Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
When the New York Islanders went out last summer and signed Andrew Ladd, they expected him to be an integral piece of their top six and a veteran who could show the rest of the team what it meant to be Stanley Cup contenders. After all, Ladd had won Cups with both Carolina and Chicago, and the Islanders were coming off two straight 100+ point seasons and a round 1 victory over the Florida Panthers. His season very much mirrored the year for the rest of the team, who started off ice cold and found themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference as the calendar turned to December.
The Islanders would eventually catch fire much like Ladd, who after scoring just two goals in his first 24 games would finish the season with 23. New York, riding a six game win streak to finish the season would push the Maple Leafs to the brink but ultimately fall just a point short of the eighth and final playoff spot. Now, having missed the playoffs and still struggling to find a permanent home, they’ll go into the offseason with much on their minds. Outside of re-signing John Tavares to a long-term deal (which is clearly their focus), they’ll select 15th at the entry draft and navigate the troubled waters of the Vegas expansion draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
John Tavares (NMC), Andrew Ladd (NMC), Nikolai Kulemin, Anders Lee, Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince, Alan Quine
Defensemen:
Johnny Boychuk (NMC), Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Loic Leduc, Matthew Finn, Calvin de Haan, Jesse Graham
Goaltenders:
Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, Christopher Gibson
Notable Exemptions
Mikhail Grabovski, Anthony Beauvillier, Michael Dal Colle, Joshua Ho-Sang, Mathew Barzal, Jake Bischoff
Key Decisions
The expansion draft for the Islanders hinges on two key decisions: 1) Will Boychuk waive his no-movement clause and accept exposure knowing that Vegas is unlikely to select his long and expensive contract? 2) Knowing the answer on Boychuk, which of the two protection schemes (seven forwards, three defensemen or eight skaters) will they decide to employ? 
At forward, the second decision looms large as at least nine players have various cases for protection. It would be tough to expose any of the Tavares-Ladd-Lee-Bailey-Nelson group, as they are the core of the forwards and are all young enough (save for perhaps Ladd) to grow and contribute together over the next several years. Outside of those five Cizikas, Strome, Prince and Quine all carry some mixture of potential and performance. Strome carries the investment of a fifth-overall draft selection despite his recent disappointments, making him a tough name to leave off your list at just 23 years old.
Those final few spots up front will be dependent on how the Islanders feel about their defense core though, as they’re at risk of having to expose a good young defender like de Haan or Hamonic. Even if Boychuk decides to waive his NMC, the eight-skater protection scheme would still likely leave Pulock, a 22-year old former 15th-overall pick exposed along with other options like Hickey or Pelech. It also would leave several interesting players available up front.
In net, Greiss will be the obvious protection choice after he took the net this season and was given a three-year extension. It’s not clear that Greiss is a better goaltender at this point than Halak, but he does come cheaper and will be able to hold the fort until some of the Islanders’ outstanding goalie prospects make it to the NHL. The Islanders could swing a deal with Vegas in order for them to take Halak off their hands, but with the amount of goaltending options the Golden Knights are sure to have, it would cost New York a legitimate asset.
The Islanders don’t have any unrestricted free agents that would interest Vegas in their negotiating window, but one has to wonder whether de Haan would be a perfect candidate for a long-term deal with the Golden Knights if he is left unprotected. As a restricted free agent this summer, the 26-year old de Haan will be allowed to speak with Vegas during the window and after his very good season and impressive performance at the World Championships, he could be a big part of a surprisingly good Golden Knights defense corps from day 1.
It’s important to note that Mikhail Grabovski is ineligible for the draft because of his long-term injury, one which he may never return from. Grabovski last played on March 15th of 2016, when he returned from a concussion suffered a month earlier. After experiencing symptoms again, he wouldn’t for the remainder of that year and spent this entire season on long-term injured reserve. He was listed among the other exemptions like David Clarkson and Nathan Horton earlier this year.
Projected Protection List
F John Tavares (NMC)
F Andrew Ladd (NMC)
F Anders Lee
F Josh Bailey
F Brock Nelson
F Ryan Strome
F Casey Cizikas
D Johnny Boychuk
D Nick Leddy
D Travis Hamonic
Protecting Hamonic over de Haan would be debatable for years to come, which forces the us back to the first question; will Boychuk waive his NMC? It’s not even that Boychuk is a bad player, quite the opposite. Just that at $6MM per season for the next five years, his contract is likely protection enough to keep him out of Vegas for the time being. The Golden Knights want to acquire bad contracts in exchange for assets, not just take them off team’s hands for free.
The other thing the team might think about is the good young forwards that are almost ready to be added to the group up front, and if that means they could afford to lose one of their current players. Ho-Sang and Dal Colle should make an impact this season, while Barzal is one of the best prospects in the entire league after another outstanding season in the WHL. Room will have to be made for these young players eventually, and perhaps now is as good a time as any. Either way, the Islanders have some big decisions to make over the coming few days as protection lists are due on June 17th. We’ll find out what choices they made the next day.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Ask any Islander fan, would rather lose Strome or Nelson than Dehaan or Pulock.