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Snapshots: Keith Gretzky, Quebec Expansion, Couture

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In an article appearing on Today’s Slapshot – a division of The FanRag Sports Network – Craig Morgan, who also covers Arizona for AZSports.com, discusses several topics that relate in some way to the Coyotes. Interestingly, Morgan writes about Keith Gretzky, who was recently hired as an assistant GM in Edmonton and who was the director of amateur scouting for the Coyotes from 2007 – 2011 and oversaw the team’s drafts during that time. Gretzky was hired by the Oilers in part due to his scouting experience and success running the drafts for Arizona and more recently Boston. But Morgan says Gretzky’s successes at the draft may be overstated.

Despite success in the first round, where the Coyotes selected the likes of Kyle Turris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Connor Murphy, the team has struggled to find NHL talent in the lower rounds. According to Morgan, new Coyotes GM John Chayka has said a team’s ability to draft is measured in the later rounds. Clubs need to be able to identify and develop prospects outside of the draft’s first round in order to sustain on-ice success.

During his tenure with the Coyotes, the team selected 29 players in rounds two through seven, according to the article. Of that group, only four have made it to the NHL and just two are still in the Coyotes organization.

Teams typically need to draft and develop two or three NHL contributors every year in order to keep the pipeline of affordable young talent flowing. Even if your first-round pick pans out, clubs need at least one more of their selections to hit for the draft to be considered fruitful. If you aren’t hitting on your draft choices then it’s likely the team will have to go the free agent route to flesh out its roster and consequently put themselves in a salary cap bind. Teams like the Coyotes simply can’t afford to do that.

Now Morgan does go on to say Gretzky’s track record with Arizona does not necessarily have anything to do with the job he did in Boston. Nor is it an indicator of how he’ll perform as the assistant GM in Edmonton.

For more from Morgan and elsewhere in the NHL:

  • Even though they were not awarded an expansion franchise for 2017-18, the group behind the Quebec bid is not giving up on bringing an NHL franchise to Quebec City. Quebec likely will eventually get a franchise, though it may not be via expansion. I believe the league wants to also place a team in Seattle and that would probably be through expansion. Quebec would then be in a position to take in a club looking to relocate. Most of the teams that have been recently linked to relocation currently reside in the East. In order to gain balance between the two conferences, expanding from 15 – 16 clubs in the West is the simplest solution, while keeping Quebec as a fallback in the event of relocation.
  • In a piece for The Players Tribune, San Jose forward Logan Couture lists the six defensive players he considers the toughest to match-up against. Not surprisingly, all of his choices reside with him in the Western Conference, including one who also suits up for the Sharks. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices and it’s easy to understand the apparent western bias since he sees the guys in his own conference at least two times more often during the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Brent Burns and Duncan Keith are elite players who impact the game in all three zones. Roman Josi is rapidly developing into one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Mark Giordano – Couture has a funny story about the Flames standout – might be a late-bloomer but he is undoubtedly a quality player. Finally, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews may well be the best two-way pivots in the game today.

Revisiting Vancouver’s Search For Scoring Line Wing

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With franchise cornerstones Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin each nearing the end of their great careers and after missing the postseason by a whopping 12 points, it would appear the Vancouver Canucks should strongly consider tearing down then rebuilding their roster. Instead, Vancouver seems to be trying to walk the fine line between being competitive today while still trying to add youth to the organization to make them better tomorrow. The signing of Loui Eriksson and the trade for Erik Gudbranson – a deal that cost Vancouver young forward Jared McCann and a second-round pick – reinforces the idea the Canucks want to try to compete for a playoff berth this year, even if they sacrifice young talent to do so.

Along those lines, GM Jim Benning has been open about his efforts to add a scoring line winger, whether by trade or by signing one of the few remaining quality free agent forwards on the market, in an attempt to further improve his club’s chances at the postseason. The club has been linked to potential trade target Evander Kane, among others, this summer but James O’Brien, writing for NBC Sports, argues that Vancouver should steer clear of the trade market in their search for an “experienced 15-20 goal-scorer,” and instead add one of the skilled forwards left in free agency.

Vancouver likely has little chance to make the postseason in a division that includes three, near-certain playoff teams and three others who may have made enough roster improvements this summer to realistically challenge. Defending Western Conference champion San Jose should be a near lock for the playoffs, as should Los Angeles and Anaheim. Arizona, Calgary and Edmonton each made major moves that could result in postseason contention. With the playoffs unlikely, Vancouver shouldn’t give up any of the few valuable assets they have in exchange for a marginal increase in their postseason odds this year.

Considering a reunion with UFA Radim Vrbata is unlikely, signing one of Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler – two of PHR’s five top remaining UFA’s – would improve the Canucks on the ice for the 2016-17 campaign and won’t cost the team anything other than cash. Additionally, if either player has a productive season for Vancouver, the Canucks could move them at the deadline for future assets. Remember that Hudler, a pending free agent at the time, was dealt from Calgary to the Panthers for second and fourth-round draft choices. That’s exactly the type of move a club like Vancouver should make as opposed to dealing for a veteran player under contract long term.

Hudler, a three-time 20-goal-scorer, had a down season in 2015-16 but is just one year removed from a 31-goal campaign with the Flames. He still tallied 16 goals last year in 72 games, splitting the season with Calgary and Florida. But even in a “down” year, his goal-scoring rate was still comfortably that of a top-six winger. Hudler averaged 0.79 G/60 this past season, a total which ranked 91st overall among forwards who saw at least 500 minutes of even strength ice time. With 30 teams in the league, each with three top-line players, Hudler’s goal production ranks just outside what you would expect from a first-liner.

Pirri averaged 0.74 G/60 last season, good for the 105th best rate among forwards who played 500 minutes at even strength. As with Hudler, in terms of goal scoring alone Pirri is comfortably a second-line player. His career rate of 0.91 G/60 suggests that given more ice time, Pirri would easily exceed 20 goals in a full season.

If Vancouver is simply looking for a player who can put the puck in the net, signing Hudler or Pirri to a one-year deal makes far more sense than giving up assets to acquire a goal-scorer via trade. Considering how late in the summer we are and after seeing how much of a pay cut Sam Gagner took after a lackluster season, it’s likely Hudler is only worth around $2MM per at this point. Pirri probably would sign for less than that figure. Additionally, assuming the club signs one of those free agent wingers and they go on to produce solid numbers, the value Vancouver could extract from a contender at the deadline makes this route far and away the better option for a team that should be focusing more on the future than the present.

 

 

 

Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba

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Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.

Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.

  • Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
  • Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
  • Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
  • Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely  he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM

Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.

Roster Crunch: Pacific Division

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While the NHL season is still more than two months away, it seems as though most teams have finished their free agent shopping and are now focused internally on roster decisions they’ll have to make. We’ll take a look at some of the options teams will have this fall, starting with the Pacific Division.

Anaheim Ducks – 2015-16 division winners Anaheim were discussed at length last weekend, with seemingly way too many bodies than roster spots on their blueline. With between seven and ten players who deserve to be in the NHL next season (depending on how you feel about youngsters Shea Theodore and Andy Welinski), the team is still expected to make a move to shore up their forward group.

Los Angeles Kings – Like the Ducks, the Kings have quite a few options on their back-end after signing Tom Gilbert to a one-year contract.  With four spots locked up between Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb, the last two will be some combination of Gilbert, veteran Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene. That’s to say nothing of NCAA transplant Paul LaDue who will figure into the Kings’ plans before long.

San Jose Sharks – It’s said that depth down the middle is a key to success in the NHL, and the Sharks have that in spades.  It looks like they’ll go into next season with at least six forwards who are capable of playing center. Often last season the top line was made up of three of them, with Joe Thornton between Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. If the team wants to move the young Hertl back to his natural position (as they did at points last season), they’ll have to find ice-time for him behind Thornton and Logan Couture.

Arizona Coyotes – The crunch has already started to affect Arizona, as the team bought out veteran Antoine Vermette recently to open up a spot for one of their young forwards. With Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak both leaving junior after huge seasons, they’ll look to make the jump to the NHL this season. The Coyotes may ice one of the youngest lines in the league this year, if Strome ends up between Max Domi and Anthony Duclair like many have speculated. Another spot could open up if RFA Tobias Rieder ends up overseas next season, as has been rumored lately.

Calgary Flames – Will top pick Matthew Tkachuk break camp with the Flames, and where will he play? Many eyes will be focused on the second-generation NHLer this fall, as he tries to force his way onto the Flames roster. Otherwise, the Flames have some decisions to make on the blueline if Ladislav Smid declares himself healthy enough to start the season and Dennis Wideman remains on the roster. Jyrki Jokipakka hopes he did enough last season to deserve a spot, but if both veterans are around when October 12th roles around, he may find himself on the outside looking in.

Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are one of the hardest teams to figure out in the league, as they seem caught somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend. Outside of their top-four, it’ll be a battle for the defensemen in camp to lock up a spot.  Luca Sbisa has a contract that will probably guarantee him a spot, but his diminished play and injury history makes him a poor choice for the Canucks. If they decide to contend, icing him every night ahead of younger, more effective defensemen seems unwise.

Edmonton Oilers – It’s been long said that the Oilers don’t have any defensemen, and while it may still be figuratively true based on the overall skill, the team actually has too many bodies for their back end under contract. After trading for Adam Larsson, the team has eight defenders worthy of NHL time, including Jordan Oesterle who many believe proved his ability last season. One of them though, former captain Andrew Ference, may be on his own way out as he has stated more than once he’s heading to retirement if the Oilers’ buy him out.  They haven’t been able to yet because of Ference’s lingering injury, but the two sides should come to an agreement before camp.

Snapshots: Shinkaruk, Yamamoto

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Just prior to the trade deadline in February, the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks executed an interesting, challenge-type trade. The Flames dealt C Markus Granlund, a player they originally selected in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, to the Canucks for their 2013 1st round pick, Hunter Shinkaruk.

Granlund had failed to earn a regular role with the Flames and at the time of the deal didn’t seem to be considered much of a prospect anymore. As a more recent draft selection, Shinkaruk still had the look of a solid prospect, even if there may be more risk associated with his development.

Nevertheless, Shinkaruk now gets to suit up in his hometown playing for the team he grew up rooting for and is intent on earning a regular role on the wing in Calgary, according to this piece from the team’s website. Given the talented young pivots the Flames have – Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett specifically – Shinkaruk should have an excellent opportunity to not only make the club but to produce as well.

Calgary Depth Chart

Now, more from around the NHL, focusing particularly on prospects.

  • The Anaheim Ducks have signed their 2015 3rd round pick, RW Deven Sideroff to an ELC. According to General Fanager, Sideroff’s contract will max out at an AAV of $925,000 should he earn his performance bonuses. Sideroff was chosen 84th overall out of Kamploops in the WHL and finished his junior career with 39 goals and 109 points in 141 games. He also appeared in one contest with Anaheim’s AHL affiliate, the San Diego Gulls, and will likely spend much of the upcoming season there.
  • Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News has an interesting piece on 2017 draft prospect Kailer Yamamoto, who some scouts “cautiously” compare to Johnny Gaudreau. Yamamoto, grew up in the Spokane, Washington area and was taught to skate by the mother of Tampa Bay Lightning forward Tyler Johnson. Yamamoto is close with Johnson and considers the Lighting sniper to be a “role model”. While it’s premature and probably unfair to compare Yamamoto to any established NHL player, much less one of Gaudreau’s caliber, it does seem quite possible we’ll hear his name called early on during the 2017 draft.

Minor Signings

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Here’s the latest on minor free agent signings, and one player to accept a tryout:

  • James Mirtle reports that defenseman Stu Bickel, 29, has agreed to a tryout with the Anaheim Ducks. Bickel has no goals, but 10 assists in 76 career NHL games for the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild. He last appeared in the NHL in 2015. Bickel was originally signed by the Ducks as an undrafted free agent in 2008.
  • General Fanager tweets that forward Danny Kristo has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues. It will be a one-year, two-way contract. Kristo’s salary will come in at $575K in the NHL, and $175K in the AHL. At 26, he’s never played a game in the NHL, despite being a secound round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2008. Kristo spent last year with the Blues’ AHL affiliates, the Chicago Wolves.
  • Gold Star Sports Management say their client Roman Dyukov has signed a one-year contract with the Calgary Flames. The 20 year old Belarussian defenseman scored eight points in 32 games for Yunior Minsk last year, and played at the IIHF World Championships.

 

Snapshots: St. Louis, Barrie, Marner

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Sixteen years ago today was one to remember for the Tampa Bay Lightning, as on July 31st, 2000 they signed Martin St. Louis after he’d been released by the Calgary Flames.  One of the biggest little-men in NHL history, the 5’8″ St. Louis would go on to score 953 points for the Lightning, and helped lead them to their first and only Stanley Cup championship in 2004.  Their all-time leading scorer, and a two-time Olympian, St. Louis finished his career with the New York Rangers and is currently #71 on the all-time points list. He’s got a good case for a hall-of-fame induction eventually, and it’s all because Tampa Bay gave the diminutive forward a second-chance in the NHL.

  • The only player to have reached salary arbitration this year, Tyson Barrie had his hearing on Friday to determine his cost for the upcoming season. The arbitrator had 48 hours to make her decision, and that window will come to an end at 1:30pm today central time. We profiled Barrie’s case last week, and showed how well he compares to some of the elite offensive defensemen in the league. Now, with only a few hours left (as of this writing) to negotiate a deal, it’s coming down to the wire for the two sides to reconcile their perceived differences.
  • Mitch Marner, the sometimes-forgotten uber-prospect in the Maple Leafs system is in an interesting situation this season; the 19-year old is too young for the AHL, and must either crack the NHL roster or go back to junior to play for the OHL’s London Knights. When asked about his possible play at this year’s World Junior Championship, Marner intimated that he’s doing everything he can to stay in the NHL. “It’s not up to me. If I am in the OHL, then I am going to play and look forward to it.”  Fellow top-prospect Dylan Strome was much less reserved about his hopes for next year when he was asked the same thing by Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun: “I feel like I’m done with junior, and don’t want to be there next year, but if Arizona thinks it’s best for me, I don’t have a choice.” Strome and Marner were picked third and fourth overall in the 2015 draft, following Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, who have both already made an impact at the NHL level.

Why is Jiri Hudler Still A Free Agent?

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When PHR set out to rank the top 50 unrestricted free agents, Jiri Hudler was ranked 18th and expected to be snapped up at a reasonable price. Though some reports have him possibly talking to the Vancouver Canucks, the interest for the 32-year-old forward is tepid.

So what gives?

Hudler came up with the Detroit Red Wings, and was a strong contributor to their Stanley Cup winning season in 2007-08, and then again in 2008-09 when they fell short of a repeat championship. After a one-year hiatus in the KHL during the 2009-10 season, Hudler returned to the Red Wings until the 2011-12 season. At a glance, his numbers looked like this:

  • 2007-08: 42 points (13-29)
  • 2008-09: 57 points (23-34)
  • 2010-11:  37 points (10-27)
  • 2011-12:  50 points (25-25)

Though the Red Wings didn’t offer him another contract following the 2011-12 season, Calgary did at a tune of four years, $16MM. Hudler remained a solid contributor, hitting his career high in 2014-15 with 76 points (31-45). A season prior, he registered 54 points (17-37).

Hudler’s performance fell off in 2015-16, notching 35 points (10-25) in 53 games with Calgary before being traded to Florida. There, Hudler had 11 points (6-5) in 19 games before only adding an assist in six playoff games. He had 46 points in 72 games but it was a far cry from his previous season. Florida chose to let him walk.

So why, despite boasting better numbers than several free agents already signed, does Hudler remain unemployed?

Is it Inconsistency?

Back in 2013, several writers debated whether the Red Wings should have re-signed Hudler instead of letting him go to Calgary, where he would go on to have some steady seasons. The offer from Detroit was less than what Calgary offered by $800K per season.

With Florida, he was never even offered a chance back. Despite producing well, and apparently fitting in well with the Panthers following their acquisition, there wasn’t even a hint of an extension.

Some of the problem might be his lack of defensive responsibility. Hudler was paid to put up points, so when the scoring decreased, so did the interest. Back in June, CSN Philly’s Greg Paone wrote that Hudler would have struggled in Dave Hakstol’s system should he have signed with the Flyers. Two weeks ago, Tal Pinchevsky argued in an ESPN article that he would provide production at a discount, and his playoff struggle in Florida shouldn’t be an indictment on his overall postseason performance, pointing out that Hudler had 8 points in 11 playoff games with Calgary in 2015.

Perhaps Kevin Allen summed up what most teams debated before free agency: Would they be getting the 76 point Hudler or the 46 point Hudler?

Summarizing the theories, it appears that Hudler’s decrease in production, his defensive deficiencies, and an underwhelming playoff performance with Florida all had a hand in his current predicament.

The Czech winger should find a landing spot somewhere, especially since Sam Gagner is close to a deal with the Blue Jackets. Gagner’s deal will certainly gauge what Hudler could expect. The only certainty is that it won’t come close to what he made a season ago.

Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley

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Evander Kane’s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.

It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.

More notes emanating around the NHL…..

  • After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom  and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
  • The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
  • The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
  • Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.

 

 

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