuild on the fly could look something like the Dallas Stars, who transitioned from a team lead by Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg, and Ben Bishop, featuring up-and-comers like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen, and Jake Oettinger, to one that’s now lead by Robertson, Hintz, Heiskanen and Oettinger, featuring veterans like Benn, Seguin, and Joe Pavelski, as well as top prospects like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque and Riley Damiani. The Stars transition was made up of teams that were rarely non-competitive and at its height, included a Stanley Cup Final appearance. Vancouver, much like those Dallas teams has, and has had, plenty of talent up and down its roster.

Another way of looking at the ’on the fly’ rebuild is a team like the New York Rangers, who chose to hold on to a few key building blocks like Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich and Chris Kreider, but deal a majority of their veteran players for young players and draft picks. Instead of taking a drawn out approach, the team went after top free agent talent, primarily Artemi Panarin, counted on the development of prospects they already had or were able to select with their returns, namely Igor Shesterkin and K’Andre Miller, and admittedly got somewhat lucky with players like Adam Fox choosing them and the draft lottery helping them select Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere. But, unlike Dallas, the Rangers quicker approach involved trading top talent and a few very lean years in the standings. It also involved, ironically when looking at the current Canucks, trading J.T. Miller.

Worth considering when it comes to the Canucks as they stand right now, is transitioning on the fly isn’t as clear as it is for other teams. For the Rangers, the writing was on the wall that the long-term future of the franchise was not J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard, or Kevin Hayes. Those players were taking a substantial portion of their salary cap and for some, getting close to hitting the free agent market. In Dallas, Benn had struggled, Seguin had injury woes, and Klingberg seemed to be a luxury they one-day couldn’t afford, but their young players all seemed to be developing as well as expected – it appeared it was merely a matter of time.

After the above quote on the state of the franchise, Rutherford continued:

“We do have some core players, some young players, that are really good. We just have to keep working and try to work through this. But we will continue to try to add younger players to this team and bring it together here in the next year or so.”

In Vancouver, the pieces rumored to be on the go the most were Miller and Boeser, who were both extended this offseason. The future of Bo Horvat, the team’s captain, was up in the air, but an extension seemed forthcoming after Boeser and Miller, however Horvat remains unsigned with free agency looming this coming offseason. There appears to be another young core coming, just like there was in Dallas, with Elias Pettersson, Vasily Podkolzin, Quinn Hughes, and Thatcher Demko, but it’s that core that is starting to take shape in Vancouver, along with Miller, Boeser, and Horvat, that has gone through two consecutive rough starts.

The continuation of Rutherford’s words indicates his confidence in moving forward with that young core. But, notably, the team does not have the rich farm system a team like Dallas did. Forward Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Vancouver’s first-round pick in 2022, is the team’s first opening round selection since Podkolzin back in 2019.

All of this to say, the Canucks are still 0-4-2. Six games into the season, the team is not remotely close to being out of playoff contention. Last year’s Canucks, who started 8-15-2 appeared to be in a much more bleak position when Green was fired than they are now, and that team barely missed a playoff spot. That said, although a rebound is quite possible, Vancouver is still in a precarious position. One bit of Rutherford’s comments, separated from the rest, does appear to give an element clarity, at least depending how this story continues to unfold: “We may very well be in a rebuild in the direction we are going.”

Salary Cap Could Increase More Than Expected In 2023

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Speaking with the media today, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said there’s a “good probability” that the remaining COVID-related escrow balance could be paid by the players this season, and remains optimistic about revenues. If the escrow balance gets paid off, the salary cap could jump more than the predicted $1MM incremental increase, two years sooner than originally expected coming out of the pandemic.

Bettman did note that it would be a close call, but if the revenue numbers hit, the cap could jump roughly $4MM to a figure of around $86.5MM for the 2023-24 season. The league’s cap growth would then mirror pre-pandemic trends, if not more.

This is gigantic news for a number of teams, especially those who have big-name free agents due for contracts by July 1 of next year. It also bodes well for teams tight to the salary cap to be able to have more roster flexibility in the offseason.

That list of big-name unrestricted free agents next summer is no joke, and a ~$4MM salary cap increase would have a massive effect on many negotiations. Ryan O’Reilly in St. Louis, David Pastrnak in Boston, Dylan Larkin in Detroit, Bo Horvat in Vancouver, and Frederik Andersen in Carolina are some notables who could re-sign with their current teams for a big payday.

It also makes life easier for teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, who are poised to get a healthy Robin Lehner back but already remain well over the currently projected $83.5MM salary cap for 2023-24.

Forward Notes: Horvat, Larkin, Drouin

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Vancouver Canucks captain Bo Horvat has spent his entire NHL career with the franchise that drafted him, but as a pending UFA, his time in Vancouver could be coming to an end. Last month, we covered how Horvat had expressed a a desire to remain in Vancouver. Today that picture got a bit more cloudy. Speaking on CHEK’s Donnie and Dhali podcast, Horvat’s agent, Pat Morris, said that he believes “Bo is a number-one center,” a comment made in reaction to the use of Sean Couturier’s $7.75MM AAV deal as a comparable for the contract he’s seeking for Horvat. With the Canucks’ currently tight cap situation, it’s an open question as to whether Vancouver will be able to afford the sort of contract Horvat is seeking.

Morris’ belief that Horvat is a number-one center is telling as to how Horvat’s representation will approach contract negotiations going into their client’s potential unrestricted free agency this summer. The going rate for top-six centers in the NHL in their UFA years is around $8MM AAV, if not more, based on recent deals. We’ve seen centers such as Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Ryan Johansen, and Mathew Barzal all hit or surpass that number on their own long-term deals. Horvat scored 31 goals and 52 points last season and brings the sort of defensive value and leadership intangibles teams covet, so it’s not unreasonable that a deal in that wide $7MM-$9MM range is Horvat’s target. For the Canucks, though, it’s fair to wonder whether they’ll be able to afford that sort of contract. With the recent J.T. Miller extension and other players making significant dollars already on their books, it’s definitely possible that the Canucks simply won’t be able to offer Horvat the sort of deal he could receive from another club.

Now, for some other notes regarding forwards from across the NHL:

  • Horvat isn’t the only top-six center and team captain to be a pending unrestricted free agent. Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin is also set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and he too is reportedly seeking a major extension. Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports on TSN’s Insider Trading program that “the plan is” for Larkin’s representatives to introduce Barzal’s recent $9.15MM AAV deal as a contract comparable for Larkin’s next deal. Larkin scored 69 points in 71 games last season, and with another strong year he could fully cement himself as deserving of such a lucrative extension.
  • The Montreal Canadiens were without forward Jonathan Drouin for last night’s season-opening game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they may not be without him for much longer. On the Insider Trading program, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Drouin is at “90%” health and getting ready to return to action in the near future. The Canadiens are currently running Cole Caufield, Sean Monahan, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Rem Pitlick as their four left wingers, meaning it’s not immediately clear where Drouin fits into their lineup. But regardless of where he ultimately finds himself on the ice, getting him back to full health is undoubtedly good news for Montreal.

Latest On Bo Horvat

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If there was any concern that Bo Horvat was the one holding up any extension talks with the Vancouver Canucks, he put it to rest today. Horvat explained to the media including Thomas Drance of The Athletic that he wants to be a part of the Canucks long-term, and that he is leaving the negotiation up to his agents without putting a deadline on the talks.

Horvat, 27, is signed through the end of 2022-23 at a $5.5MM cap hit, the final season in a six-year, $33MM contract he inked in 2017. The two-way center was named the 14th captain in franchise history in 2019 at the age of 24, following Henrik Sedin’s tenure with the “C.”

It seemed earlier this summer like an extension was inevitable but after the team handed seven years and $56MM to J.T. Miller, some have wondered whether the Canucks would be able to fit Horvat in on a long-term deal.

The good thing in this scenario is that there doesn’t appear to be any rush from either side. Sometimes, players put a deadline of the beginning of the season on negotiations, not wanting to have any conversations while they are playing. That’s what happened with the Calgary Flames and Johnny Gaudreau, for instance, leaving a short window after the year ended to try and get something done before the star forward reached free agency.

If Horvat hasn’t put a timeline on things, there will be more space to breathe for the Canucks and time to move in a different direction if necessary. Still, if an extension isn’t worked out in the next few weeks, plenty of questions will follow Horvat throughout the year.

Latest On Bo Horvat’s Extension Negotiations

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With J.T. Miller now signed long-term, questions in Vancouver have now turned to the future of Bo Horvat. General manager Patrik Allvin touched on negotiations with his captain at today’s media availability:

Bo is our captain. We respect and we like Bo. We’re communicating with his camp, and we’ll see if there is a deal to be made here. 

There was no hint of frustration from Allvin – in fact, it seemed more as though Horvat’s talks had been pushed to the back burner while they dealt with Miller, and that they would now get into them. Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek discussed the situation on Sportsnet’s 32 Thoughts podcast, with the former explaining that the last he had heard was “not much going on there.” Both hosts believe that an extension will be done at some point.

Horvat, 27, has one year left on his current contract and carries a $5.5MM cap hit for the 2022-23 season, after which he will become an unrestricted free agent. The ninth overall pick in 2013 is coming off a career-best 31-goal season (in just 70 games) and has been the team’s most consistent offensive producer with five 20+ goal seasons in his eight-year career.

How the Canucks fit Horvat into the picture is another story. As we examined recently the Canucks cap situation isn’t excellent, with Tyler Myers’ $6MM hit still on the books through 2023-24 and Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s $7.26MM through 2026-27, but there should be enough flexibility to add in a raise for Horvat if the team decides to do that. If they do, the question will then become how can the Canucks surround that core with enough talent to really compete in the next few years, given they are likely going to face some pain at the end of these long-term deals.

Even though a late-season surge put them extremely close to a playoff spot, the team still lost 42 games (including overtime and shootout), not exactly the number a contender can point to as a reason to spend. If they do decide to keep Horvat long-term, there is plenty of risk to the way that Allvin and president Jim Rutherford are operating. Being “stuck in the middle” – meaning good enough to avoid the top few draft slots but not good enough to really challenge for the Stanley Cup – is something that teams try to avoid at all costs. The team already has six players signed through at least 2025-26, with only Hughes under the age of 26.

Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat

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As things currently stand, two of the Vancouver Canucks’ most important players are slated to hit unrestricted free agency. One of them, Bo Horvat, is the Canucks’ captain and heart-and-soul two-way center. The other is J.T. Miller, the Canucks’ leading scorer by a large margin and most accomplished offensive player.

The Athletic’s Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal issued updates on the situations of both players today. (subscription link) For Horvat, the landscape is relatively simple. The team wants to retain its captain, and Horvat by all accounts wants to remain with the only NHL franchise he has ever played for. Drance and Dhaliwal report that there was a “sense of optimism” earlier this summer that an extension between Horvat and the Canucks would be completed relatively quickly, but that hasn’t happened yet. Now, it seems there is “somewhat less optimism than there had been in late June” that a deal will be reached shortly.

It still remains the overwhelming probability that Horvat re-signs in Vancouver, but the lack of any news on positive progress towards a new deal is notable. Horvat, 27, is an accomplished two-way center who scored a career-high 31 goals last season. If Horvat looks at Kevin Hayes’ long-term contract with the Flyers, a deal that costs over $7MM per year, and the twin $8MM AAV deals the San Jose Sharks are paying Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, he may decide that a deal at or around $7MM AAV is what he wants on his next contract.

With many major contracts already on their books and a looming extension for Elias Pettersson due in two years’ time, it would be understandable if the Canucks are hesitant to go that far for Horvat, a great player but not a franchise centerpiece. That being said, a loss of Horvat would leave a significant hole in the Canucks’ roster, especially if the team is set on playing Pettersson as a winger moving forward.

Much of what happens with Horvat, then, could depend on the fate of Miller. With a 99-point season under his belt, Miller is in an extremely strong negotiating position. He’s been a truly elite talent as a Canuck, and likely wants to be compensated with a contract that reflects the value he’s put forth these past few seasons.

The challenge with Miller for the Canucks, then, is if he’s worth the massive contract he’s earned and, more importantly, if giving him such a lucrative extension that covers his thirties is appropriate for a team whose core base of talent is still in their early-to-mid twenties.

Drance and Dhaliwal report that the Canucks privately “continue to insist that retaining Miller is their preference.” Even so, Miller’s own preferences could throw a wrench in the possibility of him remaining in Vancouver. Miller’s agent, Brian Bartlett, told The Athletic that Miller’s camp will “opt to cut off all discussions on a new contract once the regular season commences.” Such a stance might look familiar to some fans, as it’s the route Johnny Gaudreau took this past season while negotiating with the Calgary Flames.

Gaudreau eventually left the Flames and signed elsewhere, and that could be the position the Canucks are in a year from now if they stay the current course with Miller.

So, that brings up the question that will likely serve as the major storyline for the Canucks’ season, at least until a resolution is found. Do the Canucks settle on trading Miller if an extension isn’t reached by the start of the season? Would the Canucks, who still haven’t gone through a full season with their new front office and coaching staff, keep an unextended Miller past the deadline in the hopes that he’ll boost their competitive chances?

Those are the major questions facing the Canucks so far, and the first domino could fall if an extension for Horvat is finalized before the start of the season. Whichever route the Canucks opt to go down, it’s likely that the 2022-23 season will be one of great consequence for the Canucks’ organization.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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