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Golden Knights, William Karlsson Agree To Terms On A One-Year Contract

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While Golden Knights center William Karlsson was slated to go to arbitration this morning, the hearing didn’t go ahead. Instead, the team announced that they have agreed to a one-year, $5.25MM contract with their top scorer. The deal includes just $500K in signing bonuses.

Before the hearing, the two sides had filed their salary requests.  Karlsson was seeking $6.5MM while the team came in at $3.5MM so the settlement comes in beyond the $5MM midpoint.

The 25-year-old had a breakout season in 2017-18, one that no one could have reasonably expected.  After putting up 25 points in 81 games in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets reached a deal with Vegas for them to take Karlsson instead of winger Josh Anderson or goalie Joonas Korpisalo in the Expansion Draft.  It’s safe to say that the deal worked out extremely well for the Golden Knights.

While he started out in a bottom-six role, that didn’t last long and Karlsson took off after that.  He wound up scoring a whopping 43 goals which ranked third overall in the league while adding 35 assists while becoming their top line pivot.  He also led the league in plus/minus with a +49 rating.  However, he also led the league with a 23.4 shooting percentage, a number that many view as unsustainable and use that as an argument that he is due to regress in 2018-19.

Although he cooled off a little bit in the Stanley Cup Final, Karlsson also had a productive postseason, notching seven goals and eight assists in 20 games which certainly helped to bolster his case and helped him earn a $4.25MM raise in salary compared to what he made last season.

Karlsson will be eligible for restricted free agency with arbitration rights once again next season.  His $5.25MM salary for next season will also represent his qualifying offer at that time.

With the signing, Vegas has all but one of their players signed for 2018-19 with nearly $8MM in salary cap room to work with; RFA defenseman Shea Theodore is still in need of a new deal.

Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston was the first to report (Twitter link) that the two sides reached a settlement before the hearing.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to note via Twitter the value of the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Shane Prince Signs In Switzerland

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Islanders unrestricted free agent winger Shane Prince has signed a two-year deal with HC Davos in Switzerland, the NLA team announced (link in German).  He was non-tendered by New York back in late June.

After putting up a career-high 18 points in 50 games in 2016-17, the team was hoping that Prince would be able to build off that performance.  However, injury troubles limited him to just 14 games (plus four in the minors on a conditioning assignment) and he didn’t make much of an impact in those contests, collecting just a single goal and an assist.

Over his career, the 25-year-old has played in 128 games between the Senators and Islanders, scoring a dozen goals while picking up 16 assists.  Given that level of production, it’s quite likely that only two-way offers were on the table for Prince so instead, he will try his luck overseas.  He’ll get the opportunity to play a top-six role with Davos and a strong showing over the next couple of years could help him get back on the NHL radar for the summer of 2020.

Toronto Maple Leafs Take Up Unlikely Residence Near Bottom Of Salary List

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s great financial powerhouses. For years they used this financial might to sign or trade for legendary players who were no longer in their prime, willing to spare no expense to try and squeeze the last bit of talent out of the aging superstars. Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Phil Housley, Joe Nieuwendyk, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros, and on and on the list went to no avail. The Maple Leafs have failed for more than 50 years to secure a Stanley Cup, and to do it now would take a different approach.

With the installation of the salary cap, teams like Toronto and the Detroit Red Wings could no longer throw money at players and routinely spend countless dollars more than their competition. They could however remain at the cap ceiling year after year, spending every dollar allowed to try to bring a championship back to the city. This year though, things seem different. When perusing CapFriendly’s front page, one thing sticks out—the Maple Leafs have the third-lowest salary obligations for the 2018-19 season, only sitting ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, two teams who often don’t spend to the cap ceiling.

Now of course the $65.7MM figure that is listed as the projected cap hit of the Maple Leafs doesn’t tell the whole story. The team still needs to sign restricted free agent William Nylander to a new contract before the season begins, and the young forward is looking for a long-term deal. That would take up a substantial chunk—perhaps as much as $6-7MM—of the $13.8MM in cap space the Maple Leafs currently enjoy. That number also includes only six defensemen, which is at least one fewer than the team will carry during the season. The extra body will likely cost them somewhere between $650K and $925K, depending on who they decide to bring up to the NHL.

The team also still has Nathan Horton’s contract on the books though, despite the power forward not expected to ever play again. His $5.3MM cap hit could be placed on long-term injured reserve to give them even more salary flexibility, a tact that the team used last season with Horton and fellow injured forward Joffrey Lupul. The team won’t need to do that though unless they’re in danger of going over the cap ceiling, something they have no way of doing with the current projected roster.

It is then curious why the Maple Leafs haven’t taken advantage of this cap space. The quick explanation would be that they’re looking forward to next season when Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson will all need new contracts that could eat upwards of $20MM in cap space. The team will be shelling out cash to their young forward group and can’t take on any extra salary at the moment. But imagining Toronto leaving somewhere between $6-7MM in cap space available all season seems impossible, given their history of using every penny available to them.

Other than that idea worrying of about the future contracts there are two other potential explanations. One, is that the Maple Leafs believe that their young group will perform well enough to cash in on big performance bonuses once again. Matthews and Marner are both still on their entry-level contracts, and could earn up to $3.7MM in performance bonuses should they hit on all their targets. Even Par Lindholm, who was signed out of the SHL this season as a potential fourth-line center can earn up to $850K in bonuses, while Igor Ozhiganov who was brought over from the KHL to compete for a spot on the blue line could do the same. Any performance bonuses that a team doesn’t have room for under the cap are carried over to the next season, something that the Maple Leafs can’t really afford to have happen.

The other explanation though is much more exciting for Maple Leafs fans, as it means they could go after some of the biggest fish on the trade market at the deadline. As the season goes on, teams bank unused cap space while player cap hits get slowly paid off. That means acquiring a $7MM player at the trade deadline doesn’t take up the same amount of cap space as he would a few months earlier, and means that a team sitting below the cap ceiling all season could theoretically add a ton of salary for the last push towards the playoffs. For instance, if the Maple Leafs played the entire year with their current roster—that’s the one without Nylander or another defenseman—CapFriendly projects they could take on more than $64MM in player cap hits at the deadline.

That kind of cap space is important and can be very useful if used in the right situation. Many teams that spend right up to the ceiling from day one of the season find themselves having to balance out trades by sending out money, something that the Maple Leafs wouldn’t have to do even if they wanted to bring in the top rentals on the market. If the potential 2019 free agent market is anything to go by—which is a premature assumption to say the least—the trade deadline should be flush with talent, no matter which teams are still in the playoff hunt. Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Jordan Eberle, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Mats Zuccarello, Max Pacioretty, and Anders Lee are all players who are both on the last year of their contract and playing for teams who aren’t expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. They could all be available without any commitment in the future, and a team like Toronto could add several if they’re willing to give up the prospects to do it.

You don’t see the Maple Leafs at the bottom of the salary list very often. You likely won’t again for a very long time. But for now, it’s making them either a cautious builder or a dangerous trade shark. Or maybe a bit of both.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach Fired In 2018-19?

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Not a single NHL head coach was fired during the 2017-18 season, though several changes have been made since. Barry Trotz and Bill Peters resigned their positions in Washington and Carolina, and were each hired to replace the outgoing bench bosses in New York and Calgary. Those two were Doug Weight and Glen Gulutzan, who both failed to get their teams to the playoffs in year two of their coaching history (Weight replaced Jack Capuano partway through the 2016-17 season). Assistant coaches moved up the ladder in Washington and Carolina, while the NCAA ranks were mined for new openings for the Dallas Stars and New York Rangers. Jim Montgomery and David Quinn took over for Ken Hitchcock and Alain Vingeault respectively, bringing new ideas and fresh faces to the NHL coaching circuit.

It’s not new for coaches to be fired in the offseason, but seeing no one sent packing during the year is a very rare occurrence. It was the first time it had happened since 1966-67, meaning the likelihood of it happening again in 2018-19 seems very low. So then, who will be the first to feel the seat burning underneath him? The last time we asked a question like this the readers correctly guessed that Vingeault was on his way out, but also listed Claude Julien in Montreal, Jeff Blashill in Detroit and Rick Tocchet in Arizona as possibilities.

Who will be the first coach fired in 2018-19? Will it happen at all? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comment section.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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We’re reaching the slowest point in the NHL offseason as we wait for training camp to arrive. While the World Junior Summer Showcase and KHL preseason are getting underway, we won’t see NHL hockey for some time. With that, we thought it necessary to answer some of your questions about how the offseason has gone. What are your biggest concerns about your favorite team, or what keeps you up at night wondering?

Our Brian La Rose is here to answer all your questions about the offseason, and explain what he thinks about the moves made around the league. Is the Tom Wilson contract going to haunt Washington down the road? Who was the most underrated addition? Where exactly is Tampa Bay supposed to get the cap space to add Erik Karlsson? Make sure to submit your questions using the hashtag #PHRMailbag on Twitter, or by commenting down below.

In the last PHR Mailbag which you can read right here, Brian tried to handicap the John Tavares sweepstakes the night before free agency opened. Though he did list Toronto as a real possibility, he expected like everyone else for the captain to return to New York. Brian touched on other subjects including goaltending, the Chicago Blackhawks and whether Jack Johnson is already overpaid.

Snapshots: Faulk, Skinner, Hanifin

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The Carolina Hurricanes traded Jeff Skinner yesterday, and many immediately jumped to a conclusion that they would be dealing Justin Faulk in the coming weeks. Faulk’s name has been listed just behind Skinner’s as potential trade bait for months, and with the extremely deep Carolina blue line there was an assumption someone would have to be moved. That might not necessarily happen just yet, as GM Don Waddell told reporters including Luke DeCock and Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer:

We never said we wanted to trade Justin Faulk. People assumed when we picked up Dougie Hamilton that was the direction we were going to go, but we don’t feel that same way. We feel if we do stay status quo, we’re going to have one of the best defensive corps in the league. Saying that, if some team steps up to the plate for him or another of our players we’re going to continue to look at that.

Faulk has two years left on his current contract and is a talent puck-moving defenseman, but currently projects out as the Hurricanes third option on the right side behind Hamilton and Brett Pesce. While it’s not clear exactly how the team will deploy their big crop of defensemen, with other teams in the league starved for right-handed blue line help you would think some offers have been brought to Waddell already. Interestingly though Waddell revealed that Faulk has a 16-team no-trade clause, something that hadn’t previously been reported.

  • Skinner meanwhile had a conference call of his own today, and explained why he waived his no-movement clause to go to the Buffalo Sabres. Joe Yerdon of The Athletic passes on that Skinner is excited about the young core in Buffalo, and that he’s looking forward to playing with Jack Eichel if he gets the chance. The Hurricanes meanwhile didn’t bring any other offers to him to try to get him to waive his clause, though Waddell told DeCock and Alexander that there was a “very limited” list of teams the young forward would have considered. The Sabres will now get a chance to convince Skinner to re-sign, given that his contract will expire in the summer of 2019.
  • A former Hurricane was the subject of conversation on Sportsnet 960 radio today, when Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving joined The Big Show with Rob Kerr and Pat Steinberg. Treliving said that the team is working with Hanifin on a new contract and that they’re heading in a “positive” direction, admitting that the arbitration cases were their priority for most of the summer. With arbitration finished, the Flames have just Hanifin and Hunter Shinkaruk still to sign as restricted free agents.

Minor Transactions: 08/03/18

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We got word on two arbitration decisions today and saw another settle before the hearing, taking three restricted free agents off the market in Mark Stone, Cody Ceci and Gemel Smith. Troy Brouwer replaced one of those names on the free agent list by being bought out, but other former NHL players have signed around the world. We’ll keep track of some of the minor moves right here:

  • Dwight King, a veteran of 365 NHL games, has signed in Austria for the 2018-19 season according to his agency 37 Hockey. King spent last year in the KHL where he registered 14 points in 49 games, but will try to take advantage of a lower league this time around. The 29-year old was once a 15-goal player for the Los Angeles Kings en route to a Stanley Cup, but couldn’t make much of an impact over the last few years.
  • Yannick Veilleux has signed a one-year deal with the Rochester Americans after spending last season with the Montreal Canadiens organization. Veilleux is still waiting to make his NHL debut, but will join a Rochester team that is looking to compete for the Calder Cup this season. Originally selected in the fourth round by the St. Louis Blues, Veilleux has never been quite able to fulfill his potential as an offensive power forward.
  • Chad Rau, who has spent the last two seasons in the KHL has now moved onto his fourth team in the league by signing with HC Bratislava. Rau played nine games for the Minnesota Wild back in 2011-12, but never could replicate the success he found during his time in the NCAA.

Gemel Smith Awarded $720K In Arbitration

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Soon after it was announced that Cody Ceci had been awarded $4.3MM in arbitration, Gemel Smith was given his new contract. The Dallas Stars forward has been awarded a one-year one-way $720K contract. Smith had filed for $900K, while the team had responded with a two-way contract offer while also placing him on waivers a few days before the hearing. Because the deal is under the walk-away threshold, the Stars had no choice but to sign Smith to the contract—something they’re likely just fine with given Smith’s value to the club as a depth forward.

The 24-year old played in 46 games last season, and though he recorded just 11 points he’s a useful player to keep around at such a low cost. Given that he has already cleared waivers, the team may decide to try and sneak him through again just before the season and keep him in the minor leagues, but there’s no guarantee a team wouldn’t jump at the opportunity in September. Had anyone claimed Smith they would have inherited his arbitration hearing without a possibility to reschedule, something teams don’t like to do without time to prepare.

Still, Smith may find himself behind other young forwards like Remi Elie, Jason Dickinson and Roope Hintz this year. He’ll have to battle for any playing time with the NHL club, but should be able to at least be an injury replacement. Though he is scheduled to still be a restricted free agent after this season, he actually could become a Group VI UFA should he fail to play in 17 games at the NHL level. The Stars will likely want to keep his rights, meaning he’ll get at least that many.

Latest On Artemi Panarin

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September 13th, the day that training camp opens for the Columbus Blue Jackets, is coming quickly. That’s also the date set by star forward Artemi Panarin to have all “business matters” pertaining to his next contract dealt with, leaving the Blue Jackets with just over a month to convince him to sign a long-term extension. Panarin isn’t even willing to negotiate at the moment, which puts GM Jarmo Kekalainen in a very tough position and could eventually force him to trade his best offensive weapon. The 26-year old forward is heading into the final year of his current contract, and could choose his landing spot as an unrestricted free agent next summer. As Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) reports, Panarin would seriously consider the Chicago Blackhawks as that landing spot, returning to the place that gave him his first NHL opportunity.

Chicago traded Panarin a year ago in a blockbuster deal that brought Brandon Saad back, but could end up with both if they were to convince the former to sign again in the summer of 2019. The Blackhawks were the team who first convinced Panarin to come to North America, signing him out of the KHL after he recorded 62 points for SKA St. Petersburg in 2014-15. That SKA team also included Ilya Kovalchuk and Evgeni Dadonov, who have both found their ways back to the NHL in Los Angeles and Florida respectively. Both might be considered contenders for Panarin’s services should he hit the open market, but it’s Chicago’s interest that makes the most sense.

Panarin found instant chemistry with Patrick Kane upon arriving in North America, resulting in Kane’s best two offensive seasons of his career. In 2015-16 Kane scored 106 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies, a level that the Blackhawks are dying to get him back to as they try to contend with their current core. Last season without Panarin on his wing, Kane reverted to 27 goals and 76 points, numbers very similar to what he’d put up before the two were put together. While those are still outstanding totals for the talented winger, bringing the pair back in 2019 would obviously be an attractive proposition.

In 2017-18 though, Panarin proved he could drive a line all by himself. Scoring a career-high 82 points, the 26-year old winger found a nice match with young center Pierre-Luc Dubois who was barely even expected to make the Blue Jackets roster. Instead, Dubois finished second among all Blue Jackets forwards with 48 points and eighth in Calder Trophy voting as one of the league’s best rookies. While Dubois looks like he’ll be a top option for the Blue Jackets for a long time, taking Panarin off his wing for this season could lead to disastrous results for the 20-year old center. That, and the fact that the team relied so heavily on Panarin’s offensive creativity, make it quite a difficult decision for Kekalainen. With the Blue Jackets expecting to compete for the playoffs once again, does he remove his best forward in order to get some future assets, or does he roll the dice and hope he can convince him to stay after the year is over?

For now, Blackhawks fans should just be happy that there isn’t any bad blood between Chicago and Panarin. An incredibly well-liked player for the franchise would at least consider a return if he ends up on the open market, though there would still be work to do in order to fit in what could be a huge cap hit. Panarin will likely be demanding somewhere around an $8-10MM salary, if not more depending on how this season goes. As one of the NHL’s most dangerous offensive players, he’ll be fighting off suitors during the free agent interview period.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cody Ceci Awarded $4.3MM Contract In Arbitration

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The arbitrator has made a decision and awarded Cody Ceci a one-year $4.3MM contract. Ceci had filed for $6.0MM, while the team had countered with $3.35MM. He will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal, but is now prohibited from signing an extension until January.

That is of course if Ceci and the Senators sign the deal at all, given that it is above the walk-away threshold of $4,222,941. The Senators could decide to allow Ceci to go to unrestricted free agency instead of taking the award, though that seems extremely unlikely in their current position. The team relies on Ceci heavily as the anchor of their defensive pairing, and if Erik Karlsson is indeed traded in the next few weeks Ceci would become the de facto #1 defenseman in Ottawa. The 24-year old already logged more than 23 minutes a night for the past two seasons, though that has come with very mixed results.

As the analytical community will point out, Ceci has never put up good possession numbers through his NHL career. That assessment comes in opposition of how the Senators obviously view him, and how his skills present themselves on the ice. A good skater with a quick pass and active stick, Ceci looks like he should be a solid two-way contributor for Ottawa. With just 19 points last season—and only 14 of those at even-strength—the offensive side of his game has still never really materialized, and he’s been given more and more difficult defensive matchups. With partner Dion Phaneuf now gone, Ceci will likely be paired with either Mark Borowiecki or Ben Harpur on the second pairing (assuming Karlsson is still around) to allow young Thomas Chabot more offensive freedom.

Next summer, Ceci will be eligible for arbitration again and would only be eligible for a one-year award. Similar to the situation Mark Stone found himself in this summer, Ceci would have to decide whether he wanted to explore a long-term deal or take his chances on the unrestricted free agent market in 2020. It’s not clear if the rest of the NHL holds him as high as Ottawa does, but there’s no doubt that he would have several suitors interesting in bringing him aboard. The Senators will obviously try to re-sign the young defenseman, but as with almost everyone on their roster they’ll have to consider a trade at some point.

We examined the Senators situation yesterday, and noted that they have almost no one on the books past the 2019-20 season. That allows them to pick and choose how to rebuild their franchise after falling so far in the last year, and Ceci will be a key decision. Since an arbitration award next summer will likely be even higher than the $4.3MM, they’ll have to decide whether he’s a core piece going forward or just more trade fodder to cash in for future assets.

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