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Kirill Kaprizov Wins Calder Trophy

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The NHL Awards Show began with recognizing arguably the most exciting player in the league this season. Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov has won the Calder Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year. Kaprizov, 24, recorded 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games in just his first season in North America. He received 99 of a possible 100 first-place votes for the award.

Minnesota’s long wait for Kaprizov to make the jump from the KHL to the NHL paid off, as his talent translated perfectly to the North American game. Kaprizov’s dynamic skating and offensive instincts helped to completely re-invent the Wild’s style of play and ultimately led them to the postseason. Kaprizov finished first in goals and points for Minnesota this season while leading all forwards in time on ice. For his efforts, not only did Kaprizov take home the Calder, but he also was named to the All-Rookie Team, finished fourth among left wings in All-Star Team voting, and even received enough MVP votes to tie for fifteenth in Hart Trophy voting.

Behind Kaprizov, Dallas’ Jason Robertson received the vast majority of second-place votes and Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic received the vast majority of third-place votes. Other candidates included Ottawa’s Joshua Norris and the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin.

Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Los Angeles Kings have come a long way since the last Expansion Draft… a long way in the wrong direction. After winning Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014 and topping 100 points in 2016, the Kings were still clinging to their hopes of remaining contenders when the Vegas Golden Knights made their expansion selections in 2017. It was arguably at that point that things began to unravel for the franchise. Even with four defensemen protected, all of whom were well worth it at the time but only one of whom remains on the team now, Vegas still stole from the blue line with the reliable Brayden McNabb. McNabb has been a fixture for the Knights ever since; meanwhile, L.A. has watched as protected players Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez, Derek Forbort, and Jeff Carter all departed.

After years in the basement of the league, the Kings are now on their way back to relevance, fueled by a few holdover veterans, a couple new core players, and a treasure trove of talented youth. Their Cup days may be well behind them, but there are brighter days ahead – and expansion will not slow them down. L.A.’s current roster has so few established assets and is so heavy in exempt young players, the Kings face little risk in the impending draft. By their recent standards, they will lose a good player and maybe even a young player, but by league standards they should be one of the teams least impacted. This is not a roster where the Seattle Kraken will be able to find their own McNabb.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Lias Andersson, Andreas Athanasiou, Dustin Brown, Michael Eyssimont, Martin Frk, Carl Grundstrom, Alex Iafallo, Boko Imama, Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Matt Luff, Trevor Moore, Drake Rymsha, Austin Wagner

Defense:
Drew Doughty (NMC), Kale Clague, Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid, Jacob Moverare, Matt Roy, Austin Strand, Sean Walker

Goalies:
Jonathan Quick, Calvin Petersen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

None

Notable Exemptions

D Michael Anderson, F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, D Tobias Bjornfot, F Quinton Byfield, F Samuel Fagemo, F Arthur Kaliyev, F Rasmus Kupari, F Tyler Madden, D Markus Phillips, F Vladimir Tkachyov, F Akil Thomas, F Alex Turcotte, F Gabriel Vilardi

Key Decisions

The most difficult question for the Kings as they face expansion is the first one: what is their overall approach? A team that is currently straddling the line between rebuild and playoff pursuit. L.A. is loaded with talented prospects and certainly values their youth, but they are also loaded with cap space and have sworn to add more veteran talent this off-season. When making decisions on who to protect and who to expose, they need to decide what the next step for the franchise is. Will they risk established veterans, knowing it would be a step back in their return to relevance? Are they comfortable enough in their deep stable of prospect to expose unproven young players instead?

The x-factor in this whole conversation is young defenseman Clague, as the Kings’ decision on him will also determine whether they protect three defensemen and seven forwards or eight skaters, including Clague as defenseman No. 4? A well-regarded prospect, Clague has been given opportunities in L.A. but has little to show for it. The 23-year-old was a second-round pick in 2016 and was heralded as a skilled, puck-moving defenseman, but so far that ability has not appeared at the NHL level. Could Clague blossom in Seattle if the Kings let him go? Sure. However, they have numerous other impressive defense prospects in the system to replace him. Protecting Clague also comes at a steep cost: three forward slots. If Clague is not exposed, several other young forwards are.

Assume then that Clague is exposed as the Kings go with three defenseman: icon Doughty and affordable top-four defenders Roy and Walker. Maatta brought needed veteran presence and stability to L.A. this year and MacDermind is an impressive physical specimen, but neither is worth protecting over Clague, nevertheless three forwards.

Up front, the locks are simple. Star center Kopitar, the recently-extended Iafallo, and young standout Kempe are all safe. Beyond that, the final four names could be anyone from a long list (which is why protecting Clague remains a possibility however unlikely.) The first decision will be the most polarizing, as it pertains to the up-and-down Brown. A career King, Brown started to decline even before the last Expansion Draft and was left exposed as L.A. hoped they might be rid of his long-term contract. However, in the years since he has returned to form, playing at a 50+ point full-season pace this year for the third time in four seasons. Brown’s contract is also down to just one year, no longer a detriment to the team. If there were only four forwards to protect, this becomes a more difficult decision, but with seven spots it is likely that Brown stays a King for at least one more season, even if not all fans will be happy about it. His experience and leadership is invaluable to the young team and he would be an easy target for Seattle if exposed.

The remaining three forward spots are a more interesting debate. Athanasiou and Moore, though older than some of the other candidates, are still relatively young and entering the primes of their careers. Each played well in his first season in Los Angeles, recording a matching 23 points to tie for fifth in scoring among Kings forwards. With that said, both are restricted free agents as well and contract negotiations could come into play. However, neither player meets the exposure requirements to fill the quota and are superior players to the other candidates, making them useless to expose other than to distract the Kraken from other options.

The Kings do have four forwards that meet the exposure criteria, two of whom must be protected. Grundstrom, Lizotte, Wagner, and mid-season trade addition Lemieux all satisfy the exposure requirements, but which two should fill that position? There is some reason to believe that Lizotte will. The undersized forward earned a suspiciously quick extension after a down year, which could mean that the Kings had ulterior motives. There is also something to be said for the Kings adding Lemieux when the team already had physical bottom-six wingers in Grudstrom and Wagner. Lemieux also may have been brought in for expansions purposes. And yet, Wagner is probably the least valuable player of the group and likely to be exposed.

Grundstrom stands out as an outlier. The youngest of the group, Grundstrom was a 2016 second-rounder taken just six spots behind Clague. A physical forward with offensive touch, Grundstrom made the most of limited ice time in just 47 games to lead this group of four in scoring, finish among the top nine forwards in goals and points, and lead the team in hits. Grudnstrom is the favorite to be protected.

Of course, there is one more forward to consider and that is impending RFA Andersson. The 2017 No. 7 overall pick came to L.A. after struggling in New York and unfortunately found more of the same. He recorded just six points in 23 games, matching a career high but still falling short of expectations. A one-dimensional offensive player, Andersson is a difficult young asset to hand starts and ice time. Yet, his draft stock implies immense potential and at 22 years old he could still turn into a star elsewhere. Can the Kings risk giving him up?

In net, the decision is much easier than elsewhere on the roster. Despite his longevity and career achievements, Quick is currently just an overpaid backup. His play has actually been improving and L.A. may not be as desperate to move his contract as they once were, but there is no question that young Peterson is the current and future starter and will be protected.

Projected Protection List

F Andreas Athanasiou
F Dustin Brown
F Carl Grundstrom
F Alex Iafallo
F Adrian Kempe
F Anze Kopitar
F Trevor Moore

D Drew Doughty (NMC)
D Matt Roy 
D Sean Walker

G Calvin Petersen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Austin Wagner

Defensemen (2): Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid

At the end of the day, the Kings need to focus on themselves and what they know they have rather than what could be. Could a Clague or Andersson be selected by Seattle and become a great player? Sure. Could they also go to Seattle and not even be able to crack the roster, ending up back in L.A. or elsewhere on waivers? Of course. What the Kings know to be true is that they have the means to protect all of their main contributors from this past year, when the team took a major step forward, and that they have arguably the deepest and most talented pipeline in the NHL to replace any departing young player.

Whether it is taking a risk on a Clague or Andersson, adding a role player like Lemieux, Wagner, MacDermid, or Strand or swinging for the fences and hoping for a resurgence from Quick or Maatta, the Kraken have options. Their decision may be even harder than L.A.’s, who should feel confident moving forward without whoever Seattle lands on.

Trade Rumors: Jones, Foegele, Tkachuk

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A Seth Jones trade seems like a foregone conclusion this off-season. The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman has stated that he will not sign an extension before his current contract expires after the 2021-22 and will test the free agent market, all but guaranteeing that he will not re-sign with the team. The retooling Blue Jackets are not going to watch another star player walk away as they get nothing in return and recognize that Jones’ value will be much higher this summer as opposed to dealing him in-season. Columbus’ leverage is damaged by Jones’ public statements, but the team will try to create a bidding war to drive up the price. There should be no shortage of interest and one team is already hot on the trail. In his latest “31 Thoughts” column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that the Philadelphia Flyers are “definitely” in on Jones and that it isn’t exactly a secret either. Friedman states that there is a lot of chatter surrounding a potential Jones-to-Philly deal already. The Flyers have been open about their desire to add another top pair defenseman across from Ivan Provorov and have a number of talented young roster players and a deep pipeline to offer Columbus whatever they want. In need of top center, perhaps the Blue Jackets will buy low on 2017 second overall pick Nolan Patrick as part of a package for Jones, a top-five pick himself.

  • Another player on the trade block, though not as publicly as Jones, is Carolina Hurricanes forward Warren Foegele. Foegele is looking to play a bigger role and on a deep Hurricanes roster he has been limited to bottom-six responsibilities. At first it seemed like Carolina may be reluctant to move the underrated forward, but it seems the tides are turning. Friedman believes that the ’Canes are going to re-shape their bottom-six after falling short in the playoffs once again and that Foegele’s unofficial trade request may just be honored. He reports that trade talks are occurring between Carolina and Foegele suitors. Friedman adds that impending unrestricted free agent Jordan Martinook is another player unlikely to return to Raleigh next season.
  • One player that Friedman does not see moving: Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk. While this may seem like common sense, the Flames are listening to all offers right now and could be making some major changes this summer. There were also whispers that Tkachuk himself may want to leave, however those rumors were met with swift and firm denials. As Friedman points out, that is a contrasting approach to how other teams have treated players who have recently asked to leave, such as Jones or Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson, implying that the rumors are in fact false. Friedman reports that Tkachuk’s name never came up in Calgary’s Pierre-Luc Dubois negotiations and the team has zero interest in trading him.

League Notes: Realignment, Canceled Events, ESPN

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Though the NHL approved the plan all the way back in December 2018, not long after accepting Seattle’s expansion bid, it has been a long time since realignment plans have been reiterated. In fact, since the last update on the league’s post-expansion structure, there was a complete overhaul of the league’s conferences and divisions for the 2020-21 season. However, everything will return to normal next year with the unchanged Atlantic and Metropolitan Divisions making up the Eastern Conference and finally an equal 16 teams in the Western Conference with the Central and Pacific Divisions. Commissioner Gary Bettman confirmed today that the plan remains for the only team to move to be the Arizona Coyotes. Although Phoenix is more closely located to four Pacific cities than any Central cities, it is also closer to those Central cities than any other Pacific city, including newcomer Seattle. The Coyotes may be the odd man out, but a change of scenery can’t hurt for a team that has struggled to make the playoffs out of the Pacific for the better part of a decade.

  • When the NHL announced a number of events for the 2021-22 season earlier today, there were a couple of curious absences. The league revealed a Stadium Series game in Nashville and that All-Star Weekend will belong to Vegas, thereby skipping over the hosts for those canceled 2020-21 events. The Carolina Hurricanes were set to host an outdoor game this year, but now have no such event planned. However, Bettman did specifically mention that Raleigh will get it’s Stadium Series (or perhaps Winter Classic) game in the near future. There is not as much clarity for the Florida Panthers. The 2021 All-Star Game was supposed to take place in Sunrise, but now it will be on the other side of the country and there has been no explanation by the league as to why nor as to future plans for the Panthers to host. George Richards of Florida Hockey Now surmises that the potential for the All-Star Game to lead into the Olympic break, if the NHL attends, made a move west, where flights to China would be far shorter than from Florida, a sensible move. However, he also notes that Florida team president Matt Caldwell was certain the All-Star game would belong to the Panthers, so there is some confusion. In all likelihood, Florida will play host to the All-Star game in the near future, just as Carolina will host an outdoor game, but until there is an official announcement that is only speculation.
  • Another surprise reveal this evening is that NBC’s contract with the NHL will officially come to an end following the Stanley Cup Final. The network was expected to host the NHL Entry Draft, if not also the NHL Expansion Draft, later this month. However, ESPN has now been announced as the host of both. TSN’s Bob McKenzie, an NBC contributor, notes that this has less to do with the new television rights agreement and more to do with unfortunate timing. McKenzie believes that NBC informed the NHL well before the new TV deal that they would be unable to host the Entry Draft due to conflicts with the Summer Olympics. As a result, ESPN will begin its NHL coverage with two major events in the span of just three days – the Expansion Draft on Wednesday, July 21 and the first round of the Entry Draft on Friday, July 23. Although, McKenzie believes they will use the Sportsnet feed for the latter, if not both. With Mark Messier and most recently Chris Chelios joining ESPN, the network will have more than enough talent to start producing their own material sooner rather than later.

Montreal’s Joel Armia Cleared From COVID Protocol

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June 28: Armia was not present at morning skate, but is on a private jet to Tampa according to interim head coach Luke Richardson. Armia has been cleared from the COVID protocol and is a game-time decision. Evans was a full participant and is no longer wearing a non-contact sweater, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet.

June 27: On the eve of the Stanley Cup Final, the Montreal Canadiens have issued some bad news. Forward Joel Armia was absent at practice on Sunday morning and without any previous indication of injury, the speculation began. GM Marc Bergevin confirmed the prevailing theory to the media afterward: Armia is in COVID Protocol.

Bergevin did not reveal any additional details, but an update is expected on Monday. In the meantime, Armia did not travel to Tampa with the team for the first two games of the series. Whether it would be an option for him to travel separately if cleared from the protocol remains to be seen. This is now the second time that Armia has landed on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list, following a previous stint in March. At that time, he tested positive and the Canadiens had a number of games postponed. So far, there has been no indication that Armia’s current situation will impact the Stanley Cup Final schedule.

Of course, the current concern with interim head coach Dominique Ducharme testing positive last week and sidelined for 14 days, is that Armia’s status could be more than just a case of a false positive or close contact. If Armia is positive for COVID, it would mean the end of his season with just seven games left in the NHL year. Armia, who only recorded 14 points in the regular season, has taken his game to the next level in the playoffs. He has eight points in 17 games and is tied for the team lead in goals. The presence he brings to both the third line and penalty kill will be sorely missed if he cannot play at all in the series. The Canadiens hope that tomorrow’s update will bring different news.

The thin silver lining of the report today is that Jake Evans appears primed to step into Armia’s spot in the starting lineup for the time being. Evans has not played since being injured in Game One of the North Division title series with the Winnipeg Jets, but appears to have made a full recovery from the massive check that knocked him out. Despite the scoring presence lost by Armia, the Habs seems more interested in replacing his two-way ability with Evans than adding an offensive asset like Tomas Tatar. 

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

Snapshots: Kane, Glass, Lee

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While the trade bait board released by Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli earlier this week contained mostly the usual suspects, a surprise at No. 5 was San Jose Sharks top scorer Evander Kane. While a departure was a possibility this season – the Sharks did tell a U.S. bankruptcy court that Kane’s contract could be terminated – this is the first that trade rumors have popped up. It does not seem as though Kane’s ongoing financial issues and legal proceedings are the root cause either. Instead, Seravalli suggests that a number of Kane’s teammates are unhappy with him in the locker room and have voiced their frustration to San Jose management. This would not be the first time that Kane’s personality has pushed him out of town; he previously had issues in both prior career stops with the Thrashers/Jets and Sabres. Whether the Sharks follow suit and trade Kane is another matter. A top scorer and physical presence, Kane is one of the best players on the team. Even if GM Doug Wilson was inclined to trade Kane, his bankruptcy case and the new leaked details of another upset locker room would make it very difficult for him to get fair value back for what Kane actually contributes on the ice. It’s a difficult situation and one that was not expected to be an issue for the Sharks this summer. It is one thing for Kane’s legal status to force their hand and another to have to instead make the proactive choice to trade an elite player.

  • Another player who may unexpectedly be available this summer is young Vegas Golden Knights forward Cody Glass. As relayed by The Athletic’s Jesse Granger, Vegas head coach Peter DeBoer made some comments in his closing media availability on Saturday that were not-so-subtly directed at Glass. A young guy can’t say he never got an opportunity,” DeBoer said. “I think we stuck young guys in all year and tried to put them in situations where they had an opportunity to succeed… Some have seized the moment, some haven’t. Some just aren’t ready yet.” As the Knight’s most high-profile prospect, Glass is certainly one of if not the biggest target of these remarks. Vegas’ first ever draft pick at No. 6 overall back in 2017, Glass has been given ample opportunity so far in his career. He skated in 39 games with the Golden Knights as a first-year pro in 2019-20, recording 12 points, and was expected to take a step forward this year. Instead, he played in only 27 games and recorded 10 points, failing to make an impact at even strength. His lack of reliability kept him out of all but one of Vegas’ playoff games this spring. A prospect with Glass’ draft pedigree is expected to be doing more at this point in his career, especially as the team’s other 2017 first-rounder, Nick Suzuki, is currently first or second in goals, assists, points, and time on ice this postseason among Montreal Canadiens forwards – the team that just knocked out the Knights. With just one year left of waiver exemption, Glass must show this season that he can be an everyday NHL contributor. If DeBoer and the club have doubts, they may decide to trade him now before his stock slips any further.
  • Some good news in exit interviews came from the New York Islanders. Captain Anders Lee, whose season was ended by an ACL injury in March, sounded optimistic about his recovery. “I am on track,” Lee stated. “I was able to do a lot of really good things in the past 13-14 weeks since surgery. Looking forward to continuing on that path and getting ready for camp.” ACL injuries can be a difficult and timely recovery, so Lee’s early progress is encouraging. If he is indeed back to full strength in time for training camp, that is an ideal result for the Islanders. Before his injury, Lee was scoring at a pace that closely resembled his career highs in per-game goals and points and was well on his way to a career-best plus/minus, even in the shortened season. New York needs him at that level next year, as their lack of salary cap space will likely prevent them from making any meaningful improvements to the roster this summer.

Montreal Canadiens Extend Forward Brandon Baddock

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Their surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final is not stopping the Montreal Canadiens from continuing to look toward the future. Even with the series set to begin tomorrow, the front office is hard at work today. Montreal has come to terms on a new contract for forward Brandon Baddock, the team announced. The 26-year-old forward had been slated for Group 6 unrestricted free agency again this off-season, which is how the Canadiens were able to sign him last year in the first place, but will instead stay put with this extension.

While Baddock did not actually suit up for Montreal this season and has yet to play in the NHL at all in his five-year pro career, his new deal does represent a raise. This is partially due to the increase in the league’s minimum salary, as Baddock will go from $700K this year to $750K in 2021-22. However, the Habs also increased his AHL salary from $110K to $150K and guaranteed him $175K even if he again is held out of NHL action.

Why the promotion for a 26-year-old with no NHL experience and little AHL production? Despite his seemingly unimpressive resume, Baddock was actually a name that drew a fair amount of interest as a free agent last off-season after walking away from the New Jersey Devils – and none of it has to do with his offensive ability. The 6’3″, 221-lb. forward plays a heavy checking game, is a fearless defensive player, and isn’t afraid to drop the gloves. Baddock led the AHL in penalty minutes in 2018-19, finished fifth in 2019-20, and has at least 100 PIM in each of his three full AHL seasons. While the NHL has largely moved away from these enforcer types, Baddock spent time on Montreal’s taxi squad this season and they were ready to let him loose on the league. Other teams had the same idea in mind last off-season as well. Baddock will never be more than a fourth liner in the NHL at best, but there is value in having a menacing physical presence on call to plug into the lineup. If Montreal wins the Stanley Cup, they will be public enemy No. 1 next season and now will come prepared if the opposition want to try to push them around.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but a few teams.  It’s now time to examine what those clubs need to accomplish over the coming months.  It’s going to be a busy summer. What is on deck for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

The Pittsburgh Penguins finished first in what was arguably the best division in the NHL this season. The East boasted the likes of the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and even the New York Rangers, the best team not to make the playoffs. Yet, Pittsburgh finished with 77 points for the fifth-best record in the league despite stiff competition. It seemed like Sidney Crosby and company were primed for another deep playoff run this season. Instead, it all came crashing down quickly in a first-round loss to the Islanders in which Pittsburgh could not counter New York’s smothering approach. The Penguins’ weaknesses were exposed in the postseason and must be addressed in the offseason, but the team currently lacks the flexibility to do much of anything.

Shed Salary

The Penguins cannot start adding until they do some subtracting. Pittsburgh is currently pegged to have just $3.2MM in salary cap space heading into the off-season, a projection that includes just 19 contracts. Forget improving the roster, Pittsburgh needs to create cap space just to preserve their current roster, as key restricted free agents Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese require new contract and the team will likely try to re-sign impending UFA defenseman Cody Ceci as well. Those three alone will cost well more than $3.2MM.

The Penguins could actually receive some help from the Expansion Draft – if they are lucky. Pittsburgh is likely to expose both forward Jason Zucker and defenseman Marcus Pettersson in expansion; the pair are talented players, but underperformed in 2020-21, especially relative to their substantial contracts. Either player would be a loss for the team, but the added cap space would more than make up for the departure.

If the Seattle Kraken instead grab Aston-Reese, Blueger, or Jeff Carter, the Penguins will be in trouble. Even if the pick is Zucker or Pettersson, new GM Ron Hextall will still likely work the phones in an effort to move some salary. Again, Zucker and Pettersson are both good players and the Penguins will not just give them away, but they could be had for a bargain price this summer as Pittsburgh is desperate to shed salary.

Add a Goaltender

What will the Penguins do if they can open up cap space? Hextall, a former goalie himself, has already hinted that adding a veteran netminder is a priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. It is difficult to look at the team’s postseason collapse and not attribute much of the blame to starter Tristan Jarry. The young keeper followed up a stellar 2019-20 season with a decent regular season this year, but he struggled greatly in the postseason and kept the Penguins out of several games. Backup Casey DeSmith actually outplayed Jarry this season, albeit in lesser games, but he himself is also streaky. More importantly, DeSmith is injury-prone and is not a reliable understudy to Jarry. The Penguins need a reliable veteran presence to push their young starter.

Of course, the popular prediction is going to be old friend Marc-Andre Fleury. The Vegas Golden Knights are also looking to shed salary and who better than Fleury, coming off an incredible season, to return to Pittsburgh to stabilize the net before he rides off into the sunset, retiring as Penguin. It all sounds great, but Pittsburgh taking on Fleury’s $7MM salary is an impossibility and Vegas retaining considerable salary, if any, is unlikely. A return for Fleury is probably not going to happen, but the shared history means it can’t be ruled out compeltely.

More reasonable targets include free agents  Frederik Andersen, Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Even a young UFA like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could see Pittsburgh as a good opportunity to win a starting role and prove they can be a top option. If the Penguins are lucky, the market may actually drive down the salary requirements if there are a number of goalies interested in a great situation to win games and have an open competition in net. While free agency seems like the more viable route, trade options will be numerous and the Expansion Draft could shake up the market. Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal trade candidate.

Improve the Bottom Six

Another area where Hextall and company have been open about their desire to improve is in their forward corps. The Penguins have no problem scoring, but their two-way play up front was a major concern this season. For Pittsburgh to take a step forward and return to postseason success, they must become harder to play against. That starts with getting better defensive play and physical engagement from their forwards. Hextall has harped on the Penguins needing to be more physical and has talked about adding size and grit this off-season, but it’s more than that. Pittsburgh was poor on the penalty kill this season, did not block shorts (particularly at forward) and their issues at the face-off dot continued through the regular season and into the playoffs. In nearly all facets of defensive play, the Penguins must improve.

With that said, retaining the likes of Blueger and Aston-Reese through expansion, getting a full season of Carter, and getting a healthy season from Brandon Tanev is already a great start to improved bottom-six play. The roster does not need a complete overhaul to improve team defense. That doesn’t mean that they can’t add another impact player though. Mark Jankowski, Evan Rodrigues, and Colton Sceviour were not the answer this season and all three are on their way out of town. The Penguins need to use what little cap space they may have left after re-signing their key free agents and adding a goalie to add another veteran difference-maker to round out the bottom-six.

Decide the Future of Malkin and Letang

What is to become of the Penguins’ long-time core? Crosby is still as good as ever and still signed for several years, but Malkin and Letang are entering the final years of their current contracts. Malkin is coming off a down year by his standards and will spend all summer rehabbing from an injury. Letang continues to show signs of slow but steady decline and is not playing up to his $7.25MM price tag. Yet, both players are still major contributors to the team and franchise icons. The new administration has vowed to stick with them, but for how long? Do they enter the season on expiring contracts and deal with the repercussions? Do they sign them to extensions this summer despite the concerns? Do they trade one? Both? There are major questions that need answering about the veteran stars. The front office does not want to hurt themselves in the short-term by moving on too soon from either one, but they also don’t want to hamstring themselves long-term by throwing out new contracts that aren’t necessarily warranted. It’s a difficult decision and one that will weigh on the team this summer.

 

 

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