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Panthers Notes: MacKenzie, MacDonald, Montembeault

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Florida Panthers veteran forward Derek MacKenzie recently relinquished his captaincy to young centerpiece forward Aleksander Barkov, the reason for which has now become more clear. MacKenzie revealed to The Athletic’s George Richards recently that 2018-19 will be his final NHL season. The 37-year-old is in the final year of of two-year extension signed with the Panthers back in 2016 and his fifth year overall with the organization. MacKenzie is entering his sixteenth and final season, having worked his way up from a young, part-time player with the Atlanta Thrashers to a dependable fourth-liner with the Columbus Blue Jackets to a locker room leader and botto-six mainstay with Florida. However, it’s this hard-working style that has finally caught up to the respected veteran, as he tells Richards “the way I have had to play over the past 18 years — the pace I have to go — it has become tougher and tougher over the years.” MacKenzie’s usage and production has maintained relatively consistent in Florida, but he could be in for a drop-off this year, playing in a deep, young, and fast Panthers forward corps. MacKenzie recognizes that his years of wear and tear have caught up with him and that this season will be the last gasps of a hard-nosed career. However, it likely won’t be the end of his time with Florida, as MacKenzie adds that “I love this team, love this organization. I would like to try and stay involved and try and pick up where I left off.” MacKenzie may not be out on the ice for the Cats moving forward, but rest assured the former captain will still be present in the organization.

  • When the Panthers take the ice tonight in their opener against the Tampa Bay Lightning, it will mark the NHL debut for defenseman Jacob MacDonald, per Richards. Who? MacDonald, 25, is a largely unheralded prospect who has somehow worked his way into Florida’s starting lineup to begin the year. The team signed MacDonald to a two-year, two-way contract this off-season after three seasons in the minor leagues. The Cornell University graduate hasn’t even been exclusively in the AHL these past three years; he played most of the 2015-16 season in the ECHL and then split time between the two leagues in 2016-17. Only last year did he play his first full AHL season, skating in 75 games with the Binghamton Devils and leading the team with 55 points. He came into camp as unlikely candidate for the Panthers’ roster, but with injuries to Bogdan Kiselevich and Josh Brown and a nagging issue for MacKenzie Weegar, MacDonald has gotten the call. That is not to say that he hasn’t earned his spot though; experienced options like Ian McCoshen and Julian Melchiori were reassigned to the Springfield Thunderbirds while MacDonald remained in camp. The puck-moving defenseman will line up on the Panthers’ third pair with Alex Petrovic tonight and, if he sticks, could be one of the more inspiring stories of this season. For more, check out Erin Brown’s article for The Athletic.
  • Florida has one of the more concrete goalie tandems in the league with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. They even went out and added a solid third option in Michael Hutchinson this summer. However, those three keepers are 39, 30, and 28 years old respectively with birthdays on the way this season. Behind this group, the Panthers actually are one of the more shallow teams in terms of organizational goalie depth in the league, with just young AHL backstop Samuel Montembeault, a third-round pick in 2015, and Bowling Green State University starter Ryan Bednard, a seventh-rounder the same year. For that reason, don’t be surprised to see Montembeault squeeze in some NHL appearances this season as well. The Springfield Thunderbirds goalie struggled in his first pro season last year, but was a competent keeper in the QMJHL and, more importantly, is the closest thing that the Panthers have to an heir apparent regardless of his performance. Luongo is signed for four more years, but it is doubtful that he plays out the entirety of the contract and could retire as early as this summer, and Hutchinson is an impending unrestricted free agent. A future exists where Florida enters the off-season with just Reimer and Montembeault under contract. The youngster has to be ready to embrace his role as the organization’s only standout young goalie and the team has to prepare him for the possibility of an increased role sooner rather than later.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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Free agency opens exactly three weeks from today and teams are well on their way to evaluating both their own impending free agents and those likely to reach the open market. There are quite a few prominent players expected to be available as unrestricted free agents, while many key restricted free agents will be looking to sign new contracts with their current squads.  Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: C Jared McCann – At age 22 and heading into his fourth NHL season, McCann is still a very raw talent. The 2014 first-round pick often thinks the game faster than he plays it and is prone to mistakes. He plays little special teams role for the Panthers and struggles with many of the defensive aspects of the game at the pro level. McCann is also well below average at the face-off dot. With all that said, his offensive upside is still tremendous. McCann set a career-high with 28 points in 68 games this year and for the first time was a plus player in the league. He has great vision, a strong skating game, and a good shot. When he is on his game he can be dominant; when he is off of it, it’s easy to see why the Vancouver Canucks didn’t hesitate to trade him late into his rookie year. McCann needs to find some consistency and pace to his game and he will flourish, but that still may take some time.

So how should Florida handle that contractually? McCann will understandably want a considerable raise from his entry-level contract, but he also has a fair amount of developmental concerns that he continues to deal with. McCann very well could turn out to be a long-term star for the Panthers, but this situation seems far more likely to warrant a short-term bridge deal for “show me” money. McCann needs to display far more of his impressive offensive ability and far fewer mental lapses and disappearing acts if he wants to command greater salary and term.

LW Frank Vatrano – It’s never an easy situation to sort out when a restricted free agent is acquired mid-season. Florida could not have asked for a better start from Vatrano, who came over from the Bruins at the trade deadline after falling out of favor in Boston. After putting up just two points in 25 games with the Bruins, Vatrano posted eight points in the final 16 games with the Panthers and seemed to fit in well in the team’s top six. Vatrano showed in his first pro season that he has a ton of scoring talent: the undrafted UMass product was the goal-scoring champ of the AHL with 36 goals in 36 games, put up another eight goals in 39 games in Boston, and even recorded eight points in ten games with Team USA at the World Championships. However, Vatrano lacks much depth to his game outside of having a knack for finding the back of the net. Injury and inconsistency over the past two years with the Bruins limited his scoring chances and exposed his lack of an all-around game. When playing with Florida’s finest, his scoring ability came back and those flaws faded into the background. However, Florida is now being asked to evaluate him on just those 16 games.

Like McCann, Vatrano has not earned a long-term deal. The Panthers hope that they get the player they saw down the stretch and gave up a third-round pick to acquire, but there is also the risk he will revert to the mistake-prone, one-track-mind player he was in Boston in recent seasons. Vatrano could be an important piece for Florida moving forward but he could also have a ceiling as an elite AHLer and nothing more. Only time will tell, but because of that risk, expect Vatrano to earn a relatively cheap, one-year deal (even if it has to come through arbitration).

Other RFAs: D Alex Petrovic, D MacKenzie Weegar, D Ed Wittchow, F Curtis Valk, F Gregory Chase, D Linus Hultsrom 

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: None. Congratulations to Florida on entering free agency with literally nothing to lose. The team has five impending free agents and one, veteran winger Radim Vrbata, has already announced his retirement. The other four played little role in the successes or failures of the Panthers in 2017-18 and would be unlikely to make much of an impact if they were to be re-signed. Connor Brickley is the most notable name, as he recorded 12 points in 44 games on the team’s fourth line. However, Brickley spent no additional time in the AHL, simply watching from the press box for the much of the season. The 26-year-old forward was a 2010 second-round pick, but seems to have developed into a checking winger with limited offensive upside, the exact type of player that is easy to replace. The loss of fellow 26-year-old forwards Chase Balisy (8 games) and Alexandre Grenier (0 games) would mean even less. Third-string goalie Harri Sateri, 28, returned from Europe to play for the Panthers this year and performed well enough in nine appearances, but with two high-end veteran goalies in the mix, Florida hardly needs to stress over their AHL starter. Young Sam Montembeault will likely be just fine if Sateri is not re-signed.

UFAs: Connor Brickley, Chase Balisy, Alexandre Grenier, Harri Sateri

Projected Cap Space: The trade-off of having no unrestricted free agents to worry about is that you don’t have much salary coming off the books either. When you have your top five forwards, your top four defenseman, and two starting-caliber goalies locked up long-term, things can get expensive. The Florida Panthers got off to a slow start last season and narrowly missed the playoffs, but don’t be fooled: this is a solid team without a ton of holes and their cap situation reflects that. The cap ceiling is expected to rise this off-season to somewhere between $78-$82MM. At the midpoint of $80MM, the Cats will have around $14MM in space to work with. While that is a decent amount, it still puts the team in the bottom third of the league in terms of flexibility.

Assume that McCann gets a substantial pay increase and Vatrano and potentially one or both of Petrovic and Weegar get a fair amount in their new contracts, and the Panthers will likely be operating the free agency market with around $8-$9MM or so in space. Is that enough to add the top-six forward that they desperately want and need? Probably, but they would strapped for cap space after that. Expect Florida to be players on the trade market this summer as a result.

Deadline Primer: Florida Panthers

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Florida Panthers.

The Florida Panthers are in a difficult situation with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. Few truly consider the team to be a playoff contender, but the fact of the matter is they are not that far out from a postseason spot. Florida currently sits in 12th in the Eastern Conference and nowhere close to an Atlantic Division berth, which admittedly is an uninspiring scenario. However, trailing the New York Islanders by eight points with a whopping six games in hand, the Panthers don’t need an unrealistic stretch to catch up. Yet, what is problematic is their upcoming slate of games leading up to the trade deadline, in which they play four games, all of which are against bona fide playoff teams. An 0-4 result this week would not be much of a surprise, but could deter GM Dale Tallon from continuing to pursue a playoff berth. At the same time, a positive result against strong competition could instill hope in the team and urge them to make a deal to improve the roster. The Panthers’ deadline role is still very much up in the air.

Record

25-23-6, 4th in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

To be determined

Deadline Cap Space

$33,124,940 in deadline cap space
41/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: FLA 1st, ARI 2nd, FLA 3rd, VGK 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th
2019: FLA 1st, FLA 2nd, FLA 3rd, FLA 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers may not be buyers at the 2018 deadline, depending on their next few games, but can they really be “sellers” in the traditional sense? Florida has just two impending unrestricted free agents with any value: veteran forward Radim Vrbata and AHL import goalie Harri Sateri. Neither player will net Florida much at the deadline, as neither is more than a luxury depth addition, rather than a difference-making acquisition. The team decided to move forward with an extension for Colton Sceviour, who otherwise might have drawn ample deadline attention. What remains is a roster that offers little to contenders. However, where the Panthers could make a move is trading away players with term for other players with term, rather than participating in the rental market. While they may be happy to move the likes of Jamie McGinn or Derek MacKenzie, the Panthers will have to deal value for value if pursuing some of the bigger available targets. Defenseman Alex Petrovic, a restricted free agent this summer, appears destined to leave Florida sooner rather than later, while young forwards Denis Malgin, Maxim Mamin, and Dryden Hunt and rookie defenseman Ian McCoshen will surely be in demand.

The Panthers don’t have much in the way of prospect depth, especially on defense, so may be hesitant to deal away too many draft picks or their high-value picks, including a potential lottery pick this season. Henrik Borgstrom is a near untouchable, and could even make his NHL debut this season if the Panthers are in the hunt, whereas 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett is definitely a non-starter. Adam Mascherin or Aleksi Heponiemi won’t enjoy the same protections and could be moved in the right deal.

Players To Watch: F Radim Vrbata, G Harri Sateri, D Alex Petrovic, F Connor Brickley, F Denis Malgin

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger with term

The only reason the Panthers would move any of the aforementioned young players is to bring in a long-term asset. Tallon and company have made it known they are looking for a top-six winger to round out a really strong top-six group. With names like Mike Hoffman, Max Pacioretty, Mats Zuccarello and more reportedly available, Florida is one team willing to make a major deal in-season to acquire such a name. A young roster player, prospect, and draft pick could be enough to land one of these experienced scorers, which will serve the Panthers this season and beyond.

2) Starting defenseman with term

Interestingly, the Panthers’ main focus appears to be at forward when the team actually scores at a decent clip, but struggles to prevent goals against. Florida is very attached to Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and the recently-extended Michael Matheson, and for good reason; the trio have been excellent this season. The other half of the defense corps has been less impressive and both Petrovic and Mackenzie Weegar don’t seem to be long-term fits. The Cats could surely benefit from adding another body on the blue line that has a some years remaining on their contract. Such a deal could easily be made in free agency or on the summer trade market, but if the right player at the right price becomes available – such as an Oscar Klefbom for example – the Panthers will be interested.

3) Draft picks

At the end of the day, with their playoff chances caught in limbo and no desperation to make major deals, the most likely deadline strategy for Florida will be to simply trade away impending free agents or other expendable pieces for the best draft picks they can get. The cupboard is basically bare when it comes to defensive depth in the pipeline. A great quantity of picks in the next draft or two should help to rebuild the system on the back end as well as at other positions.

Frustration Growing For Panthers’ Alex Petrovic

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It wasn’t long ago that the Florida Panthers were working toward a long-term extension with defenseman Alex Petrovic. Coming off the best season of his young career in 2015-16, the then-24-year-old looked like he was blossoming into an elite two-way defenseman. Injuries struck last season, but Petrovic nonetheless saw increased ice time and an uptick in both offensive and defensive per-game numbers. He was rewarded by being protected in this summer’s Expansion Draft.

Yet, today the team’s position on Petrovic has changed and he’s taking notice. While Petrovic and the Panthers avoided arbitration with a one-year extension this summer, he’s had to sit back and watch fellow blue liners with less time spent in Florida sign long-term deals in Mark Pysyk and Michael Matheson. Now he’s watching the likes of Ian McCoshen and MacKenzie Weegar take his ice time away too. Petrovic has been a healthy scratch in nine of the Panthers’ 20 games this season and, as he tells the Miami Sun-Sentinal’s Matthew DeFranks, he’s sick of it.

“I think (the coaches) just don’t have the confidence in me when I’m out there to keep (making me a healthy scratch) for some reason,” Petrovic said. “I couldn’t tell you why. It is what it is. I just got to keep proving myself every day.” DeFranks describes Petrovic’s scratches as unusual, as the determined defender tends to watch games from the ground level rather than the press box and works out during period breaks. No amount of effort or showing of dedication seems to make a differences though; Petrovic hasn’t suited up since November 9th and “lines of communication between him and the coaching staff have evaporated”, DeFranks writes.

New Florida head coach Bob Boughner has done his best to de-emphasize the issues between he and his staff and Petrovic, but sooner or later the Panthers are either going to have to start playing their homegrown product or trade him away. Petrovic has shown a commitment to being in the lineup and, when active, has the numbers to prove improvement of the past two seasons. Teams will line up to get a young, physical defenseman on an upward trend offensively and defensively. GM Dale Tallon simply needs to decide whether he wants to take advantage of that value or keep that asset to himself, and he needs to decide soon.

Michael Matheson Signs Long-Term Extension With Florida

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5:53 PM: It’s a done deal. Less than an hour after Friedman’s report, TSN’s Bob McKenzie has confirmed that Matheson and the Panthers have come to terms on an eight-year, $39MM contract extension. The deal, worth $4.875MM per year, would make Matheson the fifth-highest paid player for Florida and a top-fifty paid defenseman in the league if the 2018-19 season were underway. The extension puts Matheson in the same salary zone as players like Sami Vatanen, Justin Faulk, and Morgan Rielly.

The contract breaks down as follows, per CapFriendly:

2018-19: $3MM salary, $500K signing bonus
2019-20: $3.5MM salary
2020-21: $3.5MM salary
2021-22: $5MM salary
2022-23: $4MM salary
2023-24: $4MM salary, $2.5MM signing bonus
2024-25: $4MM salary, $2.5MM signing bonus
2025-26: $4.5MM salary, $2MM signing bonus

5:15 PM: According to Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman, the Florida Panthers are working toward an eight-year extension in the neighborhood of $40MM with one of their defenseman. Keep in mind Aaron Ekblad already signed an extension last year and 2017-18 marks the first season of his eight-year, $60MM, while Keith Yandle is already on to year two of his seven-year, $44.5MM free agent contract from last summer. No, the star Florida defenseman that Friedman is reporting on is… Michael Matheson?

To be fair, Matheson did play in 81 games with the Panthers last season and led the team in even-strength ice time on ice. However, those 81 games were only good enough to be tied for second among Florida defenseman and he ranked third in overall average time on ice. Matheson scored 17 points, tied for fourth among Panthers’ blue liners, and his 69 hits was fifth among that group. Matheson led the team with 118 blocked shots, but that mark put him only 70th in the NHL. This was all while the Panthers endured a disappointing season and missed the playoffs after winning the Atlantic Division the year before. Matheson is a solid defenseman, but he didn’t really excel at anything in particular in 2016-17 and didn’t necessarily help the team win. When it comes to a long-term extension though, consistency is the key and Matheson has been this good for a long time, right? Except, last year was his rookie season. Matheson has been a name in hockey for years now – a first-round pick in 2012 and a prolific career at powerhouse Boston College – but in reality he has just 84 NHL games under his belt and is just one year removed from a season spent almost entirely in the AHL.

So, why is GM Dale Tallon reportedly throwing this kind of money at him? Why could Matheson soon be paid more and for longer than the likes of Roman Josi and John Klingberg after just one alright NHL season? It could be that Panthers, who admittedly have seen more of Matheson than anyone else, see something more from the 23-year-old. Of course, it could also be, that after trading away Jason Demers, this extension is the result of some panic setting in. Ekblad is coming off a down season with some lingering injury concerns, Yandle is on the wrong side of 30, and Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic tend to be one-dimensional players. With Ekblad, Pysyk, and Petrovic all young, right-handed rearguards, that side of the defense could be set for the long haul, even if there are some concerns. However, on the left side, Matheson and Yandle are the only two established NHLers on the roster with nearly no high-end defensive prospects in the system. It seems likely that Florida sees Matheson as a worthy gamble because he is all they have to gamble on. Is that worth upwards of $40MM? Maybe not, but at least waiting until later in the season to gauge Matheson’s development could help to alleviate some of the risk. (Update: They didn’t.)

Panthers To Re-Sign Alex Petrovic To A One Year Deal

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The Panthers have agreed to terms on a one year deal with defenseman Alex Petrovic that is believed to be worth around $1.8MM, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie (Twitter link).  Florida tendered him a $1.2MM qualifying offer to retain his rights earlier this week.

Petrovic battled injury troubles this past season, missing 33 games due to a lower body issue.  As a result, he saw action in just 49 games, scoring once while adding 13 assists and 79 penalty minutes.  He also logged a career best 18:09 of ice time per game, ranking fifth among Florida blueliners.

The 25 year old has spent his entire career with the Panthers, who made him a second round pick (36th overall) back in 2010.  He has played in 161 games with Florida over parts of five seasons, picking up 35 points (3-32-35).  He will once again be a restricted free agent next offseason.

When the signing is made official, the Panthers will have a little more than $21MM committed to five blueliners with Mark Pysyk still to re-sign as well as someone to fill the seventh defender role.  For comparison, the team spent a little over $16MM (before bonuses) at that spot in 2016-17.  The biggest reason for the jump is Aaron Ekblad moving off his $925K entry-level contract to a new $7.5MM cap hit for the next eight seasons.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Alex Petrovic only had 1 goal and 13 assists last season, but his possession stats were remarkably solid among his peers at 50.8% Corsi For. He earned $1.05 MM on his last contract, and he is due at least a slight raise. His size (6’4″) and physicality is an important asset to round out the bottom pairings of the defensive corps, even if management isn’t expecting him to light the world on fire. D Mark Pysyk, also 25 years old, has shown a bit more potential. He has less of a shutdown presence, but makes up for it by contributing to the offense on occasion. He moves the puck well with a solid if unremarkable first pass – which in today’s possession-centric NHL tends to increase value. Pysyk still hasn’t put it all together, but he’ll be a useful cog for Florida going forward. Interestingly enough, Florida’s defense is so sparse that both Pysyk and Petrovic were protected.

Other RFA’s: G MacKenzie Weegar.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is certainly on the downside of his career, but he still can produce points at a decent clip. He’s been a mainstay of the Panthers offense for the last two-and-a-half seasons. He only netted 16 goals, but added 30 assists to reach a reasonable 46 points. However, his contract was a tad overpriced for a 45 year old, at a $4 MM cap hit. Management apparently wants the veteran back on the squad next season according to a report by the Miami Herald’s George Richards. Richards states that the price would need to come down, but there is a solid chance he could get last year’s salary from another team desperate for production. If Florida truly wants to bring back the battle-tested winger (who sits 3rd in all-time goals), they will need to find room within their internal cap structure. His speed is certainly becoming an issue, and it remains to be seen how integral he is perceived internally.

F Thomas Vanek doesn’t look likely to make a return to the Sunshine State, as he is quite arguably the 4th best winger available after Alexander Radulov, Justin Williams, and Patrick Marleau. The chances of seeing Vanek seeing a contract similar to his $6.5 MM earned the last three seasons are almost completely non-existent, but he could easily fetch near $5 MM offer for multiple years from an offense-starved squad. Vanek did net 48 points last season, but he has the potential to do more. Vanek will almost surely find his kindest offers elsewhere. He only netted two goals in 20 games after being acquired from the Detroit Red Wings.

Other UFA’s: F Micheal Scarbossa, D Jakub Kindl, G Sam Brittain, F Kyle Rau, F Brody Sutter, G Adam Wilcox, F Chase Balisy, F Graham Black, F Paul Thompson, D Reece Scarlett, G Colin Stevens, F Steven Hodges, D Brent Regner.

Projected Cap Space: The Panthers do have slightly over $20 MM in cap space if they were to re-sign no one, but they are almost certain to re-sign Pysyck and Petrovic to short-term deals. Weegar has also been extended a qualifying offer, but it will likely be a two-way deal. Assuming they make a combined $4 MM, GM Dale Tallon will likely have about $16 MM in space with 16 roster players accounted for.  His main concern has to be solidifying the defense so a repeat of last year doesn’t happen. However, with Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith inexplicably shipped to Vegas, and likely one of Jagr and Vanek headed to other destinations, Tallon needs to add solid secondary scoring. It’s expected that Florida will be active on July 1st and into the Summer, especially with so many expiring organizational contracts – they only have 26 of the allotted 50 as of today. The organization has tried to revamp on the fly, but they will need a remarkably successful summer to re-coup all that is being lost especially in light of the meager talent available in the UFA pool. The biggest money constraint is whatever ownership places the internal cap at, which is unbeknownst to the league at large.

Keith Yandle, Dion Phaneuf Asked To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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With the Expansion Draft fast approaching, many players are expected to be approached themselves about waiving the No-Movement clauses attached to their contracts as their teams look to strategically navigate the strict expansion process. In his weekly “30 Thoughts” article posted this afternoon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman states that he has heard that two big-name defenseman, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle, have already been asked for such a waiver by their respective teams.

The news on Phaneuf is not unexepected; in fact many people have suspected all season long that the Ottawa Senators may ask the veteran to waive his No-Movement clause. The Senators have too much forward depth to apply the eight-skater protection scheme for the Expansion Draft and must instead use the 7-3 scheme. Thus, only three Ottawa defenseman can be protected. All-world blue liner Erik Karlsson is an obvious lock and presumably the other two spots would go to shutdown two-way man Marc Methot and young Cody Ceci if Phaneuf does choose to waive. If he doesn’t, the Sens would face a difficult choice between the two or would be forced into striking a trade over the next week. Phaneuf’s situation is interesting in that he actually outscored Ceci and Methot combined in 2016-17 and he has was more or less a complete success in his first full season in Ottawa, capped off by a strong playoff. The ideal scenario for Ottawa is to retain all three defenseman, but after the season that Phaneuf had, as well as his status as a well-known player, it could entice the Golden Knights and a waiver could mean the Senators end up losing their second-best defenseman. On the other hand, exposing Ceci, and to some extent Methot, would almost ensure losing either of them as well.

The situation with Yandle is a much bigger story. The Florida Panthers acquired Yandle’s negotiating rights from the New York Rangers around this time last year and inked him to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract. Yandle bypassed free agency and potentially more money to become the long-term partner of Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad and, at age 30, seemed poised to be a Panther for the rest of his career. Now it seems that might not be true. After just one year, Florida appears open to moving on from Yandle. The Panthers face a difficult expansion scenario on defense with, like the Senators, too many promising forwards to protect four defenseman. Even if they could, Florida would really like to protect five: Ekblad, Yandle, Jason Demers, another 2016 free agency splurge, and young play-makers Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. All five defenseman meet the number of games needed (40 this past season or 70 over the past two seasons) to qualify for the one-defenseman exposure quota, but Petrovic and Pysyk are impending restricted free agents and the other half of the exposure criteria is term remaining on a contract. Thus, only Ekblad, Yandle, or Demers could fill the quota, unless Petrovic, Pysyk, or Jakub Kindl were re-signed just to be exposed. With Ekblad untouchable and Yandle having a No-Movement clause, at this time Demers is the only choice to be the sacrificial lamb. Vegas will surely have some interest in the 28-year-old righty, whether it be to lead their own defense or to flip to another suitor. However, by asking Yandle to waive his clause, it appears that Florida is instead leaning toward keeping Demers to themselves. Why? In his first season with Florida, Yandle did play in all 82 games and recorded 41 points, a good season by any measure, but it was in fact the worst production of any full season to date for the 11-year veteran. The Panthers may be worried that, at 30-years-old, Yandle is already on the decline, while Demers and his cap hit of nearly $2MM less for four more years may be a better investment. It will be interesting to see whether Yandle indeed waives his clause or not, but make no mistake: like Demers, if Yandle is exposed he will be an easy choice for Vegas to select to either highlight their blue line or trade to a contender.

The Weakest Position In Free Agency

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One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.

So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.

Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.

This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

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