Campbell: Is Tyler Johnson's Deal A Good One?
It’s no secret that Johnson has struggled to stay healthy. His numbers have fallen steadily since his career year in 2014-15 where he put up 72 points. His playoff numbers in consecutive seasons were also impressive, and most likely what secured him the contract. Campbell also believes that Johnson is dependent upon his linemates, and in spite of averaging 53 points in his first four seasons, there’s a lot riding on it for him, and the Lightning.
Islanders Sign Goalie Kristers Gudlevskis
A move that fell way under the radar during the July 1st free agent frenzy was the New York Islanders acquisition of young goaltender Kristers Gudlevskis from the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Isles traded a young player of their own, forward Carter Verhaeghe, to secure the restricted free agent rights to the Latvian keeper. Now, New York has taken the next step toward bringing Gudlevskis in, by coming to terms on a new contract. The team announced a one-year, two-way deal with their new goalie, which is expected to be worth the $650K minimum at the NHL level.
While Gudlevskis has NHL upside, the contract does make sense for both sides. The Islanders still have both Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak under contract for next season and the last thing they want is to have to juggle three goalie like they did in the past with J-F Berube. Gudlevskis is still only 24 as well, and they want him facing shots regularly with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers, where he will likely get the majority of starts over Christopher Gibson, Stephon Williams, or Eamon McAdam.
However, Gudlevskis could have a much greater role than AHL depth as soon as this season. The Islanders have not been shy about the fact that Halak is available in a trade and, should another team lose their starter and be on the lookout for a stopgap, Halak would be a popular choice. This could vault Gudlevskis into the backup role in 2017-18. Even if that doesn’t happen, Halak is in the final year of his deal and will almost surely walk in free agency. Unless the Isles are unhappy with Greiss and are looking to replace him as starter or bring in a “1B”-type backup, Gudlevskis could move into the backup role next year. No one knows exactly when top goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin will cross the Atlantic, so Gudlevskis could be in line for a long-term NHL job. In his three NHL regular season appearances, the young keeper has been phenomenal, posting a .959 save percentage and 1.37 GAA. It’s a small sample size, but Islanders fans hope to see more of the same when Gudlevskis is called upon in the near future.
Lightning Re-Sign Tyler Johnson To A 7-Year Deal
The Tampa Bay Lightning and forward Tyler Johnson have agreed to a seven-year/$35MM deal. The cap hit is $5MM. Johnson had 45 points last season, 19 of those points being goals. It’s a $1.7MM AAV increase from the $3.3MM he was previously making. Johnson saw his increase thanks to his scoring prowess and clutch playoff performance.
Johnson emerged as a scoring threat during the 2014-15 playoffs when he lit up the Detroit Red Wings for six goals in the first round while finishing with 24 points (13-11) in 26 playoff games. His Conn Smythe caliber numbers turned a number of heads and made Johnson a bonafide star in Tampa. The following season, Johnson again had a dominant performance, being a point-per-game contributor in 17 playoff games.
Regular season success was strong for the 26-year-old forward who had 50 points (24-26) in his first full season during the 2013-14 year. A season later, Johnson had his career high of 72 points (29-43) and continued his torrid performance into the playoffs. Injuries since have limited his performance, and he dipped to 38 points (14-24) in 2015-16.
With the signing, the Lightning have approximately $8.88MM remaining via CapFriendly. This allows general manager Steve Yzerman to turn his attention to Ondrej Palat, who according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, is hoping to lock him up prior to an arbitration hearing. Smith quoted Johnson as saying he was “super excited” about the contract extension.
RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration
As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.
Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.
Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues
This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.
Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning
Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.
Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators
This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.
Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild
Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Jake Dotchin
As expected, the Tampa Bay Lightning have signed Jake Dotchin to a two-year contract worth $1.625MM. The average salary of just over $812K is a bargain for a player expected to play a big role for the Lightning this year.
Dotchin made quite an impact in 2016-17, coming up from the Syracuse Crunch to play 35 games for the Lightning in the second half of the season. Recording 11 points in that time, he climbed up the lineup and even played with Victor Hedman at times. While he can cross the line at times—Dotchin is well-known in Toronto circles as the player who injured Kasperi Kapanen, kneed Auston Matthews and received a suspension for injuring Frederik Gauthier in the AHL playoffs—he is also a very effective two-way defender that should be a big part of the Lightning blueline for a long time.
The best part for Tampa Bay might be Dotchin’s handedness, as Hedman and youngsters Slater Koekkoek and Mikhail Sergachev are all left-handed. Dotchin will join Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi on the right side full-time this season.
Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times was first to report the signing was close yesterday.
Tampa Bay Lightning Signs Matthew Peca
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed Matthew Peca to a one-year, two-way contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Peca made his NHL debut last season and spent ten games with the Lightning, scoring two points. The undersized forward had another big season with the Syracuse Crunch, and should be expected to spend the majority of 2017-18 in the AHL once again.
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Slater Koekkoek
The Tampa Bay Lightning have made clear additions to their blueline this summer, but still had a couple of restricted free agents to deal with in Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotching. The former has now signed a one-year one-way deal that will pay him $800K next season. Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times says that a deal for Dotchin won’t be far behind.
Koekkoek will forever be judged, perhaps unfairly, by the players selected around him in the 2012 draft. Picked 10th overall, just behind Jacob Trouba and ahead of Filip Forsberg, Koekkoek has yet to live up to his pedigree and has just 41 NHL games under his belt. That’s not to say he can’t turn things around, but at 23 he’s starting to run out of time to make an impact on the Lightning. With Mikhail Sergachev easily jumping over him on the prospect depth chart, he’ll have to work even harder for an NHL role this season.
He did play 29 games for the Lightning last season, a bump from previous years, but still only averaged 13 minutes a night and had little chance to contribute offensively. Expected to have a solid two-way game, he’ll have to show improvement in order to lock down the vacant third-pairing spot on Tampa next season. After moving out Jason Garrison and bringing in Dan Girardi, the team could use Koekkoek or perhaps Andrej Sustr on his off side for the last LHD spot. Dotchin is expected to retake his spot in the top four and be relied upon as a key contributor this season. Sergachev too has a chance to make the team out of camp, making it even tougher on Koekkoek going forward. A one-way deal is nice, but he still has to prove that he can play full-time in the NHL.
Girardi Signing May Delay Tampa Bay’s Blueline Prospects
There are many worried Tampa Bay Lightning fans that the recent signing of veteran defender Dan Girardi, to a two-year, $6MM contract, will only get in the way of the team’s blueline youth movement. Once considered a major weakness on their team, the Lightning have rebuilt the defense over the last few years. They have even protected several of those young defensemen like Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotchin by giving up a top offensive prospect in Nikita Gusev and several draft picks to Vegas to convince them to take veteran defender Jason Garrison off their hands, not only to free up cap space, but also to open up more playing time on the blueline.
The team also has a new core of young defensive prospects in the pipeline as well, including newly acquired Mikhail Sergachev, who they received from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin. They have focused their drafts on defense as well. They drafted the WHL’s Cal Foote with the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft. Before that, they spent a slew of second-rounders on defense, drafting Libor Hajek with their second round pick last year, Matt Spencer in the second round in 2015 as well, and Dominik Masin in the second round in 2014. They even added 2015 second-rounder Erik Cernak when they sent Ben Bishop to Los Angeles in February. The team even inked their sixth-round pick from 2016 yesterday in Oleg Susanov, at 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds at age 19.
With all this talent though, the Lightning still invested $3MM per year to Girardi, which means the team isn’t likely to have the veteran mentor the youth. It’s more likely that the team is doing everything it can to bolster its roster for a playoff run and will force players like Koekkoek, Dotchin, and Sergachev to battle it out for a roster spot or be sent back to the AHL. Koekkoek, a former tenth-overall pick in 2012, only managed to get into 29 games last year, playing the majority of the season with the Syracuse Crunch. Dotchin split his time evenly between the two, having played 35 games for each squad.
Sergachev might be ready for Tampa Bay soon as well, but a Girardi deal could benefit the team as well. The former ninth-overall pick in 2016 had conditions linked to his trade with the Canadiens that would allow the Lightning to acquire a 2018 second-round pick if Sergachev doesn’t play more than 40 games for the NHL squad during the regular season and the playoffs. Otherwise, Tampa Bay would get no extra pick. Perhaps that may be an extra incentive to keep him in the minors for a little while longer.
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Chris Kunitz
Four-time Stanley Cup champion Chris Kunitz is off to Tampa Bay, where he has signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Lightning. The deal also includes $1MM in performance bonuses according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN, based on ice time, games played and the team making the playoffs.
Kunitz is coming off a strong playoff performance for Pittsburgh. Most notably, he scored the double-overtime winner in Game 7 against Ottawa which propelled the team into the Finals. He’s always been a solid possession player – never posting a Corsit For below 51% since the stat was tracked in 2007-08. His productivity on the wings of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin placed him in the upper echelon of wingers in the league. Last season, the 37-year-old saw his first major decline in goal production during the regular season. He dropped to 9 tallies from the previous season’s 17, and noticeably looked a step slower. He became an expendable piece who moved up and down the lineup with the emergence of forwards Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel.
Still able to provide leadership and a physical element, Kunitz will hope to prove that he belongs on a Tampa Bay team that is thin on the left wing. Tampa will look to lean upon his intangibles to catapult them back into playoff contention after a rough 2016-17 season. If he can regain some of his previous production, the deal will look all the better. His previously noted flexibility will come in handy in the case of injuries, and he has shown his ability to play effectively along top talent. It’s difficult to imagine him looking out of place slotting alongside Steven Stamkos or Tyler Johnson in a pinch. The biggest risk of course is with regards to his age, and whether he will continue to be as unproductive offensively as he was in the latter half of the season in Pittsburgh.
New York Islanders Acquire Kristers Gudlevskis
The New York Islanders have added some more goaltending depth, acquiring Kristers Gudlevskis from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for minor league forward Carter Verhaeghe.
Gudlevskis was a fifth-round pick by the Lightning in 2013, and has made three appearances at the NHL level, actually recording a .959 save percentage in those games. He’s not really a prospect anymore, but should at least add some professional depth for the Islanders.
Verhaeghe on the other hand was a third-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs, but dealt along with several other prospects for Michael Grabner a few seasons ago. He’s never lived up to the billing of an offensive force with defensive chops, bouncing back and forth between the AHL and ECHL. He’s still only 21, which means he could still breakout and develop into the player the Maple Leafs had hoped for, but right now the NHL seems like a long shot.