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Would U.S. Ratings Be High For An All Canadian Team Final?

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With five out of six Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs, an interesting question was posed by Sportsnet’s Scott Moore: “Ask NBC how they would feel about an Edmonton-Montreal Stanley Cup final.”

This isn’t to besmirch the great Canadian cities of Edmonton or Montreal or their fans. Instead, it’s one of several articles focusing on how Canada is experiencing a rush of hockey pride with Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all representing the country that gave us all hockey. Sportsnet expects a boon in ratings as a result while announcing blog Awful Announcing looked at how Sportsnet took a bath on ratings last season when not one Canadian team was represented in the playoffs. Viewership fell nearly fifty percent during last year’s playoffs, and heads rolled as a result. Much of the article that contained Moore’s quotes were from the New York Times.

Now with five teams in the playoffs, what are the expectations? With huge markets Toronto and Montreal in as well as dynamic young stars like Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Johnny Gaudreau all playing for Canadian teams, it’s certainly a bright future for ratings in Canada. It’s a well earned reward for suffering through a Canadian-less playoff last season.

Jun 12, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; San Jose Sharks goalie <a rel=

More interesting though was the question posed about American ratings–should it be an all Canadian tilt: would Americans watch? After all, hockey isn’t exactly rivaling the NBA, NFL, or MLB in ratings or television contracts in the US. Last season’s San Jose-Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final doesn’t inspire hope, either. Anthony Crupi of AdAge mocked the numbers, writing that a paltry four million viewers tuned it, making it the third worst Final rating since 2006 when NBC grabbed the rights. Crupi continues:

By way of comparison, the blowout-happy National Basketball Association finals on ABC are averaging a whopping 18.1 million viewers, a 10.4 household rating and a 6.5 in the demo through the first five games.

Crupi adds that poor scheduling and other sports distractions didn’t help, but his writing highlights what Moore called a concern for NBC. Would Americans tune in if it was an all-Canadian matchup?

Honestly, it depends on the matchup. Edmonton-Toronto would pit McDavid against Matthews. That’s certainly star appeal–should the NHL market it correctly. And that’s what it boils down to-marketing. At this current juncture, the NHL has a handful of young, rising stars who could rival the old Wayne Gretzky–Mario Lemieux arguments that dominated hockey in the late 80’s and early 90’s. Further, regardless of a team’s location, it’s about who is on the roster that ultimately matters. Forbes’ Alisha Grauso pointed out that last year’s Final was exciting–it ultimately suffered from bad scheduling. Additinally, Grauso wrote that hockey fans don’t watch to see hated teams lose. In this case, it wouldn’t draw an extra few million fans because they despise Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. Grauso’s point is that things are as bad as they seem.

So would Americans watch an all Canadian Final? I believe they would. But again, it would be more about the league properly scheduling, and marketing its stars instead of praying a big market team makes it again. Of course, teams with rich histories will always draw well. But it boils down to giving the game a chance to shine on a national stage–something the NHL has struggled to do for a long time.

NHL Comparables For Top Draft Propects

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While free agency and trades tend to grab most of the offseason headlines, the annual entry draft is generally far more important to NHL teams. Controllable young talent is the life blood of any successful organization and the best way to secure that talent is through the draft. While this year’s draft crop perhaps lacks the “generational” type of player that we’ve seen in each of the two previous years (Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews), there is no shortage of young players who will be selected this June who will go on to have successful NHL careers.

A common approach when discussing 17 and 18-year-old draft prospects is to compare their potential upsides to those of present day or past NHL stars. Sidney Crosby was often compared to a young Wayne Gretzky, not solely due to possessing similar, elite offensive abilities, but also because he exuded the traits of a player that could be one of the game’s great ambassadors. McDavid, in turn was compared to a young Crosby for many of those same reasons.

In an interesting piece appearing on NHL.com, Mike Morreale takes a stab at comparing a handful of the top 2017 draft prospects to some of the day’s top NHL stars using analysis from NHL Central Scouting. Among them is potential #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick, who the scribe compares to Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, citing the former’s hockey sense and vision as the youngster’s best assets. Like the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Kopitar, Patrick has great size (6-foot-3, 198-pounds) and according to Central Scouting, his “playmaking ability with the size and reach is tremendous.”

If Patrick is not chosen first overall then that honor may well go to Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. Morreale cites Washington pivot Nicklas Backstrom as Hischier’s possible NHL comparable, identifying the latter’s hockey sense and skating ability as his top attributes. Central Scouting says “he plays a complete game but is very good offensively.”

Other prospects to make an appearance are Gabriel Vilardi and Owen Tippett, from Windsor and Mississauga of the OHL respectively, as well as USHL stars Casey Mittelstadt and Kevin Petruzzelli.

While it’s natural to project young players into some of the stars of today’s game, it’s important to note that these comparisons essentially represent the bast case scenarios for each of the prospect’s in their long term development. The words prospect and suspect are sometimes used interchangeably, reminding us that no matter how talented the prospect may be, any number of factors can prevent him from reaching his full potential. Every team hopes their top draft pick turns into a Crosby, Backstrom or Kopitar but the possibility remains that instead they end up with the next Patrik Stefan, Rostislav Klesla or Pavel Vorobiev. That same fate could befall any, or all of 2017’s top draft prospects.

Friedman’s Latest: Review Limit, Salary Cap, Concussion Protocol

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In his latest 30 Thoughts column, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet dishes on the latest information coming out of the recent General Manager meetings in Boca Raton. It’s always a great read from one of the most connected men in hockey.

  • While the GMs have decided not to change the offside rule, they are looking at instituting a time limit on reviews to prevent five-plus minute delays to the game. The MLB recently changed their rules around reviews, giving managers just :30 to call for a review and umpires have two minutes to make the final decision. Friedman suggests the NHL would look at something similar. One change that has been agreed upon is the referees will no longer discuss/ explain the call with both coaches after announcing the ruling. That should dramatically cut down on the time delays.
  • The salary cap is expected to increase by several million dollars, potentially as high as around $76MM. That would be a $3MM increase from this season. Of course, that would require the Players Association to use their cap escalator, which increases both the cap and their escrow payments. Friedman cites some anonymous sources as not being sure that the PA would do that, however they usually do approve it in the end. Whether or not the players choose to increase the cap will greatly affect the contracts thrown around in July. It’s also important to remember that last March the cap was expected to be $74MM, but only reached $73MM, so it’s not a sure-thing just yet.
  • There is some concern among play0ff-bound teams that concussion protocols will be abused in the post-season. After Mike Smith was removed from the third period of a game last month, he wondered what is stopping a fourth-liner from running a star goaltender to gain an advantage against a cold goaltender. Friedman doesn’t believe the NHL will make changes to the rule, as it would reflect negatively on them to “move backwards” on concussion awareness; however he does believe this will be something to watch for in the playoffs.
  • Some were surprised at the high price that Ottawa gave up to acquire Alex Burrows at the trade deadline, but Friedman sheds some light on why: there were eight or nine teams who made “legit offers” for Burrows. That’s a lot of interest for a player who was nearly bought out last summer, but also demonstrates the high cost of veterans at the deadline. Ottawa also stepped up to offer Burrows a two-year extension, which tipped the scales in their favor.
  • After his head coach ripped him apart in the media, Friedman believes the Hurricanes will look to move Eddie Lack this summer. Lack had a solid 0.917 SV% during his two seasons in Vancouver, but that number has fallen to 0.898 in Carolina. He has just 15 wins in 45 games as a member of the Hurricanes. Friedman says Lack, a happy-go-lucky person, was initially crushed by Bill Peters’ comments; he doesn’t believe the arrangement will last beyond this season.
  • Finally, after some unnecessary controversy about Islanders rookie Josh Ho-Sang wearing number 66 in honor of Mario Lemieux, Friedman commented that if Wayne Gretzky’s 99 wasn’t retired league-wide, players would “be spearing each other in competition for it.” Number 99 is the only number that’s off-limits on every team, so expect a few-year-long reprieve from rookies wearing their birth year as their number. After Jesse Puljujärvi chose number 98, we likely won’t see any rookies until the 2002-birth year hits the NHL in 2020.

Morning Notes: Thornton, Jokinen, Panarin

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When Joe Pavelski slid the puck past Nikolaj Ehlers and into the empty net at the end of the San Jose-Winnipeg game last night, it sealed more than just the win. Since it had been Joe Thornton who broke the play out of his end, he registered the secondary assist and the play would go into the history books. That play would be Thornton’s 1000th assist of his career, a feat only previously accomplished by twelve other men in the history of the NHL.

Thornton, now 37 years old, is in the midst of arguably the worst offensive season of his career with only five goals and 41 points through 65 games. The Sharks are in first place with a bullet in the Pacific Division though, and the pending free agent has still been a big part of it. If he wants to play another few years, teams will certainly take one of the greatest passers of all-time into the mix as Thornton hunts down the next name on the assist-list. Joe Sakic is next with 1016, while Wayne Gretzky is still the untouchable leader at 1963.

  • If you asked Florida Panthers fans about their greatest player, they might say Olli Jokinen who leads the franchise in goals and points. As reported this weekend, the Finnish forward has signed a one-day contract with the club to retire tonight as Panther. In 567 games, Jokinen scored 419 points and captained the team for several years.
  • In the latest piece from Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, Artemi Panarin apologizes for his comments back in 2012 on Russian TV. A clip from the show had surfaced around corners of the internet and featured Panarin using some racially charged comments. He and the team immediately responded to Hine’s story and apologized for any harm the comments may have made. The 25-year old winger has never been involved in anything like this during his short time in the NHL, and seems to genuinely regret having made the comment.

Sidney Crosby Records 1,000th Point

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In just 787 games, Sidney Crosby has recorded his 1,000th NHL point. On a beautiful setup of Chris Kunitz, the assist made Crosby the 12th fastest player to the mark and the third to hit it this season (Alex Ovechkin and Henrik Sedin). With it, the Penguins released an interactive booklet showing the journey to 1,000 for “Sid”, who is widely considered one of the greatest players of all-time.

The booklet included quotes from players and alumni around the league, including Wayne Gretzky, Evgeni Malkin and Jonathan Toews. Malkin’s is borderline adorable as he gives it to his long-time teammate:

Hey Sid, I want to say congrats on your 1,000 points. It is a huge number. We both know that 999 [of those] points is because of my help. I have enjoyed playing with you. Every game, every night is so fun. Everyone knows that you are the best player.

Crosby hit the mark in six fewer games than another Pittsburgh legend, Jaromir Jagr, who recently recorded the 1900th point of his career. While Crosby has quite a few seasons left before he catches that ageless wonder, he is pushing himself further up the career lists. He’s only the 86th player in league history to make it to 1,000 and may even jump into the top-75 before the end of the season. He’s still 723 points behind the Penguins’ franchise leader Mario Lemieux, though it’s not so far-fetched that he may push to pass him eventually. At just 29 years old, Crosby has many years of solid hockey left to play. With no evidence of slowing down—in fact, some may say he’s speeding up—he’d need 547 more games at his current pace to tie Lemieux. That’s just six and a half seasons.

More likely he’ll go down as the best player of the post-lockout generation, and that’s still a heck of an accomplishment. Congratulations Sid.

Mike Smith Not Likely To Be Traded

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Around the league, there are a handful of teams that could use some goaltending help as they try to get back to the playoffs. Philadelphia, Calgary, New York (Islanders) and perhaps even St. Louis could use a veteran netminder to help that last push. While 34-year old Mike Smith might be appealing to some of them, it doesn’t sound like he’s headed anywhere.

In her latest column, AZCentral’s Sarah McLellan talks to both Smith and Coyotes’ GM John Chayka about the possibility of the veteran goalie being dealt. After being named an all-star this year, Smith had doubts he even really deserved it. His team is losing, and most goaltenders will tell you the win-loss record is the most important thing to them.

Despite losing more games than not, Smith is having an excellent season. A .917 save percentage behind a very weak defense is Smith’s best number since 2011-12, and a mark most of the above teams can only dream of. His deal does include a no-trade clause though, and carries two more years at $5.67MM – a tough pill to swallow.

McLellan reports that the Coyotes haven’t approached Smith to waive his clause, and Chayka sure doesn’t sound like he wants to move the netminder.

We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded. At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.

That sounds about as definitive as possible, though obviously anything can happen in the next month. The Coyotes find themselves at the bottom of the standings once again as they continue to rebuild, and though Smith could likely fetch at least something in return the added veteran stability is worth something to their development. The fact that Louis Domingue hasn’t turned in the season the team had hoped after his solid stretch last year might also figure into that decision.

NHL Names Top 100 Players Of All Time

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Last night on the NBC Sports Network, the NHL released the top 100 players of all time and the debate, which has raged long before this was released, will continue on. Hosted by actor Jon Hamm, the ceremony honored players by decade, and categorized them by goalies, defensemen, and forwards.

The first thirty-three were released on New Years Day during the Centennial Classic in Toronto. The players named in the first thirty-three were active between 1917-1966. The rest, named last night, have played from 1967 to the present day.

There were a number of story lines:

  • Jonas Siegel of the Canadian Press wrote that Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Wayne Gretzky agree that Gordie Howe is the greatest hockey player of all time. Gretzky added that while Sidney Crosby is the greatest in the game today, Connor McDavid is making the case to “chase him” as the next in line.
  • Speaking of Crosby’s generation, the selection of the more recent players to the top 100 caused quite the debate around the hockey world. The arguments boil down into a couple ways: either include more current players by subtracting players from other decades or be more selective in the current generation. The six on the current list were Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin.
  • The Score’s Sean O’Leary thinks that Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, and Joe Thornton should have “cracked” the list. O’Leary believes that Malkin is a lock for the top 100, while Iginla, though never winning a Cup, was a dominant force in the league, scoring 617 goals in his long (and still active) career.
  • Curtis Pashelka also wonders why Joe Thornton isn’t included on the list. His stats alone seem to qualify him for the top 100, but the lack of a Stanley Cup makes Pashelka think that it kept Thornton out of the illustrious club.
  • Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski includes his list of snubs which name the aforementioned Iginla, Malkin, and Thornton. But Wyshysnki also lists Zdeno Chara, Ed Belfour, Dale Hawerchuk, and Pierre Pilote as players deserving of inclusion.

 

Allen’s Latest: All Star Game, Detroit’s Youth, Top 25 Of All Time

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USA Today’s Kevin Allen wonders if the NHL has found the right formula for the All-Star game. A struggle for many years to make a dent in ratings or generate interest, Allen writes that last year’s shift to a division specific, three-on-three battle was a shot in the arm for the sport and gave NBC its highest ratings for an All-Star game since they signed on with the NHL for coverage. Players also bought into the format, as evidenced by a quote from NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood recalled that one player said, “’I want to be out there. I’m so mad that I’m leaving this building and not playing to win this event.” Flood felt that was “cool” and it showed a turnaround in the perception of the All-Star Game.

More from Allen:

  • Though Detroit is having a rough season, the youth carrying the team has been a positive sign. Allen writes that the production from “kids” Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Jared Coreau has gone a long way in breathing some life into what’s been a stale season in Hockeytown. It also shows that Detroit has continued to draft talent that can produce at the NHL level. Though the playoffs could be missed, a silver lining is certainly the development and contribution from the younger players. Allen notes that while the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, it’s been the emergence of Mantha and Athanasiou that have given Detroit an uptick in scoring. More interesting, will be if the Red Wings continue to rely on their youth, with a roster and philosophy that always seem to favor veterans.
  • Allen also lists his top 25 of all time and his #1 and #2 are not shocking with Gordie Howe narrowly edging Wayne Gretzky. Bobby Orr, Mario Lemieux, and Maurice Richard round out Allen’s top five.

Auston Matthews Scores 20th Goal Of Rookie Season

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Since the 2005-06 season when the NHL brought itself into a new era, 33 players have scored 20 or more goals in their rookie year. Headlined by the unbelievable rookie campaigns of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin (the latter of which who scored more than 50, the first of seven such seasons) it’s a group of all-stars and perhaps even more than a handful of hall of fame players. It also includes Petr Prucha and Peter Mueller, showing that it’s not a guarantee for success though a pretty good indicator.

This year, the group will likely have a handful of entrants. With players like Patrik Laine in Winnipeg and Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary having great success, this may be the best rookie crop in years. But today it’s Toronto that took the rookie spotlight, with Mitch Marner, Connor Brown and Auston Matthews all scoring in the Centennial Classic. Matthews, who scored twice (including the overtime winner) has already punched his ticket as the 34th player to score 20 as a rookie in the salary cap era.

The rookie phenom now has 32 points in 36 games, and is on pace to score more goals that even Crosby did as a rookie. The league hasn’t seen a teenager score 40 goals in his rookie season since Eric Lindros did it in 1992-93, and there may be two (with Laine) that do it this year. That exclusive group includes just five players: Lindros, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Dale Hawerchuk and Sylvain Turgeon.

When you add Connor McDavid to the teenage mix (though no longer a rookie), it’s an unbelievable group that is doing unprecedented things in the NHL. With 14 goals in his last 17 games, Matthews is likely on an unsustainable pace, just as Laine was earlier in the year. But even if his production slows down, he’s already in the discussion as an elite center in the NHL and should be for a long time.

The Calder Trophy run should be a heck of a battle down the stretch, with no clear winner emerging so far. We’re excited to watch.

Snapshots: Pronger, Liljegren, Leafs Alumni

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The St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks will play in the Winter Classic this Monday, meaning the weekend is designed around events like the Alumni game. With so many greats (including Wayne Gretzky and Martin Brodeur) suiting up for the Blues, former captain Chris Pronger took over their Twitter page to answer some fan questions.

On best and worst players to play against:

Worst player to play against was always the short ones. Favorite was Keith Tkachuk – I always owned him.

Who had the hardest check in the league:

Pound-for-pound, Dallas Drake probably hit the hardest. Scott Stevens in open ice. Rob Blake with his butt checks.

There are a dozen other amusing answers, as Pronger signed off each tweet with #loveforluca, a campaign that will donate $200 for every goal the Blues score towards a 7-year old’s battle with leukemia. It also has a GoFundMe page that is looking to raise $100,000 for the child’s medical expenses.

  • According to Swedish newspaper Kvallsposten, Timothy Liljegren, the expected #2 overall pick in this summer’s draft, may soon be on the move to a new team. After missing time with an illness recently, the paper reports that he didn’t play at all yesterday against Karlskrona. The rumored landing spot is Timra, a team in the lower level Allsvenskan. Basically, this would be like a youngster on a bad NHL team going to the AHL to try and win a Calder Cup. Liljegren would get more icetime and responsibility for Timra.
  • In Toronto, the Maple Leafs took to the ice to practice at BMO Field today in preparation for their Centennial Classic tomorrow against the Red Wings. When they got back into the dressing room, they were shocked to find out that they’d be sharing it with the alumni roster for today’s game. With Mitch Marner seated beside Doug Gilmour, Auston Matthews beside Wendel Clark and Morgan Rielly sidled up beside Borje Salming, it was a symbolic passing of the torch from the old legends to the new. Marner, a Toronto native, couldn’t contain his excitement, and took a stick around the room for an autograph session. The alumni game starts at 11am.

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