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Archives for September 2021

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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In less than two weeks, the NHL preseason will begin. October 25 is the date that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will kick things off, meaning the regular season is just around the corner. The condensed offseason was certainly a spectacular one, with names like Seth Jones, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Duncan Keith all traded. Through expansion and free agency there was tons of player movement and rosters will look quite different than how they did when the 2020-21 season began.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first half, Brian examined the Jack Eichel situation, clarified some rules around offer sheets, and gave his thoughts on the 2021 free agent period. In the second, he addressed questions around the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist’s legacy, and what Montreal should expect from Cole Caufield this season.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Reid Duke Signs AHL Contract

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The first player in Vegas Golden Knights history is staying with the organization, though it’s no longer under an NHL contract. Reid Duke has signed an AHL contract with the Henderson Silver Knights for the 2021-22 season.

The 25-year-old forward reached Group VI unrestricted free agency this summer after failing to play in any NHL games to this point in his career. Signed to an entry-level contract on March 6, 2017, just a few days after the Golden Knights gained official standing, he will always be the answer to an interesting piece of trivia. Unfortunately, that entry-level deal and the one-year contract that followed never really resulted in much, as Duke registered just 39 points in 114 AHL games.

Originally a sixth-round pick of Minnesota Wild, Duke never signed with that organization and instead ended up inking a deal with his former junior coach/GM Kelly McCrimmon, now GM of the Golden Knights. That WHL connection will continue, as new GM of the Silver Knights Tim Speltz should know Duke very well from his time with the Spokane Chiefs.

St. Louis Blues Sign James Neal, Michael Frolik To PTOs

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The St. Louis Blues have brought in a ton of veteran experience in one day, signing James Neal and Michael Frolik to professional tryouts. Both players will join the Blues for training camp as they look for NHL contracts.

Neal, 34, was once one of the most consistent goal scorers in the league, posting seasons of at least 21 goals for the first ten years of his career. Things changed in 2018-19 when he signed a five-year, $28.75MM contract with the Calgary Flames, as suddenly his goal scoring dried up and he was pushed further and further down the lineup.

After two up and down years with the Edmonton Oilers, Neal’s contract was bought out in July. He will still earn nearly $2MM from the Oilers in each of the next four years, meaning whatever he was to make on another NHL contract would just be a bonus. Though his overall play has obviously declined, Neal did actually score 24 goals in 84 games for the Oilers over those two seasons, 13 of them coming on the powerplay. If there’s any of that juice left, perhaps the Blues could use him as a sort of specialist to replace some of the scoring that left in the offseason, or that which could still be moved out.

Frolik, 33, is a bit of a different story. He was never a pure goal scorer, far from it in fact as he hasn’t recorded a 20-goal season since his sophomore year in 2009-10. Instead, he grew into a defensively capable support player who could be relied on for somewhere around 40 points a year. That offense disappeared over the last few years though and Frolik was limited almost entirely to the taxi squad for the Montreal Canadiens in 2020-21. In eight games, he failed to record a single point.

It’s hard to believe he’ll ever be an impact player again, but you could certainly do worse than Frolik if you’re looking for depth to keep on hand in case of injury. Having a player like him in camp prepares for that situation, given the Blues don’t have a huge number of young players pushing (or ready) for playing time.

As with any tryout agreement, it’s also important to remember that this does not mean the Blues have exclusive rights to these players. Any NHL team can still sign them if they wish, meaning this is a showcase to the whole league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 09/17/21

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Hockey is coming. The NHL season is coming quickly, with real preseason action just around the corner. As we keep an eye on those RFA contract negotiations, there is still more happening in the minor and European leagues. As always, this is where you’ll find information on all the notable minor moves of the day.

  • The Grand Rapids Griffins have signed Dennis Yan to a one-year contract after he spent last season with the Black Wings 1992 of the ICEHL. Yan, 24, was a third-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning when Steve Yzerman was running that organization, and a valuable contributor at the AHL level. In 13 games overseas last season he scored just five points, but will get a chance to resume his professional career in North America this year.
  • CapFriendly reports that Ryan Lohin has signed a professional tryout with the Seattle Kraken after failing to receive a qualifying offer from the Lightning this summer. Lohin, a seventh-round pick in 2016, split last season between the AHL and ECHL, scoring seven goals and 15 points in 25 games with the Syracuse Crunch.
  • Stuart Percy, a first-round pick in 2015, has signed with Motor Ceske Budejovice in the Czech Republic for the season that has already started. Now 28, Percy actually played 12 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but never did live up to his billing as a future top-four NHL defenseman. He spent last season in Finland, where he recorded 17 points in 50 games with Vaasan Sport.
  • The Laval Rocket have agreed to terms with Kevin Roy on an AHL contract for the upcoming season, bringing him over from the Tucson Roadrunners where he scored 11 goals and 30 points in 35 games. The 28-year-old winger hasn’t seen the NHL since the 2018-19 season but does have a pretty lengthy history in the minor leagues now, suiting up for the San Diego Gulls, Springfield Thunderbirds, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Roadrunners and soon the Rocket.

This page will be further updated as transactions are reported

Frederik Gauthier Signs PTO With New Jersey Devils

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The New Jersey Devils have added another experienced NHL forward to the mix for training camp, signing Frederik Gauthier to a professional tryout. Gauthier joins Mark Jankowski, Jimmy Vesey and Tyler Wotherspoon who will also be in Devils camp on PTOs.

Now 26, Gauthier never did develop into the shutdown center that the Toronto Maple Leafs were hoping for when they selected him 21st overall in 2013. Standing 6’5″ and 239-lbs, the former Rimouski Oceanic star should be a physical presence on the ice that can lean on attacking players and punish defenders. Unfortunately, he has never seemed interested in playing the bruising style and using his frame to its full advantage.

In 170 career NHL games, Gauthier has just 204 hits and 31 points. All but two of those games came with Toronto, before playing for the Arizona Coyotes last season. Averaging just nine minutes a night to this point, securing a full-time NHL job is likely out of the question for the big center.

Still, he could certainly provide some depth for the Devils down the middle if he earns a two-way contract. The team isn’t really loaded with options for the bottom-six, which is likely exactly why these players keep agreeing to tryouts with the team as they look to secure NHL contracts.

Zack Smith Announces Retirement

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It’s been more than 18 months since Zack Smith last laced up his skates for an NHL game, and it turns out that match against the Vancouver Canucks on February 12, 2020 will be his last. The veteran forward announced his retirement today, speaking with Ian Mendes of The Athletic.

Smith, who played parts of 11 seasons with the Ottawa Senators before spending the 2019-20 season with the Chicago Blackhawks, admitted that though he obviously loves the game, his “heart wasn’t into it the last couple of years.” He points to the moment in 2018 when he was placed on waivers by the Senators as one when he learned the “business side” of the game.

In 2020-21, Smith was still under contract with the Blackhawks but did not play after having back surgery the season prior. He is still dealing with pain and is now focused on his post-hockey health and life.

It was quite a career for the third-round pick, racking up 204 points in 662 regular season games. His most impressive season came in 2015-16 when he scored 25 goals and even received votes for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive forwards. Though he did not ever lift the Stanley Cup, he did suit up 45 times in the postseason.

Montreal To Host 2022 NHL Draft

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The 2022 NHL Draft will be held in Montreal at the Bell Centre, home of the Montreal Canadiens. The event will be held over two days, starting on July 7. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman released a statement:

We are proud to announce that, once again, we are conducting our Draft in front of the great fans of the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal, the site of the first NHL Draft in 1963, is a wonderful place to bring the NHL family together and to focus on the future of our game as our Clubs call the names of top prospects from around the world. We also thank Geoff Molson and the entire Canadiens organization for their cooperation and support while we needed to conduct the Draft remotely the past two years.

The Canadiens had been set to host the 2020 draft before the COVID-19 pandemic forced it to be held virtually. The expectation since has always been that the league would return to Montreal as soon as it could, and now that is official.

The most interesting part about this announcement is that NHL free agency will not open on July 1, as it did prior to the COVID-shifted calendars. Agent Allan Walsh of Octagon Hockey tweets that the frenzy will be pushed back to mid-July, meaning once again it will be a condensed offseason. This is likely in part due to the extended season, as this year’s schedule is made up of 200 days thanks to an Olympic break in February.

It also means as PuckPedia points out, that the majority of players with signing bonuses will have them paid before the draft and free agency. That could drastically affect teams’ plans and player movement heading into the draft, as huge chunks of salary will have already been paid out.

RFA Profile: Elias Pettersson

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Elias Pettersson burst onto the scene in 2018-19, immediately becoming a top-line player on the Canucks.  He has been a fixture in that role since then, putting him in line for a substantial raise once he signs his second contract which should be at some point over the next few weeks with training camps fast approaching.

Drafted as a center, the 22-year-old has split time between playing down the middle and on the wing which expands the pool of comparable players to work from.  Either way, Pettersson is going to be staying on the top trio.

There are a couple of elements that are going to be at play in these talks.  One is that he missed the last 30 games with a wrist injury and while no one is saying he had something to prove there, he’s basically working off of two years worth of NHL games played whereas many of his comparables had three full years under their belt.  It’s not going to drastically affect his value but it’s going to be something to keep in mind.

The other is Vancouver’s cap situation.  By the time they whittle their roster down and place Micheal Ferland on LTIR, they’re going to have around $15MM to spend.  That’s plenty for Pettersson but there’s also Quinn Hughes that needs to be signed.  They can’t both get long-term deals; at least one of them is getting a bridge.  How talks go with one will play a big role in negotiations for the other.  (Both happen to be represented by CAA’s Pat Brisson as well.)

Statistics

2020-21: 26 GP, 10-11-21, even, 66 PIMS, 63 shots, 18:34 ATOI
Career: 165 GP, 65-88-153 (0.93 points per game), +19, 36 PIMS, 369 shots, 18:24 ATOI

Comparables

Brayden Point (Tampa Bay, 2019) – Let’s look at a couple of bridge options first.  Point was basically stuck signing one due to Tampa’s cap situation, a situation that Pettersson could be in as well depending on what happens with Hughes.  Point’s trajectory is different than Pettersson’s in that he started slower but had a dominant platform year which wasn’t an option for Pettersson but the per-game average numbers are somewhat close overall.

Platform Year Stats: 79 GP, 41-51-92, +27, 28 PIMS, 191 shots, 18:55 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 229 GP, 91-107-198 (0.86 points per game), +49, 66 PIMS, 530 shots, 18:38 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $20.25MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mathew Barzal (NY Islanders, 2021) – Barzal wasn’t able to repeat his rookie-season performance over his second and third years but still notched at least 60 points each time, a level of production Pettersson hit in his first two years, albeit with fewer games played.  Like Point, this deal was basically forced by New York’s cap situation and as it was signed earlier this year, it also stands as the most recent comparable out there.

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 19-41-60, +5, 44 PIMS, 171 shots, 20:03 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 234 GP, 59-148-207 (0.88 points per game), -1, 126 PIMS, 520 shots, 18:25 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $21MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.59%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Those are basically the only two comparable players in the price range that it’s going to cost on a short-term contract so let’s look at a few longer-term deals.  The cost gets a lot higher with some UFA years being bought out as a result.

Jack Eichel (Buffalo, 2017) – Yes, this is a big contract but the offensive output between the two at the end of their entry-level deals is pretty close.  Eichel had the strength of a higher draft seed (second) and the fact he was basically Buffalo’s franchise player from the moment he was drafted.  Those gave him a bit of a boost that Pettersson might not be able to get but the numbers – which matter the most in contract talks – arguably have Pettersson in this range.  This contract was also viewed as a reach at the time but it’s still usable as a comparable.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177 (0.85 points per game), -54, 76 PIMS, 733 shots, 19:41 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.864MM AAV)

Mikko Rantanen (Colorado, 2019) – The two players had very different trajectories – Rantanen started slow and then became a high-end performer while Pettersson has been more consistent – but again, the totals at the end of their respective entry-level deals are certainly comparable.  It’s fair to question if Pettersson has the offensive ceiling that Rantanen does which is an argument GM Jim Benning would certainly use in talks when this comes up as a possible comparable deal.

Platform Year Stats: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 239 GP, 80-129-209 (0.87 points per game), -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $55.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.35%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mitch Marner (Toronto, 2019) – This one would certainly represent the high end of the scale but it’s important to get one player on here whose point per game average at the end of his entry-level deal is at the same mark as Pettersson’s.  The only ones with a higher average that were recent high picks to sign long-term deals were Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid and Pettersson certainly isn’t in that range although that’s impressive company to be in.  Again, Marner’s offensive trajectory was higher at this point than Pettersson’s is now which is why this basically represents a bar he won’t clear but he could come close.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224 (0.93 points per game), +21, 86 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $65.408MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.38%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Projected Contract

If you were looking at those last few comparables and thinking that Pettersson isn’t in that range, it’d certainly be understandable.  The fact is that he hasn’t played anywhere as many games as those players have thanks to the wrist injury and the last two years being shortened.  But the point per game average is there and Brisson is going to hammer that home in talks and not settle for considerably less than that.  Accordingly, a long-term deal that buys out at least a couple of UFA-eligible seasons could very well have an AAV starting with a nine.

That’s why the short-term contract is the easier play here.  If they’re able to work out a long-term deal with Hughes, they should still be able to afford a two-year or three-year bridge around the high $6MM/low $7MM range without creating any significant cap casualties.  Either way, while they don’t necessarily have to have a deal done with Hughes beforehand, the two basically need to get their deals done pretty much around the same time.  At this point, it may make more sense for Pettersson to get the short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information via CapFriendly.

Teams Will Receive Cap Relief For COVID-Related Suspensions

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One of the changes to the COVID protocols in the NHL for the upcoming season is the ability for teams to suspend players without pay who are “unable to participate in club activities” due to being unvaccinated.  Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly confirmed to Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that Section 50.10(c) of the CBA will apply in this scenario which means that teams who suspend an unvaccinated player under these protocols will receive corresponding cap relief for the day(s) the players are suspended for.

Among the scenarios where unvaccinated players could be suspended are government-imposed quarantine after crossing the border or the requirement of having the vaccine to be allowed to enter an arena which has popped up in a few states with NHL teams in recent weeks.

It has been suggested that the stricter protocols including the potential for suspension without pay have played a role in the high percentage of NHL players who have currently received the vaccine – a number that’s estimated to be at roughly 98%.  With that in mind, the number of regular NHL players who aren’t vaccinated is quite low; Daly suggested to Ryan S. Clark, Mark Lazerus, and Joshua Kloke of The Athletic (subscription link) that they expect that 15 or fewer players fall under this category which means that they would be the only ones subject to this scenario.

It’s worth noting that while it could create an opportunity for teams to bank space during the season, it’d be an unwanted one as it would take a regular player out of the lineup and potentially force a recall from the AHL.  Meanwhile, teams in LTIR would be able to bring a replacement up but wouldn’t be able to bank any cap space unless they were to dip under their respective Accruable Cap Space Limit as a result of the suspension.  We’ll see over the coming months if this scenario winds up coming into play and whether it winds up having any sort of tangible salary cap impact for teams with an unvaccinated player.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $73,106,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($725K, UFA)
D Dennis Cholowski ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($750K, RFA)
D Cale Fleury ($750K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($750K, RFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($825K, RFA)
F Kole Lind ($874K, RFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($850K, UFA)
F Carsen Twarynski ($750K, RFA)

McCann has shown flashes of being an above-average contributor in the past but hasn’t been able to do so consistently.  He’ll get the chance to play a bigger role with Seattle and if it all comes together, he could be in line for a sizable pay bump next year.  Jarnkrok has been on a bargain deal for the last five years and will also get to play a bigger role with a shot at bumping up his numbers before hitting the open market.  Johansson and Sheahan are both coming off quiet years and have seen their value dip lately and will need stronger seasons to land guaranteed deals next summer.  Appleton is coming off a strong season with Winnipeg and is already looking like a candidate to more than double his AAV next summer.  A similar performance this season could triple it.  Donato had to settle for a minimum contract after a tough year in San Jose but should be able to rebuild his value with the Kraken somewhat.  Blackwell had a breakout year with the Rangers and is a candidate for a big jump in salary next summer.  Geekie, Lind, and Twarynski will also be battling for depth roles but if they land a roster spot, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to land a big raise as they’d be in a limited role.

Giordano – who turns 38 next month – is nearing the end of his career but is still a capable top-four blueliner.  He’s going to get an opportunity to play a bigger role than he probably should and he’s a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline to a contender who can cut his ice time.  He’ll be going year to year from here on out and while his next deal will be cheaper than this, he could still command an AAV in the $5MM range.  The Fleury brothers are at different stages of their careers.  Haydn played close to the full season in 2020-21 and should be able to land a small raise a year from now while Cale was in the minors last season and is merely looking to stick on the roster.  A limited role is likely which will yield a cheap deal next summer.  Lauzon did well in Boston last year in his first stint of regular duty and with arbitration rights, he could double his current AAV next summer.  Cholowski’s AAV is a little high for someone who may be on the fringes of making the roster but that may be by design in order to try to help sneak him through waivers next month.

Two Years Remaining

F Nathan Bastian ($825K, RFA)
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi hasn’t had a lot of consistent top-six opportunities but has surpassed the 30-point mark in each of the last four seasons.  His price tag is a little high for his level of production but with a bigger role in Seattle, that could change.  Bastian has basically just been an energy player in the early stages of his career and as long as he can hold down a spot on the roster, they won’t have any issues with his price tag.  Gritty energy players can still land a pretty good payday as long as they can put up some production which is something Bastian will have to work on.

Dunn’s offensive production landed him a big raise this summer and it’s telling that Seattle opted for basically a second bridge contract to get one more opportunity to work out a long-term deal before he becomes UFA-eligible.  He’s going to get the opportunity for a bigger role than he had with the Blues and if he can establish himself as a top-pairing player, that next deal could be quite a pricey one.  Soucy is a serviceable third-pairing defenseman making a bit much for that role but Seattle has ample cap space to afford the small overpayment in the short term.  Borgen is merely looking to establish himself as a regular NHL player so his next contract shouldn’t be much higher than this one unless he winds up in a big role fairly quickly.

Three Years Remaining

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle isn’t the top-line winger that he was in his prime but he’s still a fairly consistent secondary scorer.  He’s going to be asked to do more than that in Seattle which could give him a chance to crack the 20-goal mark again, something he was on pace to do the last two shortened seasons.  If he gets there, it may not be a bargain contract but they’ll get a reasonable return.  Wennberg’s contract showed how difficult it is to land impact centers in free agency.  He did well with Florida last season but was bought out by Columbus the year before after struggling in a top-six role and has only reached double-digit goals twice in his career.  He’s going to have a big role with the Kraken and this is a contract that certainly carries some risk.

Driedger is one of the more impressive success stories in recent years.  After bouncing around the minors, he finally got an opportunity with the Panthers and quickly became one of the better backups in the league.  But with the late start, his track record is minimal – just 41 career NHL appearances and that includes playoff action.  Landing a three-year commitment towards the upper echelon of price tags for a backup goaltender was pretty good, especially when it looked like he might be the starter.  Of course, that changed early in free agency but Driedger should be able to still play enough games to justify the small premium for a backup netminder.

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