Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.
Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.
Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.
Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.
Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.
Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.
Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.
If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.
Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.
Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.
Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.
A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.
With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.
Snapshots: Zetterberg, Miller, Brown
With the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL, Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg assumed the mantle as the team’s longest tenured player. Entering his 14th NHL campaign and soon to turn 36-years-old, the skilled Swedish forward has certainly seen better days as evidenced by his 16-point drop in scoring from 2014-15 to this past season. That being said, Zetterberg is still someone the Wings will lean on if the team wishes to stretch its streak of qualifying for the postseason to 26 years.
Zetterberg acknowledges a drop-off in his play during the second half of each of the previous two seasons and suggests he is looking at different ways to stay fresh throughout the coming season, according to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
“That’s what’s gotten me the last two years, I ran out of gas. You can’t play hockey in this level when you run out of gas. So that’s one thing we’re going to play around with.”
Zetterberg tallied 27 points in the season’s first 34 games through December but struggled down the stretch recording just nine points over the final 24 contests. He also chipped in just a single point, a goal in game three, during Detroit’s five-game, first-round playoff loss to Tampa Bay. Zetterberg stated he is at least willing to listen if head coach Jeff Blashill suggests decreased ice time or even taking a game off here and there.
“As a player, as soon as you hear ‘less minutes,’ you’re not happy. I don’t think I will go and tell Coach I need less minutes. But if he decides that I need to play less or get some rest dates, I’m open to listen to that.”
“We want to see the younger guys take steps and kind of take minutes from the older guys. But I won’t give it away, they have to earn it. That’s part of the transition. I went through it when I came in and started to play more. But you have to earn it.”
Zetterberg has five seasons remaining on a long-term deal that took effect in 2009-10. He carries a cap hit just in excess of $6MM annually but the final three seasons of his contract come with actual salaries of $3.35MM, $1MM and $1MM respectively. It will be interesting to see if Zetterberg is both willing and able to finish out the pact with the Red Wings.
Elsewhere around the league:
- After trading away talented young blue liner Dougie Hamilton and steady veteran defender Johnny Boychuk in successive offseasons, the Boston Bruins are still searching for a reliable top-four defenseman, as Joe Haggerty opines. An aging Zdeno Chara is still the club’s top defenseman with Torey Krug likely not far behind but beyond those two, pickings are slim. Haggerty admits the team has the cap space and veteran assets to make a trade if they so choose, though they may already have the top-four option they seek on the roster. While also listing prospect Brandon Carlo and youngster Joe Morrow as possibilities, Haggerty believes Colin Miller might be the Bruins “X-factor” on the blue line. As Haggerty notes, Miller scored 19 goals and 52 points in 70 AHL games with the Manchester Monarchs in 2014-15, suggesting he has the skill to put up points in the big leagues. Miller came to Boston from Los Angeles in the Milan Lucic trade during the 2015 offseason and may be coming into his own as an NHL player after producing 16 points in just 42 games as a rookie. With few quality options available either on the trade market or in free agency, it might be wise for Boston to give Miller a chance before looking outside the organization for a top-four blue liner.
- According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet (via tweet), Mike Brown is the latest veteran player to land a PTO with the tough guy winger signing on in Columbus. Brown, 31, spent time with both San Jose and Montreal last season, scoring two goals and three assists in 58 games with 90 PIMs. For his career, Brown has potted 19 goals and recorded 778 minutes of penalties in 407 NHL games. He has suited up for Vancouver, Anaheim, Toronto and Edmonton in addition to the Sharks and Habs in his nine NHL seasons. The Blue Jackets bought out the contract of veteran enforcer Jared Boll earlier this summer and could see Brown as a possible replacement depending on his play during training camp.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk
It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.
Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).
The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.
Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown‘s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.
Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.
Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.
Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.
Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.
Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.
Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.
Can’t-Miss Games Of The 2016-17 NHL Season: October
The start of the NHL regular season may be a month away with the World Cup of Hockey and preseason still to come, but it’s never too early to get excited for the best slate of games the NHL has to offer this season. Here are the can’t miss-games of October:
Oct. 12th – Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
The puck drops on a new NHL season at 7pm ET in the Canadian capital, as the Sens host the Leafs in a rivalry match-up. With #1 overall pick Auston Matthews and newly acquired keeper Frederik Andersen expected to be among many new faces in the Toronto lineup, the Leafs will have a clean slate as they start the year off against old friend Dion Phaneuf and an Ottawa team looking to get back to the playoffs.
Oct. 12th – Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers
Later that night, the Oilers will open the brand new Rogers Place for it’s first NHL regular-season game, as they welcome their Alberta rivals. Edmonton will definitely be curious to see if the newly-acquired Adam Larsson can help to slow down the Flames’ dynamic duo of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. Leaving behind Rexall Place and the many memories (though few good ones in recent years) they had there, the Oilers will look to start the season off on the right foot in a new building, while Calgary hopes to play spoiler.
October 13th – Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The home opener for the 2015-16 Stanley Cup champs comes against none other than the 2015-16 President’s Trophy winners, as fans are treated to a battle of talent and intensity between two fierce rivals on just Day 2 of the NHL season. Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin will each look to start off strong and lead their teams to victory, as the Penguins begin a title defense and the Capitals begin another long march toward that elusive Stanley Cup championship.
October 20th – San Jose Sharks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins have another big game a week later, this time against their Stanley Cup competitors, the Sharks. The 2016 Stanley Cup final was one of the best in recent memory, with immense speed and talent on both sides and young goalies Martin Jones and Matt Murray standing on their heads. Though nothing can make up for falling short when it mattered most, you can bet that captain Joe Pavelski and the Sharks will be fired up for some revenge in this game.
October 23rd – Edmonton Oilers vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Jets will get their first taste of outdoor hockey, as they square off against the Oilers in the Heritage Classic. Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, home of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the Canadian Football League, will host the game as these two Canadian teams look to battle it out, and at least put on a better show than the much talked-about Alumni Game.
Snapshots: Canucks, Avalanche, Nielsen, Donskoi
Many pundits feel the Vancouver Canucks are a team lacking direction. On the one hand, they introduced some much-needed youth to their aging core last season with young forwards Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann given their first extended NHL looks and joining second-year pro Bo Horvat as possible future building blocks. On the other hand, Vancouver failed to advance their rebuild by dealing expiring assets at the trade deadline for draft picks and/or prospects. Trading Dan Hamhuis and/or Radim Vrbata would have netted the Canucks multiple futures to further the team’s roster reconstruction.
Instead, the Canucks surprised many this spring by parting with the aforementioned McCann as part of a package to acquire veteran defenseman Erik Gudbranson in what was clearly a move designed to help the team win now. The free agent addition of winger Loui Eriksson also signals that Vancouver is not committed to a rebuild and will rather try to slowly integrate younger players onto the roster while at the same time attempting to remain in the mix for a playoff spot.
It’s with this mentality that GM Jim Benning continues his search for an impact offensive LW, as Ben Kuzma of The Province writes. Daniel Sedin remains the team’s top port side winger and the team expects young Sven Baertschi – currently listed as the team’s #2 LW – to improve upon his 15-goal output in 2015-16. Beyond those two the Canucks have a few wingers who can line up on either side of center – including Eriksson – but don’t have enough depth to switch a player to the left without creating another hole on the right side.
Kuzma lists several candidates who could fill the role of impact LW, both internal and external. The most interesting might be Anton Rodin, the team’s second-round pick in 2009 and whom the Canucks signed to a one-year deal worth just $950K. Rodin enjoyed an excellent 2015-16 campaign, netting 16 goals and 37 points in 33 contests with Brynas IF of the Swedish Elite League while capturing the league’s MVP award.
As for possibilities currently outside the Canucks organization, Kuzma lists Evander Kane as a potential trade option – a notion we’ve reported on in the past – though he also brings up the off-ice issues surrounding Buffalo’s talented winger and suggests that might limit Vancouver’s interest. Kuzma also opines that the cost to acquire an established player like Kane would likely start with one of Chris Tanev or Horvat, and that’s simply a price the Canucks are unwilling to pay.
Surprisingly, Kuzma writes that the Canucks didn’t view Jiri Hudler as a short-term answer even though the Czech winger is just two seasons removed from a 76-point campaign and ultimately signed a one-year pact with Dallas worth $2MM. Hudler would have been a perfectly reasonable buy-low add for the Canucks. He’s capable of producing at a rate more than acceptable for a top-six forward and would have been a potentially valuable asset to possess at the 2017 deadline with contending teams always looking to augment their scoring depth.
Elsewhere in the NHL on this Labor Day:
- At his introductory news conference last week, new Colorado head coach Jared Bednar confirmed he would be keeping all three assistant coaches – Tim Army, Dave Farrish and Nolan Pratt – from the previous regime, according to Terry Frei of the Denver Post. It’s not much of a surprise given the late hiring of Bednar meant that many coaches he may have considered for positions were already committed elsewhere. Additionally, Pratt worked under Bednar as an assistant with Lake Erie in 2015-16 so there was already a comfort level between the two coaches. After talking with each of his assistants, Bednar is satisfied he has the right mix of experience and knowledge among his staff.
- An unheralded free agent signing by the Sharks in May of 2015, Joonas Donskoi would end up playing a key role for the Western Conference champions in 2015-16, scoring 11 goals and 36 points in 76 regular season games. He would ramp up his performance in the playoffs tallying six goals and 12 points in 24 contests. Now that Donskoi has established himself as an NHL regular, the expectations have been raised going into year two of his career, as Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area writes. After establishing solid chemistry with C Logan Couture, both down the stretch of the regular campaign and in the postseason, Donskoi is again likely to slot in on the right side of the skilled pivot. If he takes advantage of his opportunity to play with Couture, it’s conceivable Donskoi could approach 50 points in a full season.
- After losing superstar center Pavel Datsyuk, who chose to return home to Russia to be closer to his family, the Detroit Red Wings were left with a gaping hole down the middle of their lineup. They attempted to address that loss in part by signing solid two-way pivot Frans Nielsen to a lucrative six-year, $31.5MM free agent deal this summer. While he won’t be expected to replace Datsyuk’s offense, he will be counted on to play a responsible game and appear in all situations for the Wings, says Ansar Khan of MLive.com. Nielsen has only ever tallied 20 goals or 50 points on two occasions but is known as an excellent playmaker and someone who should help improve both the Wings PP and PK units. He is also an elite shootout performer who might be worth an extra few standings points a year to Detroit in that area alone.
Snapshots: Blues, Hertl, Moses
St. Louis coach Ken Hitchcock may be heading into his final season behind an NHL bench but he’s certainly not being complacent, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Hitchcock along with coach-in-waiting Mike Yeo and the rest of the coaching staff have put the finishing touches on their new system in advance of training camp later this month. In particular, the team is changing the way it plays in its own end, something that should keep both the players and the coaching staff on their toes; Hitchcock added his thoughts about the decision to change:
“For a coach, when you’re secure in the way you play and then all of a sudden you’re going to make changes, it’s pretty dramatic. Coaches don’t view offensive changes as dramatic, but when you’re changing things defensively most coaches view that as pretty dramatic.”
With their plans in place, the coaches are now in the process of presenting it to their leadership core, including new captain Alex Pietrangelo. Assuming the players are all on board with the changes, then the new system will be unveiled to the rest of the team in training camp. While it may seem odd to seek approval from the players on the system, Hitchcock added that “There’s no point in putting it together if the players don’t buy into it”.
More from around the league:
- While Sharks forward Tomas Hertl won’t play at the World Cup, he doesn’t appear likely to miss any NHL action. In a statement from GM Doug Wilson (courtesy of CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz), he noted that Hertl is on track to be ready to start the year and doesn’t want to do anything to jeopardize that. Wilson also praised Hertl for choosing “to put his commitment to the Sharks and his teammates first”.
- While his most recent return to North America didn’t go well, left winger Steve Moses hasn’t ruled out giving the NHL another shot down the road, writes Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe. Moses signed a one year, $1MM deal with Nashville last year but didn’t make the team out of camp and was assigned to their AHL affiliate. After 16 games with that team, his deal was terminated and he returned to the KHL where he remains under contract through 2017-18. He has flirted with the point-per-game mark in each of his last two years in Russia and if he keeps that up, he should stay on the NHL radar. However, Moses acknowledges that it will take a richer contract for him to try again as he is making more than the $1MM he was set to earn last season.
Radko Gudas, Tomas Hertl To Miss World Cup
The injuries keep piling up for the Czech Republic in advance of the World Cup of Hockey as both Philadelphia defenseman Radko Gudas and San Jose forward Tomas Hertl will not play as first reported by hokej.cz’s Vaclav Jachin (link in Czech). Gudas is dealing with a wrist injury while Hertl still hasn’t recovered from the knee injury that forced him out of the lineup in the Stanley Cup Final back in June.
Gudas is coming off a strong first season with the Flyers where he provided the team with some grit on the back end. He played in 76 games, collecting 14 points while adding 116 PIMS, 304 hits, and 157 blocked shots. He also played in six postseason contests, being held pointless but he managed to average five hits per game. The 26 year old was rewarded with a four year extension this offseason with a cap hit of $3.35MM.
Philadelphia GM Ron Hextall released the following statement on the Flyers website about the injury:
“Radko Gudas sustained an upper body injury during his offseason training and will be evaluated on a week to week basis. We are hopeful and optimistic that he will not miss any regular season games.”
As for Hertl, he’s coming off the best season of his three year career, recording 21 goals and 25 assists in 81 regular season games for the Sharks. He continued his strong play in the postseason, picking up another 11 points in 20 games to give San Jose some secondary scoring. He inked a two year, $6MM bridge deal back in June.
No replacements have been named at this time. For now, it’s likely that Roman Cervenka, who has added to replace David Krejci yesterday, will move into a regular role with the Czech squad.
[Related: Updated Czech World Cup Roster]
Snapshots: Torres, Jokipakka, World Cup
Raffi Torres will turn 35-years old on October 8th. He hasn’t played an NHL game since April 30th, 2014 (when the Sharks were eliminated from the postseason). He has been suspended five times during his NHL career, the latest lasting 41 games. The Toronto Maple Leafs, after agreeing to acquire his rights in a deadline deal last year, immediately loaned him back to his current AHL team, not wanting any part of him in their organization.
But somehow, he’s earned a professional tryout from the Carolina Hurricanes this fall and will skate to try and snatch a spot on their fourth line. In a piece by Chip Alexander of The News & Observer today, Torres and GM Ron Francis talk about his latest (and possibly last) opportunity in the NHL.
“I know I’ve got to change. I know I say that over and over, but I’ve got to change and I can change,” says Torres when speaking about his suspensions. He admits that what he’s done over his career is wrong, and seems genuinely convinced he could offer something to the Hurricanes this season. Francis, for his part says he has “served his time” and is willing to at least give him a look this fall. If he does make the roster, he’ll be joining his eighth NHL team in 16 years. Here is more from around the league:
- Among the news that Sean Monahan is still too injured to participate in the upcoming World Cup, Wes Gilbertson of Postmedia tweeted out another interesting injury tidbit. Jyrki Jokipakka, who underwent hip surgery at the end of the season is now expected to be “good to go” for the tournament. Jokipakka was part of the return for Kris Russell this past year, and was well received in his 18 game Calgary stint. He’ll be suiting up for a Finnish team that is looking like a darkhorse candidate; Patrik Laine recently won tournament MVP at the World Championships, while the goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Tuukka Rask should be among the best.
- Staying with the World Cup, Rob Vollman of NHL.com published a piece that says the possibility that the North America team wins the tournament isn’t necessarily a long-shot, due to the usual peak of physical performance around 24. Indeed, the youngster team led by Connor McDavid will have a speed advantage over the rest of the field, and can create offense at an elite level already. The one thing Vollman mentions as a weakness though, faceoff skill, was weakened today when Monahan withdrew. The Calgary centerman was clearly the best on the team in the circle, meaning players like Auston Matthews and Mark Scheifele will have to step up in the defensive end.
Las Vegas Hires Kelly Kisio As Pro Scout
If you were an expansion team, looking to fill your ranks with the best hockey minds not currently employed by an NHL team, where would you look? Las Vegas has decided that the WHL is the place to go, as they’ve mined another long-time front office member from the junior ranks. According to a team release, Kelly Kisio, a member of the Calgary Hitmen front office for the past 18-years, has been hired by the expansion franchise as a pro scout.
Kisio first joined the Hitmen in 1998-99 as the General Manager, and continued in that role until 2013 when he was promoted to President of Hockey Operations. He also spent four seasons behind the bench with the club from 2004-08 while still in his GM role. He’ll now join the Vegas club as a pro scout covering the western region.
An excellent player in his day, Kisio scored 658 points in 761 goals for the Red Wings, Rangers, Sharks and Flames, including a 78 point effort in 1987-88. Serving as captain of the Rangers for over three seasons he made one all-star appearance in 1993.
The hiring of Kisio follows a clear pattern for GM George McPhee this summer, after he hired AGM Kelly McCrimmon from the Brandon Wheat Kings and amateur scout Bruno Campese from the Prince Albert Raiders among others.
San Jose Goalie Conundrum
San Jose Sharks goalie Martin Jones was excellent last year. In his first season as a full-time NHL starter, Jones won 37 games and posted a .918 save percentage and 2.27 goals against average en route to a Western Conference championship. On Sharks off nights, San Jose was still home to a star goalie as Jones’ expected backup in 2016-17, former North Dakota Fighting Sioux standout Aaron Dell, was also great in his first full-time AHL season with the San Jose Barracuda. Dell had a .922 save percentage and 2.42 GAA, earning himself a two-year, $1.25MM contract extension this off-season. So where is the problem? Unfortunately for the Sharks, the problems abound with this duo going into the new season.
First, there is the reliability of Jones to worry about. Although he has given the Sharks no reason to worry about him, nor did his time as a backup with the Los Angeles Kings raise any red flags, Jones is swimming through dangerous waters in 2016-17. The dreaded sophomore slump has not been kind to goalies in Jones’ position. Even though he was not technically a rookie last season, it was his first year as an NHL starter. In the past, goalies who have shined bright in their first season as the number one man in net have often faltered the next season. The most recent example is Steve Mason. The former Columbus goalie, who started for the Blue Jackets right out of junior hockey, was outstanding in his first year. His .916 save percentage, 2.29 GAA, and league-leading 10 shutouts earned him the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie in 2008-09. In 2009-10? Mason’s GAA blew up to 3.06, while his save percentage fell to .901. Mason went 20-26-9 that season, after posting a 33-20-7 line the year before. Even worse than having just one bad sophomore slump year, Mason’s struggles in Columbus continued until he was finally traded to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012-13. But surely a Calder-winning goalie having the wheels fall off is just an anomaly, right? Not so much; it happened just a few seasons before Mason. This time, it was Boston Bruins rookie sensation Andrew Raycroft. After a few seasons as a backup to the less-than-stellar likes of Byron Dafoe, Steve Shields, and John Grahame, Bruins fans were ecstatic when Raycroft took the reins in 2003-04 and put up a .926 save percentage and 2.05 GAA. Then it all fell apart. Following the lockout year, Raycroft started the 2005-06 season off as a hero and ended it as a disgraced third string. He had a miserable .879 save percentage and .371 GAA, which gave the Bruins more than enough reason to hand the starting job to Tim Thomas. They took it a step further in the off-season, dealing Raycroft to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Tuukka Rask. In 2006-07, Raycroft allowed a league-high 205 goals as the Leafs net minder, and would never work as a starting goalie in the NHL again. You can of course make the argument that Martin Jones is simply a better goalie than Raycroft, but is he better than the aforementioned Rask? Probably not. (Rask is second all-time in save percentage) Even Rask encountered this problem though. After a few seasons as a backup, Rask played so well in 2009-10 that he forced a share of the starting job with the fan-favorite Thomas. Rask played in 45 games to Thomas’ 43, and in those appearances he had an impeccable .931 save percentage and 1.97 GAA, both of which led the league. Rask finished fourth in Calder voting and seventh in Vezina voting and there was a general assumption that the team was his. Entering his first year as the presumptive starter, Rask struggled. He had only a .918 save percentage and 2.67 GAA for the season, as Thomas took back the starting job early on and led the Bruins to a Stanley Cup. Yet another case study: former Penguins goalie J-S Aubin. Aubin’s numbers in his final year as a backup and first year as a starter in Pittsburgh are very comparable to Jones’ past two seasons. In Aubin’s next season, he had a gruesome .890 save percentage and 3.13 GAA.
Such a drastic collapse like Aubin’s or Raycroft’s may not happen to Martin Jones, but it could. He could also just see his stats fall to pedestrian levels like Rask or Mason. Either way, the Sharks are not prepared. If Jones’ numbers fall off, they do not have the goalie depth they need. As good as Dell was last season, he would be a 27-year-old rookie who has bounced around the ECHL and AHL for the past four years. The Sharks claim to have faith in their backup, but their actions betrayed their words when they kept the struggling Alex Stalock as the backup last season, until it reached a breaking point and they decided to trade for James Reimer. Though Dell has the experience, he has not proven himself at the NHL, nor has he dominated in the minors like he did in college. If he was to be eased into the NHL, he might gradually find success. However, if Jones hits a sophomore slump and Dell is thrust into high pressure situations, he is likely to fail.
In house, there are no solutions to the Sharks goaltending problem. If Jones struggles they need a reliable veteran backup who can handle a workload and important starts. If Jones doesn’t struggle, they could still use a reliable veteran backup. After playing in 65 regular season games and 24 playoff games in 2015-16, Jones is deserving of some more off-days this season. Dell simply may not be good enough to make all of the starts needed of him. Right now, Dell is “penciled in” as the backup, but unless the Sharks can make a big trade or savvy signing, it may as well be permanent marker. Troy Grosenick, a Union College grad who backed up Dell with the Barracuda in 2015-16, has a brutal .894 save percentage and 3.16 GAA in 28 AHL games last year and is not even a consideration at this point. Mantas Armalis, a 24-year-old Lithuanian goalie who the Sharks signed this off-season from Djurgardens of the Swedish Elite League, has upside, but is hardly ready for any NHL action this year.
That leaves the Sharks one choice to solve their goalie issues: acquisition. Whether it is signing a goalie to a short-term deal or PTO before training camp starts, or waiting for a goalie market to develop once the season begins, San Jose will have to make a move or else stand by their risky Jones-Dell tandem. Veterans available as of right now include Karri Ramo, Anders Lindback, Ray Emery, and Michael Leighton, while some younger, but riskier options like Joni Ortio and Kevin Poulin could also be had. Of all of these, Calgary castoffs Ramo and Ortio represent the best options. Although neither had a strong 2015-16 campaign, they did make a significant number of starts and are used to facing NHL, and even Western Conference, competition. Both goalies are prime candidates to soon bolt overseas though, and a signing would need to happen soon for the Sharks. If they miss out, or simply don’t trust any of the available free agents, they face a more difficult task in finding a trade. San Jose is projected to have less than $1MM in cap space at the start of the season, meaning that acquiring an expensive backup on the trading block like the Red Wings’ Jimmy Howard or either of Dallas’ disappointing tandem of Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen would have to involve significant salary leaving the Sharks. More affordable targets like Michael Hutchinson, J-F Berube, Mike Condon, or Curtis McElhinney could be the solution, but only if they are available at the right price. There is no easy answer for this scenario, and it may go unsolved as a result, and that is why San Jose certainly has a goalie conundrum on their hands.