The Oldest NHL Rosters, Looking Forward
The average age of a team is a stat which gets thrown around rarely, but it can be quite telling when it comes to salary cap planning and drafting. The youngest teams tend to have exceptionally talented stars under the age of 25 (Oilers, Blue Jackets), or find themselves out of contention entirely, banking on the rebuilding process (Arizona, Colorado). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the most aged teams, some past their windows of contention and almost all struggling with an identity crisis. However, there are outliers in the group – for instance, Florida is the 5th oldest team at present, while most of the top talent is still in their primes. Still, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings all have Father Time looming ominously above their franchises. All of these teams could re-structure themselves and find themselves back on the right track, if their drafting improves and their general managers cut loose harmful contracts while able.
Ottawa Senators
The most recently successful of the three, Ottawa fans likely aren’t expecting another Conference Finals finish. The team lost Marc Methot in expansion, and their largest move in the off-season was the signing of 35-year-old Johnny Oduya. With an average age of 29.73, they should be see the effects of age start to impact their performance. Although 36 year-old Craig Anderson was pivotal in their 2016-17 success, he has one year remaining on his contract and Marcus Hogberg will be looking for an opening in the mid-term future. If Anderson’s workload drastically increases, he could find difficulty in maintaining his above average numbers, and that could spell trouble. By re-signing the steady Mike Condon, however, they at least alleviated that concern.
The team had a chance to unload 30 year-old Bobby Ryan to Vegas, but opted against it. They’ll now have his contract on the books until he’s 35. 36 year-old Alex Burrows has two years remaining on his deal, while 32 year-old Clarke MacArthur has three. 32 year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf has hard mileage on him with his physical style of play, and has four years remaining on his deal. Outside of Colin White, Cody Ceci, and Fredrik Claesson, everyone on the roster is over the age of 25. If Logan Brown pans out, he should go a long way in rejuvenating the forward corps. Filip Chlapik of Charlottestown is certainly no slouch either. On the defensive side, Thomas Chabot has the talent to make a significant impact, but there’s a logjam of older veterans in his way. While Ottawa obviously doesn’t need to entertain a full rebuild, they need to allow their prospects a chance to make the NHL squad and embrace a youth infusion. Signing the Oduyas of the world only prolongs that necessity.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have paid out far too much money to mediocre talent, and it has been death by a thousand papercuts for Ken Holland. The team now finds itself $3.9 MM over the salary ceiling, desperately trying to find a way to shed salary and slip under before year’s start while still signing RFA Andreas Athanasiou. This is another franchise who opted to go with an established veteran on the backend this summer, Trevor Daley (33), when the team was in desperate need of younger legs. The team finds itself second oldest league-wide, with an average age of 29.27. Part of the reason Detroit consistently finds itself among the oldest franchises in the league is that the organization places extreme value on fully maturing its prospects, usually in the AHL, before regularly dressing for the big club. This is a fine ideal, but it usually results in more expensive contracts for RFAs, as the totals posted by well-groomed players are usually superior to those of untested rookies. In the Salary Cap era, having productive players on ELCs is a huge contributor to success.
Henrik Zetterberg, 36, has four more years on his deal, and logs exceptionally taxing minutes. Johan Franzen, 37, is already burning cap space, as his LTIR will be on the books for another 3 seasons. Once the year begins, its not a great issue, but it complicates matters in the off-season. Frans Nielsen, 33, is no spring chicken himself and also takes on greater responsibility in Detroit than he ever did in Long Island. With 5 years remaining on his deal, it begs the question of whether he will be performing at a Selke-caliber when he’s turning 38. Only Xavier Ouellet and Danny DeKeyser are under the age of 30 on defense, with Daley, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, and Jonathan Ericsson all having no-trade clauses. The Wings have some enticing prospects on the horizon, but with so many immovable and long-term contracts, it will be difficult for them to find places on the team in the short-term. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are both ready for larger roles, but true talents like Michael Rasmussen should get the opportunity to shine in a top-six role. Detroit is in no position to seriously compete, and perhaps it’s time to embrace the necessary partial rebuild. Trading some of the dead-weight contracts would be a solid start.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is only a few years removed from a Stanley Cup win, but it seems like ages past. They have the third-oldest roster on paper at the moment, with an average age of 29.14. The Kings don’t actually have any players over the age of 35, so in that sense, they’ve avoided serious headaches. Marian Gaborik (35) and Mike Cammalleri (35) are the team’s greybeards, and while both had down seasons, they could each realistically rebound under new leadership. The problem for Los Angeles is that they don’t have any bonafide prospects pushing the issue. Adrian Kempe is the surest best to make the roster this year, as he could slot into a bottom-six role quite easily. Defenseman Paul LaDue should see his fair share of work this year as well. Beyond that, they’ll have no players playing on entry-level contracts. It’s simply unsustainable to draft in such a poor manner for so long, and Los Angeles is seeing the hurt now. If Jonny Brodzinski, a former 5th-rounder, could make the leap permanent, it would be a great help.
The Kings are over $6.8 MM under the cap ceiling, so unlike the Wings and Senators the franchise isn’t overly concerned about money. Dustin Brown‘s contract is particularly egregious, but there’s not much to be done about it. Los Angeles can still turn things around, but they’ll need more recent draft picks to find a way to contribute going forward. Gabriel Viladri will head back to Windsor for the season, but he could inject a serious shot of youthful speed and creativity into the roster in 2018-19. There’s just not a ton of excitement when it comes to Kings prospects, and considering that Vilardi was the first first-round pick since 2014 (Kempe), it’s easy to see why. Still, Tanner Pearson (25) and Tyler Toffoli (25) should have more prominent offensive roles this year, while some older defensemen were abandoned, so management seems to be righting the ship.
Kings Not Interested In Signing Jaromir Jagr
- The Kings are not interested in signing unrestricted free agent winger Jaromir Jagr, GM Rob Blake noted to reporters, including LA Kings Insider Jon Rosen, at a State of the Franchise meeting. Los Angeles has been fairly quiet with their offseason movement up front as Mike Cammalleri is the only addition of note among the forwards. Jagr’s 30 assists and 46 points would have ranked third on the Kings in scoring last season but his lack of speed appears to have really hindered his market this summer.
Marian Gaborik Has “Non-Surgical Procedure” On Knee
At the Los Angeles Kings’ state of the franchise event yesterday, GM Rob Blake revealed to season ticket holders and media that Marian Gaborik had undergone a “non-surgical” procedure and is still unlikely for camp. That news comes from Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period and the NHL Network, who reports the procedure was to repair ligament and tendon damage in his knee.
While it’s not clear if this is a new procedure or the same one Blake spoke about back in April, but it does cast further doubt on the start of Gaborik’s season. With the less-than-forthcoming way that the Kings are explaining the procedure and injury itself, there deserves to be some speculation on whether or not the team is planning on using some long-term injured reserve time for the aging winger. Gaborik for what it’s worth has posted several videos and photos of him training or biking recently, showing that he’s at least healthy enough to be in the gym.
Gaborik is coming off another dreadful season in which he registered just 21 points and will play this season at 35-years old. With still four years remaining on his contract, there was thought that the Kings might buy him out this summer. That couldn’t happen with his injury, and the opportunity is starting to disappear. With his front-loaded contract, a buyout next summer would result in a still fairly hefty cap hit.
Matt Greene Joins Los Angeles Scouting Staff
After being bought out in June by the Los Angeles Kings, it wasn’t clear if Matt Greene had a future in the NHL. He was 34, two years removed from his last full healthy season, and the Kings were clearly trying to bring in a younger more mobile group for next season. Now the team has announced that he will retire and join them as a professional scout, working the AHL Pacific region for the time being.
Greene, a second-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers in 2002, played 615 games at the NHL level over 12 seasons. He was part of the Oilers team that took Carolina to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals, and took the trophy home twice during his time with the Kings. His legacy there will be that of a tough, in your face defenseman who was hard to play against and would put his body on the line every night. He was never an offensive force and didn’t ever log more than 20 minutes a night, but still served as an alternate captain for eight years.
He’ll join a front office that’s seen quite the change in the past few months, as Rob Blake and Luc Robitaille have taken full control and started to change the direction of the team.
Dwight King Signs Two-Year Deal In KHL
It had been rumored since last month, but Dwight King is now officially a member of Avtomobilist in the KHL. The former Los Angeles Kings forward has signed a two-year deal with the club. King actually ranked 49th in our list of the top free agents this summer, even after a dreadful finish to the season with Montreal. Acquired at the deadline, King recorded just one point through 23 games for the Canadiens (17 regular season and 6 playoff).
King had previously been a solid bottom-six contributor for the Kings, winning two Stanley Cups with the club. At 28, he’ll now try to revitalize his career in a foreign league, quite a distance from his hometown of Meadow Lake, Saskatchewan. The big-bodied forward could return in a few years should he find that secondary scoring touch again, but this departure could also provide another opportunity.
With Team Canada scouring the world for potential Olympic players, King’s experience and NHL pedigree may put him in consideration. He wouldn’t be an exciting add, but when players like Rob Klinkhammer are getting similar looks, he may just be one of the best options available.
Free Agent Profile: Dennis Wideman
Recently, PHR has been shining some light on remaining free agents in a very quiet market, with players like P.A. Parenteau, Daniel Winnik, Brian Gionta, Jarome Iginla, and Drew Stafford getting some extra attention. The one thing that those players have in common is that there is not a defenseman among them. The last defenseman profiled was Johnny Oduya, who signed with the Ottawa Senators the next day and remains the last major UFA to have signed an NHL deal. Meanwhile, veteran Andrei Markov left for Russia, while big blue liner Cody Franson remains in limbo (and should consider investing in some real estate there).
Why have no other defenseman garnered attention, both from NHL teams nor the PHR team? There are simply few quality defenders left on the market. Outside of Franson, one lone defenseman remains unsigned from PHR’s list of the Top 50 2017 Free Agents: Dennis Wideman. Wideman was the last man to make the list, ranking 50th overall and 14th among defenseman. At 34 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons that could both be considered the worst of his career, Wideman wasn’t exactly a hot commodity. However, it was still projected that Wideman would find work based on a long track record of being able to play major minutes and put up points, even if just on a short-term inexpensive deal.
Luckily for Wideman, that is still a distinct possibility even in mid-August. The free agent market, for not only defenseman but for all players, is all but dead, yet opportunities remain. Signings have been few and far in between, but Wideman faces only Franson for any open blue line spots and brings a very different skill set. Wideman is an 11-year veteran with 387 points in 815 NHL games and was once considered one of the top puck-movers in the game. Wideman even drew Norris Trophy votes in 2008-09 with the Boston Bruins and turned his impressive resume into a five-year, $26.25MM contract with the Calgary Flames in 2012. Wideman is far from that player today, but still carries the pedigree of a possession defenseman capable of playing big minutes when needed and helping out on the power play.
Even if Franson signs a new contract first, Wideman’s chances of landing a deal of his own are still fair. In each of the past two years, two legitimate NHL defenseman have signed contracts late in free agency. Last year, it was Dennis Seidenberg going to the New York Islanders and Kyle Quincey signing with the New Jersey Devils. Seidenberg looked rejuvenated in Brooklyn and earned himself an extension, while Quincey proved to be a valuable veteran and trade chip for the Devils and has already signed with the Minnesota Wild this summer. In 2015, it was Franson himself, ending up with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year deal, and David Schlemko, yet another one-year value deal for the Devils.
Potential Suitors
If the pattern isn’t clear yet, a one-year “show me” deal for Wideman with the New Jersey Devils remains a very real possibility. For the third season in a row, the Devils could greatly benefit from adding a talented veteran on the cheap. Although the team has a pair of consummate pros in captain Andy Greene and veteran Ben Lovejoy, as well as some exciting young players like Damon Severson, Mirco Mueller, and John Moore, the team is lacking in depth. Bringing in Wideman, who has become accustomed to a part-time role in Calgary over the past few years, to be a spot starter, capable injury replacement, and mentor to the young offensive blue liners would be a savvy signing by GM Ray Shero.
Another team that is going to be rumored to be in on a top-four defenseman until they actually go out and get one is the Colorado Avalanche. With just three defenseman currently signed to one-way deals and a depth chart lacking in legitimate NHLers, the rebuilding Avs are desperate for help on the blue line. It would not come as surprise if Colorado ended up signing both Wideman and Franson if their “D” corps looks as bad in camp as it does on paper.
Other interested parties that may be looking for affordable veteran depth – and specifically keyed in on a right-handed shot – include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, or a return to the Washington Capitals.
Expected Contract
The original speculation for Wideman was that he would sign a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. At this point in the off-season and given Wideman’s age and the substantial wear on his tires, a one-year pact is all but certain. The $1.5MM? That isn’t out of the question. Wideman’s past two seasons with the Flames were none toof inspiring and Calgary fans were happy to see him go. However, that doesn’t mean that Wideman can’t return to form with a change of scenery and is just two years removed from a career-high 56 points. He may still be able to command a seven figure salary. The longer he goes unsigned though, the more and more likely he ends up under $1MM. Wideman seems unlikely to take the absolute minimum, $650K, and will hold out hope that he can get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $1.25MM deals that Quincey signed last year and this year. In the end, he may have to settle for only a bit more if he wants to extend his NHL playing career. One way or another, Wideman will be making much less and will have a very different role with his next contract versus his last.
Connor Brown Confident Contract Will Be Signed Before Season Begins
TSN caught up with a handful of NHL players at Nazem Kadri‘s fifth annual golf tournament supporting mental health in London, Ontario including Toronto Maple Leafs forward Connor Brown. Brown is without a contract still as one of the final restricted free agents of the offseason, but isn’t worried about the ongoing negotiations.
You’ve got to control what you can control, and go about your business everyday…I’m just leaving that to my agent and the team.
It’s obviously my first time going through something like this, and I don’t think it’s as stressful as the media would make it out to be. I’m very confident things will get sorted out by season time.
Brown also expressed his excitement about the Maple Leafs offseason, including the additions of Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey. The team will be relying on Brown as a secondary scoring option behind the big names, after he scored 20 goals as a rookie last season. The 23-year old is responsible defensively and was born and raised in Toronto, giving both sides a little more incentive to get a deal done.
- Among the other players spoken to was Drew Doughty, who has known Kadri since they were young boys growing up in London. Doughty spoke about his frustration with the NHL’s Olympic decision, saying that fans won’t enjoy the Games as much without the top players in the world. Doughty should know, as he already has two Olympic gold medals under his belt from 2010 and 2014. A winner at basically every level, he’s also collected World Junior and World Cup gold to go along with his pair of Stanley Cup victories.
Summer Predictions: Pacific Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ve already looked at the Metropolitan and Atlantic divisions, where the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning are leading respectively. The Lightning didn’t even make the playoffs last season, but as we’ve examined before could have a bounce-back year if they can stay healthy. The upstart Maple Leafs are currently second, despite barely getting into the postseason last year.
Today, we’ll move to the other Conference and take a look at highly contested Pacific division. They’ll welcome in a new franchise this season, but could still be one of the most competitive groups in the NHL with four teams who have legitimate claims as a Stanley Cup contender. Choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
Who will win the Pacific Division?
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Edmonton Oilers 38% (407)
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Anaheim Ducks 29% (316)
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Calgary Flames 9% (99)
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Los Angeles Kings 9% (92)
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San Jose Sharks 6% (62)
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Vegas Golden Knights 5% (58)
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Vancouver Canucks 2% (25)
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Arizona Coyotes 2% (22)
Total votes: 1,081
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Early Notes: Gretzky, Heatley, Stanley
Twenty-nine years ago today Wayne Gretzky was traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the Los Angeles Kings in a deal that would change the fate of hockey in Southern California. All of a sudden the greatest player of all time was playing in a non-traditional hockey market. NHL.com’s Lisa Dillman chronicles the trade, and how Gretzky was feeling at the time.
When looking back at the deal, many fans remember the $15MM price tag paid by the Kings and equate the deal to a purchase from the less-wealthy Oilers franchise. But there were other parts that should be remembered. Los Angeles also traded Jimmy Carson, a 20-year old former second-overall pick who was coming off a 55-goal, 107-point season, Martin Gelinas the seventh-overall pick from just a few months earlier, and three additional first-round picks. That’s in addition to the $15MM, while the Oilers also sent Marty McSorley and Mike Krushelnyski south along with Gretzky. It was lopsided for sure because of Gretzky’s greatness, but the return shouldn’t be minimized. It was likely the biggest trade that will ever happen in the NHL.
- According to CTV News in Calgary, former NHL star Dany Heatley has won a court decision over his former agent for losing a large part of his career earnings, given a judgement of just over $6.5MM. Apparently Heatley won a similar court case in the past and was never paid, so it is still to be seen whether he actually gets it. Chris Phillips, Heatley’s former Ottawa Senators teammate who used the same agent also sued in the past and was given a judgement of over $7MM, though was only paid a fraction of the settlement.
- Winnipeg Jets’ prospect Logan Stanley was traded from the Windsor Spitfires to the Kitchener Rangers yesterday for a package of picks. The huge defender was selected 18th-overall in 2016 and won a Memorial Cup after coming back from injury just in time to compete in the tournament this spring. Windsor, with the hosting duties behind them and several players graduating to the NHL will look to rebuild their franchise and try to time a championship winning group a few years down the line.
- The Washington Capitals will be playing their home games in the Capital One Center this season, as Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post reports. The Verizon Center’s naming rights were up at the end of 2018, but will change a year early.
Bad Value: The Worst Contracts League-Wide
It’s always interesting to see where teams are spending their money unwisely, especially to the armchair GMs of every fanbase. In a fine article by Satchel Price of SB Nation, he breaks down what he believes is each team’s worst contract currently on the books. After the slew of buyouts that happened early in the off-season, many teams were able to cut ties with some of the worst offenders. Still, some of the worst cap criminals are primed to haunt their teams yet again in 2017-18. Discounting the injured Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, and Dave Bolland, these were some of the names that stuck out on the list.
David Backes – Boston Bruins – 4 yrs x $6 MM
When Backes signed this contract, many were wondering what the Boston management were thinking. Backes already was showing signs of decline his last two seasons in St. Louis, and his tough style of play was always going to take away from his longevity. He still flirts with 40+ points and adds solid two-way ability. But in 2 seasons, if Backes continues to slow and falter possession-wise, this contract may become a brutal obstacle to beefing up the offense.
Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks – 7 yrs x $6.785 MM
Seabrook was a player who really piggy-backed off the success of the Hawks cup teams. He was a solid player, but by no means a core player. GM Stan Bowman thought differently, and handed out a massive, maximum-term contract, complete with a no-movement clause. Chicago has really struggled to fill their depth forward and bottom defensive positions out with cheap players, largely because of overpayments like this. Seabrook did accumulate a ton of assists last year, but his goal scoring has all but disappeared. Perhaps the worst negative to Seabrook? He’s never been a positive possession player in Corsi relative, in any single season he’s played. For a franchise that pays Jonathan Toews over $10 MM AAV, this contract is absolutely crippling.
Dustin Brown – L.A. Kings – 5 yrs x $5.875 MM
Brown benefited from the same intangibles-related inflation that Toews did. Leading a team to multiple Cups is generally a recipe to have your value balloon immensely. Winners are winners, after all. Brown, though, was never really integral to the team’s on-ice success in 2012 or 2014, and his undisputed leadership abilities didn’t help the team in the past few years when they have struggled to put pucks in the nett. His two-way ability is solid, but not elite, and he hasn’t broken 20 goals since 2011-12. Perhaps Brown can be revitalized under the system of coach John Stevens, but his body has to have taken a toll with the way he’s played the game. One need only look to former King Mike Richards to see what gritty, shot-blocking forwards have in the way of staying power.
Marc Staal – New York Rangers – 4 yrs x $5.75 MM
In all likelihood, the primary reason Staal has not already been bought out is because he had one more year on his contract than the much-maligned Dan Girardi. Staal has been a noticeably bad defender in terms of possession stats for the last three seasons, and showed few (if any) signs of improvement this season. He still logs over 19 minutes of ice a night, so he’s not stapled to the bench. But he’s not a top-four defender at this point, and considering how he’s never been a two-way threat, his one-dimensional game may only deteriorate further.
Andrew MacDonald – Philadelphia Flyers – 3 ys x $5 MM
This is a prime example of an error that most teams have learned to avoid – handing out multi-year deals to wildly inconsistent players. MacDonald had his offensive totals inflated by playing for a very lean New York Islanders team, and Philadelphia pounced on acquiring this player in the midst of a -9.0% Corsi Relative season. MacDonald has since dried up offensively, and while he has cleaned up his possession numbers against weaker competition, he still needs massive sheltering. He also has had a heck of a time staying healthy – he’s missed 93 contests over the last 3 campaigns. MacDonald is now taking valuable playing time from a young defensive core and hindering the team’s ability to acquire top free agents.