Ottawa Senators Expected To Ask Dion Phaneuf To Waive NMC
The Ottawa Senators are in a tough situation when it comes to this summer’s expansion draft. With the long list of players they have available, it looks like they’d be at risk of losing one of their good young defenders because of the no-movement clause that Dion Phaneuf holds. That is, unless he waives it before the team has to submit their protected list on June 17th.
In Don Brennan’s latest article in the Ottawa Sun, he reports that it’s very likely the team asks him to do just that. Brennan writes:
It’s widely believed the Senators will protect Cody Ceci and Marc Methot along with Erik Karlsson, and ask Dion Phaneuf to waive his no-move with the thinking Las Vegas won’t touch the latter’s hefty contract.
That would be a logical outcome, but it isn’t a guarantee that Phaneuf would agree to waive it or Vegas would pass up the veteran defender. Though he comes with a $7MM cap hit for the next four years, Phaneuf’s actual salary decreases every year (to a low of $5.5MM in 2020-21) and would be a natural option for the Golden Knights’ first captain. The fact that they will have trouble hitting the salary cap floor without some big contracts makes it a possibility.
Though Phaneuf has his detractors (and they are many), all reports out of Ottawa has him as a well-liked leader in the dressing room and important part of their blueline. He’ll likely never return to the high-flying goal scoring defenseman of his youth, but his ability to log minutes in all situations is an asset. While the Senators would be free of a big cap-hit, it’s hard to replace 23 minutes a night even if his possession numbers are poor.
Brennan also spoke to both Mark Borowiecki and Chris Wideman, who will likely be exposed in the draft. Both responded with the expected answers that they want to stay in Ottawa, but with the paring only playing ~13 minutes a night, you could relate to them if they were a little excited by the prospect of going to another team (especially one located in Las Vegas).
The two would provide both ends of the statistical spectrum for Vegas, as Wideman is turning into a possession darling capable of moving the puck up the ice quickly, while Borowiecki is a wrecking ball on skates, hitting anything that moves. If Vegas did select one of them, it would likely be a signal to the level of trust George McPhee and the new front office put on the analytical trend in hockey.
It’s a long way to the draft, but teams are obviously already making plans to protect their key players. Vegas can start making deals for anyone not currently active in the NHL on March 1st, provided owner Bill Foley makes his last payment by then.
Trade Candidates: Marc-Andre Fleury
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has spent 13 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but this one could be his last. Finally forced out of the starter’s role by newcomer Matt Murray, Fleury now mans the bench as the clear backup. The only problem is that the Penguins now have a $5.75MM backup goaltender with a NTC and NMC, and an impending expansion draft. A proven goaltender with two Stanley Cup rings—albeit one as a backup—should be a hot commodity at the trade deadline, but the ever-evolving NHL wants less and less to do with high-priced veteran goaltenders.
Contract
Fleury has two more years left at $5.75MM a year. He also has a No-Trade Clause and a No-Movement Clause.
2016-17 Season Stats
28 GP, 25 GS, 14-7-4, .906 SV%, 3.15 GAA, 0 SO
Season Overview
Fleury had a golden opportunity to silence his doubters and take the reins back in Pittsburgh. With Matt Murray out with a broken hand to start the season, Fleury was poised for his resurgence. Unfortunately the season hasn’t unfolded that way, and Fleury sits with a less-that-stellar .906 SV% and 3.15 GAA. Fleury’s issue is inconsistency rather than mediocrity. Some nights the Penguins goaltender is a brick wall and stymies opponents left and right. Other nights he performs at replacement-level and posts disappointing stats. And since the Penguins now have Murray between the pipes, Fleury gets less and less opportunities to figure it out.
Suitors
The Dallas Stars are the main suitor so far. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted on TSN’s Leaf Lunch that the Stars covet Fleury and have made preliminary inquiries. PHR’s Zach Leach covered the story in more detail here, and the fit seems like a natural one. Dallas desperately needs a goaltender after another disappointing year using the tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi. Both are putting up numbers as bad or worse then Fleury.
If the Stars trade for Fleury, expect a goaltender to go to Pittsburgh in return. Which goaltender goes the other way depends on what the Penguins add to the deal. Lehtonen has $1.5MM more of a cap hit than Niemi ($5.9MM vs $4.5MM), and both have one more year remaining after this season.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Likely. Because Fleury has a NMC, the Penguins are forced to protect him in the Expansion Draft unless he waives the clause. If the Penguins protect him, then they have to expose Matt Murray and they do not want to do that. So either Fleury waives his NMC or agrees to a trade where he can regain the starting position.
Keeping Fleury and buying him out at the end of the year represents the least efficient move by the Penguins. The Penguins would incur a $1.9MM cap hit for the next four years if they buy out Fleury. Conversely, if they trade for Lehtonen and buy him out, they incur a $2.56MM cap hit next season, and a $1.66MM cap hit the season after. If the Penguins up the ante and acquire Niemi, they incur a cap hit of $1.5MM for the next two years. The latter two buyouts represents a better deal for the Pens then dead money for four years.
The only reason the Penguins may hold onto Fleury is if they want insurance for a deep playoff run. Losing a starting goaltender significantly decreases a team’s chance at the Stanley Cup, and Pittsburgh may want Fleury as an insurance policy and accept a buyout cap hit for the next four years.
Latest On The NHL’s Battle With Concussions & CTE
The NHL is in an ongoing legal battle with former players over their treatment of concussions and the lasting damage they can cause. Back in August we looked at the list of players who had been added to a lawsuit that includes names like Gary Leeman and Bernie Nicholls. In a new report from Rick Westhead of TSN, he explains the battle that the league has been fighting for the past two years with Boston University and their research staffs. Scientists like Dr. Robert Stern, a professor of neurology at the university wrote in an affidavit filed today that a subpoena that the league filed asking for all documents, correspondence and findings will essentially shut down any ongoing CTE research.
The subpoena’s astonishing scope and breadth of coverage will, if enforced, impose an incredible burden and disrupt the CTE Center’s operations. This request will harm ALL ongoing CTE-related research, both at BU and at institutions that collaborate with BU and/or rely on BU findings as part of follow-on work.
While Dr. Stern is concerned about the NHLs take on brain injury and the possibility of CTE affecting the lives of their retired players, his colleague Dr. Ann McKee, a leader in the field of CTE research who was the first to posthumously diagnose an NHLer with the disease took a more mathematical approach. She says that even the request to remove identification from the 172,000 photos that are in the school’s brain bank (and would fall under the subpoena) would take her staff years to complete. At a generously estimated 10 minutes per photo, one person would have to spend 13 years removing the information; “In practical terms it would shut down my research” McKee wrote in her affidavit.
None of us here at PHR would claim to have enough law expertise to comment on the tactics the NHL is using, but it does seem like the league refuses to admit that there may be a chance their athletes are in trouble after playing. The NFL has softened their stance and admitted that CTE is a possible result of playing football, but in hockey that is still off the table. The league’s official stance, put forward in March of 2016 by Dr. Rudy Castellani (the NHL’s medical expert) is that CTE is “more of a hypothetical construct or concept than an actual disease”.
Trade Candidates: Brian Gionta
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
As my PHR colleague Gavin Lee noted in this piece last week, a vast majority of deadline moves won’t qualify as blockbuster deals but every team that considers themselves to be buyers will be searching for marginal upgrades to boost their chances of winning a Stanley Cup. Often times, players who qualify as marginal upgrades are third-pair defensemen or bottom-six forwards who bring additional depth to the lineup. One player who may well be past his prime but is still capable of filling a multitude of roles on a Stanley Cup contender is Brian Gionta.
While the Buffalo Sabres are far from officially eliminated from postseason contention they are seven points out of the second wild card slot and barring a big move up the standings in February the club will likely be a seller later this month. Gionta, with 12 goals and 25 points on the season, is one veteran teams searching for a quality, two-way winger will be intrigued by.
Contract
The 38-year-old Gionta is in the final season of a three-year deal with an AAV of $4.25MM. He does carry a modified NTC which required him to submit a list prior to the start of the 2016-17 season of five clubs he would accept a trade to.
2016-17 Season Stats
51 GP, 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points, -2 plus/minus rating, 20 PIM’s, 16:53 ATOI, 45.1 CF%
Season Overview
Long gone are the days when Gionta was a top-six winger capable of 25 goals a season. This season the 15-year veteran has settled into a complementary role, mostly as a third-line checking forward. He’s maintained a solid -2 plus/minus rating on a team that overall has a -19 goal differential on the season. His 12 goals and 25 points puts him on a full-season pace of 19 goals and 40 points; production which qualifies as excellent for a middle-six contributor.
Suitors
There should be no shortage of teams interested in adding Gionta, or a player like him, at the deadline. St. Louis, which just lost Robbi Fabbri for the season to an ACL injury could be a fit, in theory. Pittsburgh, who is currently without Conor Sheary for another three-to-five weeks, might have interest and are known for adding veteran pieces down the stretch for the playoff push. The Kings would appear to be in the market for scoring depth and minus the assets needed to make an impact move, could entertain trading for a Gionta.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Best guess is Buffalo would like to begin the transition of leadership away from Gionta and over to younger players such as Jack Eichel. Consequently, an extension to remain with the Sabres seems unlikely and a trade a near certainty. There should be enough interest from contending clubs to generate an offer sufficient to pry the veteran winger away from Buffalo.
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Vanek, Leafs, Julien
While the Detroit Red Wings have yet to determine whether they will be a seller at the deadline or if they will stand pat, the team is certain to be fielding calls from interested teams on veteran forward Thomas Vanek. The 33-year-old winger represents the perfect rental asset; he’s in the final year of his contract at an affordable $2.6MM and has a track record of solid offensive production. According to Bill Whitehead of Mostly Panthers Hockey, Florida is one of the clubs who should be on the phone with Red Wings GM Ken Holland to inquire on the 12-year veteran.
Vanek is in the midst of a strong rebound campaign with 12 goals and 32 points in 40 contests this season. A year ago, the Austrian winger registered 41 points in 74 games with Minnesota and was bought out of the final year of his $6MM-a-year contract by the Wild. Whitehead argues the Panthers should have made a move this past summer to add an inexpensive, third-line wing with Vanek being one of the players he would have considered for the role. Now with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov healthy, the time is now for Florida to get ahead of the potential competition to add Vanek to the lineup.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- The Toronto Maple Leafs rebuild has advanced a little more quickly than originally anticipated, buoyed in large part by outstanding production from a group of rookies including last June’s top overall draft choice Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, among others. However, as Rob Longley of the National Post writes, defensive lapses continue to haunt the Maple Leafs. Toronto blew a two-goal lead last night against the Islanders, dropping a decision in OT, and had a three-goal advantage wiped away in Boston over the weekend. Overall the team has allowed 22 total goals in their last four games and could perhaps use a veteran boost on the blue line and/or a checking forward to add a defensive conscience to a talented young forward group. The Maple Leafs likely won’t want to part with much in the way of prospects or draft picks unless they can acquire a young defenseman under team control. However, they could peruse the rental market in search of a quick fix for their defensive woes.
- The firing of Claude Julien is the day’s top story and while the move is being met with sharp criticism directed at Bruins managment, the coach should have no trouble landing on his feet, writes Kevin Allen of USA Today. Allen likens Julien’s position to that of Lindy Ruff and Barry Trotz after they were jettisoned by Buffalo and Nashville, respectively, after leading those programs for many years. Ruff ended up with Dallas, winning a Central Division title last season while Trotz is now the bench boss of the Washington Capitals, one of the league’s best teams the last couple of seasons. In the scribe’s opinion, Julien immediately jumps to the front of the line of unemployed head coaches and may well have his choice of coaching jobs.
Barry Trotz Thinks Alexander Radulov Will Re-Sign In Montreal
After signing for a relatively modest one-year contract this summer with the Montreal Canadiens, Alexander Radulov has returned to the NHL with a vengeance. The former Nashville Predators forward came back from the KHL for $5.75MM, and has performed exceptionally well. 41 points in 52 games and the question has now become where will he sign this summer when he becomes an unrestricted free agent once again.
While Pierre McGuire was speaking to Mitch Gallo on TSN 690 in Montreal, he related a conversation he had with Washington Capitals head coach Barry Trotz. “I would be shocked if Radulov doesn’t sign with Montreal, he loves it there” said Trotz, making it clear he things the Russian playmaker will stay long-term in the French-Canadian city. Trotz likely has a bit of inside information on Radulov, as the two spent parts of three seasons together in Nashville after Trotz and the Predators drafted him 15th overall in 2004.
For Montreal, signing Radulov would be a big boost to their offensive production going into next season. With Tomas Plekanec slowing down considerably, and David Deharnais looking like a shadow of his former 50-point self, the Habs have serious question marks up front for next season. Radulov has looked like the elite player many believed he was during the short time he was in the NHL, skating mostly beside Max Pacioretty and Phillip Danault – though when Alex Galchenyuk is healthy, he is an obvious fit for the top line.
We ranked Radulov second among our mid-season free agents, stating that he had already done enough to warrant a long-term deal with someone. Be advised Montreal fans, that just because Trotz knows he loves it there, doesn’t mean he will definitely re-sign. If we’ve come to learn anything about professional athletes (and really anyone in general) it’s that money dictates where they go. If the Canadiens don’t offer Radulov the best (or close to the best) offer, he’ll be taking his talents somewhere else. The KHL is always an option, though it seems as though he’s made a decision to come and try to win in North America for the time being.
Minor Transactions: 2/1/2017
Here’s where we will track the day’s less significant roster transactions:
- The Columbus Blue Jackets reassigned defenseman Dean Kukan to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL, according to The Columbus Dispatch’s Aaron Portzline (via Twitter). The 23-year-old blue liner was recalled Sunday but did not appear in the Jackets wild 6 – 4 win over the New York Rangers last night. He appeared in eight games last season, his first in the NHL, but failed to register a point. The Swiss-born Kukan signed a deal with Columbus prior to the 2015-16 season after a lengthy pro career playing in his home country. In 37 games this year with Cleveland, Kukan has 13 points.
- Joe Haggerty of CSNNE has relayed that Zane McIntyre has been recalled by the Boston Bruins to replace Anton Khudobin as the team’s backup netminder. The Bruins are desperate for quality play in goal behind starter Tuukka Rask. McIntyre and Khudobin have combined to post a woeful record of 1 – 8 – 2 in 15 appearances with a GAA of 3.42 and a S% of 0.875. Boston has just two back-to-backs scheduled this month, suggesting they won’t have to rely on their backup much, provided Rask remains healthy.
- Defenseman Dylan McIlrath and forward Paul Thompson, each of whom was placed on waivers by Florida yesterday, went unclaimed and will remain in the Florida Panthers organization, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. George Richards, who covers the Panthers for the Miami Herald, later added that McIlrath was reassigned to Springfield, along with forward Jared McCann. McIlrath, acquired earlier this season from the New York Rangers, has seen action in just five games for Florida this season. The former first-round draft pick has had trouble earning regular playing time. Thompson, 28, has played in 21 games for the Panthers, registering three assists while averaging less than eight minutes per game.
- The Washington Capitals returned blue liner Christian Djoos to Hershey of the AHL, reports Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic. Djoos was Washington’s seventh-round selection in the 2012 entry draft and has yet to debut in the NHL. He’s in the midst of a solid season for Hershey, tallying 26 points in 35 AHL contests.
Trade Candidate: Jimmy Howard
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
Another trade candidate, another Red Wing. This time, we’ll look at veteran netminder Jimmy Howard, who has been the subject of trade rumors since last summer.
Contract
Six-year, $31.750MM deal. Three years remaining. $5.291MM AAV.
2016-17
In a season where the Red Wings have struggled tremendously, Howard has been the antidote to a team hemorrhaging goals. While Petr Mrazek was expected to be the stalwart in net, it’s been Howard and rookie Jared Coreau picking up the slack for Detroit. Howard, however, has succumbed to injury twice this season, but is close to coming back. The real question is which Howard will return? The dominant one? Or the Howard of seasons past, who has struggled to find his groove following injury?
Season Stats
GP: 17 (15 started): 5-7-1; .934 sv%; 1.96 GAA; .667 QS%
Potential Suitors
When healthy, Howard has been extremely good for the Red Wings. This season alone, on a team that is dreadful at both ends of the ice, Howard has stolen games while keeping the Wings in games they should have been out of early.
Dallas is one team to look at, especially since former Detroit assistant general manager Jim Nill is there. Though the Stars are trying to figure out what they are, Howard could be an asset with two years remaining and numbers that are certainly better than that of what the Stars currenly have in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. But outside of familiarity, there are few teams on the radar.
While Howard could fetch offers, there is one key reason he will scare off potential buyers.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Howard’s contract is a hinderance to any team interested. Still locked in for two seasons with over $10MM owed, few teams are going to bite on a deal that involves a strong performing, but injury prone goalie. While Howard’s name has been mentioned before, the Wings couldn’t peddle him elsewhere last summer. There are also rumblings that Detroit could be growing impatient with Mrazek, and may dangle Mrazek as trade bait. But that could be speculation in a season that has been disastrous for a franchise not used to losing as often–and as badly–as they have been.
Submit Your Questions For The Pro Hockey Rumors Mailbag
Do you have a question regarding trades with the deadline fast approaching, the salary cap, the draft, or the top storylines around the hockey world? Send us your questions for the next PHR Mailbag. You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.
Be sure to check back on Thursday when our mailbag is posted.
If you’d like to read our last mailbag column, you can do so here.
5 Key Stories: 1/23/17 – 1/29/17
Congratulations to the members of the Metro Division All-Star team, who capped off an entertaining three-on-three tournament by defeating the Pacific Division 4 – 3. It’s time for PHR’s weekly roundup of the five key stories from the week of 1/23/17 through 1/29/17.
Colorado center Matt Duchene, the subject of trade rumors for much of the season, expressed a willingness to being dealt to another club in comments made to The Denver Post this week. The talented pivot has two years remaining on a contract that comes with an AAV of $6MM and is sure to attract plenty of trade interest. The team is reportedly hoping to land at least a young, top-four defenseman and a high draft pick in return.
The Ottawa Senators added some bottom-six depth by acquiring veteran winger Tommy Wingels from the San Jose Sharks for minor leaguers Zack Stortini and Buddy Robinson along with a seventh-round draft pick. Still just 28, Wingels could prove to be a solid pickup for the Senators. During the 2012-13 and 2013-14 campaigns, the seven-year veteran combined for 31 goals and that’s the kind of production the Senators are hoping for. From the Sharks perspective, the trade cleared needed cap space with Tomas Hertl poised to come off of IR.
Looking for additional defensive depth, the Montreal Canadiens picked up Nikita Nesterov from Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league prospect Jonathan Racine and a sixth-round draft choice. Nesterov has tallied 12 points in 35 games this season and could provide solid value for the Habs as a long-term fit on their blue line. He carries a cap hit of $725K and will be a RFA this summer.
As he draws nearer unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2018, New York Islanders franchise center John Tavares indicated he is open to inking a long-term extension to remain on Long Island despite the team’s struggles this season. It’s not a surprising position for the #1 overall selection in the 2009 draft to take. There’s no point in limiting any option this far from free agency and a lot can change between now and July 1, 2018. Any way you look at it, Tavares is going to land a lucrative long-term deal, whether it’s with the Islanders or another franchise.
Semyon Varlamov, Colorado’s starting goaltender, will miss the rest of the season following surgery to repair a groin injury. Like many of his teammates, the 2016-17 campaign has not been a good one for the Russian netminder and now his season is going to be cut short. Varlamov will have two years remaining on a deal that comes with a $5.9MM cap hit and it will be interesting to see what the Avalanche, already rumored to be considering significant roster changes, do with their goaltending situation.