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The Ottawa Senators are in a tough situation when it comes to this summer’s expansion draft. With the long list of players they have available, it looks like they’d be at risk of losing one of their good young defenders because of the no-movement clause that Dion Phaneuf holds. That is, unless he waives it before the team has to submit their protected list on June 17th.

In Don Brennan’s latest article in the Ottawa Sun, he reports that it’s very likely the team asks him to do just that. Brennan writes:

It’s widely believed the Senators will protect Cody Ceci and Marc Methot along with Erik Karlsson, and ask Dion Phaneuf to waive his no-move with the thinking Las Vegas won’t touch the latter’s hefty contract.

That would be a logical outcome, but it isn’t a guarantee that Phaneuf would agree to waive it or Vegas would pass up the veteran defender. Though he comes with a $7MM cap hit for the next four years, Phaneuf’s actual salary decreases every year (to a low of $5.5MM in 2020-21) and would be a natural option for the Golden Knights’ first captain. The fact that they will have trouble hitting the salary cap floor without some big contracts makes it a possibility.

Though Phaneuf has his detractors (and they are many), all reports out of Ottawa has him as a well-liked leader in the dressing room and important part of their blueline. He’ll likely never return to the high-flying goal scoring defenseman of his youth, but his ability to log minutes in all situations is an asset. While the Senators would be free of a big cap-hit, it’s hard to replace 23 minutes a night even if his possession numbers are poor.

Brennan also spoke to both Mark Borowiecki and Chris Wideman, who will likely be exposed in the draft. Both responded with the expected answers that they want to stay in Ottawa, but with the paring only playing ~13 minutes a night, you could relate to them if they were a little excited by the prospect of going to another team (especially one located in Las Vegas).

The two would provide both ends of the statistical spectrum for Vegas, as Wideman is turning into a possession darling capable of moving the puck up the ice quickly, while Borowiecki is a wrecking ball on skates, hitting anything that moves. If Vegas did select one of them, it would likely be a signal to the level of trust George McPhee and the new front office put on the analytical trend in hockey.

It’s a long way to the draft, but teams are obviously already making plans to protect their key players. Vegas can start making deals for anyone not currently active in the NHL on March 1st, provided owner Bill Foley makes his last payment by then.

The NHL is in an ongoing legal battle with former players over their treatment of concussions and the lasting damage they can cause. Back in August we looked at the list of players who had been added to a lawsuit that includes names like Gary Leeman and Bernie Nicholls. In a new report from Rick Westhead of TSN, he explains the battle that the league has been fighting for the past two years with Boston University and their research staffs. Scientists like Dr. Robert Stern, a professor of neurology at the university wrote in an affidavit filed today that a subpoena that the league filed asking for all documents, correspondence and findings will essentially shut down any ongoing CTE research.

The subpoena’s astonishing scope and breadth of coverage will, if enforced, impose an incredible burden and disrupt the CTE Center’s operations. This request will harm ALL ongoing CTE-related research, both at BU and at institutions that collaborate with BU and/or rely on BU findings as part of follow-on work.

While Dr. Stern is concerned about the NHLs take on brain injury and the possibility of CTE affecting the lives of their retired players, his colleague Dr. Ann McKee, a leader in the field of CTE research who was the first to posthumously diagnose an NHLer with the disease took a more mathematical approach. She says that even the request to remove identification from the 172,000 photos that are in the school’s brain bank (and would fall under the subpoena) would take her staff years to complete. At a generously estimated 10 minutes per photo, one person would have to spend 13 years removing the information; “In practical terms it would shut down my research” McKee wrote in her affidavit.

None of us here at PHR would claim to have enough law expertise to comment on the tactics the NHL is using, but it does seem like the league refuses to admit that there may be a chance their athletes are in trouble after playing. The NFL has softened their stance and admitted that CTE is a possible result of playing football, but in hockey that is still off the table. The league’s official stance, put forward in March of 2016 by Dr. Rudy Castellani (the NHL’s medical expert) is that CTE is “more of a hypothetical construct or concept than an actual disease”.

With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

As my PHR colleague Gavin Lee noted in this piece last week, a vast majority of deadline moves won’t qualify as blockbuster deals but every team that considers themselves to be buyers will be searching for marginal upgrades to boost their chances of winning a Stanley Cup. Often times, players who qualify as marginal upgrades are third-pair defensemen or bottom-six forwards who bring additional depth to the lineup. One player who may well be past his prime but is still capable of filling a multitude of roles on a Stanley Cup contender is Brian Gionta.

While the Buffalo Sabres are far from officially eliminated from postseason contention they are seven points out of the second wild card slot and barring a big move up the standings in February the club will likely be a seller later this month. Gionta, with 12 goals and 25 points on the season, is one veteran teams searching for a quality, two-way winger will be intrigued by.

Contract

The 38-year-old Gionta is in the final season of a three-year deal with an AAV of $4.25MM. He does carry a modified NTC which required him to submit a list prior to the start of the 2016-17 season of five clubs he would accept a trade to.

2016-17 Season Stats

51 GP, 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points, -2 plus/minus rating, 20 PIM’s, 16:53 ATOI, 45.1 CF%

Season Overview

Long gone are the days when Gionta was a top-six winger capable of 25 goals a season. This season the 15-year veteran has settled into a complementary role, mostly as a third-line checking forward. He’s maintained a solid -2 plus/minus rating on a team that overall has a -19 goal differential on the season. His 12 goals and 25 points puts him on a full-season pace of 19 goals and 40 points; production which qualifies as excellent for a middle-six contributor.

Suitors

There should be no shortage of teams interested in adding Gionta, or a player like him, at the deadline. St. Louis, which just lost Robbi Fabbri for the season to an ACL injury could be a fit, in theory. Pittsburgh, who is currently without Conor Sheary for another three-to-five weeks, might have interest and are known for adding veteran pieces down the stretch for the playoff push. The Kings would appear to be in the market for scoring depth and minus the assets needed to make an impact move, could entertain trading for a Gionta.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Best guess is Buffalo would like to begin the transition of leadership away from Gionta and over to younger players such as Jack Eichel. Consequently, an extension to remain with the Sabres seems unlikely and a trade a near certainty. There should be enough interest from contending clubs to generate an offer sufficient to pry the veteran winger away from Buffalo.

While the Detroit Red Wings have yet to determine whether they will be a seller at the deadline or if they will stand pat, the team is certain to be fielding calls from interested teams on veteran forward Thomas Vanek. The 33-year-old winger represents the perfect rental asset; he’s in the final year of his contract at an affordable $2.6MM and has a track record of solid offensive production. According to Bill Whitehead of Mostly Panthers Hockey, Florida is one of the clubs who should be on the phone with Red Wings GM Ken Holland to inquire on the 12-year veteran.

Vanek is in the midst of a strong rebound campaign with 12 goals and 32 points in 40 contests this season. A year ago, the Austrian winger registered 41 points in 74 games with Minnesota and was bought out of the final year of his $6MM-a-year contract by the Wild. Whitehead argues the Panthers should have made a move this past summer to add an inexpensive, third-line wing with Vanek being one of the players he would have considered for the role. Now with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov healthy, the time is now for Florida to get ahead of the potential competition to add Vanek to the lineup.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

• The Toronto Maple Leafs rebuild has advanced a little more quickly than originally anticipated, buoyed in large part by outstanding production from a group of rookies including last June’s top overall draft choice Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, among others. However, as Rob Longley of the National Post writes, defensive lapses continue to haunt the Maple Leafs. Toronto blew a two-goal lead last night against the Islanders, dropping a decision in OT, and had a three-goal advantage wiped away in Boston over the weekend. Overall the team has allowed 22 total goals in their last four games and could perhaps use a veteran boost on the blue line and/or a checking forward to add a defensive conscience to a talented young forward group. The Maple Leafs likely won’t want to part with much in the way of prospects or draft picks unless they can acquire a young defenseman under team control. However, they could peruse the rental market in search of a quick fix for their defensive woes.
• The firing of Claude Julien is the day’s top story and while the move is being met with sharp criticism directed at Bruins managment, the coach should have no trouble landing on his feet, writes Kevin Allen of USA Today. Allen likens Julien’s position to that of Lindy Ruff and Barry Trotz after they were jettisoned by Buffalo and Nashville, respectively, after leading those programs for many years. Ruff ended up with Dallas, winning a Central Division title last season while Trotz is now the bench boss of the Washington Capitals, one of the league’s best teams the last couple of seasons. In the scribe’s opinion, Julien immediately jumps to the front of the line of unemployed head coaches and may well have his choice of coaching jobs.

Do you have a question regarding trades with the deadline fast approaching, the salary cap, the draft, or the top storylines around the hockey world?  Send us your questions for the next PHR Mailbag.  You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back on Thursday when our mailbag is posted.

If you’d like to read our last mailbag column, you can do so here.