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Latest On Erik Karlsson’s Pending Free Agency

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When Erik Karlsson’s postseason came to an end and he posted a thank you note on Twitter to the entire Bay Area, hockey fans immediately tried to determine what it meant in regards to his pending free agency. Was Karlsson saying goodbye to the San Jose Sharks after just one season? When rumors surfaced about the Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, it seemed like the star defenseman might be heading back to the Eastern Conference. Not if Sharks GM Doug Wilson has anything to say about it. Both Kevin Kurz of The Athletic (subscription required) and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet have reported in recent days that the Sharks are working hard to re-sign the right-handed defenseman, with a contract similar to Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM deal on the table.

Friedman notes that the team will need a decision soon as they prepare for the rest of their summer, but Karlsson is now just a few days away from the free agent interview period. Even if he does want to hear out other teams however, a contract of that magnitude may be too hard to turn down. Karlsson’s recent injury history may have reduced the number of teams willing to offer him such a lucrative contract, and San Jose is the only team that can give him that elusive eighth year.

Karlsson recently underwent groin surgery but is expected to recover fully by the start of the 2019-20 season, an announcement that was made by the Sharks earlier this month. San Jose will obviously have the best medical insight of any team, and if they are willing to hand over that kind of salary they must truly believe he can get back to full strength.

Even if he can get close to it, the team would have a game-changing talent on their hands. Though his injury history and dramatic fallout in Ottawa have clouded his career recently, it’s important to remember just how dominant Karlsson has been throughout his career. A four-time Norris Trophy finalist—twice won—he has routinely cracked the 70-point mark and was on that kind of a pace in his shortened 2018-19 season. Even while playing injured during the postseason he recorded 16 points in 19 games for the Sharks, lifting his career playoff totals to 53 in 67 games. It’s almost impossible to find that kind of offensive contribution from the blue line, but amazingly the Sharks already have Brent Burns capable of the same thing.

Still, a contract like that would have ramifications on the Sharks’ lineup. It would mean committing somewhere around $26MM to three defensemen, two of which are already well into their thirties but still under contract for at least another six years. It would mean a huge part of the ~$25MM in cap space the team currently has would be eaten up, a number that also needs to accommodate new contracts for Kevin Labanc, Timo Meier and Joakim Ryan while also leaving room to re-sign Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski if the team chooses.

If the Sharks aren’t able to make a deal, it will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for Karlsson and whether or not it costs him in the long run to wait and listen. The free agent interview period will start on June 23rd.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Sharks, Avalanche

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GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets knew what they were getting into when they held on to top impending free agents Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovksy, despite substantial hints that both planned to depart, and then went out and added another valued UFA in Matt Duchene at the NHL Trade Deadline. Columbus went all in, and while they didn’t win or even reach the Stanley Cup, they did succeed in winning the franchise’s first ever playoff round. Now, as they get set to potentially watch several star player walk away as free agents, Kekalainen and company are going to either squeeze every last drop out of those UFA’s or at least won’t make it any easier for them to jump to rival teams. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Blue Jackets have declined to give Panarin and Bobrovksy permission to talk to other teams about a sign-and-trade possibility. They have also kept the price of acquiring their negotiating rights high; LeBrun speculates the team is asking for a second-round pick. As the June 23rd UFA negotiation period approaches, and not long after it the start of free agency on July 1st, it seems Panarin and Bobrovsky are likely to remain Blue Jackets until the very last minute, unless a team ponies up. As for Duchene, the Blue Jackets remain interested in re-signing him, so similar rumors haven’t started yet, but don’t expect the deadline addition to be treated any differently if it comes to that.

  • Columbus has likely lost hope of re-signing their top free agents, but San Jose is still holding out when it comes to Erik Karlsson. Karlsson is set to be the top defenseman on the market, but the Sharks would like him to skip that opportunity in favor of remaining with the team. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz writes that the two sides continue to work on an extension, with terms rumored to be close to the eight-year, $88MM contract signed by Drew Doughty of the rival Los Angeles Kings. Barring a trade in the coming weeks, only San Jose can offer Karlsson that eighth year, which may be even more valuable to the veteran defenseman given his recurring injury issues this season. Kurz agrees that the market may have cooled for Karlsson, so a long-term offer from the Sharks will very likely be the best deal he gets. This makes his decision less about salary and more about whether San Jose is where Karlsson wants to potentially spend the rest of his career.
  • Misinformation is very common in draft and free agency season, so it should come as little surprise that one Denver source says the Avalanche are interested in drafting defenseman Bowen Byram just days after another said they weren’t. Byram is undoubtedly the best defenseman in the draft class, so no team with the chance to draft him is going to totally ignore him. The WHL product could go as early as No. 3 to the Chicago Blackhawks, but likely won’t get any farther than No. 6 to the Detroit Red Wings. Colorado falls squarely in the middle there at fourth overall and will surely consider Byram. But if Mike Chambers of The Denver Post is to be believed, the Avs will take the “best player available” route with their first of two first-round picks and would select Byram if he’s there. We won’t know for sure how it all plays out for just over one more week.

Competition Committee Submits Rules Recommendations

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The NHL and NHLPA released a joint statement this evening outlining the changes recommended by the Competition Committee, which wrapped meetings today. The players’ side, led by NHLPA Special Assistant Mathieu Schneider, included Ron Hainsey, Connor Hellebuyck, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, and James van Riemsdyk. The league side, led by NHL Senior Vice President of Hockey Opertations Colin Campbell, included Craig Leipold, David Poile, Ken Holland, Doug Wilson, and Steve Yzerman. Together, the group came up with some intriguing ideas for consideration.

The most notable suggestion, as well as the most expected one, was expanded access to video review and coach’s challenges. Few details were disclosed as to the specifics of expanded review, other than allowing referees to use video review to review calls on the ice. However, after a postseason in which incorrect calls has drawn so much media scrutiny, it’s fair to assume that changes are coming to review procedures to help remedy that situation.

Another suggested rule change bound to draw some attention is a change to the the tie-breaking procedures used to determine final regular season rankings. While the joint release did not outline the proposed changes, Sportsnet’s Elliott Friedman believes that the preference of the Competition Committee is to use simply regulation wins rather than “ROT”, regulation and overtime wins, as the primary tie-breaker. If adopted, this rule change could very well see more teams looking to end games in regular time as opposed to playing for overtime, especially late in the season in a tight playoff race.

Other suggestions included changes to face-off locations based on icing, pucks out of bounds, power plays, intentionally knocking the net over, and goalies unnecessarily freezing the puck, as well as a rule that would require players to leave the ice if their helmet is knocked off during play.

These rules suggestions still need to be approved by both the NHL’s Board of Governors and the NHLPA’s Executive Board, and many of the proposed changes will require more detailed presentations, as well as considerable discussion. After suggestions are adopted, the language will be formalized and they will officially be indoctrinated into the NHL rule book. Stay tuned for further updates on these possible rule changes when these governing bodies meet later this summer.

Avalanche Notes: Hayes, No. 4 Pick, Knight

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The Colorado Avalanche made history on this day in 1996, winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season after moving to Denver. The eight-seed Avs came surprisingly close to getting back the Cup Final this year, upsetting the Calgary Flames in the first round and taking the San Jose Sharks to Game Seven in the second round. Colorado is closer to being a legitimate contender than some may have thought and are hoping to add some veteran pieces this off-season to improve their odds. GM Joe Sakic, a member of that ’96 team, is planning to be aggressive this summer, but his plan took an unexpected early hit when the Philadelphia Flyers acquired the negotiating rights of Kevin Hayes, expected to be one of Colorado’s top targets.

However, it’s already been a week since that trade was made and the Flyers and Hayes have not come to terms on a new contract. Talks are still reportedly progressing, but there’s less certainty that Hayes will end up signing with the team. In fact, BSN Denver’s AJ Haefele states that talks may not be going as well as Philadelphia would like fans to think, after surrendering a draft pick for the right to negotiate with Hayes. Haefele says that “things with Hayes and Philly haven’t really gone great so far”, adding that there’s still optimism but the clock is ticking toward the opening of free agency. If Hayes doesn’t come to terms with the Flyers and hits the open market, the Avalanche would have to be considered the favorite to land the two-way center given the many sources that have linked the two sides.

  • Haefele had another intriguing note for Avs fans tonight regarding the first of the team’s two first round picks, the No. 4 overall selection. Haefele believes, based on discussions with several sources, that Colorado will be targeting a forward with the pick, and that’s regardless of whether or not Bowen Byram is available. Byram, the top defenseman in the draft by a wide margin, is considered by many to perhaps be the third-best prospect overall. However, given the considerable draft capital that the Chicago Blackhawks have used on defensemen in recent years, they may pass on Byram at No. 3. It seems the Avalanche would do the same, opting to focus on their need for secondary scoring rather than adding a top young defenseman, with Cale Makar and Conor Timmins already in the fold. This should come as good new for the Los Angeles Kings, who could desperately use a blue chip defensive prospect. As for the Avs, Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, and Kirby Dach are among the top forward prospects who could be available in this scenario.
  • There were clues to Colorado’s focus on a forward with their first pick before Haefele’s report, too. The team was curiously one of the few not to interview a number of projected late first-round forwards at the NHL Scouting Combine, leading many to assume that they would target a forward early and look elsewhere with their second pick, No. 16. The other explanation is that the Avalanche have already zeroed in one one specific player for that slot: top goaltender Spencer Knight. Although many are in agreement that Knight is a first-round caliber goalie, it’s easier for a team to stomach selecting a keeper that early if they have two picks in the round. Colorado is just one of five teams to pick twice in the first round this year, but they are the first team to use their second pick. Barring an unforeseen selection by a lottery team, the Avs could get ahead of the rest of the pack by selecting Knight at No. 16 and adding their goalie of the future. This is far from a guarantee, but certainly an idea that carries some merit.

Sharks, Joe Pavelski Have Had "A Little Bit Of"Talks" On A New Contract

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Following their elimination at the hands of St. Louis last round, Sharks center Joe Pavelski indicated that there hadn’t been a lot of discussion regarding a new contract.  That has changed over the last couple of weeks.  He told Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News that there has been “a little bit of talks” and he remains optimistic that he’ll work out a deal to stay in San Jose.  The 34-year-old had a big year offensively with 38 goals, tied for the second most in his career.  That will certainly generate a lot of interest on the open market if he can’t come to terms to remain with the only NHL team he has ever known.  Pavelski made $6MM this past season and should be able to garner more than that on his next deal.

Erik Karlsson Undergoes Surgery

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Despite not having a contract with the team for next season, the San Jose Sharks have announced that Erik Karlsson underwent successful surgery on a groin injury. Karlsson is expected to recover fully in time for 2019-20.

The star defenseman was forced to miss a do-or-die game six against the St. Louis Blues in the Western Conference Final due to this injury, which hampered him for much of the 2018-19 season. Karlsson ended up playing just 53 games for the Sharks after they acquired him from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a huge package of assets, and while he did record 45 points during that time he couldn’t be the difference maker they were hoping for when it mattered the most given his injury.

This injury has also caused some to question what Karlsson’s free agent market will be. While he is still one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, the 29-year old has now dealt with multiple major injuries over the last few years and poses plenty of risk going forward. Even if he is ready to start the season on time, there is no guarantee he comes back with quite as much dominance as he has shown in the past. With teams likely having to commit close to, or even above $10MM per season on a long-term deal to secure his services, that uncertainty could cause some to pause.

In the Sharks’ case specifically, they should know better than anyone if Karlsson can return to form. The team has expressed an interest to re-sign him in the past, though would have to give up another asset to Ottawa in the form of a second-round pick if they did. The team also has to consider the fact that they already have four players on the roster making at least $7MM per season for at least six more years, three of which are on the wrong side of thirty already. The team has plenty of cap space at the moment, but will have to prudently spend it if they want to stay where they are as contenders in the Western Conference.

Snapshots: Trade Bait, Free Agency, Canucks

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Despite the Stanley Cup Final still being at least two games from completion, trade news has exploded in recent days around the hockey world. Players like Jacob Trouba, Nikita Zaitsev and Phil Kessel are all expected to be moved at some point this summer, and Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the rest of the trade market is expected to be quite active. Custance breaks down his top-20 players who could be on the move, and includes Trouba right at the top after speaking with executives and scouts around the league.

There are other interesting notes in the list though, including the fact that the San Jose Sharks showed interest in New York Rangers forward Vladislav Namestnikov at the trade deadline before acquiring Gustav Nyquist. Namestnikov hasn’t quite found his touch with the Rangers since being part of the deal that sent Ryan McDonagh to Tampa Bay, and is heading into the final year before unrestricted free agency. The 26-year old has shown flashes of immense offensive potential in the past, but scored just 31 points in 78 games last season for the Rangers.

  • The Winnipeg Jets have re-opened talks with pending unrestricted free agent Tyler Myers according to Frank Seravalli of TSN. In his latest Free Agent Frenzy column, the scribe notes that with an understanding of the trade market for Trouba, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has circled back to Myers to see what it would take to bring him back to Winnipeg. The 28-year old defenseman still ranks seventh on the TSN free agent list, but could disappear entirely if the Jets are able to re-sign him before the interview process starts on June 23.
  • The same could be said about both Luke Schenn and Alexander Edler, who continue to discuss new contracts with the Vancouver Canucks according to GM Jim Benning on a Sportsnet radio appearance today. Benning also shot down any rumors that the team and RFA Brock Boeser are far apart on contract talks, noting that contract negotiations have “gone in the right direction.” The Canucks GM could not comment directly on the recent Zaitsev report, but is having lots of trade conversations to see if there is a way to improve the team.

Financial Flexibility Key To Sharks’ Offseason

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The San Jose Sharks went all-in this season. A team that was already strong enough to compete for the Stanley Cup decided to go out and acquire Erik Karlsson before the start of the season, sending a huge package of assets to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for the star defenseman. That came just a few months after the team had snatched Evander Kane at the 2018 trade deadline, which had already cost them a fair amount of draft capital. As if that wasn’t enough, they then went out at this year’s deadline and acquired Gustav Nyquist for another set of picks, leaving them with just one selection in the first four rounds this year and without their first and third picks next season.

That kind of shopping spree usually leaves a team with plenty of regret if they don’t end up winning it all. The Sharks, if you weren’t paying attention, didn’t win it all.

Still, as San Jose head into the offseason after another disappointing playoff loss, there is still hope. Despite having a relatively bare cupboard of draft picks, and three players on the roster making more than $8MM per season despite being on the wrong side of thirty, the Sharks have an incredible amount of flexibility this summer. That’s thanks to a whopping seven players reaching unrestricted free agency, allowing the team to pick and choose who they bring back and for how much.

Obviously, watching Karlsson walk after one year—or Nyquist after a few months—would be frustrating for the Sharks. The same could be said about long-time leaders in Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton, both of whom are also set to become unrestricted free agents. But within that potential frustration is also an opportunity, one which could result in the Sharks being just as competitive again next season, albeit with a different cast of characters.

Specifically, Karlsson and Nyquist come with more than just a monetary price tag. Both players will cost the team a second round pick if they re-sign, to Ottawa or Detroit respectively, as part of the conditions of their trades. That may end up being a deciding factor if GM Doug Wilson doesn’t want to lose any more of his already rare picks. Pavelski and Thornton meanwhile come with age and injury concerns, given how their last few seasons have gone. Both—and perhaps especially Pavelski—are still effective, but Wilson may have to make the hard decision of letting franchise icons leave, as he did with Patrick Marleau two years ago, if they demand too much money.

It’s that money question that is what makes this summer so interesting for the Sharks. CapFriendly currently projects San Jose to have nearly $25MM in cap space for next season, thanks to just 14 players in the entire organization with one-way contracts. Obviously the team will need to sign several players to fill their ranks, but they aren’t forced into anything at the moment. The next wave of on-ice leaders for the Sharks is  going to include players like Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier, but both are restricted free agents who can either be signed long-term or short depending on the rest of the offseason. Neither one has arbitration rights, meaning the team can take negotiations slow if they choose.

Like last offseason, when the Sharks made a pitch to top free agent John Tavares, Wilson can see what the prices are on some of the other top names before backing himself into a corner. Thornton has already said that he would only come back to play for San Jose, while it would be hard to see Pavelski running into the arms of another team without giving the Sharks every chance to match whatever offers come in.

There’s nothing good about having such a small selection of draft picks, but the Sharks have done so well over the last few years—Labanc, for instance is a sixth-round pick from 2014 who looks like he may be a 70-point scorer one day—they have enough built into the system to overcome this short lull. It’s free agency that will be really interesting for a team that can’t seem to get over the hump, and they have more than enough financial ammunition to make it a show.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Patrick Marleau, Toronto Maple Leafs Ready To Part Ways

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A rumor several days ago suggested that the Toronto Maple Leafs would like to move on from 39-year-old winger Patrick Marleau, who is coming off a disappointing season this past season. With Toronto’s general manager Kyle Dubas trying to balance multiple players and their contracts into the team’s already full salary cap, the team was expecting more out of Marleau, who posted his worst goal totals (16) since his rookie campaign back in the 1997-98 season.

While many have squashed the rumors that Toronto was trying to send him to the Los Angeles Kings Friday, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported late last night during a Headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada that Marleau would like to leave Toronto and would prefer to be moved to a west coast team:

It sounds like Marleau and the Maple Leafs are set to part ways. The family is going to move back to San Jose. Patrick Marleau has made it clear to the Toronto Maple Leafs that he’d like to get closer to his family once again, which means moving to the west coast area.

That could make Los Angeles a legitimate candidate, despite reports to the contrary. Kypreos also mentioned the Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes as other options for Marleau, while can you never totally rule out a return to San Jose. The original belief is that with a no-movement clause, the Maple Leafs might have had a challenging time finding a trade partner considering he could reject any offer, but it now looks like Marleau will be much more willing to move on from Toronto. Marleau, who will be wrapping up the final year of the three-year, $18.75MM deal he signed back in 2017, will make only make $4.25MM next season, but does carry a $6.25MM AAV. The Maple Leafs would likely have to attach a pick or prospect to any deal to unload Marleau’s contract and might even have to retain salary to make a deal work.

The Avalanche might be one of the best options for Toronto as Colorado should have more than $37MM in available cap space, although the team has a number of important restricted free agents they must re-sign, including winger Mikko Rantanen. However, Marleau could be a veteran presence the Avalanche wouldn’t mind adding for one season. The other teams would require sending another significant contract back to Toronto, perhaps one with a lower AAV, but longer term. The Kings would have to send back a contract and while they might be willing to move on from some players such as forwards Ilya Kovalchuk (two more years at $6.25MM), Dustin Brown (three more years at $5.875MM) or defenseman Dion Phaneuf (two more years at $5.25MM), none of whom would fulfill Dubas’ desire to free up salary cap space. Arizona, which is another team that must deal with salary cap issues starting this off-season, has a few cheaper options and could be an interesting option, including forward Michael Grabner (two more years at $3.35MM) or defenseman Jason Demers (two more years at $3.94MM).

Free Agent Focus: San Jose Sharks

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Free agency is now less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  San Jose should have one of the busiest off-seasons, as the team has multiple key free agents to sign or otherwise may have a completely new look next season.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Timo Meier – With so many questions concerning their unrestricted free agents this off-season, it might be easy to forget that the team must also find a new contract from one of their young stars and Meier should get quite the pay raise this year after making just $894K last season. Meier repaid the Sharks with his best season yet, scoring a career-high 30 goals and 66 points. He also posted 15 points in 20 playoff games. With the money that many restricted free agents have been getting over the past couple of years, Meier could be in for a giant payday, regardless of whether he signs a bridge deal or the team locks him up long-term.

F Kevin Labanc – It took quite a while for Labanc to work his way into San Jose’s veteran-laden lineup, but he has done quite a good job on the team’s third line and could be headed for a even larger role depending on how the off-season shakes out for the Sharks. Like Meier, Labanc has had season highs in both goals (17) and points (56) and would be a likely candidate to take a bridge deal in order to prove whether he can take his game up to another level and become a top-six option for them.

Other RFAs: D Michael Brodzinski, F Rourke Chartier, D Nick DeSimone, D Cody Donaghey, D Cavan Fitzgerald, F Dylan Gambrell, F Maxim Letunov, F Jonathon Martin, F Francis Perron, D Joakim Ryan, F Alex Schoenborn, F Antti Suomela, D Kyle Wood.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Erik Karlsson – Many people expected the Sharks to lock up Karlsson to a long-term deal at the trade deadline, but when that didn’t happen, there were many questions about whether he was willing to sign a deal with the Sharks at all, as well as many people who wondered whether Karlsson was worth a long-term deal considering his injury history. After all, the 29-year-old missed most of the second half of the season with a groin injury and even when he returned for the playoffs, he wasn’t fully healthy as he had trouble keeping up with the quicker opposing forwards. It looks more like Karlsson intends to test the open market and head to a team he would like to play for long-term or take the best offer that he can get. Will it be San Jose though?

F Joe Pavelski – The 34-year-old captain has been a key figure for the Sharks throughout his career, but so far there have been few talks of giving the veteran a new deal. While it’s hard to picture Pavelski heading elsewhere, the Sharks must factor in what a new contract for the soon-to-be 35-year-old would look like for the rest of their cap structure. Pavelski is coming off a unique 38-goal season, a number that he is unlikely to equal again, and with the difficulty of long-term deals for 35+ players, the team will likely want to avoid a multi-year deal that has a large AAV attached to it, meaning the club will have to hope that Pavelski isn’t going to be asking too much.

F – Joe Thornton – It’s unlikely the team is worried about money when it comes to Thornton, as the team will bring him back on a one-year deal at a reasonable cost (he signed for one year and $5MM last offseason). However, the real question is whether Thornton is ready to call it quits. Thornton will turn 40 in July and didn’t make it clear during locker clean-out day that he will definitely return next season. He wants time to think about it.

Other UFAs: F Tim Clifton, F Joonas Donskoi, F Micheal Haley, D Tim Heed, F Gustav Nyquist.

Projected Cap Space: With a little over $58MM committed to 15 players for next season per CapFriendly, the Sharks should have some cap room to work with despite a number of high profile free agents this off-season. The team must try to bring back Karlsson and Pavelski, while trying to get reasonable deals in place for Meier and Labanc. While they may have to wait for a Thornton decision, they do have other important free agents they must consider for a deal as well, such as Donskoi and Nyquist. If all of these impending free agents are interested in a return, San Jose may be forced to move someone else with cap space at a premium. Regardless, the team may have to rely even more on younger players to fill holes in the bottom of their lineup next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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