Snapshots: Gibson, Dahlen, Brink, Oilers
With the Maple Leafs being one of the teams that still need to add a starting goaltender, some have speculated that Ducks goaltender John Gibson could be a potential trade option for them. However, his agent Kurt Overhardt told Sportsnet 590’s Nick Kypreos (Twitter link) that Gibson has “no interest” in playing in Toronto and is committed to staying in Anaheim. Gibson has five years left on his deal with a $6.4MM AAV with a ten-team no-trade clause so even if the Ducks were inclined to move him this summer, the 28-year-old may be able to block a move.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- While Sharks winger Jonathan Dahlen had a decent rookie season with 12 goals and 10 assists in 61 games, Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now reports that the team is considering non-tendering him by tomorrow’s deadline. Even though he has only been in the NHL for one year, this is his fourth year on an NHL contract which gives him salary arbitration rights. While Dahlen couldn’t command a significant increase on his league-minimum salary from this past season, San Jose likely will want to keep the last few spots on their roster at low salary slots so whatever raise he could get from an arbitrator may be more than they can afford to allocate.
- Flyers winger Bobby Brink has sustained a hip injury during offseason workouts that might require surgery, Anthony SanFilippo of Crossing Broad was first to report (Twitter link). No timeline for a return is known yet but SanFilippo suggests the injury is severe enough that it could run into the start of next season; Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer adds (via Twitter) that the 21-year-old will see a specialist in a few days and that the team will have a better understanding of how much time he’ll miss by the end of the week. Brink had four assists in 10 NHL games down the stretch while logging over 15 minutes a night.
- The Oilers announced (Twitter link) that they’ve tendered qualifying offers to forwards Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto. That means that defenseman Filip Berglund and forwards Brendan Perlini and Ostap Safin will go non-tendered. Those three will become unrestricted free agents later this week. Of the unqualified players, only Perlini has NHL experience and had four goals and an assist in 23 games this past season while Berglund has already signed in Sweden.
Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning
With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks. Next up is a look at the Lightning.
Tampa Bay came close to making it three straight Stanley Cup titles before falling to Colorado in the Final last month. With the majority of their core still intact and their biggest offseason move already made when they sent Ryan McDonagh to Nashville to free up cap space, GM Julien BriseBois’ to-do list for the rest of the summer is fairly simple.
Re-Sign Or Replace Rutta
Part of the reason for the McDonagh deal was to free up cap space to re-sign two of their pending free agents. One of those is defenseman Jan Rutta. The 31-year-old has been a serviceable depth player for the Lightning over the last four seasons and played a regular role for the first time in 2021-22, suiting up in a career-best 76 games while chipping in with 18 points. He’s coming off a two-year deal with a $1.3MM cap hit and after showing he can handle a full-time spot, he should be able to beat that on the open market.
While Tampa Bay would certainly like to keep him around and have had discussions on a new deal, BriseBois also has to consider that McDonagh’s minutes need to be replaced. Rutta held his own playing 16 minutes a game but McDonagh logged 22. Can Tampa Bay fill those extra minutes internally with someone like Cal Foote or will they need someone that’s capable of taking on a bigger role? While BriseBois has stated his intention to keep and work with Philippe Myers (who came over in the McDonagh swap), it’s unlikely that they can count on much from him after the way this past season went. If Rutta and Foote can’t cover bigger roles on the third pairing to help offset the loss of McDonagh, BriseBois may have to go for a more prominent blueliner which would certainly take them out of the running for their other UFA of note.
Re-Sign Or Replace Palat
That other UFA is Ondrej Palat. The winger has been a regular in Tampa Bay’s lineup for most of the last decade, spending a lot of that time as a fixture in their top six. Along the way, he has become a consistent secondary scorer, notching at least 15 goals in seven of the last nine years and dealt with injury trouble in the two he didn’t. That type of consistency is very valuable to teams and an impressive showing in the playoffs that saw Palat finish second to only Nikita Kucherov in scoring. That certainly bolsters his value as we approach the opening of free agency on Wednesday. That’s good news for him but less so for the Lightning.
The 31-year-old is coming off a contract that saw him make an average of $5.3MM over the past five years. If he gets to the open market, a similar price at a similar term is doable. That’s one that Tampa Bay can’t afford, especially knowing they have to keep or replace Rutta as well. Even with Brent Seabrook’s LTIR space, there isn’t enough money for Palat to receive market value and still keep or re-place Rutta. A team-friendly contract is always an option – several have taken a bit less to re-sign in previous years – but with this likely being Palat’s last chance at a big contract, it would certainly be understandable if he wants to see what his other options might be.
If Palat winds up going elsewhere and they need to find a replacement, it wouldn’t be surprising if BriseBois looked for someone on a one-year deal. With several key pieces in need of new contracts soon, a short-term contract would allow give them a boost now and maintain a little bit of flexibility for the 2022-23 offseason. There will be players that don’t like what they have for long-term offers and would certainly view the Lightning as a favorable spot for a ‘pillow’ contract and going that route could give Tampa Bay a capable replacement without needing as long of a commitment.
Extension Talks
Tampa Bay has basically exclusively used short-term bridge contracts with their restricted free agents in recent years. The reason is certainly understandable as they used the lower cost of those contracts to keep their core intact and with two Stanley Cups and a Prince of Wales Trophy in the last three years, it’s hard to say they made the wrong choice. Going that way eventually has its consequences but with that type of recent success they’ve had, it couldn’t have gone much better.
But the consequences of that approach are only a year away. Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak along with centers Anthony Cirelli and Ross Colton are all about to enter the final year of their respective bridge deals. All four will have arbitration eligibility next summer. Combined, they’ll have a cap hit of $13.675MM next season. They will cost considerably more than that in 2023-24, likely surpassing the $20MM mark. That’s going to result in the departure of another core player or two no matter what and BriseBois knows that.
While the Lightning could wait to work on these next summer, that’s a lot of big-ticket deals to sign in a short period of time and with arbitration hearings occurring after the bulk of unrestricted free agents have signed, getting into July with even a couple of these still pending wouldn’t be ideal. Having the knowledge of what those players are going to cost before next June and July would be great for planning purposes while also giving those players certainly moving forward. Are they going to get all of them signed now? Probably not but the more they can finalize this summer, the easier it should be next summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Sabres Re-Sign Jacob Bryson
The Sabres have taken care of one of their pending restricted free agents, announcing (Twitter link) that they’ve re-signed defenseman Jacob Bryson to a two-year contract. The deal will carry a $1.85MM AAV with PuckPedia adding (Twitter link) that the deal will pay $1.8MM in 2022-23 and $1.9MM in 2023-24.
The 24-year-old was a fourth-round pick of Buffalo (99th overall) back in 2017 and a strong showing in the second half of the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign helped propel him into a regular role for this past season. Bryson suited up in 73 games, picking up a goal and nine assists along with 73 hits while averaging 18:20 per game, good for fourth among full-time Sabres blueliners.
This contract effectively works as a second bridge deal for Bryson. He had salary arbitration eligibility this summer but the two-year term will still have him RFA-eligible with arbitration rights at its conclusion and a required qualifier of $1.9MM. Now that Bryson has established himself as an NHL regular, this pact will give him an opportunity to play his way into a bigger role; with Colin Miller expected to depart in free agency this summer, Bryson could be in line for a bit more playing time next season although 2021 top pick Owen Power will also be in the mix on the back end.
With this contract done, winger Victor Olofsson is the only full-time Sabre that’s still eligible for restricted free agency. He’s owed a $3.25MM qualifying offer by Monday’s tender deadline and the 26-year-old is also arbitration-eligible. Accordingly, GM Kevyn Adams will be looking to get that deal in place as soon as possible to try to avoid giving Olofsson a chance to file for a hearing.
Colorado Avalanche Extend Alexandar Georgiev, Jacob MacDonald
The Colorado Avalanche announced via Twitter that they have extended goaltender Alexandar Georgiev for three years. TSN’s Chris Johnston reports that the deal is expected to carry a $3.4MM AAV and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports the salary breakdown to be $3.6MM in year one, $3.7MM in year two, and $2.9MM in year three. Colorado had acquired the goaltender on Thursday in exchange for a 2022 third-round pick, a 2022 fifth-round pick, and a 2023 third-round pick. The trade, and now this extension, seems to put a close to Darcy Kuemper‘s time in Colorado, as he is set to hit the free agent market on Wednesday.
Just after the Georgiev announcement, the team also announced via Twitter and their website that they have extended defenseman Jacob MacDonald for two years. The news was first broke by The Athletic’s Peter Baugh. MacDonald’s contract is two-way, with a $450K salary in the minors and carries a cap hit of $762.5K each season (link).
Georgiev, 26, was an arbitration-eligible RFA who was due a $2.65MM qualifying offer, one the Rangers likely couldn’t afford, especially as a backup to Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin. With speculation that the team could let Georgiev walk in free agency, the team was able to secure a return by sending him to Colorado for the above draft picks. Colorado appeared set to try and work out an extension with Kuemper, the incumbent goaltender, but with several other UFAs on the docket and a goalie market with seemingly much higher demand than supply, Georgiev became the more attractive option.
The reigning Stanley Cup Champion Avalanche now boast a duo of Georgiev and Pavel Francouz in net, which will cost a combined $5.4MM over each of the next two seasons before Francouz becomes a UFA after 2023-24. The cost for both goaltenders is surely attractive for Colorado, given it is less than some teams pay for just their starter, however it doesn’t come without some questions as to performance. In 33 games last season, Georgiev played to just an .898 save-percentage, the worst mark of his career, and a 2.92 goals-against average. Francouz played to a far better .916 save-percentage and 2.55 goals-against average in 21 regular season games, as well as a .906 save-percentage and 2.81 goals-against average in seven playoff games, filling in for an injured Kuemper. Though Francouz’s numbers are relatively good, the Avalanche have made clear his role is as the backup. This may not necessarily hold true over the remainder of his contract, and could formulate strong competition between the two for playing time.
Switching gears and turning back to MacDonald, the 29-year-old is a veteran of 43 NHL games, including eight in 2021-22 for the Avalanche, his most significant time however, coming in 2020-21, where he played in 33 games. Having just two goals and eight assists in his NHL career to date, the defenseman has been a prolific point-producer at the AHL level, hitting the 40-point mark three times, including one 55 point season. This season, MacDonald tallied 10 goals and 15 assists in a mere 33 AHL games. The Cornell University alum could be a candidate to push for more playing time with the Avalanche this year, having shown his ability to play at the NHL level, his affordability, and with questions regarding other Avalanche defensemen, including pending UFAs Josh Manson, Jack Johnson, and Ryan Murray, as well as Samuel Girard, who broke his sternum in Colorado’s second-round series against the St. Louis Blues.
Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames
Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Calgary Flames.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Matthew Tkachuk – While the contract negotiations between the Flames and Gaudreau have soaked up most of the headlines, the team’s upcoming negotiations with Matthew Tkachuk are of equal (if not greater) importance. Tkachuk is a 24-year-old player coming off a 104-point season. He’s a big, mean power forward who can score at an elite level. Those players are tough to find and Tkachuk is a unique player when you look at the landscape of superstar wingers across the NHL. If the Flames are serious about wanting to compete for many years moving forward, retaining Tkachuk on a long-term contract is something they simply have to do. But it’s not entirely up to them. Tkachuk is getting precariously close to hitting unrestricted free agency, and he could simply walk himself there by taking his $9MM qualifying offer and then hitting the market next summer. With a $9MM qualifying offer in his hands, that could potentially be seen as the floor for any long-term extension the Flames offer Tkachuk. With a trip to unrestricted free agency only a year away, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tkachuk hit double digits on the average annual value of a long-term deal in Calgary.
F Andrew Mangiapane – After two consecutive seasons as a full-time NHL-er, it looked as though Mangiapane’s long-term NHL projection was quite clear. He had scored 32 points in both years, and his goal totals were consistent as well, with 17 in 2020-21 and 18 in 2021-22. Mangiapane looked like a solid, high-energy middle-six winger with some scoring touch. This year, though, Mangiapane reached new heights in offensive production, finishing the year with 35 goals and 55 points. Mangiapane also offers a two-way game as well, and he averaged 1:17 time-on-ice per game on the Flames’ penalty kill, a kill that ranked sixth in the NHL. While some might point to Mangiapane’s 18.9% shooting percentage as an indication that his goal-scoring was a fluke, Mangiapane actually had a higher shooting percentage in 2020-21 and has been able to sustain a shooting percentage above 15% in each of his three seasons as a productive NHL regular. The larger concern with Mangiapane’s goal-scoring might be how streaky it was, as Mangiapane burst out the gates at the start of the regular season only to slow down as the year wore on. Still, even with that concern, Mangiapane has lined himself up for a nice contract extension. Whether that extension comes from the Flames remains to be seen, as his 35-goal performance may have priced him out of a Flames team that’s currently attempting to sign two other wingers to mega-extensions in Tkachuk and Gaudreau.
D Oliver Kylington – There was a time when Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington was seen as a bit of a “bust.” The Stockholm native had struggled to make any mark at the NHL level in his limited action in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and frequently played with the kind of reckless abandon that did not endear himself to his coaches. Under Darryl Sutter, though, Kylington’s game has become more polished, and Kylington has learned how to better leverage his tools to have success in an NHL that harshly punishes defensive mistakes. He finished with 31 points in 73 games in 2021-22 and was a top-four defenseman on a strong Flames team, averaging over 18 minutes of ice time per game. Kylington’s transitional game fits what’s expected of modern NHL defensemen, and his level of offensive production despite ranking outside the top ten among Flames skaters in power-play time-on-ice is impressive. A short-term deal could be wise if the Flames wish to keep his price tag low to maximize their current competitive window, although a long-term deal could be better if the Flames believe Kylington will continue his upward trajectory.
Other RFA’s: F Matthew Phillips, F Martin Pospisil, F Adam Ruzicka, F Eetu Tuulola, D Johannes Kinnvall, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Johnny Gaudreau – The Flames believe they can compete for a Stanley Cup next year and for many years after that. It’s hard to disagree with their assessment when one considers their incredibly successful regular season, but that forecast may need to change depending on where Johnny Gaudreau is playing next season. Gaudreau had the best season of his career in 2021-22, scoring 40 goals and 115 points en route to the second fourth-place Hart Trophy finish of his career. Gaudreau proved that he was among the league’s best play-driving wingers and helped dissuade those who were down on his game after a difficult prior two seasons. Gaudreau also had a productive playoff run, scoring 14 points in 12 games, including a Game Seven overtime winner, helping counter critics who claimed Gaudreau disappeared when it mattered most. GM Brad Treliving has said he would move “heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and it’s easy to see why. With his level of production, Gaudreau has every right to expect a double-digit AAV from any interested suitors, and while a contract at that value may not be the best in its final few years, that’s simply the cost of doing business in free agency and the reality is Gaudreau is worth every penny at this moment.
D Nikita Zadorov – Nikita Zadorov came to Calgary without much fanfare. The Flames were his third team in as many years, and the throwback, extremely physical style of game he plays is one that polarizes many fans. What didn’t polarize fans as much, though, was the success he had on the Flames’ third pairing next to fellow stay-at-home defenseman Erik Gudbranson. The six-foot-six Moscow native gave out some major hits and helped make the team’s third pairing one to be feared. While Zadorov plays a rugged, physical style, his game is not notably effective defensively and he was not a major factor on the Flames’ penalty kill. That’s a curious bit of information, as one would expect a defenseman with Zadorov’s profile to be a defensive specialist and penalty kill anchor. But that simply wasn’t the role Zadorov played, though, and that has to factor into his market value. If he’s a hit-first player but not a shutdown player, that could seriously cut into how he’s valued by teams. Zadorov earned $3.75MM in 2021-22 and could fetch a raise on the open market if a team does believe he can be a shutdown defenseman, not just a human wrecking ball.
Other UFA’s: F Calle Jarnkrok, F Ryan Carpenter, F Trevor Lewis, F Brett Ritchie, D Michael Stone, D Erik Gudbranson, F Byron Froese, F Glenn Gawdin, F Justin Kirkland, F Luke Philp, D Nick DeSimone, D Kevin Gravel, D Andy Welinski
Projected Cap Space
This is where things get a bit dicey for Calgary. The team is projected to have nearly $27MM in cap space, but that gets cut down quickly if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both sign extensions worth $9MM or more. The team also has Kylington and Mangiapane’s extensions to consider, as well as an Elias Lindholm extension that will need to get done after the next two seasons. The point being made here is that the Flames have an abundance of talented players, and will need to effectively manage their cap in order to retain them all and preserve the necessary room to acquire outside improvements to their roster. Sean Monahan‘s $6.375MM cap hit looms on long-term injured reserve, and the team could look to send Monahan to another team so they’re able to accumulate cap space over the course of next season. It’ll be a tricky few months for the Flames, but if Treliving can play his cards correctly he’ll have laid the foundation for a contender in Calgary for years to come.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Afternoon Notes: Kubalik, Bailey, Burakovsky, Murray
Earlier this week, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported that the Chicago Blackhawks were not expected to extend a qualifying offer to forward Dylan Strome, and now it appears forward Dominik Kubalik will not be receiving one either, says The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus. Failing to qualify Kubalik is not much of a surprise given the choice not to keep Strome around either, and Chicago’s plan to conduct a full-scale rebuild. Had Chicago wanted to qualify Kubalik, the offer would have had to be for $4MM, relatively high as compared to the 32 points of production Kubalik offered in 78 games this season.
Choosing not to qualify Kubalik doesn’t necessarily foreclose the possibility of a return to the Blackhawks, as the move might be to avoid Kubalik accepting the offer or filing for arbitration, but it would make a reunion highly unlikely nonetheless. Although far from a bright side, this doesn’t signify a major blow to Kubalik’s future success, the Czech winger still capable of producing offense, even tallying as much as 30 goals as a rookie in 2019-20, in just 68 games. With a somewhat significant decline from his previous production in 2021-22, Kubalik may not find another deal at the qualifying offer he was expecting, but should find himself with interest from teams that are on a budget but looking to add a spark on offense.
- From a player who seems on his way to a new team to a player who appears to be staying with his one and only team, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports that the New York Islanders are not only not shopping forward Josh Bailey, but he may not be available altogether. The veteran winger has been a staple in the Islanders’ lineup for 14 years and has two more years at $5MM left on his contract. With the team needing to clear some cap space if they want to add offense and re-sign RFA defensemen Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov, Bailey had been rumored to be an expendable piece with a relatively significant cap hit the team could cut out.
- Peter Baugh, who covers the Colorado Avalanche for The Athletic, says that talks between the Avalanche and winger Andre Burakovsky have been quiet, however Burakovsky does still hope to remain in Colorado. With the veteran a pending UFA, and the market opening up on Wednesday afternoon, if Colorado wants to keep him around, the talks will likely have to intensify shortly to get something done. The forward has seen his production take a massive step forward since being traded to Colorado from the Washington Capitals in the summer of 2019, hitting a career-high 61 points in 80 games this season. In addition to Colorado’s need to balance the salary cap along with other pending UFAs in Nazem Kadri and Valeri Nichushkin, Burakovsky also brings with him a streaky nature, leaving his breakout and free agency with question marks surrounding it.
- According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, talks between the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs on goaltender Matt Murray have intensified, though nothing is done just yet. Murray has been one of the most frequently discussed names of the young offseason, with a deal to the Buffalo Sabres seeming to materialize before Murray killed it via his no-trade clause. The goaltender has two more years carrying a $6.25MM cap hit left on his contract, and any trade would likely require Ottawa to retain some salary while also potentially including an asset as well.
Los Angeles Kings Extend Adrian Kempe
July 10th: The deal is now official. The Kings have announced Kempe’s four-year, $5.5MM AAV contract extension.
July 8th 4:25 PM: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the deal has a $5.5MM average annual value. The contract carries the following year-by-year structure:
- 2022-23 $5.25M
- 2023-24 $5.75M
- 2024-25 $5.5M
- 2025-26 $5.5M
The deal also carries a modified ten-team no-trade clause for the final two years of the contract. PuckPedia was on the details of the contract first.
July 8th 3:44 PM: The NHL Draft wasn’t the only business the Los Angeles Kings’ front office took care of in Montreal. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, the Kings have reached a deal with restricted free agent forward Adrian Kempe on a four-year extension. The official announcement of the deal is expected to come on Saturday. Word has not yet come in on the financial parameters of the deal outside of the term that LeBrun reported.
Kempe, 25, was set to become an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent next Wednesday. He’s coming off a breakout season, a year where the flew past his prior career highs in both goal scoring and overall point production. Kempe led the Kings with 35 goals, more than double his previous career-high of 16, a high he set all the way back in the 2017-18 season.
Kempe became one of the most frequently relied-upon wingers on Los Angeles’ roster, averaging nearly three minutes of ice time per game on the powerplay and nearly a minute and a half of ice time short-handed. His short-handed ice time ranked fourth on the Kings, and with Alex Iafallo also on the roster, the Kings have two wingers who bring speed, (varying degrees of) goal-scoring, and reliable two-way play to their lineup.
The Kings have already been active in improving their team this offseason, adding a dynamic, point-per-game winger to their top-six in Kevin Fiala. After an encouraging run to the playoffs in coach Todd McLellan’s third season in Los Angeles, it’s clear that the Kings’ front office wants to move their organization out of their rebuild and into the next phase of their competitive cycle. Getting Kempe back on a deal that buys two of his unrestricted free agent years, as they’ve reportedly done, is one important step in that process.
Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes
Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Martin Necas –Just one year ago, Necas looked like he would soon become one of the Hurricanes’ most important forwards. While that still might get there, his 2021-22 season was a step back. After scoring at a 63-point pace last season, many were expecting Necas to fulfill the promise that got him drafted twelfth-overall at the 2017 draft and become a true top-six forward. But for a variety of reasons, that didn’t happen in 2021-22, and Necas had a fine season, with 40 points in 72 games, but certainly not the clear-cut step forward many were expecting. The emergence of Seth Jarvis cut into Necas’ offensive opportunities, and Necas’ inconsistent nightly effort left many fans frustrated. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reported that the Hurricanes may be tempted to trade Necas if they can get an offer for a young defenseman in return, although he also reported that the team is not actively looking to trade him, As a restricted free agent, Necas is likely in bridge deal territory and could get a deal around $3MM-$4MM, if not a bit more. While the Hurricanes did pull the trigger on a long-term extension for Jesperi Kotkaniemi before he had even finished his first season with the team, it doesn’t seem like they’ll go the same route with Necas.
D Ethan Bear – Bear is in a similar situation to Necas. We previously covered how Bear has been given permission from the Hurricanes to speak to other teams about other opportunities, and he too could be on the move this offseason, even though the Hurricanes want to re-sign him. Bear, 25, has seen his usage decline since he averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice time per night as a rookie with the Edmonton Oilers, and he was a healthy scratch for the entirety of the Hurricanes’ run to the second round of the playoffs this year. Bear wants to play, as any player does, and now has the opportunity to look for a team more willing to give him a consistent nightly role. A short-term bridge around his current $2MM cap hit, with maybe a small raise, makes the most sense here.
Other RFA’s: F Steven Lorentz, F David Cotton, F Stelio Mattheos, D Joey Keane, D Maxime Lajoie, D Tarmo Reunanen, D Jesper Sellgren, G Jack LaFontaine, G Beck Warm
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Vincent Trocheck – In April, we focused on Trocheck’s upcoming free agency situation in more depth. Not much has changed since then, though his productive playoff run (10 points in 14 games) should help his previously thin playoff resume. Trocheck is an established two-way pivot who is generally regarded as a solid second-line center. He can typically be relied on to produce around 50 points of offense, with the potential to hit even higher numbers in the right circumstances, as he did in 2020-21 with 43 points in 47 games and in 2017-18 when he had a career-high 75 points. Trocheck ranked third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded average time-on-ice per game with 1:46 and helped the Hurricanes to a top-ranked penalty kill finish in 2021-22 with an 88% success rate and a third-place finish in 2020-21 with an 85.2% success rate. Trocheck is also elite at the dot, and he won 54.6% of his faceoffs this past season. Trocheck’s defensive game earned him a third-place Selke Trophy vote, and he’s the sort of productive center who plays a 200-foot game that NHL GM’s are tripping over each other to acquire. Trocheck could earn a major contract this summer, with the potential to earn a similar deal to the seven-year, $7.14MM AAV deal Kevin Hayes got from the Philadelphia Flyers if there is a particularly interested suitor.
F Nino Niederreiter – In June, we took a look at Nino Niederreiter’s upcoming free agency in more depth. Niederreiter, 29, is a productive winger who can score around 20 goals and 50 points in most years, although he has had some less productive seasons. Niederreiter is a winger who belongs on an offensive line and can help support other skilled players in making and finishing plays. He’s not going to drive his own line or overwhelm anyone with his speed, skills, or physicality, but he’s the sort of productive offensive winger that can reliably staff any second line in the NHL. it’s unlikely that Niederreiter gets a raise from the $5.25MM he earned this season, and it’s actually far more likely that his next contract comes in below that number when you consider the flat-cap world NHL clubs are operating in.
F Max Domi – Domi has been a bit of an enigma so far in his NHL career, as he’s had years where he’s a highly productive fan-favorite top-six staple, and he’s also had seasons where he’s underperformed, butted heads with coaches, and struggled to make a positive impact on the ice. The true reality of Domi’s game and the value he brings to an NHL team likely lies somewhere in the middle, and his time in Carolina provides a blueprint of what teams can reasonably expect from Domi moving forward. The 27-year-old scored seven points in 19 regular-season games and six points in 14 playoff games, and became the Hurricanes’ Game Seven hero with two important goals in the team’s victory over the Boston Bruins. Domi brings real energy and offensive skill to a lineup, but he struggles to read the ice and effectively utilize his teammates. So while his offensive talent is undeniable (his 72 points on an otherwise offensively mediocre Montreal Canadiens team is proof of that) his vision is the largest factor that keeps him from being a consistent top-six force. If a team is reasonable with its expectations, they could get a solid middle-six scoring winger at a price that’s not likely going to be exorbitant.
Other UFA’s: F Derek Stepan, D Ian Cole, D Brendan Smith, F Josh Leivo, F Sam Miletic, F Stefan Noesen, F Andrew Poturalski, F Spencer Smallman, F C.J. Smith, D Josh Jacobs, G Alex Lyon
Projected Cap Space
As one would expect for a team with multiple established NHL-ers whose contracts have expired, the Hurricanes are not without room to maneuver under the salary cap this summer. CapFriendly projects them to have over $19MM in space to work with, although that projection is with defenseman Jake Gardiner still placed on long-term injured reserve. Gardiner is now healthy, ineligible for LTIR, and ready to play. If Carolina was the absolute most possible cap space to work with for Wednesday, they’ll have to move Gardiner and his $4.05MM cap hit.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
West Notes: Puljujarvi, Gaudreau, Nichushkin
The Edmonton Oilers have cap space in hand and, after a strong run to the Western Conference Final, a clear desire to add difference-making players to their roster. One player they’re likely to subtract from their lineup is forward Jesse Puljujarvi. Puljujarvi, 24, will become an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent on Wednesday and is expected by many to be moved before next season. After a promising season in Edmonton, the Oilers faithful could not be faulted for expecting to return at least something of reasonable quality as part of the compensation package in any summer Puljujarvi trade. It seems, though, that that’s unlikely to happen. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Oilers are “frustrated” by “how little interest there is” in Puljujarvi.
Dreger clarifies that there are about three or four teams that are “nibbling” at the prospect of acquiring Puljujarvi and that the Oilers front office is bracing for a reality where they are forced to “sell low” on Puljujarvi and accept a return they deem to be sub-par. Puljujarvi, the fourth overall pick at the 2016 draft, scored 14 goals and 36 points in 65 games in 2021-22, which is a career-high in points production, although his playoff scoring (just three points in 16 games) left much to be desired. There is a general belief that Puljujarvi could “pop” on another team and score with a level of consistency and frequency he never could in Edmonton, and the Oilers may be left with a sort of trade return that is not commensurate with the value they believe Puljujarvi holds.
Now, for some other notes regarding the league’s Western Conference teams:
- With Filip Forsberg now off the market, Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau has solidified his spot as the undisputed top free agent scorer set to be available on next week’s open market. The Calgary Flames, though, are hoping his contract situation ends in a similar way to Forsberg’s. Flames GM Brad Treliving, as relayed by TSN’s Salim Valji, remains “optimistic” about the prospect of re-signing Gaudreau, and part of the reason for that optimism has been because he and Gaudreau’s agent, Lewis Gross, have been “genuinely working towards a deal.” There has long been speculation on a Gaudreau return to his native East Coast, perhaps to the Philadelphia Flyers or New Jersey Devils, but it seems as though the Flames are fully intent on keeping that from happening and have every confidence that they’ll be successful.
- With a spectacular performance in the playoffs, capped off by an impactful Stanley Cup Final series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, winger Valeri Nichushkin could enter the market next week on extremely strong ground. The Colorado Avalanche and GM Joe Sakic are going to try to keep that from happening. The team bid farewell to goalie Darcy Kuemper, helping them save cap space, and will likely use a solid chunk of that space in their attempt to retain Nichushkin. ESPN’s Kevin Weekes pegs a Nichushkin extension in Colorado at the $5MM-$6MM average annual value, which seems more than reasonable for a strong defensive player who scored 52 points in 62 games. It’s still an open question as to whether the Avalanche will commit to the full eight-year term they are permitted to offer Nichushkin, but their ability to offer one more year than any teams on the open market could be a factor in deciding if Nichushkin stays in Colorado. If he doesn’t, he can expect a multitude of suitors once the market opens.
Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks
Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Chicago Blackhawks
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Dylan Strome – On the day of the draft, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported that the Blackhawks were not expected to extend Strome a qualifying offer. Strome is eligible for a qualifying offer worth $3.6MM, and it looks like the rebuilding Blackhawks aren’t interested in retaining Strome at that number. But that doesn’t mean other teams won’t be interested in Strome on the open market. While Strome hasn’t lived up to the hype he once held as the third overall pick at the 2015 draft, it would be misleading to say he’s been anything other than a reasonably productive NHL player since arriving in Chicago. He had 22 goals and 48 points this season, and in only one of his four seasons as Blackhawk Strome has scored under a 50-point pace. Sure, Strome has had the benefit of sometimes sharing the ice with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, and his skating, while improved, is still holding back his game. But even with those caveats, Strome’s production combined with his age (he will be 25 for most of next season) makes him an extremely intriguing project signing for a team that wants a scoring center at a lower price than the more established options. Perhaps Strome could look to sign with a team that has a play-driving, superstar winger in order to have a mid-twenties career renaissance similar to the one his brother Ryan Strome had with the New York Rangers.
F Dominik Kubalik – Another non-tender candidate, Kubalik has regressed since his extremely impressive rookie season and endured a difficult 2021-22 campaign. He had 15 goals and 32 points this past season, a decline from the 25-goal, 56-point pace he played at last season, and the 30-goal, 46-point showing he produced as a rookie. Kubalik is due a $4MM qualifying offer, and it seems as though GM Kyle Davidson does not believe extending him that offer to retain his rights is in the best interest of the rebuilding Blackhawks. Like Strome, Kubalik is an interesting UFA option for many teams. He’s just two seasons removed from when he made the NHL’s All-Rookie team and was a Calder Trophy Finalist, and only one season removed from a healthy 25-goal, 50+ point offensive pace. Teams are always looking for big wingers who can score, and that’s exactly what Kubalik is. If teams can look past Kubalik’s difficult 2021-22, they could get the kind of valuable, relatively young player that is rarely made available on the open market.
D Caleb Jones – Unlike the other two RFA’s listed here, Jones, the brother of Seth Jones, is expected to re-sign with the Blackhawks this offseason, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic. Jones played a third-pairing role in Chicago to moderate success, ranking fifth among regular Blackhawks defensemen in time on ice per game. Jones was not a factor on either of the Blackhawks’ special teams units, but he does have a history as a regular penalty kill contributor from his time in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. Jones isn’t the caliber of defenseman his brother is but expecting him to fit in as a long-term third-pairing defenseman wouldn’t be unreasonable. A short-term deal around $1MM-$2MM makes the most sense here, although the Blackhawks could opt to try to lock him up long-term if they are believers in his NHL future.
Other RFA’s: F Philipp Kurashev, F Andrei Altybarmakyan, F Cameron Morrison, D Wyatt Kalynuk, G Cale Morris
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Calvin de Haan – The biggest-name veteran player the Blackhawks have to offer to the UFA market is defenseman Calvin de Haan. He was often mentioned in trade rumors but did not ultimately get moved at the 2022 deadline. De Haan, 31, is a veteran of 520 NHL games and has battled injuries throughout his NHL career. De Haan has only played in a full season once, and missed 13 games due to injuries this year. De Haan, the 12th overall pick at the 2009 NHL Draft, has had a successful NHL career thanks to his steady defensive play. De Haan’s offense is not what it used to be. While his career-high in points is a healthy 25, his eight points in 69 games this year are a sobering reminder of the declined state of his offensive tools. Nonetheless, De Haan still enters the market on stable ground: he’s an experienced, reliable defenseman who can help a second-unit penalty kill and fit in as a team’s fourth or fifth defenseman. While his next contract may come in lower than the $4.55MM he earned on his last deal, and the shoulder injuries he sustained may give some teams pause, he should still have a strong group of suitors once he hits the market next week.
G Kevin Lankinen – In some ways, Lankinen is in a similar situation to Kubalik. Like Kubalik, Lankinen was an out-of-nowhere import signing who, after a successful pro career in Europe, got into the rebuilding Blackhawks’ lineup and saw immediate success. Lankinen’s first 10 NHL starts were extremely promising: he posted a .920 save percentage or higher in seven of ten starts and frequently had to bail out a Chicago team that wasn’t putting forth a structured defensive effort to protect him. He effectively had to fend for himself early in his NHL career, and endeared himself to many Blackhawks fans in the process. The end of Lankinen’s rookie season was a struggle, and his numbers dipped overall, but his season-ending 17-14-5 record and .909 save percentage was indicative of the promise he flashed as a rookie. Lankinen even received seven Calder votes for his season and looked like he could possibly be the Blackhawks’ goalie of the future. 2021-22 didn’t go as planned, though, and Lankinen struggled as the Blackhawks plunged to the bottom of the NHL’s standings. The defensive performances in front of him didn’t help matters, but the reality was the nights that Lankinen would save the Blackhawks, which were all so common in his rookie year, were becoming few and far between. The Blackhawks recently acquired Petr Mrazek, but that shouldn’t block a return for Lankinen if that’s the route Davidson wants to pursue. If he hits the open market, Lankinen will be, like Strome and Kubalik, one of the more interesting (and risky) options on the open market.
Other UFA’s: D Erik Gustafsson, G Collin Delia, F Kurtis Gabriel
Projected Cap Space
For all the issues on the Blackhawks’ roster, the one advantage they do hold over most NHL clubs is that they have a wealth of cap space to work with. CapFriendly projects them to have $15MM of space to work with this offseason, and with the team expected to not qualify its most notable RFA’s, Davidson will have a blank canvas to work on in this summer’s market. Even with the $5.5MM cap recapture penalty incurred by Edmonton Oilers defenseman Duncan Keith‘s retirement, they’ll be able to continue taking on other teams’ unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets, as they did with Mrazek.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.