Looking Ahead To The Incoming Seguin Saga
Superstars in their prime never reach free agency. That’s what was the common belief leading up to the summer of 2016, when Steven Stamkos still didn’t have a contract extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even as the months went by, Stamkos was always expected to re-sign like so many other stars had done before him. People knew to not get excited about a potential big name NHL free agent, as so often they would sign a team-leading contract extension well in advance and never even flirt with the open market. Stamkos though was different. The star center certainly flirted, even going out for dates with his potential suitors by taking meetings during the free agent negotiation window. Maybe there was a change coming in the NHL, and Stamkos would upend the apple cart by leaving Tampa Bay for another team with massive contract offer.
And then, during one of the wildest days in recent NHL history, he didn’t.
Stamkos re-signed with the Lightning for a reasonable, below-market contract extension after seeing what else was out there and the NHL landscape returned to normal. The still relatively young forward chose the only franchise that he’d ever played for and a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup over the bigger dollar signs (at least in terms of pre-tax salary) offered elsewhere. Perhaps we witnessed the first cracks in the system with the Stamkos decision, but the outcome remained the same: superstars in their prime never reach free agency.
But this year something did change. John Tavares, probably the player most closely linked to Stamkos throughout his hockey playing career given their similar backgrounds, age group and NHL impact, was unsigned when the free agent bell rang on July 1st. A long, winding negotiation with the New York Islanders that had included an entire organizational face lift a few weeks prior ended without Tavares following the established hockey model of re-signing with the franchise you helped shape, and suddenly 30 other teams were (theoretically) in the running to add a star player in his prime for nothing more than money. Tavares wouldn’t last long on the open market, as his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs would quickly announce a seven-year, $77MM contract for their local hero. Whether the decision had to do with money, front office structure, Stanley Cup contention or just home cooking won’t ever be really known, but one thing was clear this July; the NHL free agent landscape had been changed.
Now suddenly a player in his prime could make it to free agency, and wasn’t necessarily expected to stay true to the team he currently played for. We perhaps saw the effect immediately when Artemi Panarin announced that he didn’t currently want to discuss an extension with the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite speaking highly of the organization and coaching staff. There doesn’t seem to be an animosity between the two sides but Panarin, now unburdened by the idea that a star player has to negotiate an extension early, decided he can wait to make a decision at a later date. The Blue Jackets are understandably worried about that situation, with rumors surfacing that they have at least considered a trade as a potential outcome for Panarin over the next year. They won’t want to be caught holding his empty jersey on July 1, 2019 without anything to show for it.
Where the Tavares example really becomes interesting though is with a more comparable player than Panarin, and one that is now less than a year away from perhaps inking his own $80MM+ contract. Tyler Seguin, the top line center for the Dallas Stars and second-overall pick from 2010, is now three weeks into the final season of his current six-year contract without an extension to be found. Seguin, 26, was born just a little more than a year after Tavares, just down the road in Brampton, Ontario. While Tavares was playing his final season of junior hockey for the Oshawa Generals and London Knights, Seguin was in his first for the Plymouth Whalers. Though Seguin would eventually drop behind Taylor Hall at the top of the 2010 draft board, his future potential was extremely well regarded by scouts all across the league as a potential top line center. What he’s turned into is perhaps even more impressive.
In each of last five seasons since being traded to Dallas, Seguin has recorded at least 26 goals and 72 points putting him among the NHL leaders for offensive production on yearly basis. In fact, his 384 points during that time is 12 more than the 372 that Tavares has registered during the same time, though it does come in nine more games played. Seguin is undoubtedly one of the top players in the NHL despite his checkered history with the Boston Bruins and their eventual decision to move on from him, and could be considered an even better free agent target than Tavares was this summer.
Though it certainly hasn’t taken up much space on talk radio in many NHL markets given Seguin’s relatively low-key reputation—playing in Dallas will do that to some players—it will before long. The Tavares negotiations were a daily concern for Islanders fans all season, with those from other markets drooling at the opportunity that could present itself if the Long Island captain ever made it to free agency. Should Seguin remain unsigned by the start of the season you can expect the same, perhaps with even more fervor given that there is now recent precedent of a player of his ilk getting to the open market. There’s no doubt that Seguin could change the fate of a franchise looking to contend in 2019-20, and his star should be considered no less bright than that of Tavares or Panarin.
As with almost any pending free agent, it’s important to note that Seguin has never indicated that he would not re-sign with Dallas or that he dislikes the organization in any way. In fact there is plenty of reason to expect he will eventually ink an eight-year extension with the team and play out the majority of his career in Texas. After what has happened this summer though, you can’t blame anyone for thinking their team may get a chance in a year’s time at adding one of the very best players in the NHL. After all, superstars in their prime now sometimes reach free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Anaheim Ducks, Brandon Montour Submit Arbitration Briefs
Salary arbitration is popular in the NHL this year. A process that often acts more as a looming threat to accelerate and finalize contract talks rather than for it’s actual intended use, arbitration has nonetheless been a much greater story line already this off-season compared to most. A decision for Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba is expected at some point today barring a last-minute agreement between both sides, the Calgary Flames and defenseman Brett Kulak have exchanged figures and seem likely to sit down for their scheduled hearing tomorrow, and now a third case is going through the motions ahead of a Tuesday hearing date.
Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reports that the Anaheim Ducks and defenseman Brandon Montour have exchanged arbitration briefs and requested salary figures this morning. Friedman states that the team side has filed at $1.5MM, while the player side has filed at $4.75MM. Friedman adds that, while the team decides the length of a player-elected arbitration decision, Montour is hopeful for one year while the team is asking for two. Montour is three years away from unrestricted free agency, meaning a contract of either length would expire under team control.
The exchange of arbitration figures today comes after a report yesterday that Ducks GM Bob Murray was still holding out hope that a bridge deal could be agreed upon. Often the formal submission of briefs is enough to get both sides on the same page and eager to keep the decision between them. The filing figures set a midpoint of $3.25MM. If the two sides use that as a starting point for a bridge deal, a three-year term would likely fall below that point – as Montour would then hit the free agent market – while anything longer would likely come in above it as prime UFA years are chewed up.
Montour is an interesting case as a player who has been very successful in limited game played before becoming arbitration eligible. Montour, 24, has only 107 NHL games to his credit, but has been a consistent scorer and top-four regular for Anaheim after honing his game at the college level with UMass. There aren’t many good comparisons of past arbitration-eligible contracts for players with this skill level but lack of experience. For something to compare it to, both the Edmonton Oilers’ Matt Benning and New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock are similar players who signed two-year deals worth $1.8MM and $2MM respectively this off-season. Neither is as well-rounded as Montour and neither had arbitration rights, meaning the decision is likely to come in above that point. However, Montour’s side may have a tough case – if it gets to that point – arguing that he is worth the full $4.75 given his limited games played in the league.
Central Notes: Trouba, Crawford, Wild
The Winnipeg Jets have proven to be a place where winning and success is starting to take fruition. Over the last couple of years, the team hasn’t had much trouble signing their key free agents, whether it’s Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers or Connor Hellebuyck.
That’s why its troubling to see the Jets and defenseman Jacob Trouba going to arbitration, the first player to take the Jets to arbitration in their history. This will be the second time the two sides have gone against each other in contract negotiations with the first encounter being quite heated and made it clear that Trouba didn’t want to be in Winnipeg. Considering that only one case in out of 55 last year went to arbitration, this just is another bad sign, according to Paul Wiecek of the Winnipeg Free-Press.
No matter what happens, the damage will have been done as arbitration only increases animosity between teams. With still lingering effects to the 15-game holdout between Trouba and the Jets, this will only worsen the problem. Wiecek suggests the team has two years to fix the problem and should start looking for a trade partner as soon as possible, because no matter how much he claims he loves it in Winnipeg, it looks more and more like he’ll bolt the first chance he reaches unrestricted free agency. Trading him as soon as possible will only bring home the best returns, which would be another solid defenseman.
- Mark Lazerus of The Chicago Sun-Times writes that the Chicago Blackhawks will know more about the status of goaltender Corey Crawford in the coming weeks. The veteran goaltender, who missed a large portion of the season last year, is expected to start skating soon and so far looks to be on track to returning this season. “I ran into him [Monday] and talked to him for a while,” general manager Stan Bowman said on Tuesday. “Things are looking good. He said he hasn’t done a whole lot of on-ice stuff yet, but a few of our guys were just starting to skate today, as well. I think they’ll get ramped up over the next six weeks and get more on-ice preparation. I know he’s been training off-ice. Hopefully, things are good.”
- The Minnesota Wild announced their new affiliation with the Allen Americans as their new ECHL franchise for the 2018-19 season. The team, based in Allen, Texas, has been a successful franchise over its nine years of existence, making the playoffs nine straight years including five years in the CHL and another four in the ECHL. They won the President’s Cup in 2013 and 2014, while winning the Kelly Cup in 2015 and 2016. The Wild used their Rapid City Rush last year as their ECHL affiliate.
Free Agent Profile: Mark Letestu
Mark Letestu has been a useful bottom-six center around the league in recent years but has yet to be signed for next season. Here is a closer look at his situation.
The 33-year-old started off last season with the Oilers and while he fell short of his point per game average from the year before, he was still relatively productive given his role with 19 points in 60 games. That resulted in some trade interest before the deadline and he was flipped to Columbus.
With the Blue Jackets, he didn’t fare as well. He was used solely as a fourth line faceoff specialist which resulted in his output dropping considerably with just four points in 19 games. His playing time was slashed by more than three minutes per night in the postseason and he was fairly quiet overall. There’s a good chance that this has affected his market so far.
Despite that, as someone who has averaged better than 50% at the faceoff dot throughout his career, Letestu should attract some interest as a specialist while as much as he didn’t light it up with Columbus, he has been a decent point producer in previous years. That’s likely the argument that his representatives are making in negotiations.
Potential Suitors
Center depth is something that contenders often look to acquire at the trade deadline but it wouldn’t be surprising for some rebuilding teams to show some interest as well. In those cases, the team would want Letestu to serve as a bridge for a youngster that isn’t quite ready yet and then look to flip him at the deadline.
In the East, while Carolina added Jordan Martinook when they dealt Marcus Kruger earlier this offseason, he’s better utilized on the wing which could make an opening for Letestu. He’d also serve as insurance if youngster Martin Necas struggles in training camp. The Flyers were looking for a third line center earlier in free agency but they may look to fill that role internally. Washington should have some room to work with to upgrade their bottom six and their center depth behind their top three options is somewhat limited. Toronto is believed to be high on Par Lindholm for their fourth line spot but they could certainly look to Letestu to add some competition for that position.
The options aren’t quite as plentiful out West. San Jose has cap room to work with and could use him on their fourth line. Anaheim added Carter Rowney earlier this summer but Letestu would be an upgrade over him; Ducks GM Bob Murray is known to tinker with his fourth line midseason so this would represent an opportunity to improve beforehand. Chicago now has cap space but the return of Kruger doesn’t really leave room for Letestu to work with. We had originally projected Calgary to sign him but they added Derek Ryan in free agency as well as Austin Czarnik, who has played center at times as well so there isn’t a great fit there now either.
Projected Contract
Letestu ranked 40th on our Top 50 UFA list and had a projected one-year, $1.75MM contract. It’s hard to envision him getting that amount now that most of the comparable depth centers have gone elsewhere and there aren’t a lot of vacancies left. However, he’s not in a situation where he should have to settle for close to the league minimum either given his track record. Something in the middle (between $1MM and $1.25MM) now appears to be a more likely outcome at this time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Transactions: 07/20/18
Though free agency is basically over for a lot of NHL teams, minor league affiliates are still busy adding players from development camp or overseas. We’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.
- The Lehigh Valley Phantoms have signed Alex Krushelnyski, Michael Huntebrinker and Frank Hora to AHL contracts for 2018-19. Hora, 22, spent some time with the club last season and is trying to show that his solid two-way game from the OHL can translate to professional hockey. The former Kitchener Rangers captain had 14 points in 62 games for the ECHL Reading Royals last season.
- Cam Maclise has signed a one-year deal with the Manitoba Moose, after playing 67 games with them last season. Maclise, an undrafted forward out of the AJHL, played in the Canadian university circuit before jumping to the professional ranks in 2017.
Free Agent Profile: Toby Enstrom
While he was often banged up in his final few seasons in Winnipeg, defenseman Toby Enstrom has been a dependable blueliner over an 11-year NHL career. With a return to the Jets off the table, the 33-year-old is now looking for a new team for the 2018-19 season.
Last year, Enstrom dealt with multiple lower-body injuries and also was a scratch the odd time on a deep Jets back end. As a result, he wound up playing in just 43 regular season contests while suiting up 11 times in the playoffs. It was Winnipeg’s decision to sit him late in the postseason that played a role in him deciding to leave even before free agency began.
Although that certainly isn’t a great year with which to market himself, it should be noted that Enstrom has logged at least 20:51 per night in every season except for 2017-18. While he is probably better suited to play closer to 18 minutes per game at this stage of his career, the fact that he can move up and take on a bigger when called upon should be appealing to some teams.
While Enstrom is long removed from his days as a 50-point player, his mobility and puck-moving skills fit in well as the league transitions to quicker, more skilled defenders. That could still make him useful on a power play although he isn’t much of a shooting threat at this stage of his career. Enstrom isn’t a top-four player anymore but he could still upgrade the third pairing on a lot of teams.
Potential Suitors
At this stage of his career, it’s hard to imagine rebuilding teams looking at Enstrom and vice versa so let’s just focus on teams that have playoff aspirations.
In the West, Chicago has freed up some cap space and could stand to upgrade their defensive depth which would make them a logical fit for Enstrom. Nashville’s back end is full with three players on cheap contracts but they have more than enough cap flexibility to add a one-year upgrade. San Jose is who we originally projected Enstrom signing with as he would certainly serve as an improvement on their third pairing. If they’re unable to land a notable player via trade over the coming weeks or months, upgrading their depth by signing someone like Enstrom becomes a more feasible option.
Out East, Washington has some salary cap flexibility and could stand to use another veteran to help round out their back end. New Jersey has been surprisingly quiet this summer and after not being able to land much in free agency, shoring up their depth makes sense as a next way to turn. Meanwhile, Columbus lost a pair of left-shot defenders in free agency and while they have some lower-end replacements signed, Enstrom would represent an upgrade on their third pairing.
What will be interesting here is if Enstrom is willing to play a six/seven role where he is a healthy scratch at times which is what his role would be with some of these teams. He didn’t take too well to being in that spot in Winnipeg and if that’s still the case now, that could limit his options. With that in mind, returning home to play in Sweden is certainly on the table as well.
Projected Contract
Enstrom was ranked 37th on our Top 50 Free Agents listed with a projected one-year, $1.75MM contract. That represents a significant decrease from the $5.75MM he received in each of the last five seasons but is in line with what veteran third pairing players can get on the open market. While he has yet to sign thus far, it’s hard to envision the price going much lower knowing that he can simply choose to go back home to Sweden and sign a sizable contract there.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Derek Grant Agrees To Terms With Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins waited patiently and have found a bargain on the free agent market, agreeing to terms with Derek Grant on a one-year $650K contract. Grant was arguably the top forward left in free agency other than Rick Nash, who hasn’t made a decision on whether or not he’ll play next season.
The 28-year old center was given his first real opportunity to play substantial NHL minutes last season when the Anaheim Ducks were dealing with injuries to both Ryan Kesler and Ryan Getzlaf, and impressed with a stretch of 11 points in 15 games early in the season. Though his total would only reach 24 on the season in 66 games, he obviously did enough to earn himself another NHL deal. That will come in Pittsburgh where the Penguins have continued to collect center depth for the better part of a year, and who will now likely have to play several pivots on the wing.
Riley Sheahan re-signed with the team, Derick Brassard is expected to be healthy and Matt Cullen returned from his one-year stint with the Minnesota Wild, leaving the Penguins with more center options than they need going into the year. While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will obviously remain in their positions as one of the league’s top 1-2 punches, GM Jim Rutherford is obviously not willing to be left scrambling for backup options this time around. It’s also not clear where Grant will fit in exactly, given that the team was expected to provide Daniel Sprong, Zach Aston-Reese and Dominik Simon with full-time roles this season. That’s obviously not a given anymore, as the Penguins have as many as 16 forwards competing for 13 or 14 NHL jobs.
Josh Currie Signs With Edmonton Oilers
If you’ve been a fan of the Bakersfield Condors for the last few seasons, today is the day you’ve expected for a while. Josh Currie, who was playing for the Condors on an AHL contract, has signed his first NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers. Because Currie is already 25 he was not held to the entry-level system, and has instead signed a two-year deal with the team.
Undrafted, Currie is an incredible example of the ECHL development system as he worked his way up through the lower minor leagues. The former QMJHL star scored 104 points in his final year of junior but had to wait five more years to get an NHL deal. He’ll almost assuredly play in the minors this season, but has now created the possibility of an NHL call-up should the Oilers experience injury trouble.
The two-year deal will take him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020, but should give him quite the raise on his previous minor league deals.
Snapshots: Rangers, Wilson, Mitchell
The New York Rangers have hired David Oliver and Greg Brown as assistant coaches, rounding out David Quinn’s new staff in preparation for 2018-19. Lindy Ruff, a holdover from the last staff, will also be retained as an assistant. Oliver actually hired Quinn as head coach when working as GM of the Lake Erie Monsters, and even served as an assistant for him before the head coach was promoted to Colorado and then departed for Boston University.
Brown is coming in from Boston College where he has spent nearly a decade and a half, coaching elite collegiate talents including Rangers forwards Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes. Quinn should be quite familiar with Brown from their days coaching against each other at the college level, and will try to bring a new enthusiasm and style to the Rangers as they continue to rebuild their NHL organization.
- Tom Wilson is still without a contract, and according to Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post the Capitals preference is to work out a long-term deal with the power forward. The two sides have had “steady dialogue” and GM Brian MacLellan admitted that he’s the top priority right now. Even if a deal isn’t imminent, it’s clear that there will be something done to keep Wilson playing for the Capitals for some time. After a successful season with 35 points, Wilson really dominated in the playoffs for the Capitals and recorded 15 points in 21 games while making an impact physically on almost every shift. Selected in the first round six years ago with a hope that he’d turn into a premiere power forward in the NHL, the Capitals and Wilson are starting to see the results of his hard work.
- Torrey Mitchell has signed a one-year contract in Switzerland, leaving the NHL after a decade and 666 regular season games. The 33-year old forward recorded 11 points last season while suiting up for 60 games between the Montreal Canadiens and Los Angeles Kings, but may not have received much interest in free agency. He’ll join Lausanne HC for next season to hit the ice with other former NHL players like Joel Vermin, Dustin Jeffrey and Christoph Bertschy.
Artemi Panarin Meets With Columbus Blue Jackets, Still No Extension Progress
One of the most interesting emerging storylines of this offseason has been the future of Columbus Blue Jackets forward Artemi Panarin. The 26-year old forward told the team he was not interested in signing a long-term extension right away, instead needing some time to decide where he wants play and live for the next several years. Today, Panarin met with Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen in Nice, France to discuss the situation, but didn’t come out with a resolution. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic spoke with Panarin’s agent Dan Milstein after the meeting, who told him there was still “no contract progress at this time.” Igor Eronko of Sport-Express was also told that Panarin is still not willing to sign a long-term deal right now, despite the 45-minute meeting.
Panarin’s contract talks are such a big story in the NHL because there are some who believe the Blue Jackets would consider trading their superstar if they can’t get the security of an extension over the next few months. If it becomes clear that he is going to head to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, there is likely an urgency to receive something of value for him before long. The recent departure of John Tavares from New York likely only strengthens the idea of trading Panarin, as the Islanders weren’t able to cash in on their expiring asset, believing that he would eventually re-sign. A Panarin trade would demand a huge return for the Blue Jackets after another outstanding season in which he recorded 82 points in 81 games and found some nice chemistry with Pierre-Luc Dubois.
To be clear, there is no guarantee that Panarin won’t eventually sign with the Blue Jackets. Milstein has made it clear in the past that his client loves the Columbus organization and has been treated extremely well during his time there, but just isn’t currently willing to commit to living there for the next huge chunk of his career. That’s his right as a pending unrestricted free agent, and should he hit the market he’ll have no shortage of suitors willing to spend big on him. Panarin is a legitimate offensive superstar, able to create scoring almost at will and proved this season that he can drive a line himself. Just as Tavares was a huge boost for the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer, Panarin could vault almost any playoff team into serious contender status. The fact is that he does that too for the Blue Jackets, making it an incredibly tough decision for Kekalainen as his team attempts to contend for the Stanley Cup this season.