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Buffalo Sabres Limited By Salary Cap Floor

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The Buffalo Sabres will be over the NHL’s salary cap floor by the start of the season, that much is obvious. While CapFriendly currently has the club sitting $2.3MM below the $60.2MM benchmark, that is with a 22-man roster that does not include unsigned RFA defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. While the 2018 first overall pick is not quite yet proven himself worthy of the considerable long-term deals signed by other top defenseman this off-season, he will surely make more than $2.3MM AAV on his next contract.

Yet, that does not end the Sabres’ battle with the cap floor. Just because they begin the season over the floor, does not mean that they will remain as such all season – or at least not if they wish to have flexibility with their transactions. Buffalo is again expected to be among the NHL’s worst teams this season and will be open to selling current members of the roster. Of course, Jack Eichel is the biggest name who could be available. However, at $10MM AAV it has been brought up numerous times that an Eichel trade is not as easy as it may seem. A team may offer a plethora of top picks, prospects, and entry-level players, but the Sabres would not be able to make that deal alone, as it would leave the team well below the salary cap floor regardless of Dahlin’s contract. Buffalo would have to acquire a nearly equal amount of salary back in the deal or else be prepared to quickly turn and add that salary in another deal. As a rebuilding team, the Sabres also won’t eager to add high-priced veterans who serve little purpose to a team with no title hopes. It makes an already difficult situation with Eichel all that much more tricky.

Even if Eichel begins the season with Buffalo, which seems increasingly likely, and even plays out the year with the team, the cap floor will still come into play. As the trade deadline approaches, the Sabres want to be in position to take full advantage of their valuable trade assets. The team has four forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies who are impending UFA’s and whose expiring contracts would be worth far more to another team. Colin Miller ($3.875MM), Will Butcher ($2.823MM), Cody Eakin ($2.25MM) and Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM) stand out as potentially popular trade candidates at the deadline. Depending on Dahlin’s contract, could they move Hinostroza or maybe even Eakin or Butcher without going below the floor? Probably. But Miller? Or multiple moves? Likely not. The deadline is also not a place that is likely to offer even salary swaps.

If GM Kevyn Adams and the Sabres want to enter the 2021-22 season with the confidence that they can make any move they want without limitation, they need to find a way to sensibly add salary to the roster. For a rebuilding team, it may be difficult to think about adding salary to a team that won’t contend, but it would be a short-term sacrifice to ensure their long-term plans are not affected. The team could explore the trade market for a veteran or two that can help to develop the young roster or perhaps a young, but overpaid reclamation project. Or maybe they could entertain adding a legitimate starting goalie. They could also explore the free agent market which, even late in the summer, still has some attractive names available. With the Sabres pegged to give roster spots to minimum-salary fourth-liners like Drake Caggiula and John Hayden, it might make more sense to give those slots and more importantly more salary to a high-upside project like Ryan Donato, Alex Galchenyuk, or Nikita Gusev or a veteran leader like Tyler Bozak, James Neal, or Jason Demers. 

The Sabres have plenty of options to solve their salary cap floor conundrum beyond just re-signing Dahlin. However, those options could disappear if they don’t act quickly, and with it their transactional flexibility this season.

RFA Profile: Rasmus Dahlin

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After his sophomore season, Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin looked primed to take another step forward and potentially establish himself as one of the premier blueliners in the NHL.  Unfortunately for him and Buffalo, that didn’t happen.  Instead, he struggled considerably (as did many others on the team) and the end result was a step backwards while he remains unsigned with training camp fast approaching.

Despite the dip in production last season, Dahlin has shown himself to be a capable offensive blueliner already with a pair of 40-point years under his belt.  He’s not going to be at the level of someone like Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes offensively but the 21-year-old has already shown himself to be above average at that end of the ice.

But what about his play in his own end?  That hasn’t progressed anywhere near as well and part of the reason his ATOI hasn’t jumped up much at all since his rookie season is that Dahlin still doesn’t kill penalties.  His in-zone play under Ralph Krueger left a lot to be desired although there was some improvement following the coaching change to Don Granato.  Offensive numbers drive contract negotiations but Dahlin can’t command top dollar since he isn’t as well-rounded as others around the league are and some of his potential contractual comparables were at the time of signing.

That might seemingly push Dahlin towards a short-term deal, giving him a chance to improve defensively and bounce back offensively while getting arbitration rights along the way.  Buffalo has shown a willingness to do that in the past although the end results haven’t been pretty with recent examples of that approach (Sam Reinhart and Linus Ullmark) now playing on other teams.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try for a long-term pact here even if it might carry a little bit of risk.

Statistics

2020-21: 56 GP, 5-18-23, -36, 26 PIMS, 115 shots, 21:36 ATOI
Career: 197 GP, 18-89-107, -56, 98 PIMS, 382 shots, 20:44 ATOI

Comparables

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – While Werenski didn’t take a big step forward in his platform year, he didn’t take a step back either.  The offensive numbers are somewhat similar from a per-game perspective although Werenski was better in his own end then compared to Dahlin now.  Even so, this would likely represent the low end of what a bridge deal would cost as Dahlin’s draft status gives him a leg up on most of the options here.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 11-33-44, -12, 18 PIMS, 168 shots, 22:54 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 237 GP, 38-90-128, +13, 48 PIMS, 563 shots, 22:08 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $15MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 6.14%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

As this contract was basically the top standard, there aren’t really other viable comparable players for bridge deals.  $5MM would be the starting point on a bridge contract with anything over two years exceeding this price tag quickly.  Accordingly, let’s now look at longer-term options.

Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia) – Like Dahlin, Provorov entered his platform season as someone looking primed to take a big step forward but ultimately underachieved, leading to some questions as to whether a bridge deal would come his way.  He was more of a number one than Dahlin has been which could be a factor.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 7-19-26, -16, 32 PIMS, 145 shots, 25:07 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 246 GP, 30-67-97, -6, 86 PIMS, 509 shots, 23:45 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $40.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – For years, this was the top standard that any young blueliner would want to use as a comparable and like Dahlin, he’s a number one pick.  Ekblad’s better defensive game looms large here so from a comparable standpoint, this one is a little weaker but it’s possible Dahlin still gets something like that (more on why that could be the case shortly).

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 10-11-21, -23, 58 PIMS, 225 shots, 21:28 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 227 GP, 37-59-96, +7, 131 PIMS, 577 shots, 21:40 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $60MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 10.27%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $66.96MM ($8.37MM AAV)

Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – After acquiring him from Boston, Calgary quickly inked Hamilton to the contract that he just wrapped up before signing with New Jersey.  The development path was the opposite of what Dahlin’s has been so far (his was a slow start and annual improvement) but the overall numbers are relatively close.

Platform Year Stats: 72 GP, 10-32-42, -3, 41 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:20 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 178 GP, 22-61-83, +23, 95 PIMS, 385 shots, 19:32 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $34.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.05%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $39.365MM ($6.56MM AAV)

Tyler Myers (Buffalo) – Let’s use another Sabres deal as the final comparable.  Myers’ first two seasons were a lot better than his third year (and as it turns out, those two remain his top years offensively) so at the time, Buffalo was thinking they had a core two-way player on their hands.  Of course, it didn’t work out that way in the end but the numbers are somewhat comparable to Dahlin’s so far.

Platform Year Stats: 55 GP, 8-15-23, +5, 33 PIMS, 84 shots, 22:29 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 217 GP, 29-79-108, +18, 105 PIMS, 310 shots, 22:57 ATOI
Contract: Seven years, $38.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.55%
Current Equivalent: Seven years, $48.778MM ($6.968MM AAV)

Projected Contract

In terms of fits for a long-term deal, Dahlin’s comparables appear to be in the high-$6MM range.  But if that’s the baseline for that type of contract, his camp would argue that a bridge contract would be the better way to go and rightfully so.  If Buffalo wants to buy out a couple of UFA years, they’ll need to go a bit higher, perhaps around the $7.5MM range to persuade Dahlin to go that route; a max-term (eight-year) deal could push it closer to $8MM.  Otherwise, a bridge contract starting at over $5MM for an AAV (one that is back-loaded to yield a higher qualifying offer) could very well wind up being the outcome here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information via CapFriendly.

Seven Notable RFAs Still Remain Unsigned

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It’s September 5th, which means that NHL preseason hockey is now less than three weeks away. Teams have been dealing with the realities of a flat salary cap for two offseasons now, but for some teams, it’s crunch time as their young star (or stars) remain in need of a new contract for the 2021-22 season.

While it’s obviously preferable for teams to get these players signed so they can join the team right away, teams do technically have until December 1st to sign any RFAs for them to be eligible to suit up this season. However, waiting into the season to sign the RFAs will increase the cap hit for the first year of the deal, something the league saw with William Nylander’s contract in 2018-19.

For some teams, mainly the Vancouver Canucks, that could be an issue. They’re the team that faces the largest potential cap crunch with both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes to sign. The team currently carries $10.7MM in cap space, but that number could increase to as much as $14.2MM with Micheal Ferland being placed on long-term injured reserve. Pettersson and Hughes both struggled at times this season, but it’s hard to take results from any Canuck into account too much due to the team’s large-scale COVID-19 outbreak. Pettersson was limited to just 26 games because of injury, scoring 21 points. Hughes netted 41 points in 56 games. However, it’s still a hard argument to make that these two aren’t elite talents. Because of this, it’s likely impossible for Vancouver to afford both on long-term deals. One of them will likely be receiving a two-to-four-year contract with a much lower cap hit, but the contracts need to be signed before the start of the season in order to avoid any inflation on the already tight cap hits.

Then there’s two teams who’ve had long, drawn-out negotiations with their respective stars this offseason – the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators. Both Kirill Kaprizov and Brady Tkachuk remain without deals. There appears to be some amount of hope for one team, though. Multiple reports in recent days have suggested the Wild are making progress on a deal, especially considering the deadline has now passed for Kaprizov to sign back home in Russia. The same can’t be said for Ottawa, as Tkachuk has claimed he hasn’t received a legitimate offer from the team and is beginning to get frustrated with the situation (as reported here by TSN’s Shawn Simpson). Ottawa does still have a great amount of salary cap flexibility, though, and they can afford for contract negotiations to stretch into the season.

Staying in Canada, the Edmonton Oilers still have Kailer Yamamoto to lock down in order to fill out their top-six forward group. When Oscar Klefbom is placed on LTIR and Alex Stalock is presumably sent down to the minors, the team will still have just around $1.8MM in cap space. Yamamoto likely won’t be signing anything longer than a two-year deal due to the situation. And though they can create some additional flexibility by not operating with a full roster, Edmonton will still be very interested in avoiding a prorated cap hit as the salary cap situation will remain tight no matter what.

Then there’s the remaining duo of youngsters playing for American teams – Rasmus Dahlin and Robert Thomas. Dahlin’s negotiations will be interesting to watch, purely to see if the team will commit to him long-term or not. The Sabres likely want to pay him more as the team still hasn’t reached the salary cap floor, as they still need to add roughly $2.5MM in cap hits to be cap-compliant. Dahlin will receive much more than that on any deal he signs. The Blues are in a bit of a pickle with Thomas, as the team has just $1.5MM in cap space remaining to ink the promising young forward. Thomas had only 12 points in 33 games this year and spent time injured, but had 10 goals and 42 points the season prior. It’ll likely be a one-year or two-year deal for Thomas, who finds himself in a very similar situation to Yamamoto in Edmonton.

All seven of these players will be watched with a keen eye by many in the hockey community as each day passes before camps open across the league. As the league emerges from the quiet part of the offseason, these players will likely dominate headlines sooner rather than later.

All salary cap figures via CapFriendly.com.

Rangers Making Progress On Libor Hajek’s Contract

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The bulk of the heavy lifting has been done for the Rangers and new GM Chris Drury as they have made several changes to their roster, adding plenty of grit along the way.  They still have one RFA left to re-sign, however, in Libor Hajek but Mollie Walker of the New York Post reports that New York is closing in on a deal with the defenseman.

The 23-year-old was one of the pieces that went to the Rangers as part of the deal that saw Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller go to Tampa Bay back at the 2018 trade deadline.  At the time, Hajek was in the middle of wrapping up a strong junior career and it looked like he might be a prospect that could be a long-term piece for New York.

While he’s still young enough to change his fortunes, that hasn’t quite happened yet.  Hajek played in 44 games with the Rangers last season but in a limited role, averaging just over 15 minutes per game while predominantly being on their third pairing.  His waiver exemption allowed him to be shuffled to the taxi squad and after working his way back up to the big club in February, he was sent down another 13 times through the season for cap purposes.

With his limited role, it’s hard to see Hajek landing much more than the value of his qualifying offer last month, one that was worth just over $874K.  He isn’t waiver-exempt anymore which makes a proposal of a lower NHL salary than the qualifier in exchange for a higher AHL salary – a common contract we’ve seen with some restricted free agents this summer – less palatable but it’s a deal that should be fairly simple to hammer out.  With the bigger moves now complete, Drury can focus on getting Hajek re-signed, a move that appears to be coming sooner than later.

Calgary Flames Sign Dillon Dube

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The Calgary Flames have signed restricted free agent forward Dillon Dube to a three-year contract. The deal will carry an average annual value of $2.3MM, leaving him an arbitration-eligible RFA in 2024. Pat Steinberg of Sportnet reports that Dube will earn $2.2MM in 2021-22, $2.3MM in 2022-23 and $2.4MM in 2023-24.

It’s been a busy week for Flames GM Brad Treliving, working his way through a long list of restricted free agents in Calgary. He has now signed Juuso Valimaki, Nikita Zadorov, Justin Kirkland, Glenn Gawdin, and Dube in the last few days, leaving just Connor Mackey to negotiate with. While Kirkland and Gawdin are still depth options, the same can’t really be said about Dube, who has worked his way into a full-time role with the Flames over the last two seasons. The 23-year-old recorded 11 goals and 22 points in 51 games for the team this season, averaging 13:38 of ice time.

That’s not a huge role, but this new contract secures him as a fixture in the lineup for the next several years. Originally selected 556th overall in 2016 as a center, he never really has been given an opportunity to play in the middle for Calgary. It will be interesting to follow Flames training camp to see how the lineup shakes out under head coach Darryl Sutter given the influx of gritty, physical presences. The team added Blake Coleman, Tyler Pitlick, and Trevor Lewis to the mix, all three of whom are likely better suited in the bottom six. If Dube, who has built up his two-way game, can find a home on one of the top two lines, there’s a good chance he produces a lot more offense than a $2.3MM contract usually warrants.

Even if he doesn’t take another significant step forward offensively, a $2.3MM cap hit doesn’t pose much risk for the Flames. As long as Dube can keep himself in the lineup, providing solid defensive play, there shouldn’t be many complaints from the Calgary faithful. There’s room for upside in a deal like this, which is key for a team like the Flames that are trying to find their way in the Pacific Division.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Jason Dickinson

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The Vancouver Canucks have avoided salary arbitration with recently-acquired forward Jason Dickinson. The club has announced that their new addition has signed a three-year contract with a $2.65MM AAV. The deal buys out one UFA year from Dickinson, who had filed for arbitration with a hearing set for August 20. PuckPedia reports that the deal breaks down as follows:

2021-22: $1.5MM + $500K Signing Bonus
2022-23: $2.7MM
2023-24: $3.25MM

Dickinson, 26, came over from the Dallas Stars early last month when it became clear that they could not protect him in the Expansion Draft and grew worried that they would lose him for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It would have been an interesting theory to test, as the Kraken ended up setting their sights on top UFA defender Jamie Oleksiak, who they selected and signed to a long-term deal. Oleksiak’s availability as an impending free agent was something that Seattle GM Ron Francis likely planned on for some time and he may not have changed his plans even if Dickinson was available.

The Stars’ paranoia was the Canucks’ gain, as they added a versatile, two-way forward who should fit perfectly in head coach Travis Green’s system and it only took a third-round pick to do so. Vancouver clearly feels confident in Dickinson’s place on the team, as they have given him a multi-year deal at nearly double his previous $1.5MM AAV with a steep escalation in salary each year. Any resolution would have been a better alternative to an arbitration hearing, which would have been a difficult start to a new relationship. To Dickinson’s credit, he did prove over the past three years in Dallas, despite limited games and a bottom-six role, that he was well worth a raise. The hard-working forward flashed 30-point upside and special teams dependability while consistently winning puck battles and blocking shots. The type of player that a team can never have too many of, Dickinson hopes to provide the support that Vancouver needs to get back on track this season.

Winnipeg Jets Re-Sign Johnny Kovacevic

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Wednesday: The Jets have confirmed the new contract for Kovacevic, as well as the reported terms. Now the big defender just has to make sure that this isn’t the last time this season that he makes Winnipeg headlines as he looks to earn his NHL debut.

Tuesday: Just like that, the Winnipeg Jets have wrapped up their restricted free agent class. After re-signing Andrew Copp earlier today, the Jets have reportedly taken care of business with their final remaining unsigned RFA. CapFriendly reports that Winnipeg and defenseman Johnny Kovacevic have come to terms on a one-year, two-way contract. Kovacevic is expected to make the minimum $750K at the NHL level and $90K at the AHL level.

Kovacevic, 24, is a 2017 third-round pick of the Jets who was an overage selection following a fantastic freshman season at Merrimack College. Kovacevic would eventually leave Merrimack early to turn pro following 54 points in 101 NCAA games over three years. The 6’5″, 220-lb. defenseman outgrew the college level quickly and was ready to match up with pro competition.

In two season in the AHL, Kovacevic still has produced relatively well for a defender of his stature. In 75 games, Kovacevic has logged seven goals and 28 points. This offensive touch to go with his size and strength makes Kovacevic an intriguing package on the back end. Though Winnipeg addressed their lacking blue depth in a major way this season by adding Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon while retaining their existing group through the Expansion Draft, it should only be a matter of time before Kovacevic finally gets his first NHL look. Alongside Logan Stanley, Dylan Samberg, and Ville Heinola, Kovacevic is part of an impressive next wave of defenders coming up for Winnipeg.

Los Angeles Kings Sign Jacob Moverare

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The Los Angeles Kings have reached a deal with another one of their restricted free agents, signing Jacob Moverare to a one-year, two-way contract. The contract will carry an NHL salary of $750K.

Moverare, 22, was a free agent for the first time after spending the last few seasons bouncing around the world. The young defenseman was selected 112th overall in 2016 out of Sweden, but after signing his entry-level deal came to North America to play for the Mississauga Steelheads of the OHL. In 2018-19 when he had aged out of the junior ranks, he took his game back to Sweden to play two seasons for Frolunda. His time overseas was supposed to end in 2020-21, but since the AHL wasn’t up and running at the start of the season, he ended up playing with SaiPa in Finland. After 50 games there, he joined the Ontario Reign for their shortened campaign, and ended up playing in 26 AHL games, his first professional season in North America.

After just a few months in the minor leagues, Moverare was never going to get more than a two-way deal, but his time in the AHL was certainly impressive. He finished second among all Reign defensemen in scoring with 15 points despite playing just over half the games and showed the polish that comes from several seasons playing against professionals in Europe. The 6’2″ defenseman will likely be on his way back to Ontario for 2021-22, but things are trending towards a potential NHL appearance in the near future.

Notably, Moverare is no longer waiver-exempt, meaning if the Kings want to send him to the minor leagues he will have to be risked to the rest of the league. At the end of this contract, he will once again be an RFA, but this time eligible for salary arbitration.

Winnipeg Jets, Neal Pionk Avoid Arbitration

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The Winnipeg Jets and Neal Pionk won’t need their upcoming arbitration hearing after all, as they’ve agreed on a long-term contract instead. The RFA defenseman has signed a four-year deal that will carry an average annual value of $5.875MM. Pionk’s hearing had been scheduled for Friday. PuckPedia reports the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $3.5MM
  • 2022-23: $6.5MM
  • 2023-24: $7.5MM + 6-team no-trade
  • 2024-25: $6.0MM + 6-team no-trade

It’s easy to underestimate just how strong a player Pionk has become because of the market he plays in and the high-profile player he was traded for. Acquired as part of the package for Jacob Trouba, the 26-year-old defenseman has become one of the most reliable offensive defensemen in the league. In fact, since joining the Jets in 2019, Pionk ranks 13th among all NHL defensemen in scoring with 77 points in 125 games. That’s more than twice as many as Trouba, who signed a seven-year, $56MM deal with the Rangers upon arrival.

That’s not to say the two are directly comparable, but is just evidence to show how valuable Pionk has become in Winnipeg. He has averaged nearly 23 minutes a night since arriving, contributing to both the powerplay and penalty kill. When the Jets’ need for a defenseman was discussed at length this season it was to find Pionk some help, but his place on this team will continue to be a leading one.

By buying out two years of unrestricted free agency, the Jets have locked up Pionk through his prime, but it didn’t come at much of a bargain. After acquiring Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon this offseason, the team now has five defensemen making at least $3MM for the next three seasons. Winnipeg now sits just barely under the salary cap ceiling but still has a lot of work to do, with an arbitration case for Andrew Copp on the horizon. The team does have some wiggle room as Bryan Little will be placed on long-term injured reserve again, but it isn’t a lot considering they have just nine forwards signed to one-way deals at the moment.

Committing so much to the defense is not usually a bad plan, but it’s unclear exactly how the Jets expect to give their young options playing time now. Logan Stanley, Ville Heinola, Sami Niku, and Dylan Samberg are all ready to contribute, but the route to the roster is pretty much blocked through 2023-24. There will be one regular spot to fight over when the season begins (injuries notwithstanding), with Stanley obviously having the inside track after his performance this year.

For Pionk, this contract is basically perfect, giving him a huge raise through the next several years while still letting him test free agency at a young enough age to land another multi-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pittsburgh Penguins Sign Radim Zohorna

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have finished some restricted free agent business, signing Radim Zohorna to a two-year contract. It will be a two-way contract in 2021-22 and a one-way contract in 2022-23, carrying an average annual value of $750K in the NHL. Penguins GM Ron Hextall released a short statement on the young forward.

Radim impressed us last season with his ability to transition to the smaller ice surface quickly and adapt his game. He is a power forward with a lot of potential and we are excited to watch him continue to grow as a player.

Zohorna, the 6’6″ behemoth that came up to play eight games with the Penguins this season, is an interesting player to follow as training camps open and rosters take shape. He scored three goals and 11 points in 12 minor league games and the 25-year-old seems to have legitimately turned a corner in his professional career. Undrafted, he also dominated the Czech league early in the season, one which had usually dominated him in the past. In 21 games for Mlada Boleslav BK, he scored 12 goals and 22 points, matching his career-high in points in fewer than half the games.

If Zohorna can continue that breakout offensively, he suddenly becomes a potential option for head coach Mike Sullivan in the bottom-six. The team essentially lost both Brandon Tanev and Jared McCann to the Seattle Kraken, but have added names like Danton Heinen and Brock McGinn through free agency. Even if he fails to make the team out of camp—and the fact that he is still waiver-exempt does not work in his favor—Zohorna will almost certainly get into some games for Pittsburgh this season as an injury replacement.

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