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Chicago’s Impending Struggle To Be Cap Compliant

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Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has had the uncanny ability for years now to somehow find a way to squeeze his uber-talented rosters under the NHL salary cap. Bowman’s willingness to trade or let walk valued players with high-priced contracts only to replace them to the same effect with affordable veterans and young players has enabled the team to become the NHL’s dynasty franchise over the last decade. However, heading into 2017-18, has Bowman finally put himself in a position that he can’t get out of?

The NHL’s salary cap limit for next season has not yet been decided, but early indications are that it could remain flat or rise only a minimal amount. Based on 2016-17’s $73MM ceiling, the Chicago Blackhawks would be more than $4.5MM over the cap if the season started today (via CapFriendly). That total includes a total of 13 forwards, seven defenseman, and two goalies, ten of which will make under $1MM next season. What it doesn’t include is new contracts for restricted free agents Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco, the possibility of bringing back veteran defenseman Brian Campbell, or the Blackhawk’s major need for a backup goalie, which will only off-set the cap by Jeff Glass’ $600K contract.

Of course, Chicago does have some assistance this off-season in the form of the Expansion Draft, in which they will lose someone’s cap hit. The team certainly hopes that that cap hit is from Marcus Kruger. Kruger has played an important role for the Blackhawks as a two-way specialist and reliable third-line center, but at over $3MM annually, he’s just not affordable. Rumor has it that the team is willing to move picks and players if it means that the Vegas Golden Knights will select Kruger, but there is no guarantee that Vegas will take the bait. Defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk has been offered up as a companion to Kruger for the Knights, which at $825K for a top-four defenseman would be a major loss for Chicago. However, if the Blackhawks want to protect forwards like Ryan Hartman or Richard Panik in the Expansion Draft, they currently would have no choice but to expose van Riemsdyk. Thus, the team really lacks the leverage to command any deal where the Knights take Kruger to get van Riemsdyk and such a deal may not even come to fruition. Chicago will do all it can, expansion-wise or not, to move Kruger, but it’s far from a done deal.

Even if they are successful in moving Kruger, the Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus opines that this may not be enough if the cap doesn’t go up significantly; and he’s not alone. Lazerus states that there is rampant speculation that the team may be forced to move a bigger name than Kruger to become cap compliant. Kruger’s salary would (currently) still leave the Blackhawks in the red and even he and van Riemsdyk wouldn’t do it. Bowman could use roster management to get under, but it would leave the team with little to no flexibility in the free agent market and even for in-season call-ups and demotions. Instead, one of Chicago’s core players might need to move. Lazerus knows that neither Brent Seabrook or Artem Anisimov have been asked to waive their No-Movement clauses to be dealt elsewhere and it’s hard to imagine the team trading many of their other No-Movement players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, or Corey Crawford. Marian Hossa may as well be immovable as well, given that the 38-year-old has four years left on his contract at $5.275MM per. That leaves defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who Lazerus believes could very well end up on the move. Hjalmarsson is the only high-priced player on the roster without a true No-Movement clause, as he has a limited No-Trade in which he can submit a 10-team list of destinations. This gives the team some flexibility to make a move they couldn’t with the others barring a waiver. Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit, which alone is insufficient, but in addition to Kruger and possibly others would get the Blackhawks where they need to be.

If it potentially takes Hjalmarsson, Kruger, and van Riemsdyk – two of Chicago’s top-four defenseman and a key penalty killer – along with goalie Scott Darling, already a cap casualty this off-season, to get under the salary cap for next season, is Bowman’s system really still working? Perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, Chicago is hoping for an unexpected bump in the salary cap for 2017-18. If that doesn’t happen, the Expansion Draft could just be the beginning of the Blackhawk’s shedding of key players this summer.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

Keith Yandle, Dion Phaneuf Asked To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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With the Expansion Draft fast approaching, many players are expected to be approached themselves about waiving the No-Movement clauses attached to their contracts as their teams look to strategically navigate the strict expansion process. In his weekly “30 Thoughts” article posted this afternoon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman states that he has heard that two big-name defenseman, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle, have already been asked for such a waiver by their respective teams.

The news on Phaneuf is not unexepected; in fact many people have suspected all season long that the Ottawa Senators may ask the veteran to waive his No-Movement clause. The Senators have too much forward depth to apply the eight-skater protection scheme for the Expansion Draft and must instead use the 7-3 scheme. Thus, only three Ottawa defenseman can be protected. All-world blue liner Erik Karlsson is an obvious lock and presumably the other two spots would go to shutdown two-way man Marc Methot and young Cody Ceci if Phaneuf does choose to waive. If he doesn’t, the Sens would face a difficult choice between the two or would be forced into striking a trade over the next week. Phaneuf’s situation is interesting in that he actually outscored Ceci and Methot combined in 2016-17 and he has was more or less a complete success in his first full season in Ottawa, capped off by a strong playoff. The ideal scenario for Ottawa is to retain all three defenseman, but after the season that Phaneuf had, as well as his status as a well-known player, it could entice the Golden Knights and a waiver could mean the Senators end up losing their second-best defenseman. On the other hand, exposing Ceci, and to some extent Methot, would almost ensure losing either of them as well.

The situation with Yandle is a much bigger story. The Florida Panthers acquired Yandle’s negotiating rights from the New York Rangers around this time last year and inked him to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract. Yandle bypassed free agency and potentially more money to become the long-term partner of Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad and, at age 30, seemed poised to be a Panther for the rest of his career. Now it seems that might not be true. After just one year, Florida appears open to moving on from Yandle. The Panthers face a difficult expansion scenario on defense with, like the Senators, too many promising forwards to protect four defenseman. Even if they could, Florida would really like to protect five: Ekblad, Yandle, Jason Demers, another 2016 free agency splurge, and young play-makers Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. All five defenseman meet the number of games needed (40 this past season or 70 over the past two seasons) to qualify for the one-defenseman exposure quota, but Petrovic and Pysyk are impending restricted free agents and the other half of the exposure criteria is term remaining on a contract. Thus, only Ekblad, Yandle, or Demers could fill the quota, unless Petrovic, Pysyk, or Jakub Kindl were re-signed just to be exposed. With Ekblad untouchable and Yandle having a No-Movement clause, at this time Demers is the only choice to be the sacrificial lamb. Vegas will surely have some interest in the 28-year-old righty, whether it be to lead their own defense or to flip to another suitor. However, by asking Yandle to waive his clause, it appears that Florida is instead leaning toward keeping Demers to themselves. Why? In his first season with Florida, Yandle did play in all 82 games and recorded 41 points, a good season by any measure, but it was in fact the worst production of any full season to date for the 11-year veteran. The Panthers may be worried that, at 30-years-old, Yandle is already on the decline, while Demers and his cap hit of nearly $2MM less for four more years may be a better investment. It will be interesting to see whether Yandle indeed waives his clause or not, but make no mistake: like Demers, if Yandle is exposed he will be an easy choice for Vegas to select to either highlight their blue line or trade to a contender.

Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

While the regular season was a strong one for Chicago, it failed to translate into postseason success as the Blackhawks were swept at the hands of the Predators.  GM Stan Bowman has promised change, some of which will come through expansion.  Here’s a closer look at their situation when it comes to the upcoming draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artem Anisimov (NMC), Ryan Hartman, Marian Hossa (NMC), Tomas Jurco, Patrick Kane (NMC), Marcus Kruger, Michael Latta, Richard Panik, Dennis Rasmussen, Jonathan Toews (NMC), Jordin Tootoo

Defense:

Niklas Hjalmarsson (NMC), Duncan Keith (NMC), Ville Pokka, Michal Rozsival, Brent Seabrook (NMC), Viktor Svedberg, Trevor van Riemsdyk

Goaltenders:

Corey Crawford (NMC), Jeff Glass

Notable Exemptions

D Gustav Forsling, F John Hayden, F Vinnie Hinostroza, D Michal Kempny, F Tanner Kero, F Artemi Panarin, D Jan Rutta, F Nick Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Based on earlier reports, their strategy seems to revolve around van Riemsdyk.  The belief is that if the Golden Knights are willing to take Kruger and his $3.083MM cap hit off their hands in a trade, they’ll leave the blueliner available to be selected in the draft.  With three rearguards carrying no-move clauses though, there isn’t much of a real protection threat to Vegas here.  Protecting van Riemsdyk would require a switch to protecting just eight skaters which would open up an intriguing option up front for the Golden Knights.

Jan 21, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk (57) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsWith the recent re-signing of Kempny as well as the addition of Rutta, the Blackhawks are certainly hedging against losing van Riemsdyk.  With Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya expected to depart, the 25 year old becomes a candidate for a bigger role next season which would make his departure tough to swallow.  That could be lessened by getting Kruger’s contract off the books but is leaving van Riemsdyk unprotected enough of a sweetener by itself?  On the surface it may seem like it but that may not be the case.

If the discussed deal falls through and Chicago opts to go with protecting eight skaters to keep van Riemsdyk away from Vegas, the Golden Knights would likely happily snap up Hartman and not have to take on Kruger’s contract.  That seems like an even worse outcome for the Blackhawks who would lose a promising young forward and still be in trouble when it comes to the salary cap.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Blackhawks had to add something else to the rumored trade to get it done.

That presents Bowman with another option he’ll have to consider – trade van Riemsdyk before expansion.  While that would mean that their efforts to move Kruger will have fallen through, they would at least stand to get some value back for their blueliner while going with a 7/3/1 scheme would result in them not losing anyone of much consequence to Vegas.  There are a few ways this could go and van Riemsdyk is at the core of all of them.

Up front, there aren’t a lot of decisions to really be made thanks to the four no-move clauses.  Hartman and the recently-extended Panik would stand to snap up the fifth and sixth slots with a handful of players vying for the last one.

Considering their cap situation, it’s safe to suggest Kruger will be left unprotected no matter what.  Tootoo was in and out of the lineup this past season and there’s a good case to be made that his extension was in part to ensure that they had enough forwards to meet the 40/70 exposure requirements.

Mar 29, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Blackhawks left wing Tomas Jurco (13) caries the puck up ice against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at the PPG PAINTS Arena. Chicago won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsThat leaves Jurco and Rasmussen for the last spot.  Jurco is coming off two straight disappointing seasons and failed to produce with Chicago after being acquired.  However, at 24 years of age, there’s still hope that he could turn it around.  Rasmussen played more of a regular role after getting into 68 games but did so almost exclusively in a fourth line depth role.  While he played more than Jurco, it’s conceivable that Bowman and Chicago would use their last spot on potential upside before a depth checker.

If the Blackhawks wanted to protect both, they could conceivably ask Hossa to waive his no-move clause.  His contract and age would make him a safe bet to pass through.  However, teams appear to be very hesitant to approach their veterans about doing so; as a result, this is a very unlikely scenario.

Chicago doesn’t have many unrestricted free agents and among them, none would likely be appealing to Vegas GM George McPhee.  Campbell and Oduya are the best ones available and neither of them should interest an expansion team, especially since plenty of younger blueliners will be made available to them from other teams.

Projected Protection List

F Artem Anisimov (NMC)
F Ryan Hartman
F Marian Hossa (NMC)
F Tomas Jurco
F Patrick Kane (NMC)
F Richard Panik
F Jonathan Toews (NMC)

D Niklas Hjalmarsson (NMC)
D Duncan Keith (NMC)
D Brent Seabrook (NMC)

G Corey Crawford (NMC)

Assuming that Bowman and McPhee agree on the rumored deal that would send Kruger to the Golden Knights with van Riemsdyk left unprotected, this could be one of the less-intriguing teams to watch when it comes to expansion.  If it doesn’t happen though, then they’ll be worth keeping an eye on.  Do they protect van Riemsdyk anyways and switch to the eight skater scheme?  Do they leave him unprotected outright?  Do they trade him beforehand?  Considering how much Chicago’s situation seems to revolve around him, their expansion situation could more or less be termed ‘van Riemsdyk watch’.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Flames Perspective On Expansion Draft

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Calgary Flames GM Brad Treviling spoke to Sportsnet 960 radio yesterday and opined about how the team is addressing the expansion draft. At the outset, Treviling acknowledges that the Flames—alongside 20 or so teams—do not have any major expansion issues, and only those teams with potential significant losses are the focus of the Vegas Golden Knights right now.

Treviling also thinks that Vegas will approach the expansion draft to accumulate assets rather than try to build the perfect team. He predicts that Vegas will have strong goaltending and good defenseman. It will be harder, Treviling intimates, to find quality forwards at a good price, and will be very difficult to find good centers.

And because Vegas takes 30 players, those extra players may be flipped to other teams for draft picks. Unlike other teams, Vegas does not have a farm system in place yet. That means it might be more valuable to take a player and then trade him for numerous lower round draft picks. Vegas may value quantity over quality in the short term.

The Flames have run at least three mock drafts so far, and update monthly its lists of who they think teams will protect. Treliving points out that it is a difficult process given the positional restrictions and many moving parts.

Boston Bruins In Pursuit Of Jonas Brodin

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Though the biggest task for the Minnesota Wild this summer is new deals for Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund, the more pressing decision will be what to do with their glut of defenders prior to the expansion draft. Recently, our own Brian La Rose brought up the problem in his Offseason Keys piece for the Wild, indicating that losing either Jonas Brodin or Mathew Dumba for free in the draft would be a mistake. Enter the Boston Bruins, who today were reported by Joe Haggerty of CSNNE to be in discussions with the Wild over Brodin, an interest that goes all the way back to the trade deadline. Jonas Brodin

While it’s been clear since the season ended that the Bruins needed help on defense, Haggerty notes that it is on the left side in particular that they could use a top-4 player to pair with Charlie McAvoy next season. With news that Sami Vatanen has teams “lining up” for him recently, the Bruins likely won’t be one due to his handedness. Instead, the 23-year old Brodin is a perfect candidate if they can find a package that interests the Wild. On paper, the potential match of Ryan Spooner and a first-round pick suggested by Haggerty makes some sense, acquiring another player who needs protection seems out of the question for the Wild. It’s not only their defensive group who they’ll have trouble protecting, but up front as well since they have three no-movement clauses to deal with.

It will be interesting to see how the negotiations shake out, and if the Bruins give up their first-round pick in the process. As we examined recently, the Bruins are open to moving their top pick given that they’ve selected five times in the first round over the past two seasons, and have added a number of talented players—like Brandon Carlo, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson and Anders Bjork—in the middle rounds as well. This may be the perfect time to dangle the 18th-overall pick in a deal to acquire some defensive help, and try to go after the Stanley Cup once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Lightning Have Not Asked Ryan Callahan To Waive NMC

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Despite the fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning have protection issues in their forward group when it comes to the expansion draft, the team has not yet asked Ryan Callahan to waive his no-movement clause, according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. If he doesn’t waive it, it would mean he is automatically protected from the draft and the team would be down a protection slot. The deadline to ask a player to waive their clause is 4pm on Monday, giving the Lightning the weekend to decide.

Callahan played just 18 games this season due to a hip injury, and is the Lightning’s second highest-paid forward at $5.8MM per season. That deal has three years remaining on it, and now 32 and several years removed from his last effective season it is one of the biggest problems for a team tight to the cap. Callahan is part of the leadership group on Tampa Bay, and has been an alternate captain for the past few seasons after serving as captain for the New York Rangers. While he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season, his effectiveness is still in question as anything more than a bottom-six player.

With at least eight forwards deserved of protection from the Golden Knights, Callahan waiving his NMC would seem like a smart move for GM Steve Yzerman and company. The effect it may have on player relations though has long been debated, with several executives previously stating that they’d never ask a player to move it. It’s unclear whether Yzerman had to convince (or at least come to some sort of agreement with) Valtteri Filppula to waive his no-trade clause to go to Philadelphia at the trade deadline, as the clause only blocked trades to 13 of the other 29 teams. Filppula did use it to block a deal with the Maple Leafs however, indicating that Yzerman was at least somewhat open to the idea of asking him to waive it.

Regardless, there now is just a few days remaining for Yzerman to change his mind and see if Callahan would waive the clause for the betterment of the team. At very little risk of being selected, Callahan could help the Lightning keep the forwards they want and hopefully keeping the core group together. He did earn the clause with his play though, and has no responsibility to the fans or his teammates to waive it.

Snapshots: Spooner, Islanders, Berube, Russell

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Bruins forward Ryan Spooner is coming off a bit of a down season but despite that, “the interest is out there” for his services around the league, reports CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty.  Two years ago, he tallied a career high 49 points but that dipped down to 39 this season while his role diminished a bit as the season went on, a trend that continued in the playoffs where he was a healthy scratch at one point.

The 25 year old is set to become a restricted free agent in July and is due a qualifying offer of $1.1MM, one he will undoubtedly receive whether it’s from Boston or another organization.  Haggerty adds that the Bruins gave prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson some indications that he is in their immediate plans for next season and the youngster would likely fit in nicely in Spooner’s spot on the depth chart.  There’s no guarantee Spooner will be dealt between now and the expansion draft but it appears that he’s certainly in play as GM Don Sweeney looks to shake up his roster.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • The Islanders do not plan to ask either winger Andrew Ladd or defenseman Johnny Boychuk to waive their no-move clauses in advance of the Expansion Draft at this time, GM Garth Snow told Newsday’s Arthur Staple. The challenges that they face are well-documented and if either veteran were to consider waiving it, it would free New York up to protect some other core players from the Golden Knights.
  • Although Craig Berube has interviewed for both the head coaching vacancies in Florida and Buffalo, CSN Philly’s Tim Panaccio reports (Twitter link) that will not land either job. Berube was the head coach for AHL Chicago this season but with the Golden Knights taking over as primary affiliate for that team next year in place of St. Louis, they have brought in their own head coach with today’s hiring of Rocky Thompson.  TSN’s Darren Dreger suggests via Twitter that Berube could wind up as an associate coach with the Blues.
  • The Oilers opened up brief contract talks with the agent for defenseman Kris Russell on Tuesday, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports (Twitter link). Both sides have been vocal about their desire for a reunion but Edmonton is expected to deal with a new contract for center Leon Draisaitl and an extension for center Connor McDavid before really getting into more substantive discussions with Russell (or any other free agents).  The 30 year old is coming off a one year, $3.1MM pact that he got just before the start of the season and will likely be looking for more on the open market.

Teams “Lining Up” For Sami Vatanen

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Amid several pieces of information in the latest edition of Insider Trading on TSN, Pierre LeBrun reported that teams are “lining up” with interest for Sami Vatanen hoping Anaheim Ducks are indeed going to trade him to solve some of their expansion problems. LeBrun mentions the Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils and the Tampa Bay Lightning in particular.

The Ducks have a real crunch on defense that has been examined multiple times this season. Interestingly, they have several young players—Brandon Montour, Shea Theodore and Jacob Larsson in particular—who could step into any holes created by a trade of Vatanen or another defenseman. The team will need to find a trade somewhere, as Vegas would be hard to convince to take someone other than whichever defenseman ends up exposed. Watching Vatanen or Josh Manson be shipped off to Sin City for nothing would be painful for a team who fancies themselves a real contender for the Stanley Cup. "<strong

All of that is to say that Vatanen remains a real trade candidate this month, and it comes as no surprise that he has suitors all over the league. After another season with solid point totals and an average ice time number above 21 minutes, Vatanen projects as a solid addition to nearly every top-4 in the league. The fact that he is right-handed and comes with a sub-$5MM salary for multiple years makes him palatable to dozens of teams.

The three teams that LeBrun mentions are all coming off very different seasons, and demonstrate how widespread the appetite for Vatanen could be. The Maple Leafs, building on a surprisingly good season by their young stars could jump-start their contention window with a few defensive additions. With Nikita Zaitsev and Connor Carrick penciled in as the top two options on the right side, Vatanen could take on a substantial amount of responsibility.

In New Jersey, the team is still in a window when it needs to try and make the playoffs. With a core group in their prime right now, they’re not quite in a rebuild and with a few tweaks could be right back in the postseason picture. The ironic part is that they dealt a right-handed defenseman last summer for Taylor Hall, but obviously could use an upgrade to the blueline for next season.

Tampa Bay was devastated by injury last season but is expected to be a contender not only for the playoffs but the Stanley Cup again next year. With a healthy Steven Stamkos and an improved blueline, they would be among the early favorites for the Atlantic division crown once again. While Victor Hedman has turned into one of the best all-around defensemen in the league, and Anton Stralman is still an underrated possession darling, the rest of the defense has not been as good.

Even though the Ducks are in a tough spot for the expansion draft, they remain in a great spot after drafting or developing a ton of good defenders. With Cam Fowler in extension talks after an outstanding year, they can now pick and choose which other players they keep for their current window. Should they make a trade, they’ll be able to either restock a prospect cupboard that is anything but bare, or add to their NHL squad for another shot at the Stanley Cup next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the 2016-17 season fresh faced and looking to start a new chapter in their long history. After ripping apart the old core by moving Phil Kessel and then Dion Phaneuf in blockbuster trades, the team had finished last and acquired the prize they’d hoped for: Auston Matthews. Adding Matthews to an incredibly young group resulted in success for the franchise, squeaking in the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Though they were eliminated by the Washington Capitals in six games, not many Toronto fans were upset with the outcome. The teenaged-success of Matthews and Mitch Marner had revitalized their hopes and they head into this summer as legitimate contenders for the playoffs once again. Because of their reliance on youth, the expansion draft doesn’t pose as big of a problem for them as some other teams.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, Eric Fehr, Kerby Rychel, Ben Smith, Josh Leivo, Connor Brown, Seth Griffith, Brendan Leipsic

Defensemen:

Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick

Goaltenders:

Frederik Andersen, Antoine Bibeau, Garret Sparks

Notable Exemptions

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Zaitsev, Calle Rosen, Nathan Horton

Key Decisions

With most of their prized assets exempt already from the draft, Brendan Shanahan and Lou Lamoriello were able to easily prepare for the draft during the season. They accepted Eric Fehr from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline, and re-signed Ben Smith to a minimum salary deal in order to fulfill the forward exposure requirements, and can easily go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme in order to limit Vegas’ selection. Josh Leivo

Up front, the Leafs have a few obvious choices like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. Each of those three set career highs in points this season, and hold value either to the team long-term (Kadri) or on the trade market this summer and next year. Past that, the team will likely hold onto Leo Komarov for his defensive ability and Connor Brown as the oft-forgotten rookie who also scored 20-goals this season. That leaves them with two spots and a few decisions to make.

Out of the rest of the forwards, Matt Martin has the best case for protection after signing a four-year pact with the team and playing in all 82 contests. Head coach Mike Babcock has spoken quite highly of his leadership and role on the team, and after leading all NHL forwards in hits for the sixth consecutive season means more to them than just his offensive production (or lack thereof). After that, a decision between Kerby Rychel, Josh Leivo or Brendan Leipsic will likely round out the list and leave two players as possibilities for Vegas.

Rychel was acquired by the Leafs last offseason in exchange for Scott Harrington, and is a former first-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets. After a slow start, he finished with 52 points in the AHL and will look to try and crack the roster next year if he’s still in Toronto. Leivo spent most of the season in the press box, contributing whenever he could get himself into the lineup. With 10 points in 13 games, he showed that he could contribute offensively. If selected by Vegas he—or Leipsic, who was a point-per-game player in the AHL this season—could figure into their top six, as skilled forwards will be hard to find for the expansion club.

Martin MarincinOn defense, three slots should be enough as Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Connor Carrick are the only ones with any real future in Toronto. Both Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak are free agents, while Alexey Marchenko and Martin Marincin played rarely for the club even when healthy. On that note, the Leafs could theoretically acquire another defender before the draft and leave Carrick (or several forwards) exposed.

In net Frederik Andersen is a virtual guarantee, as neither of the younger goaltenders warrant any thought. Bibeau and Sparks have both had up-and-down careers so far, and neither project to be of interest to Vegas.

Among their trade deadline acquisitions was Brian Boyle, who could be of some interest to Vegas in the exclusive negotiation window. The Golden Knights will have a chance to talk to free agents, and Boyle would be a solid addition to their forward group and likely a better option than any other Maple Leaf. Boyle has always seemed interested in heading back to Tampa Bay in the offseason though, where his wife and newborn baby still reside. Other than that, the free agents don’t hold much interest for the young Golden Knight franchise.

The team doesn’t have to worry about any no-movement clauses, as Horton’s is the only one held by players under contract. Because of his degenerative back injury that will keep him from playing ever again, he was included on the list of injury-exempt players alongside the man who was traded for him, David Clarkson.

It’s interesting to note that while Nathan Horton appears on the exempt list due to injury, Joffrey Lupul does not. Lupul hasn’t played in the NHL since partway through the 2015-16 season but maintains that he would like to play again at some point. He’s under contract for another year, and seems no closer to seeing the ice in Toronto as the day he was banished to “Robidas Island”, a fictional place that Lamoriello sends players he no longer wants to be around the team due to their “injury”.

Projected Protection List

F Nazem Kadri
F James van Riemsdyk
F Tyler Bozak
F Leo Komarov
F Matt Martin
F Connor Brown
F Kerby Rychel

D Morgan Rielly
D Jake Gardiner
D Connor Carrick

G Frederik Andersen 

Toronto isn’t in bad shape when it comes to the draft, but there has been chatter since he was acquired that the team has already worked out a deal with Vegas to take Fehr off their hands. Though he’s hardly expensive, his $2MM cap-hit could be better spent by the Maple Leafs who will have bonus overages to deal with this summer. Remember, that even though Lupul and Horton’s cap-hits can be put on long-term injured reserve and not count towards the cap during the season, they do affect it during the summer. A team can only go over the cap by 10% at any time during the offseason, making the Leafs’ salary cap situation tighter than you’d think.

The Maple Leafs have also been rumored in relation to basically every defenseman that may be on the market this summer, and though it’s most likely they would wait until after the expansion draft to acquire one the possibility does still exist that they’d snatch one up off a team with protection issues going into the draft. Either way, they’ll be a team to watch over the next few weeks as they’re bound to be involved in many of the trade talks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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