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Poll: Ottawa’s Impending Free Agents

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The Ottawa Senators are a team in trouble. The Senators finished with a 28-43-11 record last season for a total of 67 points, second-lowest in the NHL. The team also placed close to the bottom in both goals for and goals against, which combined for a the league’s second-worst goal differential of -70. Ottawa dealt with a public relations nightmare this summer surrounding Mike Hoffman and ended up having to deal the dependable scorer away for pennies on the dollar. They have thus far failed to add any difference-makers via trade or free agency this off-season as well. On top of that, owner Eugene Melnyk is reportedly hemorrhaging money and appears to have a singular focus of spending as little as possible this season. That task is made difficult by a roster that features overpaid, ineffective veterans such as Bobby Ryan, Marian Gaborik, and Mikkel Boedker and a 37-year-old goalie coming off the worst season of his career in Craig Anderson. The Senators are the popular pick to be the worst team in the NHL in 2018-19, but even that has no silver lining, as the Colorado Avalanche own Ottawa’s first-round pick, potentially the first overall pick in next year’s draft.

It almost seems like so much is going wrong in Ottawa that things can only get better. Unfortunately, that is simply not the case. Early in this off-season, the Senators made a contract extension offer to all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson, who is slated for free agency next summer. When Karlsson dismissed this initial offer, the team made it know that they were open to trading the face of the franchise. Just this week, the team was unable to come to terms on a long-term extension with top scorer Mark Stone, instead signing him to a one-year deal that will make him an unrestricted free agent after the season, where he will potentially be the biggest available name behind Karlsson. Perhaps the biggest bargain on the team, Ryan Dzingel’s team-friendly contract runs out after next season and the young forward will want a significant raise, even if that means it doesn’t come from the penny-pinching Senators. Finally, Matt Duchene, who Ottawa gave up substantial trade capital to acquire early last season – when their future looked much brighter – is also entering the final year of his contract and may not want to stick around any longer in Ottawa after the team fell apart soon after his acquisition.

With Hoffman and Derick Brassard already gone, the Senators face a very real possibility that they will begin the 2019-20 season without all of their top six scorers from the 2017-18 season (make that top seven if they succeed in trading Ryan). Between the value each would have on the open market prompting them to test the waters and the mounting pressure on the team to trade them during what will almost certainly be another season of struggles, the odds of each of them returning is slim. If the team was second-worst last year, did nothing to improve this off-season, and doesn’t have the pick that could otherwise land them a franchise cornerstone in next year’s draft, it is scary to think about how much worse things could get in Ottawa if all four of these prominent free agents depart.

This begs the question: how many of Karlsson, Stone, Dzingel, and Duchene will still be Senators this time next year?

Minor Transactions: 8/2/18

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As the calendar turns to August, some players who were on NHL deals last season have been forced to seek minor league deals this summer.  Here’s a rundown of today’s minor moves.

  • The Avalanche have signed UFA winger Tim McGauley to a one-year, minor league contract, their AHL team announced. McGauley signed with the Capitals as an undrafted free agent in October of 2015 and finished third in the WHL in scoring that season.  However, that failed to translate to much success at the professional level as he has spent the majority of his pro career at the ECHL level.  Last season, he recorded 36 points in 48 games with Washington’s ECHL affiliate, recording 36 points but that wasn’t enough to garner a qualifying offer from the team back in June.
  • From that same announcement, the Avs also inked winger Cole Ully to a one-year, minor league pact. After spending all of 2016-17 in the AHL, the 23-year-old was dropped down to Idaho of the ECHL for most of last year where he picked up 39 points in 40 games.  He was non-tendered by Dallas in June.
  • Boston has inked winger Chase Balisy to a one-year AHL deal, reports Mark Divver of the Providence Journal (Twitter link).  The 26-year-old got into eight games with the Panthers last season but spent the majority of the year at the AHL level, collecting 35 points in 67 games in Springfield.  As he had more than three professional years under his belt with less than 80 career NHL games, Balisy was eligible for Group Six unrestricted free agency.

Patrik Nemeth Avoids Arbitration With Colorado Avalanche

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The Colorado Avalanche were one of the final teams with an arbitration hearing on the books, due to meet in Toronto on Saturday with defenseman Patrik Nemeth. That won’t be necessary now, as the team has signed Nemeth to a one-year $2.5MM contract. Nemeth will be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the contract. GM Joe Sakic released a statement about his newest signing:

Patrik is a big, physical defenseman who is an important piece of our D-corps. He plays a significant role on our penalty kill, he blocks shots, and we’re happy to have him back this season.

Nemeth came to the Avalanche last October when the Dallas Stars placed him on waivers just before the season began, and became a key part of the Colorado defense. In 68 games he was finally given a reasonable opportunity to show what he could do at the NHL level, logging more than 19 minutes a night and anchoring a penalty kill unit. Though Nemeth doesn’t have a ton of offensive upside, he still recorded 15 points for the Avalanche and easily led the club with a +27 rating. He was also first on the team in blocked shots with 185, which put him fifth in the entire NHL.

Even with the surprise performance in 2017-18, there’s no guarantee that Nemeth has a long future in Colorado. With Erik Johnson still under contract for the next five years, Ian Cole signed to a new three-year deal, and Samuel Girard just starting out what looks to be a very promising career there aren’t going to be that many spots on the blue line going forward. Those spots may end up going to other young players like Cale Makar and Conor Timmins before long, and there is always still a chance that Nikita Zadorov reaches his full potential and demands more than 20 minutes a night as a shutdown option. For Nemeth—and even Tyson Barrie, who has two years left on his current deal—there may not be a lot of opportunity in Colorado.

That said, a one-year $2.5MM contract gives Nemeth the chance to prove he deserves a long-term deal. Whether that deal comes with Colorado or someone else on the open market, another solid penalty killing performance this season could make him an intriguing option. Still young enough to contribute for several years, and likely still demanding a reasonable price, Nemeth could be a solid third-pairing addition to many clubs around the league. That hinges on his 2018-19, meaning he’ll have to continue to work hard and prove he is a reliable NHL defenseman.

 Adrian Dater of BSN Denver was first to report on the contract, while CapFriendly provided the financial details.

Snapshots: Doan, Karlsson, Nemeth

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The Arizona Coyotes will retire the first number in the history of their franchise when they raise Shane Doan’s #19 sweater to the rafters this season. The ceremony will take place on February 24th, fittingly against the Winnipeg Jets where Doan started his career. Doan’s Jets turned into the Coyotes after just one season in Winnipeg, and he would spend the next two decades growing the game of hockey in an extremely non-traditional market.

His influence on the Coyotes was obvious, recording 972 points in 1,540 career games and serving as captain for more than a dozen seasons, but his legacy may best be remembered by the players that come after him. Auston Matthews is already a star in the NHL, and credits Doan as one of the biggest reasons he wanted to become a hockey player in the first place.

  • Craig Custance of The Athletic tweets that there is no contract imminent between the Vegas Golden Knights and restricted free agent William Karlsson, meaning his August 4th arbitration hearing is still scheduled. Karlsson is an incredibly difficult case to handicap, after exploding for 43 goals and 78 points this season despite scoring just 15 and 45 over his first two NHL seasons. The Golden Knights have already handed out several long-term contracts to players they deem core pieces, and could still work something out with Karlsson over the next few days.
  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver reports (subscription required) that the Colorado Avalanche will announce a settlement with Patrik Nemeth today, avoiding his arbitration hearing on Saturday. Nemeth was one of just three players left with a hearing on the books after Cody Ceci and Gemel Smith met with the arbitrator today, though was still outside the period where a salary ask was required to be submitted. After finding himself in an increased role with the Avalanche this season, Nemeth recorded 15 points in 68 games and was a key part of their penalty kill.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part I

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. Here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Anaheim to Dallas:

Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry – three years, $25.875MM remaining

Corey Perry is no doubt a fan favorite in Anaheim. The big winger is a career Duck who has always played with an edge and a knack for finding the back of the net. However, the former 50-goal scorer has just 19 and 17 in the past two years respectively to the tune of $8.625MM per year. His lack of speed is apparent to even the most inexperienced hockey fan and he has drawn criticism from both GM Bob Murray and coach Randy Carlyle for the drop-off in his skating ability and production. The Ducks aren’t quite up against the salary cap just yet, but have three restricted free agents still unsigned and some big decisions on the horizon. Things are about to get tight in Anaheim and, as much as Ducks fans may not want to hear it, trading Perry away in the right deal would be the easiest solution.

Arizona Coyotes: None

The Coyotes trade for bad contracts, as the perennial salary cap floor dwellers rarely sign or acquire an expensive, long-term deal with an actual asset who may not be worth it.

Boston Bruins: David Backes – three years, $18MM remaining

On July 1st, 2016, it was leaked that Boston would sign David Backes to a one-year, $6MM contract and the Bruins were praised for bringing the veteran forward in as a hired gun. That celebration was short-lived, as the report was soon corrected to being a five-year deal with the same yearly salary and many questioned adding a 32-year-old with 727 games to his credit on a contract of that length and value. Two years later, the doubters have been proven right for the most part. Backes has not been bad in Boston (71 points in 131 games) and injuries have certainly affected his game, but it appears that his 50-point upside and Selke-caliber high-energy play are a thing of the past. Backes doesn’t have a defined role with the Bruins going forward and, as a team that doesn’t need the extra leadership and locker room presence and does need as much cap space as it can get, Boston would be better off if Backes were elsewhere.

Buffalo Sabres: Zach Bogosian – two years, $10.286MM remaining

The Sabres are finally trending in the right direction and have even used other teams’ bad salary cap situations to bring in some nice players this off-season. Buffalo themselves are in fine shape with the cap. However, there is still one contract that is bringing them down and that is Zach Bogosian. If Bogosian was fully healthy, his cap hit of just over $5.1MM would not be too bad. The 28-year-old defenseman has been a very capable two-way player in his career. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been healthy enough during his time in Buffalo to be worth that salary. Bogosian played in only 18 games last year due to injury – and when he did play it showed that he wasn’t 100% – and has never topped 64 games in a season with the Sabres. The team has several young defenseman that could use as much ice time as possible and a beat up Bogosian isn’t helping anyone in Buffalo. Chances are the Sabres could still get a good return for the rearguard if he does show signs of being back at full-strength.

Calgary Flames: Troy Brouwer – two years, $9MM remaining

Calgary is in a really difficult salary cap situation with little space as is and five restricted free agent situations still to sort out. The team simply can afford to be paying Brouwer $4.5MM in each of the next two years for what he brings to the table. Many were skeptical of the Brouwer contract when signed and they were correct. The veteran power forward has only 25 and 22 points respectively in his first two years in Calgary, including just six goals last season, and at 32 years old he is unlikely to improve. Brouwer has even lost some of his trademark physical edge and recorded a career-low average time on ice last season when he was simply a non-factor in most games. With multiple players filing for salary arbitration, the Flames have been awarded an extra buyout period and it would not come as a shock to see Brouwer fall victim to it.

Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Darling – three years, $12.45MM remaining

The argument here is not that the Hurricanes should trade Darling because they need the cap space but that they should trade Darling because they need a better starting goaltender. Carolina is in fine salary cap shape, but so long as Darling is making more than $4MM per year, the team is likely to stick with him as the top guy. They have already committed to giving him another chance as the starter next season. Unfortunately, Darling’s first season in Raleigh hardly convinced anyone that this contract would work out. Moving from backup to starter, Darling seemed to crumble under the pressure even behind a stout defense, posting an .888 save percentage and 3.18 GAA as one of the worst keepers in the NHL. Perhaps his play will improve in year two, but the Hurricanes can’t be happy with the early results.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook – six years, $41.25MM remaining

When the Blackhawks made Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews the highest paid players in the league back in 2014, who would have figured that a different contract would be causing the team problems? Brent Seabrook’s eight-year, $55MM extension is already a nightmare for Chicago with the bulk of the contract still to come. Seabrook is a fine defenseman, but that doesn’t cut it when you’re paid like one of the top defenseman in the league, but your play is slipping and your team is finishing last in the division. This past season especially, it was clear that Seabrook has lost a step. Both his scoring and checking have diminished and he no longer resembles the player who was regularly posting 40+ points and garnering Norris Trophy votes. Seabrook will turn 34 later this season and it seems guaranteed that this contract only gets worse unless the team finds some way to trade him.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson – five years, $30MM remaining

The Avalanche have one of the lowest payrolls in the league with superstar Nathan MacKinnon locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. Their distance from the cap ceiling this season makes egregious contracts with just one year remaining – like streaky starter Semyon Varlamov and invisible forward Colin Wilson – somewhat tolerable. However, several major contributors are set to be restricted free agents after next season, Colorado will need to add another goaltender, and could still stand to add another difference-maker up front. Things could get tighter for the Avs moving forward and the one contract that could become a problem is Erik Johnson. Johnson eats up minutes and plays a defensively sound game, but the veteran defenseman is injury prone and does not create enough offense to warrant a $6MM cap hit. If the Avalanche were offered a reasonable deal for Johnson today they may not take it, but this time next year that same deal will be far more attractive.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Brandon Dubinsky – three years, $17.55MM remaining

The Blue Jackets pay Brandon Dubinsky like a second-line center and last season got fourth-line production from the veteran. Yes, Dubinsky has had his fair share of injuries, but a consistent 40+ point scorer dropping to just 16 points on the year was alarming. Columbus is no longer a small market team still figuring things out; the Jackets are a contender and like most contenders are close to the salary cap limit. The team can’t afford to have Dubinsky continuing to produce at this level while costing them $5.85MM against the cap. They hope that he bounces back this year, but even a slow start could have Columbus taking their best offer.

Dallas Stars: Martin Hanzal – two years, $9.5MM remaining

It may be too early to judge last summer’s Martin Hanzal contract, but if Dallas was offered a re-do right now, they would take it. Hanzal’s first season with the Stars was a disaster. Injuries limited him to just 38 games and even when active he contributed only ten points –  a 22-point pace over a full season – and somehow finished with the second-lowest plus/minus rating on the team. If Hanzal gets healthy, which is a big if, he could return to form next season, but if not the Stars could be quick to deal him away. The team desperately needs to bounce back from a devastating slump that cost them a playoff spot and have been rumored to be interested in big (expensive) names all off-season. That plan doesn’t mix well with a $4.75MM player who brought almost nothing to the team last year.

Keep an eye out for Part II of this three-part series coming soon…

 

Logan O’Connor Signs With Colorado Avalanche

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The Colorado Avalanche have convinced Logan O’Connor to turn pro, signing the University of Denver forward to a two-year entry-level contract. O’Connor was invited to Avalanche development camp, and will now join the organization on a full-time basis. GM Joe Sakic had this to say about his newest prospect:

Logan is a hard-working player who brings leadership, energy and speed every night. His game has continued to develop each season, and we are excited that he has decided to pursue his professional career with the Avalanche organization.

O’Connor was set to take over the captaincy at DU this season now that the old leadership group is no longer there—Tariq Hammond, Troy Terry and Adam Plant have all moved on to professional hockey—but the Pioneers will have to find another candidate for the 2018-19 season. Instead, the 21-year old forward will try to bring the same level of defensive responsibility and hockey IQ to the Colorado Eagles in their first season in the AHL. It’s unlikely that O’Connor will reach the NHL this season, but he should add some more forward depth to the organization as they look to take the next step and compete for Stanley and Calder cups.

Though there doesn’t seem to be a ton of upside to O’Connor, the team is obviously willing to give opportunities to hard working players that already have ties to the area. As a DU alum, O’Connor will be a nice addition to the Eagles as they look to improve their foothold in the minor hockey landscape. After back-to-back Kelly Cup titles in the ECHL, the Eagles have moved up to the AHL and will be under the watch of head coach Greg Cronin.

Central Notes: Blackhawks, Toews, Kyrou, Makar

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For a rare change of pace, the Chicago Blackhawks prospect camp was dominated by the team’s defensive prospects, which included several big names including 2018 first-round pick Adam Boqvist. The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required), who posts his 20 takeaways from development camp, writes the most important fact is that of all their blueline talent, four of those players have the potential to develop into top-four talent, including Boqvist, 2017 first-rounder Henri Jokiharju. 2018 first-rounder Nicolas Beaudin and 2017 second-rounder Ian Mitchell.

That’s a big improvement for a club that hasn’t produced a top-four defenseman since they drafted Niklas Hjalmarsson back in 2005. The team has had multiple failures when drafting defenseman in the first two rounds since then or have traded them in deals to improve their NHL club instead, including Simon Danis-Pepin (2nd-2006), Akim Aliu (2nd-2007), Dylan Olsen (1st-2009), Justin Holl (2nd-2010), Stephen Johns (2nd-2010), Adam Clendening (2nd-2011), Dillon Fournier (2nd-2012) and Carl Dahlstrom (2nd-2013).

  • NHL.com’s Tracey Myers writes that Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews hit the ice for the second time this offseason last week and said he is working on little parts of his game to improve after a slightly down season last year that saw the Blackhawks miss the playoffs. While his 20 goals and 52 points were solid, his progression has shrunk in each of the last two seasons. “I think the biggest thing is just feeling good and getting back to feeling strong and fast,” Toews said. “As I’ve mentioned a few times, it’s just getting rid of old injuries and just feeling healthy again. I’m kind of taking advantage to work in that area.”
  • In a mailbag series, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes that top prospect Jordan Kyrou, who has finished up his junior career, will have a tough time earning a spot in the St. Louis Blues’ rotation next season after the team went out and acquired David Perron, Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon as well as the potential return of Robby Fabbri from injury. With the exception of an amazing training camp, Kyrou is likely to start the season with the team’s AHL affiliate. Kyrou, who posted 39 goals and 109 points with the OHL’s Sarnia Sting last season, should be ready contribute soon as injuries at some point will likely allow the team to give Kyrou some time with the NHL club.
  • Rick Sadowski of NHL.com writes that Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar believes he needs more time in college before he is ready to step into the NHL. Makar, the Avalanche’s 2017 first-round pick (fourth overall), struggled out of the gate at the University of Massachussetts – Amherst, but started to pick it up in the second half of the season and improved even more after a stint at the World Junior Championship. “I had very high expectations going into my first NCAA season,” said Makar. “I’m very tough on myself. I think I’m my biggest critic. I want to work on my consistency. I struggled with that a little bit last year.”

Colorado Avalanche Sign Three RFAs

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The Colorado Avalanche are down to one restricted free agent remaining – defenseman Patrik Nemeth – after announcing three contract extensions today with RFAs. Goaltender Spencer Martin, defenseman Ryan Graves, and defenseman Mason Geertsen, whose deal had already been leaked, have all signed one-year contracts for upcoming season. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Martin, the most well-known of the trio, has been a mainstay in net in the minors for the Avalanche for the past few years. Martin has made 84 starts for the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage over the past two seasons as well as three NHL appearances. Martin’s numbers at both levels are rather pedestrian, but the 23-year-old was Colorado’s top goaltender prospect until the team used a third-round pick on big Finnish keeper Justus Annunen this June. Between losing that title and the team’s additions of Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz in net, Martin is facing a big season in 2018-19 with his relevance in the Avs’ system in doubt.

Graves, 23, was just recently acquired by Colorado at the trade deadline in a swap of defensive prospects with the New York Rangers. The big blue liner was a 2013 fourth-round pick who has produced well in the AHL to this point in his pro career, but has yet to get a shot at the NHL. Graves is far from a polished prospect but still has some upside to his game that brings both physicality and play-making ability.

Like Graves, Geertsen has also failed to make it to the highest level yet in his career. Similar to Graves in size and experience, at 23 Geertsen still lacks a pro-caliber offensive game. Last season was his first spent entirely in the AHL, as Geertsen has previously spent extensive time in the ECHL.

Colorado Re-Signs Mason Geertsen

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  • Colorado has inked defenseman Mason Geertsen to a one-year deal, CapFriendly reports on Twitter. Instead of accepting his qualifying offer, Geertsen took a league minimum cap hit at the NHL level in exchange for a boost in his AHL pay from $70K to $85K.  The 23-year-old spent all of last season with the Avalanche’s minor league affiliate in San Antonio, recording three goals and six assists along with 117 penalty minutes in 72 games.

Patrik Nemeth May Not Be Ready For The Start Of Training Camp

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  • Avalanche defenseman Patrik Nemeth may not be ready for the start of training camp following multiple offseason shoulder surgeries, GM Joe Sakic told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post. The 26-year-old is Colorado’s last NHL restricted free agent and is coming off of a career year that saw him post 15 points (3-12-15) in 68 games while logging just shy of 20 minutes of ice time per game.  Nemeth was among the group that filed for salary arbitration earlier this week and is one year away from UFA eligibility.

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