Prospects

In a surprising turn of events, the Winnipeg Jets have announced that vaunted prospect Chaz Lucius has signed his three-year entry-level contract with the club. The deal will start with the 2022-23 season and will carry a $925K base salary and $1.325MM AAV. The 2021 first-round pick will depart the University of Minnesota after just one year.

Lucius’ signing comes as a surprise for a plethora of reasons, but none greater than the fact that it was reported earlier this month that Lucius would remain at Minnesota for at least one more year. That decision seemed reasonable, as the 18-year-old played in just 24 games in his freshman year to the tune of only 19 points; not exactly numbers that begged for an early exit from the college ranks. Lucius is still a rather raw prospect, jumping directly from the U.S. National Team Development program to the NCAA and now to the pros in just two years time. It seems especially odd that the decision was made so long after the end of the collegiate season.

On top of developmental reasons, it also would have been more than fair for Lucius to want to stay at Minnesota for another year given what’s on the horizon in 2022-23. The Gophers were a Frozen Four finalist this season and plan to return much of their core. Then there is the incoming recruiting class, which could wind up being the best in the NCAA and includes one name in particular of interest: Cruz Lucius. Chaz’ younger brother, who is also a USNTDP product, will arrive at Minnesota next season, where he was expected to play alongside his sibling. Before then, he is expected to be a second- or third-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. Cruz is part of a group of elite U.S. prospects joining the Gophers, including presumptive top-five pick Logan Cooley and potential first-round selections Jimmy Snuggerud and Ryan Chesley, not to mention several other draft hopefuls.

Minnesota will be especially happy for their loaded incoming class now that they are losing one of their top building blocks in Lucius. The likely reason for the departure could be Lucius’ ongoing health concerns. Though he flashes elite ability when he is on the ice, Lucius has been notoriously injury-prone so far in his young career. He played only 24 games this season, missing much of the second half of the season and the Gophers’ entire NCAA Tournament run. In 2020-21, he only suited up for 25 games with the USNTDP. For Lucius to reach his potential, he needs to get into more games and the Jets likely feel that getting him in front of an NHL medical staff and training team is the best way to do that. Although there will likely be a steep adjustment to the pros at this point in his development, Winnipeg can at least ensure that he spends the year adding to his frame and improving his conditioning, easier to do without the distractions of college life.

Also worth noting is that Lucius did show immense improvement as his freshman season wore on. After recording just one goal and three points in his first eight NCAA games, the skilled forward was a point per game player over his next 16 games, including tallying eight goals. Even in limited action over the past two years, Lucius has proven that he has top-end talent and the Jets simply might not have wanted to wait for him to develop slowly at the college level when they can use affordable scorers on the NHL roster as soon as possible. Yet – health issues aside – it feels as though one more year at Minnesota likely would have done Lucius well. Perhaps the youngster will spend time with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks next year – his CHL rights holder is another avenue now that he has signed – but that would also run counter to the idea of the Jets keeping a closer eye on him. Whatever happens next, hopefully Winnipeg didn’t pull the trigger too soon trying to benefit the present at the cost of the future.