Poll: Biggest Surprise Among Non-Qualified Free Agents?
When the deadline to issue qualifying offers to restricted free agents comes and goes each year, there are always a few surprises on the list of those who did not receive an offer. For both those players and teams across the league, it can often be a shock that those players are suddenly unrestricted free agents able to sign with whoever they like. Oftentimes, not receiving a qualifying offer does not automatically mean that the player and his team are through. Already this year, defensemen Derrick Pouliot, Ryan Murphy, and Joe Morrow and forwards Riley Sheahan and Phil Di Giuseppe were not tendered an offer, but soon after signed with their respective squads. Yet, this year has also left more notable names than usual to be scooped up by another team come July 1st.
Robin Lehner, the 26-year-old starting goaltender for the Buffalo Sabres, was one of the earliest known players to not be qualified. Whenever a starter hits the open market it can draw attention, but it’s much more surprising when that starter is both young and experienced. Lehner has seen regular NHL action for the past five years, some as a backup or “1B” with the Ottawa Senators and others as the “1A” for Buffalo. Granted, Lehner has had his fair share of difficulties, both staying healthy and performing when he is on the ice, but it came as surprise that the rebuilding Sabres were so willing to move on from their young keeper. In each of his first two seasons in Buffalo, Lehner posted a save percentage of .920 or better and a majority of his appearances were quality starts. Only this season did those numbers drop off, but apparently that was enough for Buffalo to cut him loose. With Chad Johnson also a free agent, the Sabres head into the off-season lacking any true NHL-caliber goalies on the roster.
Anthony Duclair, just 22 and a former 20-goal scorer, was another surprise that many did not see coming. In his sophomore season in the NHL in 2015-16, the 20-year-old Duclair played in 81 games for the Arizona Coyotes and registered 44 points, good enough for fourth on the team. The young winger even garnered Calder Trophy votes. However, last season his play fell off substantially and this year was only marginally better, prompting a mid-season trade to the Chicago Blackhawks. Many opined that a change of scenery would be good for Duclair, who has shown great talent but needs to put it all together on a more consistent basis. Yet, Chicago gave the experiment 23 games before deciding to move on. A team with major cap problems who is always in need of affordable scoring let a young goal-scorer with years left of team control remaining walk in free agency after less than half a season.
Tobias Rieder, a 25-year-old two-way forward, found himself in a similar situation. Rieder was traded to the Los Angeles Kings ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline and played well in his limited role down the stretch for the Kings. However, it wasn’t enough as Rieder was curiously non-qualified after just 20 regular season games in L.A. Before that, the well-rounded forward had played a major role in the forward corps of the Arizona Coyotes. Rieder has recorded more than 20 points in each of his four NHL seasons and has been a double-digit scorer in each year as well. The young German winger plays a smart, physical style and has an innate ability to crash the net and light the lamp. At 25, he still has room to grow and has 20-goal potential in the right situation. The Kings passed up a chance to take a longer look at what Rieder can do and, of course, have scoring winger as their biggest need this summer.
Dylan DeMelo, the 25-year-old defenseman most recently of the San Jose Sharks, is a hard one to understand as well. DeMelo seemingly did everything he was asked of in San Jose, but found himself a free agent anyway. DeMelo had worked to carve out a role for himself with the Sharks in his first two seasons with the team, but in 2017-18 seemed to have found his place. The young defender skated in 63 games and set a new career high in points by a wide margin with 20. While DeMelo is not an offensive juggernaut by any means, he is solid defensively and was a nice complement on the blue line to the many other talented defenders in San Jose. Even if the Sharks were worried about committing too much money to defense or wanted to give some more time to other even younger options, it is hard to imagine that they couldn’t have found a taker for DeMelo on the trade market.
What do you think? Who is the biggest surprise among the RFA’s that did not receive qualifying offers this year and now find themselves looking for a new team this summer as a UFA?
Biggest Surprise Non-Qualified Free Agent?
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Anthony Duclair 44% (540)
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Robin Lehner 22% (264)
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Dylan DeMelo 13% (158)
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Tobias Rieder 13% (154)
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Other - Shore, Nordstrom, Yakupov, Carr, Davidson, Claesson, Mrazek, Kuhnhackl (comment below) 9% (108)
Total votes: 1,224
Mobile users, click here to vote.
Free Agent Focus: San Jose Sharks
Free agency is now just days from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of San Jose’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Tomas Hertl – The 24-year-old is coming off of a nice bounce-back season that saw him set a new career high in goals (22) while equalling his best point total (46). He also did so while spending a significant amount of time at center. All of these will certainly help his arbitration-eligible case as he comes off of his bridge deal that saw him receive a $3.2MM qualifying offer by the deadline back on Monday.
With them getting Mikkel Boedker and his $4MM off the books, they’re widely expected to be involved in the free agent and trade market. How they fare will likely dictate whether they go with a long-term deal for Hertl or a one-year pact to save on the cap hit a little bit. Based on comparable contracts, a long-term pact is likely to check in around $5MM while the one-year deal would be closer to $4MM.
F Chris Tierney – Tierney’s emergence as a legitimate secondary scorer largely went under the radar in 2017-18. After putting up a combined 43 points in the previous two seasons, the soon-to-be 24-year-old tallied 40 points (17-23-40) while doing so for not much above the league minimum. That’s going to change this summer as he is eligible for arbitration and he’s going to have a case to push for an AAV around the $3MM range, assuming they work out a multi-year deal. After being viewed as a depth piece, Tierney now factors in as their third line center for the foreseeable future.
Other RFAs: None
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: F Joe Thornton – 2017-18 wasn’t a great year for the veteran. Thornton suffered a knee injury in late January that kept him out of the lineup for the remainder of the season and playoffs. However, he was still relatively healthy as he posted a respectable 36 points in 47 games while notching his best goals per game average (0.28) since 2008-09. He may be slowing down but he can still play a top-six role.
The expectation is that the soon-to-be 39-year-old will ultimately re-sign in San Jose. The question is for how much his one-year deal will be. He’s coming off an $8MM salary but with him missing so much time, he’s not going to get that high of a guarantee this time around. Part of his next salary will be determined by what else the team does this summer but it wouldn’t be surprising if his deal is more bonus-laden this time around to hedge against further injury woes.
Other UFAs: D Dylan DeMelo, F Eric Fehr, F Jannik Hansen, F Brandon Mashinter, F Joel Ward
Projected Cap Space: The Sharks find themselves with just under $19MM to work with this summer per CapFriendly. While re-signing their own players will take a big chunk out of that, they should have enough room left to be suitors for the top players in free agency and in the trade market. They’re going to be heard from over the next few days.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Final Group Of Six Will Wait For Decision From John Tavares
The free agent interview period is supposed to drum up intrigue around dozens of names that will undoubtedly change teams on July 1st, but all eyes this year have been on pitch meetings taking place at the CAA headquarters in Los Angeles. Those meetings are meant to woo John Tavares, who would arguably be the best free agent to ever hit the market in the salary cap era. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tavares’ current team the New York Islanders presented on Monday, with the Boston Bruins and San Jose Sharks meeting with the superstar center and his representatives on Tuesday. Wednesday is blocked off for the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning, after which, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Tavares will shut down all communication with other teams. There were previous reports that some teams, namely the Vegas Golden Knights and Nashville Predators, were in the running through phone conversations, but that doesn’t appear to be the case any longer.
So six teams—New York, Toronto, Boston, San Jose, Dallas and Tampa Bay—will wait patiently tonight after Tavares hears the final pitches, and await word of whether he’ll be leaving for a new address this summer. The Islanders of course are the only team that can offer Tavares an eight-year deal, and the other teams are not currently allowed to discuss contract details, only express interest. If Tavares reaches Sunday without a contract, the Islanders lose their advantage and become like any other team able to sign him to seven years. Should that happen, it seems unlikely that he’d be heading back to the Islanders, meaning the countdown is on for New York.
Of course there are different strengths and weaknesses from each market, and TSN has released a calculator to show off the differences surrounding state (or provincial) taxes. The Lightning and Stars have a huge advantage in this way, though it is obviously not the only determining factor. Even with a no-movement clause, there is no guarantee that a player spends his whole career in a certain state, meaning there likely won’t be any discounts for the teams which have the best tax rates.
Joe Thornton Still Expected To Re-Sign In San Jose
The San Jose Sharks have cleared quite a bit of cap room in the recent weeks, and with that are expected to be big players in free agency. They have been confirmed as one of the teams granted a sit down meeting with John Tavares this week, and are considered by some to be the front runner if the superstar center decides to leave the New York Islanders. Even if they do land a big fish on the open market though, the team is still expected to re-sign veteran center Joe Thornton for at least one more year. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that there is “no hurry” to get Thornton’s contract signed, and it will be dependent on what else the Sharks do. That’s a nice luxury for GM Doug Wilson to have, especially given the relatively thin market at center among free agents.
Thornton will turn 39 on July 2nd, is coming off another major knee injury, and played just 47 games last season. That said, when healthy he was still a dominant playmaking force and can still help any team in the league. If the Sharks can get him on a final team-friendly contract, he could become one of the most valuable assets around the league. Last season’s $8MM cap hit will surely come down significantly, and it will likely be just for one season if he stays in San Jose.
If Tavares or another free agent center comes to the Sharks over the next few days, Thornton would likely be pushed down the lineup. The team has plenty of options at center already, but is committed to improving their club this summer and taking another run at the Stanley Cup. Many believe Logan Couture will be extended quickly once he’s eligible next week, but the core of the team isn’t getting any younger. Joe Pavelski will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, while Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are both signed deep into their thirties. The time to win is now in San Jose, and Thornton clearly wants to be a part of it.
More Than Five Teams Still In The Mix For John Tavares
Though we’d heard reports about several teams that were expected to get meetings with superstar free agent John Tavares, the entire situation wasn’t clear. Now, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic and Darren Dreger of TSN report at nearly the same moment that the Dallas Stars, Boston Bruins, San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning all have sit down meetings scheduled over the next few days, while two or three other teams will have discussions over the phone. LeBrun notes that those phone conversations could turn into face-to-face meetings, while the Islanders obviously remain in the mix for their captain.
Interestingly, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that the Montreal Canadiens attempted to get a meeting with Tavares, but were refused. The Canadiens are not part of the current discussions.
Tavares would arguably be the best unrestricted free agent to hit the market in the salary cap era if he remains unsigned on July 1st, but it’s not like that is a guarantee at this point. In fact, it may still be incredibly unlikely for the 27-year old center to leave the Islanders but after waiting this long it made sense to at least listen to the other offers. We saw this same song and dance two years ago with Steven Stamkos, before the Tampa Bay Lightning—or perhaps an overt-the-top pitch from another team—eventually convinced their captain to stay put.
We’ve already seen John Carlson, the consensus second-best pending free agent re-sign with the Washington Capitals for huge money, and Tavares could be next. If he does end up staying in New York, it would mean only good things for Paul Stastny who would likely become the next best option by default. Tyler Bozak, Derek Ryan and others are also available at center, but Stastny would be the only real prize left down the middle. If the rest of the NHL is closely watching the meetings in Los Angeles, Stastny may be camped outside the CAA offices waiting for his big opportunity.
Snapshots: Karlsson, Thornton, Talbot, Brodziak
While the free agent market is slimming more and more after John Carlson opted to re-sign with the Washington Capitals, the trade market has barely gotten active as teams wait to see how the free agent market shakes out. Regardless that could change in the next few days. While there were a few trades this weekend during the draft, one name that stayed put is Ottawa Senators’ defenseman Erik Karlsson.
According to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, general manager Pierre Dorion was fielding phone calls all the way up to the Senators picked at No. 4, but still hasn’t found the right deal as he’s looking for a big haul of players and picks considering that Karlsson is a franchise player.
As expected, Garrioch writes that the Vegas Golden Knights were at the forefront in trying to make a deal and Vegas was prepared to take the contract of Bobby Ryan, who still has four years at $7.25MM AAV remaining on his contract, but other teams are also trying to get into the Karlsson sweepstakes, including the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks and the Washington Capitals. No word on whether the other teams are willing to take on Ryan’s contract. While the Capitals are likely out of the running now that they’ve signed Carlson, the Carlson signing may force other teams to press harder to acquire Karlsson.
- David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports that there is mutual interest between Joe Thornton and the San Jose Sharks to return to the team, regardless of whether the team signs John Tavares or not. Thornton, who suffered a season-ending torn MCL in January, would have to come back at a lower salary than the $8MM he made last year, but at 38 years old, he can still be a productive player even if he is forced to play on a lower line. Thornton put up 13 goals and 23 assists in 47 games, but “Jumbo Joe” is well past the days of putting up 82 points in 2015-16.
- Pagnotta also commented on Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot as he says both the Oilers and Talbot have agreed to hold off on extension talks until the start of the new season. The 30-year-old Talbot had been a major piece to the team’s success up until this past year. After posting 2.39 GAA and a .919 save percentage two years ago, he struggled this season, posting a 3.02 GAA and a .908 save percentage. The team likely wants to ensure that Talbot bounces back to form before offering him an extension.
- Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic writes that the St. Louis Blues and center Kyle Brodziak both have interest in an extension. The 34-year-old center put up his best season since 2011-12 as a fourth-line center. He tallied 10 goals and 33 points last season. While the Blues have bigger concerns at the moment, Rutherford points out that neither party is in a big rush.
Tavares Notes: Toronto, San Jose, Boston
While reports suggest that John Tavares and his representation are speaking to five teams in Los Angeles, there is some confusion of which teams Tavares’ camp is speaking to. It was reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars are three teams that are definitely meeting with him, while other teams such as Vegas and Tampa Bay have been suggested as possibilities.
The Maple Leafs have been interested in signing Tavares for a long time, years in fact. However, with the state of their salary cap in the coming years with contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander on the books, there are a lot of questions whether the Maple Leafs are really true candidates to bring Tavares on board, especially after the team splurged a season ago when they pried Patrick Marleau away from San Jose.
The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) writes that trying to add a contract that at the moment is linked at $11MM per year for Tavares (possibly $12MM) might be challenging, but not totally impossible. Unlike two years ago, when they tried to sign Steven Stamkos when they were a struggling franchise, things are much different. For one, Tavares gets to come home, he can immediate play for a top team which has a legitimate chance to win a Stanley Cup, and lots of cap space in the first year of a contract, which is where the discussion ends.
Mirtle suggests one rumor that has been going around for week is to offer Tavares a one-year max deal, which would be worth $15.9MM. Then the team could attempt to lock him up to an eight-year deal after that. However, that could also be construed as cap circumvention as well as dangerous if Tavares gets injured in that first year. Another offer Toronto could add to the package is the captaincy, but that would also be an issue considering that Matthews has been in line for that role.
- David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period confirms that the San Jose Sharks were the second team to speak with Tavares and his representatives. He writes that the Sharks are all-in on Tavares and the entire organization is on board to bring Tavares in. With more than $18MM in cap space, the Sharks have the money even after locking up winger Evander Kane to a seven-year, $49MM extension last month. With their defense and goaltending, alongside Tavares, Kane, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski as well as a bunch of talented younger players that are ready to break out, the Sharks would look like a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
- Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that while there is no word yet, the scribe gets the sense that the Boston Bruins haven’t been told yet whether they are one of the five teams that Tavares will meet with, but Boston definitely wants a meeting with the center. Boston has almost $12MM of cap space available and a team that is full of both veterans and young stars in which the addition of Tavares could take them to that Stanley Cup level as well.
Metropolitan Notes: Tavares, Hamilton, Rask, Rangers
In a follow-up story about New York Islanders and John Tavares upcoming free agency, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple (subscription required) writes that the Islanders’ Lou Lamoriello left the draft to fly to Los Angeles to be nearby while Tavares meets with the teams that he and his representatives have invited to speak with him. Lamoriello will meet with Tavares last in hopes of keeping the superstar in the fold.
As reported earlier, it is believed that he will meet with the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks, and Dallas Stars and possibly the Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and the Montreal Canadiens, although that isn’t too clear so far. However, Staples writes that an earlier rumor today that the Islanders made an eight-year, $88MM deal may not be accurate. He believes in the end, whether offered by the Islanders or another team, that Tavares will be making $12MM per year, which Lamoriello has said that ownership has said that money is no object.
- Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported that the Carolina Hurricanes intend to keep defenseman Dougie Hamilton, who the team acquired in the five-player trade earlier today. The scribe said the team had no intention of flipping the blueliner for more assets. Hamilton should provide the team with a No. 1 defenseman to go with their core of young blueliners. The six-year veteran is only just 25 years old and put up 17 goals and 44 points last season.
- Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Carolina Hurricanes were supposedly close on sending winger Victor Rask to the Montreal Canadiens, but the asking price of two second-round picks in this draft (including the No. 35 pick) was too much for the Canadiens. The 25-year-old winger still has four years at $4MM AAV and seems to have regressed somewhat since a 21 goal season back in 2015-16.
- The New York Rangers had three first-round picks in this latest draft with much speculation wondering if general manager Jeff Gorton would use those picks as assets to either acquire a pro-ready player or even to move up in the draft. Instead, the Rangers used all three picks (albeit, they traded up late in the first-round). NHL.com’s Dan Rosen reports that Gorton said he was never close to making a deal this weekend. Gorton said he was ready to change his draft strategy if he got a trade offer he liked, but never got one. “I would say there was probably less conversations than I anticipated,” Gorton said.
2018 Draft Results By Team
The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is now complete. Check out how each team did with accruing talent and filling needs with each of their selections this weekend:
Anaheim Ducks
1-23. F Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL)
2-54. F Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
3-79. F Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL)
3-84. G Lukas Dostal, HC Kometa Brno (Czech Republic-Jr.)
4-116. F Jack Perbix, Elk River HS (USHS)
5-147. G Roman Durny, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
6-178. D Hunter Drew, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)
Arizona Coyotes
1-5. F Barrett Hayton, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
2-55. D Kevin Bahl, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)
3-65. F Jan Jenik, HC Benatky nad Jizerou (Czech Republic-2)
3-73. D Ty Emberson, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
4-114. G Ivan Prosvetov, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
5-142. D Mitchell Callahan, Central Illinois Flying Aces (USHL)
5-145. D Dennis Busby, Flint Firebirds (OHL)
6-158. G David Tendeck, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
7-189. F Liam Kirk, Sheffield Steelers (England)
Boston Bruins
2-57. D Axel Andersson, Djurgardens IF (SuperElit)
3-77. F Jakub Lauko, Pirati Chomutov (Czech Republic)
4-119. F Curtis Hall, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
6-181. D Dustyn McFaul, Pickering Panthers (OJHL)
7-212. F Pavel Shen, Mamonty Yugry (MHL)
Buffalo Sabres
1-1. D Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda HC (SHL)
2-32. D Mattias Samuelsson, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
4-94. F Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
4-117. D Linus Lindstrand Kronholm, Malmo Redhawks (SuperElit)
5-125. D Miska Kuukonen, Ilves (Jr.-Liiga)
7-187. D William Worge Kreu, Linkoping (SuperElit)
Calgary Flames
3-105. F Martin Pospisil, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
3-108. F Demetrios Koumontzis, Edina HS (USHS)
4-122. F Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
6-167. F Mathias Emilio Pettersen, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
7-198. F Dmitri Zavgorodny, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)
Carolina Hurricanes
1-2. F Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL)
2-42. F Jack Drury, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL)
4-96. F Luke Henman, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
4-104. F Lenni Killinen, Espoo Blues (Jr.-Liiga)
6-166. D Jesper Sellgren, MODO (Allsveskan)
7-197. G Jake Kucharski, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Chicago Blackhawks
1-8. D Adam Boqvist, Brynas IF Gavle (SHL)
1-27. D Nicolas Beaudin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)
3-69. F Jake Wise, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
3-74. F Niklas Nordgren, HIFK Helsinki (Jr.-Liiga)
4-120. F Philipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)
5-139. F Mikael Hakkarainen, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
6-162. G Alexis Gravel, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
7-193. F Josiah Slavin, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
Colorado Avalanche
1-16. F Martin Kaut, Dynamo Pardubice (Czech Republic)
3-64. G Justus Annunen, Karpat (Jr.-Liiga)
3-78. F Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
4-109. F Tyler Weiss, U.S. National Development Program (USHL)
5-140. F Brandon Saigeon, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)
5-146. D Danila Zhuravlyov, Irbis Kazan (MHL)
6-171. F Nikolai Kovalenko, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (MHL)
7-202. G Shamil Shmakov, Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk (MHL)Read more
Sharks To Buy Out Paul Martin
The Sharks announced that they have placed defenseman Paul Martin on waivers for the purposes of buying out the remainder of his contract. GM Doug Wilson issued the following statement regarding the move:
“Paul Martin has been the utmost professional on and off the ice during his three years in San Jose. His leadership, character and on-ice contributions have been essential to our success and in reaching the 2016 Stanley Cup Final. The impact he has had on our organization, his teammates and many of our younger players will be felt for many years to come.”
The 37-year-old has spent the past three seasons in San Jose and played an important role in their trip to the Stanley Cup Final back in 2015-16. However, his effectiveness and role were reduced in recent years to the point where he cleared waivers this past season and played in more games in the minors (18) during the regular season than he did in the NHL (14). Martin was brought back up late in the season and while he played a sparing role on the third pairing, he did get into seven postseason contests but even with that, being bought out was still the expected outcome.
Martin had one year left on his deal with a $4.85MM cap hit and a $4.25MM salary. Assuming he clears waivers on Saturday, the Sharks will instead carry a $2.017MM cap charge in 2018-19 and a $1.417MM hit in 2019-20. The roughly $2.8MM in savings will give San Jose nearly $19MM in cap room to play with this summer which will make them a team to watch for in free agency which kicks off next Sunday.