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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders 23.09% (263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 18.88% (215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.66% (110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 8.96% (102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.73% (88 votes)
Calgary Flames 6.41% (73 votes)
New Jersey Devils 5.62% (64 votes)
New York Rangers 4.39% (50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 3.69% (42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 3.69% (42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 2.19% (25 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.58% (18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 1.49% (17 votes)
Nashville Predators 1.23% (14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.79% (9 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.61% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139

[mobile users click here to vote]

Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

Matt Murray, Erik Brannstrom Set To Return

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  • The Senators will welcome back defenseman Erik Brannstrom for tomorrow’s game against Toronto, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch (Twitter link). He suffered an undisclosed injury last week that has caused him to miss the last four games.  As for starting goaltender Matt Murray, he has recovered from his neck strain and will play in one of the two games in their back-to-back stretch.

Latest On The Hurricanes-Senators Trade

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Yesterday’s surprise trade that saw three impending free agents swapped, with Ryan Dzingel returning to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for role players Cedric Paquette and Alex Galchenyuk moving to the Carolina Hurricanes, provided more questions than answers. Speaking on Sportsnet’s broadcast of Hockey Night In Canada on Saturday, Chris Johnston tried to provide some explanation or at least some projection on what it could all mean. Johnston clarifies that the centerpiece of the deal is really Paquette, who is expected to stabilize the Hurricanes’ fourth line over the remainder of the season and very likely into the playoffs. As for Dzingel and Galchenyuk, he warned that they should not “get comfortable”. Not only are both, as well as Paquette, very likely heading to the open market this summer, but Dzingel and Galchenyuk could be on the move again before the end of the season.

Dzingel specifically is somewhat of a suspect acquisition for the Senators. Previously a two-time 20-goal and 40-point player for Ottawa, Dzingel’s stops in Columbus and Carolina since departing the Senators have been less than inspiring. In his final season with the Senators, Dzingel was scoring at a 63-point full season pace; in his 96 games since, Dzingel is scoring at a 38-point pace. Perhaps Senators GM Pierre Dorion feels that a return to Ottawa and to a top-six role for Dzingel can reignite his offensive prowess. The team needs scoring and Dzingel could be the solution. However, if Dzingel continues to struggle or, alternatively, if he succeeds but is unwilling to re-sign in Ottawa, the rebuilding Senators have no use for his expiring contract. They would would very likely put him back on the trade block and hope that they could recoup the trade capital they might have received for renting out Paquette and Galchenyuk. Considering he must quarantine for two weeks before joining the Senators in this shortened NHL season, Dorion and company will not have much time to make a determination on Dzingel, but still felt the calculated risk was worth the potential long-term payoff.

  • As for Galchenyuk, Johnston’s premonition that he could be on the move again could prove true far sooner than he likely expected. With Galchenyuk being placed on waivers today by Carolina, it could be that by tomorrow afternoon he has a new team for the second time in 48 hours. Of course, Galchenyuk is no stranger to frequent movement. After six seasons with the Montreal Canadiens to begin his career, he is now on his sixth team in four year and has been traded in-season in back-to-back years. Once a rising star in Montreal, Galchenyuk has been reduced to a one-dimensional hired gun goal-scorer due to his defensive struggles and many inconsistencies. Galchenyuk still has value as a substitute in case of a top-nine injury, but has not proven over the last year that he is worthy of being handed an everyday role. As a result, it is no surprise that a cap-strapped team like the Hurricanes would rather move Galchenyuk to the taxi squad, thereby burying his entire $1.05MM salary, and simply use him as depth down the stretch. There may very well be a team out there however who also likes the 27-year-old forward for that role and has the roster flexibility to claim him and keep him active. Even if he does clear waivers, that would only improve his value due to the added transactional flexibility and if the Hurricanes don’t like what they see, they could still flip him before the deadline.
  • Galchenyuk’s placement on waivers has also changed the travel plans for Carolina’s latest acquisitions. Sportsnet’s John Shannon reported on Saturday that Paquette and Galchenyuk planned to skip the required quarantine that accompanies commercial air travel by instead joining the Senators on their team flight to Toronto today and then making the 13-hour drive to Raleigh, potentially even in time for the Hurricanes’ Monday night home game. The new plan, as revealed by Carolina beat writer Michael Smith, is for Paquette to make the solo trek from Ottawa to Raleigh today, a similar 13-hour drive, again with the expectation that he will be available on Monday. Galchenyuk meanwhile will remain in Ottawa until waivers clear tomorrow. Not only did he not want to make the long trip only to be claimed by a different team, but he also did not want to leave the country in case he was claimed by another Canadian club. If Galchenyuk clears waivers and is assigned to the taxi squad, he will presumably then make the drive to Raleigh himself and would be available for the ’Canes as early as Wednesday.

Senators Acquire Ryan Dzingel From Hurricanes

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Ryan Dzingel is on his way back to Ottawa as the Senators have acquired the winger from Carolina in exchange for center Cedric Paquette and winger Alex Galchenyuk.  Both teams have announced the deal which carries no salary cap retention on any of the players.

Dzingel was a bit part of Ottawa’s lineup just a few years ago, notching over 20 goals in both 2017-18 and 2018-19.  However, the 28-year-old has struggled considerably since then between his stints in Columbus as a trade deadline acquisition and Carolina, who signed him back in 2019.  This season, Dzingel has two goals and two assists in 11 games while averaging just 13:12 per night, his lowest ATOI since his rookie season.  He carries a $3.75MM cap hit this season with a $3.5MM salary.

Paquette was brought in as part of a cap-clearing move from Tampa Bay that also saw the Sens add defenseman Braydon Coburn and a second-round pick for injured winger Marian Gaborik and goalie Anders Nilsson who both went straight to LTIR.  While he was an effective fourth liner with the Lightning, that hasn’t been the case in Ottawa and the 27-year-old has been a frequent healthy scratch while barely averaging 10 minutes a game when he was in the lineup.  Paquette has a salary and AAV of $1.65MM.

As for Galchenyuk, it has not been a fun season.  The 27-year-old seemed like a low-risk, medium-reward acquisition in free agency when he signed a one-year, $1.05MM deal but he also has been a frequent scratch with Ottawa and has just one goal in eight games this season.  He’s still only two seasons removed from a 41-point season in Arizona (and three years removed from a 51-point campaign with Montreal) but he struggled considerably last season and is off to a worse start this year.  He’s now joining his fifth different team in less than three years.

It’s a low-risk deal for both teams as all three players are set to be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  If they rebound with their new teams, it’ll work out well and if they don’t, none were particularly irreplaceable where they were.  From Ottawa’s standpoint, they get a player who was effective for them not that long ago and free up a roster spot for another young player while for Carolina, they save some money and add a capable energy player in Paquette and an offensive wild card in Galchenyuk who they hope will be able to fill the role they envisioned for Dzingel, just at a lower price tag.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first reported that Dzingel was on his way to Ottawa with Paquette in the deal while TSN’s Frank Seravalli was the first to report Galchenyuk’s inclusion in the swap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Derek Stepan Addresses Trade Speculation

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One player whose name has been in the rumor mill as of late is Senators center Derek Stepan amidst reports that Ottawa is trying to move him.  However, GM Pierre Dorion was quick to clarify on TSN 1200 (audio link) that the veteran hasn’t asked for a deal:

No, he hasn’t indicated anything along that line to us.  We can tell with our conversations that I’ve had with him that I think it’s only human that … when you only see your newborn for a day or two that it can be difficult on any type of human being.

Meanwhile, Stepan himself was recently asked about his situation and while he acknowledged to reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that the prospect of being away from his family for the entire season is far from ideal, he was looking forward to this opportunity with the Sens:

I’m doing to the best I can to stay focused on Ottawa Senators’ hockey. That’s really all I can control right now is focusing on helping this group the way I wanted to and the way I planned to when I first got traded here.

I believed that I was going to be able to come in and make a bigger impact right away with my play. No training camp and the situation just kind of piled up. I knew it was going to be difficult and when it happened, I knew the hockey part was going to be a lot of fun.

But, the more difficult part would be the family stuff and so I was aware of it. As I continue to battle through this thing, I’ve got to keep my head going forward and stay focused in on a game at a time. I know it’s cliche and you guys probably hate it, but that’s all I can really do right now.

The 30-year-old was surprisingly acquired by Ottawa for a second-round pick just after Christmas from Arizona in exchange for a second-round pick in a deal that gave the Coyotes some much-needed salary cap relief.  While Stepan was hoping to make that bigger impact, it hasn’t quite materialized yet.  He has just a single goal with three assists in 14 games this season while his ice time has actually dipped by more than two minutes per night to just 15:31 per game.

Nonetheless, the veteran would be a desirable addition to the bottom six group of a contending team although the salary cap will certainly affect things.  He has a $6.5MM AAV (though just a prorated $2MM is owed in salary with his signing bonus already paid) which most teams can’t afford.  Even if Ottawa retained the maximum 50%, they’d still likely need to take a contract back to facilitate a move.  Although the Senators certainly appear to be trying to do Stepan a favor by moving him back to the United States where he can be reunited with his family, it’s one that may have to take a while to accomplish.

Matt Murray Won't Play On Saturday

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  • The Senators will be without starting goalie Matt Murray for tomorrow’s game against Winnipeg, the team announced (Twitter link). He left Thursday’s contest after two periods with an upper-body injury and is listed as day-to-day.  Marcus Hogberg will get the start in Murray’s absence.  Filip Gustavsson is on the taxi squad and will be recalled to the active roster on Saturday.

Loui Eriksson, Artem Anisimov Among Those On Waivers

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Feb 11: All three players have cleared waivers. They can now be assigned to the taxi squad or AHL.

Feb 10: The Vancouver Canucks have placed Loui Eriksson on waivers again, after clearing just before the season began. Eriksson has played in just one game, but the team has decided to reset his waiver clock so that they can continue to move him to the taxi squad. He isn’t alone on waivers today. Artem Anisimov of the Ottawa Senators and Taylor Fedun of the Dallas Stars have also both been placed on waivers, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

Seeing Eriksson there shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Despite carrying a $6MM cap hit, tied for the highest on the team, the 35-year-old forward is basically a practice player at this point in his career. He suited up 49 times last season for the Canucks but recorded just six goals and 13 points. Eriksson received an odd chance to skate beside Bo Horvat on the weekend, but was quickly moved back off that line and scratched the following game. He won’t be claimed, not at that price.

Anisimov’s story isn’t all that different. Now 32, Anisimov hasn’t been a regular in the Senators lineup this season and has just one point in four games. His contract carries a $4.55MM cap hit (though the actual salary remaining is very low) and he is a shell of his former self. There was a time when Anisimov could be relied on for 20 goals and forty points, but that seems to be in the past—at least while he remains in Ottawa.

Fedun is a much different kind of player, still scratching by for any chance he can get in the NHL. The 32-year-old undrafted defenseman has played in just 127 games over the course of his long professional career and none this season with the Stars. He does have some interesting possession statistics over the last two seasons and has recorded 20 points in 81 games, but it seems unlikely that anyone would claim him, given the other names that have slipped through waivers already this season.

 

Trade Rumors: Bennett, DeAngelo, Stepan

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As if there weren’t enough whispers surrounding Calgary Flames forward Sam Bennett, his healthy scratch last night did not help. The news emerged well ahead of the Flames’ game on Thursday that Bennett would not play and TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that speculation swelled across the league that this implied Bennett was available for trade. Bennett’s play has improved of late and the player himself even told the media that the scratch came as a surprise. However, with Bennett wanting out of Calgary – though he would not confirm a formal trade request – perhaps the Flames want to look at other internal options who could take Bennett’s place, as well as protect the health of their trade asset. With that said, Dreger warns not to get too excited. He says a trade is certainly not imminent, which harkens back to the Flames own admission that they would not rush to trade Bennett and may not move him at all if they cannot find the right deal.

  • As for the possibility of a trade involving Bennett and another player on the block, New York Rangers defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, there are mixed reports. On Wednesday, Bob McKenzie reported on the NBC Sports broadcast that the Calgary Flames were among four or five teams that had interest in the “reclamation project” that is DeAngelo. A talented, but polarizing player, DeAngelo could be of interest to any number of teams, so even a Calgary team with good defensive depth would not be a major surprise. However, Sportsnet’s Flames beat writer Eric Francis dispelled the rumors of Calgary interest in DeAngelo. He also reiterated that the team will take their time with a Bennett trade and will not rush into a deal for another player on the rumor mill.
  • The other teams mentioned by McKenzie as kicking the tires on DeAngelo: the Anaheim Ducks, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings. As rebuilding teams, taking a chance on the talent and youth of DeAngelo makes a ton of sense for any of these clubs. Considering that DeAngelo has already cleared waivers as well, Detroit or L.A. could also convince New York to add a draft pick to the trade, while Anaheim may be more interested in the Rangers retaining some of DeAngelo’s $4.8MM salary.
  • Despite an impressive win over the rival Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, the season has not gone as planned so far for the Ottawa Senators. After adding some veterans to the roster this off-season, the team hoped the influx of experience and talent combined with their considerable youth and upside would result in more wins. Thus far, they have the league’s worst record at 2-8-1. As a result, changes could be coming to the roster. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that one major change could be a quick flip of veteran center Derek Stepan. Stepan was acquired right before training camp in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes but has failed to make much of an impact for the Senators. He has just three points and -7 rating through ten games, averaging just two shots per game and on pace for the worst possession numbers of his career. It is believed that Stepan is as unhappy with his role in Ottawa as the Senators are in his production. A separation could be coming soon  since the veteran still has value across the league, especially on an expiring contract. Stepan, 30, is a durable, two-way center who has scored at a 40-point pace or better in each of nine NHL season prior to last year.

Minor Transactions: 02/05/21

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It’s opening day in the AHL for a number of teams with more set to get underway this weekend, while others are getting started with training camp. As a result, official rosters continue to be released and a few of these lists have included some surprising names. Follow along with these reveals as well as other minor moves around the hockey world:

  • Operating without an AHL affiliate this year, as the Milwaukee Admirals opted out of the season, the Nashville Predators were expected to share the Chicago Wolves with the Carolina Hurricanes. However, seeing as Carolina is the actual parent club and there are only so many AHL roster spots to go around, it seems Nashville has made other arrangements for some of their other prospects. The newly released training camp roster for the Tucson Roadrunners, affiliate of the Arizona Coyotes, shows that Nashville forwards Michael Carcone and Josh Wilkins have been loaned to the club. Wilkins is in his second season with the Predators organization as an undrafted free agent out of Providence College, while Carcone joined the organization as a UFA this summer and has four seasons of AHL experience under his belt. It’s an unexpected but welcome influx of talent and experienced up front for the Roadrunners.
  • Another former Milwaukee Admiral was a surprise inclusion on the Bridgeport Sound Tigers opening day roster. Per the AHL transactions log, goaltender Ken Appleby has signed with Bridgeport for this season. The former New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets keeper spent last season on an AHL contract and will do so again this year. However, he hopes that he can eventually earn another NHL deal, perhaps even over the course of the season as he did with the Jets in 2018-19. The 25-year-old was stellar in three emergency appearances for the Devils in 2017-18 and has good numbers in the AHL and ECHL over his five-year pro career.
  • A familiar face is joining the Belleville Senators on a PTO in training camp. Veteran defenseman Cody Goloubef has joined the club on a tryout basis, Belleville announced. Goloubef previously played with the AHL Senators in 2018-19 after coming over in a trade with the Boston Bruins, but played exclusively in the NHL with Ottawa and the Detroit Red Wings last year. Seemingly unable to find a new NHL contract, the Ontario native has returned to his most recent AHL home and should have a strong chance at earning a contract. The 31-year-old Goloubef brings 160 NHL game and over 300 AHL games worth of experience to Belleville.
  • Philadelphia Flyers prospect Adam Ginning is preparing to spend at least one more year developing at home in Sweden. Farjestad BK of the SHL has announced an extension with Ginning through the 2021-22 season. The big defenseman, who stands 6’4″ and weighs in at over 200 pounds, has taken a step forward in the SHL this season, already setting a career high in points through just 32 games and asserting himself with the second-most penalty minutes on the team. The club feels that Ginning has pushed himself beyond many of the competing defensemen on the team and has claimed a top role on the blue line. Having claimed that role, he could be in for a special season next year before the Flyers inevitably try to bring him over.

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