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Evening Notes: Beauchemin, Tocchet, MacKinnon

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According to Adrian Dater, it seems likely that Francois Beauchemin will not be bought out by the Colorado Avalanche. His contract is for $4.5 MM and only has one season remaining. He is 37 and signed the contract after his 35th birthday according to CapFriendly, which does make a potential buyout less worthwhile. On 35+ contracts, the team does not receive a cap benefit from a buyout, so the move would be made for other reasons. A buyout would have opened up a roster spot for a younger player and perhaps allowed them to accelerate the re-build. More importantly, it would have allowed Sakic to keep an extra young defender protected, such as Mark Barberio, in the upcoming expansion draft. Beauchemin could be asked to waive his No-Movement Clause, but there has been no indication that has been done.

A standard buyout doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle to GM Joe Sakic, so he will look to either move him for a low pick before expansion, or merely ride out the last season with the veteran. All told, Beauchemin’s stats weren’t all that terrible for a team who finished dead last in the standings. He actually performed noticeably better in possession stats than the season prior, hitting 47.9% Corsi For after a dreadful 43.4% in 2015-16. His plus/minus of -14 was actually better than any other defenseman, excluding Erik Johnson who missed half the season. His point production obviously took a hit, and he lost a step in speed, but with only one year remaining and the Avalanche facing larger issues, Sakic might be wise to turn complete attention to the trade market and drafting with the #4 pick.

  • Rick Tocchet is one of, if not the hottest, name on the coaching market right now. His work on the Penguins’ bench has been commended by many in Pittsburgh, and multiple teams with coaching vacancies have already hinted at their interest. The Buffalo Sabres in particular seem quite high on him. According to Dan Rosen, however, Tocchet’s phone has been remained quiet as his team advanced to the finals. Other organizations have put their pursuit of his talents on hold, as they are allowing him to perform his duties for the Penguins squad in the finals. Tocchet struggled in Tampa Bay as a head coach before landing the assistant position in Pittsburgh under then-coach Mike Johnston. He was a vocal critic of the special teams and handling of stars as a continual radio guest in the Pittsburgh area, before getting the recommendation from owner Mario Lemieux. He survived the cleansing of the coaching staff when Johnston was fired, and has thrived in his new role under Mike Sullivan. His ability to communicate effectively with talented players and coordinate plays have been the most appreciated in Steel City.
  • Another note on Sakic and the Avalanche – on Friday, when TSN created its “Top 30 Trade BaitBoard”, Nathan MacKinnon found himself included. While nothing should be out of the question for a team that finished 30th overall and with only 49 points, MacKinnon appears to be the only true untouchable on the team. Nothing short of an absurd overpayment would pry him out of Denver, as his value to that team is greater than to any of the other 29 organizations. The 21 year old only posted 16 goals last season, but the entire team was dreadful, and Nathan is a safe bet to rebound. Anything is possible, but in all likelihood he is the forward around which the rest of the team will be built. When the team drafts at #4 in this year’s draft, it will be with his needs at least partially in mind.

Latest From Insider Trading: Duchene, Barrie, Oilers

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In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN (video link), Bob McKenzie reports that Avalanche forward Matt Duchene is the “player most likely” to be traded this summer.  Duchene has long been linked to the rumor mill throughout this past season but GM Joe Sakic’s asking price was too high to get an in-season deal done.

The 26 year old is coming off a down year with Colorado, recording 18 goals and 23 assists in 77 games, his lowest full-season output since 2011-12.  He has two years remaining on his current contract with a cap hit of $6MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  The current free agent crop is lacking in impact top six forwards so despite a high price, there should be several teams interested in his services.

While McKenzie wouldn’t guarantee a deal gets done during the offseason, he classifies the situation as one where both the Avalanche and Duchene are hoping for a fresh start.

Other notes to pass along from the segment (although the full video is worth a watch):

  • The belief is that Sakic is still coveting a top blueliner in order to let Duchene go. Darren Dreger notes that part of the reason for that is to potentially allow Colorado to then move defenseman Tyson Barrie.  The 25 year old is a strong producer from the back end although his play in his own end has been a concern for them for a while now.  Barrie has three years left on his deal at a $5.5MM cap charge and Dreger believes it will take a top draft pick or a combination of picks and prospects to get a deal done.
  • While some expected that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid would see his extension for 2018-19 done before the team tries to deal with pending RFA Leon Draisaitl but Dreger reports that the Oilers would like to get both done at the same time. These two contracts will be the top priority in Edmonton this summer and considering the dollars it will take to get both done, they would undoubtedly like to get those contracts done sooner than later so they have a better sense of their salary cap situation before getting too deep into free agency or the trade market.
  • On that note, Dreger suggests that Oilers winger Jordan Eberle will “definitely get traded” this summer. Clearing his $6MM cap hit for two more years would ensure that Edmonton has plenty of money to get McDavid and Draisaitl’s new contracts done.  Earlier this week, GM Peter Chiarelli stated that he doesn’t think that they necessarily have to make a cap-clearing move this offseason but that they will have to at some point in the next couple of seasons.  Like Duchene, Eberle is a top six forward in a market that doesn’t have many of them available so the timing may be right for Chiarelli to do a deal now.

Exclusive Negotiating Rights Of 33 Players Expire

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The deadline for signing draft picks has come and gone, and unless more deals come in after the fact, 33 players will see their exclusive negotiating rights expire. With it they will either re-enter the 2017 draft for the final time or become free agents, depending on their age. None of the selections were made any higher than the fourth round, though even that is an unfortunate loss for a team hoping to hit a late-round stud. Below is the full list of players:

Buffalo Sabres

Giorgio Estephan (6th round, 2015)
Gustav Possler (5th round, 2013)

Calgary Flames

Riley Bruce (7th round, 2015)

Chicago Blackhawks

Roy Radke (6th round, 2015)

Colorado Avalanche

Wilhelm Westlund (7th round, 2013)

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Kyle Dubas No Longer In Colorado's Plans

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  • Though this week it was reported that the Colorado Avalanche had requested and been given permission to talk to Toronto Maple Leafs Assistant General Manager Kyle Dubas it seems as though a hiring is off the table. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was on the Boomer & Warrener radio show this morning, and said that “that window is closed” and that “it’s over”. Friedman specifies that he thinks that it was Toronto who “closed the window” not letting Dubas follow through with the process. Dubas is an up-and-coming GM candidate in Toronto, and is part of a crowded front office with Lou Lamoriello and Mark Hunter. It was surprising in the first place that Toronto would let him interview for what would likely be a lateral move, seeing as Joe Sakic seems safe for now in Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche To Interview KHL Goalie Coach

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Colorado Interested In Maple Leafs AGM Kyle Dubas

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Last night during Ottawa’s miraculous 2-1 victory to force game seven with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Elliotte Freidman of Sportsnet dropped a bomb on another Ontario town. Friedman reported that the Colorado Avalanche had asked for permission to speak with Maple Leafs Assistant General Manager Kyle Dubas for a position in Denver. Friedman continued on Twitter, explaining that he’s not sure where the interaction sits now, but that it very much did happen.

Like John Chayka in Arizona, Dubas is Toronto’s whiz-kid executive who was hired by the team at the age of 28. He had been successfully running the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League since he was 24, and is considered one of the top young minds in hockey. Still just 31, his current role includes GM of the Toronto Marlies of the AHL, usually a stepping stone to the big chair in an NHL front office one day. There has been much speculation that Dubas was being groomed as the next GM of the Maple Leafs when Lou Lamoriello eventually retires, but with a successful candidate in Mark Hunter also present that has never been confirmed.

It’s not clear what Dubas’ new role would be with the Avalanche, as Joe Sakic currently sits firmly in the GM chair—though it might be getting a little warm—and it’s unlikely that the Maple Leafs would want him to move laterally to another AGM position. The Avalanche are working hard to fix their organizational structure, also firing three coaches yesterday to allow Jared Bednar to have a team of his own creation.

Colorado Avalanche Make Changes To Coaching Staff For 2017-18

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The Colorado Avalanche will stick with Jared Bednar as their head coach for next season, but he’ll be surrounded by a different group. Francois Allaire, Tim Army and Dave Farrish will not return for 2017-18. The Avalanche obviously wanted to shake up at least part of the staff after the complete disaster that was the past season. Bednar will now be able to be part of the hiring process to try and build a cohesive team.

Allaire had been the team’s goalie coach for four seasons, hired by the team after an explosive exit from the Maple Leafs in which he was criticized for his performance. Allaire claimed that he had been micro-managed, with his coaching being interfered with by the front office. Known for his butterfly style that created a Conn Smythe winner in Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Allaire faced criticism from Brian Burke on his exit from Toronto. Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard and Giguere himself had found great success in Allaire’s first three years with the team, though the club finished second last in save percentage this season.

Farrish also spent time with the Maple Leafs, but was similarly let go while Randy Carlyle remained the head coach after a disappointing season. The former NHL defenseman has been coaching professional hockey since 1989 when he took over as head coach of the Moncton Hawks of the AHL. He had been with Colorado for two seasons and will likely find another landing spot around the league in no time.

Army had been with the Avalanche for six seasons and is a long-time assistant coach in the league. Between stints as the head coach for his alma mater Providence College he has served on the benches of Anaheim and Washington. He also spent three seasons as the head coach of the AHL’s Portland Pirates (now the Springfield Thunderbirds).

Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 with one of the worst records in recent memory, winning just 22 games and seeing just a single player reach the 20-goal mark. As if their year could get any worse, they fell three spots in the draft lottery and will be required like everyone else to give up a player to the incoming Vegas Golden Knights.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Troy Bourke, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, Sven Andrighetto, Matthew Nieto, Rocco Grimaldi, Felix Girard, Mike Sislo, Turner Elson

Defensemen:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Mark Barberio, Eric Gelinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Nikita Zadorov

Goaltenders:

Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard

Notable Exemptions

J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, A.J. Greer, Andrei Mironov, Chris Bigras

Key Decisions

The Avalanche are in an enviable position when it comes to forwards, where many of their core pieces are still exempt due to the rebuilding nature of the club. It’s not so rosy on defence though, as both Johnson and Beauchemin hold no-movement clauses and thus require protection. Should the team be able to convince one of them—namely Beauchemin, since Johnson still at least represents some trade value—to waive their clause, they could use the 7-3-1 protection format. Otherwise they’ll likely have to go with the eight skater route or risk losing one of Zadorov or Barrie.

That would leave them with just four slots up front which isn’t ideal, but at least could protect the future and biggest trade pieces. That is assuming they don’t move Duchene or Landeskog before the draft, which would open up another spot for a younger player like Grimaldi or Andrighetto. Another option would be a buyout once the first window opens on June 15th, though Beauchemin—the most likely recipient—signed his latest contract after he turned 35 and thus the Avalanche would incur the whole $4.5MM cap hit next season regardless. Calvin Pickard

In net there sits the team’s most important decision. Whether or not to protect Varlamov or Pickard has been much debated, with reports coming out previously that the team will keep the former. After two solid seasons backing up, Pickard struggled at times in the increased role this year when Varlamov went down to injury. That’s not to say the young goaltender doesn’t have a bright future as he recently showed, backstopping Team Canada to a silver medal in the recent World Championships. He was given player of the game honors for Canada in their 2-1 shootout loss to Team Sweden in the gold medal game, and recorded a .938 save percentage in the tournament.

From each team, Vegas is also given the opportunity to talk to pending free agents before the draft. If they should come to an agreement with one, they would forfeit their selection from his former team. The Avalanche don’t really have any UFA targets that would be of much interest, though perhaps 25-year old Brendan Ranford provides some. The Group VI free agent has only played a single game in the NHL, but has proven to be a successful AHL scorer. If for some reason the Golden Knights believe they won’t be able to sign him—or any of the Avalanche UFAs—after July 1st, they could forego their selection entirely.

Projected Protection List

F Nathan MacKinnon
F Matt Duchene
F Gabriel Landeskog
F Mikhail Grigorenko

D Erik Johnson (NMC)
D Francois Beauchemin (NMC)
D Tyson Barrie
D Nikita Zadorov

G Semyon Varlamov

While Colorado is one of the most likely teams to make a move before the deadline, this is how the protection list currently projects for them. The Avalanche could also make a deal with the Golden Knights to take a player like Soderberg off their hands, who suffered an inexplicable drop-off in effectiveness this season. With three more seasons on his current contract, his $4.75MM cap hit is certainly one the Avalanche would love to rid themselves of as they continue their rebuild.

In all, Pickard looks like the worst loss the Avalanche could incur at this point and with several weeks still before the draft they may be able to solve that issue. The Golden Knights should have their fair share of goaltenders available to them, many of which they may feel more comfortable drafting. The Avalanche will continue to look forward with their group of “untouchables” which includes MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost, each of whom are at no risk of being selected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets

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The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?

Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.

Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:

F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL

As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.

D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA

Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.

F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche

Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.

F – Justin WIlliams – UFA

WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.

Andrei Mironov Officially Released From KHL Contract, Signs With Colorado

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Friday: The Avalanche have officially announced the contract, signing Mironov to a two-year entry-level deal.

Thursday: According to agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey, Andrei Mironov has been officially granted release from his KHL contract. Mironov will sign a two-year entry-level contract shortly with the Colorado Avalanche. GM Joe Sakic was confident that the signing would go through, but still hesitated to call it completed until the official release came down.

Mironov is a 6’2″ defender who has played the last five seasons in the KHL, despite still only being 22. Selected in the fourth round in 2015, his physical style and general nastiness will give the Colorado blueline another facet in the future. The left-handed shot was recently compared to Darius Kasparaitis, the long-time NHL defender who was one of the best at getting under opponent’s skin.

While the Colorado blueline needs a lot of work, Mironov and Nikita Zadorov would be a tough duo to play against (though they both play the same side) down the line, though each of their offensive abilities are still in question. Mironov doesn’t move the puck as well as you would hope, and will need to improve that aspect of his game before really being an impact player at the NHL level.

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