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PHR Originals: 7/3/17 – 7/9/17

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Here’s a look back at some of the original content from PHR last week.

  • Holger writes about how the Rangers may want to figure out how to pay Ryan McDonagh as he’s only a couple years away from free agency. Currently playing for the Rangers at a bargain, McDonagh may be off to another spot should the Blueshirts not have the cap room to pay him.
  • What else could a back-to-back champion need in order to three-peat? Brian offers the Penguins scouts the Pens as to what they should be looking for to keep their dynasty running into a third consecutive season.
  • Zach wonders if the San Jose Sharks need to make another move to bolster a roster now missing mainstay Patrick Marleau.
  • Seth profiled Jaromir Jagr to see what a team would be getting with the 45-year-old who still appears to have a little bit left in the tank.
  • Mike showed how many players are still being compensated by their former team who paid them to go away.
  • In addition to hosting his weekly chat, Gavin asked our readers which available free agent was the best choice for teams seeking help.
  • Finally, I looked to see  if both the qualitative and quantitative data really show that the Chicago Blackhawks’ window is closing. Though some of the numbers are harsh, I think that things are not as grim as many want to believe.

Is The Window Closing For The Chicago Blackhawks?

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FanRag’s Carolyn Wilke outlines a few questions Chicago may have as they catch their breath following a head-spinning offseason. One such question Wilke revolves around general manager Stan Bowman who vowed changes following the Hawks’ four game sweep at the hands of the Nashville Predators. She points out that Bowman has been made to be the architect of the modern day dynasty, but trading away first round picks may be burning the Hawks. To be fair, Bowman’s deal with Arizona in 2015 to acquire Antoine Vermette netted a Stanley Cup–while yielding a first round pick.

But the past two exits, Wilke writes, may cast some doubt on Bowman’s abilities should they get bounced early again. The depth pieces he’s drafted or signed have not provided the help they need to sustain contender status. While Bowman has done a masterful job of keeping the team together, it’s often overlooked that a lot of the heavy lifting, and drafting was done by his predecessor, Dale Tallon, who was unceremoniously dumped in 2009. Worse, it’s well known that Bowman, and not Tallon, might have been more responsible for the qualifying offer deadline fiasco that ultimately cost Tallon his job.

To be sure, Tallon made his fair share of mistakes that didn’t help his case. But Bowman, who has offered some  questionable contracts that have gummed up the cap situation, is facing what is most likely his most telling season since taking over as GM. From a purely numerical standpoint, it doesn’t look promising.

Mar 14, 2017; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Chicago Blackhawks forward <a rel=

The Athletic’s Sean Tierney uses quantitative analysis to measure how Bowman did in his trades this offseason. Though they got younger and cheaper, Tierney uses Goals Above Replacement to illustrate just how much talent and production Chicago lost in the trade. When measuring the current roster versus its previous one, Tierney finds that there’s a steep drop off in production. Though Brandon Saad rises to the top of the GAR list,

The more startling metrics, using a model created by Dom Galamini. reveal that the Hawks playoff probability pre-trade (sans Marian Hossa) was 49%  Following Bowman’s moves, it dips to 37%.

Is this to say the Blackhawks are doomed? Hardly.

But what it does show is just how difficult it is to win in the National Hockey League. Bowman has done a good enough job with the cap, and yet, like every other general manager, has struggled with a few deals that have come back to haunt him. The Brent Seabrook deal immediately comes to mind.

His tightrope act following the 2010 Stanley Cup championship allowed the Hawks to keep key parts, and astutely pick new talent to fill it.  Saad was one of those pieces, selected in the 2011 draft.

So is the window really closing?  Numbers can’t certainly predict everything, especially since the metrics used to predict playoff probability didn’t include some players that may see time. Phenom Alex DeBrincat falls into that category, especially if his goal scoring prowess from juniors carries over to the pros. He may not score buckets of goals, but consistent contribution is what the Hawks need for the future, especially as the core ages.

Last year’s team was tops in the Western Conference, winning 50 games and potting 109 points. It’s hardly time to write their epitaph.

But there certainly are signs that their dominance won’t be what it once was.

Anaheim Ducks Sign Dennis Rasmussen

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The Anaheim Ducks have added some center depth, signing Dennis Rasmussen to a one-year contract. Rasmussen became a free agent when the Chicago Blackhawks decided not to issue him a qualifying offer last month. No financials have been released so far.

Playing in 68 games with the Blackhawks last season, Rasmussen scored just eight points but was an effective fourth line checker. With the Ducks seeing Nate Thompson move on to Ottawa, Rasmussen should be able to fill some of his role on the fringe of the roster. While he’s not a good faceoff man, he could still be used in a center role for the club behind Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Antoine Vermette.

That said, Vermette would likely fit better in a fourth-line role himself if the Ducks could find another center to jump in front of him. Rickard Rakell and Andrew Cogliano seem poised to stay on the wing, while Chris Wagner is clearly not ready for a third-line role. Either way, adding Rasmussen gives the team another option for their bottom-six, one with solid NHL experience on a winning team.

Evening Notes: Blackhawks, Flyers, Palmquist

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The Minnesota Wild have locked up 26 year-old defenseman Zach Palmquist to a one-year, two way contract, per Renaud Lavoie. The NHL value of the contract is $725,000. Palmquist has not yet played an NHL game, but played in 72 games for the AHL affiliate Iowa Wild last season. Palmquist is a low-scoring two-way defender, but at barely 6 foot tall, relies more on his skating and stick-checking to find success. He has a decent, accurate pass but cannot be relied upon for consistent offensive production. Still, he was trapped in a gigantic logjam with the glut of defensemen in the Minnesota system. Perhaps he finally gets his cup of tea as a bottom-pairing defender in 2017-18.

  • Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun-Times contemplates the effect the Chicago overhaul will have on on-ice performance next season. He’s quick to point out that the 2016-17 Blackhawks had the second-best record in franchise history, which is quite storied. That said, it seems unlikely that the Hawks will be able to replicate that regular season success with such incredible turnover. Lazarus may be a little premature in his worry about post-season contention or management firings, but GM Stan Bowman and coach Joel Quenneville will undoubtedly start feeling heat if the season starts off on a sour note. Losing Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson in particular have drawn ire from the fanbase, and it will be interesting to see how much faith ownership maintains if Chicago struggles early in the incredibly deep Central division. Although many of the moves were made out of salary cap necessity, the expectation is to win.
  • The Flyers never do seem to fully alleviate their goaltending troubles. Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer is quick to point out that free-agent acquisition Brian Elliott is not the answer to all their woes in between the pipes. He points out with particular concern the unlikelihood of Michal Neuvirth playing a full 40+ game split, which he hasn’t done outside of one season. Ford also attacks the tandem goaltending model, stating that it rarely finds success – though that is certainly a matter of debate. Elliott himself had his best season of his career for the 2011-12 Blues in a tandem with Jaroslav Halak. Ultimately, the franchise seems to be pinning its long-term hopes on either Carter Hart,18  or Felix Sandstrom, 20 – but neither is a sure thing. GM Ron Hextall is still not sold on Anthony Stolarz (even after protecting him in the expansion draft) and will watch his progress closely next season with the AHL Phantoms in Lehigh Valley.

Marcus Kruger Could Be Flipped By Vegas Golden Knights

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After acquiring Marcus Kruger in a long-expected trade yesterday, the Vegas Golden Knights may not be keeping him around very long. John Shannon of Sportsnet tweeted last night that the team had yet to make up their mind on whether to keep him or not, while Brian Hedger of NHL.com today reported that a second trade is likely for the former Blackhawks center.Marcus Kruger

Kruger was due a $2MM signing bonus on July 1st, meaning that even though he comes with a $3.08MM cap hit, any acquiring team would only have to pay out $1.475MM in actual salary this season. Next year, the salary drops on its own to $2.3MM. For a team that has the cap room, grabbing two years of Kruger for less than $4MM in total salary is extremely affordable.

Though Chicago couldn’t afford him going forward, Kruger remains a useful player. Even with little offensive upside an effective checking center is an important piece to any team, and one who comes at a discount and is still relatively young—Kruger turned 27 in May—would be interesting to several teams. He’s even received Selke votes as the top defensive forward twice in his career, and has two Stanley Cups under his belt already.

Teams like Pittsburgh, New York or even Anaheim could use a good checking center, though they each have internal options as well. Craig Custance of The Athletic chimes in with Carolina as a possible destination as well. It’s not like there would be a dozen teams breaking down the door to acquire him, but it shouldn’t be a hard flip if the Golden Knights choose to. That said, Vegas themselves could use him if they wanted. The Golden Knights have a large group of players who could play center for them next year, but few outside of William Karlsson are experienced in a purely checking role. If they wanted to stick players like Erik Haula and Jon Marchessault full-time on the wing, Kruger could be a useful piece down the middle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Chicago Trades Marcus Kruger to Las Vegas

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Chicago Blackhawks’ Marcus Kruger has been traded to the Vegas Golden Knights, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger. The trade will be for future considerations.

The long-expected trade was expected several weeks ago when the Blackhawks worked out a side deal with the Golden Knights and allowed defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk to be exposed in the expansion draft. Vegas took the young defenseman and flipped him to the Carolina Hurricanes with a seventh-round pick in 2018 for a 2017 second-round pick. The Golden Knights used that pick on Jake Leschyshyn. The original agreement had the Golden Knights taking on Kruger’s contract of $3.08MM for the next two seasons. Evidently, Chicago waited until after they paid him his $2MM signing bonus yesterday before completing the transaction.

In Kruger, Vegas gets a 27-year-old center who played in 70 games last year for the Blackhawks, scoring five goals and adding 12 assists. He is a defensive forward, who was always trusted to close out games when the team was leading. He is known as a depth player that makes good teams great. How he will fit into the Golden Knights plans is unknown unless their plan is to attempt to flip him.

 

The Prettiest And Ugliest Contracts Of July 1

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Although hindsight is usually the only way to be certain as to when a deal flops, it seems reasonable to make an immediate assessment as to what deals will backfire or pay dividends. Today was a far more reserved July 1st than the league has accustomed itself to, but there are still a few contracts that stick out – for better or for worse.

 

Pretty: Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks – $800,000, 1 year.

This doesn’t seem fair. Chicago has been trapped in cap jail, and suddenly, here arrives a productive asset at nearly no cost. Sharp, coming off an injury-filled season, is coming back to the Windy City at a dirt-cheap rate. If he can even find half of the production he had during his last outing, this is a monumental steal. There’s no risk here, and a ton of upside. He still has the hands and hockey IQ to contribute.

Ugly: Steve Mason – Winnipeg Jets – $4,1 MM per, 2 years

Winnipeg was seemingly the last team standing when the music stopped playing. With a goaltending market that inspired no one, the Jets decided today to place their faith in Steve Mason. Coming off a .908 save percentage year, it’s hard to see him doing much worse. But behind the Winnipeg defense, it’s hard to see him doing much better. The pricetag is what really seals this as poor value relative to play. Luckily, if things don’t pan out, it’s only for two seasons. Connor Hellebuyck better prepare himself just in case. Taken in tandem with the highly questionable Dmitry Kulikov contract, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff maybe should have taken the day off.

Pretty: Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers – $2.5 MM per, 1 year

Vrbata is absolutely a top-six winger, and he was signed for bottom-six money. He can assist a powerplay, and slot up and down a lineup as needed. Florida desperately needed to re-coup some scoring on the cheap after letting so many of their top point-getters walk or be lost to Vegas. With bonuses added in, this becomes a good prove-it deal for Vrbata as well. Solid value was found here for both parties and for a 20 goal, 55 point player, Florida will happily run away from this one.

Ugly: Trevor Daley – Detroit – $3.18MM per, 3 years

Daley was bereft of ice time in these playoffs, and he was competing with some really underperforming defensemen. It’s not like he had a good regular season either – his Corsi For % fell off a proverbial cliff (53.7 to 46.1), and the eye test certainly agreed. He put up decent points, 5 goals and 14 assists through 56 contests, and he can still skate well enough. But long are the days where he can make a difference on special teams or drive an offense with confidence. His turnover rate and inconsistency are not what Detroit needed to stabilize the back-end, and Daley will be 36 at the conclusion of the deal. The last time Daley cut a lucrative free agent deal, Chicago had to offload him due to poor play.

Pretty: Kevin Shattenkirk – New York Rangers – $6.65MM per, 4 years

The money could end up being a slight overpayment, but at the moment it is solid value. Shattenkirk finished 4th in points among defensemen last season and St. Louis never looked the same after he left. He could instantly and single-handedly transform the Rangers’ defense from the jumbled mess they were last season. He will reliably feed the puck to the forward group, and be the quarterback of the Ranger powerplay. What makes this a beautiful deal, however, is the term. If Shattenkirk has a bad year or doesn’t fit the system, New York is not on the hook for eternity. One of the biggest pitfalls in free agency with the bigger names is offering far too many years on contracts. Time and time again, it burns teams who were looking to attract a big fish. GM Jeff Gorton deserves credit here for not going insane with the length, although he was helped by Shattenkirk’s strong desire to return home.

Ugly: Dan Girardi – Tampa Bay – $3 MM per, 2 years

Nothing about this deal makes sense. Girardi earned his buyout from New York through brutal play and horrible possession numbers. Of all the NHL defensemen who played more than 40 games, only Rasmus Ristolainen of Buffalo and Luke Schenn of Arizona had worse Corsi Against per 60 minutes – Girardi finished with 65.11 (versus a 51.67 CF60). By no metric other than shot blocks was he an effective player. He might be worth a flier in hopes of regaining form, but he’s not worth much more. This agreement is made even worse by the fact that Girardi will be stealing valuable playing time from a solid young defenseman like Slater Koekkoek or Jake Dotchin. Combined with the Chris Kunitz signing, this is a team that didn’t get any younger, or any better.

2017 NHL Free Agency Tracker

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Stay with PHR for all of the free agency signings this off-season. As of noon ET on July 1st, unrestricted free agency is open, but not before many extensions earlier in June. This page serves to organize everything in one spot, and are linked to the PHR story that corresponds with the signing. All July signings will be separated by date while June signings are organized alphabetically by team. It will be updated as soon as stories post.

Please note that signings on this list start on June 12.

July 1st:

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Chicago Blackhawks Sign J-F Berube, Jordan Oesterle, Lance Bouma

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The Chicago Blackhawks brought Patrick Sharp back into the fold earlier, and also have announced three other signings. Jean-Francois Berube, Jordan Oesterle and Lance Bouma will join the club, adding a backup goaltender, bottom six forward and depth defenseman to the team as they look to work around their current cap problems. Both Berube and Oesterle will be on two-year deals, with Berube earning $1.5MM per season while Oesterle gets the minimum of $650K. Bouma, recently bought out by the Calgary Flames will be on a one-year deal, though his salary has yet to be announced.

Berube was a Group VI free agent this summer after being selected in the expansion draft by the Vegas Golden Knights. The 25-year old will join Corey Crawford and Anton Forsberg in the Chicago net, attempting to at least get some more playing time than he’s seen so far in his career. In 21 career games, he’s recorded a .900 save percentage and gone 6-4-3.

Oesterle, another Group VI free agent from the Edmonton Oilers, got into just two games last season at the NHL level. A strong performer in the minor leagues, the defenseman could battle for a spot in Chicago next season. He finished with seven goals and 25 assists in 44 AHL games for the Bakersfield Condors last year.

Bouma may be the most interesting of the three, after being bought out by the Calgary Flames this week. A third-round selection in 2008, Bouma actually put up a 34-point season in 2014-15 before settling into a much reduced role the last couple of years. If the Blackhawks can unlock any of that scoring potential once again, they could have an extremely cheap but effective option for their bottom six next year.

Chicago Blackhawks Bring Back Patrick Sharp

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As indicated by reports this morning, the Chicago Blackhawks have indeed signed Patrick Sharp. After a two-year hiatus with the Dallas Stars, the three-time Stanley Cup winner is back home in Chicago to the tune of just $1MM. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal is for one year and carries an $800K base salary with $200K in bonuses for games played.

This could be quite the steal for the Blackhawks, given that Sharp scored 78 points in his last fully healthy season in Chicago. While Sharp struggled with injuries and inconsistency last season in Dallas, he posted 55 points in his first season with the team the year before and another 43 in just 68 games in his final season in Chicago. Armed with a top-end shot, Sharp was always the beneficiary of great offensive linemates on the Blackhawks and there is no reason to think he won’t excel again, even if he has lost a step.

Sharp becomes the second player this week to re-join the Blackhawks after the team re-acquired Brandon Saad from the Columbus Blue Jackets in a deal that saw Artemi Panarin shipped out of town. While neither Sharp nor Saad could single-handedly make up for the loss of offense from Panarin’s departure, together the two may be able to get the job done if they can re-ignite the old chemistry they had with the likes of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. 

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