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Archives for August 2018

Troy Brouwer Bought Out By Calgary Flames

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As expected, Troy Brouwer has been bought out by the Calgary Flames after clearing unconditional waivers today. The 32-year old forward had two years remaining on his contract, meaning the Flames will now carry a $1.5MM cap hit for the next four seasons. Brouwer is now free to sign with any other team as an unrestricted free agent.

Brouwer came to the Flames on July 1st, 2016 during a day which many teams around the league have come to regret. The free agent market that season was relatively weak, but several complementary players were given big dollars and term. Milan Lucic, Loui Eriksson, David Backes, and Andrew Ladd have all been including in trade speculation since, while others like Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen have been somewhat disappointing for their respective clubs. Brouwer, who was 31 by the time he played his first game in Calgary, actually looked like he might be a perfect fit for Calgary during his first game when he scored a short-handed goal and recorded three hits. The team had wanted to get more physical and bring some experience and defensive responsibility to their lineup, and Brouwer had a history of each.

Unfortunately, the offense would dry up for long stretches of 2016-17 and Brouwer would end up with just 13 goals and 25 points. Last season was even worse, as the veteran forward registered just six goals in 76 games and saw his playing time reduced to the lowest it has been his entire career. The writing was on the wall, and when the Flames went out and brought in James Neal, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik and Elias Lindholm to bolster their forward group, someone had to go. The team has plenty of young forwards ready to push for those limited minutes on the fourth line, just waiting for an opportunity to show what they can do at the NHL level.

More importantly perhaps than the roster spot is the $3MM in cap space created, which now allows the Flames to discuss a long-term extension for Noah Hanifin if they so choose. Before getting rid of Brouwer’s contract, the team might not have had the money to buy out several UFA seasons from Hanifin and likely would have needed to go with a bridge deal to keep the cap hit reasonably low. Now, with over $7.5MM in cap space they could lock up their young defender for many years to come and make sure he’s a part of the future. Hanifin remember already has three years under his belt, meaning he’ll become a UFA after four more seasons at the age of 25.

The cap space will also allow Calgary to be more flexible during the season, and perhaps be players once again on the trade market come February. After a disappointing 2017-18 season in which they missed the playoffs completely, the team should be at least competing for the postseason this time around. With a deeper forward corps and talented defensive group, they’ll have to hope for a healthy season from Mike Smith or for one of David Rittich or Jon Gillies to step up and show they can be a starter at the NHL level.

Brouwer meanwhile will likely land somewhere else quickly, as even with his reduced offensive impact he’s still well respected around the league as a bottom-six player. With what will now be an extremely reduced price tag, the veteran forward could sign a one-year deal to prove he can still be effective. He has played some center before, though his natural position is on the wing, and has a long history of penalty killing. His extremely low goal total can also at least somewhat be attributed to the huge drop in shooting percentage he experienced last season. After scoring on an above average 14.2% of his shots through the first decade of his career, Brouwer registered just a 7.6% shooting percentage this season. Though his shot creation numbers also fell dramatically, he could still be relied upon for somewhere around 10 goals and 25 points next season, a fine total for a fourth-line player—as long as he’s not making $4.5MM.

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Avoid Arbitration

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With neither side really wanting to go through the arbitration process today in Toronto, Mark Stone and the Ottawa Senators have settled on a one-year contract. The deal will pay Stone $7.35MM this season, and carry him through to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. The two sides cannot sign an extension until January. Our Brian La Rose projected this exact contract yesterday when he broke down the Stone arbitration case.

The 26-year old played just 58 games for the Senators last season, but was easily the team’s best forward registering 20 goals and 62 points. That point-per-game pace pushed Stone from a very good player to one of the league’s best, especially when combined with his trademark takeaway ability and solid defensive presence. Even with the limited number of games, he still earned Selke votes for the fourth consecutive year and led all Senators in takeaways.

For all the positive things Stone brings, a one-year contract will lead to immediate speculation about his future in Ottawa. The team is heading for a rebuild, and now all three of their best players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next summer. Stone, Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene all have just one year remaining on their deals, making them prime trade candidates over the next few months. Even if things go better than expected during the first half of the 2018-19 season, the team still has to consider moving these big assets for whatever they can get, depending on whether they’re willing to sign a long-term extension. Though it’s unclear if Stone would even re-enter negotiations, the fact that the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement this summer only puts creates more pressure down the road.

The Senators will have a two-month window to sign Stone at the beginning of 2019 before facing the trade deadline. If he remains unsigned, you can bet there will be dozens of teams clamoring to get a piece of him as a playoff rental with a chance to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Evander Kane, Paul Stastny and others set the market this season, but Stone is a more effective offensive piece than either of them and could bring back a bigger package should his contributions on the ice continue this season. As one of only a few top-end options in Ottawa, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive more than 20 minutes a night once again.

Those first line minutes shouldn’t come as a surprise now that Stone carries such a huge salary. His new contract makes him the 24th-highest paid forward in the league for 2018-19, putting pressure on him to perform as the best player up front for Ottawa. It also means that a long-term extension would be incredibly pricey, something that the Senators may just not have the money for. Remember this was a restricted free agent year still, which usually comes in at a lower price than the player would be demanding on the UFA market. If Stone wanted an even bigger cap hit for seven or eight years, Ottawa might have to back out of negotiations purely from a financial standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Moore, Davidsson, Hall

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At this time of the offseason, veteran free agents often have to begin to consider the possibility of going to training camp on a tryout deal.  One player who doesn’t believe he should be in this situation is center Dominic Moore, who told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox that he doesn’t believe he should have to try out for a deal:

“I’ve played how many seasons in a row now without losing a game due to injury? I think my track record [speaks for itself]. People know what I do, what I bring. A tryout doesn’t seem to make sense in that context.”

Moore only played in 52 games last season as he was a frequent healthy scratch with the Maple Leafs.  The soon-to-be 38-year-old is still strong at the faceoff dot but that alone may not be enough to land him a guaranteed deal as veterans like Antoine Vermette and Mark Letestu find themselves in similar situations and could be forced to look at PTOs if nothing surfaces in the weeks to come.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Although he is 21 and now on his entry-level deal, Columbus prospect Jonathan Davidsson will not play at the AHL level if he fails to make the Blue Jackets’ opening roster next season, notes Craig Merz of NHL.com. Instead, he would return to Djurgardens of the SHL where he played a key role for them last year with 31 points in 52 games.  It was his performance last year that has him on the NHL radar despite being selected in the sixth round (170th overall) just one year ago.
  • Devils winger Taylor Hall has switched agencies and will now be represented by DHG Sports Agency, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link). He had previously been repped by the Orr Hockey Group.  The league MVP will still have to wait a while for his next contract talks to begin as he’s ineligible to sign an extension until next July.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mark Stone

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While the Senators have already gone through one arbitration hearing this week with defenseman Cody Ceci, they’re on the verge of needing to do so with winger Mark Stone as well as his hearing is set for Friday morning.  The pre-hearing filings were exchanged on Wednesday with Ottawa offering $5MM and Stone asking for $9MM.  This has the potential to be a record-setting award so let’s take a closer look at this case.

The Numbers

Over the past four seasons, the 26-year-old has been pretty consistent offensively.  He has scored at least 20 times in each of those years and has had between 54-64 points in those seasons as well.  That type of production lines up with a high-end second liner or quality top liner.

However, 2017-18’s numbers have to be looked at a little closer.  Stone posted 62 points (20-42-62) last year but did so in only 58 games.  In other words, he played at an 88-point pace which ranked 14th league-wide among qualifying players.  That would put him in the high-end front liner range which likely has played a big role in his asking price.

The Senators haven’t hesitated to use Stone in all situations.  He led the team in ice time by a forward by a sizable margin (while ranking 11th league-wide) and averaged more than three minutes per night on the power play with a couple of shorthanded shifts as well.

With that in mind, it’s going to be difficult for Ottawa to argue that Stone deserves to be paid like a second-line player when their own usage of him is considerably different not to mention his big jump in points per game last season.

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency. For this exercise, I’ve taken it a step further and restricted this list to deals inked with arbitration eligibility which takes post-ELC deals like Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, and Vladimir Tarasenko off the table.

Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) – Huberdeau signed his current deal that carries a $5.9MM cap hit (4.45 cap hit percentage) after a 59-point season and was viewed as the time as someone that could be a top line player but would be even better on the second line.  That seems to be what Ottawa is going for here so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re citing this deal as a comparable although it seems fair to say that this comparable is going to be on the low end.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – Johansen inked an eight-year, $64MM deal (10.67 cap hit percentage) coming off a three-year bridge contract which is the same situation as Stone is currently in.  At that time, he had four seasons of 60 or more points under his belt so Ottawa could try to argue that Johansen’s track record offensively is better.  However, Johansen hasn’t gotten particularly close to the point-per-game mark that Stone passed last season either.

Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis) – While Stone isn’t elite at the faceoff dot like O’Reilly ($7.5MM AAV, 10.5 cap hit percentage) is, the similarities are fairly strong otherwise.  At the time the deal was signed, O’Reilly was coming off seasons of 64 and 55 points and his production since then has ranged between 55-61 points which is right in Stone’s range as well.  On top of that, they’re both well-regarded as two-way forwards.

Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) – While Wheeler’s contract ($5.6MM AAV, 8.71 cap hit percentage) is now viewed as a bargain, the fact he’s significantly outperformed the contract since he signed it back in 2013 doesn’t really matter much.  At the time of the deal, Wheeler only had one 60-point year under his belt (although he played at that pace in the lockout-shortened year as well).  His cap hit is close to Ottawa’s submission but once you factor in the increase in the salary cap since then, the value in today’s dollars is just shy of $7MM.

Projection

The awards thus far have been right down the middle of the filings and there’s a decent chance that will be the case here as well.  It may be a bit tough for Stone to get the 10% or higher that Johansen and O’Reilly got as he doesn’t play the premium position they do either.  It will also be difficult for the arbitrator to really assess the season Stone just had – is that a sign of things to come or the statistical outlier?  Given that he has been closer to a 0.8 point-per-game average for the better part of his career, I think the arbitrator may skew a little more conservatively here.

Could this award (if it gets that far) set the record for the biggest one ever, surpassing Shea Weber’s $7.5MM?  It could, but I don’t think it will.  The cap percentage for that deal was 11.66 which is higher than what Stone’s probably going to get.

That said, Stone has a shot at setting a new award record for a forward ($7MM for John LeClair in 2000).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the award come in between the filings midpoint of $7MM and Weber’s record award.  I think if Stone had put up a second season of close to point-per-game production, an award closer to $8MM would have been a legitimate possibility.  Instead, a one-year, $7.35MM contract (9.25 cap hit percentage) feels like a reasonable projection, one that lines him up for unrestricted free agency next summer and a whole lot of trade speculation between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 8/2/18

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As the calendar turns to August, some players who were on NHL deals last season have been forced to seek minor league deals this summer.  Here’s a rundown of today’s minor moves.

  • The Avalanche have signed UFA winger Tim McGauley to a one-year, minor league contract, their AHL team announced. McGauley signed with the Capitals as an undrafted free agent in October of 2015 and finished third in the WHL in scoring that season.  However, that failed to translate to much success at the professional level as he has spent the majority of his pro career at the ECHL level.  Last season, he recorded 36 points in 48 games with Washington’s ECHL affiliate, recording 36 points but that wasn’t enough to garner a qualifying offer from the team back in June.
  • From that same announcement, the Avs also inked winger Cole Ully to a one-year, minor league pact. After spending all of 2016-17 in the AHL, the 23-year-old was dropped down to Idaho of the ECHL for most of last year where he picked up 39 points in 40 games.  He was non-tendered by Dallas in June.
  • Boston has inked winger Chase Balisy to a one-year AHL deal, reports Mark Divver of the Providence Journal (Twitter link).  The 26-year-old got into eight games with the Panthers last season but spent the majority of the year at the AHL level, collecting 35 points in 67 games in Springfield.  As he had more than three professional years under his belt with less than 80 career NHL games, Balisy was eligible for Group Six unrestricted free agency.

Sabres Acquire Jeff Skinner

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The Sabres have added to their forward group, announcing that they have acquired winger Jeff Skinner from Carolina.  In return, the Hurricanes receive prospect winger Cliff Pu, a 2019 second-round pick, a 2020 third-round pick, and a 2020 sixth-rounder.

Skinner spent his entire eight-year career with Carolina and had been one of their more consistent scoring threats during that time.  He had scored at least 20 goals in six of those seasons (and one of the years he didn’t was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign).

He is, however, coming off of bit a quieter year by his standards.  Last season, he played in all 82 games, tallying 24 goals and 25 assists which ranked him fourth in team scoring.  That production was down considerably from 2016-17 when he posted a career-best 63 points.

It was a bit surprising how much the Hurricanes seemed to be interested in moving Skinner but with Don Waddell now at the helm of the franchise instead of former GM Ron Francis who was much more methodical, Carolina has been trying to shake up their roster this summer.  This is the second significant move they’ve made this offseason with the other seeing defenseman Noah Hanifin and forward Elias Lindholm shipped to Calgary for a package highlighted by blueliner Dougie Hamilton.

The Sabres likely will envision their new acquisition playing alongside Jack Eichel on a new-look top line.  Eichel hasn’t had someone like Skinner to play with thus far in his career and the same can be said for Skinner not quite having someone like Eichel as his center.  That combination should have Buffalo fans more enthusiastic heading into the season and if the two click, Skinner should be in line for quite the season as free agency approaches.

Buffalo is taking on Skinner’s full $5.725MM cap hit (with a $6MM salary).  The winger also waived his no-move clause to facilitate a deal, something that Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer reported earlier this week was complicating their efforts to move him.

As for Pu, Carolina is bringing in a quality prospect who has been a productive OHL scorer since being drafted in the third round (69th overall) two years ago.  He split last season between London and Kingston, combining to score 29 goals and 55 assists in 65 games.  Pu is now signed to his entry-level deal and will likely start next season with Charlotte of the AHL.

It will be interesting to see if the Hurricanes look to replace Skinner outside of the organization now that they have some payroll freed up.  Alternatively, they could look to second-overall pick Andrei Svechnikov to step in and play a top-six role right away.  Either way, Carolina is going to look quite different when the puck drops on the new season in October.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Signs In OHL

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If you’re a fan of the Buffalo Sabres and the OHL you’re in luck, as top goaltending prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has decided to play for the Sudbury Wolves this season instead of going back to Finland. Luukkonen was the third pick in the CHL import draft which was a strong indicator that he would come to North America right away. The Sabres signed him to a three-year entry-level contract in June, and were likely big supporters of coming over where they can see him more often.

Luukkonen, 19, was the Sabres second-round pick in 2017 and is among the top goaltending prospects in hockey. Standing 6’4″ already, at times it can seem as though Luukkonen fills up the entire net with his huge frame and yet still has quick movements and reflexes. His results have varied throughout his career in Finland, but there are few who doubt his potential to be a starting goaltender one day in the NHL. That’s a tough thing to live up to for any young netminder though since the game changes so much at each level, meaning this year will be a good test to see if he can dominate right away.

Sudbury struggled all over the ice last season and had poor performances in net, but should be improved this season in front of Luukkonen. If he can perform well this season, there could be a spot for him in the AHL as soon as 2019-20. The Sabres are promoting Linus Ullmark to the NHL this season and signed Carter Hutton for the next three years, but don’t have a ton of young depth at the position. Scott Wedgewood will be the likely starter in the AHL this season, but that could be just keeping the crease warm for Luukkonen’s arrival.

Franchise Reset In Ottawa Could Come Quickly

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The Ottawa Senators have had one of the worst years imaginable, going from overtime in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, to a good bet for the bottom of the NHL standings in the upcoming season. During that time they used a big package of future assets to acquire Matt Duchene, had a public locker room problem that forced a clearance sale of Mike Hoffman, dealt with a legal scandal for one of their front office executives and couldn’t even win a draft lottery spot. That’s not even mentioning the potential trade of franchise defenseman and captain Erik Karlsson, which still may occur before the start of the season.

Even though there has been nothing but struggles for the Senators of late, a successful navigation of the next few seasons could set them up for a quick rebuild. The Senators currently only have one player, forward Bobby Ryan, signed for more than three seasons and will see at least eight roster players hit the unrestricted free agent market in 2019. That kind of financial freedom can really help a franchise, even one like Ottawa that doesn’t usually spend up to the salary cap and instead operates on an internal budget.

In a perfect world, the team would be able to re-sign Karlsson, Duchene and Mark Stone to multi-year contracts and supplement them with some young talent to compete right away. But it doesn’t seem like any of those things will be possible for the Senators, which might still leave them with a perfectly acceptable second option. Trading all three could immediately jump the Senators prospect pool to one of the best in the NHL, especially given their recent addition of Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Bernard-Docker. The fact that they don’t own their 2019 first-round pick hurts, but at this point is a sunk cost and has to be worked around.

There are other roster players who could still bring value back in trade, and given that almost all of them will hit UFA status in the next two seasons there may be a firesale coming before long. While that will cause a painful season (or two), there’s no reason to believe that the Senators can’t put it behind them in short order. They have just over $17MM committed to roster players in 2020-21, and a good chunk of that is Ryan who could potentially be strapped to Karlsson on his way out. Even if they’re only hitting the salary cap floor, by that point they’d still need to be adding somewhere around $45MM.

It’s hard to believe that a team experiencing such lows could be close to bouncing back, but we’ve seen it multiple times over the last few seasons. The Toronto Maple Leafs went from dead last to the playoffs in just one season, but it was clearing their future salaries that allowed them to have so much success so quickly. The team traded away hefty contracts like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf for whatever they could get, and built around a young core instead. Auston Matthews was obviously the spark that set the Maple Leafs competitive fire, but they were already headed in the right direction.

The Colorado Avalanche just experienced something similar, ironically moving Duchene to Ottawa in order to give their younger players more opportunity. Colorado jumped from a historically bad 2016-17 back to the playoffs last season, riding a young core of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen all season. Before signing Ian Cole, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Calvert this summer, the Avalanche too had a very bare future salary book. Only MacKinnon, Erik Johnson and Gabriel Landeskog were signed through 2020-21, giving them the flexibility to add when they were ready.

Ottawa already decided not to sign Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard to extensions, instead trading them away during the season. They also dealt Phaneuf’s contract away, though had to take Marian Gaborik back to do it. There’s more work to be done to build up the prospect system to a point where it could really compete in just a few years, but there is definitely potential to do so.

Dylan Larkin Expects To Sign Before Training Camp

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There are still some big name restricted free agents that remain unsigned around the league, including Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings. After leading his club in scoring last season Larkin wasn’t eligible for arbitration and was in no rush to get a new contract early in the offseason. Larkin was a guest coach at the Red Wings’ youth camp today, where he spoke to reporters including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press:

I feel pretty confident that something will get done before training camp. No worries about it.

St. James tweets that the two sides are looking at a five or six-year contract, which would buy out at least one unrestricted free agent year. Every time that you take away UFA seasons from a talented young player the cap hit of the deal will increase, something that the Red Wings will have to carefully navigate in contract talks. The team currently has just $2.8MM in cap space, though Johan Franzen’s contract will eventually be placed on long-term injured reserve. The team can also be up to $7.95MM (10% of the cap) over the ceiling during the offseason, meaning they could sign Larkin and then make additional moves before the year begins.

With 63 points last season, Larkin finally started fulfilling his potential as a top center in the NHL. His physical gifts are obvious, blessed as one of the league’s fastest skaters and possessing high-end puck skills and playmaking ability. His 39 even-strength assists put him behind only Connor McDavid, Claude Giroux, Artemi Panarin, Steven Stamkos and Mathew Barzal, while his 6.9% shooting percentage will almost certainly improve going forward. Logging nearly 20 minutes a night, Larkin established himself as the future in Detroit and could easily take another step forward next season after turning 22 just a few days ago.

The Red Wings are still in trouble financially for the next few seasons, but are slowly turning things around through the draft. With Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno joining the organization from this draft’s first round, and other young players like Dennis Cholowski and Michael Rasmussen closing in on the NHL, there could be a youth movement coming in the next few seasons. Larkin will be the spearhead for that movement, and should get some contract certainty in the next few weeks.

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