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Prospect Notes: Draft Rankings, 2021 Memorial Cup, McKay

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If you were perusing the NHL Central Scouting draft lists when they came out yesterday and wondered how exactly the North American and International skaters compared, Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet has you covered. The draft analyst released his latest ranking of the top prospects eligible for selection in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, led as always by Alexis Lafreniere.

Some of the other rankings, however, differ significantly from the Central Scouting lists. Of note is Jake Sanderson, who while fourth among North American skaters on one list, comes in seventh among the same group on Cosentino’s. If you want a riser, how about Dylan Holloway, who Cosentino believes is a top-10 talent despite his ranking of #12 among North American skaters by Central Scouting.

  • Many of the players drafted this year will be competing in the CHL’s 2020-21 season, trying to earn their way to the Memorial Cup tournament. They may have to wait a little longer, as Bob McKenzie of TSN reports that the CHL is considering pushing back the schedule for the 2021 Memorial Cup into June of next year to give them a little bit of wiggle room should the start of the season be delayed. McKenzie notes that the tournament will be held in either Oshawa or Sault Ste. Marie, though that decision has not yet been made.
  • Kirby Dach will have a familiar face at Chicago Blackhawks training camp after the Rockford IceHogs signed Riley McKay to an AHL contract for 2020-21. McKay, 21, played with Dach on the Saskatoon Blades in 2018-19, racking up 149 penalty minutes as one of the toughest players in the Western Hockey League. Undrafted, he’ll try to carve out a role for himself in the minor leagues, while still surely watching his teammates’ backs.

North Dakota Could Be Option For Continuation Of NHL Season

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Just about every NHL fan would agree to whatever plan gets hockey back on their TV the soonest, can best make up for the original regular season and postseason schedule, and will produce a fair and valid playoffs and champion. However, it’s doubtful that anyone figured that the best way to resume the season could be to send teams to Grand Forks, North Dakota. Yet, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that the college hockey hotbed has been discussed as a possible ideal location for a neutral site continuation of the NHL season.

Friedman stresses that any plan for re-starting the season is only speculation at this point, but that non-NHL locations for neutral sit games seems like a possible outcome. Whether the regular season resumes as scheduled or if there is some sort of abbreviated schedule or play-in tournament, travel time could be cut back by having teams in just a few locations and neutrality removes any undue benefit to a home team. If games proceed without any fans, another distinct possibility, a location like Grand Forks also makes sense given it houses a world-class facility minus the capacity of an NHL rink. Friedman also notes that the low population density of North Dakota could make it one of safer places to continue play without an increased risk of Coronavirus exposure, while the cold climate could mitigate the ice quality risks of summer play.

Again, nothing is imminent in terms of when and how the NHL will resume play, if they do at all, and that is not expected to change for at least another month or two. Once the league comes up with a suitable plan, the players will have to agree to the terms as well. So, for now the NHL and NHLPA are exploring their options, both in format and locale, for the day we all hope arrives when hockey can return.

 

 

NHL Postpones Combine, Awards & 2020 Draft

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Due to the uncertainty surrounding the current coronavirus pandemic, the NHL has decided to postpone the 2020 NHL Scouting Combine, the 2020 NHL Awards and the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, which were scheduled throughout June. The league is still looking at options for when these events can be held down the road but without a full understanding of when (or if) the season will resume it is obviously impossible to announce a reschedule date at this point.

The league expects to return to Las Vegas for the award show, but “the location, timing and format of the 2020 NHL Draft (and Draft Lottery) will be announced when details are finalized.” That likely means Montreal, who was due to host the event this year, will not be the destination at all. France Margaret Belanger, executive vice-president for Groupe CH, owners of the Canadiens, released a statement on the news:

While today’s news is disappointing for fans of hockey in general and those here in Montreal in particular, this is the right decision to make under the circumstances. I’m confident that the League will propose an alternative that will be in the best interest of all hockey fans.

It comes with little surprise that the league was forced to move these events back or to different venues altogether, given that the season’s fate is still completely up in the air. Players were recently asked to self-isolate for another ten days, but there is still no timeline for resuming play.

KHL Cancels 2019-20 Gagarin Cup Playoffs

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After initially holding out as one of the last few operating sports organizations worldwide, the KHL has now accepted fate. In a statement today, KHL president Alexey Morozov announced that they will cancel the rest of the 2019-20 playoffs and not award the Gagarin Cup. Morozov explained that he understands the frustration of fans, but needed to make a move to protect public health:

It’s unfortunate that we have to finish the season early, and it wasn’t an easy decision. I’m sure that every fan, along with us, wanted to see the conclusion of the competition. However, the health of players and their loved ones, club employees, employees of sports facilities, and, of course, the fans, is much more important.

The KHL is doing everything possible to not delay the start of the 2020-21 season, obviously a different tack than the NHL. Reports and speculation have swirled about the NHL playoffs taking part in the summer, which could push the start of next season back—though, a full 82-game schedule is still the league’s priority.

With the end of the KHL season, several players will start negotiating with NHL organizations, though their contracts do not officially expire until the end of April. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic spoke with the agent for Montreal Canadiens draft pick Alexander Romanov, who wouldn’t commit his client one way or the other at this point.

WHL Designates Connor Bedard With First Ever Exceptional Player Status

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Exceptional player status in the CHL is only declared for those elite 15-year-olds deemed worthy of joining the major junior ranks a year early. Exceptional player status has been granted five times in the OHL – John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad, Connor McDavid, Sean Day, and Shane Wright – and just once in the QMJHL – Joe Veleno – but never before in the WHL. That is, until today. Just one day after the WHL was forced to make the disappointing announcement that the remainder of their season had been canceled, tonight they made the exciting revelation that for the first time exceptional player status has been awarded.

The lucky 15-year-old-to-be is Connor Bedard of North Vancouver, British Columbia. Bedard played this season with the U-18 team of West Vancouver Academy in the Canadian Sports School Hockey League. In 36 games, Bedard recorded a whopping 43 goals and 84 points. He led the league in both categories by a significant margin and contributed on nearly 50% of his teams total goals on the year. While Bedard is still undersized at 5’8” and 165 lbs., he is still four years away from his draft year and will spend all of that time in the WHL growing his already-impressive skills in addition to growing physically.

The WHL Bantam Draft is set for April 22, 2020 and Bedard is now expected to be the prize at No. 1 overall. The 2020 WHL Bantam Draft Lottery is scheduled for tomorrow, Wednesday March 25 and will determine the order of the first six selections of the draft. In the running for the top spot are the the Swift Current Broncos, Moose Jaw Warriors, Tri-City Americans, Prince George Cougars, Regina Pats, and Red Deer Rebels. Just one will end up fortunate enough to land the first ever “exceptional” player in league history.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Snapshots: Timelines, Juniors, College Signings

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It sounds like many NHL players are as restless as the average hockey fan while waiting for the season to resume. The panel on TSN’s Insider Trading outlined a return to action timeline that a group of players has been developing and will submit to the NHLPA, which includes playing the rest of the regular season games in late July.

A plan like this would obviously be exciting for fans as hockey would be played throughout the summer, but there would be an incredible amount of logistics to be worked out. Part of the reasoning behind the plan may also be financial in nature, as players want the league to recoup all of their potential gate revenue in order to not get dinged with even higher escrow numbers than expected. None of the timelines being discussed have any legs at this point, given how there is so much uncertainty there still is on when the season could be allowed to resume. Remember however, that deputy commissioner Bill Daly was clear when speaking with Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic recently that the league does not intend on shortening the 2020-21 season if they can help it, at least in terms of games played.

  • The QMJHL has canceled the remainder of their regular season, meaning playoff seeding will be based on points percentage should it resume at some point. That same move is expected by the WHL according to Bob McKenzie of TSN, with the OHL also discussing their future tomorrow on a conference call. McKenzie suggests that the CHL playoffs at this point are a “long shot” and also notes that the Memorial Cup, which was originally set to start on May 22nd, is scheduled in a province that recently mandated no sporting events with more than 50 people could take place before June.
  • While college free agents continue to sign with NHL organizations, there is some concern rising around the league that some teams are gaining an unfair advantage in negotiations according to Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest. Strickland suggests that some teams may find it more difficult to pay out bonus money to college and European signings while in a suspended league state, noting the difference in cash flow between organizations like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. It’s not clear however what would be done to stop teams from negotiating, especially when any contract signed would likely be ticketed to start with the 2020-21 season.

LeBrun’s Latest: COVID-19 Tests, Potential Schedules, Drop-Dead Date

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While it has already been discussed that the general managers held a conference call with league officials Saturday about the fluidity that surrounds the COVID-19 crisis, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) notes several other issues that have been discussed or that GMs were made aware of. Much of the conference call dealt with the memo that the NHL sent out to all the teams about what teams should and shouldn’t be doing during the suspension of play. However, there were quite a few other topics of interest:

  • So far, there have been no cases of COVID-19 among players yet, although many players have been tested recently and the league still hasn’t gotten those results back. There is a general assumption that some players will eventually test positive. While only a small percentage of the league has been tested, many more players are slowly getting tested, which means how those tests come out will play a big part in both how the league handles letting players enter team facilities and skating or working out in small groups. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that NHL teams have been told that it will be a full week, if not longer, before they can open their facilities for players.
  • LeBrun also notes that when things look to be improving (and that might be a while), the NHL expects there to be a mini-camp for teams before play resumes. How the league continues after that depends on the timing of the crisis. If the league gets back into action in 30 days, then there likely will be time to finish out the regular season. A longer suspension of the season would likely result in different scenarios, which could include a cancellation of the regular season and an extended playoff as well. However, the league hasn’t even begun to discuss scenarios.
  • Perhaps the worry that most have is whether the league has a drop-dead date in which the league would shut down for the season. The league has watched many other leagues, including most European leagues as well as the ECHL, cancel their seasons, but the league has already asked teams for their building availability through July. That would suggest that the league is ready to continue the playoffs into July. However, LeBrun believes that commissioner Gary Bettman has a drop-dead date in mind if things get out of hand. Any later in July would create other issues, which include what will happen with the 2002 Olympic Games. If the Olympics continue in August, then the NHL must decide whether they want to put their playoffs up against that. Regardless, the belief is that a decision on the season will be made by the end of April.

 

Regular Season May Be Over For Non-Playoff Teams

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As things stand, the NHL fully intends to resume game action at some point.  However, although every team still has at least 11 games remaining on the schedule, it appears that not all of them will be lacing up their skates again in 2019-20.  Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that it is widely believed that the season is now finished for teams that have no chance of making the playoffs.

This could mean a few different things.  One is that the playoffs will be set by the current regular season standings (perhaps by points percentage instead of points to account for the discrepancy in games played as some teams have 14 contests left on the schedule).  But that won’t go over well with teams that are just on the edge of being out and there are battles for top-three placement and Wild Card spots across the league.

If they do resume with an abbreviated regular season, how many teams will be allowed to play?  Technically, only one (Detroit) has mathematically been eliminated from a playoff spot.  A team like Chicago is six points out of a Wild Card position and while it’s unlikely that gap can be closed, it’s not impossible either depending on the number of regular season games played.  Another alternative that will be thrown around is a mini-tournament for playoff bubble teams.

Of course, a lot will depend on how this pause in the schedule lasts.  If they’re back in action within the next few weeks (their timeline for self-quarantine suggests they’re targeting a quicker return date than the NBA which has already ruled out 30 days), there’s certainly a possibility that a set of regular season games could still be done.  But if it’s a prolonged break, then that might not be the case.  At the very least though, it seems like some teams may be done already.

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