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The Day After: Racing To The Bottom

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The NHL trade deadline came and went yesterday with little excitement. Yes, some (but not all) of the rentals that were expected to move went to interesting destinations, but we didn’t have a single blockbuster move or real hockey trade. So now the quest begins for the Stanley Cup with much of the teams and players that we had a week ago, with a Steve Ott here and a Lauri Korpikoski there.

Now for many fans of teams who have been holding out hope for a late playoff push; those who sold many of their assets yesterday in a waving of the white flag for the 2016-17 season, a new journey begins. The quest for the first overall draft pick.

There is no fight, some might say, because of the Colorado Avalanche’s death-grip on last place in the NHL. They have just 37 points through 61 games and have a legitimate shot at becoming the first team to compile fewer than 50 points in a full season since the 1999-00 Atlanta Thrashers, an expansion team that won just 14 games. Colorado will finish last in the league, of that there is no doubt. But that by no means guarantees them the first overall pick

This year, with the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights the last place team will have just a 17.9% chance to select first, not a very good chance at all. The Arizona Coyotes are likely going to finish with the second worst record. With just 51 points they have an eight point “lead” on the Vancouver Canucks and have traded away several pieces. Auston Matthews

But that’s where it gets interesting. From the current third last team—those Canucks, who may have had the best deadline out of anyone—to the tenth worst is just six points. Beyond that the playoffs are just another handful of points away. The race for that third last spot is alive and well, and it could come with a big prize.

The 2017 draft class has been called weak, shallow and lacking impact talent. While it does in comparison to the past two—which featured generational talents not just first overall but second as well—it may be. But to think that it doesn’t house some incredible future NHL talent is ludicrous. It’s not like there are only third-line players available this season, and the battle for the top five should be as fierce as ever.

For teams that lack center depth (which is most of the NHL), this year gives you a choice of at least three phenomenal talents at the top of the board. Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier and Gabe Vilardi all play very different styles, but will all likely have long and prosperous NHL careers. The rest of the first round is littered with talent down the middle: Michael Rasmussen, Casey Middelstadt, Cody Glass and Ryan Poehling all will likely go somewhere in the top half of the draft and all play mostly center.

While Vegas has thinned the odds slightly for everyone after that top pick, coming 28th in the league would still give you a 10% chance at drafting first, and even better odds at landing in that top three. Make no mistake, all the teams that sold yesterday—Vancouver, Detroit, and New Jersey in particular—are after that spot. They’ll say the right things, and the players won’t take a single second of any shift off, but in the back of the GMs mind he’s hoping that Bill Daly opens that card on lottery day and they see their logo emblazoned in gold.

The day after the deadline, and the race for the bottom has begun.

Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Central Division

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The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the “wild” Central Division:

Winners

Chicago Blackhawks:

Of course the Blackhawks are winners on deadline day. Did you expect any less? Although they didn’t make any major moves, Chicago brought in two players via trade that can help them immediately. Oduya, a former Blackhawk, is still familiar with the system and has played with many of the current players. Oduya should be able to step in right away, play major minutes, and form a shutdown pair with Niklas Hjalmarsson (when he’s healthy). Just like the good ’ol days. Meanwhile, like nearly any forward, Jurco has a skill set that will fit in well with Chicago’s star forwards and for just the cost of a third-rounder, could represent a long-term fit with the Blackhawks.

Dallas Stars:

The Stars are a tough team to place at the 2017 deadline. They are in the midst of an unforeseen epic collapse of a season and have done well to trade their impending free agents. If Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and Adam Cracknell weren’t all hurt, Dallas would be a deadline loser for not moving them. As it stands, they did hold on to Jiri Hudler, but traded their three other healthy upcoming UFAs. Eaves earned them great value in return and Korpikoski, a late off-season addition, nets a promising young defenseman in Heatherington. Even McNeill and a fourth-rounder for Oduya is a pretty good deal. So for those three moves anyway, GM Jim Nill did well. With that said, the Benn trade was ill-timed and doesn’t make your team better. Benn still had term on his contract and was the team’s best defensive defenseman and, of course, captain Jamie Benn’s older brother. Dallas will likely regret that move. The Stars are teetering on the edge of winner and loser, but they’ve been through enough this season, so we’ll call them winners.

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Colorado Trades Martinsen To Montreal For Andrighetto

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The Colorado Avalanche have been surprisingly quiet at the deadline for the league’s worst team, but they’ve jumped into yet another deal by swapping young forwards with the highly-active Montreal Canadiens, sending Andreas Martinsen to the Habs in exchange for Sven Andrighetto. 

Martinsen is the fifth new player that the Canadiens have added at the deadline, and continues their trend of getting bigger and tougher. The 6’3″, 220-lb. Norwegian winger played only limited minutes for the Avs and has just seven points in 55 games. However, Martinsen is a heavy hitter and plays in well to new head coach Claude Julien’s system of strong, two-way play.

Colorado took a long look at Andrighetto when he was on waivers earlier this season, and clearly decided they wanted to pull the trigger on acquiring the speedy Swiss forward. Andrighetto had 17 points in 44 games last season with Montreal but, instead of a promotion, he has instead seem less time and production in 2016-17. The Avalanche will provide some much-needed new opportunity for Andrighetto to show he belongs in the NHL.

Avalanche, Capitals Swap Minor Leaguers

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The Avalanche have made their second minor league swap of the day as their AHL team announced that Colorado has dealt defenseman Cody Corbett to Washington in exchange for goaltender Joe Cannata.

The fact that Colorado made a move to add some goaltending depth isn’t particularly surprising with Semyon Varlamov out for the season.  Cannata, who has been assigned to AHL San Antonio, will likely replace Jeremy Smith, who is currently up with the Avalanche.  The 27 year old netminder has played in 22 games with Hershey of the AHL this season, posting an 11-5-1 record with a 3.22 GAA and a .876 SV%.  He will be an unrestricted free agent in July and has a league minimum cap hit.

As for Corbett, he has played in 23 games with San Antonio this season, collecting two goals and eight assists.  He’s in the final year of his entry level contract with a cap hit of $625K.

Kings Interested In Jarome Iginla

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The Los Angeles Kings have expressed some interest in Colorado right winger Jarome Iginla, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports via Twitter.  Iginla holds a full no-trade clause but is open to lifting it to move to a contender and McKenzie adds that the interest may be mutual.

The Kings are looking for some help up front as they are one of the lowest scoring teams in the Western Conference.  However, Iginla has tailed off offensively this season and is on pace for the worst offensive numbers in his career.  In 61 games this year, the 39 year old has just eight goals, ten assists, and a -21 rating while averaging a career low 14:45 per game.

However, perhaps a change of scenery would result in a bit of a spark for the veteran.  The Kings wouldn’t exactly represent a contending team, however, as they remain on the outside looking in at a playoff spot (they are one point behind the Blues for the last Wild Card spot but St. Louis has a game in hand).

Iginla is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $5.33MM.  It’s likely that Colorado will have to retain a significant portion of the deal if a trade is agreed upon.

Coyotes, Avalanche Exchange AHL Wingers

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The Avalanche and Coyotes have made a small trade as Terry Frei of the Denver Post reports (via Twitter) that Colorado has dealt right winger Joe Whitney to Arizona in exchange for left winger Brendan Ranford.

Ranford’s stay with the Coyotes lasted only a month after being acquired from Dallas back on February 1st.  He didn’t get into any games with Arizona and instead played in ten games with their AHL affiliate in Tucson, being held off the scoresheet.  For the season, the 24 year old has six goals and 11 assists in 46 minor league contests.

As for Whitney, he has spent the entire season with Colorado’s AHL affiliate in San Antonio.  In 55 games with the Rampage, he has 11 goals and 17 helpers which ranked him fourth in team scoring.

Both players are slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.

Snapshots: Quincey, Duchene, Smith

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Kyle Quincey has been removed from the lineup for the New Jersey Devils tonight against the Montreal Canadiens and though a deal is not imminent it is likely before Wednesday’s trade deadline. The team is keeping him in the press box to make sure he doesn’t suffer an injury as they are now firmly in the selling position. Deb Kaufman Placey of MSG Network reports that Quincey came to the arena today expecting to play, but was told by GM Ray Shero what was in store for him.

Quincey was signed for just $1.25MM this summer after the Detroit Red Wings let him walk in free agency. Once thought of as an integral part of the blueline in Detroit, his effectiveness was questioned over the past few years and it was ultimately decided to not re-sign him. In New Jersey, he’s put in a quietly effective season as one of the only players on the team with a positive plus/minus and improving possession numbers. He spoke to the media about the last time he was dealt at the deadline, in 2012 back to the team that drafted him. He’ll likely add to the Devils’ growing collection of draft picks in the next couple of days.

  • Matt Duchene isn’t worried about what the trade deadline has in store for him, but will definitely be glad to see it pass. Terry Frei of the Denver Post caught up to Duchene after practice this morning where the young forward told him he’s “just focusing on getting to Philly tonight and preparing for the game tomorrow.” Unfortunately for Duchene his name will undoubtedly come back up as soon as the season ends if he isn’t traded by Wednesday’s deadline, as the team clearly seems to want to move on from their current core. The Avalanche are still in dead last in the league with only 37 points and will have the best chance to select one of Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier to replace the star centerman should he make his exit in the next few months.
  • As written today after the Detroit Red Wings signed defenseman Nick Jensen to a two-year extension, the team has now turned to a possible extension for Brendan Smith. Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News reports that Smith’s agent is in active negotiations with the Red Wings and has hopes for a deal being signed soon. Smith is earning $2.75MM this year and is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end.

Western Conference Snapshots: Berglund, Hanzal, Johnson, Bourque

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One potential option for clubs looking for center help ahead of the deadline was removed with the St. Louis Blues locking up Patrik Berglund to a five-year, $19.25MM deal. On the surface that might appear to be a hefty commitment for a player who hasn’t quite lived up to his advanced billing as a former first-round pick. Berglund is a skilled player with great size at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds but has failed to register more than 38 points in any of his five previous campaigns and likely won’t reach that mark this year either. Yet Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post Dispatch argues the Blues and Berglund settled on a fair agreement for both sides.

Hochman references a point made by fellow hockey scribe Greg Wyshynski in his “Puck Daddy” blog; Berglund’s new deal is identical to that which was signed last summer by Darren Helm. The Red Wings forward has six goals and 11 points in 32 games this season. Berglund, conversely, has 17 goals in 60 games. Ultimately Hochman’s argument boils down to his view that Berglund is at worst a solid third-line center capable of playing in all situations and contributing 20 goals a year. Based on the likely cost to replace that production on the free agent market, $3.85MM is a good deal.

Elsewhere in the West:

  • With Arizona one of the few declared sellers and the team yet to approach soon-to-be free agent center Martin Hanzal about a new contract, the big pivot knows his days with the only NHL organization are nearing an end. As Sarah McLellan of AZ Central writes, in the nearly 10 years Hanzal has spent with the Coyotes organization, he has developed from a young player who as longtime teammate Radim Vrbata observed, “I don’t think he understood what it meant to be an NHL player,” into one who routinely matches up against the opposition’s best night in and night out. Of course that’s exactly why Hanzal is being targeted by so many clubs looking for forward help going into the playoffs. The 6-foot-6 center can play in any situation and is also a threat as a net-front presence on the man-advantage. Reports indicate that Coyotes GM John Chayka has placed a high price tag on Hanzal and it’s easy to see why.
  • Colorado, in the midst of an agonizingly bad season, received some good news with word that top defenseman Erik Johnson and veteran forward Rene Bourque have both pronounced themselves healthy and fit for duty, reports Terry Frei of The Denver Post. The absence of Johnson, out since early December with a broken fibula, has been an especially difficult one for the Avalanche. At the time of his injury, Colorado had a record of 9-13-1. In the 36 games the veteran blue liner has missed, the Avalanche have amassed a paltry 16 points. Obviously Johnson’s return comes far too late to impact the team’s on-ice fortunes much but a stretch of solid play might enhance his value as an offseason trade asset should the Avalanche embrace a full rebuild this summer. Johnson is in the first year of a seven-year, $42MM pact and at 28-years-old, the contract is expected to cover the downward slope of the defenseman’s career and certainly complicates the notion of a trade. Bourque meanwhile, is one a cheap, one-year deal and has contributed nine goals in 43 games with Colorado. If he can get back in the lineup and play well for a couple of games, it’s conceivable a team looking for bottom-six depth might take a flier on him at the deadline.

Trade Candidates: Matt Duchene

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A wildly disappointing 2016-17 campaign in Colorado has led to rampant speculation that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is ready to tear down a roster he has had a big hand in both assembling and keeping together. Should he decide to pull the trigger, Sakic’s most valuable and marketable asset is 26-year-old center Matt Duchene. In seven full NHL seasons, Duchene has tallied 20 or more goals five times and with 16 through 54 contests so far this season, it appears likely he’s well on his way 20 goals yet again. Top-six pivots still squarely in their prime and with multiple years of contractual control remaining are all but impossible to acquire which presents Sakic with a unique opportunity to jump start the reconstruction of the Avalanche franchise if he can squeeze fair value from an interested suitor.

Contract

Part of what makes Duchene a valuable commodity, besides his high skill level and past performance of course, is the two seasons remaining on his contract which call for a cap charge of $6MM per season. Compared to what comparable free agent talent costs on the open market, Duchene is a relative bargain at his price.

2016-17

While it’s been a tough season all around in Denver, on an individual level Duchene is in the midst of another solid season offensively with 16 goals and 36 points in 54 games. Prorated over a full 82-game schedule, he would be on pace for a 24-goal, 55-point campaign. Given the lack of offensive production around him in Colorado (the Avalanche are currently last in the NHL in scoring, averaging fewer than two goals per game) it’s easy to project better numbers elsewhere surrounded by better talent.

Season Stats

54 GP, 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points, -20 plus/minus, 6 PIM, 124 SOG

Suitors

While any team in the league would love to add a player of Duchene’s caliber, a few stand out due to possessing the assets Colorado would want in return in addition to the need for a high end, top-six forward. Carolina boasts several talented young blue liners they could use to entice Colorado while Duchene would give the Hurricanes a skilled pivot to slot ahead of Jordan Staal, who is best suited for third line duty.

Ottawa, as mentioned earlier, absolutely could use another top-six forward and have the young assets required to make a deal work but at this point don’t appear interested at the current price tag.

Nashville has also been listed as a potential destination with either Mattias Ekholm or Ryan Ellis headlining a return package, but after dealing Seth Jones last year would the Predators wish to deplete their defense corps further to bolster their offensive attack?

Likelihood of a Trade

Blockbuster deals of this nature are difficult to execute in-season. With nearly every postseason contender at or near the salary cap ceiling, acquiring a player with a $6MM cap charge would generally either require a team to send an expensive contract back in return or to retain salary to facilitate a trade. That’s why a majority of major moves are completed in the offseason when salary cap concerns are lessened with clubs allowed to exceed the cap ceiling by 10%. More teams will realistically be able to join the bidding which should serve to increase the return Colorado can expect. It’s likely Colorado will pull of a blockbuster deal with Duchene a strong possibility to be moved, but the best guess is a deal will wait until summer.

Declining Greatness: The Case For Jarome Iginla

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A few weeks ago Zach Leach profiled one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history, Jarome Iginla. He started the piece by saying that Iginla was “a legend with very bad luck” and though he was talking about Iginla’s career, and how close (but yet so far) he has come on several occasions to being in the right place at the right time, he could have easily meant something else that teams should consider when looking at the 618-goal man this trade deadline.

No, it’s not his age—the fact that he’ll turn 40 this July is something everyone should be aware of, but not what this piece will be about. Not his cap hit either; the $5.33MM number is a tough pill to swallow for sure, but at least it expires at the end of the year. It’s his shooting percentage. Sure, Iginla might be a step slower than he has been in the past, and perhaps this legend is ready to ride off into the sunset. It’s just that there may be something left in the tank. Jarome Iginla

First of all, he’s playing on Colorado which has been a deathtrap for offensive players all season. Whether it’s the coaching of Jared Bednar, the horrible possession metrics almost everyone has put up, or some toxic attitude leaking down from the front office, nearly everyone has been underperforming. Matt Duchene is on a 52 point pace, which would be the lowest he’s recorded for a season where he played more than 70 games. Gabriel Landeskog may not crack 40, well below his career average. Even Nathan MacKinnon, who is currently leading the team in scoring doesn’t look like he’ll improve much on his 52 point effort from a year ago, in which he played only 72 games.

Iginla is right there along with them, scoring just 16 points in 58 games. But what do you expect from a guy who has lined up beside John Mitchell and Blake Comeau for most of the season, a duo that has a combined point total of 15. He’s also been given the least amount of icetime of his career, playing just 14:45 per night. Perhaps this is just because he’s no good anymore, but there may be a silver lining.

Yes, that’s the shooting percentage which currently sits at 6.1%, less than half of his career rate. He’s still generating shots, with 114 on the year but just nothing is going in for him. He’s on pace to almost match the shot total from each of the last two years, when he had 29 and 22 goals respectively, and doing it with much worse linemates. No, he’ll never be a defensive presence that drives possession, but he can be a goal scoring threat even at his advanced age. If he sat at his career shooting percentage we’d be talking about a 15-goal scorer instead, despite Mitchell and Comeau still being alongside him.

Playoff experience can’t exactly be quantified, but anecdotally the game slows down in the postseason. When the whistles are put away, a bit more obstruction takes place and physical goal scoring threats are extremely important. Iginla has scored 37 playoff goals in just 81 games, a better per-game pace than Sidney Crosby. It’s not that he’ll continue to be a legendary goal scoring threat, just that he may still be a fine secondary option for a team looking for some depth on the wing. He won’t cost much, and he might just get that one last chance at a Stanley Cup.

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