Trade Candidates: Nick Holden
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The New York Rangers are selling. That much is well-established. While the main focus of the media is on big names like Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello, the reality is the only deals that are more likely than not include the team’s impending unrestricted free agents. One such player, and the only Rangers defenseman that fits that description, is Nick Holden. While Holden is not the swift, puck-moving defenseman emphasized by today’s NHL, he still holds value in many facets of the game. In fact, it’s fair to say that Holden has been routinely under-rated throughout his career (at least Patrick Roy thought so). New York knows this too, after acquiring him from Colorado for just a fourth-round pick back in the 2016 off-season only to watch him play a key role on the blue line the past two seasons. Now that they’re on the other side of the table looking to trade him away, they’ll try not to make the same mistake. However, with a “fire sale” potentially about to begin for the Rangers, Holden seems destined to be shipped out for the best offer.
Contract
Holden is in the final season of a three-year, 4.95MM contract extension signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2014. His cap hit in 2017-18 is $1.65MM, but will count for under $500K at the deadline.
2017-18
Nothing that Holden does on the ice jumps out, though for a defenseman, that can be a good thing. In no way does Holden play a flashy, offensive possession game and his numbers this season prove that. He has just a few goals and a handful of assists on the year, below average Corsi numbers, and almost no role on the power play. Perhaps the most telling detail of his playing style is that the casual hockey fan likely has never heard of him, as his play rarely garners attention. Why then is he playing top-four minutes for the Rangers this year and playing top-pair minutes last year? Holden simply has a solid, no-nonsense game. He plays a safe, dependable style in his own end and can thus be relied on for major minutes without risking a breakdown on defense. Holden is also a physical, but clean player. He has led the Rangers in hits in back-to-back seasons, but does so while taking few detrimental penalties. When given the chance, Holden also has quite the shot and led all Blueshirt blue liners in goal-scoring in 2016-17. It’s easy to say that Holden has taken a step back this season. His offensive totals are way off his pace set last year and his plus/minus and ice time are down as a result. However, as for the hallmarks of his game, Holden is playing just as physical, is blocking more shots, and has improved greatly in turnovers, with fewer giveaways and more takeaways. Holden’s 2017-18 season would give no team any reason to think that he is a game-changer or the answer to all of their problems, but could he be a reliable asset to a contender? Absolutely.
Season Stats
51 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, +4 rating, 12 PIM, 48 shots, 19:00 ATOI, 45.0 CF%
Potential Suitors
Holden fits the bill of a player who gets traded every deadline season – a responsible depth defenseman who can play reliable hockey when called upon. Every season contenders seems to add a player like this simply out of convenience rather than necessity. Holden is not the type of player who will radically change the fortunes of a contender, but – especially at that cap hit – he is one worth the asset investment as he can provide reliable defense if necessary. Look for the top teams in the league to take a look at Holden in the next two weeks. The Atlantic trio of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs could all use depth on the blue line and while at times they have all been connected to bigger targets, surely one or more will decide to settle for a lesser addition. In the Metro, the Washington Capitals could really use some defensive depth and experience and the New Jersey Devils could particularly use a more safe, reliable defender given their current goal-tending crisis. In the Pacific, the Los Angeles Kings would make a nice fit, so long as their playoff position is a little firmer by the deadline.
However, the best fit for Holden seems to be the Central’s Dallas Stars. The Stars have little cap space to work with and have admitted that they won’t be major buyers, but the affordable contract of Holden paired with the responsible, hard-nosed game that head coach Ken Hitchcock appreciates makes for a nice match. Dallas is in good position to at least clinch a wild card spot this season and perhaps play spoiler in the postseason, but regardless of the status of Marc Methot, the team is known to be looking for a defenseman and Holden fits the bill for the type of guy they want and can afford to acquire.
Likelihood of a Trade
If the Rangers are serious about their fire sale, then a Holden trade is nearly a certainty. There has been no word on any extension talks, meaning Holden’s days in New York are numbered; no point in keeping him around just to fade away into free agency at the end of the season. The Rangers got Holden for a fourth-rounder in the off-season two years ago and now, two solid campaigns later and at deadline prices, they should be able to get at least that back. If the fire sale is on, they should take what they can get and move on.
Eastern Notes: Hurricanes, Nash, McDonagh, Van Riemsdyk
The Carolina Hurricanes are by no means out of the playoff hunt. Afterall, they have won two in a row and currently are clinging to the second and final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. However, the team might end up being sellers at the trade deadline as the young team have quite a few trade chips that could help this team down the road, according to The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required).
The scribe writes that the Hurricanes have quite a bit of depth on the blueline and it should get deeper soon. The team already has captain Justin Faulk leading the defense and although he’s not having as good of a campaign as a year ago, he might make for a good trade chip especially as the defensive salary cap will rise for the team next season. Carolina already have Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce under contract and both their extensions will kick in next year at a combined $9.325MM. Defenseman Noah Hanifin will be a restricted free agent next year and should get a solid raise. The team has rookie Haydn Fleury back next year and likely will have 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean coming in. This might be the right time to make a move for a scoring forward.
Duhatschek also notes that the team, who recently waived Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris, could also look to move another pair of veterans at the deadline including Derek Ryan and Lee Stempniak. Ryan is an excellent face-off specialist and would make a solid bottom-six center and is an excellent story, while Stempniak, is starting to find his groove after missing much of the season. Ryan has 11 goals and 26 points this season, while Stempniak has played in just 14 games, but has one goal and five assists so far.
- The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that New York Rangers winger Rick Nash has set his 12-team trade approved list and the veteran revealed that he chose teams based on their chances to win the Stanley Cup this season. “I included the teams that I think have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup and are also places I think would be good for my family,” the 33-year-old father of two young children said. “And, yes, that does include teams in Canada. I’m not excluding that as a possibility.” Nash says he would consider changing the list if a certain team not on the list shows interest in him. Brooks adds that several teams have shown interest including the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Lightning and possibly the Toronto Maple Leafs.
- Brooks also notes that the Tampa Bay Lightning have quite a bit of interest in adding defenseman Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline. They believe that with Victor Hedman and McDonagh at the blueline, the chances Tampa Bay could win a Stanley Cup would increase heavily. However, the scribe notes that the Rangers should demand 19-year-old defensive rookie Mikhail Sergachev as the asking price for the veteran defenseman.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have gotten some interest in veteran forward James van Riemsdyk recently, Sportsnet’s Mike Johnston said during Saturday’s Headlines’ segment on Hockey Night in Canada. Johnston said two teams were told they have no plans to trade van Riemsdyk before the deadline. The 28-year-old goal scorer, who has 22 goals so far this year, will be an unrestricted free agent this year, but according to Johnston, has not received any contract extension offers yet. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos added on the segment that the main reason is because van Riemsdyk refuses to take a hometown discount.
Lightning Retire Lecavalier's #4
St. James asked a follow-up question, wondering if the 2004 Selke Trophy winner would admit he was pulling for competitive, one-goal losses, but he wouldn’t bite. Draper works directly for Ken Holland, and he’s certainly a name to watch should Detroit and Holland part ways. Draper scouts both amateur and pro talent and is involved with team strategy according to the team’s site. But his greatest asset is his connection to the past, as the Red Wings have been very loyal to those who have worn the Winged Wheel. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Detroit go to a trusted name if Holland steps away–whether it’s Draper or assistant general manager Ryan Martin. The vast majority of Detroit fans are clamoring for the return of Yzerman–considered one of the best managers in the league and who was blocked by Holland when offered a chance to be the GM. His return seems unlikely, as Yzerman built the Lightning into a powerhouse. If Yzerman returned, he would have to endure an arduous rebuild in Hockeytown, saddled down by many unmovable contracts.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning former captain Vincent Lecavalier‘s #4 tonight, Lecavalier was the team’s #1 overall choice in the 1998 NHL draft and played fourteen seasons with the Bolts before being bought out after the 2012-13 season. Lecavalier is still the franchise’s all-time goals leader (383) and still holds the record for most points in a single season (108) back in 2007-08. Lecavalier’s number joins Martin St. Louis‘ #26 in the Amalie Arena rafters.
Snapshots: Blues, Thornton, Lewis, Lightning
In a mailbag column, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford writes (subscription required) that while the Blues have been linked with a number of high-profile teams such as the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers, it’s unlikely the team will make a big move for a big name forward with years on his contract like a Max Pacioretty or a Mike Hoffman despite recent rumors to the contrary.
Due to the high trade demands being made for these players, Rutherford believes that trading a top prospect for a player who has a large contract to fit into their salary cap space doesn’t make a lot of sense as the team wants to have as much flexibility when free agency arrives this summer. Instead, the scribe believes the team needs to go the rental route and acquire a player (for a much cheaper price) so the team can make their run.
The team already is without their 2018 first-round pick which they traded for Brayden Schenn, so moving a top prospect could set the team back long-term. The team should look into a player such as Rick Nash, Michael Grabner or Patrick Maroon as options as they likely won’t cost them one of their top prospects in Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas or Klim Kostin.
- The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that alarms should sound after San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton refused to say that he will definitely be back this season. That’s a surprise considering he is a player who last year played through torn MCL and ACL injuries during the playoffs. Historically, he’s been a player who goes out on the ice no matter how hurt he is, so the idea that he might not be back this season suggests the injury is worse than people think. Could he have already played his last game as a San Jose Shark?
- Fox Sports West Patrick O’Neal tweets that Los Angeles Kings forward Trevor Lewis was sent back to Los Angeles to be re-evaluated after being injured in Friday’s game against the Florida Panthers. While indications are that the injury isn’t serious, head coach John Stevens wanted to have him evaluated after he sustained a serious crash against the boards.
- Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that the rumors of a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning deadline deal refuses to go away. He writes that there have been a number of rumors, including talk of Erik Karlsson, and points out that Ottawa’s chief scout is expected to be at the Tampa Bay game tonight.
Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.
Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.
Contract
Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.
2017-18
The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.
Season Stats
35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%
Potential Suitors
So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.
However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.
Likelihood of a Trade
Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.
Snapshots: Johnson, Nash, Green
The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for a landing spot for Jack Johnson, after he requested a trade earlier this season and wants a chance to play a bigger role somewhere before hitting free agency. In tonight’s edition of Insider Trading on TSN with panel members Pierre LeBrun, Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie, they discuss where Johnson could land.
LeBrun even reports that Columbus is “comfortable they can go out and get a low first-round draft pick,” but that they’d still rather get a forward back for a playoff run of their own. That at least seems to increase the likelihood of Johnson being dealt by the deadline, as even a late first is very valuable for clubs on draft day.
- Rick Nash is clearly on the market, now that the New York Rangers have effectively signaled a rebuild and asked for his no-trade list. Dreger lists the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as the top two contenders for Nash, but that as many as ten teams have been in contact with his representatives. Nash is likely going to be one of the top prizes on deadline day, if he even lasts the next few weeks.
- McKenzie chimes in with some news on Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings, once again linking him to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are after a defenseman for their Stanley Cup run, but McKenzie reports that the Red Wings are after a return somewhere between the one they received for Brendan Smith last season (2018 second-round pick, 2017 third-round pick) and the one St. Louis received for Kevin Shattenkirk (effectively 2017 first-round pick, prospect Zach Sanford). Whether Tampa Bay wants to pay that much is unclear, but they do have quite the prospect pipeline already built up if they do start to sacrifice futures.
Snapshots: Devils, Koekkoek, Jerabek
The New Jersey Devils have been a better story than anyone expected this season, jumping from the first-overall pick in June 2017 to third place in the Metropolitan Division as we sit here today. That unexpected success though often comes with hard decisions come the trade deadline, a situation Devils GM Ray Shero is familiar with.
When speaking with Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Shero was clear that he would not deviate from the long-term plan he had for the Devils before the season. He believes that his team will avoid the rental market at their current costs, but will stay open to “hockey deals” over the next few weeks. Shero of course already added Sami Vatanen in a surprising move earlier this season, trading away long time Devils forward Adam Henrique.
- Slater Koekkoek was afforded a rare opportunity to log some higher minute totals while Victor Hedman was out for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and GM Steve Yzerman believes he showed well in his limited exposure. Yzerman told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet as much, who, in his latest 31 Thoughts column, suggested that the Ottawa Senators were among teams showing interest in the young defenseman. Koekkoek was selected 10th-overall in 2012 but has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. Scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer, perhaps the Lightning will look to give him another opportunity elsewhere.
- Speaking of opportunity, that’s all Jakub Jerabek wanted when he signed a contract with the Montreal Canadiens last offseason. Jerabek, 26, left the KHL after one excellent season in order to come to North America, and has acquitted himself well in his debut with Montreal and the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Eric Engels of Sportsnet reports that Jerabek very much enjoys playing in Montreal, and though no contract negotiations have taken place just yet, the player would welcome them at some point. Because of his advanced age, Jerabek was forced to sign just a one-year deal with the Canadiens, and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.
Eastern Notes: McDonagh, Nash, Bruins, Stone
Trade rumors seem to be buzzing around the Tampa Bay Lightning as a team very likely to make a big deal at the trade deadline this year. Already with the best record in the NHL with a 36-13-3 record, the Lightning might be looking to improve both its forward depth as well as its defense for a run at the Stanley Cup this year.
While he is quick to acknowledge that teams cross-scouting each other doesn’t mean a trade is forthcoming, New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that he wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are scouting each other for a potential deadline deal surrounding New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh. The fact that Rangers assistant general manager Chris Drury was spotted at a Syracuse Crunch game (Tampa’s AHL affiliate) on Friday, suggests they might be looking at what they can get from the Lightning in such a move. Tampa Bay’s assistant GM Pat Verbeek has also been spotted at Ranger games recently. McDonagh has often been mentioned in trade rumors as he has one year remaining on his contract after this year, making him a more advantageous acquisition than a pure rental player.
The Lightning might be looking to bolster their defense. The team struggled when they lost Victor Hedman for several weeks to injury. Considering that Tampa Bay likes former Ranger players such as Ryan Callahan and Dan Girardi, perhaps a trade is a possibility. Brooks added that he believes the Rangers would also be willing to retain half of his $4.7MM salary in order to get a quality return.
- In the same article, Brooks adds he believes the New York Rangers also would be willing to retain half of veteran forward Rick Nash‘s contract as well. Nash, who is in the final year of his deal with an AAV of $7.8MM, is believed to have multiple suitors if the price is right, including the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and possibly the Pittsburgh Penguins.
- The Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that the Boston Bruins would also have quite a bit of interest in acquiring McDonagh for their defense. The scribe writes that the veteran’s leadership, character and performance could be quite valuable to a young Bruins’ team. However, would the Bruins be willing to relinquish a first-rounder, a young NHL player and a prospect for him?
- The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”
Lightning Acquire Eddie Pasquale From Oilers
The Lightning and Oilers have made a minor trade as Tampa Bay announced (Twitter link) that they have acquired goaltender Eddie Pasquale from Edmonton in exchange for future considerations.
Pasquale was in his first season with Edmonton’s organization after joining them from Detroit’s AHL team in the summer. He has played in 16 games with their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield this season, posting a 2.60 GAA and a .910 SV%. He will be assigned to Tampa Bay’s minor league team in Syracuse where he will serve as extra depth with starter Louis Domingue currently up with the Lightning. The 27-year-old carries a $700K cap hit in the NHL and has a salary of $150K in the minors with a total of $200K in guaranteed money in the deal.
This deal was made as part of a minor league swap that was made between the two teams as Edmonton’s AHL affiliate picked up netminder Nicola Riopel and winger Ty Loney in exchange for future considerations, a deal that was announced by Syracuse. Both Riopel and Loney are on minor league contracts.
While Pasquale could have been included in that same trade, moving his NHL rights gives the Oilers a little bit of wiggle room on the 50-contract limit. This move drops them down to 48 which gives them some flexibility heading into the trade deadline or to add someone via the college free agent market in March and April.
Injury Notes: Hedman, Frolik, Jones
Last season brought incredibly bad luck in regards to injury for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Steven Stamkos played just 17 games before going down for the rest of the season, and they even lost three different centers all in a single game late in the year.
2017-18 has been much different, until a few weeks ago when Victor Hedman was ruled out for three to six weeks with a knee injury. The team obviously suffered without their Norris Trophy candidate, but that won’t last long. Hedman took a full morning skate with the team and is a game-time decision for the Lightning tonight. The injury occurred on January 11th, less than three weeks ago.
- Michael Frolik has been activated from injured reserve in Calgary, and is expected to play tonight. Frolik hasn’t played in over a month after taking a puck to the face against the San Jose Sharks, and will look to get back on track right away against the Vegas Golden Knights. The 29-year old winger has just 15 points on the season, but is a huge part of the Flames even-strength attack and one of their best penalty killing forwards.
- The illness that kept Seth Jones from appearing in the All-Star game won’t keep him out of any regular season action, and Bruce Boudreau isn’t happy about it. The head coach of the Minnesota Wild called it “ridiculous” that Jones would be allowed to play without serving the normal one-game suspension for avoiding the All-Star festivities at the last minute, but according to Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) the decision was made by the league in order to prevent any outbreak of the flu among the best players in the game. Jones had wanted to play, and now won’t be punished for his absence.