Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Mailbag: Stamkos, Flyers, Konecny, Stars, Blackhawks, Utah, Rangers

July 21, 2024 at 7:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include possible contract comparables for Flyers winger Travis Konecny, Chicago’s active offseason, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

GBear: The assumption is that Stamkos will play on the wing in Nashville because he’s played in that position recently with Tampa, but is there any good reason why he couldn’t switch back to center, which is where the need is on the 2nd line?

It all comes down to trying to deploy Stamkos best. He has split his time between the wing and center in recent years and as he ages, it stands to reason that they’re going to want him on the wing where there are fewer responsibilities while being a triggerman is better as a winger than a center. Bringing in a high-priced player and then not putting him in the best situation to succeed is a little counterproductive.

Having said that, I don’t see why Nashville couldn’t use him down the middle next season; I think he can handle that (it’s the later years I’m more skeptical about). He’s pretty effective on the draw and if it pushes Thomas Novak onto the third line to be more of a secondary scorer (the role that’s best for him), that would be ideal.

But it’s a short-term solution. Stamkos should be a winger before too long while Novak and Cody Glass (a potential trade candidate in the coming weeks given their cap situation) aren’t great fits in that second center role. I don’t think Juuso Parssinen will get to that level and their best center prospects aren’t on the verge of being NHL-ready either. GM Barry Trotz filled a lot of holes this summer but a better fit at the 2C position is something that should be on next year’s shopping list.

wiyasm: Will the Flyers bring in a true top center to pair with Michkov? Are they putting their trust in either Couts or Frost? Or are they going to make a trade to find someone?

I like Morgan Frost as a secondary option but I’d be surprised if he becomes a bona fide number one option. While they used a lottery pick on Jett Luchanko taking him 13th overall, I’m not sure he’s a top liner down the road either. And while they’re paying Sean Couturier like a top-liner, he’s not that type of player anymore. One day, they’re going to have to do something about that.

But one day is not today. The Flyers are still very much in the building phase of their rebuild; they’re not expecting to go and push for a playoff spot next season. If they were, we’d see them using their LTIR pool, which should surpass the $10MM mark. Accordingly, there’s no immediate need to go find a top center to play with Matvei Michkov.

For next season, I think they’re going to have him playing with Couturier and Frost at times. Couturier would be able to take some of the defensive pressure off of him while still allowing them to evaluate Michkov against top opposition. Assuming that goes good and bad (the transition to a key role is rarely seamless), there should be times when Michkov is dropped to play with Frost to allow him to face some lesser checking and try to get more balance on the top two lines. What they have now is good enough for that type of evaluation.

Eventually, I think Philadelphia will make some sort of move to bring in an impactful center. A trade is going to be hard as those types of players rarely become available. But if one becomes available in free agency, they have enough flexibility to make a very competitive offer. I think that’s their Plan A with Plan B signing a second-line center and hoping that player has chemistry with Michkov.

Emoney123: As Travis Konecny enters the final year of his contract, what are the comparable contracts if the Flyers try to re-sign him or what might be a reasonable return if a trade is a better option for the rebuild?

How important is Developmental Camp and scrimmages?

Early indications are that Konecny’s camp is hoping for a double-digit AAV, with the expectation that there should be another fair-sized jump in the salary cap for 2025-26 when his new deal kicks in. I think the Flyers would prefer that it falls within the $8MM range. As is often the case with these things, I suspect an eventual agreement would fall around the middle, probably starting with a nine.

For recent comparables, the best ones I could find were centers. I went looking for players who were UFAs at the expiration of their current contracts (which took Timo Meier, an oft-cited comparable, off the table) but still in their late 20s. For simplicity, let’s assume a $4MM jump in the cap for 2025-26, bringing it to $92MM so we can come up with potential amounts based on cap hit percentage (CH%).

Bo Horvat (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.69
Platform year: 70 points
CH%: 10.18%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.3656MM

Mathew Barzal (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.88
Platform year: 51 points (in 58 games due to injury)
CH%: 10.96%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $10.0832MM

Dylan Larkin (DET), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.78
Platform year: 79 points
CH%: 10.42%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.5864MM

Konecny, meanwhile, has a career PPG of 0.71 and is coming off a platform year of 61 points but in 60 games. That tends to push me more towards Larkin’s comparable so an AAV around $9.5MM seems like a reasonable price tag.

I think their best chance to trade him has already gone out the window. With most teams having built their rosters for next season, there probably isn’t a good landing spot for him now. So then you’re probably looking at an in-season move and as we all know, top-end rentals with salary retention tend to yield a first-round pick, a quality prospect, and sometimes another lesser piece. If Konecny has another point per game season heading into the trade deadline sometime in March, they might be able to do a bit better than that depending what’s on the market.

As for development camps and scrimmages, as a fan, I don’t put much stock into them. It’s more for teams to establish or update baselines for physical testing and get a feel for how their summer training is progressing with a chance to make some tweaks if needed. Personally, rookie camp showings are more important as that runs into training camp; a good showing there could give them a leg up heading into the preseason. Meanwhile, a June or July summer camp isn’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come for rookie camp.

bottlesup: If the Stars by our choice or not start casting off veterans, do we still have enough young talent to stay competitive for the Cup?

Before getting to the multi-year element of this question, Dallas did a pretty good job of not casting off veterans this summer. Yes, they lost Chris Tanev but that was widely expected given their cap situation. Their back end remains a bit shaky but on the whole, I think they’re one of the true Cup contenders heading into the upcoming season.

I’m not sure there’s going to be a big casting off of veterans next summer. They have over $23MM in expiring UFA contracts in 2025, giving them ample savings to keep the core players they want (Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston, for example, are RFAs needing new deals) and some of the existing veterans while having enough left to replace some others while giving players like Mavrik Bourque a full-time look if he isn’t in that role next season already. They’ll be alright for that summer.

In 2026, they don’t have quite as much coming off the books ($11.5MM in UFA contracts for three players) but that plus another expected cap increase should be enough for a new deal for RFA Jason Robertson while again allowing them to retain or replace some of the veterans at least. And then the following summer, Tyler Seguin is off the books, opening up nearly $10MM alone in extra flexibility.

Long story short, I don’t think there’s a big veteran exodus coming in Dallas because of how their expiring contracts are largely staggered. That, coupled with a decent prospect pool, should be enough to keep them as a legitimate threat for a while yet.

Unclemike1526: I thought Kyle Davidson did a great job in Free Agency even if most of the so-called ”Hockey Experts” don’t seem to agree with me. That is up until the T.J. Brodie signing. One I didn’t understand the signing because he wasn’t very good last year and two, I didn’t get the two years. Was there that big a market for him that they had to add a second year to get him? I mean the money isn’t a problem because the Hawks have tons of it but it just seemed a curious signing to me. And what did you think of the Hawks Draft and FA overall? Thoughts? Thanks as always.

The success or lack thereof in Chicago’s offseason is contingent on whether you agree with the direction they took that will see several of their younger players sent to the minors. If you’re of the mindset that you want your top youngsters getting big minutes in the NHL, you’re not going to like what they’ve done. But if you like the idea of having fewer youngsters up but playing with a better group while the rest are playing big minutes in what should be a winning environment in AHL Rockford, you’re going to like what they did. I’m in the latter camp.

While it might seem like they went a bit overboard, they have several expiring contracts up front while Alec Martinez is on a one-year pact. They can easily move some of their younger players into the NHL for 2025-26 where they’ll be a bit more ready for the challenge. So I was a fan of the strategy they took although another cap-clearinghouse move wouldn’t have hurt had one been available.

As for Brodie, the second year doesn’t shock me. As part of our planning for the Top 50 UFA list we do each year, we include a contract projection. Mine was two years at $3.5MM per season so two at $3.75MM is close enough. (Having said that, I didn’t have Chicago on my shortlist of landing spots.) Did he struggle in Toronto? Yes. But he was playing nearly 22 minutes a night. That context gets missed a lot. So he’s not a top-pairing player anymore. That’s not a big deal. Chicago isn’t paying him to be a top-pairing player, they’re paying him to be an 18-20-minute piece, one who can play on both sides of the ice. I think there was enough demand for that type of player that someone was giving him the second year.

Draft-wise, I was fine with Artyom Levshunov with the second pick. Ivan Demidov would have been my pick but I understand the value of a high-end right-shot defenseman; those are hard to come by. Given their young center depth, I was a bit surprised with the Sacha Boisvert pick when Cole Eiserman was still on the board but value-wise, he was ranked in that range so it’s not a bad pick. I didn’t have Marek Vanacker as a late first-round pick but once you get to that point, there’s not much of a difference between a late first and an early second so I won’t quibble much there. Out of their other picks, John Mustard and A.J. Spellacy were good value for where they were taken. If I had to quibble, I’d have liked to have seen a second defender come before their final pick but otherwise, I think they did fine.

PyramidHeadcrab: With what’s-his-name fumbling the Phoenix Coyotes ball, do you think the Utah Hockey Club becomes the Utah Coyotes? Or will they be their own thing?

What’s a goofy name you’d love to see them adopt?

So, what’s the latest with the Coyotes? PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan relayed earlier this week (Twitter link) that the now-defunct franchise had to buy back any unsold items from the team store at Mullett Arena with the items eventually being donated to Goodwill. That’s just a random aside as the franchise continues to wrap up business operations.

As to your first question, I don’t think Utah will want to purchase the rights to the Coyotes branding. With how poorly things went in recent years, why would a new franchise looking to establish its own identity want to use a moniker with so many negative connotations? I expect they’ll want to do their own thing.

While many people are intrigued about the team name, that’s something that hasn’t interested me too much. I’d rather it not be some sort of outlandish or goofy name if I’m being honest. My only other request? The name is a plural, getting away from the trend of teams (not just in the NHL but more generally) opting for a non-pluralized moniker. That bothers me way more than it really should for some reason.

Keithg813: What do you think of the Rangers’ offseason moves?

Well, there’s not much to go over here. I get the logic behind signing Kaapo Kakko early for his qualifying offer to take some of the uncertainty out of the process but if I’m a prospective acquiring team, I’d have rather had the chance to at least discuss a longer-term agreement. I’m not going to say it’s a bad contract – it’s not – but if you’re of the belief that they were looking to move him, I think it might have hurt their chances rather than helped.

Generally speaking, when a team exercises a workaround to someone’s trade protection as they did with the eventual waiving of Barclay Goodrow, I don’t like it. These are the types of things that can hurt a franchise reputationally. Having said that, this is the Rangers here, I think they can get away with it not hurting as much as it might another team. Getting out of that contract without any incentivizing required was good for flexibility purposes.

Trading for Reilly Smith made sense from the standpoint that they didn’t want to commit a long-term deal to someone in free agency knowing that Alexis Lafreniere, Igor Shesterkin, and K’Andre Miller all need pricey extensions next summer. The price isn’t great (I didn’t like them losing a second-rounder) but with how quickly names were coming off the board, it’s a defensible pivot for sure that helps now and keeps their flexibility for next summer when they’re really going to need it.

Beyond that, I like the bridge deal that they gave Braden Schneider so now they have enough flexibility to work out a long-term agreement with Ryan Lindgren in the coming days and still be cap-compliant heading into the season where they should be able to bank some in-season space as long as the injuries aren’t too problematic.

In a previous mailbag, my suggestion for the Rangers was not to make a bunch of big changes to the core but rather keep on their current path, keep some cap space open for in-season movements, and make additions closer to the trade deadline as they’ve done in recent years. This is a capable veteran group that should be right in the thick of it next season. I know some fans were hoping for a busier summer but being relatively quiet as they have been isn’t a bad outcome by any stretch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tanner Pearson

July 21, 2024 at 9:04 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 2 Comments

The third week of free agency saw the amount of forward options continue to thin out. Most of the best available names found new homes on the open market or headed overseas. That’s left teams with a remaining UFA class made up almost exclusively of reclamation projects, whether they be youngsters coming off being non-tendered or veterans in the twilight of their careers.

We’ve already examined one of the latter names, James van Riemsdyk, who’s still looking for a new home after a successful year in a depth role with the Bruins. Left-winger Tanner Pearson is another one who is still available.

Pearson began his career with the Kings back in 2013-14 in a depth role, gradually adjusting to NHL minutes after being selected in the first round in 2012. The then 21-year-old didn’t start the season on the NHL roster, instead working his way up to a late-season call-up and earning an everyday role in the lineup by the time the playoffs rolled around. Now in more of a middle-six role, Pearson would turn out to be one of the Kings’ most valuable players that spring, posting 12 points in 24 games despite only seeing around 12 minutes of ice time per night as L.A. won its second Stanley Cup in three years.

The Kitchener, Ontario native continued working his way up the Kings’ lineup, posting a career-high 24 goals in 2016-17 in the final year of a bridge deal. Los Angeles didn’t let the pending RFA go unsigned following his breakout campaign, locking him into a four-year, $15MM deal that was rather ill-fated in hindsight. After failing to take a step forward in 2017-18, Pearson began the 2018-19 season with just one assist in 17 games before being shipped out to the Penguins for Carl Hagelin. Pearson’s tenure in Pittsburgh was improved but still forgettable, posting 14 points in 44 games before being traded for the second time that season, this time to the Canucks for Erik Gudbranson.

In Vancouver, Pearson managed to rediscover his game. He ended the season on a tear, doubling his nine goals on the year in just 19 games in a Canucks jersey. Revitalized, Pearson assumed top-six duties in Vancouver in 2019-20, posting a career-high 45 points in 69 games, with his 0.65 points per game smashing his previous career high of 0.55.

Pearson’s performance nosedived in the final season of his contract, though. Despite averaging a career-high 17:04 per game in 2020-21, he was limited to just 10 goals and 18 points in 51 games with a -15 rating. Vancouver still believed Pearson was closer to the player who had broken out for a career-high the year prior, though, extending him for the next three seasons at a $3.25MM cap hit.

That deal saw Pearson return to decent middle-six production in 2021-22 (34 points in 68 games). But a hand injury that teammate Quinn Hughes alleged was improperly handled by the Canucks limited him to 14 games in 2022-23, posting a lone goal and four assists. There was a time when some believed Pearson’s career might be over due to the injury, but it became clear during the summer that he would be healthy enough to return to play. It wouldn’t be in Vancouver, though, as they traded him to the Canadiens during training camp in a deal for backup netminder Casey DeSmith.

Pearson remained hampered by unrelated injuries during his time in Montreal, missing nearly 30 games and slipping back down to a decidedly bottom-six role. The Canadiens tried to shop him at this year’s deadline, which would have been the fourth time being traded in his career, but there wasn’t interest. Unsurprisingly, reports as far back as May indicated Montreal wouldn’t bring him back.

Stats

2023-24: 54 GP, 5 G, 8 A, 13 P, -12, 21 PIMs, 12:56 ATOI, 43.5 CF%
Career: 644 GP, 138 G, 147 A, 285 P, -3, 230 PIMs, 15:04 ATOI, 51.4 CF%

Potential Suitors

There haven’t been any specific names linked to Pearson on the open market. With a Stanley Cup ring and over 50 games of playoff experience under his belt, though, there should be a fair amount of interest from postseason hopefuls in Pearson as a low-cost fourth-line option.

A return to the Kings could make sense. The team qualified RFA Arthur Kaliyev, but he’s not expected back in the fall and will likely find a new home via trade. That leaves a vacancy on their fourth line, exacerbated by the departures of Carl Grundström and Blake Lizotte. Even assuming 2019 top-five pick Alex Turcotte makes the jump to the NHL full-time next season, they don’t have enough internal options at forward for consistent NHL minutes.

Other teams in the West looking to make a push for the playoffs next year that could use veteran insurance for their bottom six include the Jets, Predators and Wild. Over in the East, the Bruins, Red Wings and Senators all make a fair bit of sense as well, with some question marks remaining among their depth wingers.

Projected Contract

This late in the month and coming off the worst season of his career by points per game (0.24), there won’t be much of an appetite for anything above a one-year, $1MM pact for Pearson. A league minimum deal ($775K) becomes more likely the longer he remains unsigned. He should still be able to land a one-way deal entering his age-32 campaign, but his cap hit will still be buriable in the minors, in all likelihood.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2025 NHL Restricted Free Agents

July 21, 2024 at 7:19 am CDT | by Josh Erickson Leave a Comment

The following players are currently projected to be eligible for restricted free agency after the 2024-25 season. Each player’s 2025 signing rights holder and age is in parentheses.

* denotes player is projected to have arbitration rights

Updated 11/1/24, 10:10 a.m.

Centers

Nikita Alexandrov (Blues, 24)*
John Beecher (Bruins, 24)
Carl Berglund (Oilers, 25)
Wyatt Bongiovanni (Senators, 25)
Jesper Boqvist (Panthers, 26)*
Xavier Bourgault (Senators, 22)
Mavrik Bourque (Stars, 23)
Skyler Brind’Amour (Hurricanes, 25)
Nolan Burke (Predators, 22)
Philippe Daoust (Senators, 23)
Tanner Dickinson (Blues, 23)
John Farinacci (Bruins, 24)
Sean Farrell (Canadiens, 23)
Jack Finley (Lightning, 22)
Parker Ford (Jets, 24)
Jean-Luc Foudy (Avalanche, 23)
Jordan Frasca (Penguins, 24)
Morgan Frost (Flyers, 26)*
Marc Gatcomb (Islanders, 25)
Morgan Geekie (Bruins, 26)*
Cody Glass (Predators, 26)*
Ty Glover (Canucks, 24)
Gage Goncalves (Lightning, 24)
Ridly Greig (Senators, 22)
Cole Guttman (Blackhawks, 26)*
Pontus Holmberg (Maple Leafs, 26)*
Wyatt Johnston (Stars, 22)
Mark Kastelic (Bruins, 26)*
Rory Kerins (Flames, 23)
Marat Khusnutdinov (Wild, 23)
Ryder Korczak (Rangers, 22)
Tyson Kozak (Sabres, 22)
Trevor Kuntar (Bruins, 24)
Rasmus Kupari (Jets, 25)*
Hendrix Lapierre (Capitals, 23)
Jake Leschyshyn (Rangers, 26)*
Josh Lopina (Ducks, 24)
Isac Lundeström (Ducks, 25)*
Jalen Luypen (Blackhawks, 23)
Jack McBain (Utah, 25)*
Hunter McKown (Blue Jackets, 22)
Ryan McLeod (Sabres, 25)*
Mason McTavish (Ducks, 22)
Georgii Merkulov (Bruins, 24)
Jan Mysak (Ducks, 23)
Jaxon Nelson (Bruins, 25)
Tristen Nielsen (Canucks, 25)*
Henri Nikkanen (Jets, 24)
Ilya Nikolaev (Flames, 24)
Cédric Paré (Maple Leafs, 26)
Juuso Pärssinen (Predators, 24)
Ondrej Pavel (Avalanche, 24)
Noah Philp (Oilers, 26)*
Vasiliy Ponomarev (Penguins, 23)
Jamieson Rees (Senators, 24)
Marco Rossi (Wild, 23)
Henrik Rybinski (Capitals, 24)
Aatu Räty (Canucks, 22)
Antti Saarela (Blackhawks, 24)*
Max Sasson (Canucks, 24)
Xavier Simoneau (Canadiens, 24)*
Wilmer Skoog (Panthers, 26)
Matthew Stienburg (Avalanche, 24)
Jack Studnicka (Kings, 26)*
Ryan Suzuki (Hurricanes, 24)
Lukas Svejkovsky (Lightning, 23)
Tyler Tullio (Sabres, 23)

Left Wingers

Nicholas Abruzzese (Maple Leafs, 26)*
Arshdeep Bains (Canucks, 24)
Morgan Barron (Jets, 26)*
Adam Beckman (Devils, 24)
Matěj Blümel (Stars, 25)*
Thomas Bordeleau (Sharks, 23)
Brendan Brisson (Golden Knights, 23)
Noah Cates (Flyers, 26)*
Angus Crookshank (Senators, 25)*
William Cuylle (Rangers, 23)
Grigori Denisenko (Golden Knights, 25)*
Elliot Desnoyers (Flyers, 23)
Connor Dewar (Maple Leafs, 26)*
Jaydon Dureau (Lightning, 24)
Adam Edstrom (Rangers, 24)*
Oscar Eklind (Flyers, 26)*
Liam Foudy (Islanders, 25)
Noah Gregor (Senators, 26)*
Cross Hanas (Red Wings, 23)
Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (Canadiens, 26)*
Emil Heineman (Canadiens, 23)
Roni Hirvonen (Maple Leafs, 23)
Roby Jarventie (Oilers, 22)
Tye Kartye (Kraken, 24)
Miloš Kelemen (Utah, 26)*
Alexander Kisakov (Sabres, 22)
Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs, 22)
Klim Kostin (Sharks, 26)*
Jakub Lauko (Wild, 25)*
Andre Lee (Kings, 24)*
Bennett MacArthur (Penguins, 24)
Ben McCartney (Utah, 24)
Michael Milne (Wild, 22)
Sam Morton (Flames, 25)
Navrin Mutter (Predators, 24)
Nikita Nesterenko (Ducks, 23)
Oliver Okuliar (Panthers, 25)
Jakob Pelletier (Flames, 24)*
John-Jason Peterka (Sabres, 23)
Mikael Pyyhtia (Blue Jackets, 23)
Pavol Regenda (Ducks, 25)*
Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs, 23)*
Jonas Røndbjerg (Golden Knights, 26)*
Mason Shaw (Jets, 26)*
Elmer Söderblom (Red Wings, 24)
Antonio Stranges (Stars, 23)
Luke Toporowski (Wild, 24)*
Daniel Torgersson (Jets, 23)
Bogdan Trineyev (Capitals, 23)
Dmitri Voronkov (Blue Jackets, 24)*
Connor Zary (Flames, 23)

Right Wingers

Corey Andonovski (Penguins, 26)*
Raivis Ansons (Penguins, 23)
Emil Bemström (Penguins, 26)*
Jonatan Berggren (Red Wings, 24)*
Judd Caulfield (Ducks, 24)
Martin Chromiak (Kings, 22)
Graeme Clarke (Wild, 24)
Brandon Coe (Sharks, 23)
Sam Colangelo (Ducks, 23)
Matthew Coronato (Flames, 22)
Pierrick Dube (Capitals, 24)*
William Dufour (Islanders, 23)
Lucas Edmonds (Lightning, 24)
MacKenzie Entwistle (Panthers, 26)*
Luke Evangelista (Predators, 23)
Trey Fix-Wolansky (Blue Jackets, 26)*
Tyson Foerster (Flyers, 23)
Noel Gunler (Hurricanes, 23)
Daniil Gushchin (Sharks, 23)
Simon Holmström (Islanders, 24)
Jan Jeník (Senators, 24)*
Reese Johnson (Wild, 26)*
Kaapo Kakko (Rangers, 24)*
Arthur Kaliyev (Kings, 24)*
Linus Karlsson (Canucks, 25)*
Nikolai Kovalenko (Avalanche, 25)*
Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks, 25)*
Alex Laferriere (Kings, 23)
Raphael Lavoie (Oilers, 24)*
Brett Leason (Ducks, 26)*
Nathan Légaré (Devils, 24)
Olle Lycksell (Flyers, 25)*
Pavel Novák (Wild, 23)
Jacob Perreault (Canadiens, 23)
Jason Polin (Avalanche, 26)*
Jack Quinn (Sabres, 23)
Adam Raška (Wild, 23)
Aku Raty (Utah, 24)*
Matt Rempe (Rangers, 23)
Tristen Robins (Sharks, 23)
Lukáš Rousek (Sabres, 26)*
Mitchell Russell (Sharks, 24)
Mackie Samoskevich (Panthers, 22)
Cole Schwindt (Flames, 24)*
Justin Sourdif (Panthers, 23)
Marcus Sylvegård (Blues, 26)
Philip Tomasino (Predators, 23)*
Maxim Tsyplakov (Islanders, 26)*
Gabriel Vilardi (Jets, 25)*
Oliver Wahlstrom (Islanders, 25)*
Samuel Walker (Wild, 26)*
Zayde Wisdom (Flyers, 23)
Kailer Yamamoto (Utah, 26)
Jesse Ylönen (Lightning, 25)*
Fabian Zetterlund (Sharks, 25)*

Left-Shot Defensemen

Alexander Alexeyev (Capitals, 25)*
Kevin Bahl (Flames, 25)*
Ole Julian Bjørgvik-Holm (Blue Jackets, 23)
Tobias Björnfot (Panthers, 24)*
Samuel Bolduc (Islanders, 24)*
Erik Brännström (Avalanche, 25)*
Bowen Byram (Sabres, 24)*
Michael Callahan (Bruins, 25)*
Lukas Cormier (Golden Knights, 23)
Ryker Evans (Kraken, 23)
Domenick Fensore (Hurricanes, 23)
Nicolas Hague (Golden Knights, 26)*
Hardy Haman Aktell (Capitals, 26)*
Jordan Harris (Canadiens, 25)*
Santeri Hatakka (Devils, 24)
Akito Hirose (Canucks, 26)*
Noel Hoefenmayer (Oilers, 26)*
Luke Hughes (Devils, 21)
Daemon Hunt (Wild, 23)
Albert Johansson (Red Wings, 24)
Ryan Johnson (Sabres, 23)
Zachary Jones (Rangers, 24)*
Pierre-Olivier Joseph (Blues, 26)*
Wyatt Kaiser (Blackhawks, 22)
Tyler Kleven (Senators, 23)
Samuel Knazko (Blue Jackets, 22)
Mikko Kokkonen (Maple Leafs, 24)
Filip Král (Penguins, 25)
Cole Krygier (Kings, 25)
Mason Lohrei (Bruins, 24)
John Ludvig (Penguins, 24)*
Anton Malmström (Blues, 25)
K’Andre Miller (Rangers, 25)*
Daniil Misyul (Devils, 24)*
Travis Mitchell (Islanders, 25)
Shakir Mukhamadullin (Sharks, 23)
Ryan O’Rourke (Wild, 23)
Scott Perunovich (Blues, 26)*
Isaak Phillips (Blackhawks, 23)
Jérémie Poirier (Flames, 23)
Valtteri Pulli (Sharks, 24)*
Matthew Robertson (Rangers, 24)
Alexander Romanov (Islanders, 25)*
Filip Roos (Senators, 26)*
Dylan Samberg (Jets, 26)*
Donovan Sebrango (Senators, 23)
Ronan Seeley (Hurricanes, 22)
Ty Smith (Hurricanes, 25)*
Nathan Staios (Panthers, 24)
Jayden Struble (Canadiens, 23)
William Trudeau (Canadiens, 22)
Tyler Tucker (Blues, 25)*
Zachary Uens (Panthers, 24)
Urho Vaakanainen (Ducks, 26)*
Eemil Viro (Red Wings, 23)
Adam Wilsby (Predators, 24)*
Cameron York (Flyers, 24)*

Right-Shot Defensemen

Ronald Attard (Flyers, 26)*
Tyrel Bauer (Jets, 23)
Drew Bavaro (Bruins, 25)
Michael Benning (Panthers, 23)
Jacob Bernard-Docker (Senators, 25)*
Adam Boqvist (Panthers, 24)*
Evan Bouchard (Oilers, 25)*
Cole Clayton (Blue Jackets, 25)
Louis Crevier (Blackhawks, 24)
Maxwell Crozier (Lightning, 25)
Noah Dobson (Islanders, 25)*
Christian Felton (Canucks, 25)
Cale Fleury (Kraken, 26)*
Aidan Fulp (Islanders, 25)
Helge Grans (Flyers, 23)
Max Guenette (Senators, 24)
Drew Helleson (Ducks, 24)
Anttoni Honka (Hurricanes, 24)*
Philip Kemp (Oilers, 26)*
Gustav Lindström (Canadiens, 26)*
Jake Livingstone (Predators, 26)*
Nils Lundkvist (Stars, 24)*
Simon Lundmark (Jets, 24)
Sam Malinski (Avalanche, 26)*
Nikolas Matinpalo (Senators, 26)*
Cole McWard (Canucks, 24)
Ian Mitchell (Bruins, 26)*
Topi Niemelä (Maple Leafs, 23)
Montana Onyebuchi (Utah, 25)*
Brayden Pachal (Flames, 25)*
Luke Prokop (Predators, 23)
Alec Regula (Bruins, 24)*
Hunter Skinner (Blues, 24)
Jack Thompson (Sharks, 23)
Conor Timmins (Maple Leafs, 26)*
Antti Tuomisto (Red Wings, 24)*
William Villeneuve (Maple Leafs, 23)
Jett Woo (Canucks, 24)*

Goaltenders

Gage Alexander (Red Wings, 23)
Garin Bjorklund (Capitals, 23)
Talyn Boyko (Rangers, 22)
Magnus Chrona (Sharks, 24)
Calle Clang (Ducks, 23)
Will Cranley (Blues, 23)
Jakub Dobes (Canadiens, 24)
Lukáš Dostál (Ducks, 25)*
Colten Ellis (Blues, 24)
Dylan Garand (Rangers, 23)
Taylor Gauthier (Penguins, 24)
Mitchell Gibson (Capitals, 26)*
Dennis Hildeby (Maple Leafs, 23)
Joel Hofer (Blues, 24)*
Waltteri Ignatjew (Flames, 25)
Ben Kraws (Stars, 24)
Devon Levi (Sabres, 23)
Kevin Mandolese (Avalanche, 24)*
Leevi Merilainen (Senators, 22)
Trent Miner (Avalanche, 24)
Yaniv Perets (Hurricanes, 25)
Rémi Poirier (Stars, 23)
Isaac Poulter (Devils, 23)*
Cayden Primeau (Canadiens, 25)*
Olivier Rodrigue (Oilers, 25)*
Georgii Romanov (Sharks, 25)
Isaiah Saville (Golden Knights, 24)
Jakub Skarek (Islanders, 25)*
Arvid Söderblom (Blackhawks, 25)*
Jaxson Stauber (Utah, 26)
Daniil Tarasov (Blue Jackets, 26)*
Nikita Tolopilo (Canucks, 25)
Vadim Zherenko (Blues, 24)

PHR’s 2024 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

July 21, 2024 at 6:55 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 22 Comments

Originally published June 27.

The past two weeks have already seen the offseason enter a period of high activity. But unlike last year, many big-ticket names remain available with just four days left to go until July 1. There’s only been a handful of last-minute re-signings, and while there’s sure to be more before the market opens, most of the top names look to be available.

With multiple first-line forwards and top-pair defenders available, this year’s class is one of the strongest in recent memory. That makes this one of the most fun Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents lists we at PHR have put together in our nine years of this exercise. As a reminder, our rankings and predictions are voted on by the entirety of our writing team based on a combination of talent perception and expected demand.

All predictions are independent and have no bearing on each other, while each player is presumed to be signing a one-way contract. Due to this year’s compact offseason schedule, voting was done before the buyout window opened and the June 30 qualifying offer deadline.

1. Jake Guentzel / Vancouver Canucks / 7 years, $9.15MM AAV

Josh Erickson: He split number-one votes with Reinhart and even Stamkos among each of our writers, but he wins the spot on our list thanks to everyone having him in their top two. Other than the aging Stamkos, he’s the only player hitting the market who’s been a top-line force practically since making his NHL debut, consistently solidifying himself as one of the best complementary wingers in the league. His routine point-per-game performances have continued into his late 20s as the top wingman for Sidney Crosby and, for a small stretch this season, Sebastian Aho in Carolina. He may not earn as much dough as Reinhart this summer, as he’s not coming off a 57-goal regular season, but a fourth point-per-game campaign and a strong stretch of post-deadline play away from Crosby still positions himself to earn a rich long-term deal.

Signed with Tampa Bay, seven years, $63MM ($9MM AAV)

2. Sam Reinhart / Florida Panthers / 8 years, $9.25MM AAV

Brian La Rose: Reinhart saw his production drop in his second season with Florida in 2022-23, so the Panthers didn’t know what to expect as he went into his walk year. He wound up rebounding in then some, exploding for a career-best 57 goals and 94 points while also finishing fourth in Selke Trophy voting. Now established as a true top-line threat, the 28-year-old is well-positioned for a long-term, big-money contract and should be one of the highest-paid players in this year’s market.

Re-signed in Florida, eight years, $69MM ($8.625MM AAV)

3. Steven Stamkos / Tampa Bay Lightning / 3 years, $6.75MM AAV

Gabriel Foley: Stamkos will be the headliner of this year’s free agency solely because it could mark an end to his legendary 16-year career with the Lightning. Stamkos has done everything and then some since being drafted first overall in 2008, recording 50 and 60-goal seasons, rivaling and breaking 100 points, captaining multiple Stanley Cup wins, and ultimately totaling 555 goals, 1,137 points, and 1,082 games with the club – the franchise record for all three stats. There will be talks of Hall of Fame, jersey retirement, and maybe even a statue whenever Stamkos chooses to retire – but now doesn’t seem to be the right time. Instead, the legendary forward will look to build off a fantastic 40 goals and 81 points this season. Whether or not his encore will come with the Lightning will be the premier question of the summer.

Signed with Nashville, four years, $32MM ($8MM AAV)

4. Brandon Montour / Utah Hockey Club / 6 years, $7.15MM AAV

Josh: After a tough go of things with the Sabres a few years back, Montour has re-established himself as a top-pairing threat with the Panthers. A second-round pick of the Ducks back in 2014, he’s one year removed from a 16-goal, 73-point campaign that spurred Norris nomination consideration and a strong showing in the Panthers’ first trip to the Stanley Cup Final in nearly 20 years. He’s helped them back to the championship series this season, but a shoulder injury that cost him the first weeks of the campaign plus decreased offensive output (0.50 points per game, down from 0.91), means he’s not in line for an exorbitantly high price tag. He still checks in as the highest-ranked defenseman on our list, and after averaging over 23 minutes per game in back-to-back years, we project him as the highest-paid, too.

Signed with Seattle, seven years, $50MM ($7.14MM AAV)

5. Matt Duchene / Dallas Stars / 3 years, $5MM AAV

Gabriel: The Stars’ offense had a special way of elevating its stars this season, leading six different players to 60 or more points, including Duchene. That makes his 25-goal, 40-assist performance a bit hard to discern, though there’s no denying how encouraging it is to see the 33-year-old continuing to score at a high level. He’s now recorded 207 points across his last 229 games, stretching back to the 2021-22 season – making him one of the summer’s most valuable free agents, even despite being one of the oldest. Duchene seems destined to return to the invaluable second-line role he filled this summer, though the quick emergence of prospects Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque could quickly crowd Dallas’ lineup.

Re-signed in Dallas, one year, $3MM

6. Jonathan Marchessault / Vegas Golden Knights / 3 years, $6MM AAV

Josh: Marchessault remains one of the most puzzling expansion draft decisions from the process that led to the Golden Knights’ inaugural roster, as he was left exposed by the Panthers after a breakout 30-goal campaign. The diminutive late bloomer has since established himself as arguably the most important player in Vegas franchise history, averaging north of 0.80 points per game across seven years in Nevada and taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy during their first Stanley Cup win in 2023. It’ll be difficult to find the cap space to retain him after a career-best 42 goals this season, but some cap-clearing trades in order to retain him are expected. If they can’t make a deal work, though, he’ll be a strong secondary option for teams who miss out on the top few wingers available.

Signed with Nashville, five years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

7. Elias Lindholm / Boston Bruins / 6 years, $7MM AAV

Brennan McClain: It was a tale of three seasons for Lindholm after a trade before the All-Star Break landed him with the third team of his career. After being acquired by the Vancouver Canucks, Lindholm recorded just six goals and 12 points in 26 games and saw his name pop up in trade rumors once again toward the trade deadline. Lindholm’s stock rose dramatically in the playoffs as the centerman led a second-line unit of Dakota Joshua and Conor Garland, which quickly became the most dominant line on the team. With the Canucks only owning around $16MM in cap space to retain nine players, Lindholm’s expected salary will have him looking for greener pastures once free agency opens up.

Signed with Boston, seven years, $54.25MM ($7.75MM AAV)

8. Brady Skjei / Carolina Hurricanes / 6 years, $7MM AAV

Brian: Skjei is the best left-shot defender in this year’s free-agent class. Over the last three seasons, he has established himself as a quality offensive weapon and a strong possession player, making him a true all-situations blueliner. The 30-year-old isn’t a true number-one defender, but there will undoubtedly be teams viewing him as a solid second option, giving him a shot at a max-term agreement and a sizable raise from the $5.25MM he made for the past six years.

Signed with Nashville, seven years, $49MM ($7MM AAV)

9. Teuvo Teräväinen / New York Islanders / 5 years, $5.25MM AAV

Brennan: Overshadowed by many of his peers in a strong Hurricanes organization, Teräväinen represents one of the craftier forward options on the free agent market this summer. He has long been known as a pass-first option on the wing but can be expected to score around the 20-goal mark each season. Outside of the topical categories, Teräväinen is a dream player for any team’s analytical department, consistently controlling possession quality at even strength over his 11-year career. The veteran forward can help nearly any organization in the possession game and should have a wide range of suitors this summer.

Signed with Chicago, three years, $16.2MM ($5.4MM AAV)

10. Brett Pesce / Toronto Maple Leafs / 6 years, $5.75MM AAV

Brennan: Pesce will see his earning power drop somewhat after a difficult 2023-24 season. The veteran defenseman scored three goals and 13 points in 70 games for the Hurricanes in a year that saw his typical production on the score sheet cut in half. Still, Pesce holds value as a right-handed defenseman who carries strong numbers in his possession and defensive metrics. It would be unlikely to see Pesce command longer than a four-year contract this summer, but they should have several suitors that need a stronger defensive presence in their top-four defensive pairings.

Signed with New Jersey, six years, $33MM ($5.5MM AAV)

11. Patrick Kane / Detroit Red Wings / 2 years, $5MM AAV

Gabriel: Kane made an unexpectedly triumphant return from hip resurfacing surgery this season, joining the Red Wings in November and settling into a fine role on the team’s second line. Kane looked like his usual self despite the injury, scoring 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games but remaining a liability off of the puck. Despite near point-per-game scoring, it seems Kane is once again set for free agency just six months after his last contract. His last negotiations were drawn out and only resulted in a one-year deal. Kane showed he can still play after an intensive surgery – though his continued lapses defensively and eligibility for a 35+ contract will likely keep him committed to something short-term.

Re-signed in Detroit, one year, $4MM cap hit ($6.5MM AAV including performance bonuses)

12. Tyler Toffoli / Los Angeles Kings / 4 years, $5.75MM AAV

Gabriel: Through criticism and inconsistency, Toffoli has found a way to cement himself as a strong middle-six scorer over the last two seasons, posting 34 and 33 goals, respectively. Those tallies have come despite playing for three different teams over the stretch, including most recently with the Jets, where Toffoli posted seven goals and 11 points in 18 games. He may not be among the NHL’s flashiest, but he’s proven recently consistent, offering goal-scoring from the third line that’s hard to find. At 32, Toffoli’s next deal will likely take him through the majority of his remaining career unless he opts to continue his short-term moves after playing for four different clubs over the last three seasons.

Signed with San Jose, four years, $24MM ($6MM AAV)

13. Chandler Stephenson / Seattle Kraken / 5 years, $5.6MM AAV

Josh: Stephenson is one of many over the past seven years who’s found his game after being acquired by the Golden Knights. Now a bona fide top-six forward with a career 52.6% faceoff win percentage and a history of good possession numbers, he’ll have more than a few suitors if he remains unsigned come July 1. He was shifted to the wing at times this season amid a bit of a down year but still managed 16 goals and 51 points in 75 games after putting up back-to-back 60-point campaigns. In a relatively weak UFA center market, expect him to return to the middle next season for a team looking for top-six help.

Signed with Seattle, seven years, $43.75MM ($6.25MM AAV)

14. Sean Monahan / Winnipeg Jets / 4 years, $4.75MM AAV

Brian: Monahan is one of the more intriguing middlemen this time out. Last year, he was coming off another injury-riddled campaign, leading to a low-cost one-year agreement to show he can stay healthy. Mission accomplished on that front as he led the league with 83 games played this season, having played in every available contest with Montreal and Winnipeg. He did well on the second line with both franchises and played well enough to get a significant raise with term, but his long injury history makes him a potential wild card on the open market.

Signed with Columbus, five years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

15. Vladimir Tarasenko / Seattle Kraken / 3 years, $5MM AAV

Gabriel: Tarasenko has gone on a tour around the NHL over the last two seasons, ending an 11-year career with the Blues with a 2023 trade to the New York Rangers, followed by a summer signing with the Senators, and then another trade to the Panthers at this year’s trade deadline. He’s maintained his reliable scoring through the moves, totaling 31 goals and 76 points across a combined 107 games with the trio of teams. He’s also tallied five goals and nine points in 21 games this postseason, chasing the second Stanley Cup of his career with Florida. Tarasenko is one of the market’s older names at 32, but his production has shown no signs of aging. He’ll offer strong middle-six value on the open market, with the added perk of being one of the market’s few Stanley Cup winners.

Signed with Detroit, two years, $9.5MM ($4.75MM AAV)

16. Jake DeBrusk / Montreal Canadiens / 5 years, $5.5MM AAV

Josh: DeBrusk has been both satisfyingly clutch and frustratingly inconsistent during his time in Boston, which began when the Bruins selected him 14th overall in the 2015 draft. He’s been one of the team’s best playoff performers over the past two seasons, racking up nine goals and 17 points in 20 games. However, his point production has varied wildly from season to season, topping out with a 27-goal, 50-point showing during Boston’s record-breaking 2022-23 season. That was in just 64 games, though, and he didn’t sniff those totals this year despite playing in 80 contests. He does have good size at 6’0″ and nearly 200 lbs, though, and has never had a negative expected rating in his career.

Signed with Vancouver, seven years, $38.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

17. Joe Pavelski / Retirement

Josh: What a career it likely was for Pavelski, who told reporters early this month that he expects to retire. If he does have one more NHL season left in him, it’s hard to imagine the 39-year-old returning to the Stars for one last ride on a team brimming with championship potential after back-to-back Western Conference Final appearances. 40 in July, he still managed 27 goals and 67 points while playing in all 82 games this year, his fourth straight season without missing any action.

Retired

18. Shayne Gostisbehere / Chicago Blackhawks / 3 years, $4.95MM AAV

Josh: Gostisbehere’s defensive shortcomings have always limited his market value. Last summer was no different, settling for a decently rich but brief one-year, $4.125MM deal with the Red Wings. It turned out to be a great decision for the 10-year veteran, who superseded Moritz Seider as Detroit’s top power play option and had 56 points in 81 games, the second-most of his career. He didn’t log top-four minutes at even strength, though, and it’ll likely keep him from earning the $5MM-plus annually that his point totals from the backend would normally garner. However, he should still earn a multi-year commitment with a modest raise from last season’s cap hit from a team looking to add an impactful offensive talent on its blue line.

Signed with Carolina, three years, $9.6MM ($3.2MM AAV)

19. Tyler Bertuzzi / Toronto Maple Leafs / 4 years, $5MM AAV

Brennan: Nearly a sunk cost after the Maple Leafs inked Bertuzzi to a one-year, $5.5MM contract last summer, Bertuzzi rebounded nicely in the back half of the year. The gritty forward scored 10 goals and 25 points over the team’s last 40 games of the regular season in a year that saw Bertuzzi eclipse 70 games played for the first time since 2019-20. Bertuzzi also saw his physicality pick up this year, throwing 98 hits on the season which marks a career high. If Bertuzzi can keep healthy, he will be a good bet to land a multi-year contract near or above his most recent AAV in Toronto.

Signed with Chicago, four years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)

20. Matt Roy / Toronto Maple Leafs / 5 years, $5.25MM AAV

Gabriel: Roy may have a bid in the race for the ‘most underrated’ superlative, with many forgetting how his performances helped revitalize Drew Doughty in 2022. Roy has emerged as a fantastically stout defender for Los Angeles, filling upwards of 25 minutes a night with strong two-way play and physicality, though he’s only managed a career-high of 26 points. Still, he’s massively outperformed his seventh-round selection in 2015 and will enter the open market as a defender with top-pairing upside. That will garner plenty of interest, though Roy could still lean for a reunion, having so far spent the entirety of his six-year career with the Kings.

Signed with Washington, six years, $34.5MM ($5.75MM AAV)

21. Viktor Arvidsson / Calgary Flames / 3 years, $4.4MM AAV

Josh: It was a difficult season for Arvidsson, who missed the first 52 games of the season after undergoing back surgery and endured another lengthy absence due to a lower-body injury closer to the trade deadline. All in all, the Swedish sniper played in only 18 games in the regular season. He was great when healthy, though, and his 15 points in 18 games tied his highest single-season points per game mark (0.83). He hasn’t managed to reach 30 goals in a Kings jersey after hitting the mark twice in Nashville, though, and all indications point to him landing elsewhere next month. The top-six fixture for most of the last decade should be a good value pickup for somebody if he can avoid the injury bug moving forward.

Signed with Edmonton, two years, $8MM ($4MM AAV)

22. Nikita Zadorov / Vancouver Canucks / 6 years, $4.85MM AAV

Gabriel: Zadorov was traded to the Canucks in November, ending a tenure with the Flames that quickly turned tumultuous. But he rediscovered his high-event style in Vancouver, posting five goals, 14 points, and 102 penalty minutes in 54 games with the club. Most importantly, he showed up when the team needed it, recording eight points and 26 penalty minutes in 13 postseason games. Zadorov has expressed interest in returning to Vancouver, saying he expects a much better stat line once he becomes more comfortable with the team’s systems. But Vancouver might be running a bit short on funds after handing out a hefty extension to Filip Hronek. Zadorov’s vocal press conferences and high PIMs may make him a bit less popular than his peers on the open market, but there’d still be no shortage of interest in his stout second-pairing upside.

Signed with Boston, six years, $30MM ($5MM AAV)

23. Sean Walker / San Jose Sharks / 4 years, $4.65MM AAV

Josh: Walker is coming off a breakout season that saw him hit double-digit goals from the blue line. He also was a big part of the Flyers’ unexpected early-season success, controlling play exceptionally well on a depth pairing with Nick Seeler. His strong first half landed Philly a first-round pick for him at the trade deadline, while Walker headed off to a secure playoff team in Colorado. Things went well for Walker in the regular season, contributing four goals and seven points in 18 games in an Avs jersey, but he struggled to carve out minutes behind Samuel Girard, Cale Makar and Devon Toews. A pointless run in 11 postseason games ended his season on a low note, but there will be multiple suitors this summer betting on him as a mobile, adept two-way presence for their second pairing.

Signed with Carolina, five years, $18MM ($3.6MM AAV)

24. Adam Henrique / Buffalo Sabres / 3 years, $4.25MM AAV

Josh: Henrique is now firmly in ’Old Guy Without A Cup’ territory after falling tantalizingly short of a title with the Oilers this year. The 34-year-old totaled 24 goals and 51 points in 82 games split between Edmonton and Anaheim and is still a high-end complementary middle-six piece who can comfortably log 15 minutes per game. The threat of sudden decline, given his age, is a real risk, though.

Signed with Edmonton, two years, $6MM ($3MM AAV)

25. Chris Tanev / Dallas Stars / 3 years, $4.75MM AAV

Brian: Tanev is never going to be mistaken for an offensive defenseman. Instead, he’s as throwback of a shutdown defender as there is in the NHL today. He’s strong at limiting scoring chances, kills penalties, and throws himself in front of as many pucks as he can. Notably, after some injury-riddled seasons in his late 20s, the 34-year-old has been much more durable in recent years. With a strong playoff performance and there being few players like him out there, his market will be quite strong even with the limited offensive output.

Signed with Toronto, six years, $27MM ($4.5MM AAV)

26. Max Domi / Toronto Maple Leafs / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV

Josh: A late-season injury to Mitch Marner meant more opportunity for Domi, who slotted in on the wing alongside Auston Matthews after playing most of 2023-24 as the Leafs’ third-line center. He continued a strong year in the playmaking department, finishing the campaign with 38 assists. But Domi managed only nine goals after recording 20 with the Blackhawks and Stars last season, limiting his ability to cash in on a long-term deal this summer. He also had the most undisciplined season of his career, taking away some of his offensive value with 118 PIMs.

Re-signed in Toronto, four years, $15MM ($3.75MM AAV)

27. Anthony Mantha / Nashville Predators / 3 years, $4.75MM AAV

Brennan: On the cusp of reaching unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career, Mantha again reached the 20-goal mark after several dismal years in Washington. Acquired by the Golden Knights at the trade deadline for a few draft selections, Mantha returned to mediocrity as Vegas made him a healthy scratch for much of their Round One series against the Dallas Stars. Given that the Golden Knights have little to no cap space to retain Mantha, he will be seeking his third team in two years as a potential secondary scoring threat.

Signed with Calgary, one year, $3.5MM

28. Jonathan Drouin / Colorado Avalanche / 4 years, $4.65MM AAV

Gabriel: Drouin found a home with the Avalanche, finally finding consistent offense after a difficult tenure with the Canadiens. He scored a career-high 56 points this season, including 19 goals, marking the first time since 2018-19 that he’s broken the 50-point mark. Drouin found a spark last season that’s worth chasing again, and he’s expressed strong interest in returning to Colorado as a result. Should he enter the open market, Drouin will likely be searching for a role that features him as prominently as his second-line role with the Avalanche.

Re-signed in Colorado, one year, $2.5MM

29. Anthony Duclair / Pittsburgh Penguins / 3 years, $3.75MM AAV

Josh: Duclair is finishing up a bargain three-year, $9MM deal that saw him hit the 20-goal and 30-goal marks once, although an injury-plagued 2022-23 season limited him to just two snipes in 20 games. He enters the open market on a high note after a deadline deal sent him to the Lightning, where he finished the campaign with eight goals and 15 points in 17 games. He’ll be 29 in August and should be a lock for at least 20 goals per season for the next few years if he stays healthy, making him an ideal second or third-line scoring winger.

Signed with NY Islanders, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)

30. Oliver Ekman-Larsson / Florida Panthers / 3 years, $4MM AAV

Gabriel: Ekman-Larsson found his way out of Vancouver via buyout, instead playing out a one-year deal with the Panthers that seemed to revitalize his career. The 14th-year defenseman posted 32 points and 76 penalty minutes in 80 games – certainly nothing staggering, but the most he’s scored since 2018-19 and a show of potential after two disappointing seasons with the Canucks. At 32, Ekman-Larsson isn’t in much of a position to demand a long-term contract – though he’ll represent a strong option for two-way depth for needy teams.

Signed with Toronto, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)

31. David Perron / Detroit Red Wings / 2 years, $2.95MM AAV

Gabriel: Perron has become easier to anticipate as his career has gone on. After flashes of high scoring and runs to the Stanley Cup earlier in his career, he’s settled into a consistent middle-of-the-lineup role – offering strong goal-scoring down the lineup but hardly inspiring much on defense. Unfortunately, at 36, Perron’s impact is beginning to slip. This season was the first time since 2016-17 that Perron didn’t score 50 points while playing in a full season. Still, he stood as the Red Wings’ seventh-highest scorer this season – and offers reasonable depth offense in limited minutes. The questions around him will focus much more on whether he feels this is the time to hang up the skates – after a career amassing 1,131 games and 768 points. He’ll offer modest offensive upside at a cheap price tag – and the perk of 104 career playoff games and one Stanley Cup – should he want to return.

Signed with Ottawa, two years, $8MM ($4MM AAV)

32. Cam Talbot / Tampa Bay Lightning / 1 year, $2MM (incl. performance bonuses)

Brian: Talbot’s market didn’t materialize as expected last summer, resulting in him taking a one-year, bonus-laden deal with the Kings. It worked out pretty well for both sides as he made 52 starts and put up his lowest GAA (2.50) since 2016-17, a pretty good return on what turned out to be a $2MM investment by Los Angeles. However, Talbot turns 37 in early July, which means he could be going year to year from here on out, and it’s unlikely there will be many teams looking at him as a true starter. But as a short-term backup with some potential to get creative with the structure of the deal, he should have some options in free agency.

Signed with Detroit, two years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

33. Jack Roslovic / San Jose Sharks / 2 years, $3.25MM AAV

Josh: The 27-year-old could be on the move to his fourth team this summer after the Jets made him a first-round pick nine years ago. He was shipped to the Blue Jackets as part of 2021’s Pierre-Luc Dubois/Patrik Laine swap, and while he put up decent offensive numbers (146 points in 246 games), he was never fully trusted by various coaching staffs and had only six goals in 40 games this season before being dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline. There’s definitely some upside with Roslovic’s game – he had 22 goals two seasons ago – but at 33rd on our list, we’re venturing into squarely third-liner territory.

Signed with Carolina, one year, $2.8MM

34. Anthony Stolarz / Nashville Predators / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV

Josh: Stolarz has been one of the better limited-use backups in the league in recent years, boasting a .916 SV% and 23.7 goals saved above average in 82 appearances over the last four seasons. He was one of the best ’tenders in the league straight-up in 2023-24, logging a .925 SV% and 2.03 GAA. Sample size will be a concern for teams looking for needle-movers between the pipes on the open market, though. He’s never started more than 25 games or made more than 30 appearances in a single season in his seven-year NHL career.

Signed with Toronto, two years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

35. Daniel Sprong / Columbus Blue Jackets / 3 years, $3.75MM AAV

Gabriel: After years on the grindstone, Sprong has finally broken through as an impactful producer down the lineup. He proved as much with the Kraken last season, posting 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games, and vindicated it with a 43-point year with the Red Wings this season. He’s by no means an upside swing, but Sprong’s recent show of consistency makes him an intriguing option on the open market.

Signed with Vancouver, one year, $975K

36. Jason Zucker / Nashville Predators / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV

Josh: Zucker’s stock has fallen since his days as a fringe first-liner with the Wild, averaging a career-low 13:49 per game across 69 appearances with the Coyotes and Predators this season. At 32, he’s unlikely for much of a resurgence, but he’s still a serviceable depth scoring option after recording 14 goals and 32 points in 69 games. He’s only one year removed from a 27-goal, 48-point campaign in Pittsburgh, too.

Signed with Buffalo, one year, $5MM

37. Tyler Myers / Vancouver Canucks / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV

Josh: The 34-year-old has faced his fair share of criticism since signing a five-year, $30MM deal in free agency with the Canucks in 2019 that he largely failed to live up to. He’s coming off quite a solid campaign in a reduced role, though. The 2008 first-round pick managed five goals and 29 points in 77 games – his most offensive contributions since 2018-19 – and came close to breaking even in controlling the majority of expected goals when on the ice at even strength. The days of being a top-four lock are behind him, but he has plenty of minute-munching experience that makes him an attractive option as a veteran bottom-pairing presence.

Re-signed in Vancouver, three years, $9MM ($3MM AAV)

38. Laurent Brossoit / Toronto Maple Leafs / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV

Josh: Much like Stolarz, Brossoit is looking for a bigger role this summer after posting solid numbers in backup action the past few years. The 31-year-old is coming off a great year behind Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg that saw him post a .927 SV%, mimicking his performance in third-string duties for the Golden Knights the year prior. He’s been prone to some wild year-to-year swings in the past that may raise some concerns about increasing his workload, though.

Signed with Chicago, two years, $6.6MM ($3.3MM AAV)

39. Ilya Samsonov / Detroit Red Wings / 1 year, $3MM AAV

Josh: Samsonov was riding a high after 2022-23, outperforming compatriot Andrei Vasilevskiy in the postseason en route to Toronto’s first series win in nearly a decade. But he couldn’t carry that forward momentum into this season, watching his numbers nosedive to a .890 SV% and 3.13 GAA in 40 appearances. He did display the ability to be a high-ceiling tandem option with a .919 SV% and 2.33 GAA in 42 games for the Leafs the year prior, though, and the 27-year-old is the youngest option available on the market who has experience shouldering a significant workload.

Signed with Vegas, one year, $1.8MM

40. Erik Gustafsson / New York Islanders / 1 year, $1.5MM AAV

Josh: Gustafsson continues to be a capable puck-moving option lower down on teams’ depth charts. The left-shot Swede has surpassed the 30-point mark three times in his career, including his performances with the Capitals, Maple Leafs and Rangers the past two seasons. He’s never commanded much on the open market, though, thanks to his lack of consistent top-four usage, though, making him a routinely high-value depth pickup. After racking up 25 assists and 31 points in 76 games with the Rags this year with good possession metrics, expect a raise on the one-year, $825K deal he signed with them last summer.

Signed with Detroit, two years, $4MM ($2MM AAV)

41. Alexander Wennberg / Ottawa Senators / 3 years, $3.5MM AAV

Gabriel: Wennberg had a quiet season on the stat sheet, with 30 points in 79 games marking his lowest scoring in a full season since he totaled 25 points in 2018-19. That’s certainly the wrong direction to be moving at the age of 29, though he’s found ways to hedge the decrease by becoming stronger defensively and even taking on modest special teams roles. That’s kept him in the lineup routinely, even through 16 postseason games where Wennberg scored just two points. Wennberg’s role is far from pronounced – likely limiting him to a depth contract this summer.

Signed with San Jose, two years, $10MM ($5MM AAV)

42. T.J. Brodie / San Jose Sharks / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV

Josh: Brodie’s stock has fallen significantly after serving as one of the better shutdown defensemen in the league for the Maple Leafs since signing a four-year, $20MM deal as a free agent in 2020. At first glance, things went okay for the 34-year-old this season, as he again averaged north of 21 minutes per game and had 26 points in 78 games with a +17 rating. But his normally high-end possession metrics took a sizeable step back, and he fell out of favor with former head coach Sheldon Keefe down the stretch and was routinely scratched in the playoffs in favor of Toronto’s trade-deadline pickups on the back end.

Signed with Chicago, two years, $7.5MM ($3.75MM AAV)

43. Alexandre Carrier / Calgary Flames / 3 years, $3.875MM AAV

Josh: Carrier hits the UFA market for the first time as one of the younger options available, with top-four upside still in the question. At 27, he’s had an up-and-down past few years, but he’s coming off a decent 20 points (four goals, 16 assists) in 73 games while logging nearly 19 minutes per game on the Nashville blue line. He was used heavily on the penalty kill this season when in the lineup, and while it’s not his forte, he’s a rather low-risk option who moves well and plays a solid all-around game.

Re-signed with Nashville, three years, $11.25MM ($3.75MM AAV)

44. Brenden Dillon / Boston Bruins / 2 years, $3.6MM AAV

Josh: Let’s call him Chris Tanev-lite. Now 33, Dillon has been a steady second-pairing shutdown force since entering the league with the Stars over a decade ago. He puts up around 20 points nearly every year and is one of the most frequent hitters in the league, usually supporting those results with strong possession numbers. He saw a considerable dip at 5-on-5 this year, though, and posted the worst shot-attempt share (47.8%) of his 13-year career. That’s something to look out for if a team is considering him on a multi-year deal.

Signed in New Jersey, three years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)

45. Warren Foegele / Minnesota Wild / 3 years, $3.55MM AAV

Gabriel: Foegele has always filled a gritty and reliable role in his team’s middle-six, though he seemed to find the best version of his style this year, posting a career-high 20 goals and 41 points in his third season with the Oilers. That scoring has decreased a bit in the postseason – with Foegele boasting just six points through his first 20 games – but his value as an effective third-line winger with special teams upside is very readily apparent. His emergence with this year’s Oilers suggests the best path forward would be to re-sign, though his spikey two-way game will be highly valued on the open market should he make it there.

Signed in Los Angeles, three years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

46. Matt Dumba / Ottawa Senators / 2 years, $3.25MM AAV

Josh: Dumba still carries a fair amount of value stemming from his days as a 40-to-50-point force on the Wild blue line, and there’s still a chance he can rediscover that game if he finds some stability. But the past few seasons haven’t been kind to him. Teams caught onto his decline last summer after his deal in Minnesota expired, and he had to settle for a one-year deal with the Coyotes later in the offseason. He was then arguably the worst NHL regular on the Arizona blue line, limited to 10 points and a -13 rating in 58 games with some of the worst possession numbers on the club. A deadline deal to the Lightning didn’t do anything to repair his value either, logging only two assists through 18 games. His history of averaging more than 20 minutes per game should earn him some suitors, though.

Signed in Dallas, two years, $7.5MM ($3.75MM AAV)

47. Stefan Noesen / Washington Capitals / 3 years, $3.2MM AAV

Josh: Noesen is one of the biggest question marks in this UFA class. Once a minor-league mainstay, the now-31-year-old has been an invaluable secondary scorer for Carolina in a fourth-line role the past few years. Coming off years with 36 and 37 points while staying healthy, can he keep that type of production going if given more substantial minutes? He’s been a strong playoff performer, too, scoring four times in each of the Hurricanes’ postseason appearances the last two years.

Signed in New Jersey, three years, $8.25MM ($2.75MM AAV)

48. Danton Heinen / Boston Bruins / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV

Josh: Heinen put himself back on the map in his second stint with Boston this season, giving them a strong secondary scoring option after waiting to sign until late October and spending weeks on a tryout. The 28-year-old had 36 points and fell one short of his career-high in goals with 17, often getting looks in the Bruins’ top six. He can play both PP and PK, too, just likely not as a first-unit option.

Signed in Vancouver, two years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)

49. Yakov Trenin / Chicago Blackhawks / 3 years, $2.33MM AAV

Josh: Trenin’s as throwback of a checking forward as they come. After spending nearly a decade in the Predators organization, he was dealt to the Avalanche at this year’s trade deadline, where he had two goals and an assist in 16 games down the stretch while averaging 12:44 per game. The 6’2″, 201-lb Russian can play all three forward positions, although he struggles in the faceoff dot (43.0 career FOW%). He’s had double-digit goals and 150-plus hits for three years in a row, though, and has good defensive impacts for his relatively difficult usage as well.

Signed in Minnesota, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)

50. Matt Grzelcyk / Seattle Kraken / 3 years, $3.2MM AAV

Josh: A longtime partner to Bruins star Charlie McAvoy, Grzelcyk wraps up a four-year, $14.75MM deal with his value at its lowest in a while. He struggled with injuries this year, was limited to 63 games, and was challenged heavily for top-four usage by rookie Mason Lohrei. When healthy, though, he’s a relatively consistent lock for around 20 points and eats up 17 to 19 minutes per game. Aside from this season, possession play has been a historic strength of his, although he’s certainly benefitted from a good chunk of playing time spent alongside McAvoy.

Signed in Pittsburgh, one year, $2.75MM

Featured collage courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Sabres’ Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen An Emerging Starter Amid Competition

July 19, 2024 at 7:43 pm CDT | by Gabriel Foley 7 Comments

The Buffalo Sabres faced an exciting question entering the 2023-24 season – “how high will Devon Levi climb?” It seemed like Levi was set for certain stardom coming off a historically good collegiate career, with some even claiming him as a pre-season favorite for the Calder Trophy opposite Connor Bedard. But Levi’s first full year of pro hockey proved to be much more human than anticipated, and it was Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who stole Buffalo’s starting role while Levi split time between the NHL backup and AHL starter roles. Luukkonen performed well in the spotlight, managing 27 wins, a .910 save percentage, and five shutouts while handling a commendable 54 games. Now, nearly a month into the off-season, Luukkonen sits as an unsigned restricted free agent and Buffalo faces a new, much bleaker question: “who is our starter?”

The clearest answer seems to be Luukkonen, who’s still just 25 years old and coming off a year that would make any starter proud. It’s been a long march for the Finnish netminder, who struggled to find his footing through his first three years in North American pros. He kicked off his career by earning an AHL promotion on the back of 23 strong ECHL games, though he’d stall out with the Rochester Americans, ultimately recording a bleak .894 save percentage in 60 AHL games between the start of the 2018-19 and the end of the 2021-22 seasons.

But injuries forced Buffalo to recall Luukkonen twice in 2021, ultimately awarding him the first 13 NHL games of his career. He performed well in the spot starts, managing a .913 save percentage despite winning just three games. That was a bright enough flash to earn him a share of backup minutes in the 2022-23 campaign – an opportunity that he took in stride. In a reverse of his early stat line, Luukkonen found strong success in the win column despite a sub-.900 save percentage, posting a team-leading 17 wins and standing as the only Sabres goaltender with a winning record that year. His winning tendencies and strong stat lines merged in the starting role this year, ultimately leading to a season that was hard to ignore. Luukkonen’s 27 wins stand as the most of any Sabres goaltender since Ryan Miller in 2012, and his .910 save percentage is the team’s highest since Robin Lehner in 2017.

Simply put, it’s been a while since Buffalo has seen a goalie season as capable as Luukkonen’s 2023-24 campaign. The team now faces the dreaded task of putting a price to the starring performance, without much supplementary info to go on. Levi’s presence only makes Buffalo’s decision harder. The 22-year-old top prospect managed a .899 save percentage in 23 games as an NHL rookie this season – certainly nothing to bluff at – and a .927 in 26 AHL games – the second-highest save percentage in the minors. Levi still carries a blue chip, even if his highly-anticipated rookie year fell short of the history books. Any long-term extension for Luukkonen would have to consider Levi’s rightful shot at opportunity. And while Buffalo can dream of a perfectly balanced duo akin to Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, it seems more likely that each of Luukonen and Levi’s success comes on the back of a consistent role.

So what could a new deal look like for Luukkonen – and what kind of time share is awaiting him? Thatcher Demko is currently riding a five-year, $25MM extension earned after a pair of limited but promising seasons with the Vancouver Canucks where he managed 29 wins and a .910 save percentage across 62 games. That falls closely in line with Luukkonen’s strong 2023-24, though Demko carried the prestige of a higher draft pick and stronger track record. The Sabres could instead vie for a deal more comparable to Alexandar Georgiev – who joined the Colorado Avalanche on a three-year, $10.2MM deal in 2022 after holding well in the New York Rangers backup role. Like Demko and Luukkonen, Georgiev’s deal came with little to go on, save for a strong stat line in limited minutes.

Unfortunately for the Sabres, both Demko and Georgiev followed their signings with 60-game seasons – and both performed well with the opportunity. That precedent, and Buffalo’s plea for strong consistency in net after so long without it, could force the Sabres to commit to a full year of Luukkonen. That would set them up for a situation more closely related to Nashville’s than Boston’s, with a top-end, young goaltender burgeoning out of the AHL starter role, but an all-too-capable starter hogging the limelight. Or the Sabres may bridge the gap between the two teams – a benefit of a nearby AHL team – finding ways to incorporate Levi into the lineup whenever available, while still honoring Luukkonen’s deserved chance at a full-time role. Either way, the team’s vision for their goaltending will be spelled out by the contract they sign Luukkonen to – and it will be a decision with major ramifications.

2025 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

July 19, 2024 at 9:45 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 2 Comments

The following players are currently projected to be eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2024-25 season. Each player’s 2025 age is in parentheses.

For a list of current unrestricted free agents, click here.

* denotes likely Group 6 UFA

Updated 11/15/24 (12:45pm CT)

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Hayton, Offseason, Bertuzzi, Red Wings, Lightning, McGroarty

July 13, 2024 at 2:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 15 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s left to look forward to this summer after a wild start to free agency, Detroit’s surprisingly quiet offseason, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

DirtbagBlues: What are the odds Vegas trades from their blue line depth for a top-six winger? Who could they target?

This is largely a toss-up question for me. If the Golden Knights do that, they’re weakening their back end as it’s not the depth players like Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud who are going to bring back a legitimate top-six forward. If they don’t, their forward group isn’t going to look anywhere near as strong as it did just last season. There’s no right answer here; it comes down to which area do they think could be easier to address in-season. For me, that’s the forward group so I’d put the odds at 40%.

For the first part of the season, I suspect Vegas will want to see what they have. Can Alexander Holtz find a new gear with a new team and a new system? Can Victor Olofsson lock down a regular spot? I could see Nicolas Roy getting a chance to play on the wing in the top six as well with Brett Howden anchoring the fourth line. Maybe William Karlsson gets a shot on the wing with Roy centring the third line. Brendan Brisson could get a chance. If they hit with one of those, they’re in much better shape. They don’t have that many options defensively which is why I think they lean this way.

Now, you asked who they could target if they moved a defenseman out so I’ll play along. Personally, I feel like they’re a dark horse for Martin Necas. If they’re going after a legitimate piece, I think it costs them Shea Theodore. They have enough LTIR space remaining using Robin Lehner’s expected placement on there to cover the gap between Theodore’s $5.2MM and what Necas’ next deal should cost. It probably takes both players agreeing to new deals before a trade is finalized but that could be an interesting one.

Failing that, Nikolaj Ehlers feels like another target although that could be more of a rental-for-rental type of swap. Patrik Laine is in play but I don’t see Columbus eating half the contract and without that, he’s probably too hard to fit in. There aren’t many viable options though, not with a lot of teams likely done their heavy lifting already.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Hayton for Liljegren and a 5th, who says no?

It’s an interesting idea, two players who their current teams have been patient with but haven’t quite been able to make the consistent impact that their draft slots would suggest. For a deal like this, the late-round draft pick is largely meaningless; generally speaking, a team isn’t going to part with what they perceive is a slightly better player because they’re getting a fifth-round pick back. For all intents and purposes, the teams would be evaluating this as a one-for-one idea.

For Toronto, getting Barrett Hayton would give them some extra center depth, giving them the chance to shift Max Domi to the wing or perhaps Hayton himself. They’d have some desirable flexibility at a minimum. Perhaps more importantly, they’d have a bit more insurance down the middle with John Tavares a year away from UFA eligibility. While their right-shot defensive depth would be thinned out more – especially with Jani Hakanpaa’s deal still not yet registered amid speculation about concern over his knee injury – I think the good outweighs the bad, including $350K in cap savings. I think they say yes.

I’m less sure that Utah would, however. They have Sean Durzi and newly-acquired John Marino in their top two spots on the right side of their back end. Now, they’re parting with Hayton to upgrade their third pairing. I think they can accomplish that objective without necessarily moving Hayton to do that, especially with nearly $10MM in cap room to work with still, per PuckPedia. I suspect they’d rather explore alternate ways to fill out their third pairing or defensive depth, ones that wouldn’t see them parting with a roster forward in the process. Value-wise, it’s pretty good but I think Utah says no here.

Schwa: With most of the UFAs signed already, is this going to be a very boring offseason? Or do you foresee any big trades or otherwise coming between now and training camp?

We’re at the point of the offseason where things are going to get really slow. Yes, it’ll probably come in on the boring side most days but there are some things worth keeping an eye on.

On the trade front, what happens with Necas, Laine, Ehlers, and Trevor Zegras, among others? Those are all notable moves that could happen. I feel like Detroit (more on them shortly) has something coming. Montreal is still believed to be sniffing around a move up front. While Winnipeg could be moving Ehlers, it feels like they need to add up front as well. With no truly prominent free agents remaining, there’s no real domino that needs to fall for any of these moves to happen (Laine exiting the Player Assistance Program feels like the first possible one to get things going) so these may take a while.

I’m also intrigued about some of the extension-eligible players. What happens with Leon Draisaitl and the GM-less Oilers, especially with an implied desire to not negotiate in-season? Does Sidney Crosby get his deal done? Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Mitch Marner are all eligible as well. It’s doubtful all of these players put pen to paper on new deals by training camp but we could see a few which could make things interesting.

Unclemike1526: Everybody is trying to make a big deal about Nick Foligno talking to Tyler Bertuzzi on the phone and calling it tampering. Since they’re from the same town and seem to be friends so what? I mean players talk to each other. It’s been going on in Basketball for years and nobody bats an eye. Isn’t there some sort of “legal communication” period before free agency anyway? Bertuzzi wasn’t going back where he was because of the cap so what is the real story?

Let me answer these out of order. There is no longer a pre-free agency communication period. Officially, no contact of any kind is to be had with pending free agents until July 1st at 11 AM CT. I’m not sure a single team even came close to abiding to that based on what happened on July 1st but that’s what the NHL would have us believe. (As an aside, the penalties the NBA put in for tampering the last couple of years really slowed down the start of the market in that league compared to the free-for-all it was in the past or at least slowed down the leaks of pre-arranged deals once the window opened up on June 30th.)

That Foligno talked to Bertuzzi isn’t a point of concern on its own. Players can unofficially try to recruit potential free agents by talking about all of the good things about the market, schools for their kids, how nice it is to play for a certain coach, etc. All of that is fine. Speak in general terms and there’s no issue.

But Bertuzzi’s admission that Chicago wasn’t on his radar until Foligno told him Chicago was interested isn’t speaking in general terms. As soon as Foligno allegedly told Bertuzzi before the market opened up that the Blackhawks had interest, he was relaying a message from management indicating interest to a prospective free agent before legal communication could begin. That is indeed tampering.

Think of it this way. If Foligno told Bertuzzi that he should come to Chicago, it’s a good place to play and there’s lots you’ll like, that’s fine. If he said it’s a good place to play, there’s lots you’ll like, and they’re putting together a big offer for you, that’s a problem. That’s the difference.

Having said that, there were what, 70 of these contracts that were pretty much done before the market opened up? Toronto had some of those as well so it’s not as if they can cry foul on Bertuzzi knowing they somehow had several contracts finalized mere minutes into free agency. They’re not going to make a fuss about it but if Bertuzzi’s account is truthful, there’s at least a part of it that would qualify as tampering.

tigers22 2: Could the Red Wings have had a worse offseason and the worst most confusing trade to start a year? Why do we have 20 goalies?

It can always be worse. A couple of players go and get long-term injuries while training that costs them considerable time during the regular season, a core piece could ask for a trade, stuff like that. But yes, their offseason so far qualifies as extremely underwhelming.

The Jake Walman trade was surprising on a few fronts. The first is that they opted to get rid of him in the first place over someone like Justin Holl who could barely crack the lineup. If you’re going to part with a fairly high draft pick to move off a contract, shouldn’t it have been him who moved? The second is that it took incentivization to move him in the first place; I thought he had some standalone value. And the third is that the move was made before the corresponding swap was in place.

This is pure speculation on my end but I think this was part of the Jacob Trouba speculated swap, Detroit needed to clear a spot for him and offset some of the money and the Rangers didn’t want to take him back as they wanted the cap space. Yzerman pulled the trigger early, expecting that deal to get done or to use that money elsewhere. Unless you’re counting that money as going to Vladimir Tarasenko (a nice add for them, by the way, to replace Robby Fabbri), that didn’t happen.

If there’s a small silver lining here (and I mean small), it’s that they have enough cap space left to offer long-term deals to Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. This time a month ago, I didn’t think they could do both; I expected a long-term agreement for Seider and a bridge for Raymond. If they both get long-term deals and continue to progress, that could be beneficial down the road. Like I said, that’s a very small silver lining.

As for the seven goaltenders they have under contract, it is a lot. I think they’ve decided to carry three at the NHL level again (Cam Talbot, Alex Lyon, and Ville Husso). Jack Campbell is the veteran to work with Sebastian Cossa at AHL Grand Rapids. Carter Gylander starts at the ECHL level where he can get a number one workload. That’s six and I can make sense of that. The seventh is Gage Alexander and I’m not sure he was necessarily targeted by Detroit. I think he was simply the contract they had to take back in the Fabbri swap with the Ducks getting close to the contract limit. He’s probably ECHL-bound as well but it wouldn’t shock me if he was flipped for a skater down the road.

FeeltheThunder: There is a strong belief that Tampa will make a move to bring in someone through trade to fill the hole (left by Stamkos) on the second line with Cirelli and Hagel but who do you feel they’ll target in making a move for as Cam Atkinson appears to be more third line territory than second line?… Also is there a possibility that blue-chip prospects Conor Geekie or Ethan Gauthier make the team this year?

I heard a little rumbling that Tampa could be interested in acquiring Frank Vatrano from Anaheim. What do you think of this possibility and what would it take for Tampa to get him from Anaheim?

I’m going to combine your two questions here since they’re on the same subject. It definitely feels like the Lightning need to add at least more of a proven offensive player. Atkinson could bounce back but they can’t count on him to be that player.

But here’s the problem. After re-signing J.J. Moser earlier this week, they have barely $730K in cap room, per PuckPedia. That’s not much to work with. Yes, they can drop to a smaller-sized roster which would give them a bit of extra wiggle room but also would leave them in tough shape for when injuries inevitably arise.

I don’t think there’s a great trade target, to be honest. Vatrano makes plenty of sense but he makes $3.65MM. Even if they convinced the Ducks to take Conor Sheary back, there’s still a $1.65MM difference to overcome, well above what they can afford. Anaheim could retain money, sure, but then the acquisition cost comes up. Do they want to move another future first-round pick already? (I don’t think a second-rounder will get it done.) I’m not sure they would.

For me, they’re a dark horse team for Daniel Sprong if his market doesn’t materialize. On a one-year lower-cost deal (think in the $1.4MM range where they’d have to go to a 21-player roster to afford him), he’d be an interesting albeit imperfect fit. But they need secondary offense and he’s the one player left that can provide it.

As for the youngsters, I don’t think Gauthier has much of a chance. It’s junior or Tampa Bay for him and it should be the former. But Geekie is an interesting case. If they make a move to add some scoring help, I think he starts in Syracuse simply because they won’t have enough money to start him with the big club. If they don’t, he should get a long look with the Lightning where they could start him on the wing to ease him in and if all went well, he could possibly fill that void in the top six.

Shjon: What is a reasonable or realistic trade return for Rutger McGroarty at this point? When I first heard about the Utah deal for Sergachev, I was excited to see that franchise making moves like that, again, but then felt disappointed the Jets couldn’t have done something similar involving McGroarty. (and one of Samberg or Heinola….likely higher draft picks) Could Calgary be a player in that way? (Weegar or Andersson) seeing as they seem to be “rebuilding” while afraid to label it such. (?)

I don’t think there’s a big win-now deal out there for McGroarty as Utah tried to do with the Mikhail Sergachev swap. The early speculation was that Minnesota and Montreal were early suitors with their offers being contingent on what happened in the first round of last month’s draft. That tells me the offers were futures-based which seemed to be fine with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff at the time.

That said, now that we know that free agency didn’t exactly go as planned for the Jets, it’s possible that they’ll be more open to pieces that can be difference-makers now instead of later.

However, there aren’t many teams that have win-now pieces to part with, especially since there aren’t any left in free agency to try to backfill with. Calgary is certainly one but would MacKenzie Weegar waive his no-trade clause to go to the Jets? I’m not sure he would. Rasmus Andersson would be a maybe although it’d take more than McGroarty to get him but there could be something there.

But what other rebuilding teams have the type of pieces the Jets could use? Anaheim, San Jose, and Montreal have torn it down and have younger core players with some overpriced veterans so there aren’t many fits there. The best fits with Chicago are younger pieces that still need some development time. Same with Columbus, Utah, and Buffalo, teams that aren’t as much rebuilding now as they are trying to make the playoffs.

That’s why it still comes down to a futures-based return for me, if he moves at all. A first-round pick with a younger roster player is something that more teams will be able to do and Cheveldayoff needs the bigger pool of teams to elicit the best possible return. Maybe a futures-based return in the form of another player around McGroarty’s situation (two years post-draft, near NHL-ready) could work as well. But if the hope is that they can get a proven core player in return for McGroarty, I think they’re going to be disappointed when they come up short on that front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: James Van Riemsdyk

July 12, 2024 at 10:30 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 5 Comments

The free agent market has moved at breakneck speed this offseason. Only two of PHR’s Top 50 UFAs have yet to sign, and only one, winger Daniel Sprong, is expected to play next season. Even beyond the big names, many non-tendered RFAs and cheap veteran names are beginning to find homes, namely Ryan Suter, as he continues his career-long tour of the Central Division. That indicates the market for low-cost names with loads of experience is increasing as teams circle back to make the finishing touches to their rosters in the second wave of free agency.

Offensively, one of those names to watch is James van Riemsdyk, a seven-time 20-goal scorer with an 11.8% shooting percentage across 15 NHL seasons and 1,011 games. He missed our Top 50 cutoff by a few spots, but aside from Joe Pavelski, who hasn’t officially retired yet but is expected to do so, he’s got the most established offensive track record of anyone still available.

For the first 12 years of his career, van Riemsdyk was a bonafide top-six winger and efficient scorer, averaging 0.66 points per game while routinely averaging north of 16 minutes per game. But age caught up to him three years into a five-year, $35MM contract with the Flyers, seeing his production drop to 36 goals, 67 points and a -36 rating in 143 games during his 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns in Philadelphia – less than a half a point per game. That was tough for the Flyers to stomach at his $7MM cap hit, especially considering they’d drafted him second overall in 2007 but missed out on his prime, most of which was spent with the Maple Leafs after they shipped him to Toronto for Luke Schenn in the 2012 offseason in what turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the decade.

Following his quiet end to his tenure in Philly, JVR landed on a cheap one-year, $1MM deal with the Bruins when free agency opened last summer. For the first time in a few seasons, he produced well over his contract value, serving as a valuable depth scorer for a Bruins offense that entered the campaign with many question marks after the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí. His numbers were roughly in line with what he’d done with the Flyers the last few years, scoring 11 goals and 38 points in 71 games, but he did so more efficiently, averaging reduced minutes (13:30 ATOI) compared to his middle-six usage with Philadelphia.

He also managed 142 shots on goal, 23 more than he’d lobbed on the net in 2022-23. Those 11 goals were tied for a career low, but he also shot at a career-low 7.7%, suggesting there’s some rebound potential this year. After turning 35 in May, he’ll also be eligible to sign a contract with performance bonuses, allowing a team close to the salary cap’s $88MM upper limit to keep his initial cap hit low in case he doesn’t pan out.

In line with his solid box stats, van Riemsdyk’s possession quality metrics last season were some of the best of his career. Boston controlled a whopping 60.7% of expected goals with JVR on the ice at even strength. While he wasn’t particularly adept at controlling shot attempts outright, posting a 49.6 CF%, he wasn’t on for very many high-danger chances against, and his two-way play thrived in a Bruins system that actually allowed fewer total expected goals last year than in their record-breaking 135-point 2022-23 season.

With that in mind, JVR presents himself as an attractive candidate who could still likely crush 15 to 20 goals next season in a bottom-six scoring role. He’s likely to be a solid fallback option for interested parties in Sprong that don’t end up landing him.

Stats

2023-24: 71 GP, 11 G, 27 A, 38 P, +7, 20 PIMs, 13:30 ATOI, 49.6 CF%
Career: 1,011 GP, 311 G, 318 A, 629 P, -66, 394 PIMs, 16:11 ATOI, 50.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

van Riemsdyk hasn’t been firmly connected to any teams so far this summer. Given the suddenly shallow market for depth scoring, expect that to change as the weeks progress.

But in terms of speculative fits, it would be unwise to rule out a return to the Bruins. They have $8.64MM in projected cap space for next season remaining, per PuckPedia. Most of that will go toward a new deal for RFA netminder Jeremy Swayman. But as we’ve seen in recent days with Suter, JVR could be amenable to returning on a performance-bonus-laden deal with a league minimum $775K cap hit. It’s a type of contract that Boston general manager Don Sweeney is no stranger to signing as well, executing similar deals with Bergeron and Krejčí in the twilight of their careers to help keep their short-term financial situation as manageable as possible.

There’s still a need for another scoring-oriented winger in the Bruins’ bottom six, especially as an insurance policy in case 2021 first-rounder Fabian Lysell doesn’t crack the roster out of camp. They’ve replenished some offensive depth by signing Max Jones and acquiring Mark Kastelic from the Senators in last month’s Linus Ullmark trade, but both are checking forwards first and foremost with limited upside on the scoresheet.

JVR could also find a place to play in 2023-24 by returning to a former club in free agency for the second time in his career. A reunion with the Leafs, who haven’t made any notable additions at forward this summer, could make sense. Their left-wing depth took a hit when Tyler Bertuzzi departed for the Blackhawks in free agency last summer, and much like he would in Boston, van Riemsdyk could provide veteran insurance in case top prospects Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten, both of whom are expected to challenge for opening night roster spots, don’t make the team. It would be a difficult squeeze with just $955K in cap space remaining and new deals needed for depth RFA forwards Connor Dewar and Nicholas Robertson, although the latter has reportedly requested a trade.

Both would be decent playoff contenders for van Riemsdyk to join as he chases a Stanley Cup. Without a ring to his name, it’s likely he’ll be willing to sacrifice some cash on his next deal rather than take an above-market-value paycheck to offer veteran leadership to a rebuilder.

Projected Contract

As mentioned earlier, JVR’s deal will likely come across the finish line with a $775K cap hit since he’s now eligible for a 35+ contract. But there is a good amount of uncertainty about how much his performance bonuses could total. After last year’s solid showing, he’s likely in line for an overall pay bump over his previous $1MM salary, even if only a portion is guaranteed. Evolving Hockey pegged JVR to land a one-year, $1.5MM deal as a UFA this summer, a figure that still makes sense when including potential performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Profile: Daniel Sprong

July 10, 2024 at 11:14 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 6 Comments

How some NHL players are deployed is a topic of much debate and, sometimes, confusion. Coaches will often ice certain veterans for more minutes than they’re suited for at that stage in their career, while others will keep flawed but skilled players buried in the lineup despite producing numbers that can’t be ignored. Daniel Sprong fits squarely in the latter category.

Sprong has been a strong volume scorer dating back to his junior days, but NHL coaches have kept him buried in their lineups, routinely averaging fourth-line minutes and occasional second power-play duties. A second-round pick of the Penguins in 2015, Sprong unexpectedly found his way into NHL action at age 18 the following season, scoring twice in an 18-game stint. He returned to junior hockey the following season, and despite recording a point per game in his first full professional season with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in 2017-18, he didn’t have much of a future in the Pens organization. He made Pittsburgh out of camp in 2018-19 but averaged a measly 8:34 per game through 16 contests, producing four assists, before he was traded to the Ducks in exchange for developing defenseman Marcus Pettersson.

In Anaheim, Sprong showed flashes, recording 14 goals and 19 points in 47 games after the swap. But he played only eight games the following year, spending most of it in the AHL, before being traded again to the Capitals. And after another unstable year and a half in D.C., it took yet another trade to the Kraken for the Dutchman to truly find his stride.

Sprong was one of many breakout forwards on Seattle in their 2022-23 campaign, managing to score 21 goals and 46 points with a +13 rating in only 66 appearances. That was good enough for a 26-goal, 57-point pace had he played in all 82 games – ridiculous numbers considering he’d again averaged just 11:25 per game. It yielded some pretty incredible numbers. At even strength, his 3.09 points per 60 minutes were third in the league, only behind Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon and then-Sabre Jeff Skinner.

But that was in a contract year, and he could have landed a semi-rich short-term deal had he taken Seattle to salary arbitration that summer as he was eligible to do. With money needed elsewhere in the lineup, the Kraken opted to walk away, relinquishing his signing rights by not issuing him a qualifying offer. He landed on the open market, signing a one-year, $2MM pact with the Red Wings.

Sprong was still effective as a depth scorer in Hockeytown, but his production took a small step back to 18 goals and 43 points in 76 games. Part of that was due to some puzzling deployment from head coach Derek Lalonde, who deployed him in far more defensive situations at even strength than he’d dealt with in Seattle. That caused his possession numbers to tank, too, seeing his even-strength shot attempt share dive by nearly nine percent from the year before and his expected goals share dive to a career-worst 45%, per Hockey Reference.

Now, aside from the de facto retired Joe Pavelski, Sprong remains the top offensive talent remaining in the second week of free agency. In fact, he and Pavelski are the only two names left unsigned from our Top 50 UFAs list released less than two weeks ago.

Stats

2023-24: 76 GP, 18 G, 25 A, 43 P, -5, 22 PIMs, 12:00 ATOI, 46.4 CF%
Career: 344 GP, 85 G, 74 A, 159 P, -2, 66 PIMs, 11:57 ATOI, 50.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

The Sharks have been active in adding veteran talent this summer to support a forward core led by rookies Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith beginning next season. Most of it has come via bottom-six checking depth, though, with Ty Dellandrea and Barclay Goodrow the notable additions there. Tyler Toffoli was also picked up for some more serious scoring reinforcements, but there is still likely a vacancy for a top-nine forward – especially if captain Logan Couture isn’t healthy to start the season.

Still in California, the Kings could also use a depth winger to replace Arthur Kaliyev, who remains under team control after being qualified last month but isn’t likely to sign a new deal in LA. Sprong has plenty more experience and consistency on his résumé in the bottom-six role that Kaliyev’s filled and carries more upside for a marginal increase in cash.

The Bruins still have some cap space to burn as well and need a more offensively-inclined name to take responsibility away from checking wingers like Justin Brazeau, Trent Frederic and new addition Max Jones. He’d have a decent shot at playing top-nine minutes in Boston at even strength, too, giving him an attractive destination to land more minutes and increase his market value.

Projected Contract

Most players who make it past the initial wave of UFA craziness usually have to settle for one-year deals. Evolving Hockey had predicted a three-year deal in the $3.3MM AAV range to begin with, but it’s unlikely he’ll receive that kind of term with the dust settled on pretty much everyone’s long-term planning. He could still very well land something around that cap hit, but likely on a one-year deal as he had in Detroit last year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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