This edition of the PHR Mailbag features a look at the Blackhawks, Blues, and Islanders plus discussions on a new Pittsburgh defenseman and a certain free agent center that is holding up the market.
Zack35: What do you think the percentages are on Tavares sweepstakes? Does NYI 40%, SJ 40%, everyone else 20% sound about right?
acarneglia: Which John Tavares suitor is the best fit for him of Boston, Tampa, Dallas, Toronto and San Jose?
Not surprisingly, Tavares was a popular topic in the questions so I’ll tackle this from a couple of different angles.
In terms of the percentages, I’d give the Islanders (40%) a slight edge over San Jose (35%) simply because of the eighth year option and the fact that Tavares has said in the past he genuinely would like to stay (and I believe him). In terms of the third best odds, I’d put Toronto (10%) ahead of the others simply because of the hometown factor and the potential for a one-year max deal that would allow him to really cash in now and then still land a huge contract next summer. I’d have Dallas (7.5%) next since both Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza are UFAs at the end of the year; there is a long-term spot for him that wouldn’t require a whole lot of roster movement to fit him in. That’s not the case for Boston (3.75%) who already has a couple of pricey centers locked up (plus David Backes) and Tampa Bay (3.75%) who simply don’t have the cap room and would have to make a few moves to fit him in now and then a few more next summer.
As for where he fits in the best aside from New York, I’ll once again lead with San Jose. Their center position could really change in the next little while and I think he would complement their offense well. After that, I’d go with Dallas given the potential UFA situation a year from now. The Leafs would love to have him and Auston Matthews as a one-two punch but with Matthews and Mitch Marner up a year from now, they’d have a hard time keeping all three around long-term. Is it ideal to lock up Tavares to a max-term deal knowing they’ll probably have to deal one of the other two away a year from now? After that, I’d put Boston ahead of Tampa Bay but I don’t like the fit that much for either team.
shelteredsoxfan: What sort of moves do you see the Blackhawks making this offseason?
They need a better backup goalie and while I’m not convinced he’s the best option out there, it certainly sounds like Cam Ward will be the choice there. I doubt that Anton Forsberg will draw much trade interest so Ward’s addition shouldn’t result in a follow-up move.
Defensively, I have a hard time thinking they’re going to bring back the same unit that struggled in 2017-18. Considering what they have coming up in the pipeline though, I think they’d prefer to go the trade route and get someone with a year or two left on their contract that can play on the second pairing over giving a long-term deal to someone like Calvin de Haan. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them look to move Connor Murphy who has four years left on his deal in that type of trade.
Up front is where it’s interesting. I think they’d like to make a splash and go after someone like James van Riemsdyk and really give themselves another scoring threat. However, the cap room is going to be iffy, even with Marian Hossa going back on LTIR. (Speaking of Hossa, I think GM Stan Bowman will be calling his counterpart in Ottawa about trying to offload that contract at some point.) I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is the summer that Artem Anisimov gets moved. Nick Schmaltz may be ready to take on a full-time second line role and enough teams will miss out on the few centers that are out there that they’ll view Anisimov as a fallback option. A youngster-based return would free up enough space to take a run at one of those top wingers on the open market as well. The pieces are there if Chicago wants to shake things up this summer.
@swabbb1: Hey #PHRMailbag, is Jack Johnson worth the money and 5-year deal reports out of Pittsburgh say the Pens will give him as early as Sunday? Thanks.
I know the numbers aren’t pretty but I think Johnson in a new environment will rebound somewhat. He has needed a change of scenery for a while and I think that will rejuvenate him. With that in mind, I don’t hate the AAV for this deal. If he can be a decent fourth or fifth defender, that’s about the going rate in free agency. It’s not a bargain but I don’t think it will be a massive overpay, at least at the start.
But five years? I’m having a hard time spinning that into a positive. It’s not like he’s 27 or 28 and can realistically be expected to still be a good contributor five years from now. He’s 31 and is going to be showing signs of slowing down over the next couple of years, especially with all of the hard minutes he has played in the past. I’d have thought three years at that AAV would have been reasonable.
There is some reward potential with this contract. If getting to a new team (and one that has had success getting blueliners back on track) gets Johnson going, this could turn into a good deal. But there is a lot of risk involved here as well, especially in those last couple of years.
Anakin Skywalker: With the chance Carter Hutton doesn’t re-sign with the Blues, should they target Lehner, Mrazek, or call up Husso?
When it comes to young goalies, unless they’re pushing to be the starter, I’m a believer in letting them exhaust their waiver exemption before bringing them up to sit on the bench for 60 games a year. Minutes matter and Ville Husso is going to get a lot more of them in the minors than he will with the Blues so I’m all for St. Louis signing another goalie in free agency.
I prefer Robin Lehner of the two options you’ve provided. Yes, he had a rough year in Buffalo but he had minimal defense in front of him. He’s going to be motivated and with the Blues, he’d have a much better back end helping him out. I think they’d like to add someone that can push Jake Allen and of the goalies that are available on the open market, Lehner’s the likeliest to do so out of any of them which would make him my primary target.
nk: Although I believe the Isles will sign JT, there are other needs especially in goal and on D. Who do you think the Isles will go after (either in trade market or UFA) for a goaltender and with a poor D and the reality that both Hickey and de Haan are probably gone, who steps up, in or is acquired to bolster that position?
In terms of goaltending, they’ve been linked to Ottawa’s Craig Anderson which is a reasonable fit. I can’t see the asking price being particularly high and if recent history repeats itself, he’s in line for a good year in 2018-19. They can have their choice of stopgap goalies in free agency (Carter Hutton would have been my pick but he seems to be Buffalo-bound). After that, I like Petr Mrazek as an option for them as he has shown in the past he can be capable of getting on a hot streak. He’d be a platoon player with Thomas Greiss and while that’s not the best tandem on paper, both netminders have had solid stretches in the past. I wouldn’t be shocked if they kick the tires on some younger options as well such as Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry, Montreal’s Charlie Lindgren, or even Toronto’s Garret Sparks if GM Lou Lamoriello liked what he saw from him in his days with the Maple Leafs.
The options aren’t as plentiful on defense. If de Haan leaves, I could see them turning to Ian Cole as a potential replacement. He probably can’t log the 20 or so minutes per game that de Haan can but he should at least be able to cover 17 or 18 minutes a night and give them another physical player on their back end. They’ll expect Ryan Pulock to take a big jump forward and I suspect they’ll be comfortable using Sebastian Aho more as well. Is that really enough? Probably not. I could see the Islanders looking to take on a salary cap dump from another team to try to upgrade their depth – Tampa Bay’s Braydon Coburn and St. Louis’ Carl Gunnarsson (if they plan to be active in free agency) come to mind as candidates. It’s patchwork but this isn’t a good summer to try to really rebuild a defense corps so unless they want to part with a top pick or prospect, that’s about all they’ll be able to do.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Thanks for answering my question! I think the hawks are going to have a busy offseason. I’d love for the hawks to sign JVR although the cap space may not be there. JVR would bring an element to the hawks that they lack and that is the ability to go to net and get the dirty goals. The hawks don’t do that enough and it shows, especially on the power play, where they spend far too much time passing and looking for the perfect play, rather than driving hard to the net and making life miserable for opposing goalies. I think JVR would help a lot in that regard, because if you look at where he scores most of his goals, it’s from right outside the net area
The bruins could just trade Krejci for picks and they would have the space to sign Tavares..