Florida Panthers Sign Harry Zolnierczyk To PTO
The Florida Panthers continue to give out professional tryouts for their upcoming training camp, with the latest one going to Harry Zolnierczyk. The 29-year old is coming off a Stanley Cup Finals appearance with the Nashville Predators, and will try to convince the brass in Florida that he deserves an NHL contract. The Panthers have already invited both Brandon Pirri and Nikolai Belov to camp to battle for the last few roster spots.
Zolnierczyk is an example of a former undrafted college free agent, who has worked hard to keep himself relevant in professional hockey since coming out of Brown University. Bouncing back and forth from the AHL, he played 24 games for the Nashville Predators last season, his fifth NHL team. While proving capable as an AHL scoring threat, he’s never been given much of a chance to play a regular role in the NHL, and will try to show the Panthers that he deserves more than that.
Several Number Changes For Predators Next Season
- Any fans who bought a Viktor Arvidsson jersey during his breakout season last year will be disappointed today, as the team announced that he’ll be changing to #33 for next season. Frederick Gaudreau and Vladislav Kamenev will also change, claiming #89 and #91 respectively. Kamanev’s change is the most interesting, after he played just two games with the Predators last season. Though he was expected to press for a roster spot after another big AHL season, this actually may be more evidence that he’ll be given a chance with the NHL club at some point this year.
Central Notes: Subban, Josi, Ellis, Steen, Fabbri
Proving that defense is the key to a Stanley Cup Finals run, the NHL Network released its list of top 20 defensemen in the NHL and the Nashville Predators were stocked full of them. They had the most blueliners on the list, including P.K. Subban (#6), Roman Josi (#7) and Ryan Ellis (#19).
Subban, coming off his first year with the Predators after being traded from Montreal, had a solid season even though his numbers dropped from his previous three years with the Canadiens. Subban finished with 10 goals and 30 assists for the year, but made the all-star team and proved to be a pest to every team’s top scorers.
Josi’s season was also down from previous years, but his numbers also stood out with 12 goals and 37 assists, giving him three straight years with 49 points or more. Ellis leaped into the spotlight this year as he took his game to another level this year with a career high in goals with 16. He also had 11 power play points, three game-winning goals and led the team with 137 blocked shots.
Of course, Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson was first on the list, but only a couple other teams had more than one player on the top-20 list. With the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk (#15), the New York Rangers had two defensemen on the list with Ryan McDonagh at #17. The Calgary Flames also boasted two blueliners in the top 20, Dougie Hamilton (#16) and Mark Giordano (#18).
- In his final column, the St. Louis Post Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford writes that while the talk is that Alex Steen has regressed over the past couple of years, he believes that the 33-year-old wing has been cast in the wrong role. He believes that Steen’s 33-goal season in 2013-14 was an anomaly and he should not be considered as a 30-goal scorer. If looked at from a 20-goal scoring point of view, Steen’s numbers (33 goals in the last two seasons) make more sense.
- Rutherford in the same piece adds that he does not believe any of the Blues top prospects, Klim Kostin, Jordan Kyrou or Tage Thompson, have much of a chance of breaking with the Blues after training camp. He said Kostin is still recovering from an injury and just moved to the U.S. a couple of months ago. Kyrou is ticketed to go back to his junior team, while Thompson struggled adjusting to the AHL.
- Rutherford adds that Robby Fabbri is expected to be ready for training camp after tearing his ACL. He believes he will start the season off as the team’s center, but if the team is not scoring enough, he could easily see Fabbri forced to move back to the wing position.
NHL Notes: Raanta, Darling, Tolvanen, Duclair
With Antti Raanta and Scott Darling attempting to make the conversion from backup to starter this season, many believe that both will be successful. However, history suggests that’s not always the case. NBC Sports Adam Gretz writes that the best comparable for both is Cam Talbot, who was hugely successful as a backup for the New York Rangers and continued that success as a starter after being traded to the Edmonton Oilers.
Gretz writes that while Talbot is the perfect comparison, there are also plenty of goaltenders who have failed to make the full-time conversion over the last 15 years, including a few names that many have long forgotten. Eddie Lack and Anton Khudobin each struggled as starters for Carolina which forced them to go out and get Darling in the first place, while other goaltenders such as Dan Ellis, Alex Stalock, Ben Scrivens and Vesa Toskala didn’t fare particularly well.
The hope is that both Raanta and Darling are more proven as backups than a lot of the others and are more NHL ready to handle a larger workload. Raanta and Darling’s success will be critical for the team to take their team to the next step.
- Nashville Predators prospect Eeli Tolvanen, the team’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft, signed a three-year deal to play for Jokerit Helsinki of the KHL earlier in the offseason. International hockey writer Igor Eronko tweeted Tolvanen told him that his second year is a player’s option and if he has a good year, he will come stateside next year. It’s only been three games for Tolvanen, but he is currently third in the league in scoring with six points and is third in the league in shots taken.
- Gretz, in another story writes this is a critical year for Arizona’s Anthony Duclair. The 22-year-old wing got the city excited when he posted a 20-goal season two years ago, but came crashing back to earth last year after a five-goal output. Gretz points out that he scored on 19 percent of his shots in the 2015-16 season, which is extremely high and not sustainable over the long-term. Last year, Duclair’s numbers dropped to six percent. The still restricted free agent has not come to terms with the team.
Eeli Tolvanen Will Stay In KHL For Entire Season
- Eeli Tolvanen got off to a great start with his KHL team, and the Nashville Predators’ prospect spoke about where his future lies as he continues to develop. Tolvanen was denied admission to Boston College just before the draft, likely causing him to fall to the Predators at 30th-overall. Tolvanen says that Boston College told him he could join the university after Christmas, but he’s now dedicated to Jokerit where he’s playing against other professionals. Tolvanen has one of the most remarkable wrist shot releases in this year’s draft class, but he won’t compare himself to the best just yet: “When I was young, I dreamt about shooting like [Alex] Ovechkin. Hope that one day I can be at his level.”
Eeli Tolvanen Scores Hat Trick In KHL Debut
Nashville Predators’ fans, prepared to get excited. Eeli Tolvanen, the 30th-overall pick in this year’s draft made his KHL debut today playing for Jokerit and what a debut it was. The 18-year old forward scored a hat trick and added an assist in just over 13 and a half minutes of ice time as they took down Dinamo Minsk 6-1 in their first game. While obviously it will be impossible for Tolvanen to continue this pace, he becomes the youngest player in KHL history to record a hat trick.
- David Legwand will step behind the bench of the Sarnia Sting, an OHL franchise he is part owner of. The long time Nashville Predators’ forward will take an Associate Coach position with the team just over a year removed from his playing career. Legwand was an excellent player in his day, recording 618 points in 1,136 games over a 17-year NHL career. He’ll now join head coach Derian Hatcher in trying to turn the Sting around after a disappointing 2016-17 season. He’ll have to hope that Jordan Kyrou doesn’t make the St. Louis Blues out of camp, as he looked ready to take the next step towards professional hockey in the World Junior Summer Showcase. If Kyrou returns to the Sting, he could be in contention to lead the league in points after coming in sixth last year.
Marek Mazanec Signs In KHL
Marek Mazanec has signed a one-year deal with HC Slovan Bratislava of the KHL, after an interesting offseason. Despite reports that the Nashville Predators would move on from the goaltender, they issued him a qualifying offer and he filed for salary arbitration. Before the hearing, the Predators placed Mazanec on waivers as a negotiating tactic and saw him settle for a two-way $650K contract.
That contract will be mutually terminated according to the Slovan press release, a topic we looked at in detail recently. Mazanec will forfeit the salary in order to go play in the KHL where he’ll have much more opportunity. The Predators signed both Matt O’Connor and Anders Lindback this offseason to compete in the minors, while Juuse Saros is expected to move up and be the full-time back up to Pekka Rinne.
Mazanec played in just four games for the Predators last season and was overmatched, recording an .839 save percentage. While he’d shown more potential in the past, the team was clearly ready to move in a different direction.
The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)
This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.
The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.
With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.
The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.
Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season. Take Loui Eriksson for instance:
2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM
While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.
For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros? As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.
It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof. Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.
This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.
Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements. Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus. He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA. The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.
Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation. Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.
Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.
This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price‘s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.
Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.
Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.
Summer Predictions: Central Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ve looked at three of the divisions so far, with the polls pointing to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton Oilers as the top seeds. All three of those teams failed to lead their divisions in 2016-17, but are expected to take another step forward.
Today we’ll finish the series by taking a look at the Central division, which last season gave us the top two records in the Western Conference and the Stanley Cup finalists. Once again choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
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Expiring NCAA Draft Rights
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.
They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:
Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)
*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.