Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?
Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.
The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.
Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.
Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.
As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.
Snapshots: Timelines, Juniors, College Signings
It sounds like many NHL players are as restless as the average hockey fan while waiting for the season to resume. The panel on TSN’s Insider Trading outlined a return to action timeline that a group of players has been developing and will submit to the NHLPA, which includes playing the rest of the regular season games in late July.
A plan like this would obviously be exciting for fans as hockey would be played throughout the summer, but there would be an incredible amount of logistics to be worked out. Part of the reasoning behind the plan may also be financial in nature, as players want the league to recoup all of their potential gate revenue in order to not get dinged with even higher escrow numbers than expected. None of the timelines being discussed have any legs at this point, given how there is so much uncertainty there still is on when the season could be allowed to resume. Remember however, that deputy commissioner Bill Daly was clear when speaking with Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic recently that the league does not intend on shortening the 2020-21 season if they can help it, at least in terms of games played.
- The QMJHL has canceled the remainder of their regular season, meaning playoff seeding will be based on points percentage should it resume at some point. That same move is expected by the WHL according to Bob McKenzie of TSN, with the OHL also discussing their future tomorrow on a conference call. McKenzie suggests that the CHL playoffs at this point are a “long shot” and also notes that the Memorial Cup, which was originally set to start on May 22nd, is scheduled in a province that recently mandated no sporting events with more than 50 people could take place before June.
- While college free agents continue to sign with NHL organizations, there is some concern rising around the league that some teams are gaining an unfair advantage in negotiations according to Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest. Strickland suggests that some teams may find it more difficult to pay out bonus money to college and European signings while in a suspended league state, noting the difference in cash flow between organizations like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. It’s not clear however what would be done to stop teams from negotiating, especially when any contract signed would likely be ticketed to start with the 2020-21 season.
LeBrun’s Latest: COVID-19 Tests, Potential Schedules, Drop-Dead Date
While it has already been discussed that the general managers held a conference call with league officials Saturday about the fluidity that surrounds the COVID-19 crisis, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) notes several other issues that have been discussed or that GMs were made aware of. Much of the conference call dealt with the memo that the NHL sent out to all the teams about what teams should and shouldn’t be doing during the suspension of play. However, there were quite a few other topics of interest:
- So far, there have been no cases of COVID-19 among players yet, although many players have been tested recently and the league still hasn’t gotten those results back. There is a general assumption that some players will eventually test positive. While only a small percentage of the league has been tested, many more players are slowly getting tested, which means how those tests come out will play a big part in both how the league handles letting players enter team facilities and skating or working out in small groups. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that NHL teams have been told that it will be a full week, if not longer, before they can open their facilities for players.
- LeBrun also notes that when things look to be improving (and that might be a while), the NHL expects there to be a mini-camp for teams before play resumes. How the league continues after that depends on the timing of the crisis. If the league gets back into action in 30 days, then there likely will be time to finish out the regular season. A longer suspension of the season would likely result in different scenarios, which could include a cancellation of the regular season and an extended playoff as well. However, the league hasn’t even begun to discuss scenarios.
- Perhaps the worry that most have is whether the league has a drop-dead date in which the league would shut down for the season. The league has watched many other leagues, including most European leagues as well as the ECHL, cancel their seasons, but the league has already asked teams for their building availability through July. That would suggest that the league is ready to continue the playoffs into July. However, LeBrun believes that commissioner Gary Bettman has a drop-dead date in mind if things get out of hand. Any later in July would create other issues, which include what will happen with the 2002 Olympic Games. If the Olympics continue in August, then the NHL must decide whether they want to put their playoffs up against that. Regardless, the belief is that a decision on the season will be made by the end of April.
Regular Season May Be Over For Non-Playoff Teams
As things stand, the NHL fully intends to resume game action at some point. However, although every team still has at least 11 games remaining on the schedule, it appears that not all of them will be lacing up their skates again in 2019-20. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that it is widely believed that the season is now finished for teams that have no chance of making the playoffs.
This could mean a few different things. One is that the playoffs will be set by the current regular season standings (perhaps by points percentage instead of points to account for the discrepancy in games played as some teams have 14 contests left on the schedule). But that won’t go over well with teams that are just on the edge of being out and there are battles for top-three placement and Wild Card spots across the league.
If they do resume with an abbreviated regular season, how many teams will be allowed to play? Technically, only one (Detroit) has mathematically been eliminated from a playoff spot. A team like Chicago is six points out of a Wild Card position and while it’s unlikely that gap can be closed, it’s not impossible either depending on the number of regular season games played. Another alternative that will be thrown around is a mini-tournament for playoff bubble teams.
Of course, a lot will depend on how this pause in the schedule lasts. If they’re back in action within the next few weeks (their timeline for self-quarantine suggests they’re targeting a quicker return date than the NBA which has already ruled out 30 days), there’s certainly a possibility that a set of regular season games could still be done. But if it’s a prolonged break, then that might not be the case. At the very least though, it seems like some teams may be done already.
NHL Standings By Points Percentage
One of the biggest questions now that the NHL has decided to temporarily suspend the season is what will happen in the playoffs. The league did not explain what the plan was at this point because there is no clear timeline on when the season will resume (if at all), but many have speculated about how they would decide which teams qualify should there not be time to play any more regular season games.
The prevailing thought if the season is forced to go right into the playoffs, would be that points percentage—rather than points in the standings—is how the seeding is determined. That’s because teams have not played the same number of games to this point, with the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders bringing up the rear with 68 games played, three fewer than those who have completed the most.
In that case, some interesting changes would happen to the standings. The Atlantic Division standings would stay the same, with the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs still leading in points percentage. The Metropolitan would be where it would come into play however, as the Islanders currently have a better percentage than the Blue Jackets, despite trailing them by one point in the standings. The Blue Jackets just so happen to hold the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Over in the Western Conference there is a similar situation. The Nashville Predators are just barely ahead of the Winnipeg Jets in percentage, despite being two points behind them in the standings. The Vancouver Canucks are also just ahead of the Calgary Flames, meaning both divisions would have a swap.
Of course, none of this is certain to play out at this point. The NHL may resume the regular season and play out the dozen or so games left for each team, or may not be able to return to normal at all this year. There are also other options like a play-in tournament that some have suggested. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see what comes about in the next weeks and months. The full standings by points percentage is as follows:
Atlantic Division
x-Boston Bruins: .714, 44-14-12
x-Tampa Bay Lightning: .657, 43-21-6
x-Toronto Maple Leafs: .579, 36-25-9
Florida Panthers: .565, 35-26-8
Montreal Canadiens: .500, 31-31-9
Buffalo Sabres: .493, 30-31-8
Ottawa Senators: .437, 25-34-12
Detroit Red Wings: .275, 17-49-5
Metropolitan Division
x-Washington Capitals: .652, 41-20-8
x-Philadelphia Flyers: .645, 41-21-7
x-Pittsburgh Penguins: .623, 40-23-6
w1-Carolina Hurricanes: .596, 38-25-5
w2-New York Islanders: .588, 35-23-10
Columbus Blue Jackets: .579, 33-22-15
New York Rangers: .564, 37-28-5
New Jersey Devils: .493, 28-29-12
Central Division
x-St. Louis Blues: .662, 42-19-10
x-Colorado Avalanche: .657, 42-20-8
x-Dallas Stars: .594, 37-24-8
w1-Nashville Predators: .565, 35-26-8
Winnipeg Jets: .563, 37-28-6
Minnesota Wild: .558, 35-27-7
Chicago Blackhawks: .514, 32-30-8
Pacific Division
x-Vegas Golden Knights: .606, 39-24-8
x-Edmonton Oilers: .585, 37-25-9
x-Vancouver Canucks: .565, 36-27-6
w2-Calgary Flames: .564, 36-27-7
Arizona Coyotes: .529, 33-29-8
Anaheim Ducks: .472, 29-33-9
Los Angeles Kings: .457, 29-35-6
San Jose Sharks: .450, 29-36-5
x = Divisional Playoff Spot
w = Wildcard Playoff Spot
Overseas Notes: Coronavirus, World Championships, Sticks, Jokipakka
As the coronavirus crisis continues to creep into every corner of day-to-day life, it was only a matter of time before it started to have a major impact on hockey. IIHF President Rene Fasel has revealed to the Swiss media that the threat of coronavirus is being taken seriously as it pertains to upcoming international tournaments. Fasel states that the IIHF’s medical commission is currently meeting to discuss the potential cancellations of any international events in March and April. This would include the U-18 World Junior Championships, scheduled to be held in Michigan in April. Should the sickness persist, the IIHF will also have to consider cancelling the 2020 World Championships, slated to take place in Switzerland in May. Fasel gives March 15th as the date when these difficult decisions will begin to have to be made. This appears to be a decision based wholly on health risks, as the tournaments are insured against cancellation and neither the IIHF nor the hosts would be facing financial loss. With that said, Fasel also ruled out the possibility that tournaments could still be held but just closed to the public. With no end to the coronavirus outbreak in sight, it appears more likely than not that the U-18’s and World Championships this year could be the next victims of the disease.
- Of course, this is not the first link between coronavirus and hockey, as the mass shutdown of the Chinese economy has greatly limited the supply of sticks to the NHL and other levels of the game. Both Bauer and CCM have their primary factories in the country most greatly affected by this outbreak and neither have been in operation for weeks, while shipping to North America has also been halted. Players across the league have begun to stock up on sticks as they face the possibility of a coming shortage. NHL players, who often order custom sticks in small batches, may have to work with what they have through the rest of the season and possibly into the postseason.
- In non-pandemic news, former NHLer Jyrki Jokipakka has benefited greatly from a move to Europe. Now with his second team in his third season since leaving North America, Jokipakka was the undisputed top defender for the KHL’s Sibir Novosibirk this season, leading the team in time on ice and finishing near the top in assists, points, and blocked shots. He also finished among the top-ten producers on defense league-wide. While Sibir has not yet begun their Gagarin Cup playoff campaign, Jokipakka is already the bright spot of the season for the team. The club opted to reward him for his success with a new two-year extension. Jokipakka flashed ability in the NHL, but never able to put it all together in stops with the Dallas Stars, Calgary Flames, and Ottawa Senators. So, while the 28-year-old could have waited to see if there was NHL interest this off-season, it seems like he has made the right choice to stick with where he has finally found consistent success and is valued as a top contributor.
Wild To Host Blues In 2021 Winter Classic
Earlier this month, the NHL revealed that Carolina would be hosting their first-ever outdoor game next season (against an opponent that’s yet to be determined) but it wouldn’t be in the Winter Classic. Now, we know which two teams will be competing on New Years’ Day as the league announced that the Wild will host the Blues for the 13th edition of the event that first began in 2008. It will be the 31st outdoor game in NHL history.
This will be Minnesota’s first-ever time hosting the event though it won’t be their first outdoor game. They hosted a game against Chicago as part of the Stadium Series back in 2016 and won that game 6-1. Meanwhile, this will also be the second time that St. Louis plays outdoors. They hosted the 2017 edition of the Winter Classic (also against Chicago) and won that game 4-1.
That will be the only other outdoor game on the schedule for the 2020-21 season. There have been talks about another Heritage Classic game in Canada but that won’t come until 2021-22 at the earliest.
League Notes: Rescheduling, Julien, Kane
After the game between the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday was postponed following Jay Bouwmeester’s cardiac event on the bench, it was clear that the Blues’ schedule would be in for a shake-up in order to make up the game. With limited time left in the season – adding a 23rd game to the Blues’ schedule over the remaining 48 games of the regular season – was not going to be easy, especially when the team needed to return to Southern California despite not having any more road games scheduled against the Pacific Division. The NHL did their best to find the best time to play the game and the Blues have announced the re-worked schedule. The team will now resume their game with the Ducks on Wednesday, March 11th. Their home game against the Florida Panther that had been scheduled for March 10th has now been moved up a day to March 9th as well. St. Louis will now wrap up a road trip through New York, New Jersey, and Chicago on March 8th, return home on the 9th, fly to Anaheim for the 11th, and then head back home to face the Sharks on the 13th. It will be a busy week for sure, but likely preferable to making the game up with an extra day after the end of the regular season, as the Panthers and Bruins did two years ago. As for the postponed game itself, the league has decided to keep the points on the board but re-start with a fresh 60 minutes rather than account for the first nine minutes of play from the previous game. As such, the Blues and Ducks will begin the game at 1-1, but there will be no other changes from a typical regular season game.
- Montreal Canadiens head coach Claude Julien has been fined $10,000 for remarks he made about the officiating in the team’s game on Saturday, the league announced. The game in question, a 4-3 overtime loss to the Dallas Stars, featured a number of missed penalties suffered by the Canadiens. In fact, the team did not have a single power play in the game. A frustrated Julien listed many of the missed calls in his postgame availability and called the officiating “embarrassing”. Perhaps the most incriminating line was Julien’s implication that the calls were skewed in Dallas’ favor, as he stated that Montreal “had to beat two teams.” While it fair to criticize officiating and to wish that there was more accountability for a poor job by the referees, the league is never going to tolerate such public comments, especially by a head coach. Julien had to have known that a fine was coming, so this should not come as much of a shock, fair or not.
- San Jose Sharks forward Evander Kane is also unhappy with the league’s officials, both on the ice and within the Department of Player Safety. Kane was suspended three games for an elbow to the head of Winnipeg defenseman Neal Pionk on Friday. Kane spoke out on the suspension and his gripe was not with his individual penalty, but with the inconsistency of the call. “There have been countless incidents of the same nature through this season and past seasons that have gone unsuspended or (un)fined,” Kane said. “No one person can tell you what is and isn’t a suspension in today’s game, it’s a complete guess. There is a major lack of consistency with NHL Department of Player Safety… You can’t continue to give some players a pass and throw the book at others.” The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell concurs with Kane’s statement, pointing out a very recent example. Just last week, Arizona Coyotes forward Lawson Crouse hit Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy in the head with an elbow and received only a roughing minor. Not only was the hit nearly identical to that of Kane on Pionk, but it was also very similar to another hit in the same game, a check by the Bruins’ Jeremy Lauzon on the Coyotes’ Derek Stepan that earned Lauzon a two-game suspension. The inconsistency of the Department of Player Safety, as well as on-ice officials, is well-documented, but this is the first time that any player has spoken out so publicly about it. Perhaps Kane’s call to action will do more than just earn him an additional fine. He is advocating for a third party to review all questionable hits and penalties rather than the NHL, which could become a bargaining plea for the players in the next CBA if the league does not improve in this area.
Boston Bruins Extend Jeremy Lauzon
Fresh off of serving his two-game suspension, Jeremy Lauzon is getting a nice new contract. The Boston Bruins have signed Lauzon to a two-year extension that carries an average annual value of $850K. The young defenseman was scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the end of the year, but will now be under contract through 2021-22.
Lauzon, 22, was originally selected 52nd overall in 2015 and is now on the precipice of becoming a full-time NHL player. Though he has only spent 23 games at that level so far in his short career the future, both in terms of performance and situation, look bright. The Bruins have three significant defenders—Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara and Kevan Miller—all scheduled for unrestricted free agency, and with it opportunity for some of the younger options.
The fact that Lauzon is now under contract for so little will only help his chances of staying in Boston. An $850K cap hit is just a little more than the league minimum, meaning they can fit him in even if they were to spend big to keep Krug around. There are plenty of options for the Bruins, but they obviously believe that Lauzon can contribute down the road.
The young defenseman could potentially be eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency at the end of the deal, should he fail to play in another 57 games at the NHL level. That likely won’t be an issue, but is at least something to remember over the next two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets Extend Dean Kukan
The Columbus Blue Jackets have decided to reward one of their emerging defensemen with a new contract. Dean Kukan has signed a two-year extension with the club. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports the deal will pay Kukan $1.3MM in 2020-21 and $2.0MM in 2021-22 (for an AAV of $1.65MM). Blue Jackets’ GM Jarmo Kekalainen released a short statement:
Dean is a smart and quick, puck-moving defenseman that has improved steadily since joining our organization in 2015. We are very happy that he will continue to be an important part of our club’s deep and talented group of defensemen.
Kukan was scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season and currently carries a $725K cap hit. The 26-year old undrafted defenseman came to the Blue Jackets organization as a free agent in 2015 after several years in the Swedish Hockey league, and has slowly worked his way up the depth chart. This season he has suited up 33 times in the NHL and has five points, though a recent injury has kept him out of the lineup.
The Blue Jackets, intent on proving they were always more than just Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, have exceeded expectations this season with a core led by Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois. The first three names of that group are signed at very reasonable prices for the next several years, while Dubois is coming off his entry-level deal. With savvy extensions for depth players like Kukan and a development system that is churning out NHL-level talent, Kekalainen’s organization is looking like one of the strongest in the Eastern Conference.
The question now will be how they work their way through a few drafts without much pick capital after spending it at the deadline last season, but acquiring players like Kukan has softened the blow.