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Vezina Finalists Announced; Is The Evaluation Process Flawed?

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The NHL has announced the three finalists for the Vezina Award, given each year to the league’s best goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. Vying for the trophy at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas this June will be the Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck, the Nashville Predators’ Pekka Rinne, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is the first nomination for Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, while Rinne has previously been up for the award three times.

At first glance, the three nominees are not surprising. All three have had great seasons and are clearly among the top goaltenders in the league. However, hockey analytics guru Rob Vollman makes a pretty good case for why the evaluation process my be flawed. As Vollman points out, the only category in which the trio were tops in the league is wins, a statistic based entirely off of team performance, not individual performance. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy led the league with 44 wins, while Rinne was right behind with 42.  Yet, only Rinne was top three in the league among goalies with 41+ starts in save percentage, quality starts percentage, and goals saved above average, Vollman’s stats of choice. By those standards of evaluation, Vasilevskiy should have been nowhere near Vezina contention. Instead, Vollman’s poster boy for proper evaluation is the Anaheim Ducks’ John Gibson, who was a top-four finisher in each of those three categories and a top-ten finisher in wins. Also garnering some more attentions should have been the Vegas Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury and the Arizona Coyotes’ Antti Raanta, both of whom were excellent statistically, but lacked the number of starts and wins that are apparently requisite for Vezina contention in today’s NHL.

It’s no surprise that the three contenders for best goaltender are who they are. However, that doesn’t mean it’s correct, especially in a season so many other obvious choices. General managers surely do not evaluate goalies based on wins alone when evaluating them for acquisition, so why does a clearly-flawed statistic hold so much weight in the Vezina race? It’s a question worth asking and Vollman’s reaction, as well as others’, may change the voting results come next season. In the meantime, look for Rinne to finally take home the hardware this year in his fourth try, a result that was likely even with proper evaluation.

Anaheim Ducks Recall Reto Berra, Jacob Larsson

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The Anaheim Ducks, fresh off a crushing 8-1 defeat at the hands of the San Jose Sharks, have recalled goaltender Reto Berra and defenseman Jacob Larsson. The San Diego Gulls missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker—ironically to the San Jose Barracuda—meaning several players will likely come up to skate with the team as “Black Aces.”

It’s unlikely that Berra especially will get into a game unless John Gibson and Ryan Miller are injured, but for Jacob Larsson one has to wonder if it’s a different story. The 20-year old defenseman might be able to help the Ducks right away, as their current group has been ravaged by injury and inconsistency. Andy Welinski and Marcus Pettersson were used for only 13 and 15 minutes respectively last night, and Cam Fowler is still trying to work his way back from injury.

Larsson is expected to play a big role on the Anaheim blue line in the future, and the first-round pick performed well this season for the Gulls. In 50 games he had just 16 points, but is a capable two-way player that can skate with the opponent’s best.

Western Notes: Coyotes Free Agency, Perron, Jarnkrok, Fowler

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With the team comfortable at both goaltending and defense, the Arizona Coyotes are expected to be add to their forward lines this offseason. Don’t be surprised if Arizona looks into the free agent market this summer and attempts to grab itself a top-six forward, according to AZCentral’s Richard Morin.

A team with ample cap space, Arizona has spent the last few years building through the draft and then this past season made multiple trades to upgrade its roster, acquiring the likes of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Richard Panik. The scribe writes the franchise, especially after an impressive second-half run, might look to dip its feet into the free agency market. While acquiring center John Tavares is not a likely scenario, the team might be able to snag an elite winger such as James van Riemsdyk, Patrick Maroon or Rick Nash. The team will have a couple of their own free agents they must sign, including veteran Brad Richardson, Zac Rinaldo, Kevin Connauton and Luke Schenn (as well as try to extend defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson), but the team should have the assets to upgrade their offense.

Morin does also admit that general manager John Chayka might also go back to the trade route as well, but at the same time, the team believes they will see an uptick in production from rookie Clayton Keller and now believe that prospect Dylan Strome is ready to handle full-time duties in the NHL.

Minor Transactions: 4/14/18

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With the postseason in full swing, playoff action continues with four games today and another four tomorrow. Many teams will be tinkering with their roster, especially as injuries are incurred: 

  • The Colorado Avalanche have assigned goaltender Spencer Martin to the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL today, according to CapFriendly. The 22-year-old can now play in the minor league team’s final game of the regular season. Martin had been up with the Avalanche as the team’s third goaltender, but they wanted to get him a little extra playing time.
  • CapFriendly reported that the San Jose Sharks have assigned third-string goaltender Antoine Bibeau to the San Jose Barracuda Saturday. Bibeau was sent down as the Barracuda are in a must-win situation to qualify for the last spot in the AHL playoffs. In 42 starts with the Barracuda, Bibeau has a 2.40 GAA and a .918 save percentage.
  • CapFriendly also relayed yesterday that Korbinian Holzer had cleared waivers. Yet, the expected move has not been made by the Anaheim Ducks, as they appear content to keep him on the roster for the time being.

Western Notes: Bennett, Murphy, Girard, Perron, Bieksa, Fowler

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The Calgary Flames have a lot of questions this offseason after a disappointing season that leaves them wondering what happened. However, the biggest question probably falls on what to do with Sam Bennett. The former fourth-overall pick in 2014 should be improving every season, but that hasn’t been the case for the 21-year-old who has seen his numbers drop every year.

After putting up 18 goals and 18 assists in a promising rookie season, he has put up only 26 points in each of the last two seasons and his goals have dropped from 13 in 2016-17 to 11 this year. The Calgary Sun’s Wes Gilbertson writes the team must decide whether he can take his game up several notches or whether to use him as trade bait. Of course, you don’t want to be the general manager that trades him away only to thrive with another team, but the team needs production out of the forward and is running out of time to figure out if he is the star they thought they drafted. He has one year left after this one at $1.95MM before hitting restricted free agency again.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks think they have found something in defenseman Connor Murphy. The 25-year-old, who was acquired in the Niklas Hjalmarsson trade last season from Arizona, struggled early on in the season with Chicago, according to Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Potash, but was one of the team’s better defensemen in the second half and the team believes he can develop into a top-four defenseman. “If you look at the way he played over the last 30 to 40 games, I think there’s reason for excitement,” said Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman.
  • The Colorado Avalanche is without defenseman Samuel Girard today as the young defenseman is out with an upper-body injury sustained in a hit from Nashville’s Filip Forsberg during Thursday’s game. The rookie defenseman is day-to-day.
  • Vegas Golden Knights winger David Perron, who has been out since Mar. 26 with an undisclosed injury, says he hopes to play before the series with the Los Angeles Kings is over, but did not give a timetable on a potential return, according to SinBinVegas.
  • The Anaheim Ducks expect defenseman Kevin Bieksa to play in Game 2 tonight against the San Jose Sharks, according to Orange Country Register’s Eric Stephens. Bieksa has been out since Mar. 12 after having hand surgery. Stephens also notes that defenseman Cam Fowler is no longer wearing a sling on his shoulder and will resume skating shortly. The blueliner has missed 13 straight games, but no timetable is set for his return.

Pacific Notes: Thornton, Edmonton Defense, Nugent-Hopkins

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After a double-overtime thriller in which the Vegas Golden Knights took a 2-0 lead in their first-round series with the Los Angeles Kings, the San Jose Sharks will attempt to take a 2-0 lead of their own tonight against the Anaheim Ducks. The Sharks, who picked up a 3-0 victory Thursday on the road, got a surprise during pre-game warmups when injured veteran center Joe Thornton participated in the pre-game skate before Thursday’s game. According to Paul Gackle of the Mercury News, Thornton is close to returning to the team, but isn’t yet ready.

Thornton, who went down in January with a torn MCL injury, has been rehabbing for the past 11 weeks, but has said that unlike last year when he returned from a knee injury after just two weeks for the playoff run, he intends to make sure he isn’t a distraction to the team before returning. However, the more wins that the Sharks can pick up in the meantime can buy time until Thornton believes he is fully healthy and ready to return to the lineup.

  • Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal writes that the Edmonton Oilers are desperate to repair their defense and wants to trade for a top-line defenseman. While he suggests the team could offer up its lottery pick in a deal to get Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson or work out some type of deal to get Colorado’s Tyson Barrie, neither is realistic. The team’s best chance at solving their defensive issues is right-handed shot Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes. The 26-year-old is falling down the Hurricanes’ depth charts with the emergence of younger defensemen like Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. Faulk would also fix their logjam of left-handed defenseman as several defenseman such as Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell are left-handed, but playing on the right side. The problem is that Carolina wants a forward back. So who are they going to send?
  • Matheson, in the same article, adds that the Oilers have no intention of trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who might be their best trade chip. The center was rumored to be a trade candidate with his high salary ($6MM AAV) over the next three years. However, the team believes he might be the perfect linemate for Connor McDavid as a wing, which would move youngster Ryan Strome to the third-line center position. Nugent-Hopkins is coming off a season where he tied his career-high in goals with 24 (and he missed 20 games this season).

Korbinian Holzer Placed On Waivers

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According to CapFriendly, the Anaheim Ducks have placed defenseman Korbinian Holzer on waivers, a move that will likely be followed by an assignment to the AHL’s San Diego Gulls. Holzer is actually eligible for the AHL playoffs since he was in the minor leagues at the time of the NHL trade deadline.

Holzer was signed to a two-year extension last summer, but played just 16 games for the Ducks this season. Used to being the extra player stuck in the press box at this point, Holzer has just 135 NHL games under his belt despite making his debut back in 2010-11.

The Gulls are trying to secure the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, and with two games left this weekend Holzer could be quite the addition. Though he’s never been much of an offensive player, he does come with plenty of experience and can play at a high level in the minor leagues. Since he wasn’t likely getting any playing time for the Ducks this postseason, this might be the best thing for the organization.

It’s unlikely that he would be claimed at this point in the year, especially since he had already cleared earlier.

Goalie Notes: Sparks, Tokarski, Berra

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After an absolutely outstanding season, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Garret Sparks has been named Goaltender of the Year in the AHL. Sparks appeared in 42 games for the Toronto Marlies and went 30-9-1 with a .936 save percentage. This huge year for Sparks—along with a similarly impressive season for teammate Calvin Pickard—creates an interesting problem for the Maple Leafs going forward.

Frederik Andersen is entrenched as the starter, while Curtis McElhinney actually led the NHL in save percentage this season in his limited backup role. Pickard is scheduled to be a restricted free agent while Sparks has one year left on his contract. Both likely deserve another opportunity at the highest level, but it will be tough to displace McElhinney after the season he had.

  • The Philadelphia Flyers have recalled Dustin Tokarski as a third goaltender for the playoffs, leaving Alex Lyon in the AHL to start for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Tokarski is no stranger to NHL postseason play however, as he started five games for the Montreal Canadiens back in 2014. If the Flyers suffer injuries to their primary goaltenders, it’s nice to have someone with playoff experience as an insurance policy.
  • The Anaheim Ducks on the other hand have sent Reto Berra back to the minor leagues, signalling that John Gibson is indeed ready to return and start Game 1. Gibson’s status was unclear until the last few days, but he’ll try to show he deserves some attention as one of the league’s best when he takes on the San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.

Poll: Who Will Be Western Conference Champions?

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The NHL Playoffs kick off tomorrow night with three first round matchups. The Minnesota Wild head to Winnipeg to take on the Jets, the Pittburgh Penguins welcome in their rival Philadelphia Flyers, and the Vegas Golden Knights host the first playoff game in franchise history when they take on the Los Angeles Kings. All three should be exceptional games, featuring superstars and underrated talents.

By Thursday evening, all eight series will have started and the first round will truly be underway.

So who do you think comes out of it all? This year more than ever the conferences seem wide open, with several teams built to be real contenders for the Stanley Cup. Even with weaker records, some of the lower seeds have the ability to catch fire for a few weeks, while injuries can always upset the favorites. Vote below on who you think will win the Western Conference, and explain why in the comment section. Will the Predators head back to the Finals for the second year in a row? Is it another long playoff run for Joe Thornton (when he returns) and the Sharks? Can the Anze Kopitar and the Kings score enough to shock the world again?

Who will be Western Conference Champions?
Nashville Predators 35.89% (375 votes)
Winnipeg Jets 18.09% (189 votes)
Vegas Golden Knights 11.39% (119 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 10.81% (113 votes)
San Jose Sharks 7.18% (75 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 6.89% (72 votes)
Minnesota Wild 6.32% (66 votes)
Colorado Avalanche 3.44% (36 votes)
Total Votes: 1,045

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Minor Transactions: 4/8/18

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With the Eastern Conference still undecided until today’s final regular season game, the Western Conference has no questions as the Colorado Avalanche finished off the St. Louis Blues in a 5-2 victory Saturday as they clinched the final playoff spot. The Nashville Predators got the top spot and will face the Avalanche. In other first-round matchups, the Vegas Golden Knights will face the Los Angeles Kings, the Anaheim Ducks will face the San Jose Sharks and the Minnesota Wild will face the Winnipeg Jets. 

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