Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Will Look Much Different Next Season
While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.
However, it’s not that simple. As Joe Smith of The Athletic writes, the Bolts will have to undergo a major makeover on their blue line. Tampa Bay is already committed to over $73MM for 16 players next season. That list includes top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, as well as most core forwards like Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller, and Yanni Gourde and starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, it does not include half of the eight defensemen used regularly by the Lightning this season: Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, and Jan Rutta. More importantly, it also doesn’t include sophomore breakout forward Brayden Point. Even with the salary cap expected to climb north of $80MM this off-season, re-signing Point will eat up most of that space and extending fellow RFA forwards Cedric Paquette and Adam Erne will add up as well. Without a considerable cap dump, it would seem re-signing even one of those UFA defensemen, nevertheless most of them, will be incredibly difficult.
So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahan is expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killorn all have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.
Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Foote will also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.
The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.
Andreas Johnsson Turned Down Extension Offers At Deadline
The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into quite the summer in terms of contract negotiations, with Mitch Marner set to be “priority one” over the next few months. Beyond their young star though there are several other players who need new deals including Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. The latter of the two is eligible for arbitration since he is already 24 years old, and apparently has already turned down multi-year extension offers from the Maple Leafs. Darren Dreger was on TSN radio this morning speaking about the cap crunch that Toronto will be facing, and indicated that the team had offered Johnsson a two-year deal worth $4.2MM (total) and a four-year deal worth $10.4MM at the trade deadline.
Johnsson, the Calder Cup MVP in 2018 with the Toronto Marlies, had an excellent rookie season with the Maple Leafs and recorded 20 goals and 43 points in 73 games. The speedy left winger played on a line with Auston Matthews for much of the season and throughout the playoffs, and showed he could keep up and score timely goals for the club. That kind of depth is exactly what the team will need if they want to finally get over the hump and advance to the second round of the playoffs, but with Matthews, John Tavares and Marner taking up something around $30MM moving forward the team will have to decide carefully how to spend their finances.
If Johnsson does go to arbitration he would be able to receive a one or two year deal, and potentially could earn more than the $2.1-2.6MM average annual value offered by the Maple Leafs at the deadline. That would get him even closer to unrestricted free agency—currently scheduled for the summer of 2022—while also giving him the chance to prove he can take another step offensively and deserve an even bigger payday.
There’s no reason to think that their is any animosity between the two sides, in fact it simply may have been a case of not wanting to negotiate during the season. But the Maple Leafs have some tough decisions to make this offseason on how to build their roster around the core of stars, given the lack of playoff success so far.
Snapshots: KHL, Capitals, Lindholm
It appears as though a pair of defenders are set to return to the KHL after uninspiring seasons in the NHL, as multiple reports including Darren Dreger of TSN and Pekka Jalonen of Iltalehti have noted that Igor Ozhiganov and Bogdan Kiselevich are likely headed back to Russia. Both players will see their one-year contracts expire on July 1st and were sitting in the press box by the end of the season.
Of note, Ozhiganov is actually scheduled to become a restricted free agent meaning the Toronto Maple Leafs could retain his rights if they issue a qualifying offer. The team though didn’t play him much down the stretch or at all in the playoffs, as Jake Muzzin‘s arrival pushed him out of the lineup. Even with Toronto’s lack of right-handed options, there didn’t seem to be a fit between head coach Mike Babcock and Ozhiganov, who averaged just 14 minutes a night through his 53 games. Kiselevich was acquired by the Winnipeg Jets at the deadline to give them a bit of depth for a long playoff run, but never actually suited up with his new team. In 32 games for the Florida Panthers, he recorded eight points.
- The Washington Capitals were pushed right up against the cap all season, and it’ll cost them next year. Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post points out that the Capitals will face a $1.15MM overage penalty against next year’s cap because of the performance bonuses paid out to Brooks Orpik, Jakub Vrana and Jonas Siegenthaler. While paying out performance bonuses is normally a good thing that means players exceeded expectations, it will make it tough on the Capitals who are going to be cap-strapped next season. The team needs to sign Andre Burakovsky and Vrana to new deals as restricted free agents and may have to let Brett Connolly walk into unrestricted free agency as he deserves a big raise after his first 20-goal season. There are obviously a lot of moving parts to keep an eye on in Washington.
- Team Sweden looked like it might need a bit more firepower up front for the 2019 IIHF World Championship when announcing their preliminary roster, and they’re getting a bit of help from the Calgary Flames. Elias Lindholm will be joining the team according to Jonatan Lindquist of Viasat, giving them another top scoring option for the tournament. Lindholm reached new heights this season while playing with Calgary, scoring 27 goals and 78 points in a breakout performance. The 24-year old was the fifth-overall pick from 2013 but had previously failed to record more than 16 goals or 45 points in a single season.
William Karlsson Looking For Long-Term Contract
The Vegas Golden Knights came into existence last season with almost no long-term commitments. It was obvious from their expansion draft strategy that they were after as much flexibility as possible, and selected several players with expiring deals. Now just two seasons into their history that has completely changed, with long-term extensions handed out like candy for their core pieces. Mark Stone, Reilly Smith, Jon Marchessault, Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch, Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Nate Schmidt and Marc-Andre Fleury are all signed through at least 2021-22, and there soon could be another name to add to that group.
William Karlsson, the breakout star of the Golden Knights’ inaugural season, is scheduled to be a restricted free agent for the final time this summer and is arbitration eligible once again. Karlsson told David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he had some preliminary talks with the team before the playoffs and that he hopes to sign a long-term deal with Vegas. If Karlsson went to arbitration the process would only be able to award him a one-year contract, taking him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020.
There were some who expected the Golden Knights to lock up Karlsson last summer, but their decision to wait seems to have paid off. The 26-year old forward could not replicate the 43-goal campaign he had in 2017-18, and finished with just 24 goals and 56 points this season. While that was still good enough for second on the team in scoring, Karlsson is in a much different place when heading into negotiations.
It was always expected that Karlsson would experience some regression, given the mind-boggling 23.4% shooting percentage he enjoyed in 2017-18. His previous high for goals had been just nine in a full season, but a move to Vegas has turned him into a much more effective offensive player. He also won the Lady Byng award last year, and received votes for both the Selke and Hart trophies.
That outstanding season turned into a one-year $5.25MM contract for Karlsson, a contract that will have an interesting effect on his next deal. UFA seasons usually cost more to buy out in long-term deals, meaning any multi-year contract will be an expensive addition to the Vegas salary structure. How that can fit in isn’t totally clear, given the some $82MM that the team has already committed to next year. That total doesn’t include new deals for Nikita Gusev or Jimmy Schuldt either, though it’s not clear how expensive they will be after burning through their entry-level deals without really playing.
The Golden Knights have quickly put themselves in a tricky financial situation, and one that may result in the team moving out a player or two as a cap casualty. It would have been difficult to see that coming a few days after the draft, but GM George McPhee has been aggressive in acquiring the talent to make his team a Stanley Cup contender right away.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Jordan Weal Interested In Staying With Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens have already re-signed two of their trade deadline additions, inking short extensions with both Nate Thompson and Christian Folin in recent days. At least one more of their expiring contracts could stay, as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that there have been preliminary discussions between the Canadiens and the representatives for Jordan Weal. LeBrun adds that Weal has interest in staying with the Canadiens.
Weal, 27, was acquired on deadline day in exchange for Michael Chaput and quickly found a fit with Montreal. He recorded 10 points in 16 games with the team and was given more responsibility and ice time than ever before in his career. The talented forward is actually approaching unrestricted free agency for the second time despite being relatively young, as he was heading for Group VI status in the summer of 2017 before inking a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers in late June. That deal was predicated on a hot streak over the last few weeks of the 2016-17 season, not unlike the stretch that Weal just went through with Montreal.
Even with his relatively small NHL resume—Weal has only suited up 169 times and never played more than 69 games in a single season—there seemed to be a great fit in Montreal for the third round pick. There’s a good chance he could find a full-time role next to some of the team’s other talented young forwards, giving him a chance to really show what he can do at the highest level. The Canadiens have plenty of cap space, but still need to make smart decisions with it and not fill their roster with overpriced talent. There’s little chance that Weal can command huge numbers, making him a potential low-risk, high-reward play for the team.
The Dallas Stars’ Mats Zuccarello Dilemma
Mats Zuccarello‘s start with the Dallas Stars could not have gone worse. He was injured in his first game with the team after being acquired at the trade deadline and missed all but one of the remaining regular season games. One of two conditional picks that went back to the New York Rangers had the possibility of being upgraded if Zuccarello worked out well enough in Dallas to earn a contract extension. Yet, heading into the playoffs, few were likely looking at Zuccarello as a long-term piece in Dallas following that unfortunate start.
That all changed in the first round, as Zuccarello came up big with three clutch goals and looked like a natural fit with the Stars. His efforts helped to lead Dallas to an upset of the Nashville Predators and on to the second round. All of a sudden, Zuccarello has the support of his teammates and the fan base and indeed looks like he may be more than just a rental. But, as the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes, Dallas’ leadership faces a tough decision in that regard. Brooks issues a reminder that if the Stars re-sign Zuccarello, they will give up a first-round pick to the New York Rangers in 2020 instead of the third-rounder initially transferred in the deal. The Stars are already at risk of losing their 2019 first-rounder, which goes to New York in place of their second-rounder if the team reaches the Western Conference Final with Zuccarello playing in at least half of those games. If Dallas defeats the St. Louis Blues, with Zuccarello continuing to be an impact player, would they really surrender two straight top picks to keep the veteran winger in town?
Zuccarello is set to turn 32 prior to next season and his point totals have dropped in each of the past three seasons. Dallas stands little chance of getting great value on a new contract for the veteran forward. Yet, even on a downward trajectory, Zuccarello is still a top-ten free agent winger. The Stars already have him in the building and he is building chemistry and familiarity with their core. It could be a mutually beneficial scenario for both sides and the Norwegian scorer could be amenable to staying with the Stars at a reasonable term and rate. If Dallas opts to let him walk instead, they stand a decent chance of missing out on any of the better targets. Is that a gamble worth keeping a first-round pick? There are far more factors yet to be determined, but the Zuccarello situation will continue to be a lingering topic during Dallas’ current postseason run.
Winnipeg Jets Face Big Questions After Early Exit
The Winnipeg Jets were knocked out of the playoffs last night by an impressive St. Louis Blues group, and now must face the harsh reality of another season wasted. The Jets will not be happy with just making the playoffs in a season where many had them as a Stanley Cup contender, and will have plenty of questions surrounding the organization as the offseason begins.
Is Paul Maurice the right man for the job?
There’s no doubt that Paul Maurice is a good coach. The Jets’ head man has been behind NHL benches for most of his professional life, first taking the reins of the Hartford Whalers in 1995 when he was just 29 years old. His 695 wins put him seventh all-time among NHL coaches, behind only Joel Quenneville and Barry Trotz among those active. He’s ahead of names like Mike Babcock, John Tortorella and Claude Julien.
For all his regular season success though, Maurice has plenty of failure on his resume too. His teams have finished below .500 in a full season six times, and his overall record in the playoffs is 36-44. The team found some success last season as they made it all the way to the Western Conference Final, but that was just the third time in his entire NHL career that Maurice had made it past the second round of the playoffs. Now with another disappointing exit, the coaching seat in Winnipeg is sure to feel warm over the next few weeks and months.
How much are they willing to commit to Laine, Connor and Trouba?
Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Jacob Trouba are all set to become restricted free agents this summer, and should all command huge dollar figures and term. Each one of them is a potential star at his position, but each also comes with some real red flags. Trouba’s are perhaps the easiest to see after his previous tough negotiations and hesitancy to commit long-term to the Jets. The 25-year old defenseman has wanted to be “the guy” on the right side, a position that the Jets are deep at with Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers among others.
Laine has had his ups and downs all season, going through drastic slumps while also still showing why he is a potential superstar. While he hit the 30-goal threshold for the third time in his three-year career, he also had his lowest point total (50) and was a -24 on the year. His negotiation will be particularly interesting to see if the two sides even want to ink a long-term deal after such a disappointing year.
Connor meanwhile led all Jets forwards in scoring during the playoffs and has developed into a key cog on offense. The biggest question surrounding his negotiation will be as a direct comparison to Laine. Doesn’t the 22-year old former Michigan star deserve more money after the year he just completed? How will the Jets afford to pay both of them, while also watching an extension kick in for Blake Wheeler raising his cap hit to $8.25MM. Is that too much money to spend on the wings?
What about the unrestricted free agents?
If those three RFAs weren’t enough, the Jets also have some important unrestricted free agents to worry about, starting with Myers. The hulking defenseman is set to hit the open market in July and could arguably be the best blue line option available, depending on how things go with Erik Karlsson. While he had another strong season for the team, if they are looking to shake things up perhaps they decide not to bring him back and instead install one of their younger defensemen like Sami Niku on a full-time basis.
There is also Kevin Hayes, whose upcoming free agency leads to another question about the Jets. How are they going to fill that second line center role, after using rentals in each of the last two years? Hayes was acquired for a first-round pick this season after the team spent the same on Paul Stastny the year before, only to see both fail to bring them a Stanley Cup. Bryan Little is still under contract for five more years at a $5.29MM cap hit, but GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has obviously not been content with him in the middle of the second unit.
Several Liiga Champions Looking To Make NHL Jump
Finland’s Liiga had their own version of the Tampa Bay Lightning this season, only one that has gotten the job done in the playoffs thus far. Karpat, the reigning Liiga champion, has been unstoppable all season long in pursuit of a title defense. Building off the success of their 2017-18 campaign, the team was the regular season champion by 29 points over the next-best competitor and finished with a +106 goal differential while just one other team in the league topped +27. Through the first two rounds of the postseason, Karpat has needed just ten games to dispatch their opponents, all while allowing just 13 goals against. The Liiga Final begins today, as Karpat takes on the No. 5-seeded HPK, a team that they are not expected to have much trouble with.
Given their dominant regular season and early playoff success, it is hard to make a case that Karpat is not undoubtedly the Liiga’s best team this season, regardless of how the final turns out. As usual, the best players on the best team in a major European league are garnering a fair amount of attention. Finnish news source Ilta Sanomat reports that upwards of seven of Karpat’s veteran core players could leave the team for greener pastures. Of that group, the reporter indicates that leading scorer Ville Leskinen and top defensive pair Teemu Kivihalme and Jani Hakanpaa are almost certainly headed to the NHL. The terrific goalie tandem of Veini Vehvilainen and NHL veteran Jussi Rynnas could also be headed to North America. Not mentioned are top NHL prospects Aleksi Heponiemi and Rasmus Kupari, who are both considered likely to join their drafted clubs.
Leskinen, 25, is the big name included on this list as a highly-sought after free agent scorer. An undrafted product who has played in the Karpat system for his entire life, Leskinen’s production has increased exponentially over each of the past few seasons. This year, he tied for the Liiga scoring title and was one of just three qualifying players to finish in the point-per-game range with 57 points in 58 games. He also finished second overall in the league with 29 goals and a +31 rating. He has since added a league-leading five goals in the playoffs to go along with six assists through just ten games. A right-shot winger with decent size and great hands, Leskinen has proven that he can be a star in the Liiga, but is out to show that he can also make an impact in the NHL. Expect many teams to be willing to give him that chance. At 25 years old, Leskinen is still within the laws of the entry-level system, meaning teams will have to find ways other than salary to convince the talented Finn to join them.
Both Kivihalme and Hakanpaa are former NHL prospects who never signed with their teams, but are reportedly going to be in the league after all with deals “in the final stages”. Kivihalme, 23, was curious case due to his commitment to North American hockey. The puck-moving defender spent much of his childhood in Minnesota and even has American citizenship. After a strong high school career, Kivihalme was drafted by the Nashville Predators in 2013 and eventually went on to play for Colorado College. However, he did not complete his NCAA eligibility, opting instead to turn pro in Finland after three years. The Predators let his draft rights expire, so Kivihalme is now very much a free agent who should draw considerable interest as Karpat’s top defenseman. Hakanpaa has a very different game and very different story from his pair mate. The 6’5″, 207 lb. 27-year-old was a fourth-round pick of the St. Louis Blues out of the Finnish junior ranks all the way back in 2010. While he never earned a contract from the team, he appeared at several camps, played in the preseason, and spent parts of three seasons with their AHL affiliates. At the end of the day, the opportunity wasn’t there and Hakanpaa returned to Finland. The solid defensive blue liner has had an awakening offensively over the past two seasons and will be returning to North America as a far more well-rounded product.
Of everyone listed in the report, it is fair to be skeptical of the thought of Rynnas returning to the NHL. Despite incredible numbers in the Liiga this season, they were second only to Vehvilainen, who got the bulk of the starts. It may be a hard sell for the 31-year-old, who has already spent four seasons in North America with the Toronto Maple Leafs’ and Dallas Stars’ organizations, to say that he is ready to try again after being a backup in Europe. Perhaps there is an opportunity – Rynnas did have some good AHL seasons – but more likely than not, he will wait to see what happens with Vehvilainen and may prefer to stay with Karpat as the replacement starter.
As for their other top teammates, their immediate NHL futures are largely predetermined. As most know, Kupari and Heponiemi are recent high draft picks and considered top prospects by their organizations. Kupari was the first-round pick of the Los Angeles Kings last year and played on loan with Karpat this year after signing with L.A. The Kings could desperately use an injection of youthful talent, which gives Kupari strong odds of cracking the roster out of camp. Heponiemi was a second-round selection of the Florida Panthers in 2017 who returned to his native Finland this year after two strong seasons with the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos. One of the best players at the World Juniors this winter, Heponiemi is definitely ready for the NHL and the Panthers could use the affordable production as they project to be low on cap space after a busy summer. What some might not realize is that starting goalie Vehvilainen is also NHL property. Vehvilainen, 22, was drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets just last year as an overage prospect. Yet, the sixth-rounder has already proven to have been a smart gamble by the team. Vehvilainen led the Liiga with a .933 save percentage and 1.58 GAA this year, his second straight season of finishing in the top three in both categories. He has also played better in the postseason both years, which is always a plus for a goaltender. The Ilta Sanomat report claims that Vehvilainen will join Columbus if he is at least guaranteed a top-three spot on the depth chart next season. With Sergei Bobrovsky likely to leave, Vehvilainen could join existing keepers Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins as an inexperienced, but high-upside unit next season.
Karpat was an extremely talented team this season and last with several great core players. It will certainly be worth watching how those former teammates perform in the NHL in the future.
Canadiens Notes: Drouin, Okulov, Free Agency
One of the underlying reasons why the Montreal Canadiens were unable to hold on to a wild card spot down the stretch was the poor play of one of their best players, Jonathan Drouin. Speaking with Alexis Belanger-Champagne of La Presse, Drouin acknowledged that his play suffered when it matter most in the final games of the season. He even owned his decreased ice time, understanding that head coach Claude Julien needed productive, confident players on the ice and he was playing frustrated and failing to find results. Drouin finished the season with 53 points in 81 games, but only contributed one goal and two assists in Montreal’s final 18 games. Yet, for all of his late-season struggles, Drouin does not expect to be shopped this off-season. The 24-year-old forward did match a career-high in points this year and early in the season was on pace to shatter all previous personal marks. Drouin knows that he dropped the ball, but tells Belanger-Champagne that he is happy with the Canadiens and knows he can be a difference-maker once again next season and beyond. GM Marc Bergevin seems to agree. Bergevin told La Presse that Drouin showed maturity with how he handled his poor play and that he understands his role on the team. Bergevin expects the young scorer to “take another step forward next year.” At $5.5MM for four more years, Drouin can still be a bargain for the Habs and certainly a dependable top-six forward. Bergevin is not one to overreact, so expect Drouin to be back in the bleu, blanc, et rougue next year.
- Drouin’s return doesn’t mean that the Canadiens won’t try to address their offense this summer. In fact, the team already has their sights set on an import out of Russia. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Montreal is “high” on KHL forward Konstantin Okulov. Okulov, 24, is currently playing in the Gagarin Cup Final with CSKA Moscow and his breakout regular season has extended into the postseason. The skilled forward has 12 points in 15 playoff games following a career-high 20 goals and 31 points in 48 regular season games. The Habs would like to see if his high-powered game can translate to the NHL. Unfortunately, Friedman also notes that Okulov is under contract for one more year with CSKA and may not be available to Montreal this off-season. Unless he both wants and is granted a release from his contract, the Canadiens may need to keep scouting for another year.
- As for attracting free agents already in the NHL, The Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey opines that the Canadiens may have a tough time luring top names to Montreal this summer despite ample cap space. It doesn’t have anything to do with team personnel, either. Hickey notes that taxes and cost of living are among the negatives of making the move to Montreal and claims that has deterred free agents in recent years. However, Hickey adds that this might not be a bad things, as Bergevin’s track record of late has been better with trades than it has been with signings. The Habs will undoubtedly still add a few free agents, but in need of a veteran backup goalie, a top-four defenseman, and a top-six forward, the team will likely have to tackle the trade market to address at least one of those holes.
Jeff Carter Plans To Play Out Current Contract
The Los Angeles Kings’ disappointing 2018-19 season is now behind them and they are looking ahead to a fresh start next season. Part of improving the optimism around the team heading into next year would be opening up some salary cap space, as the Kings currently have one of the highest payrolls already committed to 2019-20 with the NHL off-season still to come. L.A. showed this season that their current core doesn’t have what it takes to be a contender, so moving out an expensive veteran piece to open up room to add in free agency and trades or at least give some promising young prospects an increased role is certainly in their plans.
One of the easiest ways that the team could have seen a significant drop-off in salary would have been if veteran center Jeff Carter had opted to retire, as many fans and local media members have (wishfully) speculated. Carter, who has three years remaining on his contract at a $5.27MM AAV, turned 34 this season and celebrated with the worst season of his career. Carter – who missed considerable time due to injury in 2017-18, but was still close to a point-per-game player – managed to record only 33 points in 76 games this year, including a career-worst 13 goals and -20 rating. While the situation was not helped any by the Kings’ overall lack of production, Carter certainly showed signs of his age and was easily the worst value player on the roster. As a result, there was hope by some that he may simply retire and walk away from his remaining money.
Don’t count on it, writes The Athletic’s Josh Cooper. After sitting down with Carter, Cooper relays that not only did he deny all retirement rumors, but stated that he hopes to play out the remaining three years of his contract (and collect his $7MM left in salary). He hopes that he can do just that with L.A., as well. Carter lacks any trade protection in his current contract, so he knows that he could be moved, but would not prefer it. “I want to be an L.A. King”, the respected veteran told Cooper, “I want to help change things around here.”
Unfortunately, the team may not be so eager to continue the relationship. The cap space alone is an issue, but Cooper also cites the team’s impressive prospect depth down the middle as a reason why Carter is viewed as expendable. Carter, who is 20 games away from 1,000 in his career, is still a valuable asset for his experience and versatility, but Cooper acknowledges that he is a major candidate to be on the move this summer, regardless.
A trade is certainly possible and there would be a market for Carters’ services. However, it would not be a market that would net the Kings anything of value and could very well still cost them against the salary cap with either retained salary or another expensive contract in return. Cooper even relays word from another NHL executive that the market value for Carter is “quite low” right now. One has to wonder if trading Carter for actual value might be easier if GM Rob Blake waits until the next trade deadline and hope he re-establishes his ability in that time.
Cooper doubts that a beneficial deal to move Carter can be found, at least this off-season, so could a buyout be a better option? Such a decision does not offer much cap relief; Carter would still count for more than $3MM next year and more than $4MM in the two years prior, followed by another three years at $778K. In fact, Cooper calls Carter the “least attractive candidate” to be bought out due to the structure of his remaining contract. With the lack of savings, L.A. would be better off holding on to Carter and hoping he can rebound.
For now, there doesn’t seem to be an easy way to get Carter’s contract off the books. Perhaps Kings fans can be content in knowing that Carter is still determined to play and help the team in their rebuild. They may have no choice other than hoping the 700+-point player can return to form, as no alternative solutions seem to be on the horizon. Carter has three years left on his contract and plans to see it through – expect those three seasons to be with L.A. until the status quo changes for the veteran forward.