Originally published June 27.
The past two weeks have already seen the offseason enter a period of high activity. But unlike last year, many big-ticket names remain available with just four days left to go until July 1. There’s only been a handful of last-minute re-signings, and while there’s sure to be more before the market opens, most of the top names look to be available.
With multiple first-line forwards and top-pair defenders available, this year’s class is one of the strongest in recent memory. That makes this one of the most fun Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents lists we at PHR have put together in our nine years of this exercise. As a reminder, our rankings and predictions are voted on by the entirety of our writing team based on a combination of talent perception and expected demand.
All predictions are independent and have no bearing on each other, while each player is presumed to be signing a one-way contract. Due to this year’s compact offseason schedule, voting was done before the buyout window opened and the June 30 qualifying offer deadline.
1. Jake Guentzel / Vancouver Canucks / 7 years, $9.15MM AAV
Josh Erickson: He split number-one votes with Reinhart and even Stamkos among each of our writers, but he wins the spot on our list thanks to everyone having him in their top two. Other than the aging Stamkos, he’s the only player hitting the market who’s been a top-line force practically since making his NHL debut, consistently solidifying himself as one of the best complementary wingers in the league. His routine point-per-game performances have continued into his late 20s as the top wingman for Sidney Crosby and, for a small stretch this season, Sebastian Aho in Carolina. He may not earn as much dough as Reinhart this summer, as he’s not coming off a 57-goal regular season, but a fourth point-per-game campaign and a strong stretch of post-deadline play away from Crosby still positions himself to earn a rich long-term deal.
Signed with Tampa Bay, seven years, $63MM ($9MM AAV)
2. Sam Reinhart / Florida Panthers / 8 years, $9.25MM AAV
Brian La Rose: Reinhart saw his production drop in his second season with Florida in 2022-23, so the Panthers didn’t know what to expect as he went into his walk year. He wound up rebounding in then some, exploding for a career-best 57 goals and 94 points while also finishing fourth in Selke Trophy voting. Now established as a true top-line threat, the 28-year-old is well-positioned for a long-term, big-money contract and should be one of the highest-paid players in this year’s market.
Re-signed in Florida, eight years, $69MM ($8.625MM AAV)
3. Steven Stamkos / Tampa Bay Lightning / 3 years, $6.75MM AAV
Gabriel Foley: Stamkos will be the headliner of this year’s free agency solely because it could mark an end to his legendary 16-year career with the Lightning. Stamkos has done everything and then some since being drafted first overall in 2008, recording 50 and 60-goal seasons, rivaling and breaking 100 points, captaining multiple Stanley Cup wins, and ultimately totaling 555 goals, 1,137 points, and 1,082 games with the club – the franchise record for all three stats. There will be talks of Hall of Fame, jersey retirement, and maybe even a statue whenever Stamkos chooses to retire – but now doesn’t seem to be the right time. Instead, the legendary forward will look to build off a fantastic 40 goals and 81 points this season. Whether or not his encore will come with the Lightning will be the premier question of the summer.
Signed with Nashville, four years, $32MM ($8MM AAV)
4. Brandon Montour / Utah Hockey Club / 6 years, $7.15MM AAV
Josh: After a tough go of things with the Sabres a few years back, Montour has re-established himself as a top-pairing threat with the Panthers. A second-round pick of the Ducks back in 2014, he’s one year removed from a 16-goal, 73-point campaign that spurred Norris nomination consideration and a strong showing in the Panthers’ first trip to the Stanley Cup Final in nearly 20 years. He’s helped them back to the championship series this season, but a shoulder injury that cost him the first weeks of the campaign plus decreased offensive output (0.50 points per game, down from 0.91), means he’s not in line for an exorbitantly high price tag. He still checks in as the highest-ranked defenseman on our list, and after averaging over 23 minutes per game in back-to-back years, we project him as the highest-paid, too.
Signed with Seattle, seven years, $50MM ($7.14MM AAV)
5. Matt Duchene / Dallas Stars / 3 years, $5MM AAV
Gabriel: The Stars’ offense had a special way of elevating its stars this season, leading six different players to 60 or more points, including Duchene. That makes his 25-goal, 40-assist performance a bit hard to discern, though there’s no denying how encouraging it is to see the 33-year-old continuing to score at a high level. He’s now recorded 207 points across his last 229 games, stretching back to the 2021-22 season – making him one of the summer’s most valuable free agents, even despite being one of the oldest. Duchene seems destined to return to the invaluable second-line role he filled this summer, though the quick emergence of prospects Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque could quickly crowd Dallas’ lineup.
Re-signed in Dallas, one year, $3MM
6. Jonathan Marchessault / Vegas Golden Knights / 3 years, $6MM AAV
Josh: Marchessault remains one of the most puzzling expansion draft decisions from the process that led to the Golden Knights’ inaugural roster, as he was left exposed by the Panthers after a breakout 30-goal campaign. The diminutive late bloomer has since established himself as arguably the most important player in Vegas franchise history, averaging north of 0.80 points per game across seven years in Nevada and taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy during their first Stanley Cup win in 2023. It’ll be difficult to find the cap space to retain him after a career-best 42 goals this season, but some cap-clearing trades in order to retain him are expected. If they can’t make a deal work, though, he’ll be a strong secondary option for teams who miss out on the top few wingers available.
Signed with Nashville, five years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)
7. Elias Lindholm / Boston Bruins / 6 years, $7MM AAV
Brennan McClain: It was a tale of three seasons for Lindholm after a trade before the All-Star Break landed him with the third team of his career. After being acquired by the Vancouver Canucks, Lindholm recorded just six goals and 12 points in 26 games and saw his name pop up in trade rumors once again toward the trade deadline. Lindholm’s stock rose dramatically in the playoffs as the centerman led a second-line unit of Dakota Joshua and Conor Garland, which quickly became the most dominant line on the team. With the Canucks only owning around $16MM in cap space to retain nine players, Lindholm’s expected salary will have him looking for greener pastures once free agency opens up.
Signed with Boston, seven years, $54.25MM ($7.75MM AAV)
8. Brady Skjei / Carolina Hurricanes / 6 years, $7MM AAV
Brian: Skjei is the best left-shot defender in this year’s free-agent class. Over the last three seasons, he has established himself as a quality offensive weapon and a strong possession player, making him a true all-situations blueliner. The 30-year-old isn’t a true number-one defender, but there will undoubtedly be teams viewing him as a solid second option, giving him a shot at a max-term agreement and a sizable raise from the $5.25MM he made for the past six years.
Signed with Nashville, seven years, $49MM ($7MM AAV)
9. Teuvo Teräväinen / New York Islanders / 5 years, $5.25MM AAV
Brennan: Overshadowed by many of his peers in a strong Hurricanes organization, Teräväinen represents one of the craftier forward options on the free agent market this summer. He has long been known as a pass-first option on the wing but can be expected to score around the 20-goal mark each season. Outside of the topical categories, Teräväinen is a dream player for any team’s analytical department, consistently controlling possession quality at even strength over his 11-year career. The veteran forward can help nearly any organization in the possession game and should have a wide range of suitors this summer.
Signed with Chicago, three years, $16.2MM ($5.4MM AAV)
10. Brett Pesce / Toronto Maple Leafs / 6 years, $5.75MM AAV
Brennan: Pesce will see his earning power drop somewhat after a difficult 2023-24 season. The veteran defenseman scored three goals and 13 points in 70 games for the Hurricanes in a year that saw his typical production on the score sheet cut in half. Still, Pesce holds value as a right-handed defenseman who carries strong numbers in his possession and defensive metrics. It would be unlikely to see Pesce command longer than a four-year contract this summer, but they should have several suitors that need a stronger defensive presence in their top-four defensive pairings.
Signed with New Jersey, six years, $33MM ($5.5MM AAV)
11. Patrick Kane / Detroit Red Wings / 2 years, $5MM AAV
Gabriel: Kane made an unexpectedly triumphant return from hip resurfacing surgery this season, joining the Red Wings in November and settling into a fine role on the team’s second line. Kane looked like his usual self despite the injury, scoring 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games but remaining a liability off of the puck. Despite near point-per-game scoring, it seems Kane is once again set for free agency just six months after his last contract. His last negotiations were drawn out and only resulted in a one-year deal. Kane showed he can still play after an intensive surgery – though his continued lapses defensively and eligibility for a 35+ contract will likely keep him committed to something short-term.
Re-signed in Detroit, one year, $4MM cap hit ($6.5MM AAV including performance bonuses)
12. Tyler Toffoli / Los Angeles Kings / 4 years, $5.75MM AAV
Gabriel: Through criticism and inconsistency, Toffoli has found a way to cement himself as a strong middle-six scorer over the last two seasons, posting 34 and 33 goals, respectively. Those tallies have come despite playing for three different teams over the stretch, including most recently with the Jets, where Toffoli posted seven goals and 11 points in 18 games. He may not be among the NHL’s flashiest, but he’s proven recently consistent, offering goal-scoring from the third line that’s hard to find. At 32, Toffoli’s next deal will likely take him through the majority of his remaining career unless he opts to continue his short-term moves after playing for four different clubs over the last three seasons.
Signed with San Jose, four years, $24MM ($6MM AAV)
13. Chandler Stephenson / Seattle Kraken / 5 years, $5.6MM AAV
Josh: Stephenson is one of many over the past seven years who’s found his game after being acquired by the Golden Knights. Now a bona fide top-six forward with a career 52.6% faceoff win percentage and a history of good possession numbers, he’ll have more than a few suitors if he remains unsigned come July 1. He was shifted to the wing at times this season amid a bit of a down year but still managed 16 goals and 51 points in 75 games after putting up back-to-back 60-point campaigns. In a relatively weak UFA center market, expect him to return to the middle next season for a team looking for top-six help.
Signed with Seattle, seven years, $43.75MM ($6.25MM AAV)
14. Sean Monahan / Winnipeg Jets / 4 years, $4.75MM AAV
Brian: Monahan is one of the more intriguing middlemen this time out. Last year, he was coming off another injury-riddled campaign, leading to a low-cost one-year agreement to show he can stay healthy. Mission accomplished on that front as he led the league with 83 games played this season, having played in every available contest with Montreal and Winnipeg. He did well on the second line with both franchises and played well enough to get a significant raise with term, but his long injury history makes him a potential wild card on the open market.
Signed with Columbus, five years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)
15. Vladimir Tarasenko / Seattle Kraken / 3 years, $5MM AAV
Gabriel: Tarasenko has gone on a tour around the NHL over the last two seasons, ending an 11-year career with the Blues with a 2023 trade to the New York Rangers, followed by a summer signing with the Senators, and then another trade to the Panthers at this year’s trade deadline. He’s maintained his reliable scoring through the moves, totaling 31 goals and 76 points across a combined 107 games with the trio of teams. He’s also tallied five goals and nine points in 21 games this postseason, chasing the second Stanley Cup of his career with Florida. Tarasenko is one of the market’s older names at 32, but his production has shown no signs of aging. He’ll offer strong middle-six value on the open market, with the added perk of being one of the market’s few Stanley Cup winners.
Signed with Detroit, two years, $9.5MM ($4.75MM AAV)
16. Jake DeBrusk / Montreal Canadiens / 5 years, $5.5MM AAV
Josh: DeBrusk has been both satisfyingly clutch and frustratingly inconsistent during his time in Boston, which began when the Bruins selected him 14th overall in the 2015 draft. He’s been one of the team’s best playoff performers over the past two seasons, racking up nine goals and 17 points in 20 games. However, his point production has varied wildly from season to season, topping out with a 27-goal, 50-point showing during Boston’s record-breaking 2022-23 season. That was in just 64 games, though, and he didn’t sniff those totals this year despite playing in 80 contests. He does have good size at 6’0″ and nearly 200 lbs, though, and has never had a negative expected rating in his career.
Signed with Vancouver, seven years, $38.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)
17. Joe Pavelski / Retirement
Josh: What a career it likely was for Pavelski, who told reporters early this month that he expects to retire. If he does have one more NHL season left in him, it’s hard to imagine the 39-year-old returning to the Stars for one last ride on a team brimming with championship potential after back-to-back Western Conference Final appearances. 40 in July, he still managed 27 goals and 67 points while playing in all 82 games this year, his fourth straight season without missing any action.
Retired
18. Shayne Gostisbehere / Chicago Blackhawks / 3 years, $4.95MM AAV
Josh: Gostisbehere’s defensive shortcomings have always limited his market value. Last summer was no different, settling for a decently rich but brief one-year, $4.125MM deal with the Red Wings. It turned out to be a great decision for the 10-year veteran, who superseded Moritz Seider as Detroit’s top power play option and had 56 points in 81 games, the second-most of his career. He didn’t log top-four minutes at even strength, though, and it’ll likely keep him from earning the $5MM-plus annually that his point totals from the backend would normally garner. However, he should still earn a multi-year commitment with a modest raise from last season’s cap hit from a team looking to add an impactful offensive talent on its blue line.
Signed with Carolina, three years, $9.6MM ($3.2MM AAV)
19. Tyler Bertuzzi / Toronto Maple Leafs / 4 years, $5MM AAV
Brennan: Nearly a sunk cost after the Maple Leafs inked Bertuzzi to a one-year, $5.5MM contract last summer, Bertuzzi rebounded nicely in the back half of the year. The gritty forward scored 10 goals and 25 points over the team’s last 40 games of the regular season in a year that saw Bertuzzi eclipse 70 games played for the first time since 2019-20. Bertuzzi also saw his physicality pick up this year, throwing 98 hits on the season which marks a career high. If Bertuzzi can keep healthy, he will be a good bet to land a multi-year contract near or above his most recent AAV in Toronto.
Signed with Chicago, four years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)
20. Matt Roy / Toronto Maple Leafs / 5 years, $5.25MM AAV
Gabriel: Roy may have a bid in the race for the ‘most underrated’ superlative, with many forgetting how his performances helped revitalize Drew Doughty in 2022. Roy has emerged as a fantastically stout defender for Los Angeles, filling upwards of 25 minutes a night with strong two-way play and physicality, though he’s only managed a career-high of 26 points. Still, he’s massively outperformed his seventh-round selection in 2015 and will enter the open market as a defender with top-pairing upside. That will garner plenty of interest, though Roy could still lean for a reunion, having so far spent the entirety of his six-year career with the Kings.
Signed with Washington, six years, $34.5MM ($5.75MM AAV)
21. Viktor Arvidsson / Calgary Flames / 3 years, $4.4MM AAV
Josh: It was a difficult season for Arvidsson, who missed the first 52 games of the season after undergoing back surgery and endured another lengthy absence due to a lower-body injury closer to the trade deadline. All in all, the Swedish sniper played in only 18 games in the regular season. He was great when healthy, though, and his 15 points in 18 games tied his highest single-season points per game mark (0.83). He hasn’t managed to reach 30 goals in a Kings jersey after hitting the mark twice in Nashville, though, and all indications point to him landing elsewhere next month. The top-six fixture for most of the last decade should be a good value pickup for somebody if he can avoid the injury bug moving forward.
Signed with Edmonton, two years, $8MM ($4MM AAV)
22. Nikita Zadorov / Vancouver Canucks / 6 years, $4.85MM AAV
Gabriel: Zadorov was traded to the Canucks in November, ending a tenure with the Flames that quickly turned tumultuous. But he rediscovered his high-event style in Vancouver, posting five goals, 14 points, and 102 penalty minutes in 54 games with the club. Most importantly, he showed up when the team needed it, recording eight points and 26 penalty minutes in 13 postseason games. Zadorov has expressed interest in returning to Vancouver, saying he expects a much better stat line once he becomes more comfortable with the team’s systems. But Vancouver might be running a bit short on funds after handing out a hefty extension to Filip Hronek. Zadorov’s vocal press conferences and high PIMs may make him a bit less popular than his peers on the open market, but there’d still be no shortage of interest in his stout second-pairing upside.
Signed with Boston, six years, $30MM ($5MM AAV)
23. Sean Walker / San Jose Sharks / 4 years, $4.65MM AAV
Josh: Walker is coming off a breakout season that saw him hit double-digit goals from the blue line. He also was a big part of the Flyers’ unexpected early-season success, controlling play exceptionally well on a depth pairing with Nick Seeler. His strong first half landed Philly a first-round pick for him at the trade deadline, while Walker headed off to a secure playoff team in Colorado. Things went well for Walker in the regular season, contributing four goals and seven points in 18 games in an Avs jersey, but he struggled to carve out minutes behind Samuel Girard, Cale Makar and Devon Toews. A pointless run in 11 postseason games ended his season on a low note, but there will be multiple suitors this summer betting on him as a mobile, adept two-way presence for their second pairing.
Signed with Carolina, five years, $18MM ($3.6MM AAV)
24. Adam Henrique / Buffalo Sabres / 3 years, $4.25MM AAV
Josh: Henrique is now firmly in ’Old Guy Without A Cup’ territory after falling tantalizingly short of a title with the Oilers this year. The 34-year-old totaled 24 goals and 51 points in 82 games split between Edmonton and Anaheim and is still a high-end complementary middle-six piece who can comfortably log 15 minutes per game. The threat of sudden decline, given his age, is a real risk, though.
Signed with Edmonton, two years, $6MM ($3MM AAV)
25. Chris Tanev / Dallas Stars / 3 years, $4.75MM AAV
Brian: Tanev is never going to be mistaken for an offensive defenseman. Instead, he’s as throwback of a shutdown defender as there is in the NHL today. He’s strong at limiting scoring chances, kills penalties, and throws himself in front of as many pucks as he can. Notably, after some injury-riddled seasons in his late 20s, the 34-year-old has been much more durable in recent years. With a strong playoff performance and there being few players like him out there, his market will be quite strong even with the limited offensive output.
Signed with Toronto, six years, $27MM ($4.5MM AAV)
26. Max Domi / Toronto Maple Leafs / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV
Josh: A late-season injury to Mitch Marner meant more opportunity for Domi, who slotted in on the wing alongside Auston Matthews after playing most of 2023-24 as the Leafs’ third-line center. He continued a strong year in the playmaking department, finishing the campaign with 38 assists. But Domi managed only nine goals after recording 20 with the Blackhawks and Stars last season, limiting his ability to cash in on a long-term deal this summer. He also had the most undisciplined season of his career, taking away some of his offensive value with 118 PIMs.
Re-signed in Toronto, four years, $15MM ($3.75MM AAV)
27. Anthony Mantha / Nashville Predators / 3 years, $4.75MM AAV
Brennan: On the cusp of reaching unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career, Mantha again reached the 20-goal mark after several dismal years in Washington. Acquired by the Golden Knights at the trade deadline for a few draft selections, Mantha returned to mediocrity as Vegas made him a healthy scratch for much of their Round One series against the Dallas Stars. Given that the Golden Knights have little to no cap space to retain Mantha, he will be seeking his third team in two years as a potential secondary scoring threat.
Signed with Calgary, one year, $3.5MM
28. Jonathan Drouin / Colorado Avalanche / 4 years, $4.65MM AAV
Gabriel: Drouin found a home with the Avalanche, finally finding consistent offense after a difficult tenure with the Canadiens. He scored a career-high 56 points this season, including 19 goals, marking the first time since 2018-19 that he’s broken the 50-point mark. Drouin found a spark last season that’s worth chasing again, and he’s expressed strong interest in returning to Colorado as a result. Should he enter the open market, Drouin will likely be searching for a role that features him as prominently as his second-line role with the Avalanche.
Re-signed in Colorado, one year, $2.5MM
29. Anthony Duclair / Pittsburgh Penguins / 3 years, $3.75MM AAV
Josh: Duclair is finishing up a bargain three-year, $9MM deal that saw him hit the 20-goal and 30-goal marks once, although an injury-plagued 2022-23 season limited him to just two snipes in 20 games. He enters the open market on a high note after a deadline deal sent him to the Lightning, where he finished the campaign with eight goals and 15 points in 17 games. He’ll be 29 in August and should be a lock for at least 20 goals per season for the next few years if he stays healthy, making him an ideal second or third-line scoring winger.
Signed with NY Islanders, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)
30. Oliver Ekman-Larsson / Florida Panthers / 3 years, $4MM AAV
Gabriel: Ekman-Larsson found his way out of Vancouver via buyout, instead playing out a one-year deal with the Panthers that seemed to revitalize his career. The 14th-year defenseman posted 32 points and 76 penalty minutes in 80 games – certainly nothing staggering, but the most he’s scored since 2018-19 and a show of potential after two disappointing seasons with the Canucks. At 32, Ekman-Larsson isn’t in much of a position to demand a long-term contract – though he’ll represent a strong option for two-way depth for needy teams.
Signed with Toronto, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)
31. David Perron / Detroit Red Wings / 2 years, $2.95MM AAV
Gabriel: Perron has become easier to anticipate as his career has gone on. After flashes of high scoring and runs to the Stanley Cup earlier in his career, he’s settled into a consistent middle-of-the-lineup role – offering strong goal-scoring down the lineup but hardly inspiring much on defense. Unfortunately, at 36, Perron’s impact is beginning to slip. This season was the first time since 2016-17 that Perron didn’t score 50 points while playing in a full season. Still, he stood as the Red Wings’ seventh-highest scorer this season – and offers reasonable depth offense in limited minutes. The questions around him will focus much more on whether he feels this is the time to hang up the skates – after a career amassing 1,131 games and 768 points. He’ll offer modest offensive upside at a cheap price tag – and the perk of 104 career playoff games and one Stanley Cup – should he want to return.
Signed with Ottawa, two years, $8MM ($4MM AAV)
32. Cam Talbot / Tampa Bay Lightning / 1 year, $2MM (incl. performance bonuses)
Brian: Talbot’s market didn’t materialize as expected last summer, resulting in him taking a one-year, bonus-laden deal with the Kings. It worked out pretty well for both sides as he made 52 starts and put up his lowest GAA (2.50) since 2016-17, a pretty good return on what turned out to be a $2MM investment by Los Angeles. However, Talbot turns 37 in early July, which means he could be going year to year from here on out, and it’s unlikely there will be many teams looking at him as a true starter. But as a short-term backup with some potential to get creative with the structure of the deal, he should have some options in free agency.
Signed with Detroit, two years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)
33. Jack Roslovic / San Jose Sharks / 2 years, $3.25MM AAV
Josh: The 27-year-old could be on the move to his fourth team this summer after the Jets made him a first-round pick nine years ago. He was shipped to the Blue Jackets as part of 2021’s Pierre-Luc Dubois/Patrik Laine swap, and while he put up decent offensive numbers (146 points in 246 games), he was never fully trusted by various coaching staffs and had only six goals in 40 games this season before being dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline. There’s definitely some upside with Roslovic’s game – he had 22 goals two seasons ago – but at 33rd on our list, we’re venturing into squarely third-liner territory.
Signed with Carolina, one year, $2.8MM
34. Anthony Stolarz / Nashville Predators / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV
Josh: Stolarz has been one of the better limited-use backups in the league in recent years, boasting a .916 SV% and 23.7 goals saved above average in 82 appearances over the last four seasons. He was one of the best ’tenders in the league straight-up in 2023-24, logging a .925 SV% and 2.03 GAA. Sample size will be a concern for teams looking for needle-movers between the pipes on the open market, though. He’s never started more than 25 games or made more than 30 appearances in a single season in his seven-year NHL career.
Signed with Toronto, two years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)
35. Daniel Sprong / Columbus Blue Jackets / 3 years, $3.75MM AAV
Gabriel: After years on the grindstone, Sprong has finally broken through as an impactful producer down the lineup. He proved as much with the Kraken last season, posting 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games, and vindicated it with a 43-point year with the Red Wings this season. He’s by no means an upside swing, but Sprong’s recent show of consistency makes him an intriguing option on the open market.
Signed with Vancouver, one year, $975K
36. Jason Zucker / Nashville Predators / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV
Josh: Zucker’s stock has fallen since his days as a fringe first-liner with the Wild, averaging a career-low 13:49 per game across 69 appearances with the Coyotes and Predators this season. At 32, he’s unlikely for much of a resurgence, but he’s still a serviceable depth scoring option after recording 14 goals and 32 points in 69 games. He’s only one year removed from a 27-goal, 48-point campaign in Pittsburgh, too.
Signed with Buffalo, one year, $5MM
37. Tyler Myers / Vancouver Canucks / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV
Josh: The 34-year-old has faced his fair share of criticism since signing a five-year, $30MM deal in free agency with the Canucks in 2019 that he largely failed to live up to. He’s coming off quite a solid campaign in a reduced role, though. The 2008 first-round pick managed five goals and 29 points in 77 games – his most offensive contributions since 2018-19 – and came close to breaking even in controlling the majority of expected goals when on the ice at even strength. The days of being a top-four lock are behind him, but he has plenty of minute-munching experience that makes him an attractive option as a veteran bottom-pairing presence.
Re-signed in Vancouver, three years, $9MM ($3MM AAV)
38. Laurent Brossoit / Toronto Maple Leafs / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV
Josh: Much like Stolarz, Brossoit is looking for a bigger role this summer after posting solid numbers in backup action the past few years. The 31-year-old is coming off a great year behind Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg that saw him post a .927 SV%, mimicking his performance in third-string duties for the Golden Knights the year prior. He’s been prone to some wild year-to-year swings in the past that may raise some concerns about increasing his workload, though.
Signed with Chicago, two years, $6.6MM ($3.3MM AAV)
39. Ilya Samsonov / Detroit Red Wings / 1 year, $3MM AAV
Josh: Samsonov was riding a high after 2022-23, outperforming compatriot Andrei Vasilevskiy in the postseason en route to Toronto’s first series win in nearly a decade. But he couldn’t carry that forward momentum into this season, watching his numbers nosedive to a .890 SV% and 3.13 GAA in 40 appearances. He did display the ability to be a high-ceiling tandem option with a .919 SV% and 2.33 GAA in 42 games for the Leafs the year prior, though, and the 27-year-old is the youngest option available on the market who has experience shouldering a significant workload.
Signed with Vegas, one year, $1.8MM
40. Erik Gustafsson / New York Islanders / 1 year, $1.5MM AAV
Josh: Gustafsson continues to be a capable puck-moving option lower down on teams’ depth charts. The left-shot Swede has surpassed the 30-point mark three times in his career, including his performances with the Capitals, Maple Leafs and Rangers the past two seasons. He’s never commanded much on the open market, though, thanks to his lack of consistent top-four usage, though, making him a routinely high-value depth pickup. After racking up 25 assists and 31 points in 76 games with the Rags this year with good possession metrics, expect a raise on the one-year, $825K deal he signed with them last summer.
Signed with Detroit, two years, $4MM ($2MM AAV)
41. Alexander Wennberg / Ottawa Senators / 3 years, $3.5MM AAV
Gabriel: Wennberg had a quiet season on the stat sheet, with 30 points in 79 games marking his lowest scoring in a full season since he totaled 25 points in 2018-19. That’s certainly the wrong direction to be moving at the age of 29, though he’s found ways to hedge the decrease by becoming stronger defensively and even taking on modest special teams roles. That’s kept him in the lineup routinely, even through 16 postseason games where Wennberg scored just two points. Wennberg’s role is far from pronounced – likely limiting him to a depth contract this summer.
Signed with San Jose, two years, $10MM ($5MM AAV)
42. T.J. Brodie / San Jose Sharks / 2 years, $3.5MM AAV
Josh: Brodie’s stock has fallen significantly after serving as one of the better shutdown defensemen in the league for the Maple Leafs since signing a four-year, $20MM deal as a free agent in 2020. At first glance, things went okay for the 34-year-old this season, as he again averaged north of 21 minutes per game and had 26 points in 78 games with a +17 rating. But his normally high-end possession metrics took a sizeable step back, and he fell out of favor with former head coach Sheldon Keefe down the stretch and was routinely scratched in the playoffs in favor of Toronto’s trade-deadline pickups on the back end.
Signed with Chicago, two years, $7.5MM ($3.75MM AAV)
43. Alexandre Carrier / Calgary Flames / 3 years, $3.875MM AAV
Josh: Carrier hits the UFA market for the first time as one of the younger options available, with top-four upside still in the question. At 27, he’s had an up-and-down past few years, but he’s coming off a decent 20 points (four goals, 16 assists) in 73 games while logging nearly 19 minutes per game on the Nashville blue line. He was used heavily on the penalty kill this season when in the lineup, and while it’s not his forte, he’s a rather low-risk option who moves well and plays a solid all-around game.
Re-signed with Nashville, three years, $11.25MM ($3.75MM AAV)
44. Brenden Dillon / Boston Bruins / 2 years, $3.6MM AAV
Josh: Let’s call him Chris Tanev-lite. Now 33, Dillon has been a steady second-pairing shutdown force since entering the league with the Stars over a decade ago. He puts up around 20 points nearly every year and is one of the most frequent hitters in the league, usually supporting those results with strong possession numbers. He saw a considerable dip at 5-on-5 this year, though, and posted the worst shot-attempt share (47.8%) of his 13-year career. That’s something to look out for if a team is considering him on a multi-year deal.
Signed in New Jersey, three years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)
45. Warren Foegele / Minnesota Wild / 3 years, $3.55MM AAV
Gabriel: Foegele has always filled a gritty and reliable role in his team’s middle-six, though he seemed to find the best version of his style this year, posting a career-high 20 goals and 41 points in his third season with the Oilers. That scoring has decreased a bit in the postseason – with Foegele boasting just six points through his first 20 games – but his value as an effective third-line winger with special teams upside is very readily apparent. His emergence with this year’s Oilers suggests the best path forward would be to re-sign, though his spikey two-way game will be highly valued on the open market should he make it there.
Signed in Los Angeles, three years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)
46. Matt Dumba / Ottawa Senators / 2 years, $3.25MM AAV
Josh: Dumba still carries a fair amount of value stemming from his days as a 40-to-50-point force on the Wild blue line, and there’s still a chance he can rediscover that game if he finds some stability. But the past few seasons haven’t been kind to him. Teams caught onto his decline last summer after his deal in Minnesota expired, and he had to settle for a one-year deal with the Coyotes later in the offseason. He was then arguably the worst NHL regular on the Arizona blue line, limited to 10 points and a -13 rating in 58 games with some of the worst possession numbers on the club. A deadline deal to the Lightning didn’t do anything to repair his value either, logging only two assists through 18 games. His history of averaging more than 20 minutes per game should earn him some suitors, though.
Signed in Dallas, two years, $7.5MM ($3.75MM AAV)
47. Stefan Noesen / Washington Capitals / 3 years, $3.2MM AAV
Josh: Noesen is one of the biggest question marks in this UFA class. Once a minor-league mainstay, the now-31-year-old has been an invaluable secondary scorer for Carolina in a fourth-line role the past few years. Coming off years with 36 and 37 points while staying healthy, can he keep that type of production going if given more substantial minutes? He’s been a strong playoff performer, too, scoring four times in each of the Hurricanes’ postseason appearances the last two years.
Signed in New Jersey, three years, $8.25MM ($2.75MM AAV)
48. Danton Heinen / Boston Bruins / 2 years, $2.25MM AAV
Josh: Heinen put himself back on the map in his second stint with Boston this season, giving them a strong secondary scoring option after waiting to sign until late October and spending weeks on a tryout. The 28-year-old had 36 points and fell one short of his career-high in goals with 17, often getting looks in the Bruins’ top six. He can play both PP and PK, too, just likely not as a first-unit option.
Signed in Vancouver, two years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)
49. Yakov Trenin / Chicago Blackhawks / 3 years, $2.33MM AAV
Josh: Trenin’s as throwback of a checking forward as they come. After spending nearly a decade in the Predators organization, he was dealt to the Avalanche at this year’s trade deadline, where he had two goals and an assist in 16 games down the stretch while averaging 12:44 per game. The 6’2″, 201-lb Russian can play all three forward positions, although he struggles in the faceoff dot (43.0 career FOW%). He’s had double-digit goals and 150-plus hits for three years in a row, though, and has good defensive impacts for his relatively difficult usage as well.
Signed in Minnesota, four years, $14MM ($3.5MM AAV)
50. Matt Grzelcyk / Seattle Kraken / 3 years, $3.2MM AAV
Josh: A longtime partner to Bruins star Charlie McAvoy, Grzelcyk wraps up a four-year, $14.75MM deal with his value at its lowest in a while. He struggled with injuries this year, was limited to 63 games, and was challenged heavily for top-four usage by rookie Mason Lohrei. When healthy, though, he’s a relatively consistent lock for around 20 points and eats up 17 to 19 minutes per game. Aside from this season, possession play has been a historic strength of his, although he’s certainly benefitted from a good chunk of playing time spent alongside McAvoy.
Signed in Pittsburgh, one year, $2.75MM
Featured collage courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Unclemike1526
I sincerely hope neither of those options end up with the Blackhawks. That would be a step backwards. A lame Defenseman and a Forward who can never win a faceoff are the very LAST things the Hawks need. I’d rather they just said thanks, But no thanks. Jeez. Id Davidson does either of those things he should be fired. That’s not what he’s promised for a team with 35 million to spend.
Non-tendered
So neither the Devils nor the Rangers sign a Top 50 free agent?
jminn
Neither do the Ducks who have nearly the most room under the cap. I think only Utah has more cap space than Anaheim. GMPV said he’s looking to add a RW and RD so maybe try the list again?
DevilShark
I’d like NJD to pick up Dillon and avoid Pesce and Skjei…
yeasties
At the top, they say “All predictions are independent and have no bearing on each other”. I think it’s the same methodology that Dierkes uses on the MLB side. They are explicitly not trying to make sure every team is getting represented
FeeltheThunder
Steven Stamkos will more than likely stay in TBL & the contract suggested here is of plausible value.
Cam Talbot as a backup to Andrei Vasilevskiy wouldn’t be a bad idea as Talbot not playing a full schedule could be beneficial to his performance in the long run plus it gives TBL a proven & experienced backup net minder which is something that could add some wins for TBL.
Unclemike1526
I think he’ll get more.
FeeltheThunder
If Stamkos stays in Tampa, he would accept somewhere between $6 to $7 million. If he goes anywhere else he would want his full market value which is around $8 to $9 million on the open market. But money isn’t the entire driving force with Stamkos by any means as he’s laid that out already.
Gbear
Marchessault should be getting more than 6M a season. And why would you saddle the Preds with Mantha?!!!!
Have to think Stolarz will want more playing than he’d get backing up Saros. Unless, of course……
And do the Leafs have that much cap room to sign all those players?
Unclemike1526
It could be worse at least he gave you players. They gave the Hawks Gostis-No- Be Here and a Throwback F. What does that even mean? Is he a Cro Magnon? Does he eat with his fingers? Do his knuckles scrape concrete? Questions abound. And his big claim to fame is he can’t win a FO. The real question is exactly WHO would want a guy like that in the first place?
Gbear
PHR did the Hawks dirty here, lol!
And if anyone gives Montour that deal suggested here, they’re insane in the membrane!
denny816
So the Rangers won’t sign anyone to play first lime RW? Kind of think the writers missed the boat on that one.
weatherwiz
I’m guessing you’re expecting Tampa, Toronto, and Florida to clear out salary to make some of these proposed contracts work…
ericl
Don’t see DeBruks going to Montreal. Calgary is a more likely destination. It was reported earlier that both sides had interest in a deal. That makes a lot sense. It is close to home for Jake. Also, not sure Pesce will end up in Toronto. I’ve heard from people in Carolina that he wants to play in the United States & not Canada. That would eliminate the Leafs. He’s likely to have interest from teams like the Devils & Predators. He’ll have options in the US
Jamesz 2
Lol, you clearly don’t know Ron Francis at all, no way would he sign Stephenson or Tarasenko.
aka.nda
This comment didn’t age well :/
billysbballz
Kane going to Rangers and lots of trades coming.
aka.nda
Well, I appreciate the write up. Thank you.
Dnyboy69
Great article, but I notice that out of the top 50 Free agents you didn’t have the New Jersey Devils signing a single player? Really, your assessment is that Tom Fitzgerald is going to sit by idly after last years debacle and let all those free agents sign elsewhere?? Curious why you think the Devils have $15.2 mil in cap space that they wouldn’t be involved in any of those signings??
Josh Erickson
To be fair to our Devils people in here, we did have them picking up Dakota Joshua before he came off the board yesterday. But yes, as a few in this comment section have correctly referenced what’s written in the introduction, our predictions are independent of each other and geared toward the player, not toward the team
CluHaywood
I’d like to see the Hawks grab Stephenson and possibly Arvidsson if his price is a bit lower. Coming off that injury is bad enough, but you will potentially have two players coming off brutal injuries expected to play with Bedard in Arvidsson and Hall. This all depends on the draft of course, but I kinda understand if they DONT spend on defense. They have several players that are fighting for the bottom pairing, some with pretty good potential. Getting another top 4 guy wouldn’t hurt tho, but they can’t Seabrook the contract.
Also, where is Vancouver getting all this cap space?
CluHaywood
Never-ending, i see that they already re-signed Meyers