Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.
Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black
Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett
Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer
Notable Exemptions
Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen
Key Decisions
The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.
Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.
Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle‘s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour
Defensemen
Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic
Goalie
Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.
So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.
Pacific Notes: Ducks, Robinson, Schmalz
The Anaheim Ducks face one of the tougher challenges when it comes to navigating through the upcoming expansion draft and that fact isn’t lost on GM Bob Murray. He noted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that he has already had discussions and made offers to Golden Knights GM George McPhee about what type of sweetener it may take for him to not take the top player they leave exposed:
“There may be ways to do things with George where I can not affect too much. Giving him something he may need. George is a very intelligent man, and I have a pretty good idea what he is going to try to do there. I can obviously help him with that a little bit. “There’s certain players here there’s just no way I can afford to lose them.”
The Ducks have several high quality defenders that are worthy of protection that would undoubtedly draw interest from Vegas if left unprotected. If they want to protect more than the standard three, that would force them to only protect a maximum of four forwards which would likely leave Jakob Silfverberg exposed and he too would surely be of interest to McPhee. Murray certainly realizes the situation he’s in and now, it’s just a matter of trying to figure out what type of side deal it’s going to take to keep their core players intact beyond the expansion draft.
Elsewhere around the Pacific:
- The Sharks have parted ways with director of player development Larry Robinson, reports Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette. The Hall of Fame blueliner had been with San Jose for the past five seasons in a couple of different roles, including associate coach. Though he’s 66, he isn’t looking to retire just yet but wants a job that will allow him to be closer to his home in Florida on a more regular basis. It’s unlikely that he’d return behind the bench but a role similar to the one he had in San Jose where he worked primarily with defensemen would certainly be a possibility.
- The Kings have yet to decide if they will offer a contract to 2015 fifth rounder Matt Schmalz, notes Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider. They have until June 1st to sign the 21 year old winger or they lose his rights. Schmalz doesn’t project to be a big scorer at the professional level but he stands 6’6 and has a nose for the net which could make him an intriguing bottom six forward. Los Angeles has plenty of room on their 50 contract limit to get him signed as they have just 30 players signed so far for next season.
Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
After finishing the 2015-16 season with 81 points (a 27 point increase on the previous year) a Stanley Cup-winning coach and a budding superstar who had scored 56 points as a teenager, the Buffalo Sabres felt pretty good about their future. So they went out and gave a 28-year old Kyle Okposo a seven-year, $42MM deal, traded for Dmitry Kulikov and held onto the off-ice troublemaker Evander Kane. It looked like they would compete for the playoffs this season, but the optimism wasn’t held for long.
Decimated by injury, the team couldn’t put it together even after Eichel’s mid-season return and would finish with just 78 points. They now head into this offseason with a much different outlook, clearing house and bringing in first-time GM (save for a short interim period in Pittsburgh) Jason Botterill to hire coaches for both the NHL and AHL clubs. They’ll pick eighth once again in this year’s entry draft and have quite a lot of picks in the first few rounds, though are looking to compete next season and catch up with the success that Edmonton and Toronto realized this season. In terms of expansion, they find themselves in a pretty good spot because many of their prized possessions are still ineligible for selection.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo (NMC), Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Kea, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson
Defensemen:
Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe, Justin Falk, Brady Austin
Goaltenders:
Notable Exemptions
Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Nicholas Baptiste, C.J. Smith, Hudson Fasching, Brendan Guhle, Justin Bailey, Viktor Antipin
Key Decisions
The Sabres have no need to go with the eight skater route unless they make a move for a defenseman prior to the draft, and even then it would mean exposing some of their forwards for no reason. With Franson and Kulikov both headed to free agency, there isn’t a glut of defenders to protect this season. Their biggest decisions will be with the last couple of spots up front, for which there are some interesting candidates.
Obviously O’Reilly will be protected, as he’s likely the team’s second best forward and is still just entering his prime. Though the trade and contract hasn’t worked out exactly as Buffalo had hoped, the 26-year old is still an excellent center capable of competing among the elite players of the game. Okposo too will be protected, though his no-movement clause doesn’t give much chance otherwise. He had a scary bout in the hospital recently, but he is apparently on the road to recovery and should be ready for next season. Kane, for all his trouble outside of the rink is still an effective scoring threat inside of it and will be protected. Whether he starts next year in Buffalo may be another story, but the team won’t just give him away for free. 
The interesting decisions come in the next few slots. It’s been two years now since Ennis was an effective scorer in the league, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. With just 24 points in 74 games combined over two seasons, his $4.6MM cap-hit looks incredibly high. There are only two more seasons on it, but like Moulson who is in a similar situation, Ennis just doesn’t produce at a high enough level anymore to warrant the deal. The Sabres could leave him available, or protect him and hope for a big bounce-back year in his age-28 season. Similar things could be said for Foligno and Girgensons, who still haven’t found that next level in their offensive production. They each are solid NHL players, and have room to grow but are both restricted free agents this summer and decisions will have to be made on their future with the club.
Among the other interesting young players are Larsson and Carrier, both of whom are second-round picks who have shown snippets of their potential as solid NHL contributors. Larsson missed most of this season due to injury, while Carrier made his NHL debut and stuck for 41 games. Perhaps Botterill believes that one of them has more to give offensively, or could be part of a shutdown line in the future. Vegas would certainly take a risk on either one as they’ve already shown they’re at least capable of staying in an NHL lineup.
On defense, there isn’t much to decide outside of perhaps what to do if Gorges is selected. It would be hard to see him earn a protection slot, but the veteran still did log valuable minutes for the Sabres this season. The 32-year old defensive specialist has just one year left on his contract, but could be part of a leadership group in Vegas should they decide he’s worth it.
In net, Lehner will be protected and given the reins to the team once again. Ullmark does pose an interesting option for Vegas, as he has actually posted a strong .913 save percentage in 21 NHL starts. At just 23 he’s ready to take on a bigger role and should spend most of the season in the NHL if Anders Nilsson isn’t retained this summer.
Speaking of Nilsson, he represents one of the possible free agent acquisitions that Vegas could sign prior to the draft if they choose. That would mean forfeiting their selection from Buffalo, but perhaps he or one of the free agent defensemen—Franson or Kulikov—would be worth it. Franson is still a good possession player with solid offensive upside, even if he does need sheltering at times from tough defensive matchups. With such a lack of right-handed shot defensemen on the market, perhaps he would be appealing to the young Vegas club. Giving up their selection from Buffalo would be tough though, and would need them to believe a bidding war of sorts would occur after July 1st—something that for any of the Sabres’ free agents would be hard to believe.
Projected Protection List
F Kyle Okposo (NMC)
F Ryan O’Reilly
F Evander Kane
F Zemgus Girgensons
F Marcus Foligno
F Johan Larsson
F William Carrier
D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Zach Bogosian
D Jake McCabe
As Botterill continues to try and reshape the team into what he wants going forward, leaving exposed the big, underperforming cap-hits of Ennis and Moulson seems like the way to go, even if it does give up the chance of a bounce-back. A 27-year old, three-time 20-goal man would be tough to watch walk out the door, but the Golden Knights would almost certainly jump on Carrier or Larsson if left unprotected.
There is always a chance that the team moves Kane or another forward before the draft, opening up another slot for them to protect. Like many other teams that need defense though, acquiring one before the expansion draft from a worried club would put one of your own at risk. While Bogosian has been somewhat of a disappointment since he arrived from Winnipeg, giving him up for free seems a bit short-sighted. That means a deal for one of the surplus Anaheim defenders, or a Minnesota blueliner doesn’t seem in the cards in the next few weeks.
One thing to note is that newly signed Viktor Antipin is not eligible for the draft, despite his extensive experience in the KHL. The years of professional experience he gained in Russia don’t count towards the expansion draft requirements because he wasn’t playing them under an NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC). He’s a first year pro, and will be untouchable in the draft.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Mike Kelly To Join Golden Knights’ Coaching Staff
Former Florida Panthers Assistant Coach Mike Kelly will be joining Gerard Gallant behind the bench in Las Vegas this fall.
This news comes from TSN insider Darren Dreger, who says an official announcement regarding Kelly and other assistant coaches is a few weeks away.
Read more: Gerard Gallant Named Vegas’ Head Coach
Kelly has previously served alongside Gallant when the pair were in Florida from 2014 to 2016. Both men were fired last November after the Panthers won 11 of their first 22 games.
Prior to his time in Florida, Kelly spent four years with the QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs, spending two years as the Director of Hockey Operations and Associate Head Coach before being promoted to Head Coach and General Manager. The Sea Dogs won the Memorial Cup in 2011. Kelly has also been a head coach or assistant in the AHL, OHL, WHL, Canadian University hockey, and both the U-18 and U-20 Team Canada teams.
Expansion Primer: Arizona Coyotes
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
After going to the playoffs three consecutive years from 2010-12 the Arizona Coyotes have taken a sharp downturn in recent years, culminating in another disappointing season in 2016-17. They finished in 28th place with just 70 points, and unfortunately dropped all the way to seventh in the upcoming draft. Since most of their impressive assets are still very young, the team shouldn’t have much trouble protecting their future in the upcoming expansion draft. They do however have some interesting names that may be taken.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder, Brad Richardson, Josh Jooris, Mitchell Moroz, Tyler Gaudet, Peter Holland, Brandan Troock, Jeremy Morin, Jordan Martinook, Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Duclair, Teemu Pulkkinen
Defensemen:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski (NMC), Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn, Kevin Connauton
Goaltenders:
Notable Exemptions
Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Brendan Perlini, Nick Merkley
Key Decisions
Like the Colorado Avalanche who we profiled yesterday, the Coyotes have more than enough protection slots to go around up front. Unlike the Avalanche though, who have a tough situation on defense the Coyotes will more than likely use the 7-3-1 method, allowing them to protect all of their valuable contracts.
Up front, the Coyotes amazingly have just three players signed for next season who are eligible to be taken, though several other restricted free agents will warrant protection. With seven slots, they actually have enough to even acquire another player or two without putting anything of true value at risk. Holland, Martinook, and Jooris all have shown various levels of upside in their NHL time, while others like Pulkkinen have performed well at the AHL level.
Because of the extremely few veterans signed for next season, the Coyotes actually still have some work to do. Each team needs to expose at least two forwards who are under contract for 2017-18 and played in at least 40 games this season of 70 the past two. McGinn, Rieder and Richardson are the only three who are signed, meaning another player will need a contract before the draft happens. Jooris is the most likely for this, as he doesn’t project as one of their current protected forwards but does fill the requirement. 
On defense the biggest loss would likely be Schenn, the former fifth-overall pick who is now on his fourth organization without ever living up to the shut-down billing he had coming out of the WHL. If the team was worried that Vegas might take him—and there is definitely a chance the team would, seeing as he is a cheap 27-year old with more than 600 games under his belt already—and they really didn’t want that, they could go with the eight skaters method and protect four defensemen, though it seems very unlikely.
In net, Smith is a near-lock to be protected after the team refused to discuss him at the deadline despite his excellent season. GM John Chayka had this to say at the time:
We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded. At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.
That does make Domingue an interesting option for Vegas, as the former fifth-round pick has turned in two solid seasons in part-time duty. While he doesn’t have the same immediate upside of Antti Raanta or Philipp Grubauer (two goaltenders who may also be exposed), Domingue is only 25 and costs just over $1MM for next season.
It’s important to note that Dave Bolland, Craig Cunningham and Chris Pronger, all of whom are technically still on the Arizona payroll are exempt from the draft due to their career-ending injuries. Pronger has in fact already been inducted to the Hall of Fame, and currently works for the Department of Player Safety. Pavel Datsyuk, whose rights were acquired at the draft last year is also on the books and has a no-movement clause, but will not need protection because of his expiring cap-hit and status as a retired player.
Vegas will have a chance to speak to the pending free agents for the Coyotes like any other team, and there is the possibility they could go after Radim Vrbata instead of any exposed player. Vrbata had a solid season in the desert, leading the Coyotes with 55 points. At 35 he’s clearly past his prime, but for a team that will severely lack scoring ability he may be an interesting option. Shane Doan is also a free agent as of this moment, but it seems unlikely that he would go to Vegas for the end of his career—if it’s not over already—after making it clear he only wanted a trade to a potential Stanley Cup contender at the deadline.
Projected Protection List
F Jamie McGinn
F Tobias Rieder
F Peter Holland
F Jordan Martinook
F Alexander Burmistrov
F Anthony Duclair
F Teemu Pulkkinen
D Alex Goligoski (NMC)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D Connor Murphy
In all, the Coyotes sit in outstanding shape going into the expansion draft without much to lose. Since all of their highly-touted assets are still too young to be eligible, they’ve actually put themselves in a situation to acquire a player or two before the draft from a team in a worse situation.
Though they aren’t likely to compete next season, they could easily add young players to their core this summer to make their team substantially better. Like the acquisition of Crouse last summer in exchange for Bolland’s contract, or the draft-finagling to move up and get Chychrun, Chayka and the Coyotes front office is headed in the right direction. It would be surprising to not see them take advantage of their protection slots and ample cap space again over the next few weeks.
While this list reflects the roster as it is today, it could clearly change as the team makes the decision on who to extend or a deal to bring someone in. As it sits, Schenn or Domingue look like the toughest losses, which won’t really inspire much excitement among Golden Knights fans.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 with one of the worst records in recent memory, winning just 22 games and seeing just a single player reach the 20-goal mark. As if their year could get any worse, they fell three spots in the draft lottery and will be required like everyone else to give up a player to the incoming Vegas Golden Knights.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Troy Bourke, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, Sven Andrighetto, Matthew Nieto, Rocco Grimaldi, Felix Girard, Mike Sislo, Turner Elson
Defensemen:
Erik Johnson (NMC), Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Mark Barberio, Eric Gelinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Nikita Zadorov
Goaltenders:
Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard
Notable Exemptions
J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, A.J. Greer, Andrei Mironov, Chris Bigras
Key Decisions
The Avalanche are in an enviable position when it comes to forwards, where many of their core pieces are still exempt due to the rebuilding nature of the club. It’s not so rosy on defence though, as both Johnson and Beauchemin hold no-movement clauses and thus require protection. Should the team be able to convince one of them—namely Beauchemin, since Johnson still at least represents some trade value—to waive their clause, they could use the 7-3-1 protection format. Otherwise they’ll likely have to go with the eight skater route or risk losing one of Zadorov or Barrie.
That would leave them with just four slots up front which isn’t ideal, but at least could protect the future and biggest trade pieces. That is assuming they don’t move Duchene or Landeskog before the draft, which would open up another spot for a younger player like Grimaldi or Andrighetto. Another option would be a buyout once the first window opens on June 15th, though Beauchemin—the most likely recipient—signed his latest contract after he turned 35 and thus the Avalanche would incur the whole $4.5MM cap hit next season regardless. 
In net there sits the team’s most important decision. Whether or not to protect Varlamov or Pickard has been much debated, with reports coming out previously that the team will keep the former. After two solid seasons backing up, Pickard struggled at times in the increased role this year when Varlamov went down to injury. That’s not to say the young goaltender doesn’t have a bright future as he recently showed, backstopping Team Canada to a silver medal in the recent World Championships. He was given player of the game honors for Canada in their 2-1 shootout loss to Team Sweden in the gold medal game, and recorded a .938 save percentage in the tournament.
From each team, Vegas is also given the opportunity to talk to pending free agents before the draft. If they should come to an agreement with one, they would forfeit their selection from his former team. The Avalanche don’t really have any UFA targets that would be of much interest, though perhaps 25-year old Brendan Ranford provides some. The Group VI free agent has only played a single game in the NHL, but has proven to be a successful AHL scorer. If for some reason the Golden Knights believe they won’t be able to sign him—or any of the Avalanche UFAs—after July 1st, they could forego their selection entirely.
Projected Protection List
F Nathan MacKinnon
F Matt Duchene
F Gabriel Landeskog
F Mikhail Grigorenko
D Erik Johnson (NMC)
D Francois Beauchemin (NMC)
D Tyson Barrie
D Nikita Zadorov
G Semyon Varlamov
While Colorado is one of the most likely teams to make a move before the deadline, this is how the protection list currently projects for them. The Avalanche could also make a deal with the Golden Knights to take a player like Soderberg off their hands, who suffered an inexplicable drop-off in effectiveness this season. With three more seasons on his current contract, his $4.75MM cap hit is certainly one the Avalanche would love to rid themselves of as they continue their rebuild.
In all, Pickard looks like the worst loss the Avalanche could incur at this point and with several weeks still before the draft they may be able to solve that issue. The Golden Knights should have their fair share of goaltenders available to them, many of which they may feel more comfortable drafting. The Avalanche will continue to look forward with their group of “untouchables” which includes MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost, each of whom are at no risk of being selected.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Without AHL Team, Blues Face Disadvantage
When the St. Louis Blues’ AHL affiliation with the Chicago Wolves was officially terminated on Wednesday in favor of partnership with Las Vegas, an important aspect of the deal was overlooked by many around the league. The St. Louis Blues will still provide players to the Wolves, but only their best players are likely to see action, as the Golden Knights hold primary ownership. Given the Knights’ situation, why play borderline prospects of an outside organization, who you are still technically competing with? They will need warm bodies for years to come, but Knights prospects will always be valued higher.
This association may not seem like a huge deal, considering that NHL teams have used AHL partnerships in years past. However, St. Louis will be the only team dealing with this handicap in the upcoming season, and it’s not a situation that will help their organization gain advantage over a tough Central division. A team hasn’t dealt with this sort of turmoil in the minors since the 2009-10 season when the Anaheim Ducks had no affiliate whatsoever. The Ducks that year? They finished 11th in the conference and missed the playoffs.
Although Vegas, without an abundance of pro-ready prospects, may appreciate this arrangement for AHL competitiveness reasons, it can only mean a step back for St. Louis. There is no tangible benefit to having your third and fourth line hopefuls lose valuable playing time to outside players. One need only look to the role players of this year’s playoff teams to realize that having a deep bench in case of injuries is always worthwhile. The Penguins for example, have Carter Rowney, Josh Archibald, and currently injured Tom Kuhnhackl performing important spot-duty. Derrick Pouliot even has an outside shot of seeing playing time this series. If any of these had played on a split-squad in the AHL, there is a strong probability they would not have the requisite experience to be inserted into NHL playoff hockey.
GM Doug Armstrong says he has a “comfort level” with Las Vegas GM George McPhee, and that eases his mind about the situation. Regardless of comfort, Blues ownership failed the team and its prospects by not securing a primary home for their players. The Blues need to have a solid farm system, which they had seemingly started to build with a dominant 1st-overall performance this past season. The likes of Jordan Schmaltz, Magnus Paajarvi, and Ivan Barbashev all benefited from a successful AHL outing. Going forward, securing a stable location for all of its players is a must for St. Louis. It’s a disadvantage from the beginning of summer until the end of the season.
Golden Knights Notes: Expansion Draft Targets, Gallant, Yakupov
The NHL purposefully designed the rules regarding the expansion draft to give the league’s newest member the best possible chance to compete right away. Teams have two options in terms of whom to protect from their current roster: they can either choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or they can go the alternate route of eight skaters and one goalie. Any player with two seasons or less of experience playing professional hockey in North America are exempt. Undoubtedly, many teams will confront some tough choices when it comes to whom they potentially lose to the Golden Knights later next month.
Rob Vollman, writing for ESPN.com, examines who among the four Stanley Cup semi-finalists Vegas GM George McPhee is most likely going to garner significant interest from the veteran hockey executive. From the reigning champion Penguins, Vollman suggests that unless the club can convince Marc-Andre Fleury to waive his NMC and subsequently trade him to another club looking for a #1 between the pipes, one of Pittsburgh’s goaltenders would be the best choice for McPhee and the Golden Knights. However, should the Penguins proactively move one of their ‘tenders – almost assuredly Fleury – prior to the expansion draft, Vollman suggests blue liner Brian Dumoulin as the best choice given his penalty killing prowess and ability to play solid defensively.
According to the scribe, Anaheim, barring some shifty maneuvering, may risk losing Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg to their new division rivals. Manson, as a right-hand defenseman who can move the puck and plays with bite, would be an excellent addition for Vegas.
Because of their defensive depth, Nashville will likely choose to protect eight skaters, with four being blue liners. This means the Golden Knights will probably have their pick from a group which includes forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Ultimately, Vollman thinks Jarnkrok would be the sensible choice given his affordable cap hit ($2MM annually through 2021-22) and his strong two-way play.
Given the lack of proven goal scorers likely to be available to McPhee in the expansion draft, Vollman wonders whether Vegas could be convinced to take the onerous contract of Bobby Ryan off of Ottawa’s hands. Ryan, who has five years – at which point the winger will be 35 – and an annual cap charge of $7.25MM, has struggled since joining Ottawa four years ago and finished with just 13 goals in 62 contests this past season. However, he has played better in the playoffs recording five markers and 14 points in 16 games. Vollman doubts McPhee would take that hefty contract on without the Senators offering them further incentive to do so but also notes the $7.25MM price tag would make it much easier to reach their targeted floor of $43.8MM in salaries. And at 30, there is hope Ryan can provide at least a few seasons of solid offensive production for a club who will likely struggle to put the puck in the net.
In other Golden Knights news:
- The Golden Knights have done well in hiring veteran coach Gerard Gallant to be the franchise’s first bench boss, at least if some of his former charges and current contemporaries are correct. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger penned an article on Gallant, who is currently an assistant with Canada’s entry in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, which included quotes from Michael Matheson and Nick Bjugstad, who each played for Gallant in Florida. Matheson, a young defenseman who rejoined Gallant on Team Canada for this tournament, said: “He’s a tremendous coach and I loved my time with him. He just gives his players a lot of confidence. He realizes that you’re going to make mistakes but that it’s not the end of the world. He’s just going to put you back onto the ice because he has confidence in you.” For his part, Bjugstad said: “He’s one of my favorite coaches ever,” and indicated he was well-liked in the room in Florida. “Everyone respected him. He had a young team with us, and it didn’t take him long to kind of push us to that next level, the next step. There’s no reason he can’t do it with the next team.” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper also offered up strong praise for Gallant: “I think it’s a great get for Las Vegas. I got to meet Gerard at the [World Cup of Hockey 2016], and that’s a big reason he’s here with us today. He’s extremely knowledgeable about the game, the guys play hard for him and I think he’ll do a [great] job in Vegas.” Gallant’s ability to help develop young players and earn the respect from his charges should do him well in his new position. While the Golden Knights will have access to quality NHL talent via the expansion draft, the organization will still likely rely on building with youth through the draft and it may be a few seasons before they are ready to compete regularly for the postseason.
- With the probable lack of proven goal scorers available to Vegas in the expansion draft, the club will likely look for other ways to add offensive talent to the organization. The Golden Knights have already inked free agent center Vadim Shipachyov, a skilled Russian who was expected to draw significant interest from several NHL clubs this summer. He may well slot in as the team’s #1 center to begin the season. But, as talented as Shipachyov might be, he is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer and Vegas will have to add more talent around their new #1 pivot. Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that former top overall draft pick Nail Yakupov is just the sort of player Vegas should take a chance on as they search for impact offensive talent. Yakupov, who suffered through the worst season of his career with St. Louis in 2016-17, scoring just nine points in 40 games, has said he has no desire to return home and play in the KHL. Fox believes the 23-year-old winger is worth a short-term, small money deal for Vegas, or for another team starved for cheap offense, perhaps L.A. Signing Yakupov would certainly make a lot of sense for Vegas. The presence of Shipachyov could help ease Yakupov’s adjustment to the desert and provide the talented winger with the type of setup man that could help him thrive.
Chicago Wolves Sign Tyler Wong To AHL Contract
- The Vegas Golden Knights have already added a player for their minor league team, as the Chicago Wolves signed WHL free agent Tyler Wong to an AHL contract today. Wong scored 51 goals and 109 points as an over-ager for Lethbridge this year, after playing three games for the Toronto Marlies on an amateur tryout last spring. The 5’9″ forward is a dynamic offensive player, who will try to carry over that scoring touch to the professional ranks.
Oilers Preparing For Expansion Draft
- One other name that is mentioned in regards to the Flames is Philipp Grubauer of the Washington Capitals, who Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press also goes in depth on. Grubauer knows that he is a target for the Vegas Golden Knights, and teammate Braden Holtby believes he’s ready to become a starter somewhere in the league. It’s not just Calgary and Vegas who will likely check in on Grubauer though after his performance this season. The 25-year old registered a .926 save percentage in 23 games and should be on the radar of several other teams—Whyno includes Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado as teams possibly looking for an upgrade this summer.